Group 1: Key Insights on Selected Stocks - The report highlights a selection of stocks for November, including China Eastern Airlines (600115.SH), COSCO Shipping Specialized Carriers (600428.SH), and Ningde Times (300750.SZ) among others, indicating potential investment opportunities in these companies [1]. Group 2: Macroeconomic Analysis - In September, the Federal Reserve initiated its first interest rate cut of the year, leading to fluctuations in the US dollar index and mixed movements in the domestic and foreign exchange rates of the Renminbi. The actual effective exchange rate index of the Renminbi has rebounded for three consecutive months, impacting the financial conditions of export enterprises [2][4]. - The report notes that the cross-border capital flow maintained a balanced state, with a slight shift from net inflow to net outflow, primarily driven by securities investments. Foreign capital has slowed its reduction of Renminbi-denominated bonds while increasing its holdings in Renminbi stocks, indicating a cautiously optimistic attitude towards A-shares [4]. Group 3: Real Estate Sector Insights - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes high-quality development in real estate, shifting from the previous "housing is for living, not for speculation" stance to a focus on improving systems, optimizing supply, and enhancing quality. This reflects the central government's increased attention to real estate as a matter of public welfare [6][15]. - The plan outlines five key directions for promoting high-quality development in real estate, including constructing a new development model, optimizing the supply of affordable housing, increasing the supply of improved housing, building "good houses," and establishing a safety management system for houses throughout their lifecycle [7][10][11][12][13]. Group 4: Power Equipment Sector Insights - The report on Dajin Heavy Industry indicates that the company achieved a revenue of 4.595 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 99.25%, with a net profit of 0.887 billion yuan, up 214.63% year-on-year. In Q3 alone, the revenue was 1.754 billion yuan, marking an 84.64% increase [17][18]. - The company has significantly increased its export revenue, which now accounts for nearly 80% of its total income, benefiting from high-margin offshore products. The gross profit margin reached 31.12%, and the net profit margin was 19.31%, reflecting a strong improvement in profitability [18][19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation that the stock price will outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next 6-12 months [2][5]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant reduction in losses for the first three quarters of 2025, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of -34.03 billion RMB, compared to -65.05 billion RMB in the same period of 2024, indicating a notable improvement [8]. - The company's gross margin and cash flow have improved year-on-year, reflecting stable operations. The gross margin for Q3 2025 was reported at 4.89%, marking a continuous increase over two consecutive quarters [8]. - The "anti-involution" strategy is being effectively implemented, with expectations for price recovery across the photovoltaic industry chain, which could lead to improved profitability [8]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 50,914.57 million RMB, a decrease of 13.10% year-on-year. The operating profit was -4,045.16 million RMB, showing a reduction in losses compared to the previous year [9]. - The company’s EBITDA for 2025 is projected to be 1,825 million RMB, with a significant recovery expected in 2026 and 2027 [7]. - The latest diluted earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025 is -0.61 RMB, a downward revision from the previous estimate of 0.75 RMB [5][7]. Market Position and Shareholder Information - The total market capitalization of the company is approximately 159,972.85 million RMB, with 7,578.06 million shares outstanding [4]. - Major shareholder Li Zhenguo holds a 14.08% stake in the company, indicating a significant level of insider ownership [4].

