Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating is provided in the report [1][5] 2. Core View of the Report - The crude oil market is expected to be weak in the short - term, medium - term, and intraday, with a core logic of a weak macro and industrial environment, increased supply pressure, and the fading of "war premium" [1][5] 3. Summary According to Related Contents Price and Trend - The domestic crude oil futures 2512 contract closed 1.37% lower at 446.3 yuan/barrel on Tuesday night, and is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend on Wednesday [5] Factors Affecting the Market - The macro - bearish sentiment has weakened due to Trump's signal of easing, but the macro and industrial factors in the crude oil market remain weak [5] - Eight OPEC+ oil - producing countries decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, increasing the supply pressure in the oil market [5] - The Middle East geopolitical situation has shown signs of easing, and the "war premium" that previously supported oil prices has faded [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2512 is to oscillate, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the intraday view is to oscillate weakly. The overall view is to oscillate, as there are still long - and medium - term expectations for interest rate cuts, but the possibility of a comprehensive short - term interest rate cut is low [1]. - For TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is to oscillate weakly, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the reference view is to oscillate. The main logic is that although the tariff war has increased market risk - aversion sentiment, which is beneficial to treasury bond futures, the strong short - term domestic economic data reduces the necessity of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut. There is still a lack of effective domestic demand, and the expectation of policy easing provides strong support. In general, treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate at the bottom in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2512, the short - term is "oscillate", the medium - term is "oscillate", the intraday is "oscillate weakly", and the overall view is "oscillate". The core logic is that long - and medium - term interest rate cut expectations remain, but the short - term possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut is low [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, and TS. The intraday view is "oscillate weakly", the medium - term view is "oscillate", and the reference view is "oscillate". Treasury bond futures closed slightly higher yesterday. The tariff war has increased market risk - aversion sentiment, which is beneficial to treasury bond futures. However, the strong short - term domestic economic data reduces the necessity of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut, and the implied interest rate cut expectation between the market interest rate and the policy interest rate is weak, resulting in insufficient upward momentum for treasury bond futures. There is still a problem of insufficient effective domestic demand, and the expectation of a loose policy provides strong support. In the short term, treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate at the bottom [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the text Core Viewpoints of the Report - Both Shanghai rubber and synthetic rubber are expected to run weakly, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends being oscillatory and weak [1][5][7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views: Oscillatory and weak; reference view: Weakly running [1][5] - Core logic: Although the macro - bearish sentiment has weakened due to Trump's signal, the macro and industrial factors in the rubber market remain weak. On Tuesday night, the 2601 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures continued the oscillatory and weak trend, with the price slightly down 0.30% to 14,810 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain this trend on Wednesday [5] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views: Oscillatory and weak; reference view: Weakly running [1][6][7] - Core logic: After Trump's signal, the macro - bearish sentiment has weakened, but the macro and industrial factors in the rubber market are still weak. On Tuesday night, the 2512 contract of domestic synthetic rubber futures declined under pressure, with the price slightly down 0.65% to 10,720 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory and weak trend on Wednesday [7]

Report Overview - The report is the stock index futures morning report of Baocheng Futures on October 15, 2025, focusing on the financial futures stock index sector [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Report's Core View - The short - term view on the stock index is wide - range oscillation, the medium - term view is upward, and the intraday view is oscillating stronger [1][5] - The core logic is the conflict between short - term profit - taking willingness of funds and the fermentation of medium - and long - term policy - favorable expectations [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - For IH2512, the short - term trend is oscillation, the medium - term trend is upward, the intraday trend is oscillating stronger, and the overall view is wide - range oscillation. The core logic is the conflict between short - term profit - taking willingness of funds and the fermentation of medium - and long - term policy - favorable expectations [1] 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - The intraday view of IF, IH, IC, and IM is oscillating stronger, the medium - term view is upward, and the reference view is wide - range oscillation [5] - Yesterday, all stock indices oscillated and declined, with significant declines in IM and IC. The total trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 259.66 billion yuan, an increase of 22.24 billion yuan from the previous day [5] - Due to the resurgence of the tariff war and high valuation levels, investors' willingness to take profits has increased, leading to an oscillating correction of the stock index. However, the impact of Trump's tariff threat on A - shares is short - term and relatively limited [5] - There are still problems of insufficient effective domestic demand and external tariff disturbances. There are strong expectations for policy to stabilize the macro - fundamentals, which provides strong support for the stock index [5] - The investment attribute of A - shares is valued by the policy, and the trend of social wealth allocation to the stock market is emerging. Continuous capital inflow is the medium - and long - term driving force for the upward movement of the stock index [5]

