证券研究报告 铜业弹性表 ——2025年5月更新 分析师 沈皓俊 研究助理 苏湘涵 邮箱 shenhaojun@stocke.com.cn 邮箱 suxianghan@stocke.com.cn 证书编号 S1230523080011 01 铜业弹性表 2025年5月20日 行业评级：看好 | 添加标题 | | --- | 资料来源：公司年报，公司公告，公司公众号，浙商证券研究所。注： 2 2025-2027年产量数据为预测值，存在预测偏差风险。江西铜业 统计公司自有矿数据；云南铜业统计并表产量口径；金诚信2024-2026年产量中未统计Lubambe铜矿（因公告矿山处于技改阶段）。 02 风险提示 3 添加标题 数据预测偏差风险； 公司项目推进不及预期； 铜价上涨不及预期等。 行业评级与免责声明 加标题点击此处添加标题点击此处添加 添加标题添加标题点击此处添加标题 添加标题 95% 1、看好 ：行业指数相对于沪深300指数表现＋10%以上； 2、中性 ：行业指数相对于沪深300指数表现－10%～＋10%以上； 3、看淡 ：行业指数相对于沪深300指数表现－10%以下。 行业的投资评级 以报告日后的6个月内， ...

证券研究报告 | 行业点评 | 通信 5G-A 正式商用，有望提升用户价值 ——电信运营商行业点评报告 投资要点 ❑ 5G-A 开启商用，是对 5G 的增强版本 5G-A（5G-Advanced），是 5G 的网络能力升级版本，是由 3GPP（第三代合作伙 伴计划）组织界定的基于 R18 版本协议的 5G 标准第二阶段，也是 5G 向 6G 过 渡的必经阶段。和 5G 相比，5G-A 在容量、速率、时延、定位、可靠性等方面 实现了大幅提升，可以带来更快、更优质的通信体验。 三大运营商正式开启 5G-A 商用： 中国移动：2025 年 5 月 15 日，中国移动正式推出"三大回馈计划"，其中面向 全球通用户推出 5GA 尊享套餐，套餐资费档位 199-999 元/月不等。用户规模方 面，中国移动计划今年发展 5000 万 5G-A 用户。 中国电信于 5 月 17 日宣布，5G-A 套餐正式商用，根据上海电信发布，三款 5G- A 套餐价格档位分别为 199 元、299 元、399 元，同时推出 5G-A 加速包，包括 20 元/月（10GB/月）、30 元/月（15GB/月）。 中国联通发布的 5G-A 套餐 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The reduction in deposit rates is greater than expected, with the average reduction being 16 basis points, which is higher than the 10 basis points reduction in loan rates, indicating a clear regulatory support for interest margins [5] - The phenomenon of deposit disintermediation is expected to persist long-term, although the degree of disintermediation is weaker than last year due to manual interest compensation governance [2] - The average annualized yield for cash management products is 1.46%, which is higher than the actual interest rate for state-owned banks' 1-year deposits by 36 basis points, suggesting that wealth management products still have a comparative advantage over deposits [2] Summary by Sections Deposit Rate Adjustments - As of May 20, 2025, the LPR for 1-year and 5-year has been lowered by 10 basis points to 3.0% and 3.5% respectively, with significant reductions in various deposit rates across state-owned banks and China Merchants Bank [5] - The new rates for different deposit types include a reduction in the current deposit rate to 0.05% and a 15 basis point reduction for 3-month, 6-month, and 1-year fixed deposits [5] Market Impact - Short-term market expectations for interest rate cuts have been fully priced in, with limited immediate impact on bond market prices. However, in the medium to long term, the reduction in deposit rates may improve funding costs and lead to a decline in bond yields [3] - The improvement in funding costs is expected to enhance the ticket yield for banks, as previous constraints on allocation due to funding costs are alleviated [3] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that bank stocks are not in the latter stage but rather at the beginning of a long cycle, with regulatory support for interest margins and declining rates benefiting dividend stocks [6] - Key recommendations include city commercial banks such as Jiangsu Bank and Chengdu Bank, as well as dividend-paying banks like Agricultural Bank and China CITIC Bank [6]

