Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - For gold, the short - term view is weak, with short - term decline and mid - term oscillation. The core logic is the easing of geopolitical conflicts and significant technical pressure on gold prices. Also, market pricing of the Iran - Israel cease - fire and changes in interest - rate cut expectations impact the price [1][3]. - For copper, the short - term view is strong, with both short - term and mid - term upward trends. The core logic is the improvement of market risk appetite at the macro level and the strong overseas copper premium and continuous inventory reduction at the industrial level [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Price Movement**: Yesterday, the gold price bottomed out and rebounded. The market has fully priced in the short - term Iran - Israel cease - fire, leading to a market correction [3]. - **Market Factors**: The recent increase in market interest - rate cut expectations and the continuous weakening of the US dollar index provide strong support for the gold price. The probability of three interest rate cuts within the year exceeds 50% according to FedWatch Tool data [3]. - **Technical Analysis**: The domestic gold price has fallen below the 60 - day moving average, and the willingness of previous short - sellers to close positions may increase. The overseas gold price is near the 60 - day moving average, with significant differences between bulls and bears. Focus on the 3300 - dollar long - short game of London gold and New York gold [3]. - **Ratio Trend**: The gold - silver ratio is expected to continue to weaken [3]. Copper - **Price Movement**: Yesterday, the copper price continued to oscillate below 80,000, with a slight decrease in the position volume and an increase in the willingness of long - sellers to close positions [5]. - **Macro Factors**: After the Iran - Israel cease - fire last week, market risk appetite improved, causing a general rise in non - ferrous metals. The market cooled down on Monday [5]. - **Industrial Factors**: The overseas LME copper premium has strengthened significantly recently, indicating a shortage of overseas electrolytic copper spot. The domestic Mysteel electrolytic copper social inventory is 123,500 tons, a reduction of 8,400 tons from last week, and the downstream replenishment willingness is strong [5]. - **Technical Analysis**: Pay attention to the long - short game at the 80,000 mark [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For coking coal, maintain a volatile outlook in the short - term, medium - term, and intraday, with intraday being slightly stronger. Supply disruptions persist, and the futures market is in a volatile adjustment phase. It is expected to maintain wide - range volatility, and attention should be paid to the July production in Shanxi coal mines [1][5] - For coke, maintain a volatile outlook in the short - term, medium - term, and intraday, with intraday being slightly weaker. With the potential increase in coking coal production after the end of the safety production month, cost - side supply disruptions re - emerge. It is expected to maintain wide - range volatility, and attention should be paid to the actual production of coking coal [1][8] Group 3: Summary by Variety Coking Coal - **Supply**: Some coal mines in the main production areas resumed production after safety inspections, causing concerns about supply. In the week of June 27, the daily average output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 73.8 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.6 million tons and 3.5 million tons lower than the same period last year. From June 16 - 21, the cumulative customs clearance of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port was 4,207 vehicles, a week - on - week increase of 374 vehicles, equivalent to a daily average of 701.2 vehicles [5] - **Demand**: The combined daily average output of coke from independent coking plants and steel mill coking plants was 111.97 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.15 million tons [5] Coke - **Supply**: The combined daily average output of coke from independent coking plants and steel mill coking plants was 111.97 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.15 million tons. After the fourth price cut on June 23, the profit per ton of coke for sample independent coking enterprises was - 46 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 23 yuan/ton, and the production expansion enthusiasm was average [8] - **Demand**: In the week of June 27, the daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills nationwide was 242.29 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.11 million tons, and the steel mill profitability rate was 59.31%, unchanged from the previous week [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In June, the manufacturing, non - manufacturing, and composite PMIs in China all rebounded, indicating that the overall economic prosperity level remained in the expansion zone [2][17]. - The central bank has been precisely regulating the mid - year capital market, injecting sufficient liquidity. However, the capital market in July may be affected by fiscal factors [16]. - The bond market in China is experiencing a complex situation. The current bond market has high congestion, but the fundamentals and capital still support it, though the room for growth is limited [31]. - The A - share market rose on Monday, while the Hong Kong stock market declined, and the Taiwan stock market suffered a "stock - exchange double - kill" [33][34]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data Quick View - In Q1 2025, China's GDP grew by 5.4% year - on - year, the same as the previous quarter [1]. - In June 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month; the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.5%, up 0.2 percentage points [1][2][17]. - In May 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of M0, M1, and M2 were 12.1%, 2.3%, and 7.9% respectively [1]. - In May 2025, the CPI decreased by 0.1% year - on - year, and the PPI decreased by 3.3% year - on - year [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - In June, the three major PMI indexes in China rebounded, and the overall economic prosperity level remained in the expansion zone [2][17]. - From January 1, 2025, to December 31, 2028, eligible overseas investors can get a 10% tax credit for direct investment in China [2][18]. - Trump criticized the Fed for not cutting interest rates and said the US should pay an interest rate of 1% [3][21]. - On June 30, the Baltic Dry Index fell 2.10% to 1489 points, falling for four consecutive days [4]. 