Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The significant fluctuations in US Treasury bonds are due to the structural contradictions in the US Treasury market, leading to intensified supply - demand imbalances. The recent upward inflation expectations in the US and the repricing of Fed policies have also driven the re - evaluation of risk premiums [9]. - The US Treasury storm may lead to higher financing costs and uncertainty, inhibiting the expansion momentum of the US economy and restricting the scope of monetary policy. The increased volatility of US Treasuries exacerbates the fragility of the financial system, and the weakening of the safety of US Treasuries potentially impacts the international status of the US dollar and may accelerate the reconstruction of the global monetary and financial order [9]. - The probability of this Treasury bond fluctuation triggering a systemic risk is low, but attention should be paid to the impact of Treasury bond trends on the US sovereign credit level [12]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Basic Characteristics and Importance of the US Treasury Market - The US Treasury market is the world's largest and most liquid bond market, a core tool for US fiscal policy and the cornerstone of the global financial system. As of the end of Q1 2025, the outstanding balance of US federal government debt exceeded $36.2 trillion, equivalent to about 125% of GDP. The average daily trading volume has exceeded $630 billion [13]. - It is the anchor of the global financial system. The US Treasury yield (e.g., 10 - year) is the "risk - free interest rate" reference for global asset pricing, and US Treasuries are recognized as safe - haven assets [13]. - It is based on the pillar position of the US dollar in the international monetary system. The US dollar accounts for about 59% of global foreign exchange reserves, making US Treasuries an important part of central banks' foreign exchange reserves [13]. - It is crucial for US fiscal sustainability and the stability of the global financial market. The low financing cost of US Treasuries is key to US fiscal sustainability, and the stability of the Treasury market is vital for global economic and financial stability [14]. 2. Reasons for the Upward Movement of US Treasury Yields (1) Rising Fiscal Financing Demand and Continued Long - term Supply Pressure - In Q1 2025, US fiscal financing demand remained high. As of April 1, 2025, the total federal government debt exceeded $36.2 trillion. The CBO predicts that the budget deficit in fiscal year 2025 will exceed $2 trillion again, accounting for nearly 7% of GDP. The Treasury may gradually increase the issuance scale in the second half of 2025 [15][16]. (2) Upward Inflation Expectations and Fed Policy Repricing Driving Risk Premium Re - evaluation - On April 2, 2025, the Trump administration announced a "reciprocal tariff plan", which is expected to significantly increase import prices and exacerbate imported inflation risks. Multiple think - tanks warn that if major economies take reciprocal counter - measures, the US inflation center may rise by 1.5 - 2 percentage points. This may lead to greater uncertainty in the Fed's monetary policy path [18]. (3) Declining Demand for US Treasuries Leading to Insufficient Market Liquidity and Reduced Trading Depth - In recent years, the liquidity of the US Treasury market has declined. In March 2025, the US capital market fluctuated significantly, and investor confidence weakened. In April 2025, the liquidity indicators of the Treasury market continued to deteriorate, and the bid - ask spread of 10 - year and 30 - year Treasuries reached the highest level since the 2020 "flash crash". Market orders dropped by more than 40% [19]. 3. Potential Impacts and Risks of the Upward Movement of US Treasury Yields (1) The US Treasury Storm Increases Financing Costs and Uncertainty, Inhibiting US Economic Expansion and Restricting Monetary Policy Space - Rising yields directly increase the financing costs of the US real economy. In April 2025, the 30 - year mortgage rate exceeded 7.25%, and the residential transaction volume decreased by about 12% month - on - month. The nominal financing rate of mid - investment - grade corporate bonds exceeded 5.8%, and some capital expenditure projects were postponed [21]. (2) Increased Volatility of US Treasuries Exacerbates the Fragility of the Financial System and Amplifies Systemic Financial Risks at Home and Globally - The significant increase in US Treasury yields is causing a wide - scale re - evaluation of the balance sheets of the financial system, increasing the vulnerability of domestic financial institutions and amplifying global financial stability risks through cross - market linkages. In April 2025, emerging market bond ETFs had a net capital outflow of over $4 billion in the first two weeks [23][25]. (3) The Weakening of the Safety of US Treasuries Potentially Impacts the International Status of the US Dollar and May Accelerate the Reconstruction of the Global Order - The US Treasury market's weakening liquidity and increased volatility are eroding the traditional safe - haven perception of US Treasuries. The issue of US fiscal sustainability is becoming more prominent, which is eroding the credit foundation of the US dollar and may accelerate the shift of international reserve asset allocation to a multi - currency system [26]. 4. Future Scenario Analysis of US Treasury Trends (1) Baseline Scenario (60% Probability): Policy Tends to be Restrained, and the Market Restores Limited Stability - The Trump administration shows some policy convergence after market fluctuations, and the Fed maintains its independence and gradually releases easing signals. In the short term, US Treasury yields may remain at a relatively high level, but the sharp upward trend will slow down, and volatility is expected to converge. In the medium term, if policy stability improves and the Fed gradually cuts interest rates, Treasury yields are expected to decline [28][30]. (2) Risk Scenario (30% Probability): Radical Tariff Policies Lead to a Sharp Rebound in Inflation, Policy Re - tightening, and a Significant Increase in US Treasury Risks - If the US imposes comprehensive tariffs and global energy and commodity prices rise, inflation may rise above 3%. The Fed may be forced to postpone interest rate cuts, and the US economy's "stagflation" expectations will be strengthened. Both short - term and long - term Treasury yields face upward pressure [31]. (3) Crisis Scenario (10% Probability): In Extreme Situations, the Trump Administration Continues to Take Radical Policies and Puts Pressure on the Fed, Leading to Monetary Policy Chaos and a Financial Crisis - If the Trump administration promotes high - intensity fiscal expansion and trade protection measures, and the Fed loses its policy independence, it may trigger a liquidity crisis. The 10 - year yield may soar irrationally, and the US financial system may face a serious systemic financial crisis [32].