核心观点 焦炭：成本强支撑，焦炭偏强震荡 宝城期货研究所 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，本 人承诺以勤勉的职业态度，独 立、客观地出具本报告。本报 告清晰准确地反映了本人的研 究观点。本人不曾因，不因， 也将不会因本报告中的具体推 荐意见或观点而直接或间接接 收到任何形式的报酬。 焦煤焦炭 | 周报 2025 年 10 月 20 日 焦煤焦炭周报 专业研究·创造价值 乐观氛围支撑，煤焦偏强运行 焦煤：强预期仍存，焦煤偏强运行 本周焦煤供增需减，基本面边际走弱，但现货市场下游采购需求释 放，对价格形成一定支撑。iFind 数据显示，截至 10 月 16 日，甘其毛 都口岸蒙 5#精煤库提价 1260 元/吨，周环比下跌 20 元；吕梁低硫主焦 煤报价 1480 元/吨，周环比持平。供需数据方面，钢联数据显示，截至 10 月 17 日当周，全国 523 家炼焦煤矿精煤日均产量 77.9 万吨，环比 增 2.7 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Futures: In the short term, the stock index will mainly experience wide - range fluctuations. Last week, all stock indices fluctuated and declined, with the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 experiencing relatively large declines. Overseas uncertainty risk factors have increased recently, and the risk - aversion sentiment has risen. Stocks with large previous gains face technical adjustment pressure due to profit - taking. Macroeconomically, the inflation and credit data in September were weak, strengthening the expectation of future policy - driven demand - stabilizing measures, which provides long - term support for the stock index. A major policy meeting will be held from October 20th to 23rd, with a high certainty of policy - driven demand and expectation stabilization. Overall, the subsequent market trend depends on the rhythm of the game between profit - taking sentiment and policy - driven positive expectations [3][81]. - ETF Options and Stock Index Options: Maintain a bull spread in the long term. The implied volatility of options has been relatively stable. Since the probability of the stock index rising in the long term is high, one can hold a bull spread or a ratio spread for a moderately bullish position [4][82]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 Stock Index Trends - Last week, all stock indices fluctuated and declined, with the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 having relatively large declines. Overseas uncertainty risk factors have increased recently, and the risk - aversion sentiment has risen. Stocks with large previous gains face technical adjustment pressure due to profit - taking. Macroeconomically, the inflation and credit data in September were weak, strengthening the expectation of future policy - driven demand - stabilizing measures, which provides long - term support for the stock index. A major policy meeting will be held from October 20th to 23rd, with a high certainty of policy - driven demand and expectation stabilization. The subsequent market trend depends on the rhythm of the game between profit - taking sentiment and policy - driven positive expectations [9]. 3.1.2 Option Price Trends - This week, the 50ETF had a weekly decline of 1.90%, closing at 3.045; the 300ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) had a weekly decline of 0.37%, closing at 4.604; the 300ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) had a weekly decline of 0.46%, closing at 4.747; the CSI 300 Index had a weekly decline of 0.44%, closing at 4501.92; the CSI 1000 Index had a weekly increase of 0.21%, closing at 7438.19; the 500ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) had a weekly increase of 0.26%, closing at 7.261; the 500ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) had a weekly increase of 0.24%, closing at 2.903; the ChiNext ETF had a weekly increase of 2.24%, closing at 3.062; the Shenzhen 100ETF had a weekly increase of 1.85%, closing at 3.475; the SSE 50 Index had a weekly decline of 1.98%, closing at 2909.74; the STAR 50ETF had a weekly increase of 1.78%, closing at 1.43; the E Fund STAR 50ETF had a weekly increase of 1.90%, closing at 1.40 [17]. 3.1.3 Futures Basis and Monthly Spreads - The basis of the four stock index futures varieties: The basis of IF and IH is at a normal quantile level, while IM and IC show a significant backwardation in the far - month futures. The inter - period spreads of IC and IM futures have declined, indicating a decrease in the market's short - term risk preference for IC and IM [23]. 3.2 Option Indicators 3.2.1 PCR Indicators - The trading volume PCR of SSE 50ETF options was 113.82, and the previous trading day's volume PCR was 78.41; the open - interest PCR was 71.82, and the previous trading day's open - interest PCR was 70.73. The trading volume PCR of SSE 300ETF options was 153.61, and the previous trading day's volume PCR was 110.31; the open - interest PCR was 110.15, and the previous trading day's open - interest PCR was 106.38. The trading volume PCR of Shenzhen 300ETF options was 73.47, and the previous trading day's volume PCR was 72.84; the open - interest PCR was 98.99, and the previous trading day's open - interest PCR was 92.75. The trading volume PCR of CSI 300 Index options was 64.59, and the previous trading day's volume PCR was 67.07; the open - interest PCR was 74.10, and the previous trading day's open - interest PCR was 81.48. The trading volume PCR of CSI 1000 Index options was 85.53, and the previous trading day's volume PCR was 84.96; the open - interest PCR was 93.89, and the previous trading day's open - interest PCR was 110.83. The trading volume PCR of SSE CSI 500ETF options was 139.83, and the previous trading day's volume PCR was 102.40; the open - interest PCR was 133.60, and the previous trading day's open - interest PCR was 130.18. The trading volume PCR of Shenzhen CSI 500ETF options was 143.53, and the previous trading day's volume PCR was 94.41; the open - interest PCR was 83.96, and the previous trading day's open - interest PCR was 84.33. The trading volume PCR of ChiNext ETF options was 89.29, and the previous trading day's volume PCR was 86.21; the open - interest PCR was 134.79, and the previous trading day's open - interest PCR was 134.46. The trading volume PCR of Shenzhen 100ETF options was 410.60, and the previous trading day's volume PCR was 126.21; the open - interest PCR was 127.97, and the previous trading day's open - interest PCR was 121.02. The trading volume PCR of SSE 50 Index options was 67.73, and the previous trading day's volume PCR was 56.08; the open - interest PCR was 60.10, and the previous trading day's open - interest PCR was 60.46. The trading volume PCR of STAR 50ETF options was 118.88, and the previous trading day's volume PCR was 103.93; the open - interest PCR was 107.09, and the previous trading day's open - interest PCR was 107.32. The trading volume PCR of E Fund STAR 50ETF options was 83.92, and the previous trading day's volume PCR was 84.17; the open - interest PCR was 93.29, and the previous trading day's open - interest PCR was 91.94 [34]. 3.2.2 Implied Volatility - The implied volatility of the at - the - money options of SSE 50ETF options in October 2025 was 16.72%, and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying was 15.73%. The implied volatility of the at - the - money options of SSE 300ETF options in October 2025 was 17.48%, and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying was 17.28%. The implied volatility of the at - the - money options of Shenzhen 300ETF options in October 2025 was 18.41%, and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying was 17.24%. The implied volatility of the at - the - money options of CSI 300 Index options in October 2025 was 17.88%, and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying was 17.24%. The implied volatility of the at - the - money options of CSI 1000 Index options in October 2025 was 23.62%, and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying was 22.03%. The implied volatility of the at - the - money options of SSE CSI 500ETF options in October 2025 was 22.44%, and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying was 22.22%. The implied volatility of the at - the - money options of Shenzhen CSI 500ETF options in October 2025 was 22.75%, and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying was 22.16%. The implied volatility of the at - the - money options of ChiNext ETF options in October 2025 was 37.73%, and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying was 37.69%. The implied volatility of the at - the - money options of Shenzhen 100ETF options in October 2025 was 23.32%, and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying was 24.08%. The implied volatility of the at - the - money options of SSE 50 Index options in October 2025 was 17.53%, and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying was 15.77%. The implied volatility of the at - the - money options of STAR 50ETF options in October 2025 was 44.27%, and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying was 44.44%. The implied volatility of the at - the - money options of E Fund STAR 50ETF options in October 2025 was 43.69%, and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying was 44.55% [54]. 3.3 Conclusion - Futures: In the short term, the stock index will mainly experience wide - range fluctuations. Last week, all stock indices fluctuated and declined, with the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 experiencing relatively large declines. Overseas uncertainty risk factors have increased recently, and the risk - aversion sentiment has risen. Stocks with large previous gains face technical adjustment pressure due to profit - taking. Macroeconomically, the inflation and credit data in September were weak, strengthening the expectation of future policy - driven demand - stabilizing measures, which provides long - term support for the stock index. A major policy meeting will be held from October 20th to 23rd, with a high certainty of policy - driven demand and expectation stabilization. Overall, the subsequent market trend depends on the rhythm of the game between profit - taking sentiment and policy - driven positive expectations [81]. - ETF Options and Stock Index Options: Maintain a bull spread in the long term. The implied volatility of options has been relatively stable. Since the probability of the stock index rising in the long term is high, one can hold a bull spread or a ratio spread for a moderately bullish position [82].

Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Views - The report offers a comprehensive overview of macro - economic data, commodity investment trends, financial news, and stock market updates. It indicates that the economy is generally stable with some positive signs, but also faces challenges such as trade uncertainties and potential risks in the financial market. The bond market is expected to be in an oscillatory pattern, while the stock market is expected to have long - term upward momentum with short - term adjustments [17][20][32]. Summary by Directory 1. Macro Data Overview - GDP in Q2 2025 had a year - on - year growth of 5.2%, slightly lower than the previous quarter. The manufacturing PMI in September was 49.8%, showing a slight improvement. The growth rate of social financing scale and M1, M2 money supply had changes, and the CPI and PPI were still in the negative range [1]. 