Investment Rating - The report maintains a stable outlook for the Chinese toll road industry, indicating that the overall credit quality of the industry is not expected to undergo significant changes in the next 12 to 18 months [7][42]. Core Insights - The toll road industry has experienced growth in passenger and freight transport since 2024, although the growth rate has slowed. The demand for road transport is expected to maintain a low growth trend due to improved infrastructure and government strategies aimed at expanding domestic demand and stabilizing growth [6][41]. - The completion of the national expressway network has led to a noticeable slowdown in investment growth within the industry. The pressure from expiring road assets and maintenance issues is becoming more pronounced, prompting a trend towards extending toll collection periods beyond the previous limits [6][25]. - Recent policy developments are expected to accelerate reforms in toll collection systems and maintenance frameworks, with the revised "Toll Road Management Regulations" anticipated to be issued soon [25][29]. Summary by Sections Analysis Approach - The report analyzes the overall fundamentals of the toll road industry by examining demand changes, investment pressures, and industry policies, while also assessing the profitability, leverage, and debt repayment capabilities of toll road operating companies [9]. Industry Fundamentals - The toll road industry has transitioned from a rapid recovery phase to a period of steady development. The growth in passenger and freight transport is expected to continue, albeit at a slower pace, with road transport remaining a major component of the national transportation system [10][12]. - In the first ten months of 2024, passenger transport reached 9.809 billion trips, a year-on-year increase of 8.0%, while freight transport totaled 34.365 billion tons, growing by 3.2% [10][11]. Financial Performance - The overall profitability and debt repayment capabilities of sample companies have slightly declined but remain at a good level. The financial leverage is relatively stable, with a downward trend in the overall capital structure [30][39]. - In 2023, the sample companies experienced a significant recovery in operating performance, with total revenue growth of 7.29% and net profit growth of 20.37%. However, in 2024, net profit saw a slight decline of 1.53% due to various factors, including increased operational costs and reduced freight traffic [31][32]. Conclusion - The report concludes that while the toll road industry faces challenges such as expiring toll rights and rising maintenance costs, the overall credit quality is expected to remain stable. The industry is adapting to new policies and market conditions, which may provide opportunities for sustainable development [41][42].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a stable outlook for the Chinese port industry, indicating that the credit quality of the industry is expected to remain unchanged over the next 12 to 18 months [5][39]. Core Insights - The container throughput has significantly increased due to "export rush" driven by inventory replenishment and tariff disturbances in Europe and the United States, with a year-on-year growth of 7.3% to 305 million TEUs in the first 11 months of 2024 [9][39]. - Domestic transportation demand and bulk commodity import demand have shown steady growth, although the growth rate has declined compared to the previous year, leading to a slowdown in the overall growth rate of port cargo throughput [5][39]. - The port industry is expected to achieve low-speed growth in cargo and container throughput, with further deceleration anticipated [15][39]. Summary by Sections Analysis Approach - The report reviews the operational status of the port industry since 2024 and analyzes the overall fundamentals through demand and investment aspects, selecting 14 representative companies for financial performance analysis [8]. Industry Fundamentals - Container throughput has increased significantly, with coastal ports seeing a 7.6% year-on-year growth to 268 million TEUs [9]. - Total cargo throughput reached 16.041 billion tons, with foreign trade cargo throughput growing by 7.28% to 4.956 billion tons [9]. Financial Performance - The profitability of port enterprises has improved steadily, with average operating revenue growth of 3.25% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2024 [31]. - The financial leverage has slightly increased, but the debt repayment capacity remains strong, with a median operating cash flow to total debt ratio of 0.07, up from 0.05 in 2023 [36][38]. Conclusion - The report concludes that despite uncertainties in foreign trade demand due to global protectionism and geopolitical conflicts, domestic policies are expected to support internal demand, leading to a stable outlook for the port industry [39].

