www.ccxi.com.cn 2025 年 4 月 目录 | 要点 | 1 | | --- | --- | | 正文 | 2 | | 结论 | 25 | 联络人 | 作者 | | --- | | 结构融资一部 | | | --- | --- | | 张 希 | 010-66428877-490 | | | xzhang01@ccxi.com.cn | | 周星辰 | 010-66428877-592 | | | xchzhou@ccxi.com.cn | | 张 弛 | 010-66428877-474 | | | chzhang@ccxi.com.cn | | 刘祚亨 | 010-66428877-691 | | | zhliu@ccxi.com.cn | 其他联络人 结构融资一部 评级总监 王 立 010-66428877-523 lwang03@ccxi.com.cn 中诚信国际 特别评论 不良资产证券化 中诚信国际行业评论 2024年，商业银行不良贷款余额继续上升，不良资产处置力度进一步加大，资产质量总体平稳；城 农商行不良资产处置压力较大，中小金融机构改革化险有序推进 近年来商业银行不良贷款余额及 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given text Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's retail commercial real estate is facing challenges such as slowing consumption growth, online channel diversion, and high property vacancy rates. However, the stabilizing macro - economy, increased consumption stimulus policies, and financial support policies are driving the industry into a structural adjustment period [1]. - Consumption downgrade is spurring the transformation of the immersive experience economy, and the operation model of retail commercial real estate is shifting towards "light - heavy combination" and "data - empowered" models. Developers capable of differentiated positioning, format innovation, and refined operation will gain an edge in the competition [1][2]. - The low - interest environment and the expansion of REITs are reshaping the industry logic, and the securitization process of high - quality assets is accelerating. The industry may gradually shift from "driven by residential sales" to "operation - driven + capital operation" [1][2] Summary by Directory Points - Affected by reduced income growth and weak consumer confidence, China's consumption market growth has slowed, and the operation of retail commercial real estate is challenged. However, the stabilizing macro - economy and increased consumption policies are expected to boost the market and concentrate resources on high - quality enterprises [2]. - The investment scale of China's retail commercial market has been declining, but the supply in some cities with high vacancy rates is still large. In 2024, the overall rent of shops decreased, with first - tier cities having an earlier rent decline inflection point and higher rent stability than second - and third - tier cities. Despite falling rents, retail property large - scale transactions are active [2]. - Leading domestic operators of retail properties are expanding, and the industry concentration is further increasing. Currently, high - end retail properties are under pressure, while brand operators in third - and fourth - tier cities are more valuable. The operation model of retail commercial real estate is transforming, and developers with differentiated advantages will take the lead [2]. - The low - interest environment and diverse financing channels are favorable for the development of commercial real estate. The dependence of retail commerce on residential sales is decreasing, and the expansion of consumer infrastructure REITs has great potential for development [2] Main Concerns - The consumption of catering, clothing, cosmetics, and gold and silver jewelry, which are closely related to retail commercial real estate, is sluggish, and online consumption is diverting offline consumption. However, the stabilizing macro - economy, increased consumption policies, and the implementation of the retail innovation and improvement project are conducive to the long - term stability of the retail commercial real estate operation market and the concentration of resources on high - quality enterprises [3] Conclusion - China's retail commercial real estate is facing challenges such as slowing consumption growth, online channel diversion, high vacancy rates, and homogeneous competition. However, the stabilizing macro - economy, increased consumption policies, and optimized financing environment are driving the industry into a structural adjustment period. Operators capable of differentiated positioning, format innovation, and refined operation are expected to break through first [33]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint In February 2025, the issuance scale of enterprise asset - backed securities increased significantly year - on - year, but the issuance cost increased month - on - month. The secondary market trading volume and turnover also showed an upward trend year - on - year, and there were 142 securities due for repayment in March 2025, with a total scale of 40.117 billion yuan [5][23][27]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Issuance Situation - In February 2025, 67 enterprise asset - backed securities were issued, with a total issuance scale of 58.504 billion yuan. Compared with the previous month, the number of issuances decreased by 58, and the scale decreased by 44.46%. Compared with the same period of the previous year, the number increased by 21, and the scale increased by 39.21% [5][6][23]. - In terms of issuance venues, the Shanghai Stock Exchange issued 47 products with an amount of 40.645 billion yuan (69.47% of the total), and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange issued 20 products with an amount of 17.859 billion yuan (30.53% of the total) [6]. - Regarding the distribution of original equity holders, the top five original equity holders' issuance scale totaled 21.141 billion yuan, accounting for 36.14%, and the top ten totaled 32.961 billion yuan, accounting for 56.34% [7]. - For the distribution of managers, the top five managers' new management scale totaled 30.327 billion yuan, accounting for 51.84%, and the top ten totaled 46.492 billion yuan, accounting for 79.47% [9][12]. - The underlying asset types mainly included personal consumer finance, enterprise financial leasing, quasi - REITs, micro - loans, and auto financial leasing. Personal consumer finance products accounted for 27.35% of the scale [13]. - The highest single - product issuance scale was 3.531 billion yuan, and the lowest was 0.107 billion yuan. The number of issuances in the (5, 10] billion yuan range was the largest, with 31 single - products, accounting for 45.32% of the total amount [16]. - The shortest product term was 0.79 years, and the longest was 39.02 years. The number of products with a term in the (1, 3] - year range was the largest, with 44 single - products, accounting for 60.25% of the scale [18][19]. - According to the issuance scale of each level of securities, AAAsf - rated securities accounted for 88.71% [19]. - The issuance interest rate of one - year - around AAAsf - rated securities had a median that increased by about 19BP month - on - month and decreased by about 61BP year - on - year [5][21][23]. 3.2 Filing Situation In February 2025, 93 enterprise asset - backed securities were filed with the Asset Management Association of China, with a total scale of 73.676 billion yuan [5][24]. 3.3 Secondary Market Trading Situation - In February 2025, there were 2,585 transactions of enterprise asset - backed securities in the exchange market, with a total turnover of 54.414 billion yuan. The number of transactions decreased by 4.58% month - on - month, and the turnover increased by 7.00%. Year - on - year, the number of transactions increased by 52.51%, and the turnover increased by 64.59% [5][25]. - The Shanghai Stock Exchange had 1,993 transactions with an amount of 42.978 billion yuan (78.98% of the total), and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange had 592 transactions with an amount of 11.435 billion yuan (21.02% of the total) [5][25]. - The more active underlying asset types in the secondary market were quasi - REITs, accounts receivable, CMBS, personal consumer finance, and supply chain, with turnover accounting for 20.02%, 16.10%, 12.91%, 12.57%, and 10.68% respectively [25]. 3.4 March 2025 Maturity Situation - As of the end of February 2025, 142 outstanding enterprise asset - backed securities were due for repayment in March 2025, with a total scale of 40.117 billion yuan [27]. - The underlying asset categories of the due securities were mainly personal consumer finance, supply chain, policy loan against insurance policy, and partnership shares, with due scales accounting for 24.16%, 18.80%, 11.97%, and 9.97% respectively [27]. - From the perspective of original equity holders, Xiamen International Trust Co., Ltd. had 10 due securities with a repayment scale of 6.44 billion yuan (16.05% of the total), China Railway Group Limited had 2 due securities with a repayment scale of 4 billion yuan (9.97% of the total), and Sunshine Life Insurance Co., Ltd. had 2 due securities with a repayment scale of 3 billion yuan (7.48% of the total) [27].