2. Commodity Investment Reference Comprehensive - The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy. Sino - US economic and trade consultations are expected to resume. The US government is relaxing some tariff policies. The trading rules of gold and silver futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange will be adjusted. Analysts expect the LPR to remain flat in October with potential for future cuts, and the US will extend the tariff credit arrangement for auto parts imports [2][3]. Metals - International precious metal futures generally declined, and the base metal market may oscillate widely. Gold has increased by over 60% this year, and there are different views on its future trend. Silver prices have also risen significantly, with a nearly 70% increase this year. Some domestic and Japanese precious metal prices have reached new highs, and some companies plan to raise prices [5][6][7]. Coal, Coke, Steel and Minerals - The National Energy Administration aims to promote the high - quality development of coal washing, and the US Treasury Secretary urges the World Bank to fund various energy sources including coal [11]. Energy and Chemicals - China has achieved multiple breakthroughs in the energy field. The new regulations on the fair opening of oil and gas pipeline networks will be implemented. India's oil imports from Russia have increased, and Egypt will freeze domestic fuel prices [12]. 3. Financial News Compilation Open Market - This week, 789.1 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open market. On October 17, the central bank conducted 164.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 244.2 billion yuan on that day [16]. Important News - Sino - US economic and trade consultations are expected to resume. The US government is relaxing tariff policies, and the US president admits that high - tariff strategies are unsustainable. Analysts expect the LPR to remain flat in October. The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy. The government will promote green trade and agricultural production, and the financial situation shows a stable and upward trend [17][18][20]. Bond Market Summary - The Chinese bond market strengthened, with yields of long - term bonds declining. Bond futures rose, and the inter - bank market funds were stable and loose. The bond market is affected by policy expectations and stock market fluctuations and is in an oscillatory pattern [26]. Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar declined, and the US dollar index rose, with most non - US currencies falling [31]. Research Report Highlights - Different securities firms have different views on the bond and stock markets. Generally, the bond market is expected to oscillate, and the stock market is expected to have long - term upward momentum with short - term adjustments [32][33]. 4. Stock Market Important News - As of October 19, 2025, the number of newly established funds this year has exceeded that of 2024, with stock - type funds reaching a 15 - year high in terms of new establishment and issuance scale. The ETF market has seen significant capital inflows, and two capital - market monetary policy tools have effectively boosted market confidence [37][38].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents the arbitrage data of various futures varieties on October 20, 2025, including the basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads of different commodities in multiple sectors such as power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, aiming to provide reference for investors in futures trading. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Power Coal - Basis data from October 13 to October 17, 2025, shows that the basis was - 87.4, - 81.4, - 70.4, - 60.4, and - 53.4 yuan/ton respectively, with a continuous increase trend. The spreads of 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, and 9 - month minus 5 - month were all 0 during this period [2]. 3.2 Energy Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - For fuel oil, INE crude oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt, data such as basis, ratio, and other indicators from October 13 to October 17, 2025, are provided. For example, the basis of INE crude oil was 7.78, 6.92, 8.63, 15.20, and 82.20 yuan/ton respectively [7]. 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - **Basis**: From October 13 to October 17, 2025, the basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP are presented. For instance, the basis of rubber was - 690, - 595, - 645, - 600, and - 445 yuan/ton respectively [9]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, and 9 - month minus 5 - month for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are given. For example, the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread of rubber was - 30 yuan/ton [11]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3 * methanol from October 13 to October 17, 2025, are provided. For example, the LLDPE - PVC spread on October 17 was 2187 yuan/ton [11]. 3.3 Black Metals - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month (10) minus 1 - month, and 9 - month (10) minus 5 - month for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are presented. For example, the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread of rebar was 57.0 yuan/ton [20]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot - rolled coil from October 13 to October 17, 2025, are provided. For example, the rebar/iron ore ratio on October 17 was 3.95 [20]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - The basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from October 13 to October 17, 2025, are provided. For example, the basis of copper on October 17 was 350 yuan/ton [28]. 