Investment Rating - The report rates the chemical industry as "Outperforming the Market" [2] Core Views - The report highlights the decline in international oil prices and methionine prices, while prices for VA and VE have increased. It suggests focusing on sectors mentioned in the "14th Five-Year Plan," undervalued leading companies, the impact of "anti-involution" on supply, and electronic materials companies under the context of self-sufficiency [2][3][10] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - In the week of October 27 to November 2, among 100 tracked chemical products, 29 saw price increases, 39 saw declines, and 32 remained stable. 28% of products had month-on-month price increases, while 57% saw declines [10][34] - The average price of sulfuric acid, vitamin E, nitric acid, sulfur, and hydrochloric acid increased, while the prices of raw salt, acetic acid, coal tar, and methanol decreased [10][34] - International oil prices fell, with WTI crude oil futures closing at $60.98 per barrel, down 0.85%, and Brent crude at $65.07 per barrel, down 1.32% [10][35] Price Trends - Vitamin A prices rose to 62 CNY/kg, up 1.64% week-on-week, while vitamin E prices increased to 50 CNY/kg, up 8.70% week-on-week. Both products are experiencing tight supply conditions [36] - Methionine prices decreased to 20.3 CNY/kg, down 1.46% week-on-week, with production increasing to 16,600 tons [37] Investment Recommendations - As of October 31, the TTM P/E ratio for the basic chemical sector is 24.39, at the 72.21% historical percentile, while the P/B ratio is 2.21, at the 53.61% historical percentile. The oil and petrochemical sector has a TTM P/E of 12.40, at the 31.95% historical percentile [13] - The report recommends focusing on sectors supported by policies, undervalued leading companies, and sectors with potential for high demand recovery, such as fluorochemicals, agricultural chemicals, refining, dyes, polyester filament, and tires [13][10] - Specific stock recommendations include Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, Satellite Chemical, and others, with a focus on companies like Yangnong Chemical and Tongcheng New Materials [10][13]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Strong Buy" rating for the computer industry, particularly focusing on AI applications and quantum computing [6]. Core Insights - The integration of AI into various applications is deepening, with significant government support and technological advancements driving growth in the sector [6][12]. - Quantum computing is entering a new era with the introduction of NVQLink, which facilitates practical applications by connecting quantum processors with GPU supercomputers [6][17]. - Cursor has transitioned from an AI shell to a native AI programming platform, enhancing its capabilities with new models and interfaces [6][19]. - OpenAI is preparing for a historic IPO, potentially valued at $1 trillion, marking its shift from a non-profit to a profit-driven tech giant [6][22]. - The signing of an 80.5 million yuan contract by Yujian Robotics signifies the commercialization of embodied intelligence in high-precision manufacturing [6][24]. Summary by Sections AI Integration - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the implementation of "AI+" actions, aiming to integrate AI across various sectors, enhancing productivity and innovation [12][13]. - As of September 2025, the active user base for AI applications reached 729 million on mobile and 200 million on PC, indicating robust growth in the sector [12][14]. Quantum Computing - NVQLink, introduced by NVIDIA, connects quantum processors with GPU supercomputers, enhancing computational efficiency and enabling real-time error correction [17][18]. - The system has shown a 200-fold increase in computational speed for molecular simulations while reducing power consumption by 15% [17][18]. AI Programming Platforms - Cursor's new model, Composer, offers a fourfold speed advantage in coding tasks, marking its evolution into a fully integrated AI platform [19][20]. - The platform allows for parallel operation of multiple AI agents, improving coding efficiency and quality through collaborative problem-solving [19][20]. OpenAI's IPO - OpenAI's restructuring aims to bolster its market position, with plans to raise at least $60 billion through its IPO, potentially making it the largest in history [22][23]. Robotics in Manufacturing - Yujian Robotics has secured a significant contract for embodied intelligence robots, indicating a shift from concept to practical application in high-end manufacturing [24][25][26].