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - In the context of global trade pattern reshaping and geopolitical evolution, the trade protectionism and tariff policies of the United States have led to increased economic and fiscal pressures in the US, Canada, Mexico, and the EU, and the sovereign credit risks of these regions have generally risen [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 United States - **Economic Risk**: Trade protectionism restrains the US economic outlook, and the inflation expectation caused by tariffs may limit the Fed's interest - rate cut, increasing the "stagflation" risk. The US economic growth rate is expected to slow to below 2% from 2025 - 2026 [3][5]. - **Policy Uncertainty**: The Trump administration's policies reduce the predictability of the US government's policy path, and political polarization intensifies, affecting policy continuity [3][6]. - **Fiscal Sustainability**: The US government's debt level and cost are rising. The tariff policy's effect on alleviating fiscal pressure is doubtful. The fiscal deficit rate is expected to remain above 7% in the medium - term, and the government debt - to - GDP ratio may rise above 110%. The debt interest burden is expected to rise to over 12% of fiscal revenue in 2025 [3][8]. - **Impact on Global System**: The US tariff policy weakens the credit of US dollar assets and may accelerate the evolution of the global governance system towards a more multi - polar and regionalized direction [8]. 3.2 Canada - **Economic Downturn**: Canada's high dependence on US exports makes it sensitive to external shocks. Its GDP growth expectation in 2025 is lowered to below 1%, and steel, aluminum, and energy product tariffs directly impact its exports and manufacturing [3][9]. - **Fiscal Pressure**: The combination of economic slowdown and high - interest rates increases the difficulty of debt management. The interest expenditure is expected to account for about 8.5% of federal fiscal revenue in 2025, and the fiscal deficit may expand [9]. 3.3 Mexico - **Economic Recession Pressure**: Tariff shocks increase the risk of economic recession. The IMF has significantly lowered Mexico's 2025 economic growth forecast to - 0.3%. The manufacturing PMI has fallen below the boom - bust line, and inflation has risen [3][12]. - **Fiscal Challenges**: The fiscal deficit rate will remain at about 5% in 2025. The financial problems of Pemex and the contraction of exports may exacerbate fiscal sustainability risks [12]. - **Sovereign Credit Reassessment**: Mexico's sovereign credit needs to be re - evaluated, and its future depends on achieving re - balance in institutional stability, foreign trade substitution, and fiscal balance [13]. 3.4 EU - **Economic Challenges**: The eurozone economy faces slow growth and inflation. The GDP growth rate in 2025 is only 0.9%, and 1.2% in 2026. The US tariff policy may further weaken its growth power and competitiveness [16]. - **Fiscal Pressure**: EU countries' fiscal pressure is expanding. Defense spending will increase in the medium - to - long - term, and debt will accumulate further. Italy and France's debt - to - GDP ratios are expected to exceed the 2012 levels [19]. - **External Repayment Pressure**: The EU faces dual pressures of monetary policy and financing costs. Rising bond yields increase the government's refinancing cost, and the limited interest - rate cut space may increase the debt - servicing pressure of high - debt countries [20]. - **Governance Changes**: The deepening of tariff policies and geopolitical games accelerates the transformation of the European governance model. The increase in strategic autonomy and the differentiation of member states' geopolitical choices will lead to different sovereign credit risks [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since 2025, the sovereign credit environment in Asia has shown a structural differentiation trend, affected by multiple factors such as the spill - over effect of global tariff policies, geopolitical tensions, and internal growth momentum changes. The differences in policy responses, industrial structures, and external dependence among Asian countries have led to a continuous divergence in sovereign credit trends [6]. - In East Asia, the credit foundation is relatively solid, but external demand weakness and structural fiscal pressures are emerging, and the overall regional risk is rising. In Southeast Asia, there are opportunities for diversified development, but credit risks show a differentiated trend. In South Asia, the foundation is relatively weak, and the pressure of sovereign credit differentiation is increasing [6]. 