3.2.2 Metals - The central bank issued regulations on anti - money laundering and anti - terrorist financing for precious metals and gemstone institutions [5]. - On June 27, zinc, copper, lead, nickel, and tin inventories decreased, while aluminum inventory increased [6]. - Citi expects the gold price to fall to $2500 - 2700 per ounce by the second half of 2026 [7]. - As of June 30, the SPDR Gold Trust's holdings decreased by 0.24% [7]. - Japan's aluminum price premium for July - September is set at $108 per ton, down 41% from the current quarter [8]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - In June 2025, the steel industry PMI was 45.9%, down 0.5 percentage points month - on - month, indicating continued pressure [9]. - Starting from July 1, 2025, anti - dumping duties will continue to be imposed on imported stainless steel billets and hot - rolled stainless steel sheets/coils from the EU, UK, South Korea, and Indonesia for 5 years [9]. - As the July 9 tariff negotiation deadline approaches, Indonesia will relax or cancel import restrictions on ten categories of goods and raw materials [9]. - Japan plans to extract rare earth minerals from seabed deposits starting from January next year [10]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - On July 1, domestic refined oil prices are expected to increase by about 230 yuan per ton [11]. - OPEC+ plans to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in August [11]. - The number of active oil drilling platforms in the US decreased by 6 to 432 last week [11]. - In May, Japan's crude oil imports increased by 13.9% year - on - year, while refined oil sales decreased [11]. - Morgan Stanley expects non - OPEC oil supply to grow strongly from 2025 to 2026, and the Brent crude oil price to fall to about $60 per barrel early next year [12]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - Datagro estimates Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production at 1.691 billion tons and corn production at 1.269 billion tons [13]. - Malaysia's palm oil exports in June were 1.382 million tons, up 4.7% year - on - year [14]. - US exporters sold 204,000 tons of bean cake and soybean meal [15]. - In 2025, the number of food products with price increases or planned price increases in Japan may exceed 20,000 [15]. 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On June 30, the central bank conducted 3315 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 1110 billion yuan [16]. - The central bank's precise regulation has ensured sufficient liquidity, but the capital market in July may be affected by fiscal factors [16]. 3.3.2 Key News - In June, China's manufacturing, non - manufacturing, and composite PMIs all rebounded [17]. - The Politburo emphasized the role of decision - making and coordinating institutions [18]. - Overseas investors can get a 10% tax credit for eligible direct investment in China from 2025 to 2028 [18]. - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange issued $3.08 billion in QDII investment quotas [18]. - In the third quarter, 11 issues of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds will be issued [18]. - As of May, overseas institutions' bond holdings in China were 4.4 trillion yuan [19]. - On June 30, the "North - bound Swap Connect" product contract term was extended to 30 years [19]. - In the first half of 2025, the total bond market stock in China reached 188.11 trillion yuan [19]. - The issuance scale of green financial bonds in the inter - bank market has increased significantly this year [19]. - As of June 30, 387 science and technology innovation bonds were issued, with a scale exceeding 580 billion yuan [20][21]. - Trump criticized the Fed for not cutting interest rates [21]. - The US Treasury Secretary said there is no reason to increase the issuance of long - term treasury bonds [21]. - Some bond - related events such as rating changes, redemption, and litigation occurred [22]. - Some overseas credit ratings were confirmed or maintained [22]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - China's bond market declined, with bond yields rising and futures prices falling [24]. - Some bonds in the exchange bond market rose or fell slightly [24]. - The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.35% [25]. - Most money market interest rates rose [26]. - US bond yields fell, and European bond yields mostly rose [27][28]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market Express - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose 34 points, and the central parity rate rose 41 points [29]. - The US dollar index fell 0.50%, and non - US currencies mostly rose [29]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - CITIC Construction Investment believes that the bond market may have short - term profit - taking pressure but may rise in the medium - term [30]. - Huatai Fixed Income turns neutral and cautious on convertible bonds and suggests choosing relatively cheap varieties [31]. - Huatai Fixed Income believes the bond market is highly congested and has weak odds [31]. - CITIC Securities believes that new policy - based financial tools will support key areas [31]. 3.3.6 Today's Reminders - On July 1, 136 bonds will be listed, 86 bonds will be issued, 38 bonds will be paid, and 135 bonds will have principal and interest repaid [32]. 