证券研究报告：固定收益报告 福建属于传统意义上的好区域，不在重点省份的名单之列，经济 财政实力未处于第一梯队，但好在债务负担也偏轻。从 2024 的数据 表现来看，福建单论经济财政实力并不算特别突出，只能属于"第二 梯队"。福建省 2024 年的 GDP 为 57,761.02 亿元，一般预算收入 2,329.73 亿元，政府性基金收入为 1,787.51 亿元。但福建省的杠杆 程度同样不算高，2024 年福建政府债务结构分布较为均衡，从债务绝 对规模来看，与贵州省较为接近。 发布时间：2025-06-16 研究所 分析师:梁伟超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523070001 Email:liangweichao@cnpsec.com 分析师:李书开 SAC 登记编号:S1340524040001 Email:lishukai@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《杠杆可以更积极点——流动性周报 20250615》 - 2025.06.16 信用周度观点 漳州：境外债的机会有多大？ ——信用周报 20250616 ⚫ 漳州：境外债的机会有多大？ 漳州在福建地级市排序中属于"独一档"的中等偏上的水平，经 济财 ...

Report Information - Report Type: Fixed Income Report - Release Date: June 16, 2025 - Analysts: Liang Weichao, Cui Chao [2] Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Views - High - frequency economic data shows production differentiation, with the steel industry chain in decline and some sectors like asphalt, semi - steel tires, and PTA seeing an uptick. The real estate market is experiencing a marginal decline, and price trends are also diverse. Shipping indices are at relatively high levels. Short - term focus should be on new growth - stimulating policies, the real estate market recovery, and US tariff policy changes [2][31] Summary by Directory Production - In the week of June 13, the utilization rate of coke oven capacity decreased by 0.97 pct, blast furnace operating rate dropped by 0.15 pct, and rebar production decreased by 10.89 tons. The operating rate of petroleum asphalt increased by 0.2 pct, PX operating rate decreased by 0.3 pct, PTA operating rate increased by 0.26 pct, full - steel tire operating rate decreased by 2.23 pct, and semi - steel tire operating rate increased by 4.12 pct [3][9][10] Demand - In the week of June 8, the transaction area of commercial housing decreased, the inventory - to - sales ratio increased, land transaction area declined, and the premium rate of residential land transactions decreased. Movie box office decreased by 110 million yuan compared to the previous week. Automobile manufacturers' daily average retail sales decreased by 52,500 vehicles, and daily average wholesale sales decreased by 117,800 vehicles. In the week of June 13, the SCFI dropped by 6.79%, CCFI rose by 7.63%, and BDI increased significantly by 20.51% [3][13][15][18] Prices - In the week of June 13, Brent crude oil prices rose by 11.67% to $74.23 per barrel, coking coal futures prices dropped by 0.71% to 773.5 yuan per ton, LME copper, aluminum, and zinc futures prices changed by - 0.24%, + 2.10%, - 1.35% respectively, and domestic rebar futures prices fell by 0.70%. The overall price of agricultural products decreased, with pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits changing by - 0.98%, - 3.58%, - 0.46%, - 0.13% respectively compared to the previous week [3][21][22][24] Logistics - In the week of June 14, subway passenger volume in Beijing and Shanghai increased, domestic flight volume increased while international flight volume decreased, and the peak congestion index in first - tier cities rebounded. Beijing's subway passenger volume increased by 261,400 person - times with a weekly change of 2.82%, Shanghai's increased by 795,700 person - times with a weekly change of 8.67%. Domestic (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) flight volume increased by 58 flights with a weekly change of 0.47%, international flight volume decreased by 69.43 flights with a weekly change of - 3.78%, and the first - tier city peak congestion index increased by 0.14 with a weekly change of 9.05% [4][26][28] Summary - Steel production declined, and crude oil prices increased significantly. High - frequency economic data shows production differentiation, a marginal decline in the real estate market, diverse price trends, and relatively high shipping indices. Short - term focus should be on new growth - stimulating policies, the real estate market recovery, and US tariff policy changes [31]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Diffusion Index Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The diffusion index is used to monitor the critical points of market changes and predict potential turning points in the micro-cap stock index[5][35] - **Model Construction Process**: The diffusion index is calculated based on the relative price changes of constituent stocks over a specific time window. For example, if the horizontal axis is 0.95 and the vertical axis is 15 days, a value of 0.19 indicates that if all constituent stocks drop by 5% after 5 days, the diffusion index value will be 0.19. The formula and methodology are not explicitly provided but rely on historical and predictive data of constituent stocks[35][37] - **Model Evaluation**: The model is effective in identifying market turning points and provides actionable signals for left-side and right-side trading strategies[5][36] 2. Model Name: First Threshold Method (Left-Side