3. Summary by Directory East Asia - China: Although the tariff war may be an important variable affecting China's economy in the short term, the rapid development of new drivers and increased policy efforts can help mitigate risks. With sufficient government fiscal space, abundant foreign exchange reserves, and a large net international investment position, China's sovereign credit risk outlook is stable. Under different scenarios of US tariff cancellation, the impact on China's exports and GDP varies. The tariff war may also promote China's R & D investment, industrial upgrading, and regional cooperation [7]. - Japan: Tariff shocks weaken Japan's slow economic recovery, the Japan - US game increases the uncertainty of the Bank of Japan's interest - rate hikes, and fiscal pressure intensifies, hindering Japan's fiscal consolidation. The sovereign credit risk outlook is negative. The US tariff policies have affected Japan's auto industry, exports, and domestic demand, and the IMF has lowered Japan's economic growth forecast. The Japan - US trade negotiation also adds to Japan's fiscal pressure [8][10][11]. - South Korea: Due to its high trade dependence on both China and the US, tariff policies will significantly impact South Korea's exports. With long - term political turmoil and "top - level" hollowing - out, there is high uncertainty in domestic demand recovery and policy implementation, and the sovereign credit risk outlook is negative. The IMF has lowered South Korea's economic growth forecast. The South Korean government has submitted a supplementary budget, which may increase the national debt and fiscal deficit rate, but the government debt risk is still controllable [16]. Southeast Asia - Overall situation: The regional centripetal force in Southeast Asia is increasing, and there are opportunities for diversified development under the great - power game. The deepening cooperation between China and ASEAN countries can mitigate external environment fluctuations and drive regional economic growth. However, some countries may face negative impacts from economic and geopolitical risk spillovers, and the sovereign credit risk shows a differentiated trend [20][21]. - Positive - potential countries: Malaysia, Indonesia, and Cambodia may have new development opportunities through regional economic and trade cooperation, which will boost their sovereign credit levels. For example, Malaysia's cooperation with China and Singapore can support its economy; Indonesia's large population and downstream integration strategy can drive economic growth; Cambodia's cooperation with China can enhance its geopolitical status and economic growth [22][23][24]. - Negative - potential countries: Thailand and the Philippines face downward pressure on sovereign credit. Thailand's economic structural problems and industrial upgrading lag may lead to a slowdown in economic growth under external shocks. The Philippines' geopolitical risks are rising due to its military cooperation with the US and internal political struggles, which will affect its economic and trade cooperation and fiscal policies [26]. South Asia - Overall situation: South Asia has experienced rapid economic growth, sufficient demographic dividends, and strong reform momentum, with deficit and debt burdens showing a high - level mitigation trend. However, the uncertainty of tariff policies may exacerbate the differentiation of credit risks among South Asian countries [2][28]. - India: India's strong economic growth, diversified economic structure, and strong external payment ability support its sovereign credit. The deepening cooperation with the US may mitigate tariff risks and enhance long - term economic growth potential. However, the India - Pakistan conflict may have a negative impact on India's sovereign credit [29]. - Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka: These countries are constrained by factors such as lagging industrial structure upgrading, high fiscal and debt pressures, and domestic and geopolitical conflicts. Tariff policies may significantly impact their pillar industries and increase social volatility risks. Global monetary policy fluctuations may also pose challenges to their economic recovery and debt repayment. Cooperation with China can help mitigate external risks [2][30].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The central government's fiscal policy remains actively oriented, with increased investment in people's livelihood, consumption, and long - term development. In 2024, special bonds supported over 40,000 projects and contributed over 350 billion yuan as project capital. From January to May 2025, new local bonds worth 1.98 trillion yuan were issued, a 36.6% increase [5]. - Local government debt management continues to be strengthened. In 2024, the number of local financing platforms decreased by more than 7,000. As of June 29, 2025, the issuance of refinancing bonds for replacing existing implicit debt reached 1.8 trillion yuan, completing 89.8% of the quota [5]. - The issuance scale and net financing of local government bonds and urban investment bonds have changed. The issuance and net financing of local government bonds increased significantly this week, while the issuance scale of urban investment bonds rose, and the net financing turned positive [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. News Review - **2024 Central Final Account Draft and Review Report**: In 2024, fiscal reform and development achieved new progress. The central final account was generally favorable. In 2025, more active fiscal policies were implemented, and local government debt management was strengthened. The number of financing platforms decreased by over 7,000. Future work will focus on optimizing fiscal policies and debt management [5]. - **Inner Mongolia Optimizes Special Bond Management Mechanism and Sichuan Supports Cultural and Tourism Industry Financing**: Inner Mongolia issued an implementation opinion to optimize special bond management from six aspects. Sichuan introduced a decision to support the cultural and tourism industry, which is beneficial for the financing and transformation of cultural and tourism - related urban investment enterprises [5]. - **26 Urban Investment Enterprises Pre - paid Bond Principal and Interest**: This week, 26 urban investment enterprises pre - paid bond principal and interest, involving 27 bonds with a total scale of 6.146 billion yuan, an increase of 2.06 billion yuan from the previous value [5]. - **Two Urban Investment Bonds Cancelled Issuance**: "25 Guangzhou Metro MTN002" and "25 Huai'an Huai'an PPN002" cancelled issuance, with a planned total issuance scale of 2.1 billion yuan. As of June 29, 60 urban investment bonds had been postponed or cancelled this year, with a total scale of 37.448 billion yuan [5]. 