Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Report's Core View The report predicts that the domestic methanol futures 2509 contract will maintain a weak - oscillating trend. The weakening of geopolitical factors is the main reason for this view. After the US - Iran conflict shows signs of easing, the methanol futures 2509 contract closed slightly lower by 1.71% to 2469 yuan/ton on the night session of Monday last week, and it is expected to continue this trend on Tuesday [1][5]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Price Analysis - In the short - term (within a week), the methanol 2509 contract is expected to oscillate; in the medium - term (two weeks to one month), it will also oscillate; and on an intraday basis, it will oscillate weakly and run in a weak manner [1]. Driving Logic - Geopolitical factors have weakened. After Trump's comments and Iran's equivalent retaliatory actions without blocking the Strait of Hormuz, the methanol futures 2509 contract closed slightly lower on the night session of Monday last week, and is expected to maintain a weak - oscillating trend on Tuesday [5]. Market Definition - For varieties with night trading, the starting price is the night - session closing price, and for those without, it is the previous day's closing price. The ending price is the day - session closing price of the current day to calculate the price change [2]. - A decline of more than 1% is considered a fall, a decline of 0 - 1% is a weak oscillation, an increase of 0 - 1% is a strong oscillation, and an increase of more than 1% is a rise. The concepts of strong/weak oscillation only apply to intraday views [3][4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of crude oil 2508 is sideways, the medium - term view is sideways, and the intraday view is sideways to the downside, with an overall outlook of weakening. The weakening geopolitical factors lead to the decline of the premium of crude oil [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Market Performance - On Monday night, domestic and international crude oil futures prices dropped significantly. The domestic crude oil futures 2508 contract fell 5.65% to 537.7 yuan/barrel [5] Core Logic - US President Trump's comments and Iran's non - blockade of the Strait of Hormuz made investors adjust their expectations, believing that the impact of Middle East geopolitical factors on oil prices will not intensify, and the geopolitical premium will decline further [5] Outlook - Against the backdrop of weakening geopolitical factors, it is expected that the domestic crude oil futures 2508 contract may maintain a sideways - to - weak trend on Tuesday [5]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 宝城期货品种套利数据日报（2025 年 6 月 24 日） 一、动力煤 | 商品 | | | 动力煤（元/吨） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 基差 | 5月-1月 | 9月-1月 | 9月-5月 | | 2025/06/23 | -192.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/06/20 | -192.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/06/19 | -192.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/06/18 | -192.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/06/17 | -192.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 450 500 550 600 650 700 750 800 850 900 950 动力煤基差 基差（右） 动力煤现货价:秦皇岛 期货结算价(活跃合约) :动力煤 www.bcqhgs.com 1 杭州市求 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 6 月 24 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 供应居高不下，矿价承压运行 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需格局迎来变化，淡季钢厂提产，矿石终端消耗迎来回升，需求韧性表现尚可，给予矿 价支撑，但钢市难以承接大幅提产，增量空间受限。同时，港口到货和矿商发运均大幅回升，双双升 至年内高位，多因财年末矿商冲量积极所致，而内矿供应也在恢复，矿石供应维持高位。目前来看， 得益于矿石 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货动力煤早报（2025 年 6 月 24 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：动力煤现货 日内观点： 中期观点： 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：随着迎峰度夏旺季到来，动力煤需求支撑显现，北港库存快速去化，前期"电煤需求 疲弱""产业链库存充足"这两大制约煤价的主要利空因素得到阶段性缓解，带动煤价止跌。但 国内产量仍维持较高水平，供应压力仍存，使得煤价也并未迎来大幅上涨。现阶段，煤炭市场多 空博弈激烈，煤价在低位暂稳运行。根据国家气候中心预测，今年 7 月国内大部地区气温接近常 年同期到偏高，迎峰度夏制冷需求有支撑。此外，7 月预计会有 2~3 个台风影响我国，降水则呈 现"北多南少"特征 ...

