证券研究报告 信用业务周报 7月政治局会议后市场或如何演绎？ 2025年8月4日 【市场回顾】 图表：市场表现回顾 数据来源：Wind，中泰证券研究所 2 【市场观察】7月政治局会议对市场影响几何？ 3 中泰证券研究所 分析师：徐驰 执业证书编号：S0740519080003 分析师：张文宇 执业证书编号：S0740520120003 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明 • 一、7月政治局会议对市场影响几何？ • 经济形势判断更加积极务实。7月30日中共中央政治局会议顺利召开，释放了当前和未来中国经济发 展的关键政策信号。会议明确指出，"我国经济运行稳中有进，高质量发展取得新成效，主要经济指标 表现良好，新质生产力积极发展"，展现出"强大活力和韧性"。与4月底政治局会议当时仅表示"经济呈 现向好态势"相比，本次会议措辞更为乐观自信，传达出政策层对未来经济形势向好的坚定判断。同时 ，会议在肯定成绩的同时，也客观指出当前经济运行中存在的矛盾和挑战。反映出政策层对相关风险 挑战的深刻认识，也为下半年经济工作指明了基本方法论。 • 总量政策保持定力，资本市场功能定位聚焦长期生态建设。会议重申"稳中求进"总基调，明 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for BYD is "Buy" (maintained) [3][24]. Core Views - The report emphasizes that BYD is investing 5 billion yuan to build the world's first all-terrain professional racetrack, which is expected to enhance the brand's high-end image and product capabilities [4][8]. - The sales data for July shows strong performance for high-end brands, with Tengshi selling 11,375 units, Fangchengbao 14,180 units, and Yangwang 339 units, indicating a positive growth trend [4]. - The report highlights the technical capabilities of BYD's high-end models, showcasing their performance in various driving conditions during test drives at the racetrack [5][9]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for BYD are as follows: 602,315 million yuan in 2023, 777,102 million yuan in 2024, and expected to reach 905,668 million yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 42%, 29%, and 17% respectively [3]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 30,041 million yuan in 2023, 40,254 million yuan in 2024, and 52,233 million yuan in 2025, reflecting growth rates of 81%, 34%, and 30% respectively [3]. - Earnings per share are projected to increase from 3.29 yuan in 2023 to 5.73 yuan in 2025 [3]. Product Performance - The Tengshi N9 demonstrated superior maneuverability and stability during the slalom test, with a minimum turning radius of only 4.65 meters, outperforming many competitors [5][9]. - The Tengshi Z9 GT showcased impressive braking performance, achieving a maximum braking distance of 32.6 meters from 100 km/h, indicating strong safety features [9][16]. - The Yangwang U8 exhibited advanced off-road capabilities, including a unique water-sealing design that allows it to operate effectively in deep water conditions [13][16]. Strategic Insights - The report discusses the importance of high-end branding for BYD, drawing parallels with Toyota's Lexus strategy, emphasizing the need for high performance, comfort, and competitive pricing to succeed in the premium market [5][9]. - The ongoing development of new models like the Titanium 7 and N8L is expected to further enhance the sales of BYD's high-end brands [4][5].