3.4.2 London Market - Data such as LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss for LME non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin) on October 17, 2025, are presented. For example, the LME spread of copper was (16.83) [33]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, corn, etc., from October 13 to October 17, 2025, are provided. For example, the basis of soybeans No.1 on October 17 was - 48 yuan/ton [39]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, and 9 - month minus 5 - month for various agricultural products are given. For example, the 5 - month minus 1 - month spread of soybeans No.1 was 32 yuan/ton [39]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, etc., from October 13 to October 17, 2025, are provided. For example, the soybean oil/soybean meal ratio on October 17 was 2.88 [39]. 3.6 Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from October 13 to October 17, 2025, are provided. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on October 17 was 29.03 [50]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of next - month minus current - month and next - quarter minus current - quarter for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are presented. For example, the next - month minus current - month spread of CSI 300 was - 42.5 [50].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - In the short term, Treasury bond futures will fluctuate with a strong bias. Last week, Treasury bond futures fluctuated and rose. Recently, external uncertainty risk factors have continued to increase, and market risk aversion has risen, providing strong support for Treasury bond futures. From a macro perspective, the inflation and financial data in September were still weak. In the future, a relatively loose monetary environment is needed to stabilize the demand side, and there are still expectations of policy easing, which will provide strong support for Treasury bond futures in the medium and long term. Overall, affected by the short - term increase in risk aversion and medium - long - term easing expectations, Treasury bond futures will fluctuate with a strong bias in the short term [3][28] Summary by Directory 1 Market Review - **1.1 Treasury Bond Trends**: Information about the price trends of TL2512, T2512, TF2512, and TS2512 is presented, with data sources from IFind and Baocheng Futures Financial Research Institute [7][9][12] 2 Treasury Bond Indicators - **2.1 Interest Rate Term Structure**: Diagrams of the Ministry of Finance - local bond interest rate term structure and the ChinaBond Treasury bond interest rate term structure are provided, with data from IFind and Baocheng Futures Financial Research Institute [17][18] - **2.2 Central Bank Open - Market Operations**: A diagram of central bank open - market operations is provided [21] - **2.3 Treasury Bond Yield Curve**: A diagram of the Treasury bond yield curve is provided, with data from IFind and Baocheng Futures Financial Research Institute [22] - **2.4 Market Interest Rates and Policy Interest Rates**: A diagram of market interest rates and policy interest rates is provided, with data from IFind and Baocheng Futures Financial Research Institute [26] 3 Conclusion - In the short term, Treasury bond futures will fluctuate with a strong bias. Last week, Treasury bond futures fluctuated and rose. Recently, external uncertainty risk factors have continued to increase, and market risk aversion has risen, providing strong support for Treasury bond futures. From a macro perspective, the inflation and financial data in September were still weak. In the future, a relatively loose monetary environment is needed to stabilize the demand side, and there are still expectations of policy easing, which will provide strong support for Treasury bond futures in the medium and long term. Overall, affected by the short - term increase in risk aversion and medium - long - term easing expectations, Treasury bond futures will fluctuate with a strong bias in the short term [28]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On October 17, 2025, all stock indices fluctuated and declined, showing weakness throughout the day. The total trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1954.4 billion yuan, an increase of 570 million yuan from the previous day. Recently, overseas uncertainty risk factors have increased, and the risk - aversion sentiment has risen. Stocks with large previous gains face technical adjustment pressure due to profit - taking. From a macro perspective, the inflation and credit data in September were weak, strengthening the expectation of demand - stabilizing policies on the policy front, which provides medium - to - long - term support for the stock indices. A major policy meeting will be held next week, and the policy front is highly likely to stabilize demand and expectations. In general, the subsequent market trend depends on the rhythm change of the game between profit - taking sentiment and policy -利好 expectations. In the short term, the stock indices are expected to remain in a wide - range shock. Currently, the implied volatility of options remains relatively stable. Considering the medium - to - long - term upward trend of the stock indices, investors can continue to hold bull spreads or covered calls [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Option Indicators - **Index and ETF Performance**: On October 17, 