证券研究报告 | 策略定期报告 2025 年 04 月 24 日 生鲜乳价格上行，3 月金属成形机床产量同比增幅扩大 《1-2 月社会消费品零售同比增 幅 扩 大 ， 存 储 器 价 格 上 行 （0319）》 《2月制造业PMI重回荣枯线以 上，重卡销量同比由负转正 （0305）》 定期报告 ——行业景气观察（0424） 本周景气度改善的方向主要在部分资源品、中游制造和消费服务领域。上游资源 品中，钢材、金属价格上涨；中游制造领域，3 月包装专用设备、金属成形机床 产量三个月滚动同比增幅扩大。信息技术中，DDRM 价格上行，3 月 LCD 出货 量三个月滚动同比增幅收窄。消费服务领域，生鲜乳、食糖价格上行，生猪盈利 改善。目前已披露一季报中农牧、军工、非银、电子等行业盈利增速中位数水平 较高。推荐景气较高或有改善的有色、食品饮料、专用/通用设备、半导体等。 相关报告 《3 月社零总额当月同比增幅扩 大 ， 智 能 手 机 产 量 同 比 转 正 （0416）》 《2 月全球半导体销售额同比增 幅收窄，食糖价格指数上行 （0409）》 《3 月制造业 PMI 环比上行，2 月主要企业工程机械销售普遍 改善（0 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company has shown rapid revenue and profit growth in 2024 and Q1 2025, driven by strong demand for 400G and 800G optical modules, with 2024 revenue reaching 23.862 billion yuan (up 122.64% YoY) and net profit of 5.171 billion yuan (up 137.93% YoY) [1][6] - The gross margin has been improving, reaching 33.81% in 2024 and 36.70% in Q1 2025, attributed to a higher proportion of high-end products and cost reductions [6][8] - The company is expected to see significant deployment of 800G products in 2025, with 1.6T products gradually ramping up in Q2 and Q3 [1][2] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 238.62 billion yuan and a net profit of 51.71 billion yuan, with a significant increase in operating cash flow, which reached 31.65 billion yuan (up 66.81% YoY) [6][8] - The company’s overseas revenue in 2024 was 20.716 billion yuan (up 128.32% YoY), indicating strong international market performance [2][6] - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 82.77 billion yuan, 101.34 billion yuan, and 118.14 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 11.1, 9.1, and 7.8 [6][7] Market Conditions - The domestic market is experiencing increased demand for 400G optical modules, with several CSP customers showing significant growth in bidding volumes [2][6] - The supply side is expected to improve as overseas optical chip manufacturers expand capacity, alleviating the tight supply of EML chips [2][6] - The company has established a comprehensive overseas delivery capability and has made arrangements to mitigate potential trade friction impacts [6][8]

证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 04 月 24 日 太阳纸业（002078.SZ） 业绩稳健增长，林浆纸一体化优势凸显 消费品/轻工纺服 ❑ 风险提示：原材料价格波动，产能投放不及预期，需求恢复不及预期。 强烈推荐（维持） 相关报告 1、《太阳纸业（002078）—需求回暖 业绩稳步增长，一体化战略加速推进》 2024-08-31 2、《太阳纸业（002078）—需求回暖 盈利修复加速，浆纸稳步上调支撑景 气度》2023-10-30 3、《太阳纸业（002078）—深化"林 浆一体化"布局，中长期盈利有望复 苏》2023-08-26 | | | liuli14@cmschina.com.cn 王月 S1090523080003 目标估值：NA 当前股价：14.02 元 基础数据 | 总股本（百万股） | 2795 | | --- | --- | | 已上市流通股（百万股） | 2765 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 39.2 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 38.8 | | 每股净资产（MRQ） | 10.2 | | ROE（TTM） | 10.8 | | 资产负债率 | 45.4% | | 主 ...

