Key Insights - The report highlights the strong performance of the domestic computing power industry chain, indicating that the logic chain of "industry breakthrough - performance verification - demand verification" has gradually been established, leading to a catalytic market environment [3][6] - The report emphasizes the robust growth of Jitu Express, with a total global parcel volume of 7.39 billion pieces in Q2 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 23.5%. The Southeast Asian market showed particularly strong performance, with parcel volume increasing by 65.9% to 1.69 billion pieces [3][7][8] Strategy Research - The domestic computing power industry is entering a high growth cycle, supported by the rapid increase in demand for domestic large models and the upcoming IPOs of key domestic GPU manufacturers, which fill the gap in the A-share market for fully functional GPUs [6] - The report suggests focusing on domestic computing power chips, servers, PCB, and optical communication manufacturers as potential investment opportunities [6] Transportation Sector - Jitu Express's Q2 2025 performance is highlighted, with a total parcel volume of 7.39 billion pieces, marking a new high since its listing. The company has optimized its network and efficiency, significantly enhancing its automation capabilities [7][8] - The Southeast Asian market's strong performance is attributed to strategic partnerships with major e-commerce platforms, which have led to substantial growth in cross-border e-commerce [9] Future Outlook - The report anticipates continued growth in Jitu Express's business volume driven by the e-commerce boom in Southeast Asia, while the optimization of operations in the Chinese market is expected to release profit margins under the "anti-involution" policy [9]

Macro Economic Overview - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the implementation of domestic growth stabilization policies, particularly following the recent political bureau meeting [4] - The macroeconomic indicators show a mixed performance, with June CPI rising by 0.1% year-on-year and PPI declining by 3.6% [5][19] - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) projects that China's economic increment during the 14th Five-Year Plan will exceed 35 trillion yuan, with an expected total economic output of around 140 trillion yuan this year [19][20] Asset Performance Review - The A-share market experienced an overall increase, with the CSI 300 index rising by 0.82% and CSI 300 futures up by 1.75% [2][12] - Commodity futures also saw significant gains, with coking coal futures increasing by 7.00% and iron ore futures up by 3.87% [2][12] - In the bond market, the yield on ten-year government bonds rose by 2 basis points to 1.67%, while active ten-year government bond futures fell by 0.27% [2][12] Asset Allocation Recommendations - The report suggests an asset allocation hierarchy favoring stocks over commodities, bonds, and cash, indicating a bullish outlook on equities [6] - The recommendation for stocks is to overweight, focusing on the implementation of "incremental" policies [4][6] - Bonds are advised to be underweighted due to potential short-term impacts from the stock-bond relationship [4][6] Industry Insights - The real estate sector has shown strong performance, leading the market with a 6.06% increase, driven by supportive policies [36] - The non-bank financial sector also performed well, increasing by 3.94% [36] - The automotive industry faced a slight decline, with a decrease of 0.56%, indicating potential challenges despite overall market growth [36] Economic Policy Developments - The government has introduced new employment support policies aimed at stabilizing jobs, including expanding loan support for maintaining employment [20] - The NDRC has allocated an additional 10 billion yuan for central budget investments to promote employment among key groups [20] - The report highlights the ongoing efforts to enhance the inclusive childcare service system, which is expected to support family stability and economic growth [20]