2025, the 50ETF fell 1.55% to 3.110; the 300ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) fell 2.05% to 4.624; the 300ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) fell 2.13% to 4.768; the CSI 300 Index fell 2.26% to 4514.23; the CSI 1000 Index fell 2.92% to 7185.48; the 500ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) fell 3.03% to 7.114; the 500ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) fell 2.84% to 2.844; the ChiNext ETF fell 3.28% to 2.915; the Shenzhen 100ETF fell 2.92% to 3.393; the SSE 50 Index fell 1.70% to 2967.77; the STAR 50ETF fell 3.63% to 1.43; the E Fund STAR 50ETF fell 3.68% to 1.39 [5] - **Volume and Open Interest PCR**: The report provides the volume and open interest PCR data of various options on October 17, 2025, and their changes compared with the previous trading day. For example, the volume PCR of SSE 50ETF options was 107.36 (previous day: 94.91), and the open interest PCR was 80.26 (previous day: 84.60) [6] - **Implied Volatility and Historical Volatility**: The report lists the implied volatility of at - the - money options in November 2025 and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying assets for various options. For instance, the implied volatility of at - the - money SSE 50ETF options in November 2025 was 14.46%, and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying asset was 13.31% [7] 3.2 Relevant Charts - **SSE 50ETF Options**: It includes charts of the SSE 50ETF's trend, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [9][11][13][19] - **SSE 300ETF Options**: There are charts of the SSE 300ETF's trend, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [20][22][24][26] - **SZSE 300ETF Options**: The charts cover the SZSE 300ETF's trend, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [32][34][36][38] - **CSI 300 Index Options**: Include charts of the CSI 300 Index's trend, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [45][47][49][51] - **CSI 1000 Index Options**: There are charts of the CSI 1000 Index's trend, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [58][62][64][66] - **SSE 500ETF Options**: The charts involve the SSE 500ETF's trend, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [73][75][77][79] - **SZSE 500ETF Options**: Include charts of the SZSE 500ETF's trend, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [86][89][91][92] - **ChiNext ETF Options**: There are charts of the ChiNext ETF's trend, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [99][101][103][105] - **Shenzhen 100ETF Options**: The charts cover the Shenzhen 100ETF's trend, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [112][114][116][118] - **SSE 50 Index Options**: Include charts of the SSE 50 Index's trend, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [125][127][129][131] - **STAR 50ETF Options**: There are charts of the STAR 50ETF's trend, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [138][140][141][147] - **E Fund STAR 50ETF Options**: The charts cover the E Fund STAR 50ETF's trend, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [148][150][151][154]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall economic situation shows a complex picture with some indicators improving while others remain weak. For example, GDP growth has a slight decline, but export and import values have increased. The gold market has strong upward momentum, and the bond market is in an interval - shock pattern. The stock market has mixed performance in different regions and sectors [1][5][22][33] - Policy measures are expected to play an important role in stabilizing the economy. The government may introduce new policies to support foreign trade, and the central bank's monetary policy may be adjusted to address low - inflation issues [2][30] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Data - GDP growth in Q2 2025 was 5.2% year - on - year, slightly lower than the previous quarter's 5.4% [1] - In September 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, up from 49.4% in the previous period; the non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 50.0%, down from 50.3% [1] - Social financing scale increment in September 2025 was affected by high - base effects, and government bond issuance decreased [28][29] - Export and import values in September 2025 increased year - on - year, with export growth at 8.3% and import growth at 7.4% [1] 3.2 Commodity Investment 3.2.1 Comprehensive - The Ministry of Commerce will introduce new policies to stabilize foreign trade and will optimize the license process for rare - earth export controls [2][16] - The trading fees of some options on the Shanghai Futures Exchange will be adjusted from November 10, 2025 [2] - The China E - commerce Logistics Index in September 2025 reached a new high for the year, with the total business volume index rising [3][18] 3.2.2 Metals - On October 17, 2025, spot gold reached $4380 per ounce, and spot silver hit a record high of $54.4 per ounce. Gold's upward momentum is expected to continue until 2026 [5] - The US may take more actions on rare - earth issues and may increase its stake in rare - earth companies [6] 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - The China Iron and Steel Association held a symposium to clarify the goal of building a modern steel power by 2030 and proposed relevant measures [7][8] 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - The National Development and Reform Commission issued a regulatory measure for the fair opening of oil and gas pipeline