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [2][4][6] Core Views - The company's Q3 performance showed significant improvement on a quarter-over-quarter basis, benefiting from the domestic PCB (Printed Circuit Board) localization trend [4][9] - The company is positioned as a leading domestic photoresist dry film manufacturer, expected to experience new growth alongside the PCB localization [4][9] Financial Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a revenue of RMB 11.78 billion, a decrease of 22.32% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 687.60 million, down 45.34% year-on-year [9][10] - The company’s Q3 net profit was RMB 1.92 billion, a decrease of 41.79% year-on-year but a significant increase of 102.74% quarter-over-quarter [9] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 have been updated to RMB 0.39, 0.74, and 0.99 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 39.8, 21.2, and 15.8 [6][8] Revenue and Profitability Forecast - The company’s main revenue is projected to be RMB 18.62 billion in 2025, with a growth rate of -2.7% [8] - The EBITDA for 2025 is estimated at RMB 1.14 billion, with a significant increase expected in subsequent years [8] - The gross profit margin for Q3 2025 was reported at 8.89%, a decrease of 2.47 percentage points quarter-over-quarter, while the net profit margin improved by 2.76 percentage points to 4.80% [9][10]

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperform the Market" [2] Core Insights - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes high-quality development in real estate, shifting focus from "housing is for living, not for speculation" to "high-quality development" [2][4] - The plan outlines five key directions for promoting high-quality development in real estate, including optimizing supply, enhancing housing quality, and establishing safety management systems [2][4] Summary by Sections Investment Rating - The report provides a positive outlook for the real estate sector, indicating potential for recovery and growth [2] Key Directions for Development - **New Development Model**: The plan aims to construct a new model for real estate development, focusing on improving regulations around property development, financing, and sales [2][4] - **Optimizing Affordable Housing Supply**: The focus has shifted from merely increasing affordable housing to optimizing its supply to meet the needs of urban workers and disadvantaged families [2][4] - **Increasing Improvement Housing Supply**: The plan emphasizes the need to match existing improvement housing demands more precisely, with a notable increase in larger housing units sold [2][4] - **Quality Housing Initiatives**: The introduction of "good housing" standards aims to enhance the quality and comfort of residential properties, with new regulations set to take effect [2][4] - **Lifecycle Safety Management**: Establishing a comprehensive safety management system for housing throughout its lifecycle is a priority, addressing the safety of older buildings [2][4] Market Dynamics - The report highlights a significant increase in the proportion of larger housing units sold, indicating a shift in consumer preferences towards more spacious homes [7][11] - The urban renewal initiative is expected to accelerate, with substantial investments projected in the coming years [2][4] Policy Implications - The report notes that the "15th Five-Year Plan" includes measures to clear unreasonable restrictions on housing consumption, particularly in first-tier cities, which may lead to a more favorable market environment [2][4] - The emphasis on revitalizing underutilized land and properties is expected to generate new opportunities in the real estate sector [2][4]

Quantitative Models and Construction CPPI Model - **Model Name**: CPPI (Constant Proportion Portfolio Insurance) [35] - **Construction Idea**: Dynamically adjust the allocation between risk assets and risk-free assets based on the gap between current portfolio value and the preset protection target [35] - **Construction Process**: - Calculate the protection target at time t: $ F_{t}=G\times e^{-r(T-t)} $ where $ G $ is the protection amount at the end of the protection period, $ r $ is the risk-free rate, and $ T-t $ is the remaining time [35] - Determine the amount of funds available for risk assets: $ C_{t}=V_{t}-F_{t} $ where $ V_{t} $ is the portfolio value at time t [36] - Adjust risk asset allocation using a risk multiplier $ m $ and an upper limit $ b $: $ \mathrm{E}_{t}=m i n\{m C_{t},b V_{t}\} $ $ \mathrm{E}_{t}=m a x\{m i n\{m C_{t},b V_{t}\},0\} $ $ B_{t}=V_{t}-E_{t} $ where $ E_{t} $ is the amount allocated to risk assets, and $ B_{t} $ is the amount allocated to risk-free assets [37][38] - Monthly rebalancing based on the last trading day’s closing price [39] - **Evaluation**: CPPI effectively reduces asset volatility and drawdowns but may slightly lower annualized returns due to increased allocation to risk-free assets [45] - **Parameters**: - Protection ratio $ \lambda $: [60%, 70%, 80%] - Risk multiplier $ m $: [2, 3] - Risk asset upper limit $ b $: [70%, 80%, 90%] - Risk-free asset annualized return: based on the previous year’s actual return of money market funds [52][43] Risk Budgeting Model - **Model Name**: Risk Budgeting Model [68] - **Construction Idea**: Allocate risk budgets to assets based on their risk characteristics (volatility, upside volatility, or momentum) [70] - **Construction Process**: - Optimize the risk budget allocation using the SLSQP algorithm: $ O b j e c t i v e\,f u n c t i o n=\sum_{i=1}^{n}(R C_{i}-R B_{i})^{2} $ where $ R C_{i} $ is the actual risk contribution of asset $ i $, and $ R B_{i} $ is the risk