3.2. Issuance of Local Government Bonds and Urban Investment Enterprise Bonds - **Local Government Bonds**: This week, 161 local government bonds were issued, with a scale of 641.64 billion yuan, a 145.13% increase from the previous value. The net financing increased by 350.68% to 560.352 billion yuan. The weighted average issuance rate rose by 9.97BP to 1.82%, and the weighted average issuance spread widened by 1.17BP to 11.36BP [5]. - **Urban Investment Bonds**: 213 urban investment bonds were issued, with a scale of 136.601 billion yuan, a 5.99% increase from the previous value. The net financing increased by 449.77 billion yuan to 12.344 billion yuan. The average issuance rate was 2.27%, a 2.49BP increase from the previous value, and the issuance spread widened by 2.82BP to 80.71BP [5]. 3.3. Trading of Local Government Bonds and Urban Investment Bonds - **Urban Investment Rating Adjustment**: On June 24, Zhongchengxin International upgraded the ratings of Hunan Liuyang Urban and Rural Development Group Co., Ltd. and its related bonds from AA+ to AAA. On June 25, Lianhe Credit Rating upgraded the rating of Hunan Yongzhou Xiaoxiangyuan Urban Development Group Co., Ltd. from AA+ to AAA [5]. - **Urban Investment Credit Events and Regulatory Penalties**: No urban investment credit risk events occurred this week [5]. - **Local Government Bonds**: The spot trading volume of local government bonds was 546.611 billion yuan, a 0.40% increase from the previous value. The maturity yields generally increased, with an average increase of 2.29BP [5]. - **Urban Investment Bonds**: The trading volume of urban investment bonds was 377.672 billion yuan, a 0.33% decrease from the previous value. The maturity yields generally increased, with an average increase of 1.78BP. The spreads of 1 - year, 3 - year, and 5 - year AA+ urban investment bonds widened [5]. - **Abnormal Trading of Urban Investment Bonds**: Under the broad - based definition, 22 urban investment entities' 23 bonds had 27 abnormal trades, with a decrease in the number of entities, bonds, and abnormal trading times [5]. 3.4. Important Announcements of Urban Investment Enterprises This week, 33 urban investment enterprises issued announcements regarding changes in senior management, legal representatives, directors, supervisors, etc., as well as changes in controlling shareholders, actual controllers, equity/asset transfers, suspected disciplinary violations, and business scope changes [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The implementation of the "Opinions on Financial Support for Boosting and Expanding Consumption" is expected to promote the release of residents' consumption potential and the upgrading of service supply, inject new impetus into the credit bond market, and optimize the industry and product structure of credit bonds [13]. - The release of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Sub - credit - rated Convertible Bond and Exchangeable Bond Index Series is of positive significance for the high - quality development of the bond market, but its actual impact depends on the differentiation of the domestic credit rating system and the liquidity of different segments [16]. - The official manufacturing PMI continued to improve in June, but industrial enterprise profit growth turned negative year - on - year from January to May. The equipment manufacturing industry played a prominent supporting role, and private enterprises showed strong resilience [5][19]. Summary by Directory Market Hotspots - **Six - department policy on promoting corporate bond issuance in the consumption field**: The "Opinions" aims to improve the long - term mechanism for expanding consumption. It supports service consumption and technology - related enterprises in issuing bonds and promotes the development of retail loan ABS. It is expected to optimize the credit bond structure and increase market activity, but also requires attention to the credit risks of relevant issuers [10][11][13]. - **Release of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Credit - stratified Convertible Bond Index**: The index series provides a diversified performance benchmark and investment target, which helps to improve market transparency and pricing efficiency, and promotes the development of passive investment products. However, its effectiveness depends on the credit rating system and market liquidity [14][15][16]. Macroeconomic Data - **Manufacturing PMI**: In June, the official manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, with continued improvement but still below the expansion range. Large and medium - sized enterprises' PMIs increased, while small enterprises' PMI decreased [5][18]. - **Industrial enterprise profits**: From January to May, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size was 2.72 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year decrease of 1.1%. The profit of the equipment manufacturing industry increased by 7.2% year - on - year, and private enterprises showed strong resilience [19]. Money Market - The central bank net - injected 13672 billion yuan through open - market operations last week. It carried out a 3000 - billion - yuan 6 - month MLF operation on June 25, which was the fourth consecutive month of over - renewal of MLF since March. The 7 - day and 14 - day repurchase rates increased, while other term repurchase rates decreased slightly. The spread between 3 - month and 1 - year Shibor narrowed [23]. Primary Market of Credit Bonds - **Issuance scale**: The issuance of credit bonds heated up last week, with a total issuance scale of 4133.93 billion yuan, an increase of 797.13 billion yuan from the previous period. The infrastructure investment and financing industry's issuance increased, while the industrial bond issuance decreased slightly [7][27]. - **Industry distribution**: The infrastructure investment and financing industry had a net outflow of financing, while in the industrial bond sector, the number of industries with net inflows and outflows was similar. The power production and supply and transportation industries had large net inflows, while the electronics and light manufacturing industries had large net outflows [27][30]. - **Issuance cost**: The average issuance interest rates of most term - grade bonds decreased by 4 - 22bp [7][27][35]. Secondary Market of Credit Bonds - **Trading activity**: The secondary - market bond trading volume was 97543.2 billion yuan, and the average daily trading volume decreased by 963.06 billion yuan, indicating a decline in trading activity [37]. - **Yield trends**: Treasury and policy - bank bond yields showed a long - short differentiation, with the 10 - year treasury bond yield rising 1bp to 1.65%. Most credit bond yields decreased, credit spreads mostly widened, and rating spreads mostly narrowed [37][42][44].

