图说债市月报 2025 年 3 月 1 日 — 3 月 3 1 日 债券市场研究系列 关注关税冲突下利率走势变化 ——2025 年 3 月图说债市月报 作者： 中诚信国际 研究院 侯天成 tchhou@ccxi.com.cn 卢菱歌 lglu@ccxi.com.cn 谭 畅 chtan@ccxi.com.cn 联系人： 中诚信国际研究院 院长 袁海霞 hxyuan@ccxi.com.cn 【图说债市月报】债市调整幅度较大，降准降 息仍有机会密切关注资金面动态-2025年2月 【图说债市月报】发行升温信用风险整体可 控，多空交织或加大债市波动-2025年1 月 隐性债务监管高压态势不变强调防范"处置风险的风险" 信用债发行升温收益率普遍下行， 本期要点 展望及策略建议 展望后市，债市流动性或有缓和，但波动风险仍需警惕。3 月中下旬以来，央 行通过 MLF 操作等加大流动性呵护力度，央行副行长也多次表示将根据国内外 经济金融形势"择机降准降息"，强化市场对宽松政策的预期。近期关税冲突 推升避险情绪，带动债券市场走强，但潜在波动风险仍需关注。4 月 2 日，美 国宣布多项关税政策，对我国加征 34%个性化对等关税， ...

2025 年 4 月 热点点评 中美关税博弈再起： 作者： 中诚信国际 研究院 卢菱歌 lglu@ccxi.com.cn 郝云龙 ylhao@ccxi.com.cn 谭 畅 chtan@ccxi.com.cn 中诚信国际研究院 院长 袁海霞 hxyuan@ccxi.com.cn 民企债券融资支持力度再升级，新举措能 否带来新突破？——交易商协会民企14 条 点评，2025 年 3 月 4 月 2 日，美国宣布多项关税政策，对贸易伙伴设立 10%的"最低 基准关税"，并对部分贸易伙伴征收更高关税，其中对我国加征 34% 个性化对等关税，同时计划终止从中国内地和中国香港输美小额包裹 的免税待遇。我国也快速反应进行反制，4 月 4 日国务院宣布自 4 月 10 日起，对原产于美国的进口商品，在现行适用关税税率基础上加征 34%关税。本次美国对等关税范围和税率均大幅超出市场预期，中美 贸易摩擦再度升级，扰动资本市场表现，对经济修复、市场情绪和风 险偏好等多方面产生影响。对我国债券市场而言，相关影响或主要体 现在三方面： 一、加征关税影响我国进出口，避险情绪升温及基本面修复 承压短期利好债市 此次美国加征关税，短期内对 ...

Group 1: PMI Data Insights - The manufacturing PMI for March 2025 is reported at 50.5%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month[2] - The new orders index rose to 51.8%, up 0.7 percentage points, indicating improved demand[12] - The service sector PMI increased to 50.3%, reflecting a 0.3 percentage point rise, while the construction PMI reached 53.4%, the highest since June of the previous year[9] Group 2: Economic Trends and Challenges - Despite the positive PMI trends, the overall economic recovery remains weak, with manufacturing PMI still below seasonal averages[2] - The manufacturing sector is experiencing passive destocking, with finished goods inventory index dropping to 48.0%, indicating a supply-demand gap[4] - Price indices for both factory and raw material purchases fell by 0.6 and 1.0 percentage points, respectively, suggesting ongoing price pressures on profitability[4] Group 3: Sector Performance - High-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing sectors are showing significant recovery, with PMIs of 52.3% and 52.0%, respectively[4] - Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) saw a notable rebound in PMI, with small enterprises reaching 49.6%, the highest level since June of the previous year[4] - The construction sector is facing challenges due to funding pressures and low new order indices, which fell to 43.5%[9]

信用利差周报 地方政府债与城投行业监测周报 2022 年第 9 期 隐性债务监管高压态势不变强调防范"处置风险的风险" 2025 年 3 月 3 1 日—4 月 3 日 总第 557 期 2025 年第 13 期 债券市场研究 作者： 中诚信国际 研究院 【信用利差周报2025年第12期】三部门发 文支持科技型企业债券融资，5000 亿元特 别国债定向注资国有大行 2025-4-1 【信用利差周报 2025 年第 11 期】3 月信用 债发行遇冷，交易所多维发力畅通投融资 双循环 2025-3-25 【信用利差周报2025年第10期】央行进一 步回笼资金，情绪驱动收益率延续调整 2025-3-18 【信用利差周报 2025 年第 9 期】"科技板" 开启债市支持科创新篇，量价齐跌市场持 续调整 2025-3-11 【信用利差周报 2025 年第 8 期】绿色债券 市场迎扩容与创新机遇，央行等五部门表 态下大力气改善民企融资 2025-3-4 【信用利差周报 2025 年第 7 期】央行部署 创新宏观审慎政策工具，债市调整收益率 全面上行 2025-2-25 郝云龙 ylhao@ccxi.com.cn 卢菱歌 ...

