证券研究报告 | 行业点评报告 2025 年 09 月 08 日 百草枯、丙烯酸甲酯价格涨幅居前，建议关注草甘膦行业 招商化工行业周报 2025 年 9 月第 1 周 周期/化工 本报告阐述了基础化工板块一周行情走势、产品价格及价差变化、重点推荐子 行业及公司。 板块整体走势 9 月第 1 周化工板块（申万）下跌 1.36%，上证 A 指下跌 1.17%，板块落后 大盘 0.19 个百分点。涨幅排名前 5 的个股分别为：大东南（+27.09%），领 湃科技（+19.28%），天赐材料（+18.41%），同大股份（+14.64%），丰元 股份（+13.87%）；跌幅排名前 5 的个股分别为：安利股份（-13.86%），广 信材料（-12.67%），再升科技（-11.58%），东材科技（-10.61%），云南 能投（-10.47%）。此外，本周化工板块（申万）动态 PE 为 25.10 倍，高于 2015 年来的平均 PE 11.42%。 细分子行业走势 9 月第 1 周化工行业 11 个子行业上涨，21 个子行业下跌。上涨子行业前五是： 钾肥（+6.03%），改性塑料（+3.92%），其他化学制品（+3.89% ...

证券研究报告 | 金融工程 2025 年 09 月 08 日 300ESG 选股策略组合八月超额收益 3% ESG 选股策略 2025 年 9 月定期跟踪报告 风险提示：本报告结果通过历史数据统计、建模和测算完成，在政策、市场环境 发生变化时模型存在失效的风险；本报告所提及个股仅表示与相关主题有一定关 联性，不构成任何投资建议。 任瞳 S1090519080004 rentong@cmschina.com.cn 麦元勋 S1090519090003 maiyuanxun@cmschina.com.cn 李世杰 S1090524070006 lishijie1@cmschina.com.cn 专题报告 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 ❑ 在当前传统基本面因子日渐拥挤的环境下，作为近年备受关注的一种另类因 子，ESG 因子能够从非基本面的角度评价上市公司在环境、社会、治理三方面 的综合表现，有望成为 A 股市场新的 Alpha 来源； ❑ 根据我们过去的研究，ESG 评价得分能够通过改善上市公司盈利现金流、特质 性风险以及资本成本三条路径，对股票未来估值产生显著的正向影响； ❑ 基于 ESG 综合评价指标，招商证券量化研 ...

证券研究报告 | 债券专题报告 2025 年 9 月 8 日 中短端信用债相对占优 ——信用债策略周报 一、信用利差整体表现分化，短端利差大多收窄 上周各期限信用债收益率大多下行，信用利差整体表现分化，长久期利差大多 走阔，中短久期利差大多收窄。3 年期各评级中短票利差全周累计收窄 2bp 以 内，7 年期各评级中短票利差走阔约 0.4bp。分品种来看，二永债利差大多收窄， 银行永续债短端利差收窄幅度大于其他信用品种：1）城投债：上周城投债信用 利差表现分化。7 年期 AA 级城投债利差走阔幅度最大，约 3bp；1 年期各评级 和 5 年期中高评级城投债利差均收窄；2）金融债：上周二永债信用利差大多收 窄。其中 1 年期和 3 年期二永债利差收窄幅度较大，5 年期和 7 年期各评级二 永债利差表现分化，其中 7 年期高评级二永债利差走阔幅度较大，约 1.3bp。 二、信用债二级成交情况：整体换手率有所回落，各品种 TKN 占比大多下降 上周信用债整体换手率从前周的 1.93%降至 1.63%（降幅 0.3 个百分点），反 映市场交投活跃度有所走弱。与过去三年相比，2025 年换手率处于中等水平， 近期呈现下行 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [1][3]. Core Insights - The company's short-term innovation business is driving performance beyond expectations, with new AI glasses positioning the company in the AI hardware market, catalyzing a valuation reassessment [1]. - The long-term transformation towards proprietary brands and continuous optimization of profit structure is embraced, aiming to create a new growth curve through AI [1]. - The company has achieved significant growth in its innovative business segment, with a revenue increase of 39.16% year-on-year in H1 2025, becoming a core growth engine [8]. - The AI strategy has been fully implemented, with a diverse product matrix covering "AI + Office," "AI + Education," "AI + Healthcare," and "AI + Entertainment," opening up long-term development opportunities [8]. - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 10.6 billion and 12.4 billion yuan in 2025 and 2026, respectively, corresponding to a current PE of approximately 15x and 13x [8]. Financial Data Summary - In H1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 69.35 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.06%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.84 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.03% [8]. - The company’s traditional business profitability is steadily improving, with the smart interactive display business revenue growing by 9.81% year-on-year in H1 2025 [8]. - The company’s innovative business segment has shown remarkable performance, with KTC brand sales on Amazon Prime Day increasing by 381% year-on-year [8]. - The financial forecast indicates total revenue growth from 13,447 million yuan in 2023 to 20,785 million yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 9% [9][18].