Group 1: Report Core View - The implementation of policies allowing special bonds for land reserve acquisition has led to an acceleration of land acquisition, helping the real - estate industry continue its trend of stopping the decline and stabilizing. The policy can optimize resource allocation, relieve corporate financial pressure, and stabilize market expectations. Additionally, the industry shows signs of a slow recovery in multiple aspects, but still faces challenges [2][3][7] Group 2: Policy and Land Acquisition - Since the policy of allowing special bonds for land reserve acquisition was introduced, as of June 22, 2025, over 4,200 land parcel acquisition plans have been announced, with a capital scale of nearly 477.7 billion yuan. Only 36% of the announced scale of special bonds has been issued, and subsequent issuance is expected to speed up. The planned land acquisition is mainly residential land, and most of the land to be acquired belongs to local state - owned enterprises [2][3][5] - In 2025, the "Government Work Report" proposed to allocate 4.4 trillion yuan of local government special bonds, 50 billion yuan more than the previous year, with land acquisition being one of the key uses. Guangdong was the first province to issue 30.4 billion yuan of special bonds for land acquisition in February 2024. As of June 24, 2025, multiple regions have issued special bonds for land acquisition, with a total issuance scale of about 170 billion yuan [5] Group 3: Market Conditions in May 2025 Demand Side - In May, the month - on - month decline of commercial residential prices continued, and the number of cities with rising prices decreased. However, the year - on - year decline in prices has been narrowing for 7 consecutive months. The year - on - year decline in the sales area and sales amount of commercial housing in May was 4.56% and 7.14% respectively, but the month - on - month growth was 10.34% and 13.14%. The overall performance in the first 5 months was stable. In early June, the performance of different - tier cities was differentiated [9] Supply Side - In May, the total transaction price and premium rate of land in a hundred cities decreased, with significant differentiation among cities. The new construction area remained at a low level, and the cumulative decline in the completed area slightly increased. The unsold area of commercial housing has decreased for 3 consecutive months but is still at a high level. The real - estate development investment scale from January to May decreased by 10.70% year - on - year [10] - In the second - hand housing market, the year - on - year decline in the price index further narrowed, and the month - on - month decline slightly increased. The transaction volume of second - hand housing in 30 key cities decreased by 10% month - on - month and increased slightly by 4% year - on - year, with a slowdown in growth. High - energy - level cities showed strong resilience, but the market was differentiated [10] Bond Market - In May, the domestic bond financing amount decreased month - on - month, and the net financing was still in a net outflow state, with all issuers being central and state - owned enterprises. There was no overseas bond issuance by real - estate enterprises in May, but Xincheng Development successfully issued 300 million US dollars of senior notes in June. From June 27 to the end of July, the domestic bond maturity scale of real - estate enterprises is 35.012 billion yuan, and there are some key enterprises with relatively large maturity scales [11] - In the secondary market, the average daily trading volume of domestic bonds of real - estate enterprises decreased slightly in May, and the trading enthusiasm weakened. The prices of bonds of Chinese real - estate enterprises in the overseas market have not fluctuated significantly since May [12] Group 4: Challenges in Policy Implementation - The special bond land acquisition work faces challenges, including insufficient funds to cover project debts, uncertain future land transfer revenues, and a relatively single subject structure of the land to be acquired [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The high - pressure situation of implicit debt supervision remains unchanged, emphasizing the prevention of "risks from risk disposal". The audit report reveals over a hundred billion yuan of irregular use of special bonds and the persistence of new implicit debt since March 2023, highlighting the need for continuous improvement of debt management mechanisms [5][7][9]. - Guangxi will spare no effort to support Liuzhou in debt resolution, aiming to balance debt reduction and high - quality development [5][10]. Summary by Directory 1. News Review - **Irregular Use of Special Bonds and New Implicit Debt**: The audit report shows that irregularities such as illegal borrowing, false reporting of expenditures, and idle misappropriation of special bonds still exist, involving over a thousand billion yuan. New implicit debt has also emerged since March 2023, along with irregularities like irregular fund collection by urban investment companies and false debt resolution. This indicates the need to improve the regular supervision system for special bonds and address deep - seated institutional issues in debt management [5][7][9]. - **Guangxi's Support for Liuzhou's Debt Resolution**: On June 25, Guangxi held a meeting to support Liuzhou in debt resolution, emphasizing the balance between debt reduction and high - quality development. Resolving Liuzhou's debt is a top priority for the region [10]. - **Early Redemption of Bonds by Urban Investment Enterprises**: Twenty urban investment enterprises redeemed bond principal and interest in advance this week, involving 21 bonds with a total scale of 40.86 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.51 billion yuan from the previous value. Most of these enterprises are from the eastern region, and the majority of their credit ratings are AA [12]. 