A-Share Market Overview - The A-share market experienced an overall decline in the first week of August, with small-cap growth sectors showing smaller declines compared to large-cap growth sectors. The CSI 2000 index fell by 0.01%, while the ChiNext index decreased by 0.74%. In contrast, the Northbound 50 index dropped by 2.70% [5] - The decline in the market was largely driven by significant drops in upstream resource products, with non-ferrous metals down by 4.69%, coal down by 4.56%, and building materials down by 3.32%. The political bureau meeting at the end of July adjusted its stance on "anti-involution," leading to a relative cooling of the policy's intensity, which contributed to the pullback in the upstream resource sector [5] - Looking ahead, the political bureau meeting's outcomes were in line with expectations, maintaining a steady overall policy stance. The report anticipates that the A-share market will continue to experience structural upward fluctuations driven by valuation recovery under a dual easing environment of fiscal and monetary policy [5] Hong Kong Market Overview - The Hong Kong market also saw a significant pullback in the first week of August, with the Hang Seng Index declining by 3.47% and the Hang Seng Tech Index falling by 4.94%. The materials and information technology sectors experienced the largest declines, while healthcare and telecommunications sectors rose against the trend [6] - The pullback in the Hong Kong market was influenced by the fading sentiment around "anti-involution," which affected previously high-performing upstream resource stocks. Additionally, weakened sales expectations in the home appliance sector led to significant declines in consumer discretionary stocks like Midea. The internet and social services sector in Hong Kong also faced declines due to weakened consumption expectations [6] - The report suggests that while market sentiment has cooled, the internet and social services sector in Hong Kong is currently at a low valuation, indicating potential for upward movement. Furthermore, with rising AI capital expenditures and increased support for technological innovation policies, leading companies in the Hang Seng Tech sector are expected to have medium to long-term growth potential [6]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the brokerage sector, indicating that it is an opportune time to invest in underperforming brokerages [5][45]. Core Insights - The Shanghai Composite Index reached the 3500-point mark for the fifth time on July 10, 2025, with a notable increase in trading volume compared to previous attempts [5][8]. - Historical analysis shows that the index has previously struggled to maintain levels above 3500 points, with varying degrees of success in breaking through 4000 points in 2007 and 2015 [5][9]. - The current market is characterized by a "slow bull" trend, with over 90% of industry indices rising since the recent breakthrough, although many brokerages have already experienced significant gains [5][42]. Summary by Sections Historical Context - The report outlines the historical performance of the Shanghai Composite Index at the 3500-point threshold, noting that in 2007, the index quickly surpassed 4000 points after reaching 3500 [9]. - In 2015, the index again reached 3500 but did not yield significant excess returns for the brokerage sector due to prior gains [18][23]. - The 2021 attempt to maintain levels above 3500 resulted in a prolonged period of volatility without substantial upward momentum [31][35]. Current Market Analysis - As of July 30, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index reached 3615 points, with the brokerage sector's price-to-book (PB) ratio at 1.46, indicating a lower valuation compared to historical averages [38]. - The average daily trading volume from July 1 to July 30, 2025, was 670.1 billion yuan, which is below the required levels to sustain upward momentum [42]. - The report highlights that the brokerage sector's performance has been mixed, with some firms like Zhongyin Securities seeing significant gains, while others lag behind [42][48]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading brokerages such as Guotai Junan, CITIC Securities, and Dongfang Wealth, which are expected to benefit from increased market activity [5][45]. - It emphasizes the importance of trading volume as a key variable for sustaining market momentum and suggests that the current market conditions may favor a shift towards a more stable investment strategy [50][52].