Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the real estate industry, highlighting signs of price stabilization and the effective implementation of supportive policies [4][12][17]. Core Insights - The real estate market is showing signs of stabilization in housing prices, supported by recent policy measures aimed at boosting market confidence and facilitating transactions [4][12][17]. - Recent tax policy adjustments have reduced the financial burden on homebuyers and developers, which is expected to stimulate both new and second-hand housing transactions, particularly in first-tier cities [5][6][9]. - The introduction of special bonds for the acquisition of idle land and urban village redevelopment is anticipated to further consolidate market recovery by addressing supply-demand imbalances [9][10][11]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The report notes that housing prices are stabilizing, with October showing a reduction in the rate of decline in new residential prices across 70 major cities [14][15]. - The transaction volume for both new and second-hand homes has remained high, with significant year-on-year improvements expected as the year-end approaches [14][15]. Policy Impact - Recent tax reforms have lowered the deed tax rates for home purchases, particularly benefiting first-time buyers and those looking to upgrade their homes [6][9]. - The government has expanded support for urban village redevelopment, increasing the number of eligible projects and thereby enhancing market demand [11][13]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report highlights a decrease in the inventory of unsold homes, with the total area of unsold residential properties continuing to decline [18][19]. - Despite a high level of unsold inventory, the rate of new construction has slowed, which may help to balance supply and demand in the market [18][19]. Financing and Market Confidence - The bond market for real estate companies remains stable, with no new defaults reported, indicating a controlled risk environment for investors [20]. - The report emphasizes that the recent policy measures have bolstered market confidence, leading to improved sales performance among major real estate firms [14][15].

Group 1 - The issuance of supply chain asset-backed securities (ABS) in the first three quarters of 2024 saw a total of 183 transactions, with a total issuance scale of 914.79 billion, representing a decrease of 25.18% compared to the same period last year [2][4][25] - The average issuance interest rate for 1-year AAA-rated supply chain ABS was 2.52%, down 63 basis points year-on-year, with the minimum rate at 2.03% and the maximum at 4.56% [12][18][59] - The core enterprises involved in the issuance of supply chain ABS primarily consisted of state-owned enterprises, with 85 core enterprises across 19 regions, covering 15 major industries [25][29][36] Group 2 - The distribution of issuance by management companies showed that the top five management companies accounted for 52.43% of the new management scale, with Huatai Securities leading at 14.16% [4][6] - The structure of the issued products indicated that 74.83% of the total issuance scale was from products with a subordinate scale of 1 million, while 86.88% of the products were fully credit-enhanced [56][59][61] - The geographical distribution of core enterprises showed that Beijing, Guangdong, and Fujian accounted for 65.67% of the total issuance scale, with Beijing alone contributing 33.40% [30][36][41]

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Economic Overview - CPI and PPI have both declined, indicating that inflationary pressures are under control[1] - In October, the industrial added value increased by 5.3% year-on-year, maintaining stability despite a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous value[5] - The manufacturing investment grew by 9.3% year-on-year from January to October, showing a marginal improvement of 0.1 percentage points[5] Consumer Trends - The total retail sales of consumer goods (social retail) increased by 3.5% year-on-year, with a significant rise of 4.8% in October compared to the previous month[5] - Retail sales of goods improved significantly, with a year-on-year growth of 5% in October, driven by the "old-for-new" policy and the "Double Eleven" shopping festival[5] - The sales of home appliances and communication equipment related to the "old-for-new" policy surged by 39.2% and 14.4% year-on-year, respectively[5] Investment and Infrastructure - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) grew by 4.3% year-on-year from January to October, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous value[5] - Real estate development investment decreased by 10.3% year-on-year, with a slight improvement in sales area and sales amount decline rates[6] - The new construction area in real estate has seen a year-on-year decline of 22.6%, continuing a trend of over 20% contraction for 18 consecutive months[6]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a contraction trend in the innovative products of the insurance asset management industry for the first three quarters of 2024, with a focus on debt investment plans as the main product type [1][2][39]. Core Insights - The innovative products in the insurance asset management industry are experiencing a decline in both registration numbers and scale, with debt investment plans accounting for over 78% of the total, although this represents a year-on-year decrease [2][39]. - The introduction of a "10 trillion" debt resolution initiative aims to alleviate the debt pressure on local government financing vehicles, although the actual implementation and differentiation in local government transformations need to be monitored [1][39]. - The central bank's signals to stabilize the real estate market may help improve market sentiment, but the fundamental performance of real estate companies has not shown significant improvement [1][39]. - The government encourages agricultural enterprises to issue financing tools and supports the regular issuance of infrastructure REITs, indicating potential investment opportunities in these areas for insurance funds [1][39]. Summary by Sections Product Operation Analysis - In the first nine months of 2024, the number and scale of innovative products in the insurance asset management industry continued to shrink, with debt investment plans remaining the primary product type, accounting for 78.06% of the total [2][3][39]. - The registration of debt investment plans has seen a decline in both quantity and scale, with a total of 249 plans registered in 2024, down 16.44% year-on-year [7][39]. Institutional Operation Analysis - Allianz Asset Management led in the registration of debt investment plans, while Minsheng Tonghui Asset Management ranked first in the number of asset-backed plan registrations [23][39]. - The registration scale of equity investment plans showed a significant concentration, with China Life Asset Management accounting for over 90% of the industry’s equity investment plan scale [23][39]. Industry Policy Review - The report highlights the ongoing adjustments to the "package debt resolution policy," which includes a new debt limit of 10 trillion yuan to replace existing hidden debts of local governments [29][39]. - The central bank's recent policies aim to stabilize the real estate market and improve expectations, which may have a positive impact on market conditions [32][39]. Observations and Outlook - The overall trend for innovative products in the insurance asset management industry is expected to continue contracting, but these products remain crucial for investment and financing [37][39]. - There is potential for insurance asset management to invest in agricultural enterprises, REITs, and green investment projects, aligning with government policies [37][39].

