2025 年 3 月 热点点评 作者： 中诚信国际 研究院 袁海霞 hxyuan@ccxi.com.cn 汪苑晖 yhwang@ccxi.com.cn 王 晨 chwang01@ccxi.com.cn 三问 2025 年特别国债——全国两会精神学 习系列之三 2025 年政府工作报告的八大关注点——全 国两会精神学习系列之一，2025 年 3 月 "两会"后积极财政的四大关注——全国 两会精神学习系列之二，2025 年 3 月 增量财政政策的七大关注——10.12 财 政部新闻发布会点评，2024 年 10 月 如需订阅研究报告，敬请联系 中诚信国际品牌与投资人服务部 赵 耿 010-66428731 gzhao@ccxi.com.cn www.ccxi.com.cn 简评 MLF 改革： 转向多重价位招标，淡化政策利率属性 简评 MLF 改革： 转向多重价位招标，淡化政策利率属性 二、MLF 转为多重价格招标有利于缓解银行净息差压力，降低综合融资成本 商业银行作为金融体系的重要组成部分，在稳增长、防风险等中需发挥重要作用：一方 面通过债务置换展期等助力地方债务风险化解，缓解融资平台短期流动性压力；另一方面， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Credit bond issuance in March was sluggish, with the scale of cancelled or postponed issuance exceeding 30 billion yuan. After a period of adjustment, credit bond financing is still expected to recover [4][11][12]. - On March 21st, China Securities Depository and Clearing Corporation launched three supportive measures to optimize the market environment and promote the high - quality development of the credit bond market [4][13]. - The Fed maintained the benchmark interest rate and slowed down the pace of balance - sheet reduction. Its policy adjustment affects the US Treasury yield and Sino - US spread, and may have an impact on China's monetary policy [5][17][19]. Summary by Directory Market Hotspots - **Credit bond issuance slump**: The direct cause is the significant increase in interest - rate bond yields, which raises the issuance cost of credit bonds, and the tight capital situation. It also reflects market differences in economic fundamentals and policy expectations. After a period of adjustment, credit bond financing is expected to recover [4][11][12]. - **Exchange market's "three - pronged approach"**: On March 21st, China Securities Depository and Clearing Corporation launched three measures, including allowing credit bond ETFs to conduct margin trading, expanding the scope of repurchase of credit - protected bonds, and temporarily exempting some bond registration and settlement fees, to promote the high - quality development of the credit bond market [4][13][14]. - **Fed's policy adjustment**: The Fed maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25% - 4.5% and slowed down the pace of balance - sheet reduction. Its policy "dilemma" increases the uncertainty of the economic outlook, and may affect China's monetary policy and the Sino - US spread [5][17][19]. Macroeconomic Data - From January to February, China's foreign trade data showed a decline in import and export growth rates, with exports slowing down and imports contracting. The export was 539.941 billion US dollars, with a year - on - year growth rate of 2.3%, a decrease of 8.4 percentage points from the previous value. The import was 369.426 billion US dollars, with a year - on - year growth rate of - 8.4%, a decrease of 9.4 percentage points from the previous value [6]. Money Market - Last week, the central bank net - injected 37.91 billion yuan through open - market operations. The pledged repurchase rates of various tenors showed mixed trends, with the 14 - day and 21 - day rates rising by 23bp and 2bp respectively, and the other tenors falling by 4 - 10bp [7][23][24]. Primary Market of Credit Bonds - Last week, the issuance of credit bonds continued to heat up, with the issuance scale reaching 332.225 billion yuan, an increase of 62.298 billion yuan from the previous period. The average issuance cost of most credit bonds decreased [28]. Secondary Market of Credit Bonds - Last week, the secondary - market trading volume of bonds was 953.8124 billion yuan, showing a slight decline. The yields of interest - rate bonds mostly increased, and the yields of credit bonds showed a divergence between short - and long - term tenors. Most credit spreads narrowed, and most rating spreads widened [42].

山东省具有重要的战略地位，经济规模位居全国前列，近年来山东省围 绕新旧动能转换和绿色低碳高质量发展，逐步确立了"十强"产业集群， 引导企业及产业向高端化、智能化、绿色化、集群化转型升级、加快构 建现代化产业体系；同时山东省政府债务保持了较快的增长，但因其财 政实力较强，一般公共预算收入对政府债务的覆盖程度处于全国中上游 水平，整体债务压力尚可。 近年来，山东省社融增量表现有所波动，但 2024 年社融增量规模仍处于全 国前列，省内融资主要以表内融资、直接融资和政府债券为主。化债背景 下，随着政府债券发行扩容，2024 年表内融资和直接融资占比下降，整体 结构有所调整。 www.ccxi.com.cn 行业分析 2025 年 3 月 中诚信国际 保险资产管理行业研究 化债以来，山东省融资情况及非标债务表现 分析 摘要 另一方面，随着山东省财政的统一部署安排，山东省城投平台非标存量规 模持续收缩，但非标债务类型占比有所分化，融资租赁占比持续上升，债 权计划及信托融资大幅下降。 联络人 作者 创新产品评级部 朱文宇 010-66428877 wyzhu@ccxi.com.cn 王 洋 010-66428877 yw ...