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The high-pressure situation of implicit debt supervision remains unchanged, emphasizing the prevention of "risks from risk disposal." The second batch of 2 trillion debt replacement quota has reached 60%. Zibo, Shandong, has implemented a county-level non-standard replacement "special loan" [3][6][15]. - In 2024, the scale of local government bonds issued for debt resolution reached 3.38 trillion yuan, a nearly 1-fold increase year-on-year, the highest in recent years. It is recommended to dynamically adjust the debt resolution rhythm in 2025, implement it earlier, and relieve local pressure in a timely manner [6][7]. - After the debt replacement funds are in place, it is necessary to manage the funds, improve the supervision and early warning system, and enhance the actual efficiency of the replacement funds [6][8]. - It is advisable to study the feasibility of using local government bonds to replace government arrears to enterprises on the basis of comprehensively sorting out the arrears, clarifying the responsible entities, and formulating repayment plans [6][9]. Summary by Directory 1. News Review - **Fiscal Policy Report**: In 2024, 3.2 trillion yuan of local debt quota was allocated for debt resolution, and the actual issuance scale was 3.38 trillion yuan. It is recommended to adjust the debt resolution rhythm in 2025. The fiscal department should strengthen management and prevent policy implementation deviations. Support local governments in repaying arrears to enterprises [6][7]. - **Non - standard Debt Replacement in Zibo**: Linzi Jiuhai Financial Holding Co., Ltd. in Zibo, Shandong, obtained a 30 - million - yuan fixed - asset loan from the Bank of China to replace financial leasing business. The repayment period was extended to 10 years, optimizing the debt structure [6][10]. - **Early Redemption of Bonds**: 25 urban investment enterprises redeemed bond principal and interest in advance, involving 25 bonds with a total scale of 3723 million yuan, a decrease of 2044 million yuan from last week [13]. - **Cancellation of Bond Issuance**: 4 urban investment bonds were cancelled, with a planned issuance scale of 1800 million yuan. As of March 23, 2025, 45 urban investment bonds had been postponed or cancelled, with a total scale of 28.453 billion yuan [14]. 2. Issuance of Local Government Bonds and Urban Investment Bonds - **Local Government Bonds**: The issuance scale and net financing increased. The second batch of 2 trillion implicit debt replacement quota reached 60%. The issuance scale rose 81.15% to 157.067 billion yuan, and the net financing increased 162.69% to 131.755 billion yuan. The weighted average issuance term was 16.32 years, and the weighted average issuance interest rate rose to 2.18% [6][15]. - **Urban Investment Bonds**: The issuance scale and net financing increased, while the issuance interest rate decreased and the spread narrowed. The issuance scale rose 18.07% to 173.861 billion yuan, and the net financing turned positive, increasing by 77476 million yuan to 37632 million yuan. The overall issuance interest rate was 2.64%, and the issuance spread was 97.90BP [6][16]. 3. Trading of Local Government Bonds and Urban Investment Bonds - **Funds**: The central bank conducted 1411.7 billion yuan of reverse repurchases, with a net investment of 37.85 billion yuan. Short - term fund rates mostly increased [21]. - **Credit Rating and Events**: No urban investment enterprises had their credit ratings adjusted, and no urban investment credit risk events occurred [21]. - **Local Government Bonds**: The spot trading volume decreased 12.31% to 554.985 billion yuan, and the maturity yields generally increased by an average of 3.37BP [23]. - **Urban Investment Bonds**: The spot trading volume increased 7.44% to 413.818 billion yuan, and the maturity yields generally decreased by an average of 4.27BP. The spreads of 1 - year, 3 - year, and 5 - year AA + urban investment bonds narrowed [23]. - **Abnormal Trading of Urban Investment Bonds**: 20 bonds of 19 urban investment entities had 24 abnormal trades. Shandong had the most abnormal trades [23]. 4. Important Announcements of Urban Investment Enterprises - 49 urban investment enterprises announced changes in senior management, legal representatives, directors, supervisors, etc., as well as changes in controlling shareholders, actual controllers, equity/asset transfers, name changes, and external guarantees [28].

