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国电电力:事件点评电价承压但成本改善,静待下游用电需求恢复-20250522
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-05-22 00:20
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 179.18 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 1.00% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 75.28% to 9.83 billion yuan [17][11] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 39.81 billion yuan, down 12.61% year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.81 billion yuan, up 1.45% [17] - The company is experiencing pressure on electricity prices but is seeing improvements in costs, awaiting recovery in downstream electricity demand [1] Summary by Sections Overall Performance - In 2024, the company achieved an operating income of 179.18 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.00% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 9.83 billion yuan, an increase of 75.28% [17][11] - The basic earnings per share were 0.551 yuan, up 75.48% [17] Thermal Power Business - The average coal price for 2024 was 922.17 yuan per ton, down 1.37% year-on-year [20] - The thermal power segment contributed a net profit of 4.12 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.05% [27] - As of March 31, 2025, the company had a thermal power installed capacity of 75.63 million kilowatts, with 8.35 million kilowatts under construction [31] Hydropower Business - In 2024, hydropower generation was 59.47 billion kilowatt-hours, an increase of 7.93% year-on-year [32] - The hydropower segment contributed a net profit of 1.24 billion yuan, a decrease of 33.0% due to impairment provisions [37] - As of March 31, 2025, the hydropower installed capacity was 14.95 million kilowatts, with 4.92 million kilowatts under construction [41] New Energy Business - Wind power generation in 2024 was 20.18 billion kilowatt-hours, up 7.01%, while solar power generation was 11.28 billion kilowatt-hours, up 95.89% [4] - The new energy segment contributed a net profit of 1.38 billion yuan, down 21.1% year-on-year [48] - As of March 31, 2025, the installed capacity for wind power was 9.91 million kilowatts and for solar power was 15.90 million kilowatts [51] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecasted net profit for 2025 is 7.50 billion yuan, a decrease of 23.67% year-on-year, with expected earnings per share of 0.42 yuan [11][53] - The company is expected to maintain strong profitability due to sufficient long-term coal supply and overall robust performance as a leading power enterprise [53]
浙商证券浙商早知道-20250522
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-05-21 23:32
:021-80105901 :wanghe@stocke.com.cn 证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 报告日期:2025 年 05 月 22 日 浙商早知道 2025 年 05 月 22 日 :王禾 执业证书编号:S1230512110001 市场总览 重要观点 ❑ 【浙商固收 覃汉/沈聂萍】债券市场专题研究:新一轮存款降息后债市怎么看?——20250520 http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/3 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 ❑ 大势:5 月 21 日上证指数上涨 0.21%,沪深 300 上涨 0.47%,科创 50 下跌 0.22%,中证 1000 下跌 0.23%,创业 板指上涨 0.83%,恒生指数上涨 0.62%。 ❑ 行业:5 月 21 日表现最好的行业分别是煤炭(+2.55%)、有色金属(+2.05%)、电力设备(+1.11%)、银行 (+0.71%)、医药生物(+0.63%),表现最差的行业分别是美容护理(-1.09%)、电子(-0.93%)、传媒(-0.87%)、 社会服务(-0.87%)、机械设备(-0.83%)。 ❑ 资金:5 月 21 日全 A 总成交额为 12 ...
2025年1-4月财政收支数据解读:4月财政:广义收支两端共振改善
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-05-21 13:10
证券研究报告 | 宏观深度报告 | 中国宏观 4 月财政:广义收支两端共振改善 ——2025 年 1-4 月财政收支数据解读 核心观点 2025 年 4 月财政第一本账呈现向好态势,4 月全国一般公共预算收入同比增长 1.9% (3 月同比增长 0.3%),其中全国税收收入同比增长 1.9%(3 月同比下降 2.2%),我们 认为这与企业盈利的渐进修复有关;非税收入同比增长 1.7%(3 月同比增长 5.9%), 或与 2024 年同期的基数较高有关使得增速高位回落。从支出端看,4 月全国一般公共 预算支出同比增长 5.8%(3 月同比增长 5.7%)。第二本账同步改善,4 月全国政府性基 金预算收入比增速录得 8.1%,再度回归正增长,其中 4 月国有土地使用权出让收入同 比增长 4.3%,预计后续房地产市场在政策指引下渐进实现止跌回稳后,卖地收入不足 的矛盾或有所缓解。 综合来看,1-4 月广义财政预算收入完成度 25.5%(当月同比增长 2.7%),与 2024 年 大致持平,而广义财政预算支出完成度为 28.4%(当月同比增长 12.9%),快于 2024 年同期水平。我们提示,为应对后续内外部可能出 ...