2. Issuance of Local Government Bonds and Urban Investment Enterprise Bonds - **Local Government Bonds**: This week, the issuance scale and net financing of local government bonds increased, while the issuance interest rate decreased and the spread narrowed. As of now, the issuance progress of new special bonds this year is less than 40%, and the local debt replacement progress has reached 87%. A total of 60 local bonds were issued this week, with a scale of 261.753 billion yuan, and the net financing increased by 167.346 billion yuan to 124.334 billion yuan. The weighted average issuance interest rate dropped by 9.85BP to 1.72%, and the weighted average issuance spread narrowed by 3.37BP to 10.18BP [14]. - **Urban Investment Bonds**: The issuance scale of urban investment bonds increased this week, but the net financing turned negative. The issuance interest rate rose, and the spread widened. A total of 197 urban investment bonds were issued, with a scale of 128.875 billion yuan, an increase of 1.79% from the previous value. The net financing decreased by 445.82 billion yuan to - 32.634 billion yuan. The average issuance interest rate was 2.25%, up 1.74BP from the previous value, and the issuance spread was 77.89BP, widening by 4.95BP [17]. 3. Trading of Local Government Bonds and Urban Investment Enterprise Bonds - **Funding Situation**: The central bank conducted 960.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchases in the open market this week, with 858.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 79.9 billion yuan. Short - term funding rates mostly rose [24]. - **Urban Investment Rating Adjustment**: On June 18, 2025, Dagong Global downgraded the credit rating of Guizhou Guiyang Economic and Technological Development Zone Guihe Investment Development Co., Ltd. from AA to AA - and its bond rating from AA to AA - [24]. - **Credit Events and Regulatory Penalties**: No urban investment credit risk events occurred this week [24]. - **Local Government Bonds**: The trading volume of local government bonds decreased by 12.75% to 544.437 billion yuan, and the maturity yields generally declined, with an average decline of 4.78BP [24]. - **Urban Investment Bonds**: The trading volume of urban investment bonds increased by 15.88% to 378.924 billion yuan, and the maturity yields generally declined, with an average decline of 5.33BP. The spreads of 1 - year and 3 - year AA+ urban investment bonds widened, while that of 5 - year AA+ urban investment bonds narrowed [25]. - **Abnormal Trading of Urban Investment Bonds**: Under the broad - based criteria, 24 urban investment entities had 28 abnormal bond trades, with an increase in the number of entities, bonds, and trading times [25]. 4. Important Announcements of Urban Investment Enterprises - Forty - seven urban investment enterprises announced changes in senior management, legal representatives, directors, supervisors, etc., as well as changes in controlling shareholders, actual controllers, equity/asset transfers, suspected disciplinary violations, changes in the use of raised funds, and external guarantees [28].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In May 2025, 94 corporate asset - backed securities were issued, with a total issuance scale of 83.21 billion yuan. Compared with the previous month, the number of issuances decreased by 54, and the issuance scale dropped by 36.11%. Compared with the same period last year, the number of issuances increased by 19, and the issuance scale rose by 24.96%. The underlying asset types mainly included personal consumer finance, CMBS, corporate financial leasing, accounts receivable, and factoring claims. The interest rate center of AAAsf - rated securities with a term of about one year was roughly between 1.80% and 2.00%, and the median decreased by about 17BP month - on - month and about 37BP year - on - year [5][22]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Issuance Situation - **Overall Issuance**: In May 2025, 94 corporate asset - backed securities were issued, with a total scale of 83.21 billion yuan. Compared with the previous month, the number decreased by 54, and the scale dropped by 36.11%. Compared with the same period last year, the number increased by 19, and the scale rose by 24.96% [5][6][22]. - **Issuance Venue**: In May 2025, the Shanghai Stock Exchange issued 68 products with an issuance amount of 64.898 billion yuan, accounting for 77.99%. The Shenzhen Stock Exchange issued 26 products with an issuance amount of 18.313 billion yuan, accounting for 22.01% [6]. - **Original Equity Holders**: The top five original equity holders in terms of issuance scale were Beijing Financial Street Investment (Group) Co., Ltd. (5.021 billion yuan, 6.03%), Shenghe (Shenzhen) Commercial Factoring Co., Ltd. (4.096 billion yuan, 4.92%), Shanghai Banghui Commercial Factoring Co., Ltd. (4 billion yuan, 4.81%), Shanghai Real Estate Housing Development Co., Ltd. (3.299 billion yuan, 3.96%), and China Railway Trust Co., Ltd. (3.277 billion yuan, 3.94%). The total issuance scale of the top five was 19.693 billion yuan, accounting for 23.67%, and that of the top ten was 33.11 billion yuan, accounting for 39.79% [7]. - **Managers**: The top five managers in terms of new management scale in May 2025 were Ping An Securities Co., Ltd. (15.40%), Huatai Securities (Shanghai) Asset Management Co., Ltd. (12.48%), Shanghai Guotai Junan Securities Asset Management Co., Ltd. (9.93%), CITIC Securities Co., Ltd. (9.77%), and China Merchants Securities Asset Management Co., Ltd. (7.67%). The total new management scale of the top five was 45.96 billion yuan, accounting for 55.23%, and that of the top ten was 62.748 billion yuan, accounting for 75.41% [9][14]. - **Underlying Asset Categories**: The underlying asset types of corporate asset - backed securities issued in May 2025 included personal consumer finance, CMBS, corporate financial leasing, accounts receivable, and factoring claims. Personal consumer finance had 22 products issued, accounting for 19.98% of the scale; CMBS had 7 products issued, accounting for 15.88%; corporate financial leasing had 12 products issued, accounting for 14.84% [12]. - **Product Scale Distribution**: Products with a scale of (5, 10] billion yuan had the largest number of issuances (42), accounting for 41.30% of the total scale [15]. - **Term Distribution**: The shortest - term product was 0.46 years, and the longest - term was 20.90 years. Products with a term of (1, 3] years had the largest number of issuances (47), accounting for 38.80% of the scale [15][17]. - **Level Distribution**: AAAsf - rated securities accounted for 88.12% of the issuance scale [17]. - **Issuance Interest Rate**: The interest rate center of one - year - around AAAsf - rated securities was roughly between 1.80% and 2.00%, with the median decreasing by about 17BP month - on - month and about 37BP year - on - year [20][22]. 