Trading) - **Model Construction Idea**: This method triggers a sell signal when the diffusion index reaches a predefined threshold, indicating a left-side trading opportunity[5][39] - **Model Construction Process**: The first threshold method triggered a sell signal on May 8, 2025, when the diffusion index reached 0.9850[39] - **Model Evaluation**: It is suitable for early identification of market risks but may lead to premature signals in volatile markets[5][39] 3. Model Name: Delayed Threshold Method (Right-Side Trading) - **Model Construction Idea**: This method delays the sell signal until the diffusion index reaches a lower threshold, providing a more conservative approach[5][41] - **Model Construction Process**: The delayed threshold method triggered a sell signal on May 15, 2025, when the diffusion index reached 0.8975[43] - **Model Evaluation**: It reduces the risk of false signals but may miss early opportunities[5][43] 4. Model Name: Dual Moving Average Method (Adaptive Trading) - **Model Construction Idea**: This method uses two moving averages to adapt to market trends and trigger trading signals[5][44] - **Model Construction Process**: The dual moving average method triggered a sell signal on June 11, 2025[44] - **Model Evaluation**: It balances between early and delayed signals, making it suitable for dynamic market conditions[5][44] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Diffusion Index Model - Current value: 0.70[35] - Predicted low point: Next Wednesday, with a potential cumulative decline of over 6%[5][36] 2. First Threshold Method - Triggered sell signal: May 8, 2025, at 0.9850[39] 3. Delayed Threshold Method - Triggered sell signal: May 15, 2025, at 0.8975[43] 4. Dual Moving Average Method - Triggered sell signal: June 11, 2025[44] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: PE_TTM Inverse Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the inverse of the price-to-earnings ratio based on trailing twelve months (TTM) earnings[4][15] - **Factor Construction Process**: Rank IC for the week: 0.187 (historical average: 0.018)[4][15] - **Factor Evaluation**: Demonstrates strong predictive power for the week, significantly outperforming its historical average[4][15] 2. Factor Name: Profitability Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Evaluates the profitability of constituent stocks[4][15] - **Factor Construction Process**: Rank IC for the week: 0.177 (historical average: 0.023)[4][15] - **Factor Evaluation**: Shows robust performance, exceeding historical averages[4][15] 3. Factor Name: Unadjusted Stock Price Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Tracks the raw stock price without adjustments for splits or dividends[4][15] - **Factor Construction Process**: Rank IC for the week: 0.13 (historical average: -0.017)[4][15] - **Factor Evaluation**: Positive performance, reversing its historical negative trend[4][15] 4. Factor Name: Dividend Yield Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the dividend yield of stocks[4][15] - **Factor Construction Process**: Rank IC for the week: 0.118 (historical average: 0.022)[4][15] - **Factor Evaluation**: Consistently outperforms its historical average[4][15] 5. Factor Name: PB Inverse Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the inverse of the price-to-book ratio[4][15] - **Factor Construction Process**: Rank IC for the week: 0.116 (historical average: 0.034)[4][15] - **Factor Evaluation**: Strong weekly performance, well above historical norms[4][15] --- Factor Backtesting Results Top 5 Factors (Weekly Rank IC) 1. PE_TTM Inverse Factor: 0.187[4][15] 2. Profitability Factor: 0.177[4][15] 3. Unadjusted Stock Price Factor: 0.13[4][15] 4. Dividend Yield Factor: 0.118[4][15] 5. PB Inverse Factor: 0.116[4][15] Bottom 5 Factors (Weekly Rank IC) 1. 1-Year Volatility Factor: -0.188[4][15] 2. 10-Day Free Float Turnover Factor: -0.166[4][15] 3. Residual Volatility Factor: -0.143[4][15] 4. Trading Volume Factor: -0.142[4][15] 5. 10-Day Total Market Cap Turnover Factor: -0.139[4][15]

Market Performance Review - The A-share market experienced slight declines, with most major indices falling, except for the ChiNext Index, which was the only major index to rise, primarily driven by blue-chip stocks [3][12] - The performance of the A-share market was influenced by external political events, including the Israel-Iran conflict, which heightened global market risk aversion and led to significant increases in gold and oil prices [3][16] - The overall market did not establish a new trading theme, continuing the pattern of new consumption stocks rising and then retreating, alongside the valuation recovery of innovative pharmaceuticals [3][16] A-share High-Frequency Data Tracking - The personal investor sentiment index showed slight recovery, with a 7-day moving average of 4.6% as of June 14, up from -4.0% on June 7, indicating a shift from