Economic Insights - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates twice this year, with the core inflation forecast raised from 2.5% to 2.8%[11] - South Africa's government debt is projected to exceed 76% of GDP in the medium term, necessitating structural reforms to stimulate economic growth[12] - Saudi Arabia's economy is expected to grow by 1.3% in 2024, supported by a 9% increase in money supply[13] Political Developments - Turkey's political landscape is destabilized following the arrest of opposition leader İmamoğlu, leading to significant market turmoil with the lira dropping 14.5% against the dollar[3][4] - Germany's president signed a fiscal reform allowing for over €440 billion in new debt for defense and infrastructure, marking a significant shift in fiscal policy[7][10] Market Reactions - Turkey's 10-year bond yields surged by nearly 139 basis points to 29.58% amid political unrest and market volatility[4] - Brazil's central bank raised its benchmark interest rate to 14.25% to combat rising inflation and economic uncertainty[19] Regional Economic Trends - Egypt's economy is recovering, with remittances increasing by over 51% to $29.6 billion, aided by a floating exchange rate policy[16] - Argentina's GDP is projected to shrink by 1.7% in 2024, driven by declines in private and public consumption[20] Investment and Funding - Pakistan approved 28 major investment projects from Gulf countries, potentially exceeding $28 billion in total investment[24] - France is launching a €450 million defense fund amid rising security concerns, reflecting increased military spending priorities[25]

特别评论 2025 年 3 月 目录 | 要点 | 1 | | --- | --- | | 主要债务特征 | 2 | | 高额债务成因 | 3 | | 化债举措及成效 | 8 | | 发债城投基本面观察 | 11 | | 总结 | 16 | 联络人 作者 政府公共评级部 唐 晨 chtang@ccxi.com.cn www.ccxi.com.cn 要点 1 行业研究 ◼ 苏南区域在推动经济增长及城市化进程的同时不断积累债务，各地债务压力 分化明显，有息债务较多集中于城投企业，且城投债务行政层级较苏北地区 更为下沉。 ◼ 改革开放后苏南地区在政策引导下逐渐形成以投资推动经济增长的"苏南模 式"，区域经济总量稳居江苏省前列，经济的高速发展带来人口持续增长以 及产业外延式发展需求增加，资金需求加剧促使地方政府通过举债的方式维 持高额固定资产投资；同时，税制改革下财政自给能力的弱化进一步导致苏 南政府的融资需求推升和债务规模扩张，城投托市拿地行为亦加剧了苏南地 区的城投债务压力。 ◼ 苏南五市政府围绕江苏省确立的"三债统管"理念，主要从降本控量、压降 融资性平台和加强风险监测三方面开展债务监管工作并取得切实进展，债务 ...

市场跟踪 房地产行业 政府工作报告首提"稳住楼市" ，坚持在发展中 逐步化解风险 ——2025 年 3 月房地产市场跟踪 政府工作报告延续稳住楼市的基调，并坚持在发展中逐步化解风 险，顺应市场需求，构建房地产行业发展新模式，从需求端加力 实施城中村和危旧房改造，供给端控制增量盘活存量，给予城市 政府更大自主权。 2025 年 3 月 5 日，国务院总理李强在第十四届全国人大 三次会议上作政府工作报告，对于房地产领域，政府工作报 告延续 2024 年 9 月政治局会议以来的政策基调，强调"稳住 楼市"、"持续用力推动房地产市场止跌回稳"，依然将 "防风险"列为房地产行业首要任务。在中央对房地产行业 定调明确的前提下，预计 2025 年整体行业政策将维持宽松， 各项政策的细化、完善、落实情况将是最主要关注点。此外， 政府工作报告还提出"坚持在发展中逐步化解风险"，在稳 字当头的基础上，更注重构建房地产行业发展新模式，以 "好房子"建设为切入点逐步改善房企经营模式粗放、产品 同质化等问题，提升产品力，适应市场需求，促进行业未来 可持续健康发展。 政府工作报告指出房地产行业仍将从供需两端发力：在 需求端提出"因城施策 ...