Revenue Performance - General public budget revenue decreased by 1.6% year-on-year, while government fund budget revenue fell by 10.7%[2] - Overall, broad fiscal revenue declined by 2.9% year-on-year, with a significant gap from the annual budget target of 0.2%[2] - Central revenue dropped by 5.8%, while local revenue increased by 2.0%[5] Expenditure Trends - General public budget expenditure grew by 3.4%, and government fund budget expenditure increased by 1.2%[2] - Broad fiscal expenditure rose by 2.9% year-on-year, but still fell short of the annual budget target of 9.3%[2] - Social security and livelihood expenditure surged by 6.4 percentage points to 43.08% of total expenditure[6] Debt and Fiscal Pressure - Debt interest payments increased by 19.7%, marking the highest growth rate among major expenditure types, reaching 3.48% of general public budget revenue[7] - Estimated local government bond interest payments may exceed 1.4 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of over 7%[7] - Broad fiscal revenue faced pressure, with total revenue at 43,856 billion yuan, down 2.9% year-on-year[11]

2025 年 3 月 热点点评 作者： 中诚信国际 研究院 袁海霞 hxyuan@ccxi.com.cn 汪苑晖 yhwang@ccxi.com.cn 王 晨 chwang01@ccxi.com.cn 三问 2025 年特别国债——全国两会精神学 习系列之三 2025 年政府工作报告的八大关注点——全 国两会精神学习系列之一，2025 年 3 月 "两会"后积极财政的四大关注——全国 两会精神学习系列之二，2025 年 3 月 增量财政政策的七大关注——10.12 财 政部新闻发布会点评，2024 年 10 月 如需订阅研究报告，敬请联系 中诚信国际品牌与投资人服务部 赵 耿 010-66428731 gzhao@ccxi.com.cn www.ccxi.com.cn 简评 MLF 改革： 转向多重价位招标，淡化政策利率属性 简评 MLF 改革： 转向多重价位招标，淡化政策利率属性 二、MLF 转为多重价格招标有利于缓解银行净息差压力，降低综合融资成本 商业银行作为金融体系的重要组成部分，在稳增长、防风险等中需发挥重要作用：一方 面通过债务置换展期等助力地方债务风险化解，缓解融资平台短期流动性压力；另一方面， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Credit bond issuance in March was sluggish, with the scale of cancelled or postponed issuance exceeding 30 billion yuan. After a period of adjustment, credit bond financing is still expected to recover [4][11][12]. - On March 21st, China Securities Depository and Clearing Corporation launched three supportive measures to optimize the market environment and promote the high - quality development of the credit bond market [4][13]. - The Fed maintained the benchmark interest rate and slowed down the pace of balance - sheet reduction. Its policy adjustment affects the US Treasury yield and Sino - US spread, and may have an impact on China's monetary policy [5][17][19]. Summary by Directory Market Hotspots - **Credit bond issuance slump**: The direct cause is the significant increase in interest - rate bond yields, which raises the issuance cost of credit bonds, and the tight capital situation. It also reflects market differences in economic fundamentals and policy expectations. After a period of adjustment, credit bond financing is expected to recover [4][11][12]. - **Exchange market's "three - pronged approach"**: On March 21st, China Securities Depository and Clearing Corporation launched three measures, including allowing credit bond ETFs to conduct margin trading, expanding the scope of repurchase of credit - protected bonds, and temporarily exempting some bond registration and settlement fees, to promote the high - quality development of the credit bond market [4][13][14]. - **Fed's policy adjustment**: The Fed maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25% - 4.5% and slowed down the pace of balance - sheet reduction. Its policy "dilemma" increases the uncertainty of the economic outlook, and may affect China's monetary policy and the Sino - US spread [5][17][19]. Macroeconomic Data - From January to February, China's foreign trade data showed a decline in import and export growth rates, with exports slowing down and imports contracting. The export was 539.941 billion US dollars, with a year - on - year growth rate of 2.3%, a decrease of 8.4 percentage points from the previous value. The import was 369.426 billion US dollars, with a year - on - year growth rate of - 8.4%, a decrease of 9.4 percentage points from the previous value [6]. Money Market - Last week, the central bank net - injected 37.91 billion yuan through open - market operations. The pledged repurchase rates of various tenors showed mixed trends, with the 14 - day and 21 - day rates rising by 23bp and 2bp respectively, and the other tenors falling by 4 - 10bp [7][23][24]. Primary Market of Credit Bonds - Last week, the issuance of credit bonds continued to heat up, with the issuance scale reaching 332.225 billion yuan, an increase of 62.298 billion yuan from the previous period. The average issuance cost of most credit bonds decreased [28]. Secondary Market of Credit Bonds - Last week, the secondary - market trading volume of bonds was 953.8124 billion yuan, showing a slight decline. The yields of interest - rate bonds mostly increased, and the yields of credit bonds showed a divergence between short - and long - term tenors. Most credit spreads narrowed, and most rating spreads widened [42].

