Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1][3] Core Viewpoints - The central bank's suspension and resumption of treasury bond trading may reflect its policy intention to maintain yield stability, and the bond market's long - term yield may fluctuate within a range in the next stage [1][3] - The price discovery significance of treasury bond trading operations is stronger than the liquidity adjustment significance, and the current interest rate and spread levels may be within the central bank's desirable range [3] - If the base money injection scale formed by treasury bond trading is close to or higher than the same period last year, it may replace reserve requirement ratio cuts [3] Summary by Related Content Reasons for the Central Bank's Actions - At the beginning of this year, considering the large imbalance pressure in the bond market supply - demand and accumulated market risks, the central bank suspended treasury bond trading. Now, with the change in supply - demand contradictions, the central bank will resume the operation. On the supply side, the proportion of government bonds in social financing has been increasing; on the demand side, due to the blocked decline in interest rates and higher expected returns in the stock market, the bond market has lost its previous strong position among major asset classes [3] Impact on M2 Growth - As of September this year, the year - on - year growth rate of China's base money injection was 1.86%. Assuming the year - end base money year - on - year growth rate remains at 1.86% and the money multiplier reaches 8.9 (the highest in August this year), the corresponding M2 year - on - year growth rate is only 6.4% (Scenario 1) [3] - If an additional 50 billion yuan of base money is injected on the basis of Scenario 1, the year - end M2 year - on - year growth rate will reach 7.8% (Scenario 2), lower than the 9 - month growth rate (8.4%) but higher than the 2024 M2 growth rate (7.3%) [3] - To keep the year - end M2 year - on - year growth rate at 8.4% (the same as in September) without reserve requirement ratio cuts, an additional 70 billion yuan of base money needs to be injected on the basis of Scenario 1 (Scenario 3) [3]

Investment Rating - The report rates the chemical industry as "Outperforming the Market" [2] Core Views - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on the third-quarter earnings season, undervalued industry leaders, the impact of "anti-involution" on supply in related sub-industries, and the increasing significance of self-sufficiency in electronic materials companies [2][15] - It highlights the potential for sustained high oil prices, the ongoing recovery in the oil and gas exploration sector, and the growth opportunities in new materials, particularly in semiconductor and OLED materials [15][20] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - During the week of October 20-26, 2025, 24 out of 100 tracked chemical products saw price increases, while 43 experienced declines, and 33 remained stable. The average price of 28% of products increased month-on-month, while 56% decreased [10][15] - International oil prices rose, with WTI crude oil futures closing at $61.50 per barrel, a weekly increase of 6.88%, and Brent crude at $65.94 per barrel, up 7.59% [10][15] - The report notes that the average price of lithium carbonate for battery-grade reached 75,700.00 CNY/ton, a 3.46% increase from October 1 [10] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the third-quarter earnings, undervalued industry leaders, and the impact of "anti-involution" on supply in related sub-industries. It also emphasizes the importance of self-sufficiency in electronic materials [15] - Long-term investment themes include the sustained high oil prices benefiting the oil and gas sector, rapid development in downstream industries, and the recovery of demand supported by policy initiatives [15][20] Key Stocks - Recommended stocks include China Petroleum, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, China Petrochemical Corporation, and several others in the new materials and electronic materials sectors [15][20]

Investment Rating - The report rates the transportation industry as "Outperform" [1] Core Views - Crude oil freight rates have decreased month-on-month, while container shipping rates on long-distance routes have increased. The China Import Crude Oil Comprehensive Index (CTFI) reported 1632.26 points on October 23, down 8.9% from October 16. The VLCC market remains cautious due to the implementation of special port fees between China and the US, leading to a weak sentiment among shipowners [2][13] - Guangdong Province has released a high-quality development plan for the low-altitude economy, aiming to establish itself as a national leader in this sector. The civil aviation industry has shown steady growth in the first three quarters of 2025, with a total transport turnover of 1220.3 billion ton-kilometers, a year-on-year increase of 10.3% [2][15][16] - In Shenzhen, the monthly delivery volume of autonomous vehicles has surpassed one million, with a year-on-year growth of 12.7% in express delivery volume in September. The postal industry reported a total business income of 152.57 billion yuan in September, up 6.8% year-on-year [2][22][24] Summary by Sections Industry Hot Events - Crude oil freight rates have decreased, while container shipping rates on long-distance routes have increased. The CTFI reported a decrease of 8.9% [2][13] - Guangdong's low-altitude economy development plan aims to optimize airspace management and promote low-altitude logistics [15][16] - Shenzhen's autonomous vehicle delivery volume has exceeded one million, with express delivery volume growing by 12.7% [22][24] High-Frequency Data Tracking - The Baltic Air Freight Price Index has increased month-on-month but decreased year-on-year. The Shanghai outbound air freight price index has shown a month-on-month increase of 6.9% [26] - Domestic cargo flights have increased by 3.05% year-on-year, while international flights have risen by 15.86% [32] - The express delivery business volume in September increased by 12.7% year-on-year, with total business income reaching 127.37 billion yuan [50][54] Investment Recommendations - Focus on the equipment and manufacturing export chain, recommending companies like COSCO Shipping Specialized Carriers, China Merchants Energy Shipping, and Huamao Logistics [4] - Pay attention to the low-altitude economy investment opportunities, recommending CITIC Offshore Helicopter [4] - Consider investment opportunities in the highway and railway sectors, recommending companies like Gansu Expressway and Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway [4] - Explore investment opportunities in the express delivery sector, recommending SF Express, Jitu Express, and Yunda Express [4]