证券研究报告 | 宏观定期报告 2025 年 09 月 07 日 关注多国国内政治不确定性 ——国际时政周评 上周回顾：上合组织峰会；中国人民抗日战争胜利纪念日；乌克兰战后安全保 障进展；美国关税进展；日本首相辞职。 未来一周：法国国民议会投票；美国国内政治及关税政策；地缘冲突。 | | | | 国际时政日历 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri | Sat | Sun | | 9/1 | 9/2 | 9/3 | ald | વીર્ટ | ale | 9/7 | | 上合组织峰会于天津 | | 中国人民抗日战争胜 | 当地时间9月4日欧洲 | 当地时间9月4日特朗 | 特朗普此前威胁的俄 | 日本首相石破茂宣布 | | | | 利纪念日 | 国家会晤于法国,26 | 普签令履行美日关税 | 乌直接会晤截止期 | 辞去自民党总裁职务 | | | | | 国承诺将"在停火或 | 协议 | | | | | | | 和平协议框架下"向 | | | | | | | | 乌克兰部署军队 | | ...

Domestic Insights - The August PMI manufacturing price index increased, likely due to the upward shift in upstream commodity prices, which may hinder future corporate profit recovery[2] - The current domestic market is in a new bull market phase, with wealth effects expected to boost service consumption as a highlight for Q4 economic growth[2] - September is a critical observation window for RMB appreciation, especially if US-China negotiations show substantial progress[2] Overseas Insights - In August, non-farm payrolls added only 22,000 jobs, significantly below the expected 75,000, indicating a moderate slowdown in employment rather than a rapid decline[15] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in August from 4.2% in July, reinforcing concerns about employment risks discussed at the Jackson Hole meeting[15] - The weak non-farm data suggests the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates by 75 basis points this year, with weak dollar trading likely to continue in the coming weeks[15] Liquidity and Market Trends - The overall liquidity tightened this week, with the benchmark interest rate down approximately 7.412 basis points[19] - The average daily transaction volume in the interbank pledged repo market increased by about 2417.16 billion CNY, reaching 73138.95 billion CNY[20] - Government bond issuance pressure decreased, with a net repayment of 1184.54 billion CNY and a planned issuance of 8376.7 billion CNY next week[21] Asset Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.18% this week, while the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.83%[39] - Gold prices showed an upward trend, while international crude oil prices experienced a downward trend[37] - The US 10-year Treasury yield declined, reflecting a mixed performance in European bond yields[39]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the automotive industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [5]. Core Insights - The automotive industry experienced an overall decline of 1.1% during the week from August 31 to September 6, with various companies reporting their August sales figures [1][2]. - Great Wall Motors achieved its highest-ever August sales, selling 115,558 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 22.33% [26]. - New energy vehicle sales for Great Wall reached 37,495 units, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 50.92% [26]. - Leap Motor delivered 57,066 units, marking an impressive year-on-year growth of over 88%, maintaining its position as the top-selling new force brand for six consecutive months [25]. - Xpeng Motors and NIO also reported substantial growth in deliveries, with Xpeng delivering 37,709 units (up 169% year-on-year) and NIO delivering 31,305 units (up 55.2% year-on-year) [25]. Market Performance Overview - The automotive sector's secondary market saw a comprehensive decline, with the passenger vehicle segment experiencing the most significant drop of 2.3% [12]. - The commercial vehicle segment had the smallest decline at 0.1% [12]. - Among the automotive industry’s tertiary sectors, the commercial passenger vehicle and automotive dealership segments saw increases of 5.1% and 2.9%, respectively [12]. Individual Stock Performance - The automotive sector saw a majority of stocks decline, with notable gainers including Pateo (+44.5%), Huayang Racing (+37.8%), and Tianpu Co. (+33.1%) [3][16]. - Conversely, stocks such as Construction Industry (-25.5%), Chengfei Integration (-22.7%), and Hunan Tianyan (-20.8%) faced significant declines [3][16]. Recent Industry Developments - The report highlights the launch of several new models, including the Geely Galaxy M9, which is set to be released on September 17, 2025, with a pre-sale price range of 193,800 to 258,800 yuan [27]. - Tesla's Model Y L has received a strong market response, with daily orders nearing 10,000 units since its launch on August 19 [28]. - The report also notes advancements in robotics within the automotive sector, with Tesla's Optimus V3 robot being highlighted as a significant development [29].