budget proportion [68] - Three allocation methods: - Volatility ranking: Higher volatility assets receive higher risk budgets - Upside volatility ranking: Higher upside volatility assets receive higher risk budgets - Momentum ranking: Higher past returns receive higher risk budgets [70] - **Evaluation**: Volatility and upside volatility rankings provide higher elasticity but larger drawdowns, while momentum ranking offers more stable returns [77] Daily Net Value Monitoring Mechanism - **Model Name**: Daily Net Value Monitoring Mechanism [79] - **Construction Idea**: Monitor daily portfolio net value to mitigate short-term market shocks [79] - **Construction Process**: - Trigger pre-warning when rolling N-day maximum drawdown exceeds threshold $ \theta $ and net value falls below M-day moving average [80] - Exit pre-warning when net value crosses above M-day moving average [81] - Adjust portfolio to 95% bonds + 5% money market during pre-warning, and revert to risk budgeting weights after stabilization [79][80] - **Evaluation**: Effectively reduces drawdowns and improves risk-return ratios without significantly impacting returns [88] --- Model Backtesting Results CPPI Model - **Annualized Return**: 4.4% to 14.6% depending on asset type [46] - **Volatility**: Reduced by 7.7% to 11.4% compared to original assets [46] - **Maximum Drawdown**: Improved by 7.5% to 19.3% [46] Risk Budgeting Model - **Maximum Drawdown Constraint (3%)**: - Best combination: Annualized return 6.82%, maximum drawdown -2.91%, Sharpe ratio 2.207, Calmar ratio 2.344 [95][96] - **Maximum Drawdown Constraint (5%)**: - Best combination: Annualized return 7.66%, maximum drawdown -4.97%, Sharpe ratio 2.010, Calmar ratio 1.541 [106][108] - **No Maximum Drawdown Constraint**: - Best combination: Annualized return 8.15%, maximum drawdown -6.36%, Sharpe ratio 1.622, Calmar ratio 1.281 [120][121] Daily Net Value Monitoring Mechanism - **Impact on Risk Budgeting Models**: - Improves Calmar ratio by up to 1.101 for 3% drawdown constraint [88] - Reduces pre-warning frequency to less than 6 times/year [94] --- Supplementary Testing Sensitivity Analysis - **3% Drawdown Constraint**: Parameter adjustments have minimal impact on annualized returns; all combinations maintain Calmar > 1 and Sharpe > 1.5 [133][134] - **5% Drawdown Constraint**: Parameter adjustments have minimal impact on annualized returns; all combinations maintain Calmar > 0.8 and Sharpe > 1.5 [135][136] - **No Drawdown Constraint**: Most combinations maintain Calmar > 1 and Sharpe > 1.4, indicating low risk of overfitting [137][138] Validation of CPPI + Daily Monitoring - **Comparison with Original Assets**: - Original assets fail to meet 3% drawdown constraint - CPPI + Daily Monitoring significantly improves Calmar ratio compared to original risk budgeting models [140]

Macro Economic Overview - The macroeconomic report indicates a decline in the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 0.43% this week, with the recommended asset allocation order being stocks > commodities > bonds > currency [1][4] - The manufacturing PMI for October is reported at 49.0%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from September, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector [5][25] Asset Performance Review - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell by 0.43%, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 stock index futures rose by 0.21%. Futures for coking coal and iron ore increased by 3.52% and 3.31%, respectively [2][13] - The annualized yield of Yu'ebao (a money market fund) decreased by 4 basis points to 1.02%, and the yield on ten-year government bonds fell by 5 basis points to 1.80% [2][39] Asset Allocation Recommendations - The report maintains the asset allocation order: stocks > commodities > bonds > currency, with a focus on the implementation of "incremental" policies [3][4] - The production index for October is at 49.7%, down 2.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slowdown in manufacturing procurement activities [3][5] Industry Insights - The report highlights that the manufacturing sector is experiencing a phase of procurement slowdown, influenced by fewer working days due to overlapping holidays and ongoing impacts from U.S. tariff policies [3][5] - The automotive industry shows a mixed performance, with a forecast of approximately 2.4 million units sold in October, reflecting a stable consumer demand despite high previous year comparisons [41][36] Commodity Market Analysis - The commodity futures index decreased by 1.96% this week, with notable increases in coking coal and iron ore, while other commodities like precious metals and chemical products saw declines [50][39] - The report notes that the coal and steel sectors are showing resilience, with significant price increases in coking coal and iron ore futures [50][39]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1][2] Core Viewpoints - In September, the Fed initiated its first rate cut of the year, the US dollar index fluctuated, onshore and offshore RMB exchange rates showed mixed trends, and the "three - price" unification trend intensified with