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report [1][3][4] Group 2: Report's Core Views - Gold is expected to be strong in the long - term, with short - term and medium - term upward trends and an intraday view of being oscillatingly strong. The driving factors include global monetary policy shifts, geopolitical risk, and structural demand changes [1][3] - Copper is also considered strong in the long - term, with short - term and medium - term upward trends and an intraday view of rising. Although it has experienced short - term fluctuations, it is expected to remain relatively strong [1][4] Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Performance**: International gold prices have been rising, with New York gold approaching $4200 and Shanghai gold approaching 960 yuan [3] - **Driving Factors**: Global monetary policy shift (especially market expectations of Fed rate cuts), geopolitical risks (Sino - US trade friction, Ukraine crisis, US government debt concerns), and structural demand changes (central bank gold purchases and high enthusiasm of institutional and individual investors) [3] - **Short - term Outlook**: Sino - US trade friction accelerates price increase, gold may be stronger than silver, and the gold - silver ratio may rise. Use the 5 - day moving average as the short - term strength dividing line [3] Copper - **Price Performance**: The copper price dropped by over 2000 yuan/ton in the afternoon yesterday and rebounded at night [4] - **Driving Factors**: Short - term fluctuations are mainly due to Sino - US tariff news and strong willingness of short - term long - position holders to close positions at high prices. After the market digests trade disturbances, copper is in a context of macro - easing and demand contraction [4] - **Short - term Outlook**: Expected to remain relatively strong, pay attention to the technical pressure at the post - holiday high. If gold and silver weaken, copper prices may decline [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - The global economic growth is expected to be 3.2% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026, with potential impacts from tariff shocks and supply - demand imbalances in various industries [19]. - The A - share and Hong Kong stock markets have experienced recent adjustments, but the long - term trend of the Hong Kong stock market remains positive, and the overall risk of A - share margin trading is controllable [32][33]. - The bond market has different outlooks in the short and medium - term, with various factors affecting the performance of different bond types [22][28]. - The commodity market shows diverse trends, such as rising precious metal prices, complex situations in the coal - coke - steel - ore and energy - chemical sectors, and changes in agricultural product trade volumes [5][9][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data - GDP growth in Q2 2025 was 5.2% year - on - year, slightly lower than the previous quarter [1]. - Manufacturing PMI in September 2025 was 49.8%, up from the previous month, while non - manufacturing PMI was 50.0%, down from the previous month [1]. - In August 2025, M1 and M2 growth rates were 6.0% and 8.8% year - on - year respectively, with M1 growth accelerating [1]. - In September 2025, export and import values increased by 8.3% and 7.4% year - on - year respectively [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment - The National Development and Reform Commission will support energy - saving and carbon - reduction projects in key industries [2]. - From January to September 2025, the national futures market volume and turnover increased by 18.29% and 24.11% year - on - year respectively, but decreased in September [2]. - The Fed may stop shrinking its balance sheet and is expected to cut interest rates, with different views on the number of rate cuts [3][4]. 3.3 Main Commodity Highlights - **Metals**: Shandong Gold's net profit in the first three quarters of 2025 is expected to increase by 83.9% - 98.5% year - on - year, and gold and silver prices have risen [5][6]. - **Coal - Coke - Steel - Ore**: In early October 2025, steel production showed different trends, and global steel demand is expected to be flat in 2025 and rebound slightly in 2026 [9]. - **Energy - Chemical**: Oil prices are under pressure due to supply - demand imbalances, and there may be a policy to regulate photovoltaic capacity [10]. - **Agricultural Products**: China's grain projects are progressing, and there are changes in the import and export volumes of grains in different countries [12]. 3.4 Financial News - **Open Market**: The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, and is expected to conduct a 6 - month term reverse repurchase operation on October 15 [15]. - **Important News**: The Chinese government emphasizes economic stability, and there are various policy adjustments and economic data changes at home and abroad [16][18]. - **Bond Market**: Bond market performance is diverse, with different trends in different bond types and regions [22]. - **Foreign Exchange Market**: The on - shore and offshore RMB exchange rates have changed, and the US dollar index has declined [27]. - **Research Reports**: Different research institutions have different outlooks on the bond and convertible bond markets [28]. 