Group 1: Economic Context and Challenges - The "15th Five-Year Plan" coincides with the timeline set by the Third Plenary Session to complete comprehensive reform tasks by 2029, indicating a critical period for China's modernization and reform efforts[2] - The external environment poses significant challenges, with increased geopolitical tensions and intensified competition, particularly in the tech sector between China and the US[4] - The overall judgment for the "15th Five-Year Plan" period indicates a mix of strategic opportunities and risks, with rising uncertainties and instability in the global landscape[4] Group 2: Domestic Market and Innovation - Building a strong domestic market is essential, leveraging China's large-scale market advantages to stimulate internal demand and reduce reliance on macroeconomic policies[9] - The plan emphasizes the need for high-level technological self-reliance, aiming to overcome bottlenecks and enhance competitive advantages in international markets[15] - The government aims to expand domestic demand through various measures, including promoting consumption and investment, with a focus on improving living standards and addressing structural issues[11] Group 3: Economic Performance Indicators - China's goods exports are projected to average 14.43% of the global market share from 2021 to 2025, an increase of 1.16 percentage points compared to the previous five-year period[6] - The net export of goods and services is expected to contribute an average of 0.91 percentage points to economic growth during the same period, with a contribution rate of 16.34%, up by 0.83 and 11.10 percentage points respectively from the previous period[6] - In the first three quarters of 2023, China's economic growth reached 5.2%, surpassing the consensus forecast of 4.8%, despite ongoing challenges in domestic demand and low inflation[9]

Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) closed at 26,434, up 1.0% for the day and 31.8% year-to-date[1] - The HSCEI increased by 1.1% to 9,467, with a year-to-date gain of 29.9%[1] - The MSCI China index rose 1.7% to 89, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 37.7%[1] Commodity Prices - Brent Crude oil price decreased by 0.3% to US$66 per barrel, down 8.5% year-to-date[1] - Gold prices fell by 3.2% to US$3,982 per ounce, but are up 51.7% year-to-date[1] - Copper prices increased by 1.0% to US$10,963 per ton, with a year-to-date rise of 25.0%[1] Economic Indicators - China's industrial profits grew by 21.6% year-on-year in September 2025, up from 20.4% in August 2025[4] - Sales revenue for industrial enterprises in China increased by 2.7% in September, compared to 1.9% in August[4] - The US GDP growth rate for Q3 2025 was reported at 3.8%, exceeding the consensus of 3.0%[2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the social services industry, expecting it to perform better than the benchmark index in the next 6-12 months [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the social services sector has shown stable growth in cultural and tourism consumption during the first three quarters of 2025, with domestic travel reaching 4.998 billion trips, a year-on-year increase of 18.0% [4][30]. - The report anticipates that upcoming policies aimed at promoting service consumption will provide further benefits to the industry [4]. - The social services sector's performance in the last two trading weeks was an increase of 0.83%, ranking 7th among 31 industries in the Shenwan classification [1][12]. Summary by Sections Market Review & Industry Dynamics - The social services sector's sub-sectors showed varied performance, with tourism retail leading at +2.80%, followed by professional services at +1.81% and tourism and scenic spots at +1.13% [16]. - The overall PE (TTM) for the social services industry is 34.83 times, which is at the 31.83% historical percentile, compared to the 13.69 times for the CSI 300 index at the 66.90% historical percentile [20]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong growth certainty in the travel chain and related industries, including Tongcheng Travel, Huangshan Tourism, and Lijiang Co., among others [4]. - It also highlights the potential benefits for hotel brands like Junting Hotel and Jinjiang Hotel due to the recovery of business travel and increased market share post-pandemic [4]. Industry Company News - The report notes that the domestic travel market remains robust, with a significant increase in both the number of trips and spending, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [30]. - It mentions the recent adjustments to the Hainan duty-free shopping policy, which is expected to enhance the tourism experience and boost consumption [29].