persistent pessimism to a more normalized trading phase [4][17] - The financing transaction volume in the A-share market has seen a notable decline, reflecting a decrease in investor enthusiasm, although there was a slight net inflow this week [20] - The current state of industry rotation is characterized by high speed and low intensity, suggesting a market environment prone to sideways movement [21][23] Future Market Outlook and Investment Views - The report anticipates continued market volatility, with external factors such as US tariffs and the Israel-Iran conflict potentially causing further impacts on the A-share market [4][30] - The A-share market may see upward movement during the internal policy window in July, with expectations for stimulus policies in consumption and real estate sectors [4][30] - The recommendation is to focus on dividend stocks with good value, particularly in sectors like banking, transportation, and utilities, while waiting for clearer internal demand stimulus policies to catalyze traditional consumption trades [5][30]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Leverage can be more aggressive, and positions can be heavier. The certainty of loose funds allows for a more active leverage strategy, and a heavier position can increase bargaining chips in subsequent market games [2][3][17]. - The growth of financing is mainly from the government sector, and the gap between deposit and loan growth rates is still being repaired. The risk of the bank's liability side has been significantly alleviated, reducing the risk of liquidity tightening [2][9]. - The two operations of the repurchase agreement mainly aim to reduce uncertainty, and the change in the scale of medium - and long - term liquidity injection this month may be small [2][11]. - The downward breakthrough of the overnight price center is related to the recovery of the large banks' lending capacity, and the downward trend of the capital price center has not reached its end [2][13]. - Seasonal fluctuations in capital prices will still exist. In the first and middle of July, capital prices may continue the downward trend, and the capital market may return to a stable and loose state [3][15]. Summary by Directory 1 Leverage can be more aggressive - **Previous Views Summary** - There is a possibility that the capital market will be more loosely liquid than expected. There is a chance that the capital price center will be below 1.4%. - The reasonable pricing center for the NCD of state - owned and joint - stock banks after the decline of capital prices in the future may be 1.6%. Currently, 1.7% is too high, and it has obvious allocation value, but it is difficult for the CD interest rate to decline significantly in June. - The main line of the bond market is the downward repair of liability costs and the return repair of position losses, which requires time. After the interest rate reaches a relatively low level, trading often fluctuates between "anticipating the market" and "falling behind" [8]. - **Financing and Credit Situation** - In May, credit growth was still weak. Corporate sector credit increased less year - on - year, and the long - term credit of the household sector showed a stable trend. Corporate sector bond financing increased slightly year - on - year, possibly related to the opening of the bond technology board. Government bonds increased by 236.7 billion year - on - year, and the growth of financing still relied on the government sector [9]. - **Function of Repurchase Agreement Operations** - The two operations of the repurchase agreement this month totaled an injection of 1.4 trillion, but considering the possible 1.2 trillion maturity in the same month, the net injection scale for the whole month is not large. The MLF and the repurchase agreement are currently in a relatively balanced state, and the space for large - scale incremental injection is decreasing. These two operations should be considered comprehensively [11]. - **Factors Affecting Capital Price Center** - The downward breakthrough of the overnight price center is related to the recovery of the large banks' lending capacity. After April, the liability risk problem of large banks has been significantly alleviated. The performance of the capital market in the past two weeks has verified that the large banks' lending capacity has recovered, and the downward trend of the capital price center has not ended [13]. - **Seasonal Fluctuations of Capital Prices** - In mid - June, there is the impact of the tax period, and in late June, the cross - quarter factor will dominate the trend of capital prices. Near the end of the month, fiscal funds may be released to supplement liquidity. In July, the tax period is relatively large, and the fluctuation of the capital market may increase. Before that, in early and mid - July, capital prices may continue the downward trend, and the capital market may return to a stable and loose state [3][15]. - **Bond Market Strategy** - Recently, the short - end and long - end of the bond market still have downward space, but the long - end space is still limited. The 1 - year treasury bond has returned to the recent low, and it is not difficult for it to break through downward. The downward range of short - end treasury bond interest rates can be larger than that of other short - end varieties, which may bring some changes to the flat treasury bond yield curve. Therefore, the leverage strategy can be more aggressive, and a heavier position can increase bargaining chips in subsequent market games [3][17].