1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of soybean meal and palm oil futures are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term and show a sideways trend in the medium - term. For soybean meal, factors such as Sino - US trade relations, high near - month inventory and far - month gap expectations in the domestic market are influencing its price. For palm oil, international oil price pressure, policy uncertainties, and demand substitution are the main factors [5][7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Soybean Meal (M) - **Day - to - day View**: Fluctuate weakly - **Medium - term View**: Sideways - **Reference View**: Fluctuate weakly - **Core Logic**: Sino - US trade relations continue to disrupt the market. The combination of tariff increases and negotiation uncertainties, along with the contradiction of high near - month inventory and far - month gap expectations in the domestic market, leads to a divergence in soybean futures prices and a weakening of capital support. As a result, soybean meal futures prices fluctuate weakly in the short - term [5]. 3.2 Palm Oil (P) - **Day - to - day View**: Fluctuate weakly - **Medium - term View**: Sideways - **Reference View**: Fluctuate weakly - **Core Logic**: The spill - over effect of the pressure on international oil prices on the oil market persists. Additionally, policy uncertainties in various countries increase, demand substitution in the oil market emerges, and market instability rises. Affected by macro - sentiment, market funds are cautious, and bulls leave the market. Before market sentiment recovers, palm oil futures prices will fluctuate weakly [7]. 3.3 Other Factors Affecting Related Varieties - **Soybean Meal 2601**: Influenced by Sino - US relations, import arrival rhythm, oil mill start - up rhythm, and inventory pressure [6]. - **Soybean Oil 2601**: Affected by Sino - US relations, US bio - fuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [6]. - **Palm 2601**: Impacted by its bio - diesel attribute, Malaysian palm oil production and exports, Indonesian exports, tariff policies of major producing countries, domestic arrival and inventory, and substitution demand [6].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The methanol 2601 contract is expected to show a weak and volatile trend in the short - term, medium - term, and intraday, with bearish factors dominating [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Methanol Futures Price and Trend - The domestic methanol futures 2601 contract slightly rose 0.17% to 2300 yuan/ton on Thursday night. It is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend on Friday [5] Core Logic of the Trend - After the market digested the event of sanctions on Iranian methanol vessels, the bullish driving force weakened [5] - The domestic methanol operating rate and weekly output remain at a relatively high level, and the external import pressure continues to increase, with the annual import peak having arrived, resulting in high methanol inventories at ports in East and South China before the festival [5] - Although downstream demand is gradually improving, the olefin futures profit is not good, and the situation of weak demand still needs to be improved [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run weakly, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday views all being "oscillating weakly" [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price Performance**: On Thursday night, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract maintained an oscillating and stable trend, with the futures price slightly rising 0.17% to 14,870 yuan/ton, but the medium - term downward trend is obvious, being constrained by the upper 5 - day moving average [5]. - **Core Logic**: Although the macro - negative sentiment has weakened due to the US President Trump's signal of easing, the macro and industrial factors in the rubber market still remain weak, so it is expected to maintain an oscillating and weak trend on Friday [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price Performance**: On Thursday night, the domestic synthetic rubber futures 2512 contract showed an oscillating and stable trend, with the futures price rebounding 0.91% to 11,030 yuan/ton, but there is a lack of momentum to continue strengthening [7]. - **Core Logic**: Similar to Shanghai rubber, although the macro - negative sentiment has weakened, the macro and industrial factors in the rubber market are still weak, so it is expected to maintain an oscillating and weak trend on Friday [7].

Report Overview - Report Name: Baocheng Futures Bean and Oil Morning Report (October 17, 2025) - Publisher: Baocheng Futures - Date: October 17, 2025 Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The prices of soybean meal and palm oil futures are expected to be weak with oscillations in the short - term and show an oscillating trend in the medium - term. This is due to multiple factors such as Sino - US trade relations, international oil prices, policy uncertainties, and inventory situations [5][7]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Intraday View**: Oscillating and weakening [5]. - **Medium - term View**: Oscillating [5]. - **Reference View**: Oscillating and weakening [5]. - **Core Logic**: Sino - US trade relations, high near - term domestic inventory, far - term supply gap expectations, and reduced capital support lead to the short - term weakening with oscillations of soybean meal futures prices [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **Intraday View**: Oscillating and weakening [7]. - **Medium - term View**: Oscillating [7]. - **Reference View**: Oscillating and weakening [7]. - **Core Logic**: The continuous impact of international oil price pressure on the oil market, increased policy uncertainties in various countries, demand substitution in the oil market, and cautious market funds result in the short - term weakening with oscillations of palm oil futures prices [7]. Other Related Contracts - **Soybean Meal 2601**: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all oscillating and weakening. Influencing factors include Sino - US relations, import arrival rhythm, oil mill operation rhythm, and inventory pressure [6]. - **Soybean Oil 2601**: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all oscillating and weakening. Influencing factors include Sino - US relations, US biofuel policies, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [6]. - **Palm 2601**: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all oscillating and weakening. Influencing factors include biodiesel attributes, Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, main - producing country tariff policies, domestic arrival and inventory, and substitution demand [6].