挖掘科创债的溢价机会
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-05-21 11:26
证券研究报告 挖掘科创债的溢价机会 分析师 浙商固收 杜渐,CFA dujian@stocke.com.cn S1230523120005 2025年5月21日 核心观点 2025年5月7日国新办新闻发布会上吴清主席和潘功胜行长相继指出发展科技创新债券,此次系年内第三次在重要会议中提及科创债,凸显政 策层面对该品种的持续加码。政策加持下,科创债有望进一步扩容支持创新型企业发展,市场或也需要重新审视科创债投资价值。 科创债概念界定与最新政策解析:科创债是指发行主体为科技创新领域相关企业和募集资金主要用于科技创新领域而发行的债券,主要包括 科创票据和科技创新公司债券两大品种。 《支持发行科技创新债券有关事宜》有三点核心内容,一是发行主体扩容,文件鼓励金融机构、私募股权投资机构和创投机构发行科创债; 二是为科创债市场引入社保基金养老金等增量资金;三是优化科创债发行和交易制度,例如简化发行流程、创新评级体系、建立做市机制和 完善科技创新债券风险分散分担机制。 科创债一级发行特征:科创债自推出以来发行规模持续提升,发行主力军是国企和央企。截至5月19日,今年科创债当中产业债、金融债和 城投债分别发行4536亿、1400 ...
可川科技年报和一季报点评:功能性器件稳步成长,复合集流体+光模块放量可期
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-05-21 08:23
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Accumulate" [5] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 783 million yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 8.21%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 30.34% to 66.41 million yuan [1] - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 202 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.66%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 48.82% to 10.77 million yuan [1] - The company is focusing on functional devices and has expanded its product line in the semiconductor sector, including CMOS protective films and silicon-based OLED protective films, which have successfully passed customer testing and are entering mass production [2] - The company is advancing its composite electrolyte business for lithium batteries, having completed the first phase of its new composite material project and is expected to achieve mass production soon [3] - The establishment of a wholly-owned subsidiary for optical modules aims to create a full-chain production capability, with the first production line completed and self-developed silicon photonic chips entering the testing phase [4] Financial Summary - The company forecasts revenues of 1.14 billion yuan in 2025, with a projected growth rate of 45.77% [9] - The net profit is expected to rebound to 156 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth of 135.33% compared to 2024 [9] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 0.49 yuan in 2024 to 1.16 yuan in 2025 [9]
可川科技(603052):年报和一季报点评:功能性器件稳步成长,复合集流体+光模块放量可期
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-05-21 07:09
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Accumulate" [5] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 783 million yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 8.21%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 30.34% to 66.41 million yuan [1] - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 202 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.66%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 48.82% to 10.77 million yuan [1] - The company is focusing on functional devices and has expanded its product line in the semiconductor sector, including CMOS protective films and silicon-based OLED protective films, which have successfully passed customer testing and are entering mass production [2] - The company is advancing its composite electrolyte business for lithium batteries, having completed the first phase of a new composite material project and is expected to gain significant orders as production scales up [3] - The establishment of a wholly-owned subsidiary for optical modules aims to create a full production capacity for high-speed optical modules, with the first batch of self-developed silicon photonic chips entering the testing phase [4] Financial Summary - The company forecasts revenues of 1.14 billion yuan in 2025, with a projected growth rate of 45.77% [9] - The net profit is expected to rebound to 156 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth of 135.33% compared to 2024 [9] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 0.49 yuan in 2024 to 1.16 yuan in 2025 [9]
锂业弹性表2025年5月
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-05-21 05:23
证券研究报告 锂业弹性表2025年5月 行业评级:看好 2025年5月21日 | 分析师 | 沈皓俊 | 分析师 | 王南清 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 邮箱 | shenhaojun@stocke.com.cn | 邮箱 | wangnanqing@stocke.com.cn | | 证书编号 | S1230523080011 | 证书编号 | S1230523100001 | 01 锂业弹性表 预计2025年自有矿权益产量最多的为:天齐锂业,赣锋锂业,中矿资源,华友钴业。 预计2026年自有矿权益产量最多的为:赣锋锂业,天齐锂业,中矿资源,华友钴业。 2024至2026年产量增速较快的为:雅化集团,川能动力,西藏矿业,赣锋锂业,紫金矿业。 增量分析: 2 3 03 风险提示 添加标题 1)赣锋锂业:未来几年主要增量为Goulamina项目、Cauchari-Olaroz 盐湖、Mariana盐湖项目放量。 2)天齐锂业:未来几年主要增量为格林布什矿山三期扩建,以及SQM产能的扩张。 3)中矿资源:未来几年主要增量为Bikita项目增产。 4)永兴材料:未来几年增量为化山瓷石 ...