network facilities, which will take effect on November 1, 2025 [9] - Russia plans to produce 5.1 billion tons of oil in 2025, a 1% decrease from last year due to OPEC+ agreements [9] - The global oil industry may face a supply shortage in the future, and Saudi Aramco's CEO called for increased investment in exploration and production [9] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - The summer grain purchase in 2025 ended in September, with a total purchase of 107.95 million tons of wheat. The price of wheat in the main producing areas has been rising steadily since October [13] - The US is discussing soybean processing cooperation with some South American countries and is urging South Korea to increase soybean imports [13][14] 3.3 Financial News 3.3.1 Open Market - On October 16, 2025, the central bank conducted 236 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 376 billion yuan due to 612 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing [15] 3.3.2 Important News - The Ministry of Commerce responded to multiple hot issues, including Sino - US economic and trade talks and rare - earth export controls [2][16] - The survey of economists shows that most are positive about the stock market in Q4 2025 and expect economic improvement [17] - The VAT invoice data shows that the equipment renewal of enterprises is accelerating, and the new - energy vehicle sales have increased by 30.1% year - on - year [18] 3.3.3 Bond Market - The Chinese bond market is generally strong, with most spot - bond yields declining. The 30 - year treasury bond "25 Super Long Special Treasury Bond 06" has a significant decline in yield [22] - The exchange - traded bond market has mixed performance, and the convertible bond market also shows different trends among different bonds [23] - The yields of European and US bonds mostly declined [26] 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1249 on October 17, 2025, down 11 points from the previous trading day [27] - The US dollar index fell 0.31% in New York trading, and most non - US currencies rose [27] 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - Banks are facing increasing profit pressure, and investment income is becoming more important. There may be some bond - selling pressure in Q4 [28] - September's financial data reflects weak real - economy demand, and the social financing balance growth rate may decline slightly in Q4 [28][29] - The bond ETF market has developed rapidly, but there is still much room for growth compared with the European and American markets [29] 3.4 Stock Market - On October 17, 2025, the A - share market had a narrow - range shock. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.1%, and the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.25% [33] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 0.09%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 1.18%. Southbound funds had a large - scale net purchase [33]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **沪铜**: The Shanghai copper contract continued to decline with decreasing positions, dropping nearly 700 yuan/ton during the day. Due to strong market risk - aversion demand, precious metals strengthened, while non - ferrous metals and stock indices were weak. A recent decline in gold prices led to a significant drop in copper prices. Short - term caution is needed for a potential fall after a peak in gold prices. Technically, attention should be paid to the support at the 84,000 yuan mark [6]. - **沪铝**: The Shanghai aluminum contract also declined with decreasing positions, falling nearly 100 yuan/ton during the day. With strong market risk - aversion demand, precious metals strengthened, and non - ferrous metals and stock indices were weak. Technically, the aluminum price faced significant pressure at the 21,000 yuan mark, and support at the 60 - day moving average should be monitored [7]. - **沪镍**: The Shanghai nickel contract showed weak oscillations with little change in positions. Given strong market risk - aversion demand, precious metals strengthened, and non - ferrous metals and stock indices were weak. Nickel was relatively resistant to decline in the sector due to its weaker macro - attribute. Short - term attention should be paid to the low since late September [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: High copper prices still suppressed terminal demand, resulting in weak new orders. The operating rate of the enameled wire industry rebounded by 3.87 percentage points to 75.2% this week, and new orders increased by 6.96 percentage points but had not returned to normal levels [10]. - **Aluminum**: As of October 16, the SMM imported bauxite index was reported at $74.45/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The average CIF prices of various types of bauxite from different regions remained stable compared to the previous trading day [11]. - **Nickel**: On October 17, the mainstream reference contract for refined nickel in the Shanghai market was the SHFE nickel 2511 contract. The mainstream premiums and discounts and prices of different types of nickel (Jinchuan electrolytic nickel, Russian nickel, Norwegian nickel, and nickel beans) were provided [12]. 3.2 Related Charts - **Copper**: Charts related to copper included the copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper (social inventory + bonded area inventory), overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [13][15][16]. - **Aluminum**: Charts related to aluminum were the aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), alumina inventory, and aluminum rod inventory [26][28][30]. - **Nickel**: Charts related to nickel covered the nickel basis, LME nickel inventory and cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [39][41][42].