电力设备 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2025 年 7 月 13 日 强于大市 电力设备与新能源行业 7月 第 2 周周报 新能源汽车方面，根据中汽协数据，6 月新能源汽车产销分别完成 126.8 万 辆和 132.9 万辆，同比分别增长 26.4%和 26.7%，渗透率达到 45.8%；根据 中国汽车动力电池产业创新联盟数据，6 月我国动力电池装车量 58.2GWh， 环比增长 1.9%，同比增长 35.9%；下半年随着新能源新车型不断推出，新 能源汽车产品力不断增强，2025 年国内新能源汽车销量有望保持高增，带动 电池和材料需求增长。新技术方面，固态电池产业化趋势明确，后续关注固 态电池相关材料和设备企业验证进展。光伏方面，中央经济工作会议明确提 出综合整治"内卷式"竞争，中央财经委员会明确将依法依规治理企业低价无 序竞争，引导企业提升产品品质，推动落后产能有序退出，在顶层指引之下 国家市场监管总局、工信部联合印发《计量支撑产业新质生产力发展行动方 案（2025—2030 年）》，或通过提升先进制造标准推动产能升级迭代，光伏供 给侧提质、增效主线明确。在"反内卷"大趋势下，硅业分会等第三方机构表 示 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the potential for market breakthroughs amid current volatility, driven by "policy expectations + industry prosperity" as dual certainties, suggesting an optimized holding structure to prepare for the third quarter's performance and policy resonance [1][10][20]. Market Overview - The market continues to show strength supported by capital and policy expectations, with the upcoming disclosure of second-quarter economic data expected to influence market sentiment [10][20]. - The overall A-share index, excluding financial and micro-cap stocks, has seen a cumulative increase of 32.8% from August 30, 2024, to July 11, 2025, with a 7.0% increase year-to-date [22][25]. Industry Performance - Midstream industries, such as steel, electric new energy, real estate, and building materials, have significantly contributed to the upward movement of the index, indicating a recovery in valuations driven by "anti-involution" policy expectations [22][26]. - The report highlights the ongoing "anti-involution" trading, with sectors like electric new energy and steel showing continued recovery, while the banking sector experienced notable adjustments [20][21]. Domestic Computing Power Industry - The domestic computing power industry is entering a high-growth cycle, with significant developments in the GPU sector, including the IPO acceptance of domestic GPU manufacturers, which fills a gap in the A-share market for full-function GPUs [26][28]. - Industrial Fulian's mid-year earnings forecast indicates a substantial increase in net profit, driven by AI-related business growth, suggesting a positive outlook for the computing power industry [29][30]. Capital Flow and ETF Trends - The A-share market saw a net capital inflow of 61.57 billion yuan, with non-bank financials, computing, and real estate being the most favored sectors [35][36]. - The report notes a shift in ETF trends, with a significant net subscription of 4.89 billion yuan, marking the largest inflow in three weeks [35][36].

Core Insights - The domestic computing power industry chain has achieved a breakthrough in the logic chain of "industrial breakthrough - performance verification - demand verification," indicating that the industry is entering a catalytic phase [2][4] - Key domestic GPU manufacturers, such as Muxi Integration and Moer Thread, have had their IPO applications accepted, filling the gap in the A-share market for fully functional GPUs [5][6] - Huawei's computing power cluster performance is now comparable to NVIDIA, with significant advancements in AI model capabilities and infrastructure [6][9] Industry Overview - The performance of key companies in the industry chain, such as Industrial Fulian, has shown remarkable growth, with a forecasted net profit of 6.727 to 6.927 billion yuan for Q2 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 47.72% to 52.11% [7] - The demand side is witnessing rapid growth in the consumption of tokens by domestic large models, indicating a significant increase in computing power demand [8] - The acceleration