Group 1 - The report indicates that the 10-year government bond yield slightly declined to 1.83% as of September 5, down about 1 basis point from August 29, influenced by market concerns regarding the "anti-involution" policy and banks adjusting their balance sheets at the end of the quarter [1][2] - The bond market is currently in a weak oscillating environment, with a notable "see-saw" effect between stocks and bonds driven by rising inflation expectations. If the stock market continues to strengthen, the 10-year government bond yield is likely to undergo further repricing [2][3] - The investment strategy in the bond market should focus on defensive tactics, employing a barbell strategy. Investors are advised to consider short-term credit bonds with moderate duration due to the volatility in long-term rates [3] Group 2 - The report highlights that the domestic bond market is showing stronger credit performance compared to interest rates, with longer maturities outperforming shorter ones. Specifically, 5Y and 30Y government bonds have shown relatively strong performance [8] - The report notes that the high-frequency economic activity index in China is currently at 1.04, indicating a seasonal decline, while the operating rates of various industries such as steel and automotive are showing mixed trends [18][36] - The report provides insights into the monetary and liquidity conditions, indicating that the central bank implemented a net withdrawal of 1,204.7 billion yuan through open market operations from September 1 to September 5, reflecting a stable overall funding environment [61]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-ferrous metal sector, particularly under the current easing cycle, with a focus on resource stocks [2][3]. Core Insights - Recent weak employment data in the US has led to increased expectations for interest rate cuts, influencing the metal market. Attention is drawn to upcoming inflation data from China and the US to avoid unexpected market disruptions [2]. - Gold has shown strong performance, driven by monetary easing, loss of Federal Reserve independence, and rising European risks, with expectations for continued price increases following a technical breakout [2]. - The report highlights that many metal prices are expected to strengthen throughout the year, with continuous upward revisions in company EPS forecasts. Key metals to watch include copper, gold, rare earths, tungsten, antimony, cobalt, and aluminum [2][3]. Industry Overview - The non-ferrous metal sector has shown a significant increase in stock performance, with the industry index rising by 2.12% this week, ranking third among sectors. Precious metals led with a 10.73% increase, followed by energy metals at 5.86% [4]. - The report notes that the total market capitalization of the sector is approximately 536.72 billion, with 235 listed companies [3]. - The report emphasizes the strong performance of tungsten prices due to supply constraints and robust demand, particularly in military and renewable energy sectors [7]. Key Metal Performance - Copper: As of September 4, copper inventories in major regions increased by 0.35 million tons to 1.406 million tons, while LME inventories decreased by 950 tons to 158,000 tons. The report maintains a positive long-term outlook for copper prices, citing historical low valuations [4][5]. - Aluminum: Domestic aluminum ingot inventories reached 626,000 tons, with a slight increase. The report suggests that while the aluminum market is under pressure, long-term fundamentals remain positive [5]. - Precious Metals: Gold and silver prices have increased, with gold reaching $3,587 per ounce, up 4.0% week-on-week. The report anticipates continued strength in precious metal prices due to dovish signals from the Federal Reserve [7]. Strategic Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies involved in copper, aluminum, tungsten, and rare earths, highlighting specific firms such as Zijin Mining, China Nonferrous Mining, and Jiangxi Copper [4][5]. - For precious metals, companies like Lingbao Gold and Shandong Gold are noted as key players to watch [7]. - In the lithium and cobalt sectors, the report suggests monitoring companies like Huayou Cobalt and Luoyang Molybdenum due to expected supply tightness and price increases [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" investment rating for the company [3][7]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 1.818 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 5.52%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 8.50% to 128 million yuan [1][7]. - The pharmaceutical industry continues to grow steadily, with the company's pharmaceutical segment generating a revenue of 1.005 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.4% [7]. - The company is focusing on high-intensity R&D, with R&D expenses reaching 104 million yuan in the first half of 2025, maintaining a high investment pace [7]. Financial Performance - The company reported a gross margin of 49.97% in the first half of 2025, an increase of 4.80 percentage points year-on-year, driven by a higher proportion of high-margin business and a decrease in raw material costs [7]. - The net profit margin improved to 9.57%, up 1.82 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a clear recovery in profitability [7]. - The company expects net profits for 2025-2026 to be 292 million yuan, 366 million yuan, and 437 million yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 27%, 25%, and 19% respectively [7][10]. Financial Data and Valuation - The total revenue forecast for 2025 is 3.613 billion yuan, with a projected net profit of 292 million yuan [2][9]. - The company’s PE ratio is projected to be 15.6 for 2025, decreasing to 10.4 by 2027 [2][10]. - The company’s total assets are expected to reach 4.735 billion yuan by 2025, with total liabilities of 1.375 billion yuan [8][10].