横河精密(300539) 报告日期：2025 年 05 月 20 日 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 塑料 2025Q1 归母净利润同比增长 39%；汽车智能座舱、轻量化将驱动业绩高增 ——横河精密点评报告 事件：4 月 22、29 日盘后，公司分别发布 2024 年年度报告、2025 年一季度报 告。 ❑ 2024 年公司归母净利润同比增长 12%，2025Q1 同比增长 38% 2024 年公司实现营业收入 7.51 亿元，同比增长 10.83%；归母净利润 3800 万元， 同比增长 12.18%；扣非归母净利润 3511 万元，同比增长 15.61%。其中，智能家 电精密零组件 4.50 亿元（占比 59.91%），同比增长 7.17%；智能座舱精密组件 8361 万元（占比 11.13%），同比增长 73.01%；汽车轻量化内外饰件 1.19 亿元 （占比 15.96%），同比增长 4.84%；金属零部件 2607 万元（占 3.47%），同比下降 11.32%；精密模具 4814 万元，同比增长 7.85%。 2025Q1 公司实现营业收入 2.03 亿元，同比增长 22.04%；归母净利润 11 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company experienced a revenue of 1.83 billion yuan in 2024, a year-over-year decrease of 1.7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 470 million yuan, down 23.4% year-over-year. In Q1 2025, the revenue was 480 million yuan, a decrease of 1.9% year-over-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 140 million yuan, an increase of 2.7% year-over-year [1][2] Performance Summary - In 2024, the company faced pressure on performance due to a slowdown in bidding and fluctuations in demand for new energy testing. However, the company is in a strategic upgrade phase, with ongoing construction projects expected to enhance long-term growth potential. The company is transitioning from a flat detector supplier to a comprehensive imaging solution provider, indicating strong medium to long-term investment value [2][4] - The company launched new medical products, including a 64-row medical CT detector module, and high-end DSA detectors have entered mass production. The new core component business generated revenue of 126 million yuan in 2024, a year-over-year increase of 45.5%, while the comprehensive solutions and technical services business achieved revenue of 86.8 million yuan, a year-over-year increase of 226.3% [2][3] Growth Potential - The company has established overseas sales or customer service platforms in various countries, including the USA, Germany, South Korea, India, Japan, Mexico, Pakistan, Brazil, and South Africa. The company has seen positive growth from major customers, with dental products achieving small batch sales overseas and industrial core components performing well, generating nearly 100 million yuan in revenue [4] - The company is expected to see a gradual recovery in gross margin and a decrease in operating expense ratios as low-margin new products scale up. The operating cash flow for 2024 was 360 million yuan, a year-over-year increase of 5.9% [9][10] Financial Forecasts - The company forecasts revenues of 2.23 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-over-year growth of 22.01%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 599 million yuan, an increase of 28.67% year-over-year. The expected EPS for 2025 is 4.18 yuan, with a current price-to-earnings ratio of 29.7 times [10][12]

证券研究报告 | 宏观深度报告 | 中国宏观 4 月经济：生产增势偏强，经济逆风飞扬 ——2025 年 4 月宏观数据解读 核心观点 我们认为，4 月经济回稳势头较好，供给端修复斜率显著高于需求端核心在于 工业稳增长政策的发力，4 月全国规模以上工业增加值同比增长 6.1%，但 4 月以来关税政策调整或在中长期维度形成不确定性预期，也可能通过信心渠 道使得总需求有所放缓，量价总体延续背离。我们预计，二季度经济相较一 季度将有所回落，全年可能呈现前高中低后稳的 U 型走势，物价回升节奏相 对较慢且斜率或相对平坦。 大类资产方面，短期内权益市场以低波红利为代表的防御板块或相对占优。 债券市场方面，预计 2025 年货币政策维持宽松基调，与财政政策、产业政策 形成政策合力，在这一过程中利率或震荡向下，我们预计仍保留 50BP 降准， 以及 20BP 降息的空间。 ❑ 工业、服务业生产均保持积极态势 4 月份，全国规模以上工业增加值同比增长 6.1%，高于市场预期与我们预期。从 环比看，4 月份规模以上工业增加值比上月增长 0.22%。一方面，大规模设备更新 和消费品以旧换新等政策加力扩围实施，从内需侧带动相关行业生 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company experienced a revenue of 1.83 billion yuan in 2024, a year-over-year decrease of 1.7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 470 million yuan, down 23.4% year-over-year. In Q1 2025, the revenue was 480 million yuan, a decrease of 1.9% year-over-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 140 million yuan, an increase of 2.7% year-over-year [1][2] - The company is currently in a strategic upgrade phase, with ongoing construction projects and product line expansions. Although short-term pressures from fixed asset depreciation may affect profits, the long-term outlook remains positive due to the rapid growth in the sectors the company operates in [2][4] - New product launches, such as the 64-row medical CT detector module and high-end DSA detectors, have entered mass production. The company has also made significant progress in developing key technologies related to photon counting detectors [2][3] Performance Analysis - In 2024, the company's gross margin was 50.1%, a decrease of 7.7 percentage points year-over-year, and the net profit margin was 24.6%, down 7.9 percentage points year-over-year. The changes in product mix are believed to be the main reason for this decline [9] - The operating cash flow for 2024 was 360 million yuan, a year-over-year increase of 5.9%, with the net cash flow from operating activities accounting for 94.2% of net operating income, showing a significant improvement [9] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve earnings per share (EPS) of 4.18 yuan, 5.19 yuan, and 6.30 yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively. The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 29.7 times for 2025. Given the company's successful expansion of new products and pipelines, the long-term growth potential is considered substantial [10][12]