凯莱英发布 2025 年一季报：2025 年一季度公司实现营业收入 15.41 亿元 （yoy+10.10%），实现归母净利润 3.27 亿元（yoy+15.83%），实现扣非归 母净利润 3.05 亿元（yoy+20.14%）。 财务数据与估值 证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 04 月 24 日 凯莱英（002821.SZ） 净利率水平改善，新兴业务高速增长 消费品/生物医药 | 会计年度 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 7825 | 5805 | 6617 | 7627 | 8859 | | 同比增长 | -24% | -26% | 14% | 15% | 16% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 2571 | 1079 | 1237 | 1455 | 1810 | | 同比增长 | -31% | -58% | 15% | 18% | 24% | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 2269 | 949 | 1078 | 1265 | 1569 | ...

证券研究报告 | 行业简评报告 2025 年 04 月 24 日 工业市场广泛复苏，本地化供应有望加速 25Q1 公司营收 40.69 亿美元，同比+11.1%/环比+1.5%，略超指引上限 （37.4-40.6 亿美元）；毛利率 56.84%，同比-0.4pct/环比-0.9pct；净利润 11.79 亿美元，同比+6.7%/环比-2.2%。EPS 为 1.28 美元，超指引预期（0.94-1.16 美元）。25Q1 库存为 47 亿美元，环比增加 1.6 亿美元，库存周转天数为 240 天，环比减少 1 天。 2、25Q1 模拟同环比均实现增长，工业市场广泛复苏。 1）分产品类型：25Q1 模拟产品收入为 32.1 亿美元，同比+13.2%/环比+1.1%； 嵌入式处理业务部门收入 6.47 亿美元，同比-0.8%/环比+5.5%；其他业务部门 收入 2.12 亿美元，同比+22.5%/环比-3.6%。2）分终端市场：终端市场持续复 苏，工业在各行业和地区呈广泛复苏态势，所有终端市场客户库存均处在低位， 工业市场连续七个季度环比下滑后实现高个位数环比增长，汽车环比增长低个 位数，个人电子产品市场环比下降约 ...

证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 04 月 23 日 仲景食品（300908.SZ） 基础数据 | 总股本（百万股） | 146 | | --- | --- | | 已上市流通股（百万股） | 124 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 4.4 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 3.7 | | 每股净资产（MRQ） | 12.1 | | ROE（TTM） | 9.8 | | 资产负债率 | 13.0% | | 主要股东 河南省宛西控股股份有限公 | | | 主要股东持股比例 | 39.43司% | 股价表现 收入平稳过渡，费用拖累盈利 消费品/食品饮料 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 0 10 7 相对表现 4 15 -1 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 Apr/24 Aug/24 Dec/24 Mar/25 (%) 仲景食品 沪深300 公司 Q1 收入/归母净利润同比+1.06%/-4.81%，结合 Q4 和 Q1 看收入表现平 稳，利润受费用率提升影响下滑。25 年公司收入端加大线下渠道铺货，成本 端平稳，部分原材料价格有向下趋势，同时线上投入更高效，预计利润端增速 快于收入。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Add" for China General Nuclear Power Corporation (003816.SZ) [3] Core Views - The company's Q1 2025 revenue reached 20.028 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.41%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.026 billion yuan, a decrease of 16.07% [1] - The decline in profit is primarily attributed to increased participation in market-based electricity trading, falling electricity prices, and R&D progress [6] - The company has seen growth in electricity generation from its subsidiaries, but overall profit has been impacted by the downward trend in electricity prices [6] - As of March 2025, the company manages 16 nuclear power units under construction or approved for construction, with a total installed capacity of 19.406 million kilowatts [6] - The company is expected to commission 1-2 units annually from 2025 to 2030, with the Huizhou Unit 1 expected to be operational this year [6] Financial Data Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 82.549 billion yuan, with a slight decrease to 85.880 billion yuan in 2025, followed by a recovery to 89.903 billion yuan in 2026 and 96.724 billion yuan in 2027 [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to decline to 10.042 billion yuan in 2025, before increasing to 10.658 billion yuan in 2026 and 11.918 billion yuan in 2027 [2] - The company's PE ratio is projected to be 18.0x in 2025, decreasing to 15.2x by 2027 [2] Performance Metrics - The company's operating profit for 2025 is estimated at 20.427 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 7% [9] - The gross profit margin is expected to decline from 36.0% in 2023 to 32.4% in 2025, with a slight recovery to 33.6% by 2027 [9] - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to decrease from 9.7% in 2023 to 8.2% in 2025, before recovering to 8.9% in 2027 [9]

