计算机 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2025 年 8 月 11 日 AI 应用又迎催化 计算机行业"一周解码" 近日，OpenAI 正式发布新一代大模型 GPT-5，大模型领域竞争进一步加剧； 2025 世界机器人大会开幕，寻找能够创造实际价值的刚需场景是拉开各机器 人厂商竞争差距的关键，机器人零部件的需求相对确定；谷歌 DeepMind 实 验室发布 Genie 3 人工智能模型，为 AI 模型创建更高质量的训练环境。 支撑评级的要点 【软通动力】公司于 2025 年 8 月 6 日收到深交所出具的《关于受理软通动力信 息技术（集团）股份有限公司向特定对象发行股票申请文件的通知》（深证上审 〔2025〕146 号），确认其报送的定向增发申请文件已获受理。 【用友网络】公司于 2024 年 9 月 5 日~2025 年 9 月 4 日实施回购股份，预计金额 5000 万~1 亿元，用途为员工持股计划或股权激励。累计回购：414.409 万股，金 额 5006.2199 万元，价格区间 9.87~18.44 元/ 评级面临的主要风险 技术创新不及预期；政策推行不到位；下游需求景气度不稳定的风险。 相关研究报 ...

Macro Economic Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.23% this week, with the CSI 300 futures increasing by 1.38% [1][12] - The futures for coking coal surged by 9.37%, while the main contract for iron ore saw a modest increase of 0.70% [1][12] - The annualized yield of Yu'ebao increased by 1 basis point to 1.05%, and the yield on ten-year government bonds decreased by 2 basis points to 1.69% [1][12] Export Performance - In July, China's exports maintained resilience, primarily due to two factors: the continuation of Sino-U.S. trade talks and improvements in the prices of certain export goods [2] - Specific categories such as household ceramics, shoes, integrated circuits, and home appliances showed price increases, which helped offset declines in export volumes [2] Asset Allocation Recommendations - The recommended order for asset allocation remains: equities > commodities > bonds > cash [3][4] - The focus for equities is on the implementation of "incremental" policies, while bonds are underweighted due to potential short-term impacts from the equity-bond relationship [4][13] Industry Insights - The A-share market saw widespread index increases, with the leading indices being the CSI 1000 (up 2.51%), Shanghai Dividend (up 2.23%), and Shanghai Composite (up 2.11%) [37] - The sectors that performed well included non-ferrous metals (up 5.83%), machinery (up 5.75%), and defense industry (up 5.24%), while the pharmaceutical and restaurant tourism sectors experienced slight declines [37][38] Economic Data - In July, the Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.4% month-on-month [24] - The total value of China's goods trade in July reached 3.91 trillion yuan, with exports growing by 8% and imports by 4.8% [24] High-Tech Industry Developments - The 2025 World Robot Conference opened in Beijing, focusing on key areas such as aging society responses and smart manufacturing upgrades [39] - China's production of industrial and service robots saw significant year-on-year growth, with industrial robots increasing by 35.6% [39][40]

Group 1: Stock Market Overview - The A-share market, Hong Kong stocks, and US stocks all experienced an increase this week, with the A-share index (CSI 300) rising by 1.2% over the past week, 2.2% over the past month, and 4.3% year-to-date [20][21][22] - The performance of various indices includes the CSI 500 rising by 1.8% weekly and the ChiNext index increasing by 0.5% [21][22] Group 2: A-share Style and Crowding Degree - Growth style continues to show low crowding and excess returns, with a weekly excess of -0.9% and a year-to-date excess of 3.0% [26][27] - Small-cap stocks outperformed large-cap stocks with a weekly excess of 0.7% and a year-to-date excess of 7.3% [26][27] - Micro-cap stocks showed a significant outperformance against fund-heavy stocks, with a year-to-date excess return of 46.1% [26][27] Group 3: A-share Valuation and Equity-Debt Ratio - The current PE_TTM of the A-share market is at a historically high percentile of 82%, indicating a marginal upward trend [64] - The CSI 300's valuation is at a high percentile of 69%, while the CSI 500 is at 62%, and the ChiNext is at a low percentile of 17% [64][71] - Sectors with extremely low valuations include consumption (10%) and real estate (11%), while sectors with extremely high valuations include pharmaceuticals (86%) and electronics (81%) [71]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a market price of RMB 135.00 and a sector rating of "Outperform" [1][3]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the PCB expansion wave driven by AI, as the CoWoP technology pushes for upgrades in PCB processes, leading to increased demand for drilling equipment [3][8]. - The company is actively entering the drilling equipment sector to establish a second growth curve, maintaining a "Buy" rating [3][5]. Financial Projections - The company's revenue is projected to