Market Overview - On May 19, the Shanghai Composite Index remained unchanged, while the CSI 300 decreased by 0.31%. The STAR Market 50 increased by 0%, the CSI 1000 rose by 0.45%, the ChiNext Index fell by 0.33%, and the Hang Seng Index decreased by 0.05% [4] - The best-performing sectors on May 19 were comprehensive (+1.99%), environmental protection (+1.87%), real estate (+1.75%), national defense and military industry (+1.05%), and social services (+1.02%). The worst-performing sectors included food and beverage (-0.9%), automotive (-0.33%), banking (-0.32%), non-ferrous metals (-0.25%), and telecommunications (-0.23%) [4] - The total trading volume for the entire A-share market on May 19 was 1,118.9 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 8.459 billion Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [4] Important Insights - The report emphasizes the need to focus on commercial assets in 2025 due to the current cycle being different from previous ones, necessitating policy-driven consumption to restore valuations for consumer-related companies [5] - The value of commercial assets lies in their ability to generate stable cash flows, which is particularly prominent in weaker economic conditions [5] - Investment opportunities are identified where the valuation of shopping malls can be compared to the long-term bond yields. If a commercial company's dividend yield exceeds the long-term bond yield, it indicates that the market may undervalue its perpetual cash flow attributes, suggesting potential for valuation recovery. The report suggests that the minimum valuation for shopping mall enterprises should be compared to the yield of U.S. 10-year Treasury bonds, with PE ratios for companies with dividend yields higher than China's 10-year Treasury yield expected to exceed 10-15x, indicating significant room for valuation improvement [5] - Catalysts for investment include the introduction of consumption-related stimulus policies and rental income exceeding expectations [5]

在手订单饱满，海洋板块有望实现业绩释放 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 通信设备 ——中天科技更新报告 投资要点 ❑ 24 年毛利率承压，25Q1 扣非归母净利润同比增长 24 年公司实现营收 480.55 亿元，同比+6.63%；归母净利润为 28.38 亿元，同比- 8.94%；扣非归母净利润 25.45 亿元，同比-4.78%。主要原因为：营收端，光通 信板块营收 80.94 亿元，同比-11.19%，海洋系列和新能源板块分别同比小幅下滑 2.59%/2.85%；利润端，光通信板块/海洋系列/新能源板块毛利率分别同比下降 1.98pct/2.20pct/4.03pct，综合毛利率为 14.39%，同比-1.83pct。 25Q1 公司实现营收 97.56 亿元，同比+18.37%；归母净利润 6.28 亿元，同比- 1.33%；扣非归母净利润 5.97 亿元，同比+20.45%。 ❑ 能源网络：在手订单饱满，海洋板块实现多维突破 公司在手订单充足，截至 2025 年 4 月 23 日，公司能源网络领域在手订单约 312 亿元，其中海洋系列约 134 亿元，电网建设约 140 亿元，新能源约 38 亿元。 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company is a leading brand in the snack food sector, with a clear growth path for its major products. Fish products provide a stable foundation, while quail eggs are expected to create a second growth curve. Potential categories like tofu and konjac have significant growth opportunities, and the expansion into new channels in 2025 is anticipated to drive revenue and profit beyond expectations [1][2][4] Summary by Sections Major Product Growth - The company's major product, deep-sea fish, has shown double-digit growth in Q1 2025 despite a high base from the previous year. The company expects rapid growth in fish products due to channel deepening and breakthroughs in new high-potential channels [2] - Quail eggs are positioned as the second growth curve, with ongoing product upgrades such as selenium-enriched and soft-boiled quail eggs. The company aims to enhance profitability and gross margin through differentiated products and brand innovation [2] - Potential products like tofu and konjac are in a rapid cultivation phase, with innovative offerings like short-shelf-life tofu and new flavors of konjac sauce expected to drive significant growth [2] New Channel Expansion - The company has a clear omnichannel strategy, with successful offline channel expansion and stable growth in distribution channels. High-potential channels like membership-based supermarkets are progressing well, and the snack wholesale channel is expected to maintain rapid growth in 2025 [3] - Although online channels saw a decline in Q1 2025, they are entering a recovery phase, with expectations for future growth. The entry into new high-potential channels is expected to further enhance profitability [3] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The market anticipates the company will achieve mid-double-digit revenue growth in 2025, with profit growth lagging behind revenue due to adjustments in online channels and competition in the quail egg sector. However, the company is expected to exceed market expectations for revenue and slightly improve net profit margins [4] - The revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 28.9 billion, 34.34 billion, and 41.04 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 19.82%, 18.83%, and 19.51% respectively. Net profit is projected to be 3.43 billion, 4.18 billion, and 5.15 billion yuan, with growth rates of 17.85%, 21.82%, and 23.18% respectively [11]