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight (Maintain)" [2] Core Insights - The new bond value-added tax regulation is expected to have a static impact of approximately 0.4% on annual revenue and 0.95% on profit for listed banks [6][14] - The report emphasizes the importance of banks enhancing their trading capabilities in the medium to long term due to the new tax implications [6][11] - The investment recommendation focuses on the stability and sustainability of the banking sector, highlighting two main stock selection strategies: regional banks with strong certainty and large banks with high dividend yields [6][18] Summary by Sections Background - The report discusses the need to adjust fund allocation, optimize the bond market pricing mechanism, and deepen fiscal and tax system reforms [10][11] Impact on Bank Behavior - In the short term, banks can mitigate the impact of increased tax costs through the realization of floating profits in OCI accounts, while in the long term, there will be a greater emphasis on improving trading capabilities [11][12] Impact on Bank Performance - The static assessment indicates that the increase in tax costs will affect annual revenue by about 0.4%, with a projected increase in tax costs of approximately 232 billion yuan for the next year [14][15] - The cumulative tax cost increase over five years is estimated to be around 1,439 billion yuan, representing about 2.7% of the projected revenue for 2025 [14][15] Investment Recommendations - The report continues to recommend focusing on bank sector stocks, particularly emphasizing regional banks with strong advantages and large banks known for their high dividends [18][19]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry [5] Core Views - The lithium battery sector is expected to enter a 2-3 year upward cycle, with potential improvements in performance and valuation [7] - The report recommends companies such as CATL and EVE Energy, and suggests focusing on solid-state battery technology [7] - The energy storage segment is seeing growth, with companies like XINWANDA planning to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [7][26] Summary by Sections Lithium Battery Sector - CATL reported a revenue of 178.9 billion RMB in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7.3%, with a net profit of 30.5 billion RMB, up 33% [13] - The company’s production capacity reached 345 GWh, with a utilization rate of nearly 90% [13] - Solid-state battery commercialization is complex, with expectations for small-scale production by 2027 [14] Energy Storage - XINWANDA submitted an application for H-share listing, with a sales volume of 3.3 GWh in Q1 2025 [26] - The revenue from energy storage systems is projected to grow significantly, with a forecasted increase from 1.11 billion RMB in 2023 to 1.89 billion RMB in 2024 [26][27] - The gross margin for energy storage systems is expected to rise from 19% in 2023 to 20.4% in 2024 [27] Power Equipment - Investment in key energy projects exceeded 1.5 trillion RMB in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 21.6% [32] - The report highlights the rapid growth in renewable energy investments, particularly in distributed solar and onshore wind projects [33] Electric Vehicle Sales - In July, electric vehicle sales in major European countries reached 84,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 42% [18] - Domestic electric vehicle sales show mixed results, with companies like NIO and XPeng reporting varying growth rates [20][24]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative performance increase of over 15% against the benchmark index in the next 6 to 12 months [13]. Core Views - The company's performance in the first half of 2025 showed slight pressure, with a revenue of 49.3 billion (up 1.4%) and a net profit of 2.077 billion (up 3%) [5]. - The second quarter of 2025 saw a revenue decline of 3% to 24.5 billion, with a net profit decrease of 8% to 0.95 billion, primarily due to pressures in the central air conditioning and three electrical appliances sectors [5][6]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its high-end brand positioning and reducing reliance on the weak renovation market by strengthening its product offerings in the construction and home decoration sectors [6]. Financial Performance Summary - The company's projected revenue for 2023 is 85.6 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 15%. For 2024, revenue is expected to reach 92.746 billion, growing by 8% [3]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 2.837 billion in 2023, with a significant growth of 98% year-on-year. By 2024, it is expected to rise to 3.348 billion, an 18% increase [3]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to increase from 2.05 in 2023 to 2.42 in 2024, reflecting a positive growth trajectory [3]. Market and Competitive Landscape - The company is experiencing a mixed performance in its product segments, with air conditioning sales declining domestically while exports are improving. The overall market competition is intensifying, particularly in the domestic air conditioning sector [8]. - The company is expected to see a recovery in its ice washing segment, driven by structural upgrades and efficiency improvements in its Monterrey factory [8]. - The long-term growth of the company is anticipated to rely on improving profit margins in the white goods sector, which is currently at a low level of 3-4% [9]. Management and Strategic Changes - The company plans to change two board members, bringing in individuals with international marketing and air conditioning backgrounds to enhance overseas expansion and address domestic market weaknesses [9].