Key Points - The report highlights that over 50% of the 29 subway companies in China primarily rely on subway operation revenue, with many actively engaging in diversified businesses such as real estate development along subway lines to supplement their revenue [4][5][7] - Most subway companies are currently operating at a loss, heavily dependent on government subsidies for their total profits, indicating a significant imbalance between operational costs and revenue [5][10] - The financial leverage of subway companies is notably high, as they primarily finance their large-scale projects through debt, leading to increasing overall leverage levels as construction continues [4][16] - The report notes that the cash flow from operating activities and EBITDA are insufficient to cover debt interest, resulting in a disparity in debt repayment capabilities among subway companies based on regional support and diversification of operations [4][10] - The report emphasizes the need for subway companies to accelerate their transformation and diversify their operations to reduce reliance on government subsidies, especially in the context of local fiscal pressures [10][13] Financial Performance Analysis - The financial performance of the 29 subway companies shows that many are experiencing operational losses, with a significant reliance on government subsidies for maintaining operations [4][10] - The report provides detailed financial data, indicating that as of 2023, the total assets and equity of these companies continue to grow, but the growth rate is declining due to stricter debt management policies [16][18] - The report includes a table summarizing the revenue composition of various subway companies, showing that some companies have diversified their income sources significantly, with non-subway operation revenue exceeding 50% in several cases [8][14] Industry Overview - The urban rail transit sector is recognized for its advantages in speed, capacity, and environmental benefits, contributing to alleviating urban traffic congestion and enhancing city functions [6] - As of the end of 2023, China has 59 cities with operational urban rail transit lines totaling 338 lines and 11,224.54 kilometers, with 41 cities having subway lines [6] - The report notes a decline in the number of new subway projects and investment scale due to increased regulatory scrutiny and a focus on managing local government debt risks [6][10]

Investment Rating - The report provides a stable outlook for the local AMC industry, reflecting a steady credit level for the sector over the next 12 to 18 months [4][6]. Core Insights - The local AMC industry is increasingly important in addressing risks in key areas such as small financial institutions, real estate, and local government debt, with significant business opportunities available [6][8]. - Regulatory policies have been guiding AMCs to participate in risk resolution, enhancing their operational space and importance [6][9]. - The financing environment for local AMCs has improved, with a notable increase in net financing due to declining interest rates and government support [14][15]. - The industry faces challenges such as rising non-performing assets and increased competition, necessitating innovative asset disposal methods to enhance recovery efficiency [30][31]. Summary by Sections Industry Policy - Regulatory policies since 2024 have focused on guiding AMCs to engage in risk resolution for small financial institutions, real estate, and local government debt, highlighting the growing importance of local AMCs [8][9]. - The introduction of the "Management Measures for the Bad Asset Business of Financial Asset Management Companies" has established basic norms for AMC operations, paving the way for future regulatory guidelines [8][11]. Industry Financing - The bond market has become a crucial financing channel for local AMCs, with net financing significantly increasing due to favorable market conditions and declining interest rates [14][15]. - By the end of 2024, the total bond balance for 30 licensed local AMCs reached 147.84 billion, with a notable increase in the issuance of medium-term notes and corporate bonds [16][22]. - The average comprehensive financing cost for existing bonds decreased to around 3%, with a significant portion of local AMCs benefiting from lower financing costs [18][19]. Industry Operations - The local AMC sector is experiencing a rise in non-performing assets, particularly in small financial institutions and real estate, which presents both opportunities and challenges for asset acquisition and management [30][31]. - The report indicates that the quality of asset packages available for purchase is declining, leading to a more cautious approach from local AMCs in acquiring non-performing assets [35][36]. - Local AMCs are expected to leverage their regional advantages to enhance their operational efficiency and effectiveness in managing local economic risks [30][34].