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of rebar 2510 are shock, shock, and shock - weak respectively. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the supply - demand pattern is weakly stable, and steel prices will continue to fluctuate [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content Market Driving Logic - The fundamentals of rebar continue the seasonal weakness. Construction steel mills have resumed production, and the weekly output of rebar has increased, but the increase is limited and still at a relatively low level. The supply side is operating stably [3]. - Rebar demand shows a seasonal decline. The weekly apparent demand has decreased slightly month - on - month, and high - frequency transactions are relatively sluggish. Weak demand will continue to suppress steel prices [3]. - Currently, rebar supply is increasing while demand is seasonally weak. Under the situation of increasing supply and weak demand, the fundamentals remain weakly stable, and steel prices are still under pressure. The relatively good news is that inventory is at a low level, and the real - world contradictions are limited. It is expected that steel prices will maintain a low - level shock operation. Attention should be paid to changes on the supply side [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Domestic arrivals at 47 ports reached 27.729 million tons, a significant rebound to a year - high, mainly due to increased arrivals of Brazilian ore [2]. - Overseas ore shipments rebounded again, with the total shipments from 19 global ports reaching 35.067 million tons, climbing to a high level. The shipments of major miners were active [2]. - Based on shipping schedules, the arrivals of Australian and Brazilian ore at domestic ports are expected to remain stable at a high level, and overseas ore supply will remain high [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Ore Arrival and Shipment Data - **Arrival Volume** - Northern six - port arrivals were 11.536 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 654,000 tons (-5.37%) but a month - on - month increase of 947,000 tons (8.94%) [3]. - National 45 - port arrivals were 25.627 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.782 million tons (7.47%) and a month - on - month increase of 4.114 million tons (19.12%) [3]. - National 47 - port arrivals were 27.729 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.554 million tons (10.14%) and a month - on - month increase of 4.288 million tons (18.29%) [3]. - National 47 - port Australian ore arrivals were 18.245 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 191,000 tons (1.06%) and a month - on - month increase of 1.995 million tons (12.28%) [3]. - National 47 - port Brazilian ore arrivals were 6.732 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.803 million tons (71.34%) and a month - on - month increase of 1.993 million tons (42.06%) [3]. - National 47 - port other ore arrivals were 2.752 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 440,000 tons (-13.78%) but a month - on - month increase of 300,000 tons (12.23%) [3]. - **Shipment Volume** - Australian shipments (original caliber) were 18.84 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 785,000 tons (4.35%) and a month - on - month increase of 1.129 million tons (6.37%) [3]. - Shipments to China from Australia were 16.131 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 108,000 tons (-0.67%) but a month - on - month increase of 704,000 tons (4.56%) [3]. - Brazilian shipments (original caliber) were 8.584 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.865 million tons (27.76%) and a month - on - month increase of 1.328 million tons (18.30%) [3]. - Global 19 - port shipments were 35.067 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.54 million tons (4.59%) and a month - on - month increase of 3.18 million tons (9.97%) [3]. - Australian shipments from 19 global ports were 20.681 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 745,000 tons (3.74%) and a month - on - month increase of 549,000 tons (2.73%) [3]. - Brazilian shipments from 19 global ports were 9.417 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.691 million tons (21.89%) and a month - on - month increase of 1.649 million tons (21.23%) [3]. - Other shipments from 19 global ports were 4.969 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 896,000 tons (-15.28%) but a month - on - month increase of 982,000 tons (24.63%) [3]. - VALE shipments were 7.191 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.4865 million tons (26.06%) and a month - on - month increase of 1.1524 million tons (19.08%) [3]. - RIO shipments were 6.679 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 222,500 tons (-3.22%) and a month - on - month decrease of 60,500 tons (-0.90%) [3]. - Shipments to China from RIO were 5.328 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 373,000 tons (-6.54%) and a month - on - month decrease of 346,000 tons (-6.10%) [3]. - BHP shipments were 6.665 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 923,500 tons (16.08%) and a month - on - month increase of 354,900 tons (5.62%) [3]. - Shipments to China from BHP were 6.329 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.147 million tons (22.13%) and a month - on - month increase of 753,000 tons (13.50%) [3]. - FMG shipments were 4.53 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 50,600 tons (-1.10%) but a month - on - month increase of 493,200 tons (12.22%) [3]. - Shipments to China from FMG were 3.764 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 817,000 tons (-17.83%) but a month - on - month increase of 153,000 tons (4.24%) [3]. 