grow significantly, with estimates of RMB 1,479 million in 2025, representing a growth rate of 55.1% [7]. - The EPS estimates have been raised to RMB 2.21 for 2025, RMB 3.25 for 2026, and RMB 4.17 for 2027, reflecting increases of 5.7%, 18.2%, and 23.7% respectively [5][7]. - The company's total market capitalization is approximately RMB 178 billion, with corresponding PE ratios of 61.2, 41.5, and 32.4 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 [5][7]. Market Dynamics - The global market for multilayer boards and HDI boards is expected to reach USD 24.21 billion and USD 12.518 billion in 2024, with growth rates of 40.2% and 18.8% respectively, driven by demand from AI servers and high-speed network devices [8]. - The company is launching new drilling equipment, which is anticipated to help penetrate the new market segment and further expand growth opportunities [8].

Investment Rating - The report rates the chemical industry as "Outperform" [2] Core Views - The report highlights the impact of fluctuating international oil prices and the recent price changes in titanium dioxide and refrigerants, suggesting a focus on mid-year earnings reports and the influence of supply-side factors in related sub-industries [2][3][11] - It emphasizes the importance of self-sufficiency in electronic materials companies and the stability of dividend policies in energy enterprises [11] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - In the week of August 4-10, 2025, among 100 tracked chemical products, 18 saw price increases, 39 experienced declines, and 43 remained stable. 38% of products had month-on-month price increases, while 56% saw decreases [10][31] - International oil prices fell, with WTI crude oil closing at $63.88 per barrel, down 5.12% for the week, and Brent crude at $66.59 per barrel, down 4.42% [10][32] - Titanium dioxide prices decreased to an average of 13,302 RMB/ton, down 1.10% from the previous week, with a year-to-date decline of 7.24% [10][33] - Refrigerant prices increased, with R32 averaging 56,500 RMB/ton, up 2.73% week-on-week and 31.40% year-to-date [10] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on mid-year earnings, the impact of "anti-involution" on supply in related sub-industries, and the importance of self-sufficiency in electronic materials [11] - Long-term investment themes include the sustained high demand in the oil and gas extraction sector, the rapid development of downstream industries, and the potential for recovery in demand supported by policy [11] - Recommended stocks include China Petroleum, China Oilfield Services, and several technology and chemical companies [11] Key Stocks for August - The report identifies Satellite Chemical and Anji Technology as key stocks for August, highlighting their strong performance and growth potential [12][18]

Macro Economic Overview - In July, China's export year-on-year growth rate continued to show positive growth, with a 6.1% increase from January to July, which is a 0.2 percentage point acceleration compared to the first half of the year. Imports decreased by 2.7%, with the decline narrowing by 1.1 percentage points compared to the first half of the year. The trade surplus reached 683.51 billion USD [6][7] - In July, exports grew by 7.2% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 1.3 percentage points. Imports increased by 4.1% year-on-year, showing a significant month-on-month acceleration of 3.0 percentage points. The trade surplus for July was 98.24 billion USD [6][7] Trade Partners Analysis - ASEAN and EU continued to support China's export growth in July, contributing 2.6 and 1.4 percentage points respectively to the year-on-year growth rate. In contrast, exports to the US decreased by 21.7%, which was a 5.5 percentage point increase in the decline compared to the previous month [7][8] - The total import and export volume with ASEAN in July was 86.03 billion USD, with exports increasing by 16.6% year-on-year. The total with the EU was 74.55 billion USD, with exports rising by 9.2% year-on-year [7] Industry Performance - The overall activity in the A-share merger and acquisition market has decreased, with 50 disclosed merger events totaling 209.01 billion RMB from July 21 to August 3. This represents a decline in both the number and value of significant mergers compared to the previous period [10] - The real estate management and development, basic chemicals, electronic equipment, and textile sectors are highlighted