山东省具有重要的战略地位，经济规模位居全国前列，近年来山东省围 绕新旧动能转换和绿色低碳高质量发展，逐步确立了"十强"产业集群， 引导企业及产业向高端化、智能化、绿色化、集群化转型升级、加快构 建现代化产业体系；同时山东省政府债务保持了较快的增长，但因其财 政实力较强，一般公共预算收入对政府债务的覆盖程度处于全国中上游 水平，整体债务压力尚可。 近年来，山东省社融增量表现有所波动，但 2024 年社融增量规模仍处于全 国前列，省内融资主要以表内融资、直接融资和政府债券为主。化债背景 下，随着政府债券发行扩容，2024 年表内融资和直接融资占比下降，整体 结构有所调整。 www.ccxi.com.cn 行业分析 2025 年 3 月 中诚信国际 保险资产管理行业研究 化债以来，山东省融资情况及非标债务表现 分析 摘要 另一方面，随着山东省财政的统一部署安排，山东省城投平台非标存量规 模持续收缩，但非标债务类型占比有所分化，融资租赁占比持续上升，债 权计划及信托融资大幅下降。 联络人 作者 创新产品评级部 朱文宇 010-66428877 wyzhu@ccxi.com.cn 王 洋 010-66428877 yw ...

Economic Insights - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates twice this year, with the core inflation forecast raised from 2.5% to 2.8%[11] - South Africa's government debt is projected to exceed 76% of GDP in the medium term, necessitating structural reforms to stimulate economic growth[12] - Saudi Arabia's economy is expected to grow by 1.3% in 2024, supported by a 9% increase in money supply[13] Political Developments - Turkey's political landscape is destabilized following the arrest of opposition leader İmamoğlu, leading to significant market turmoil with the lira dropping 14.5% against the dollar[3][4] - Germany's president signed a fiscal reform allowing for over €440 billion in new debt for defense and infrastructure, marking a significant shift in fiscal policy[7][10] Market Reactions - Turkey's 10-year bond yields surged by nearly 139 basis points to 29.58% amid political unrest and market volatility[4] - Brazil's central bank raised its benchmark interest rate to 14.25% to combat rising inflation and economic uncertainty[19] Regional Economic Trends - Egypt's economy is recovering, with remittances increasing by over 51% to $29.6 billion, aided by a floating exchange rate policy[16] - Argentina's GDP is projected to shrink by 1.7% in 2024, driven by declines in private and public consumption[20] Investment and Funding - Pakistan approved 28 major investment projects from Gulf countries, potentially exceeding $28 billion in total investment[24] - France is launching a €450 million defense fund amid rising security concerns, reflecting increased military spending priorities[25]

特别评论 2025 年 3 月 目录 | 要点 | 1 | | --- | --- | | 主要债务特征 | 2 | | 高额债务成因 | 3 | | 化债举措及成效 | 8 | | 发债城投基本面观察 | 11 | | 总结 | 16 | 联络人 作者 政府公共评级部 唐 晨 chtang@ccxi.com.cn www.ccxi.com.cn 要点 1 行业研究 ◼ 苏南区域在推动经济增长及城市化进程的同时不断积累债务，各地债务压力 分化明显，有息债务较多集中于城投企业，且城投债务行政层级较苏北地区 更为下沉。 ◼ 改革开放后苏南地区在政策引导下逐渐形成以投资推动经济增长的"苏南模 式"，区域经济总量稳居江苏省前列，经济的高速发展带来人口持续增长以 及产业外延式发展需求增加，资金需求加剧促使地方政府通过举债的方式维 持高额固定资产投资；同时，税制改革下财政自给能力的弱化进一步导致苏 南政府的融资需求推升和债务规模扩张，城投托市拿地行为亦加剧了苏南地 区的城投债务压力。 ◼ 苏南五市政府围绕江苏省确立的"三债统管"理念，主要从降本控量、压降 融资性平台和加强风险监测三方面开展债务监管工作并取得切实进展，债务 ...