of the domestic GPU listing wave, combined with the performance of hardware manufacturers and the growing demand for AI large models, suggests that the domestic computing power industry is entering a high-growth cycle [4][8] Key Company Developments - Muxi Integration has sold over 25,000 GPU products and has achieved large-scale applications in various AI public computing platforms [5] - Moer Thread has successfully developed and mass-produced four generations of high-performance GPU architectures, launching multiple high-performance GPU accelerator cards and integrated solutions [5] - Huawei's CloudMatrix 384 AI cloud service has achieved a significant performance leap, surpassing NVIDIA's flagship products in several key metrics, indicating a milestone breakthrough in China's AI infrastructure [6][9] Market Dynamics - The rapid increase in token consumption for domestic large models, with daily usage reaching 16.4 trillion tokens, reflects a strong upward trend in computing power demand [8] - The performance of Industrial Fulian's AI-related business has seen over 60% revenue growth in AI servers, indicating a sustained positive outlook for the computing power industry chain [7] - The overall trend suggests that the domestic computing power market is likely to experience further catalysis, with recommendations to focus on domestic computing power chips, servers, PCB, and optical communication manufacturers [2][4][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation that the company's stock price will outperform the benchmark index by more than 20% over the next 6-12 months [3][5]. Core Views - The report highlights strong performance in the Southeast Asian market, with a year-on-year package volume growth of 65.9% to 1.69 billion packages in Q2 2025. The total global package volume reached 7.39 billion, reflecting a 23.5% increase year-on-year [3][8]. - The company is expected to benefit from the e-commerce boom in Southeast Asia and operational efficiency improvements in China, which may enhance profitability under the "anti-involution" policy [5][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a total package volume of 7.39 billion in Q2 2025, with a 23.5% year-on-year growth. The Southeast Asian market contributed significantly with a 65.9% increase, while the Chinese market saw a 14.7% growth [3][8]. - The projected net profit for 2025-2027 is estimated at 2.728 billion, 4.485 billion, and 6.341 billion RMB, representing growth rates of 240.1%, 64.4%, and 41.4% respectively [5][7]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates continued growth in the Southeast Asian e-commerce sector, supported by strategic partnerships with major platforms like Shopee and Lazada. The company is positioned to capitalize on this growth, maintaining its market leadership [8]. - The "anti-involution" policy in China is expected to ease price competition, allowing for improved profitability in domestic operations as the company optimizes its efficiency [8]. Valuation Metrics - The report projects earnings per share (EPS) of 0.30, 0.50, and 0.71 RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 29.7, 18.1, and 12.8 [5][7]. - The company’s revenue is expected to grow from 63.056 billion RMB in 2023 to 109.376 billion RMB by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 13% [7][9].

证券研究报告——晨会聚焦 2025 年 7 月 11 日 | 7 月金股组合 | | | --- | --- | | 股票代码 | 股票名称 | | 002244.SZ | 滨江集团 | | 002352.SZ | 顺丰控股 | | 1519.HK | 极兔速递-W | | 002648.SZ | 卫星化学 | | 688019.SH | 安集科技 | | 688680.SH | 海优新材 | | 603011.SH | 合锻智能 | | 600054.SH | 黄山旅游 | | 300476.SZ | 胜宏科技 | | 688519.SH | 南亚新材 | 中银晨会聚焦-20250711 ■重点关注 【策略研究】策略点评*王君 徐亚。上证指数"站上"3500 点，主因金融行业 股价强势及"反内卷"政策效果预期。后续上证指数"更进一步"，需要"反内卷" 等增量政策落地效果展现。 【策略研究】策略点评报告*王君 徐沛东。2025 年 6 月 23 日—2025 年 7 月 6 日。本期中国 A 股上市公司并购重组市场整体活跃度减弱，呈现出"频率 高、主体多、领域广"的三大特点。 【社会服务】人力资源服务行业：具 ...