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The main contract price of rebar oscillated with a daily increase of 0.03%, and the volume and open interest contracted. The demand for rebar has improved, but its sustainability is questionable, the inventory reduction pressure is high, and the supply remains low. With cost support, the steel price is expected to continue the oscillatory bottom - seeking trend, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [4]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil oscillated weakly with a daily decline of 0.16%, the volume decreased, and the open interest increased. The high - supply pressure persists, the demand resilience is weakening, and the supply - demand pattern of hot - rolled coil is weak. With cost support, the price will continue the weak bottom - seeking trend, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore oscillated weakly with a daily decline of 0.19%, the volume decreased, and the open interest increased. The supply of iron ore is increasing, the industry concerns remain, the demand downward pressure is emerging, the fundamentals of the iron ore market are weakening, and the high - valued iron ore price will continue to be under pressure and run weakly. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - From January to September 2025, China's shipbuilding completion volume was 38.53 million deadweight tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.0%; the new order volume was 66.6 million deadweight tons, a year - on - year decrease of 23.5%; and the order - holding volume as of the end of September was 242.24 million deadweight tons, a year - on - year increase of 25.3%. China's three major shipbuilding indicators maintained global leadership [6]. - Starting from 00:00 on October 18, 2025, Sichuan Province will suspend the implementation of the 2025 automobile scrapping and replacement subsidy policies. The follow - up adjustment policies will be announced in a timely manner after being determined [7]. - On October 16, 2025, Australia launched the first anti - dumping and counter - subsidy sunset review investigations on precision steel pipes from China and South Korea at the request of domestic enterprises [8]. 2. Spot Market - For rebar, the Shanghai price was 3,170 yuan, down 10 yuan; the Tianjin price was 3,110 yuan, down 10 yuan; and the national average price was 3,215 yuan, up 3 yuan. For hot - rolled coil, the Shanghai price was 3,270 yuan, down 10 yuan; the Tianjin price was 3,190 yuan, unchanged; and the national average price was 3,331 yuan, down 2 yuan. The price of Tangshan billet was 2,920 yuan, unchanged, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,140 yuan, unchanged [9]. - The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 777 yuan, unchanged; the price of Tangshan iron concentrate powder was 807 yuan, unchanged. The Australian sea freight was 10.39 yuan, up 0.04 yuan; the Brazilian sea freight was 23.84 yuan, up 0.23 yuan. The SGX swap (current month) was 105.43 yuan, down 0.25 yuan; the Platts index (CFR, 62%) was 105.95 yuan, down 0.25 yuan [9]. 3. Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar active contract was 3,037 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.03%. The trading volume was 854,671 lots, a decrease of 181,696 lots; the open interest was 2,004,317 lots, a decrease of 35,070 lots [13]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil active contract was 3,204 yuan, with a daily decline of 0.16%. The trading volume was 487,804 lots, a decrease of 153,898 lots; the open interest was 1,496,079 lots, an increase of 16,084 lots [13]. - The closing price of the iron ore active contract was 771.0 yuan, with a daily decline of 0.19%. The trading volume was 271,218 lots, a decrease of 127,333 lots; the open interest was 545,426 lots, an increase of 9,848 lots [13]. 4. Related Charts - The report provides charts on steel inventory (including rebar and hot - rolled coil inventory), iron ore inventory (including national 45 - port inventory, 247 - steel mill inventory), and steel mill production situation (including blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, and profitability) [15][20][30]. 5.后市研判 - For rebar, the supply - demand pattern has changed. The production of construction steel mills is weakly stable, the weekly output has decreased, and the supply is in a continuous contraction state but the decline is slowing. The demand has recovered after the festival, but the high - frequency daily trading volume is low, and the demand weakness remains. With cost support, the steel price is expected to continue the oscillatory bottom - seeking trend [41]. - For hot - rolled coil, the supply - demand pattern continues to weaken. The inventory is increasing, the production of plate steel mills is weakly stable, the supply pressure is high, and the demand improvement is questionable. With cost support, the price will continue the weak bottom - seeking trend [41]. - For iron ore, the supply - demand pattern has weakened. The steel mill production is weakly stable, the terminal consumption of iron ore is declining, the supply is increasing, and the high - valued iron ore price will continue to be under pressure and run weakly [42].