3.5 Stock Market - A - shares and Hong Kong stocks have recently adjusted, with A - share trading volume reaching 2.6 trillion yuan, and the Hong Kong stock market has been falling for 7 days [32]. - A - share margin trading scale has reached a new high, and some brokers have adjusted margin ratios, while the overall risk is controllable [32]. - Southbound funds have driven the Hong Kong stock market, and although there is short - term adjustment, the long - term trend is positive [33].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report is a daily arbitrage data report of Baocheng Futures on October 15, 2025, presenting the basis, inter - period, and inter - variety data of various commodities including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures [1][5][18][25][38][49]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Power Coal - The basis data of power coal from September 30, 2025, to October 14, 2025, is presented, with the basis on October 14 being - 81.4 yuan/ton, showing an increasing trend compared to previous days [2]. Energy Chemicals Energy Commodities - The basis data of fuel oil, INE crude oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt from September 30, 2025, to October 14, 2025, are provided. For example, the basis of INE crude oil on October 14 was 2.52 yuan/ton [7]. Chemical Commodities - **Basis**: The basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, and PP from September 30, 2025, to October 14, 2025, are shown. For instance, the basis of rubber on October 14 was - 595 yuan/ton [9]. - **Inter - period**: The inter - period data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are presented. For example, the 5 - month minus 1 - month inter - period of rubber was - 10 yuan/ton [10]. - **Inter - variety**: The inter - variety data of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol from September 30, 2025, to October 14, 2025, are given. For example, the LLDPE - PVC value on October 14 was 2252 yuan/ton [10]. Black Metals - **Basis**: The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from September 30, 2025, to October 14, 2025, are provided. For example, the basis of rebar on October 14 was 139.0 yuan/ton [18]. - **Inter - period**: The inter - period data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are presented. For example, the 5 - month minus 1 - month inter - period of rebar was 56.0 yuan/ton [19]. - **Inter - variety**: The inter - variety data of rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot - rolled coil from September 30, 2025, to October 14, 2025, are given. For example, the rebar/iron ore ratio on October 14 was 3.88 [19]. Non - Ferrous Metals Domestic Market - The domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from September 30, 2025, to October 14, 2025, are presented. For example, the basis of copper on October 14 was 1450 yuan/ton [29]. London Market - The LME premium/discount, Shanghai - London ratio, CIF, domestic spot price, and import profit/loss data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on October 14, 2025, are provided. For example, the LME premium/discount of copper was 54.87 [34]. Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, corn from September 30, 2025, to October 14, 2025, are shown. For example, the basis of soybeans No.1 on October 14 was 7 yuan/ton [39]. - **Inter - period**: The inter - period data of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, corn, sugar, and cotton are presented. For example, the 5 - month minus 1 - month inter - period of soybeans No.1 was 42 yuan/ton [39]. - **Inter - variety**: The inter - variety data of soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, soybean meal - rapeseed meal, soybean oil - palm oil, rapeseed oil - soybean oil, and corn - corn starch from September 30, 2025, to October 14, 2025, are given. For example, the soybeans No.1/corn ratio on October 14 was 1.90 [39]. Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from September 30, 2025, to October 14, 2025, are provided. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on October 14 was 31.86 [50]. - **Inter - period**: The inter - period data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 (next month - current month, next quarter - current quarter) are presented. For example, the next month - current month inter - period of CSI 300 was - 17.6 [50].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On October 14, 2025, all stock indices fluctuated downward, with significant declines in the CSI 1000 and CSI 500. The total trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2596.6 billion yuan, an increase of 222.4 billion yuan from the previous day [3]. - Due to the resurgence of the tariff war and the approaching external uncertainties before November, combined with the current relatively high valuation level, investors' willingness to take profits has increased, leading to a correction in the stock indices [3]. - Trump's tariff threats have a short - term impact on the A - share market, with a weaker marginal effect than in early April this year, and the impact is relatively limited [3]. - There are still issues of insufficient effective domestic demand, and external tariff factors continue to cause disturbances. However, there are strong expectations for policy support to stabilize the macro - fundamentals, which provides strong support for the stock indices [3]. - The investment attribute of A - shares is valued by the policy, and there is a trend of social wealth flowing into the stock market. Continuous capital inflows will be a long - term driving force for the upward movement of the stock indices [3]. - In the short term, the stock indices are expected to fluctuate widely. Currently, the implied volatility of options remains at a low level. Considering the long - term upward trend of the stock indices, investors can continue to hold bull spreads