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Viewpoints - The innovation drug theme continues to gain momentum, with investment opportunities in traditional Chinese medicine innovation drug development companies [5][14] - The innovation drug sector has seen a significant recovery in stock prices due to accumulated industry advancements and improved funding conditions, leading to increased public fund allocations [5][14] - Short-term fluctuations are expected, but a positive outlook for the innovation drug market is maintained over the next 2-3 years, driven by overseas expansion and favorable funding conditions [6][14] Weekly Performance Summary - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector rose by 1.4%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.66 percentage points, ranking 5th among 31 sub-industries [7][22] - The medical research outsourcing sector had the highest increase at 4.76%, while the vaccine sector saw the largest decline at 3.34% [7][22] Recommended and Beneficiary Stocks - Recommended stocks include: Yingke Medical, Maipu Medical, Yihe Jiaye, Weidian Shengli, Gongdong Medical, Pilin Bio, Yifeng Pharmacy, Daclin Pharmacy, Kangchen Pharmaceutical, Zoli Pharmaceutical, Guilin Sanjin, Tianshi Li, Xinlicheng, Meinian Health, and International Medicine [8][30] - Beneficiary stocks include: Shanwaishan, Yirui Technology, United Imaging, MicroPort, Junzheng Technology, BGI Genomics, Mindray Medical, Aohua Endoscopy, Linuo Pharmaceutical, Xinmai Medical, Kefu Medical, Zhonghong Medical, Runda Medical, Shengxiang Bio, BGI Genomics, Berry Genomics, Kingmed Diagnostics, Jiuan Medical, Wanfu Biology, Tiantan Biology, Aier Eye Hospital, Gushengtang, Jinxin Reproductive, Global Medical, Fangsheng Pharmaceutical, Guizhou Sanli, WuXi AppTec, Kanglong Chemical, Kylin Biopharma, and Nuotai Bio [8][30] Subsector Insights - The medical device sector is expected to benefit from the "old-for-new" policy and is projected to see significant growth starting in Q2 2025 [26] - The IVD sector is under pressure but has potential for recovery through AI-assisted diagnostics and new data services [31] - The blood products sector is experiencing a stable demand for albumin and immunoglobulin, with a focus on companies with strong operational efficiency [32] - The offline pharmacy sector is undergoing consolidation, with leading pharmacies expected to benefit from improved customer flow and profitability [35] - The traditional Chinese medicine sector is anticipated to recover as the impact of previous policies diminishes, with a focus on high-quality OTC products [39]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the market [6][7]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 250.69 billion yuan for 2024, a decrease of 9.69% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 27.40 billion yuan, down 13.85% year-on-year. However, the first quarter of 2025 showed a net profit increase of 35.52% year-on-year, driven by higher sales volumes of key products [7]. - The company is expanding its production capacity and enhancing its international presence, with significant investments in R&D amounting to 733 million yuan, focusing on basic research and new technologies [7]. - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 31.44 billion yuan, 33.67 billion yuan, and 37.45 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.10, 1.18, and 1.31 yuan [7][8]. Company Overview - The latest closing price of the company's stock is 10.68 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 305 billion yuan. The company has a debt-to-asset ratio of 38.8% and a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.36 [3][4]. Financial Forecasts - The company is expected to see a revenue increase in the coming years, with projected revenues of 272 billion yuan in 2025, 302 billion yuan in 2026, and 321 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting growth rates of 8.32%, 11.16%, and 6.45%, respectively [8][9]. - The EBITDA is forecasted to grow from 46.92 billion yuan in 2024 to 58.90 billion yuan in 2027, indicating improving operational efficiency [8].