www.ccxi.com.cn 特别评论 2025 年 1 月 目录 要点 1 主要关注因素 2 结论 8 联络人 作者 企业评级部 刘逸伦 010-66428877-623 ylliu@ccxi.com.cn 毛铭 010-66428877-325 mmao@ccxi.com.cn 其他联络人 刘 洋 010-66428877 yliu01@ccxi.com.cn 中诚信国际 医药流通行业 1 医药流通行业特别评论 医药流通企业在医药产业链中承担连接上下游的桥梁职能，是医药 市场平稳运行的关键环节，近年来在人民健康意识增强、人口老龄 化加剧等多重因素推动下，医药流通市场规模持续扩张，但在全面 深化医疗体制改革背景下，医药行业业绩压力逐步从制造企业向流 通企业传导，加之行业竞争日趋激烈，医药流通行业直报企业平均 毛利率整体下行，在市场扩容趋势下陷入"增收不增利"窘境，利 润空间持续压缩。 在高杠杆与低毛利经营模式的压力下，医药流通企业对应收账款的 敏感度很高，国采政策的逐步深入对医药流通企业应收账款账期增 长起到一定延缓作用，，但在地方财政及医保支付承压背景下，行 业账期延长趋势仍难以逆转，尽管头部企业保持良 ...

202 20 4 24 年 年第 12 月 67 31 期 作者: 中诚信国际 研究院 执行院长 袁海霞 hxyuan@ccxi.com.cn 研究员 张 堃 kzhang02@ccxi.com.cn 研 究 员 汪苑晖 yhwang@ccxi.com.cn 研 究 员 张文宇 wyzhang.Ivy@ccxi.com.cn 增量政策效果有所显现，PMI 重回景气区间， 2024 年 10 月 景气度走低指向经济仍承压，期待宏观政 策"更加给力"，2024 年 7 月 PMI 供需两端景气度双双回落，需关注制造 业企业被动补库存，2024 年 6 月 PMI 供需两端均升至扩张区间，但与高频数 据表现存在一定背离，2024 年 3 月 如需订阅研究报告，敬请联系 中诚信国际品牌与投资人服务部 赵 耿 010-66428731 gzhao@ccxi.com.cn www.ccxi.com.cn 宏观经济 日 PMI 数据点评 PMI 延续扩张，产需修复动能有待加强 ——12 月 PMI 数据点评 12 月新出口订单指数为 48.3%，较上月回升 0.2 个百分点，短期 看外需仍具韧性，或许是出于对海外加征关税的 ...

www.ccxi.com.cn 企业评级部 程方誉 010-66428877-606 fycheng@ccxi.com.cn 其他联络人 刘 洋 010-66428877 yliu01@ccxi.com.cn 中诚信国际 生猪养殖行业 特别评论 2025 年 1 月 目录 要点 1 主要关注因素 2 结论 9 联络人 作者 1 2025 年生猪养殖行业特别评论 2024 年前三季度，生猪供给缩量持续兑现令我国生猪价格整体呈现 大幅上涨态势，受散户和二育群体积极出栏令行业产能有所恢复影 响，9 月后生猪价格开始回落，但年末节日以及"冬腊"消费对生猪 需求仍有一定温和提振效果，考虑到今年尾部产能恢复缓慢，叠加 冬春季疫病高发、仔猪供应断档等因素，预计短期内生猪供给或出 现阶段性减少，猪价或呈缓慢震荡、筑底回升态势，2025 年生猪供 给整体增幅有限，猪价或在低盈利水平维持窄幅震荡态势。 在规模化主导的市场格局下，"猪周期"不再"波澜壮阔"，生猪 养殖行业的竞争将趋向"技术驱动的降本增效"，拥有令成本进一 步下降的突破性技术和管理能力的企业将具备更高的竞争力和抗风 险能力。 2024 年一季度，生猪价格"低位磨底" ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates that the investment rating for the non-standard debt risk of platform companies in Henan Province is under scrutiny due to increasing overdue incidents and shifting risk dynamics [1][16][33]. Core Insights - The non-standard debt overdue incidents in Henan Province rank among the highest in the country, with significant exposure occurring early, particularly in Pingdingshan and later spreading to major cities like Zhengzhou and Luoyang [1][33]. - The report highlights a notable shift in non-standard debt risk from county-level platforms to city-level platforms, indicating a broader systemic issue within the region's financial management [1][33]. - Recent policies, such as the "35 Document" and "134 Document," aim to support the restructuring and replacement of non-standard debt, providing a framework for addressing the growing financial pressures faced by platform companies [11][32]. Summary by Sections Non-Standard Debt Risk Characteristics - Non-standard financing is a significant channel for platform companies in Henan, with a total non-standard debt scale ranking seventh nationally as of the end of 2023 [16][28]. - Despite the high absolute value of non-standard financing, its proportion of total debt remains relatively low, ranking 20th among provinces [16][28]. Recent Trends in Non-Standard Debt - Since the implementation of the "One Package Debt Relief" policy, the frequency of non-standard debt incidents has increased, with 29 overdue events recorded over the past five years, placing Henan fifth in the national ranking [16][17]. - The report notes that the number of overdue incidents in 2024 is expected to double compared to 2023, with significant occurrences in Luoyang and Zhengzhou [17][33]. Economic and Financial Context - Zhengzhou and Luoyang are identified as key cities where non-standard debt risks are prevalent, with Zhengzhou benefiting from stronger economic fundamentals and financial resource coordination [19][33]. - Luoyang's weaker county-level platforms face heightened liquidity pressures due to tighter financing channels and insufficient debt management capabilities [19][27]. Policy and Future Outlook - The report emphasizes the need for effective debt management and regulatory oversight to mitigate the risks associated with non-standard debt, particularly in light of the ongoing economic challenges [32][33]. - Future strategies for addressing non-standard debt issues include leveraging central government policies for debt restructuring and enhancing the operational capabilities of platform companies [32][33].