期货研究报告 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 观点参考 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 10 月 17 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 震荡思路 | 政策面扰动不断，焦煤期货震荡 | | | | | | | | 运行 | | 焦炭 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡思路 | 多空交织，焦炭区间震荡 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：上涨 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡思路 核心 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall view of Treasury bond futures is oscillatory, with a short - term outlook of maintaining bottom - end oscillatory consolidation [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Index Sector - TL2512 is expected to be oscillatory in the short - term, medium - term, and overall, with an intraday view of being weakly oscillatory. The core logic is that there are still long - term expectations of interest rate cuts, but the possibility of a comprehensive short - term interest rate cut is low [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is weakly oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the overall reference view is oscillatory. The driving force of Treasury bond futures is currently limited, with limited upside and downside space. The latest September financial data shows weak credit demand in the household sector and insufficient effective domestic demand, leading to expectations of a loose monetary policy in the long - term, which supports Treasury bond futures. However, there is a lack of short - term necessity for a comprehensive interest rate cut, and the market's implied interest rate cut expectation is weak, resulting in insufficient short - term upward momentum. Recently, external uncertainties have increased market risk - aversion sentiment [5].

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The steel price is expected to continue the state of oscillating to find the bottom, and attention should be paid to the demand performance. The weak reality pattern remains unchanged, the supply of rebar is at a low level, the demand improvement is doubtful in sustainability, and the cost has support [1][2] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Variety View Reference - For rebar 2601, the short - term view is oscillating weakly, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is also oscillating weakly. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the weak reality pattern remains unchanged, and the steel price is oscillating to find the bottom [1] Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of rebar has changed. The output has been continuously decreasing, but the reduction momentum in the peak season is not strong and the overall decline is small. The inventory is relatively high, so the positive effect is limited. After the festival, the demand has improved as expected, but the high - frequency trading volume remains at a low level. Both supply and demand are at the low levels in the same period in recent years, and the peak - season performance is insufficient. The demand improvement is doubtful in sustainability, the inventory removal pressure is large, and the fundamentals have not been substantially improved. The relative positive factor is the cost support [2]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 10 月 17 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2512 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 震荡 偏强 | 长线看强 | 中长线上行趋势不变，中美摩擦 助推行情 | | 铜 | 2512 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 长线看强 | 矿端扰动再起，资金关注度快速 上升，中美贸易加剧波动 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：上涨 参考观点：长线看强 核心逻辑：昨夜金价持续强势，纽约金和伦敦金逼近 4400 美元/盎 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The iron ore market's fundamentals are weakening, with high - valued ore prices under pressure to run weakly, and attention should be paid to steel performance [2] - For the iron ore 2601 contract, the short - term and intraday trends are weakly oscillating, the medium - term trend is oscillating, and it is necessary to focus on the pressure at the MA5 line [1] Group 3: Summary According to Related Contents Variety View Reference - For the iron ore 2601 contract, the short - term view is weakly oscillating, the medium - term view is oscillating, the intraday view is weakly oscillating, and the reference is to focus on the pressure at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the demand expectation is weakening and the ore price is under pressure [1] Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore is continuously weakening. Steel mill production is weakening, and the terminal consumption of ore continues to decline. The supply pressure is increasing due to high port arrivals, high miner shipments, and the recovery of domestic ore supply. The demand downside pressure is fermenting, and the high - valued ore price is under pressure [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The subsequent market trend depends on the rhythm change of the game between profit - taking sentiment and policy - positive expectations. In the short term, stock index futures are expected to remain in a wide - range shock [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2512, the short - term view is shock, the medium - term view is upward, the intraday view is shock - biased upward, and the overall view is wide - range shock. The core logic is the conflict between short - term capital profit - taking willingness and the fermentation of medium - and long - term policy - positive expectations [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IF, IH, IC, and IM, the intraday view is shock - biased upward, the medium - term view is upward, and the reference view is wide - range shock. The core logic is that yesterday, each stock index showed shock and differentiation. The Shanghai Composite 50 and CSI 300 closed up in shock, while the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 closed down in shock. The total trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 194.87 billion yuan, a decrease of 14.17 billion yuan from the previous day. The newly released September financial data shows that the financing demand of the household sector is still weak, and the problem of insufficient effective domestic demand still exists. Coupled with the external tariff factor disturbance, the expectation of policy - side stabilizing the macro - fundamentals is strong, which forms the medium - and long - term support for the stock index. However, in the short term, there are still external uncertainty risks before November, and the stock valuation has increased significantly, so investors' willingness to take profits has risen, and there is short - term technical adjustment pressure [5].