stable market expectations [2] - The recent RMB appreciation has increased the negative impact on export enterprises' financial conditions, but China's foreign trade growth remains resilient [2] - Cross - border capital flows continued to be balanced in September, shifting from a small net inflow to a small net outflow, with securities investment being the main contributor [2] - The enhanced willingness to settle foreign exchange led to a continuous surplus in bank foreign exchange settlement and sales for the seventh consecutive month in September, and the surplus reached a record high [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Fed's Rate Cut and RMB Exchange Rate - In September, the Fed started its first rate cut of the year due to increased employment downside risks in the US. The US dollar index first declined and then rebounded, and the RMB exchange rate appreciation slowed down [3] - The RMB central parity rate fluctuated slightly in a narrow range; the onshore and offshore spot exchange rates first rose and then fell. The "three - price" unification trend of the RMB exchange rate intensified, and market expectations were basically stable [4] - The RMB's nominal and real effective exchange rate indices continued to rise, but China's goods export volume still increased year - on - year, indicating that exchange rate changes are not the main factor for China's foreign trade resilience [6] Cross - border Capital Flows - Cross - border capital flows continued to be balanced in September, shifting from a small net inflow to a small net outflow. Securities investment was the main contributor [2] - Foreign investors slowed down their reduction of RMB bonds, and the balance of their RMB stocks continued to increase, but different types of foreign capital flow data showed differentiation, indicating a cautious and optimistic attitude towards participating in the A - share market [2] Bank Foreign Exchange Settlement and Sales - The willingness to settle foreign exchange increased, driving the bank's foreign exchange settlement and sales to have a continuous surplus for the seventh consecutive month in September, and the surplus reached a record high [2] - The change in the domestic foreign exchange supply - demand relationship since March was mainly due to the weakening of market participants' motivation to purchase foreign exchange [2] - In the future, if the exchange rate expectation turns to the appreciation direction, it may trigger a concentrated release of foreign exchange settlement demand [2]

- The report does not contain any specific quantitative models or factors for analysis [1][2][3][4] - The report provides an overview of the A-share market, including style performance and crowding levels, highlighting the relative performance of growth vs dividend, small-cap vs large-cap, micro-cap stocks vs CSI 800, and momentum vs reversal [24][25][33] - Growth vs Dividend: Crowding level is at a historically high position (69%), with cumulative excess net value also at a high level, showing an increase over the past week [33][34][36] - Small-cap vs Large-cap: Crowding level is at a historically low position (34%), with cumulative excess net value at a balanced level, showing an increase over the past week [36][38][39] - Micro-cap stocks vs CSI 800: Crowding level is at a historically high position (82%), with cumulative excess net value at an extremely high level, remaining stable over the past week [39][41][42] - Momentum vs Reversal: Momentum style outperformed reversal style this week, contrary to long-term trends, as the total amount of active stock funds decreased [44][46][49] - The report discusses the relationship between U.S. bond yields and style indices, noting deviations from long-term trends in the past week [44][46][47] - The report provides detailed calculations for style crowding levels and cumulative excess net value, including methodologies for Z-score standardization and rolling historical percentiles [127][128] - The report highlights the historical percentile of institutional research activity across indices, sectors, and industries, with notable activity in upstream cycles and industries like steel and consumer services [109][111][111] - The report includes data on A-share valuation and equity-bond risk premium (ERP), indicating that overall equity allocation is at a balanced level [66][77][86] - The report provides insights into fund flows, including issuance and existing scale of active and passive equity funds, showing mixed trends in recent weeks [90][100][103] - The report tracks major capital indices, showing relative performance against the Wind All A Index, with QFII and private equity indices leading gains [87][88][90] - The report discusses trends in bond yields and the China-U.S. yield spread, highlighting recent changes and historical positions [112][113][117] - The report analyzes currency market trends, noting the appreciation of the onshore and offshore RMB against the USD in the past week [119][121][122] - The report provides an overview of commodity market performance, with mixed results across different indices in China and the U.S. [123][125][126]