3.4 Stock Market Key News - The A - share market rose on Monday, with over 4000 stocks rising [33]. - The Hong Kong stock market declined, with the Hang Seng Index down 0.87% [34]. - The Taiwan stock market suffered a "stock - exchange double - kill" [34]. - The IPO applications of 5 companies on the Science and Technology Innovation Board were accepted [34]. - The IPO of Kaiyuan Securities was terminated [35]. - In the first half of 2025, 43 new stocks were listed in Hong Kong, and the funds raised exceeded that of 2024 [35]. - In the first half of 2025, 163 public funds conducted 40,093 research visits to 1943 A - share listed companies [35]. - In the first half of 2025, 1493 A - share companies planned 1984 merger and acquisition plans, with 102 being major reorganizations [36]. - The Zheng Yutong family in Hong Kong received HK$88.2 billion in refinancing [36].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2025-07-01 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2508 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 多空分歧出现，原油震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：由于美国总统特朗普发表评论预示伊朗和以色列冲突将结束，市场交易地缘逻辑弱化。 随后消息传出伊朗和以色列宣布正式停火。这引发投资者大幅调整预期，认为中东地缘因素对于油 价的影响不会进一步激化 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-07-01 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 供需结构不佳，甲醇震荡偏弱 | 备注： 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 甲醇（MA） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：在地缘风险快速降温以后，甲醇期货溢价陆续回吐。随着国内甲醇产能持续释放，周度 产量和周度开工率显著回升，内部供应压力有增无减。叠加海外船货不断到港，外部供应预期逐渐 增大，港口迎来累库周期，华东和华 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of the stock index is mainly fluctuating strongly, and the medium - term view is rising. The overall reference view is fluctuating strongly. Policy - side favorable expectations provide strong support, and the risk preference of the stock market has recovered recently [1][4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the IH2509 variety, the short - term view is fluctuating, the medium - term view is rising, the intraday view is fluctuating strongly, and the overall view reference is fluctuating strongly. The core logic is that policy - side favorable expectations form strong support [1] 2. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of IF, IH, IC, and IM is fluctuating strongly, and the medium - term view is rising, with a reference view of fluctuating strongly. Yesterday, each stock index fluctuated and sorted out, rising slightly throughout the day. The full - market trading volume of the stock market was 1575.6 billion yuan, a reduction of 47.5 billion yuan compared with the previous day. The manufacturing PMI data in June showed a marginal improvement. The risk preference of the stock market has recovered recently due to policy - side support, expectations of incremental funds entering the market, and the easing of external risk factors in the short term. The large - finance and AI technology sectors have become the market's main lines, and the market sentiment is positive and optimistic [4]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 7 月 1 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：昨日国债期货均震荡回调。消息面，统计局公布了 6 月 PMI 数据，其中制造业 PMI 为 49.7， 上月为 49.5，表现出向好趋势，并且新订单指数回升至扩张区间。制造业 PMI 边际向好意味着未来 降息的紧迫性有所下降，国债期货价格承压。另外，近期股市风险偏好回升较快，股债跷跷板效应增 强，国债的投资者偏好有所下降。不过目前内需复苏仍需要政策面托底需求端，未来仍需要偏宽松的 货币环境，国债期货的下方支撑力量较强。总的来说，短期内国债期货震荡整理为主。 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | ...

策略参考 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：偏强 参考观点：震荡偏强 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 7 月 1 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 核心逻辑：目前豆粕交易逻辑并未改变，来自于原料大豆进口成本的变化，令豆粕期价跟随外盘美豆波动 节奏。昨夜美国农业部公布了备受瞩目的种植面积报告和库存报告。报告显示， 6 月 1 日美国大豆库存总 量高于市场预期，给近月美豆合约带来压力。实际大豆种植面积数据对远月美豆合约偏利多。受此影响， 国内远期豆类合约获得支撑，豆粕期价止跌回稳后，反弹行情持续。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) ...

| 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2509 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 供需格局平稳，矿价延续震荡 | 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 7 月 1 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需格局迎来改善，淡季钢厂生产积极，矿石终端消耗维持高位，需求韧性表现尚可，给 予矿价强支撑。与此同时，港口到货和矿商发运均迎来回落，多因财年末冲量结束后外矿供应如期收 缩，但整体维持相对高位，关注后续降幅情况，相应的内矿生产恢复积极，已重回年内高位，矿石高 位趋稳 ...

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of rebar 2510 are expected to be volatile, with an intraday bias towards strength. Attention should be paid to the support at the MA20 line, and the core logic is that the real - world contradictions are limited and steel prices are oscillating at low levels [2] - The supply - demand pattern of rebar has not changed significantly. Supply pressure is increasing as production by construction steel mills is active and weekly output is rising. Demand is weak, showing seasonal characteristics of the off - season. The steel price is under pressure, but the lack of an inventory inflection point means the real - world contradictions are small, and the steel price is expected to continue to oscillate. Attention should be paid to demand changes [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Contents Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2510, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are "volatile", "volatile", and "volatile with a bias towards strength" respectively. The reference view is to focus on the support at the MA20 line, and the core logic is that real - world contradictions are limited and steel prices are oscillating at low levels [2] Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand situation of rebar shows an increase in supply pressure as steel mill production is active and a weakening in demand due to off - season characteristics. This "supply increase and demand weakness" situation leads to a seasonal weakening of the fundamentals, pressuring the steel price. However, the absence of an inventory inflection point limits real - world contradictions, and the steel price is expected to oscillate. Attention should be paid to demand changes [3]