www.ccxi.com.cn 2025 年 3 月 保险资产管理业创新型产品1在公用事业类 收费收益权 ABS 的运用研究 摘要 联络人 作者 创新产品评级部 周文白 010-66428877 wbzhou@ccxi.com.cn 李天琦 010-66428877 tqli@ccxi.com.cn 联络人 创新产品评级总监 张凤华 010-66428877 fhzhang@ccxi.com.cn 中诚信国际 行业研究 保险资产管理行业研究 1 本报告所称保险资产管理业创新型产品，是指在保险资产管理业运行的除传统股票、债券、现金及其组合之外的金融类资产，主要 包括债权投资计划、资产支持计划、股权投资计划及保险私募基金等。 1. 近年来，在化债背景下，基投公司传统融资渠道收窄、亟需探索 创新融资方式。而公用事业收费收益权，凭借特许经营、以及现 金流稳定可预期等优势，或可成为基投公司发行 ABS 的核心资 产，打开低成本、长期限的创新融资渠道。 2. 与此同时，中保登 ABS 市场持续扩容，公用事业收费收益权 ABS 或可为保险资管公司提供业务机遇，一方面为优质的基投公司 引入保险资金，另一方面则为保险资管公司提 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the insurance asset management industry or public utility revenue rights ABS [3]. Core Insights - The insurance asset management industry is exploring innovative financing methods due to the tightening of traditional financing channels, with public utility revenue rights potentially serving as core assets for ABS issuance [6][40]. - The public utility sector is experiencing stable income levels and improving profitability, supported by government policies and a gradually improving pricing system [7][10]. - The market for public utility revenue rights ABS is currently small, with no issuances in the China Insurance Asset Registration and Depository (中保登) market, indicating a potential area for future exploration [6][34]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The public utility sector is characterized by high market demand driven by urbanization, stable income due to government pricing, and a gradual improvement in profitability [8][10]. - The sector includes heating, gas supply, water supply, and environmental protection, all requiring specific operating licenses [9][12][13]. Market Analysis of Public Utility Revenue Rights ABS - The issuance scale of public utility revenue rights ABS is low, with a cumulative issuance of 189.72 billion yuan in the interbank market as of the end of 2024 [16][20]. - The public utility revenue rights ABS market has seen a decline in issuance scale, currently representing only about 1% of the overall ABS market [24][34]. Credit Analysis Points and Methods - The structure of public utility revenue rights ABS typically involves a single SPV, with cash flow predictability being a key factor for stability [35][36]. - Key considerations for credit analysis include the operational capacity of the cash flow generating entities, the clarity of ownership rights, and the regulatory compliance of the underlying assets [39][41]. Conclusion - Given the tightening of financing for investment companies and the predictable cash flows from public utility assets, there is a favorable environment for the issuance of revenue rights ABS, aligning with national policies to revitalize existing assets [40].

www.ccxi.com.cn 中诚信国际 特别评论 个人汽车贷款证券化 汽车金融行业竞争加剧，个人汽车贷款 ABS产 品发行量进一步下滑，但绿色车贷 ABS 产品 占比提升；需要关注资产特征变化及设置循环 购买结构等对产品表现的影响 ——个人汽车贷款证券化 2024 年度运营报告及 2025 年度展望 要点： 联络人 作者 结构融资一部 邵博文 010-66428877-358 bwshao@ccxi.com.cn 李 睿 010-66428877-475 rli@ccxi.com.cn 其他联络人 结构融资一部 评级总监 王 立 010-66428877-523 lwang03@ccxi.com.cn 2025 年 3 月 目录 要点 1 正文 2 结论 12 附表 13 行业方面，受益于汽车以旧换新政策、促消费举措及新能源汽车的 快速发展等，叠加出口保持较快增长，2024 年汽车产销量整体上 升，行业景气度稳步提升，其中新能源汽车销量进一步增长；汽车 金融行业整体稳健发展，商业银行加速布局汽车消费贷款，汽车金 融公司面临一定的挑战。 发行方面，2024 年，银行间市场共发行车贷 ABS 产品 32 单， ...

www.ccxi.com.cn 中诚信国际 特别评论 个人汽车贷款证券化 汽车金融行业竞争加剧，个人汽车贷款 ABS产 品发行量进一步下滑，但绿色车贷 ABS 产品 占比提升；需要关注资产特征变化及设置循环 购买结构等对产品表现的影响 ——个人汽车贷款证券化 2024 年度运营报告及 2025 年度展望 行业方面，受益于汽车以旧换新政策、促消费举措及新能源汽车的 快速发展等，叠加出口保持较快增长，2024 年汽车产销量整体上 升，行业景气度稳步提升，其中新能源汽车销量进一步增长；汽车 金融行业整体稳健发展，商业银行加速布局汽车消费贷款，汽车金 融公司面临一定的挑战。 发行方面，2024 年，银行间市场共发行车贷 ABS 产品 32 单，发 行规模 1,296.68 亿元，均较上年有所下降，但发行规模在信贷资 产证券化中仍占据半壁江山；其中，中外合资汽车金融公司发行规 模下降幅度较大；绿色车贷 ABS 产品发行整体稳健。 发行利率方面，2024 年发行的车贷 ABS 产品 AAAsf级证券发行利 率区间为 1.60%~2.55%，平均为 1.98%，发行利率较低，但利差略 有上升。 二级市场方面，2024 年， ...