Group 1 - The overall activity level of the A-share merger and acquisition market in China has weakened, characterized by "high frequency, diverse subjects, and broad fields" [1][2] - A total of 68 disclosed merger and acquisition events were recorded during the period, with a total transaction amount of 1610.13 billion RMB, showing a decrease in both the number of significant merger and acquisition events and transaction amounts compared to the previous period [1][2] - The real estate management and development, machinery, electronic equipment, instruments and components, media, electrical equipment, automotive parts, software, pharmaceuticals, and capital markets sectors are highlighted as active areas for mergers and acquisitions [1][2] Group 2 - Private enterprises and local state-owned enterprises are actively engaging in horizontal integration and strategic cooperation, indicating diverse motivations for mergers and acquisitions [1][2] - Despite the decline in the number and amount of mergers and acquisitions, there is an upward trend in structural reorganization driven by optimized regulatory policies [1][2] - The report anticipates that the merger and acquisition market will further release integration and value reconstruction potential supported by economic recovery, policy encouragement, and capital market reforms [1][2] Group 3 - 28 listed companies announced or planned restructuring during the period, with an average stock price fluctuation of 5.03% over two weeks [2][5] - 29 companies achieved significant progress after announcing restructuring plans, with an average stock price fluctuation of 5.90% [2][5] - The number of major restructuring events decreased by 17.07% compared to the previous period, and research enthusiasm declined by 26.32% [2][5] Group 4 - The report includes detailed information on specific companies involved in restructuring, including their stock codes, names, industries, and restructuring purposes [3][4][7] - Notable companies such as Wanxiang Qianchao and Guoke Microelectronics are engaged in strategic cooperation and horizontal integration through capital increases and acquisitions [3][4][7] - The report also highlights the market capitalization and price-to-earnings ratios of companies involved in restructuring, indicating their financial performance and market response [5][10]

Strategy Overview - The report highlights that the Shanghai Composite Index has surpassed the 3500-point mark, primarily driven by strong performance in the financial sector and expectations surrounding the "anti-involution" policy [1][2] - For the index to advance further, the effectiveness of incremental policies such as "anti-involution" needs to be demonstrated [2] Market Sentiment - There is a notable psychological focus on the 3500-point threshold, which may lead to passive selling by quantitative funds when this integer level is reached [2] - The report suggests downplaying the emphasis on the index's integer levels and instead focusing on the total return index, which better reflects the true performance of the Shanghai market [2] Financial Sector Contribution - As of July 8, the Shanghai Composite Index has recorded a year-to-date increase of 4.2%, with the financial sector contributing 2.8% to this growth [2][4] - The strong performance of bank and insurance stocks is identified as a core reason for the index's ability to reach the 3500-point level [2] Trading Volume Considerations - The report discusses the importance of trading volume in maintaining the index above 3500 points, suggesting that the focus should be on the financial sector's index performance rather than overall market trading volume [2] - Historical trends indicate that the banking sector's index benefits from incremental capital flows, with a stable trading volume leading to gradual price increases [2] Policy Impact - The "anti-involution" policy, as defined in the sixth meeting of the Central Financial Committee, is expected to aid in macroeconomic structural adjustments and improve pricing factors, which could facilitate a classic market structure of "weight lifting and technology growth" [2] - This structure is anticipated to help the index achieve a "two steps forward, one step back" effect, leading to an upward shift in the market's central tendency [2] Sector Rotation and Investment Focus - The report notes a rapid rotation among sectors, with high absolute readings in sentiment indicators, suggesting a dual constraint of "upside risk" and "drawdown control" [2] - It recommends focusing on relatively undervalued technology growth sectors for potential investment opportunities [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities [2]. Core Insights - The human resources service industry demonstrates full-cycle growth capabilities, with steady growth during downturns and potential for rapid expansion during upturns. The industry is still in its early stages, with significant growth potential and currently low valuation levels for many listed companies [2][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The human resources service industry encompasses a wide range of services aimed at balancing the supply and demand of human capital, including recruitment, career guidance, outsourcing, and consulting [11][12]. 2. Current Development Status - The market concentration is low, with a significant presence of flexible employment models indicating a blue ocean market. The industry has shown a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12.91% from 2016 to 2023, with revenues expected to exceed 3 trillion RMB by 2025 [26][38]. 3. Future Industry Outlook - The industry is expected to benefit from economic, social, and technological changes, with a notable increase in demand for labor in the tertiary sector. The labor supply is projected to decrease, leading to higher employment costs, which will enhance the penetration of flexible employment and digital human resources solutions [59][66].