监测周报 2025 年 3 月 24 日—2025 年 3 月 30 日 总第 337 期 2025 年第 11 期 隐性债务监管高压态势不变强调防范"处置风险的风险" 地方政府债与城投行业 上交所"3 号指引"引导城投"真转型" 湖南率先出台专项债"自审自发"方案 ——地方政府债与城投行业监测周报 2025 年第 11 期 本期要点 ◼ 要闻点评 ◼ 地方政府债与城投债交易情况 作者： 中诚信国际 研究院 中诚信国际研究院 院长 袁海霞 hxyuan@ccxi.com.cn 【地方政府债与城投行业监测周报 2025 年 第 10 期】第二批 2 万亿债务置换额度已完 成六成，山东淄博落地区县级非标置换专 项贷款，2025-03-28 【地方政府债与城投行业监测周报 2025 年 第 9 期】两办印发《提振消费专项行动方 案》，河南郑州出台专项债土地收储细则， 2025-03-20 【地方政府债与城投行业监测周报 2025 年 第 8期】专项债支持土地储备政策升级 置换隐债专项债发行进度近半，2025-03-14 【地方政府债与城投行业监测周报 2025 年 第 7 期】融资平台经营性金融债务减少至 14.8 ...

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Recently, two public REITs projects in the data center field have entered the application and issuance process, marking the expansion of the asset scope of public REITs to the data center field, which is conducive to broadening corporate financing channels, revitalizing existing assets, and promoting the development of REITs in the science - innovation field in China to a new stage. More data center public REITs may be launched in the future, and REITs projects of other basic asset categories in the science - innovation field may also be approaching [3] - In February 2025, the issuance of asset - securitized products in the whole market continued to cool down, with the scale decreasing by 35% compared with the previous period, and the issuance costs of individual products were relatively high [4] - In the secondary market, the overall trading enthusiasm was average, and the performance of the inter - bank and exchange markets was differentiated [20] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Overall Market Issuance Situation - In February 2025, 100 issues of asset - securitized products were issued in the whole market, with a total scale of 88.452 billion yuan, a 35% decrease from the previous period. The average issuance costs of micro - enterprise loan and lease asset products were relatively high [4] - Supply chain accounts receivable, quasi - REITs, and infrastructure toll products had relatively low sub - layer ratios, while the layer ratios of lease asset products varied greatly [5] 2. Issuance Situation in Inter - bank and Exchange Markets - Inter - bank market ABS: One product was issued, with a scale of 1.5 billion yuan, and the issuance scale decreased compared with last month. The product priority was AAAsf - rated, and the issuance cost was 2.05% [7] - Dealer Association ABN: 32 issues were issued, with a total scale of 28.448 billion yuan, and the issuance scale increased slightly compared with last month. The coupon rates of priority products with disclosed credit ratings ranged from 1.85% to 4.30%. There were 6 issues without sub - products, accounting for 19%, and the sub - layer ratios of the remaining products ranged from 0.04% to 15% [7] - Exchange ABS: 67 issues were issued, with a total scale of 58.504 billion yuan, and the issuance scale decreased significantly compared with last month. The coupon rates of priority products with disclosed credit ratings ranged from 1.90% to 4.20% [19] - There was 1 issue of public REITs issued this period. There were 3 issues without sub - products, accounting for 4%, and the sub - layer ratios of the remaining products ranged from 0.03% to 20% [18] 3. Secondary Market - Inter - bank market ABS: The total trading volume in February was 283.6 million yuan, with a cooling of trading and a sluggish market. Products with non - performing loans as underlying assets had the largest trading scale [20] - Dealer Association ABN: The total trading volume was 3.6697 billion yuan, and the trading enthusiasm declined. Among products with disclosed underlying assets, quasi - REITs, accounts receivable and other categories had relatively large trading scales, and the trading performance of different products was differentiated [20] - Exchange ABS: The total trading volume was 5.4251 billion yuan, and the trading scale increased compared with last month. The Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges had trading volumes of 4.3104 billion yuan and 1.1147 billion yuan respectively. Quasi - REITs, accounts receivable, CMBS/CMBN and other categories had relatively high trading enthusiasm [21][24]