Core Insights - The report indicates that the bond market is experiencing increased volatility, with interest rates retreating from their peak levels. The 10-year government bond yield closed at 1.7059%, down 2.7 basis points from the previous week, reflecting a recovery to levels seen on July 22 [3][7][8] - The report identifies three main pricing clues affecting interest rate adjustments: the increase in external risk premiums, the adjustment of "anti-involution" and "re-inflation" expectations, and the potential for adjustments in data trading [15][20][26] Group 1: Interest Rate Trends - The report confirms that the previous interest rate bottom has been established, and it is unlikely that rates will fall below previous lows. The rapid decline in interest rates this week indicates a shift in market focus from the "interest rate peak" to the potential for downward movement [4][28] - The 10-year interest rate has been validated at the critical psychological level of 1.75%, suggesting that rates above this level are likely to attract configuration forces [12][28] Group 2: External Environment and Economic Indicators - The uncertainty surrounding US-China tariff prospects has increased, with the likelihood of significant tariff hikes being low. Recent developments indicate that punitive tariffs of 40% on ASEAN countries are unlikely to lead to substantial increases in tariffs [2][28] - The report notes that despite adjustments in "re-inflation" expectations, risk appetite remains strong, with commodity prices still significantly higher than in June. The South China Industrial Products Index was reported at 3680.1, reflecting an 8.7% increase from the June low [22][29] Group 3: Data Trading Adjustments - The report highlights that the basic pressure on the bond market may weaken, but the possibility of a significant economic downturn is low. Recent PMI data indicates a decline in manufacturing, construction, and service sectors, suggesting a potential slowdown in economic momentum [26][27] - The report emphasizes that the adjustments in the three pricing clues have led to a rapid decline in interest rates, but after the initial emotional response, the likelihood of returning to previous lows is minimal [28]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 3.224 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 19.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 486 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 32.03% [4] - The company is expanding into new business areas, which is expected to open up growth opportunities [5][6] - The company has a strong performance in traditional markets such as mobile communications and consumer electronics, while also achieving significant growth in emerging markets like AI applications and automotive electronics [5] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 5,040 million yuan in 2023, 5,897 million yuan in 2024, 7,276 million yuan in 2025, 8,932 million yuan in 2026, and 10,908 million yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 19%, 17%, 23%, 23%, and 22% respectively [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 641 million yuan in 2023, 832 million yuan in 2024, 1,105 million yuan in 2025, 1,390 million yuan in 2026, and 1,723 million yuan in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 48%, 30%, 33%, 26%, and 24% respectively [3] - The company's gross margin for H1 2025 was 36.68%, with a net profit margin of 17.34% [4] Growth Opportunities - The company is actively pursuing new business lines, including hydrogen fuel cells and AI applications, which are expected to contribute to future growth [6][8] - The employee stock ownership plan indicates the company's confidence in its future performance, with a target net profit of at least 1.05 billion yuan in any of the years 2025, 2026, or 2027 to meet the unlocking conditions [4] Valuation Metrics - The projected P/E ratios for the company are 35.9 for 2023, 27.6 for 2024, 20.8 for 2025, 16.5 for 2026, and 13.4 for 2027 [3] - The projected P/B ratios are 3.9 for 2023, 3.7 for 2024, 3.2 for 2025, 2.7 for 2026, and 2.3 for 2027 [3]

如何理解国债恢复增值税？ 分析师：严伶怡 执业证书编号：S0740525070001 Email：yanly@zts.com.cn 联系人：苏鸿婷 Email：suht@zts.com.cn 分析师：吕品 执业证书编号：S0740525060003 Email：lvpin@zts.com.cn 1、《政治局会议后，债市或修复》 2025-07-30 2、《经济读数尚可，债市数据交易 进行中》2025-07-15 盘后修复》2025-07-15 证券研究报告/固收事件点评报告 2025 年 08 月 02 日 报告摘要 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 昨日财政部、税务总局公布，自 2025 年 8 月 8 日起，对在该日期之后（含当日）新 发行的国债、地方政府债券、金融债券的利息收入，恢复征收增值税。对在该日期之 前已发行的国债、地方政府债券、金融债券(包含在 2025 年 8 月 8 日之后续发行的部 分）的利息收入，继续免征增值税直至债券到期。 我们认为以最直接的思路去理解，对债券市场加征税收，本质上对市场并不算利好。 存量债券的收益没有增加，而新增债券的收益下降，那么最终大概率更多是以新券利 率补偿式上 ...