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Coke**: As of the week ending October 17, the combined daily average coke output of coking plants and steel mills was 1.1123 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12,700 tons. The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills nationwide was 2.4095 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5900 tons. This week, the coke inventories of upstream and downstream industries decreased. The inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 572,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 65,500 tons; the coke inventory of 247 steel mills was 6.3944 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 113,800 tons. Overall, both supply and demand of coke decreased, with a more obvious reduction on the supply side, and the overall industrial chain inventory decreased. The fundamentals are relatively neutral, and the upward driving force mainly lies in the supply support of coking coal at the cost end and the expected policy benefits [6][34]. - **Coking Coal**: As of the week ending October 17, the daily average output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 779,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 27,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 6000 tons. At the import end, since October 8, the Ganqimaodu Port has resumed traffic, and the daily number of passing vehicles has returned to around 1100 - 1300. At the demand end, the combined daily average coke output of sample coking plants and steel mills was 1.1123 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12,700 tons. In terms of inventory, downstream coking plants and steel mills actively purchased this week, and the coking coal inventory was transferred downstream. As of the week ending October 17, the coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 9.9737 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 383,100 tons, and the coal inventory of 247 steel mills was 7.8832 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 71,900 tons. Overall, the fundamental support for coking coal is insufficient, but recent weather in major production areas and anti - involution effects have caused disturbances, driving the main coking coal futures contract to maintain a range - bound operation [7][35]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - **China Shenhua**: In September, China Shenhua's coal sales volume decreased by 1.6% year - on - year. The commercial coal output in September was 27.6 million tons, and the cumulative output in the first nine months was 250.9 million tons, with year - on - year increases of 0.7% and a decrease of 0.4% respectively. The coal sales volume was 36.3 million tons, and the cumulative sales volume in the first nine months was 316.5 million tons, with year - on - year decreases of 1.6% and 8.4% respectively [9]. - **Online Auction of Coking Coal by Mongolia's Small TT Company**: On October 17, Mongolia's Small TT Company conducted an online auction of coking coal. The starting price of 1/3 coking raw coal A24, V33, S0.9, G73, Mt1.9 was $60.8 per ton, the same as the previous auction on October 7. All 204,800 tons of the listed quantity were sold at a transaction price of $63.8 per ton (all prices are tax - exclusive). The supply location is the supervision area of Ganqimaodu Port in China, and the supply time is within 180 days after payment, with the final supply date being April 15, 2026 [10]. 3.2 Spot Market | Variety | Current Value | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke (Rizhao Port Standard First - Grade FOB) | 1,520 | 0.00% | 3.40% | - 10.06% | - 21.65% | | Coke (Qingdao Port Standard First - Grade Ex - warehouse) | 1,460 | 1.39% | 0.00% | - 9.88% | - 20.65% | | Coking Coal (Ganqimaodu Port Mongolian Coal) | 1,260 | - 1.56% | - 1.56% | 6.78% | - 20.25% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port Australian - Produced) | 1,540 | 1.32% | - 4.35% | 3.36% | - 16.76% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port Shanxi - Produced) | 1,660 | 0.00% | - 2.92% | 8.50% | - 14.87% | [11] 3.3 Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Increase/Decrease | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | | 1,676.0 | 1.64 | 1,691.5 | 1,668.5 | 20,491 | - 1,474 | 40,735 | - 1,812 | | Coking Coal | | 1,179.0 | 1.46 | 1,194.5 | 1,172.0 | 869,924 | - 111,364 | 606,535 | - 17,216 | [14] 3.4 Relevant Charts - **Coke Inventory**: Charts show the inventory data of 230 independent coking plants, port coke total inventory, 247 steel mill coking plants, and total coke inventory over the years [15][16][18] - **Coking Coal Inventory**: Charts show the inventory data of mine - mouth coking coal, port coking coal, 247 sample steel mills, and all - sample independent coking plants over the years [21][24][26] - **Other Charts**: Include domestic steel mill production, Shanghai terminal wire rod procurement, coal washing plant production, and coking plant operation [28][29][32] 3.5后市研判 - **Coke**: The supply and demand of coke both decreased, with a more obvious reduction on the supply side, and the overall industrial chain inventory decreased. The fundamentals are relatively neutral, and the upward driving force mainly lies in the supply support of coking coal at the cost end and the expected policy benefits [34] - **Coking Coal**: The fundamental support for coking coal is insufficient, but recent weather in major production areas and anti - involution effects have caused disturbances, driving the main coking coal futures contract to maintain a range - bound operation [35]