or covered calls [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Option Indicators - On October 14, 2025, the 50ETF fell 0.03% to 3.100; the 300ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) fell 1.00% to 4.645; the 300ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) fell 1.09% to 4.791; the CSI 300 Index fell 1.20% to 4539.06; the CSI 1000 Index fell 1.95% to 7373.15; the 500ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) fell 2.41% to 7.289; the 500ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) fell 2.25% to 2.916; the GEM ETF fell 3.93% to 2.934; the Shenzhen 100ETF fell 2.54% to 3.413; the SSE 50 Index fell 0.21% to 2961.10; the STAR 50ETF fell 4.20% to 1.48; and the E Fund STAR 50ETF fell 4.10% to 1.45 [5]. - The trading volume PCR and open interest PCR of various options on October 14, 2025, and their changes compared with the previous trading day are provided in detail, including those of the SSE 50ETF options, SSE 300ETF options, etc [6]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money options in October or November 2025 and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying assets for various options are presented, such as the SSE 50ETF options with an implied volatility of 17.33% and a 30 - trading - day historical volatility of 15.11% [7]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - **SSE 50ETF Options**: Include charts of the SSE 50ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [9]. - **SSE 300ETF Options**: Include charts of the SSE 300ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [20]. - **SZSE 300ETF Options**: Include charts of the SZSE 300ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [32]. - **CSI 300 Index Options**: Include charts of the CSI 300 index trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [44]. - **CSI 1000 Index Options**: Include charts of the CSI 1000 index trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [57]. - **SSE 500ETF Options**: Include charts of the SSE 500ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [71]. - **SZSE 500ETF Options**: Include charts of the SZSE 500ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [84]. - **GEM ETF Options**: Include charts of the GEM ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [98]. - **Shenzhen 100ETF Options**: Include charts of the Shenzhen 100ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [111]. - **SSE 50 Index Options**: Include charts of the SSE 50 index trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [124]. - **STAR 50ETF Options**: Include charts of the STAR 50ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [138]. - **E Fund STAR 50ETF Options**: Include charts of the E Fund STAR 50ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [145].

Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, fluctuating weakly, and slightly closing lower on Tuesday. The price center of the contract moved down to around 14,850 yuan/ton during the session, and closed 0.97% lower at 14,845 yuan/ton. The premium of the 1 - 5 month spread converged to 15 yuan/ton. With the rubber market returning to a market dominated by a weak supply - demand structure and weak macro - expectations, the contract is expected to maintain a weakly fluctuating trend in the future [5]. - The domestic methanol futures 2601 contract showed a trend of shrinking volume, increasing positions, weakening, and significantly closing lower on Tuesday. The contract price rose to a maximum of 2,345 yuan/ton and dropped to a minimum of 2,255 yuan/ton, closing 2.61% lower at 2,274 yuan/ton. The discount of the 1 - 5 month spread converged to 26 yuan/ton. Suppressed by the weak supply - demand fundamentals of methanol, the contract is expected to maintain a weakly fluctuating trend in the future [5]. - The domestic crude oil futures 2512 contract showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, fluctuating weakly, and slightly closing lower on Tuesday. The contract price rose to a maximum of 456.1 yuan/barrel and dropped to a minimum of 447.6 yuan/barrel, closing 0.90% lower at 449.6 yuan/barrel. Due to the continuous shutdown of the US federal government, Trump's resumption of the trade tariff war, the occurrence of systematic risks, the continued production increase of OPEC + oil - producing countries, and the possible end of the Israel - Palestine conflict in the Middle East leading to the return of geopolitical premiums, the contract is expected to maintain a weakly fluctuating trend in the future [6]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of October 12, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 456,000 tons, a decrease of 500 tons or 0.11% from the previous period. The bonded area inventory was 70,800 tons, an increase of 2.02%, and the general trade inventory was 385,200 tons, a decrease of 0.49%. The inbound rate of the bonded warehouse of the Qingdao natural rubber sample increased by 3.74 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.40 percentage points; the inbound rate of the general trade warehouse decreased by 4.11 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 4.91 percentage points [9]. - From October 3 - 9, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 42.15%, a decrease of 17.50 percentage points from the previous period (September 26 - October 2, 2025) and a decrease of 36.62 percentage points year - on - year. Some semi - steel tire sample enterprises arranged shutdown for maintenance during the holiday, dragging down the capacity utilization rate. The capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises was 41.53%, a decrease of 13.83 percentage points from the previous period and a decrease of 0.78 percentage points year - on - year. Some all - steel tire sample enterprises arranged shutdown for maintenance during the holiday, dragging down the capacity utilization rate [9]. - In September 2025, China's logistics industry prosperity index was 51.2%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. The