Group 1: Profit and Revenue Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises reached CNY 53,732.0 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, with growth accelerating by 2.3 percentage points compared to January-August[1] - In September alone, industrial enterprise profits grew by 21.6% year-on-year, with a month-on-month acceleration of 1.2 percentage points from August[1] - The operating income of industrial enterprises increased by 2.4% year-on-year, slightly up by 0.1 percentage points from January-August, achieving CNY 74.7 per hundred yuan of assets[1] Group 2: Cost and Profitability Metrics - The operating costs of industrial enterprises rose by 2.6% year-on-year, with an increase of 0.1 percentage points compared to January-August[1] - The operating income profit margin for industrial enterprises was 5.3% in the first three quarters[1] - The average collection period for accounts receivable was 69.2 days, shortened by 0.9 days compared to January-August[16] Group 3: Industrial Activity and Price Trends - The industrial added value grew by 6.2% year-on-year, maintaining the same growth rate as January-August, supporting current industrial enterprise profitability[2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) and the PPI for production materials both showed negative year-on-year growth, declining by 2.8% and 3.3% respectively, although the rate of decline slightly narrowed by 0.1 percentage points from August[2] - Manufacturing contributed positively to the overall profitability of industrial enterprises, with a profit increase of 9.9% year-on-year, accelerating by 2.5 percentage points from January-August[10]

Group 1: Key Insights from the Report - The report highlights a focus on advanced manufacturing and new productive forces as key areas for future economic development, emphasizing the importance of solidifying the foundation and comprehensive efforts [5][6] - The report indicates that the A-share market is expected to transition from policy support to structural upgrades, driven by the outcomes of the 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session [8][9] - The report notes that the leading company, Ningde Times, achieved a profit of 49.034 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 36.20%, indicating strong performance and a solid industry position [12][13] Group 2: Industry Performance - The report provides an overview of market indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3950.31, reflecting a 0.71% increase, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 2.02% [3] - The report details the performance of various industry sectors, with the telecommunications sector leading with a 4.73% increase, while the oil and petrochemical sector experienced a decline of 1.36% [4] - The report emphasizes the importance of new energy, advanced manufacturing, and digital infrastructure as key beneficiaries of the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan," indicating a shift towards innovation-driven growth [9][10]

Macro Economic Overview - The report emphasizes the importance of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and its implications for economic growth, focusing on stabilizing growth policies and the development of advanced manufacturing and new productivity [6][22][24] - The macroeconomic indicators show a GDP growth of 5.2% year-on-year for the first three quarters, with a third-quarter growth of 4.8% [5][21] - The report highlights the need for effective implementation of fiscal policies to boost consumption and investment, particularly in the context of the real estate market [6][22] Asset Performance Review - The A-share market saw a significant increase, with the CSI 300 index rising by 3.24% and the CSI 300 futures up by 3.18% [2][13] - The report notes a rise in coal futures by 5.66%, while iron ore futures remained stable [2][13] - The yield on ten-year government bonds increased by 2 basis points to 1.85%, indicating a mixed performance in the bond market [2][48] Asset Allocation Recommendations - The recommended asset allocation sequence is stocks > commodities > bonds > currency, reflecting a bullish outlook on equities [6][48] - The report suggests an overweight position in stocks, particularly in light of the anticipated implementation of "incremental" policies [4][14] - Bonds and currency are recommended for underweight positions due to expected short-term impacts from stock-bond dynamics [4][14] Sector Insights - The technology sector is highlighted as a key area of growth, with confidence boosted by the "14th Five-Year Plan" [43][45] - The report indicates a positive outlook for the automotive sector, particularly in smart and electric vehicles, supported by government initiatives [45][46] - The real estate sector is under scrutiny, with policies aimed at stabilizing the market and promoting the revitalization of existing properties [37][48] Economic Data Tracking - The report tracks high-frequency data, noting an increase in steel production rates and a decrease in social inventory for construction materials [27][32] - It also highlights fluctuations in consumer spending, particularly in the automotive sector, with a slight increase in wholesale sales [37][40] - The report provides insights into the performance of various commodities, including significant movements in oil and gold prices [17][48]

- The report does not contain specific quantitative models or factors for analysis, construction, or testing results. It primarily focuses on market trends, style performance, valuation, and fund flows without detailing quantitative methodologies or factor construction processes.