3.2 Filing Situation In May 2025, 150 corporate asset - backed securities were filed with the Asset Management Association of China, with a total scale of 137.968 billion yuan [5][23] 3.3 Secondary Market Trading Situation - In May 2025, corporate asset - backed securities had 3,376 transactions in the exchange market, with a total transaction amount of 73.596 billion yuan. The number of transactions decreased by 10.40% month - on - month, and the transaction amount decreased by 27.89% month - on - month. Compared with the same period last year, the number of transactions increased by 44.71%, and the transaction amount increased by 40.72%. The Shanghai Stock Exchange had 2,672 transactions with an amount of 59.593 billion yuan (80.97%), and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange had 704 transactions with an amount of 14.003 billion yuan (19.03%) [5][24]. - The more active underlying asset types in the secondary market in May 2025 were class REITs, CMBS, supply chain, personal consumer finance, and corporate financial leasing, with transaction amount ratios of 26.06%, 12.37%, 11.83%, 10.25%, and 9.36% respectively [24]. 3.4 June 2025 Maturity Situation Analysis - As of the end of May 2025, 167 outstanding corporate asset - backed securities were due for repayment in June 2025, with a total scale of 43.924 billion yuan. - The main underlying asset categories of due securities in June 2025 were accounts receivable, supply chain, specific non - financial claims, and personal consumer finance, with due scale ratios of 36.64%, 19.23%, 17.01%, and 15.22% respectively. - Among the original equity holders, China Cinda Asset Management Co., Ltd. had 1 due security with a repayment scale of 4.03 billion yuan (9.18%); China Railway Capital Co., Ltd. had 1 due security with a repayment scale of 3.799 billion yuan (8.65%); China Orient Asset Management Co., Ltd. had 1 due security with a repayment scale of 3.441 billion yuan (7.83%) [26].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The science and technology innovation bond (Sci - tech Bond) market is at the stage of policy support and market demand superposition. The launch of Sci - tech Bond ETF and the landing of risk - sharing tools will provide more diversified and stable funding sources for science and technology innovation enterprises and enrich investors' asset allocation options [3][12]. - From January to May, the national real estate market continued to adjust, with real estate development investment and sales declining year - on - year, and the market still at the bottoming stage [5][18]. - In the money market, the central bank conducted open - market operations, with net capital withdrawal last week, but carried out large - scale buy - out reverse repurchase operations to ensure a stable end - of - quarter capital situation. Interest rates showed a mixed trend [6][21]. - In the primary market of credit bonds, issuance cooled last week, with a decrease in the issuance scale. The average issuance interest rates of most bonds with different maturities and ratings increased. In the secondary market, trading activity increased, and bond yields generally declined [7][36]. Summary by Directory Market Dynamics - On June 18, 10 public fund companies submitted applications for the first batch of Sci - tech Bond ETF products, marking the product - based implementation stage of the bond market serving science and technology innovation. The Sci - tech Bond market is in a stage of policy support and market demand superposition, and the development of related innovative products will provide more diversified and stable funding sources for science and technology innovation enterprises [3]. - On June 18, the first batch of projects using Sci - tech Bond risk - sharing tools were launched. Five private equity investment institutions successfully issued Sci - tech Bonds with a total scale of 1.35 billion yuan. The mechanism design introduced multiple arrangements such as credit risk mitigation vouchers, guarantee enhancement, and cornerstone investment [4][14]. Macroeconomic Data - From January to May, real estate development investment totaled 3.62 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.7%, with the decline widening by 0.4 percentage points compared to the first four months. New commercial housing sales area was 353 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 2.9%, with the decline widening by 0.1 percentage points [5][18]. - Other macroeconomic data include GDP quarterly year - on - year growth rate, official manufacturing PMI, social consumer goods retail year - on - year growth rate, etc. For example, in the first quarter of 2025, the GDP quarterly year - on - year growth rate was 5.40%, and in May 2025, the official manufacturing PMI was 49.50% [19][20]. Money Market - Last week, the central bank conducted open - market operations and net withdrew 7.99 billion yuan. On June 16, the central bank carried out a 40 - billion - yuan 6 - month buy - out reverse repurchase operation. Near the end of the quarter, the central bank carried out two buy - out reverse repurchase operations, totaling 1.4 trillion yuan, to ensure a stable end - of - quarter capital situation [6][21]. - The 14 - day and 21 - day pledged repurchase rates increased by 13bp and 3bp respectively, while the other term pledged repurchase rates decreased. The 3 - month and 1 - year Shibor both decreased compared to the previous week, and the spread between them narrowed to 4bp [6][21]. Primary Market of Credit Bonds - Last week, the issuance of credit bonds cooled, with the issuance scale at 333.68 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.161 billion yuan compared to the previous period. The infrastructure investment and financing industry and industrial bonds both saw a decrease in issuance scale [7][25]. - In terms of net financing, most industries in industrial bonds showed net financing inflows. In terms of issuance costs, the average issuance interest rates of most bonds with different maturities and ratings increased by 2 - 40bp [7][25]. Secondary Market of Credit Bonds - Last week, the secondary - market trading volume of bonds was 1,023.5849 billion yuan, and the average daily trading volume increased by 8.0377 billion yuan compared to the previous period, indicating increased trading activity [36]. - The yields of interest - rate bonds and credit bonds generally declined. The credit spreads of 1 - year and 5 - year AAA - rated bonds widened by 1 - 8bp, while the other term spreads narrowed, with a change of no more than 10bp. The rating spreads fluctuated, with a change of no more than 5bp [36][43].