Core Insights - The report indicates that in the first three quarters of 2024, the issuance of accounts receivable asset-backed securities (ABS) totaled 69 products, with a total issuance scale of 962.28 billion, representing a year-on-year decrease of 11.07% in scale despite an increase of 6 products compared to the same period last year [2][26] - The financing cost for one-year AAA-rated ABS is reported to be between 1.90% and 2.40%, with a median decrease of approximately 60 basis points year-on-year [2][15] - The actual financing entities are primarily central enterprises and their subsidiaries, accounting for 87.43% of the total issuance scale, which is an increase of 1.83 percentage points year-on-year [6][26] Issuance Overview - In the first three quarters of 2024, the Shanghai Stock Exchange accounted for 61 products with an issuance amount of 916.96 billion, representing 95.29% of the total issuance, while the Shenzhen Stock Exchange had 8 products totaling 45.31 billion, accounting for 4.71% [5] - The top five original equity holders in terms of issuance scale include China Railway Capital Co., Ltd., China Railway Trust Co., Ltd., China Railway Construction Asset Management Co., Ltd., Shenzhen Hairun Commercial Factoring Co., Ltd., and China Communications Commercial Factoring Co., Ltd., with a combined issuance scale of 710.56 billion, accounting for 73.84% [5][6] Market Activity - In the secondary market, the total transaction volume for accounts receivable ABS in the first three quarters of 2024 was 720.68 billion, a decrease of 32.63% year-on-year, with 1,812 transactions recorded, down 24.81% [24] - The report notes that the average issuance scale of single products has significantly decreased, with the average issuance scale being 13.95 billion, down 18.81% year-on-year [11][26] Product Characteristics - The weighted average maturity of the accounts receivable ABS is reported to be 2.19 years, which is a reduction of 0.22 years compared to the previous year [12][26] - The distribution of securities ratings shows that AAA-rated securities accounted for 90.71% of the total issuance, while AA+ rated securities made up 5.91% and subordinate securities accounted for 3.38% [14][26] Regulatory and Filing Status - A total of 70 accounts receivable ABS special plans were filed with the Asset Management Association of China in the first three quarters of 2024, with a total scale of 982.57 billion, reflecting a decrease of 17.94% in scale compared to the previous year [22][26]

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Economic Growth - China's GDP growth for the first three quarters of 2024 was 4.8%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points compared to the first half of the year[5] - In Q3, GDP growth was 4.6%, down 0.1 percentage points from Q2[5] - Final consumption's contribution to GDP growth significantly declined, contributing only 49.9%, down 10.6 percentage points from previous values[11] Policy Measures - A series of incremental policies were introduced in September, including accelerated issuance of special bonds, aimed at stabilizing the economy[6] - The government has approximately 5 trillion yuan available for fiscal spending in Q4, which is expected to support economic growth[6] Investment Trends - Manufacturing investment maintained a high level, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 9.2% in the first nine months of 2024[18] - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) showed a year-on-year growth of 4.1%, but this was a decrease from previous months[18] Consumer Behavior - Retail sales growth was 3.3% year-on-year in the first nine months, with a marginal increase to 3.2% in September[20] - Consumer confidence remains low, with the consumer confidence index dropping to 85.8, a historical low[20] External Pressures - External pressures include ongoing trade tensions with the US and EU, which are expected to impact exports negatively in Q4[26] - The export growth rate in September was 2.4%, a significant drop of 6.3 percentage points from previous months[20] Inflation and Prices - CPI in September rose by 0.4%, but the core CPI was at a low of 0.1%, indicating deflationary pressures[22] - PPI continued to decline, with a year-on-year drop of 2.8% in September, affecting corporate profitability[23] Financial Stability - Government bond financing remains a major support for social financing, with M2 growth stabilizing at 6.8% in September[27] - The overall financing scale in Q3 was 7.56 trillion yuan, higher than the average of previous years[27] Future Outlook - The economic growth target for Q4 is set at 5.4% to achieve an annual growth rate of 5%[26] - The anticipated economic growth for Q4 is approximately 5.3%, supported by fiscal spending and infrastructure investment[6]

Group 1: Export Performance - In October 2024, China's export amount reached $309 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 12.7%, significantly up by 10.3 percentage points from the previous month[1] - The export growth was supported by a low base effect from the previous year, where the export amount had decreased by 6.6%[1] - Exports to ASEAN countries increased by 10.8%, contributing 1.7 percentage points to the overall export growth[3] Group 2: Import Trends - In October 2024, the import amount in dollar terms decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, a decline of 2.6 percentage points from the previous month[5] - From January to October 2024, the total import amount was $2.14 trillion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.7%, which is a decrease of 0.5 percentage points compared to earlier figures[5] - The import of raw materials like crude oil and iron ore showed negative growth, with crude oil imports down by 2.8% and iron ore by 1.6%[5] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The report indicates that the export growth may face pressure in the future due to the fading "rush to export" effect and uncertainties following the recent U.S. elections[6] - The manufacturing PMI for October returned to above the neutral line, suggesting a potential improvement in domestic demand[6] - The overall trade data reflects a strong export performance but weak import growth, indicating a need for policies to stimulate domestic demand[6]

| --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 2024 年等 57 其 | 宏观经济 PMI 数据点评 | | | 增量政策效果有所显现,PMI 重回景气区间 ――10月PM ...