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the coming months [6][9][12]. Core Views - The demand for nitrocellulose is increasing while supply is contracting, positioning the company as a leading global player in this market, which is expected to benefit significantly from the growing ammunition demand [7][8]. - The company's financial performance is showing signs of recovery, with a projected revenue increase of 34% in 2025, reaching 2.61 billion yuan, and a substantial profit growth forecast of 412% [6][9]. - The long-term prospects for military nitrocellulose exports and its application in environmentally friendly fireworks are promising, indicating potential new market opportunities [8][9]. Company Overview - The latest closing price of the company's stock is 13.20 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 7.2 billion yuan [4]. - The company reported a significant decline in revenue in 2024, with a total revenue of 1.947 billion yuan, down 9.83% year-on-year, and a net profit of -28.31 million yuan, a decrease of 150.99% [6][12]. - The company aims to achieve a revenue target of 2.6 billion yuan in 2025, with a net profit of 140 million yuan [6][12]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2.61 billion yuan, 3.21 billion yuan, and 3.87 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 137 million yuan, 300 million yuan, and 428 million yuan [12][13]. - The company is expected to see a significant improvement in its profit margins, with EBITDA projected to rise from 39.38 million yuan in 2024 to 533.19 million yuan by 2027 [12][13].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7] Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading player in the semiconductor components sector, focusing on mechanical and electromechanical components as well as gas transmission systems, which have been validated by major domestic and international clients and are in mass production [2][3] - The company anticipates a revenue of 3.04 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 47.14%, with net profit expected to reach 203 million yuan, a 20.13% increase [2][9] - The company is implementing a large customer strategy, with 69.75% of its revenue coming from mainland China, which has grown by 43.95% year-on-year [3] - The company is expanding its global footprint with production bases in key regions, including Shenyang, Nantong, Beijing, and Singapore, to enhance service delivery and meet customer demands [3] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The latest closing price is 52.51 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 16.1 billion yuan and a total share capital of 3.06 billion shares [1] Financial Performance - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 4.025 billion yuan, 5.350 billion yuan, and 7.030 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 213 million yuan, 412 million yuan, and 646 million yuan [7][9] - The company expects a gross margin improvement from 25.8% in 2024 to 29.6% in 2027 [12] Strategic Initiatives - The company is pursuing acquisitions to enhance its semiconductor component platform, including a planned acquisition of Beijing Yisheng Precision Semiconductor Co., Ltd. for up to 800 million yuan [6] - The company is also investing in Zhejiang Poxin Electronic Technology Co., Ltd. to gain a stake in the international gas transmission system manufacturer Compart, aiming to leverage its technology and global supply chain [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [1] Core Views - The company has launched a new employee stock ownership plan, reflecting strong confidence in its future performance. The plan involves a maximum of 3.421105 million shares, accounting for approximately 0.63% of the total share capital, with a total funding of no more than 163 million yuan. The plan includes performance targets for 2027, requiring either revenue of at least 10 billion yuan or net profit of at least 1.5 billion yuan [4] - The company is focusing on cost control and operational efficiency, particularly in high-value sectors such as automotive electronics and overseas markets. This includes optimizing customer structure and increasing the proportion of high-margin business, which supports gross margin improvement. The company is also investing in R&D to enhance product performance while reducing unit costs, creating a positive cycle of performance enhancement and cost optimization [5] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 2025 at 7.02 billion yuan, 2026 at 8.33 billion yuan, and 2027 at 10 billion yuan. Corresponding net profits are projected to be 1.23 billion yuan, 1.48 billion yuan, and 1.78 billion yuan for the same years, respectively. The "Buy" rating is maintained based on these forecasts [6] - The company is expected to achieve the following financial metrics: - Revenue growth rates of 11.53% for 2024, 16.27% for 2025, 18.67% for 2026, and 20.17% for 2027 - Net profit growth rates of 8.50% for 2024, 22.99% for 2025, 20.08% for 2026, and 20.06% for 2027 [8][10]