new order index expanded steadily, with the new order index of logistics enterprises at 53.3%, an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous month, and it remained in the high - prosperity range of over 52% for four consecutive months [10]. - In September 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold 105,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 82% and a month - on - month increase of 15%, achieving six consecutive months of growth. From January to September 2025, the cumulative sales of the heavy - truck market were about 821,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 20%, laying a foundation for the annual total sales target of 1.1 million vehicles [10]. Methanol - As of the week of October 10, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 80.38%, a week - on - week increase of 0.87%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.82%, and a slight decrease of 1.39% compared with the same period last year. The average weekly methanol output in China reached 2.033 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 160,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 113,700 tons, and a significant increase of 156,200 tons compared with 1.8768 million tons in the same period last year [11]. - As of the week of October 10, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 30.98%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.43%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was 8.20%, a week - on - week increase of 0.01%. The acetic acid operating rate was 81.65%, a week - on - week increase of 5.03%. The MTBE operating rate was 57.89%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.46%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 87.97%, a week - on - week increase of 4.94 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 8.42% [11]. - As of October 10, 2025, the domestic methanol - to - olefin futures market profit was - 146 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 14 yuan/ton and a month - on - month decrease of 127 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week of October 10, 2025, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was 1.273 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 4,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5,700 tons, and a significant increase of 369,900 tons compared with the same period last year. As of the week of September 25, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory in China was 320,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 20,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13,500 tons, and a significant decrease of 116,900 tons compared with 436,900 tons in the same period last year [12][13]. Crude Oil - As of the week of October 3, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 422, a week - on - week decrease of 2 and a decrease of 57 compared with the same period last year. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.629 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 124,000 barrels per day and a significant increase of 429,000 barrels per day year - on - year [13]. - As of the week of October 3, 2025, the commercial crude oil inventory in the United States (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 420.3 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 3.715 million barrels and a slight decrease of 2.48 million barrels compared with the same period last year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 22.704 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 763,000 barrels. The strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory was 407 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 285,000 barrels. The US refinery operating rate was 92.4%, a week - on - week increase of 1.0 percentage point, a month - on - month decrease of 2.5 percentage points, and a slight increase of 5.7 percentage points year - on - year [13]. - Since October 2025, international crude oil futures prices have shown a downward trend under pressure, and the bullish power in the market has continued to shrink. Due to the US government shutdown, the release of government department data was postponed. As of September 23, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 102,958 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 4,249 contracts and a significant decrease of 19,105 contracts or 15.65% compared with the average in August. As of October 10, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 141,656 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 60,824 contracts and a significant decrease of 74,699 contracts or 34.53% compared with the average in September [14]. 2. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from the Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from the Previous Day | Basis | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,250 yuan/ton | - 300 yuan/ton | 14,845 yuan/ton | - 95 yuan/ton | - 595 yuan/ton | + 95 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,300 yuan/ton | - 22 yuan/ton | 2,274 yuan/ton | - 68 yuan/ton | + 26 yuan/ton | + 46 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 430.4 yuan/barrel | + 0.1 yuan/barrel | 449.6 yuan/barrel | - 5.4 yuan/barrel | - 19.2 yuan/barrel | + 5.5 yuan/barrel | [16] 3. Related Charts - The report mentions related charts for rubber (such as rubber basis, 1 - 5 month spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, semi - steel tire operating rate trend), methanol (such as methanol basis, 1 - 5 month spread, domestic port inventory, inland social inventory, methanol - to - olefin operating rate change, coal - to - methanol cost accounting), and crude oil (such as crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US commercial crude oil inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, Brent crude oil net position change), but no specific chart analysis content is provided [17][19][21]

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