Report Overview - The report is the 21st issue of the weekly monitoring report on the local government debt and urban investment industry in 2025, covering the period from June 9 to June 15, 2025 [1][3] Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The State Council Executive Meeting emphasized greater efforts to stabilize and rebound the real estate market, and incremental support policies are expected to be introduced. The real estate market still faces pressure in stabilizing and rebounding, and it is necessary to introduce incremental policies from both supply and demand sides [5][6][7] - Heilongjiang Province improved the emergency reserve fund system for debt repayment to support "bridge financing" for cities and counties with implicit debt repayment gaps. Henan Province promoted state - owned capital investment promotion and accelerated the transformation of urban investment companies into industrial investment companies [9][10] Summary by Directory 1. News Review (1) Real Estate Policy Support - On June 13, the State Council Executive Meeting proposed to build a new real - estate development model, promote the construction of "good houses" in urban renewal, and conduct a survey of real - estate land and projects. Since April, the real - estate improvement has slowed down. The meeting's emphasis on "greater efforts" signals further policy support. Local governments have also introduced measures, such as Guangzhou considering canceling restrictions and Hunan arranging for the acquisition of commercial housing as affordable housing. It is recommended to introduce incremental policies from both supply and demand sides [6][7][8] (2) Debt Management and Investment Promotion - On June 17, Heilongjiang issued a plan to improve the fiscal budget and debt management system, including establishing an emergency reserve fund system for debt repayment. Henan proposed to promote state - owned capital investment promotion and transform urban investment companies into industrial investment companies [9][10] (3) Early Redemption of Urban Investment Bonds - 23 urban investment enterprises redeemed bond principal and interest in advance this week, involving 24 bonds with a total scale of 45.37 billion yuan, an increase of 23.22 billion yuan compared with the previous value. Most of the enterprises are from the western region, and the main credit rating is AA [13] (4) Cancellation of Urban Investment Bond Issuance - Two urban investment bonds, "25 WanTouJi MTN002" and "25 HuiLinInvestment MTN001A", were cancelled this week, with a planned issuance scale of 950 million yuan. As of June 15, 58 urban investment bonds have been postponed or cancelled this year, with a total scale of 3.5348 billion yuan [14] 2. Issuance of Local Government Bonds and Urban Investment Enterprise Bonds (1) Local Government Bonds - This week, the issuance scale and net financing of local government bonds decreased, the issuance interest rate decreased, and the spread widened. As of June 15, the issuance progress of new special bonds this year is less than 40%, and the local debt replacement progress has reached 84%. A total of 22 local bonds were issued this week, with a scale of 107.786 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.65%. The net financing decreased by 9.3513 billion yuan to - 4.3012 billion yuan. The weighted average issuance interest rate decreased by 1.83BP to 1.82%, and the weighted average spread widened by 2.87BP to 13.55BP [15][16] (2) Urban Investment Bonds - This week, the issuance scale and net financing of urban investment bonds increased, and the net financing turned positive. The issuance interest rate decreased, and the spread narrowed. A total of 176 urban investment bonds were issued, with a scale of 126.607 billion yuan, an increase of 63.89%. The net financing increased by 1.1982 billion yuan to 1.1948 billion yuan. The overall issuance interest rate was 2.23%, a decrease of 4.19BP, and the issuance spread was 72.94BP, a decrease of 1.67BP. Seven overseas urban investment bonds were issued, with a total scale of 2.764 billion yuan [19] 3. Trading of Local Government Bonds and Urban Investment Enterprise Bonds - The central bank conducted 858.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchases this week, with 930.9 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 72.7 billion yuan. Short - term capital interest rates mostly declined. On June 6, 2025, Shanghai Brilliance upgraded the credit rating of Shanghai Pudong Land Holding (Group) Co., Ltd. from AA+ to AAA. No urban investment credit risk events occurred this week. The trading volume of local government bonds increased by 65.14% to 623.982 billion yuan, and the yield to maturity generally declined by an average of 3BP. The trading volume of urban investment bonds increased by 45.45% to 327.002 billion yuan, and the yield to maturity generally declined by an average of 3.95BP. The spreads of 1 - year, 3 - year, and 5 - year AA+ urban investment bonds narrowed. Under the broad - based criteria, 13 urban investment entities had 15 abnormal bond transactions [22][24][25] 4. Important Announcements of Urban Investment Enterprises - 43 urban investment enterprises issued announcements regarding changes in senior management, legal representatives, directors, supervisors, controlling shareholders, actual controllers, equity/asset transfers, and cumulative new borrowings this week [28]