as active areas for mergers and acquisitions [10] Key Stocks - The report lists key stocks for August, including SF Holding (002352.SZ), Satellite Chemical (002648.SZ), and others, indicating potential investment opportunities in these companies [5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [1][36]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in lithium carbonate prices, which is expected to enhance profitability in related sectors, particularly in battery and cathode materials [1][24]. - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in domestic new energy vehicle sales starting from August, driven by the release of subsidy funds, with a forecast of high growth in 2025 [1][24]. - The photovoltaic sector is undergoing a "de-involution" process, with government policies aimed at regulating low-price competition and promoting product quality [1][24]. - The hydrogen energy sector is being supported by continuous policy initiatives, with a focus on companies that have cost and technological advantages in electrolyzer production and hydrogen infrastructure [1][24]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The electric equipment and new energy sector saw a 1.94% increase this week, with wind power leading at 4.05% and photovoltaic at 1.26% [10][13]. - The lithium battery index rose by 2.72%, reflecting ongoing price adjustments in the lithium market [10][13]. New Energy Vehicles - In July 2025, new energy vehicle retail sales reached 987,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 22.3% but a month-on-month decrease of 3.3% [24]. - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the overall passenger car market reached 54.0%, up 2.7 percentage points from the previous year [24]. Lithium Market - The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate reached 71,961 yuan per ton on August 8, marking a month-on-month increase of 1,012 yuan per ton [24]. - The report notes that the price of lithium carbonate has been influenced by potential production halts in Jiangxi lithium mines [24]. Photovoltaic Sector - The report indicates that the price of silicon materials remains stable, with mainstream prices for dense materials around 49-55 yuan per kilogram [15]. - The photovoltaic sector is expected to see an increase in production in August, particularly in polysilicon and other segments [24]. Hydrogen Energy - The National Energy Administration has announced pilot projects for green liquid fuel technology, including green methanol and ammonia [24]. - The report suggests focusing on companies with cost and technological advantages in the hydrogen energy sector [1][24]. Company Updates - Aisheng Co. reported a net loss of 238 million yuan for the first half of 2025, while Huaming Equipment achieved a net profit of 368 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.17% [26]. - Hewa Electric reported a net profit of 242 million yuan, up 56.79% year-on-year [26].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - Upstream prices are showing a divergence. Edible agricultural product prices continue to decline, while production material prices have rebounded in the last two weeks. The narrowing decline in production material prices is due to the continuous optimization of the domestic market competition order, and some key industrial raw material prices have significantly rebounded. The supply of edible agricultural products is sufficient, leading to a continued price decline and an expanding year - on - year decline [2]. - From August 1 - 7, 2025, the average daily transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities tracked by Wind was about 174,000 square meters per day, compared with about 232,000 square meters per day in August 2024 [2]. Summary According to the Directory High - Frequency Data Panoramic Scan - For food, the average wholesale price of pork in the week of August 4 - 9, 2025, decreased by 0.53% week - on - week and 21.25% year - on - year. The Shandong vegetable wholesale price index increased by 4.80% week - on - week and decreased by 26.15% year - on - year. The edible agricultural product price index decreased by 0.20% week - on - week and 9.66% year - on - year [2]. - For energy, Brent and WTI crude oil futures prices decreased by 5.82% and 5.23% week - on - week respectively. Coal inventory at Qinhuangdao Port increased by 3.18% week - on - week [11]. - For non - ferrous metals, LME copper and aluminum spot prices decreased by 0.60% and 