锂业弹性表:锂业弹性表2025年5月
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-05-21 03:40
锂业弹性表2025年5月 行业评级:看好 2025年5月21日 | 分析师 | 沈皓俊 | 分析师 | 王南清 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 邮箱 | shenhaojun@stocke.com.cn | 邮箱 | wangnanqing@stocke.com.cn | | 证书编号 | S1230523080011 | 证书编号 | S1230523100001 | 01 锂业弹性表 预计2025年自有矿权益产量最多的为:天齐锂业,赣锋锂业,中矿资源,华友钴业。 预计2026年自有矿权益产量最多的为:赣锋锂业,天齐锂业,中矿资源,华友钴业。 2024至2026年产量增速较快的为:雅化集团,川能动力,西藏矿业,赣锋锂业,紫金矿业。 增量分析: 2 证券研究报告 添加标题 1)赣锋锂业:未来几年主要增量为Goulamina项目、Cauchari-Olaroz 盐湖、Mariana盐湖项目放量。 2)天齐锂业:未来几年主要增量为格林布什矿山三期扩建,以及SQM产能的扩张。 3)中矿资源:未来几年主要增量为Bikita项目增产。 4)永兴材料:未来几年增量为化山瓷石矿项目扩产建成增产。 ...
浙商证券浙商早知道-20250521
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-05-20 23:30
❑ 资金:周二沪深两市总成交额为 11697 亿元,南下资金净流入 63.3 亿港元。 重要推荐 证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 报告日期:2025 年 05 月 21 日 浙商早知道 2025 年 05 月 21 日 : 张延兵 执业证书编号:S1230511010020 : 021-80106048 : zhangyanbing@stocke.com.cn 市场总览 http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/4 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 ❑ 大势:周二上证指数上涨 0.4%,沪深 300 上涨 0.5%,科创 50 上涨 0.2%,中证 1000 上涨 0.8%,创业板指上涨 0.8%,恒生指数上涨 1.49%。 ❑ 行业:周二表现最好的行业分别是美容护理(+2.5%)、综合(+2.1%)、传媒(+2.0%)、家用电器(+1.7%)、医药 生物(+1.6%),表现最差的行业分别是国防军工(-0.5%)、煤炭(-0.3%)、钢铁(-0.1%)、房地产(-0.1%)、建筑 材料(+0.1%)。 ❑ 【浙商食饮 杨骥/杜宛泽】劲仔食品(003000)公司更新:新渠道助力成长,潜力品类空间较大— ...
铜业弹性表2025年5月更新
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-05-20 14:23
证券研究报告 铜业弹性表 ——2025年5月更新 01 铜业弹性表 | 添加标题 | | --- | 2025年5月20日 行业评级:看好 分析师 沈皓俊 研究助理 苏湘涵 邮箱 shenhaojun@stocke.com.cn 邮箱 suxianghan@stocke.com.cn 证书编号 S1230523080011 数据预测偏差风险; 公司项目推进不及预期; 铜价上涨不及预期等。 行业评级与免责声明 资料来源:公司年报,公司公告,公司公众号,浙商证券研究所。注: 2 2025-2027年产量数据为预测值,存在预测偏差风险。江西铜业 统计公司自有矿数据;云南铜业统计并表产量口径;金诚信2024-2026年产量中未统计Lubambe铜矿(因公告矿山处于技改阶段)。 02 风险提示 3 添加标题 行业的投资评级 4 以报告日后的6个月内,行业指数相对于沪深300指数的涨跌幅为标准,定义如下: 加标题点击此处添加标题点击此处添加 点击此处添加标题添加标题点击此处添 我们在此提醒您,不同证券研究机构采用不同的评级术语及评级标准。我们采用的是相对评级体系,表示投资的相对比重。 标题点击此处添加标题点击此处添加标 ...