中诚信国际特别评论 图4：2014年以来江苏省城投企业重组整合按形式分布（次） 图5：2014年以来江苏省城投企业重组整合形式按年度分布（次） 数据来源：企业预警通，中诚信国际整理 数据来源：企业预警通，中诚信国际整理 省内低级别、低层级城投企业的重组整合力度更大。从重组整合城投企业的主体信用级别分布来看， 较低级别的企业，其重组整合更为频繁，且为积极争取更多资源，常涉及股东或实控人变更；主体信用级 别为 AAA 的城投企业，其重组整合多涉及下属企业股权、资产的划转，实控人变更主要为不同政府部门之 中诚信国际特别评论 6 中国城投行业特别评论 7 中国城投行业特别评论 当前城投企业正在加速推进重组整合，但在此过程中，需要持续厘清并深入解决政企的权责界限、 中诚信国际特别评论 中诚信国际特别评论 本文件中包含的信息由中诚信国际从其认为可靠、准确的渠道获得。因为可能存在信息时效性及其他因素影响，上述信息以提 供时状态为准。中诚信国际对于该等信息的准确性、及时性、完整性、针对任何商业目的的可行性及合适性不作任何明示或暗示的 陈述或担保。在任何情况下，a)中诚信国际不对任何人或任何实体就中诚信国际或其董事、高级管理人 ...

| --- | --- | |--------------|-------| | | | | 要点 1 | | | 主要关注因素 | 2 | | 结论 12 | | 皖南区县平台统筹化债与发展的举措及影响分析 本文认为，"一揽子化债"政策使得皖南区县平台的债务压力 将较以往有所减轻，但经营性债务的接续仍然存在较大压力； 皖南区县平台应把握其独特的产业及区位优势，利用好承接江 浙沪产业转移的政策支持，将业务布局与区域优势产业及重点 发展产业匹配，进而提升自身的长期造血能力。 皖南区域产业基础深厚，且凭借其区位优势，在承接江浙沪产业转移方面持续获得政策利好；经济 及财政实力整体分化较明显，财政增速较快，强区县主要集中于芜湖市、马鞍山市、宣城市等；皖 南区县整体债务压力在省内相对较低，且近年来债务增速不高；"一揽子化债"以来城投债发行规 模锐减、新增难度较大、净融资规模由正转负，但发行成本明显下行。 整体来看，皖南城市的产业发展情况有所分化，但整体来看产业基础较深厚，且凭借区位优势，近年 来获得承接江浙沪产业转移相关的多重利好政策，为产业发展注入新动能。 资料来源：《安徽省国土空间规划（2021—2035 年）》， ...