证券研究报告|公司点评报告 2025 年 04 月 24 日 蒙娜丽莎（002918.SZ） 行业竞争压力仍存，经销渠道持续提升 中游制造/建材 公司 2024 年实现营业总收入 46.31 亿元，同比下降 21.79%；归母净利润 1.25 亿元，同比下降 53.06%；扣非后归母净利润 1.03 亿元，同比下滑 57.53%；基 本 EPS 为 0.31 元/股，同比减少 51.56%；加权平均 ROE 为 3.64%，同比下降 4.31pct。 强烈推荐（维持） 目标估值：NA 当前股价：8.74 元 基础数据 | 总股本（百万股） | 415 | | --- | --- | | 已上市流通股（百万股） | 219 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 3.6 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 1.9 | | 每股净资产（MRQ） | 8.0 | | ROE（TTM） | 3.7 | | 资产负债率 | 52.6% | | 主要股东 | 萧华 | 股价表现 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 -8 0 -8 相对表现 -5 5 -16 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 Apr/24 ...

注塑机业务继续领跑行业，新品投产，产能稳健扩张 中游制造/机械 伊之密 2024 年业绩稳健增长，一季度业绩上涨状态延续。分业务来看，注塑机 作为公司核心主业，支撑了全年业绩增长，且公司作为注塑机龙头，收入表现 继续优于行业。分下游市场来看，汽车和 3C 依然是最大的两项需求来源。在 注塑、压铸机均不断推出新品，开拓海内外市场的背景下，公司产能也逐步释 放，后续扩产节奏相对稳健。继续维持"强烈推荐"的评级。 强烈推荐（维持） 目标估值：NA 当前股价：20.3 元 证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 04 月 23 日 伊之密（300415.SZ） 基础数据 | 总股本（百万股） | 469 | | --- | --- | | 已上市流通股（百万股） | 453 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 9.5 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 9.2 | | 每股净资产（MRQ） | 6.6 | | ROE（TTM） | 20.1 | | 资产负债率 | 57.1% | | 主要股东 | 佳卓控股有限公司 | | 主要股东持股比例 | 29.32% | 股价表现 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 -19 -12 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company demonstrates steady revenue growth, with a 2024 revenue of 40.73 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.99% [7] - The integrated operation of forestry, pulp, and paper is highlighted as a competitive advantage, positioning the company as a leader in the industry [7] - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in demand and profitability, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 of 3.51 billion yuan, 3.99 billion yuan, and 4.46 billion yuan respectively, indicating year-on-year growth of 13%, 14%, and 12% [7][8] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a net profit of 3.10 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.50% year-on-year [7] - The company’s paper sales reached 7.51 million tons in 2024, marking a 12.76% increase year-on-year, while pulp sales remained stable at 1.46 million tons [7] - The report projects total revenue growth of 8% for 2025 and 2026, with a slight decrease to 6% in 2027 [8] Financial Data and Valuation - The company’s total assets are projected to reach 53.03 billion yuan by 2025, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 41.3% [10] - The report provides a forecast for earnings per share (EPS) to increase from 1.11 yuan in 2024 to 1.60 yuan in 2027 [8] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is expected to decrease from 12.6 in 2024 to 8.8 in 2027, indicating improved valuation attractiveness over time [8]