信用利差周报 地方政府债与城投行业监测周报 2022 年第 9 期 隐性债务监管高压态势不变强调防范"处置风险的风险" 2025 年 3 月 2 4 日—3 月 28 日 总第 556 期 2025 年第 12 期 债券市场研究 作者： 中诚信国际 研究院 马子喻 zyma@ccxi.com.cn 卢菱歌 lglu@ccxi.com.cn 谭 畅 chtan@ccxi.com.cn 中诚信国际研究院 院长 袁海霞 hxyuan@ccxi.com.cn 【信用利差周报 2025 年第 11 期】3 月信用 债发行遇冷，交易所多维发力畅通投融资 双循环 2025-3-25 【信用利差周报2025年第10期】央行进一 步回笼资金，情绪驱动收益率延续调整 2025-3-18 【信用利差周报 2025 年第 9 期】"科技板" 开启债市支持科创新篇，量价齐跌市场持 续调整 2025-3-11 【信用利差周报 2025 年第 8 期】绿色债券 市场迎扩容与创新机遇，央行等五部门表 态下大力气改善民企融资 2025-3-4 【信用利差周报 2025 年第 7 期】央行部署 创新宏观审慎政策工具，债市调整收益率 全面上行 2 ...

www.ccxi.com.cn 国际宏观资讯双周报 3 月 25 日–4 月 07 日 ➢ 2025 年第 6 期 本周资讯一览 热点评论 ➢ 以色列国内局势动荡不安 右翼强行通过司法任命改革法案 经济 财政 政治 国际收支 | 杜凌轩 | 010-66428877-279 | | --- | --- | | | lxdu@ccxi.com.cn | | 王家璐 | 010-66428877-451 | | | jlwang@ccxi.com.cn | | 于 嘉 | 010-66428877-242 | | | jyu@ccxi.com.cn | | 张晶鑫 | 010-66428877-243 | | | jxzhang@ccxi.com.cn | | 易 成 | 010-66428877-218 | | | chyi@ccxi.com.cn | | 方菏阳 | 010-66428877-567 | | | hyfang@ccxi.com.cn | | 李泽冕 | 010-66428877-570 | | | zmli@ccxi.com.cn | | 纪嘉琦 | 010-66428877-218 | | ...

www.ccxi.com.cn 2025 年 4 月 | 目录 | | --- | 摘要 1 市场环境及行业政策 2 证券行业动态 4 证券行业业务发展状况 6 证券行业财务及风控指标状况 12 证券行业展望 17 联络人 | 作者 | | | --- | --- | | 金融机构部 | | | 赵婷婷 | 010-66428877 | | | ttzhao@ccxi.com.cn | | 徐济衡 | 010-66428877 | | | jhxu@ccxi.com.cn | | 盛雪宁 | 010-66428877 | | | xnsheng@ccxi.com.cn | 其他联络人 | 金融机构部 评级总监 | | | --- | --- | | 王雅方 | 010-66428877 | | yfwang@ccxi.com.cn | | | 金融机构部 评级副总监 | | | 孟航 | 010-66428877 | | hmeng@ccxi.com.cn | | 中诚信国际行业展望 中诚信国际 行业展望 证券行业 中国证券行业展望，2025 年 4 月 在一系列利好政策的推动下，2024 年主要指数较上年末 ...

www.ccxi.com.cn 2025 年 4 月 | 目录 | | --- | 摘要 1 市场环境及行业政策 2 证券行业动态 4 证券行业业务发展状况 6 证券行业财务及风控指标状况 12 证券行业展望 17 联络人 | 作者 | | | --- | --- | | 金融机构部 | | | 赵婷婷 | 010-66428877 | | | ttzhao@ccxi.com.cn | | 徐济衡 | 010-66428877 | | | jhxu@ccxi.com.cn | | 盛雪宁 | 010-66428877 | | | xnsheng@ccxi.com.cn | 其他联络人 金融机构部 评级总监 王雅方 010-66428877 yfwang@ccxi.com.cn 金融机构部 评级副总监 孟航 010-66428877 hmeng@ccxi.com.cn 中诚信国际行业展望 中诚信国际 行业展望 证券行业 中国证券行业展望，2025 年 4 月 在一系列利好政策的推动下，2024 年主要指数较上年末有所上涨， 证券行业发展整体呈现先抑后扬趋势。未来证券公司仍将延续目 前股权收购、兼并整合浪潮，头部 ...