0.15% week - on - week respectively, and the copper - to - gold ratio decreased by 2.57% week - on - week [11]. - For real estate, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 15.22% week - on - week, while the total transaction price of land in 100 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 17.37% week - on - week [11]. High - Frequency Data and Important Macroeconomic Indicators Trend Comparison - The report presents multiple charts showing the relationship between high - frequency data and important macroeconomic indicators, including the relationship between the RJ/CRB price index year - on - year and export amount year - on - year, and the relationship between the production material price index year - on - year and PPI industrial year - on - year [15][18] Important High - Frequency Indicators in the US and Europe - The report includes information on US weekly economic indicators, initial jobless claims, unemployment rates, same - store sales growth, PCE year - on - year, as well as the Chicago Fed Financial Conditions Index and the implied prospects of interest rate hikes/cuts by the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank [86][82][85] Seasonal Trends of High - Frequency Data - The report shows the seasonal trends of high - frequency data through various charts, such as the seasonal trends of the average daily crude steel production, production material price index, and China's commodity price index [93][99] High - Frequency Traffic Data in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen - The report provides the year - on - year changes in subway passenger volume in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen [143][144]

Group 1 - The report highlights a strong market performance supported by ample liquidity and positive policy signals, with the financing balance of the two markets approaching 2 trillion yuan [12] - The release of GPT-5 is expected to accelerate the commercialization of AI applications, despite some market skepticism regarding its revolutionary impact [29][30] - The eSIM mobile phone market is anticipated to grow significantly, with projections indicating around 1 billion eSIM smartphones globally by the end of 2025 and 1.441 billion in China by 2030 [12][28] Group 2 - The AI application sector is entering a phase of accelerated commercialization, with significant increases in token consumption indicating growing demand [30][31] - Specific AI application areas such as AI programming, AI advertising, and AI healthcare are showing promising revenue growth, with companies like GitHub Copilot and Anthropic reporting substantial user and revenue increases [33][34] - The report identifies ten potential application scenarios for humanoid robots, emphasizing their role in industrial operations, emergency response, and elder care, which are expected to drive market growth [27][28]

Economic Growth Outlook - China's GDP growth is projected to be 4.9% for the year 2025, with Q3 and Q4 expected to grow at 4.7% and 4.3% respectively[24] - The GDP growth rate for the first half of 2025 is estimated at 5.3%, marking a significant recovery compared to the previous three quarters[26] Inflation and Price Trends - CPI is expected to show a slight recovery, with average growth of 0.1% and 0.6% in Q3 and Q4 respectively, leading to an annual increase of 0.1%[30] - PPI is projected to decline by 2.4% for the year, with a narrowing drop in the fourth quarter to -0.2%[30] Investment and Consumption - Manufacturing investment is expected to slow from 7.5% in the first half to 3.6% in the second half of 2025, while infrastructure investment is projected to decrease from 8.9% to 6.8%[24] - Social retail sales are anticipated to grow by 4.3% in the second half of 2025, with an annual growth of 4.6%[24] External Trade and Tariffs - Export growth is expected to turn negative in the second half of 2025, impacted by a high average tariff rate of 44.5% imposed by the U.S.[24] - The anticipated decline in exports could reduce growth by approximately 7-8 percentage points in the latter part of the year[24] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - Fiscal policy is expected to focus on optimizing existing policies and increasing the use of special bonds, with a projected growth in broad fiscal expenditure slowing to 3.5%[31] - There is potential for a 50 basis point reduction in reserve requirements, with a limited interest rate cut of 10-15 basis points anticipated[31]