3.2. Related Charts - Domestic port arrival volume [5] - Global 19 - port shipment volume [7] - Four major miners' shipment volume [8] - Estimated domestic arrival volume of iron ore [12]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The soybean meal market shows an intraday view of being weakly volatile and a medium - term view of being strongly - trending. The core logic is that favorable rainfall in US soybean - producing areas has improved the weather outlook, causing US soybean futures prices to fluctuate weakly. The domestic soybean market's trading logic remains unchanged, and the room for further decline is limited after giving back some weather - risk premiums following the US soybean futures prices [5]. - The palm oil market has an intraday view of being weakly volatile and a medium - term view of being strongly - trending. The core logic is that with the sharp drop in international oil prices, the energy spill - over support for the oil and fat market has weakened. The palm oil market is a short - term game between increasing production and strong demand, and strong export demand helps offset some inventory pressure. The domestic palm oil market lacks its own drivers and follows other oils and the international palm oil futures prices [6][8]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Meal (M) - **Time - frame Views**: Short - term (within a week) is strongly - trending, medium - term (two weeks to a month) is strongly - trending, and intraday is weakly volatile. The reference view is weakly volatile. - **Core Logic**: Import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil refinery operation rhythm, and stocking demand [7]. Soybean Oil (2509) - **Time - frame Views**: Short - term is strongly - trending, medium - term is strongly - trending, and intraday is weakly volatile. The reference view is weakly volatile. - **Core Logic**: US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventory [7]. Palm Oil (2509) - **Time - frame Views**: Short - term is strongly - trending, medium - term is strongly - trending, and intraday is weakly volatile. The reference view is weakly volatile. - **Core Logic**: Biodiesel attributes, Malaysian palm oil production and exports, Indonesian exports, tariff policies of major producing countries, domestic arrivals and inventory, and substitution demand [7].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term trend of the stock index is mainly range - bound, with an upward mid - term trend and a slightly stronger intraday trend. The policy - side positive expectations provide strong support, but the short - term policy driving force is insufficient [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2509, the short - term view is "oscillation", the mid - term view is "rise", the intraday view is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", and the reference view is "range - bound oscillation". The core logic is that the positive policy expectations provide strong support [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include IF, IH, IC, and IM. The intraday view is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", the mid - term view is "rise", and the reference view is "range - bound oscillation". The core logic is that the domestic macro - economic indicators have weakened marginally recently, and the weak performance of credit and inflation data indicates that there is still downward pressure on domestic demand. More policies to support demand are needed, so the expectation of policy benefits has increased. However, there is no clear policy signal in the short term, and the incremental policy signals are expected to come out after the Politburo meeting in July. Although the market sentiment has recovered, the short - term policy driving force is insufficient. Attention should be paid to the overseas uncertainties such as the Middle East situation and the Sino - US tariff war [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - The report provides short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on gold and nickel futures, with corresponding core logics [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Gold - **View**: Short - term: decline; Medium - term: oscillation; Intraday: decline; Overall: short - term bearish [1][3]. - **Core Logic**: Geopolitical conflicts have eased as the US President Trump announced on June 23 that Israel and Iran had agreed to a full cease - fire, leading to a rise in market risk appetite and downward pressure on gold prices. Attention should be paid to the support of the 60 - day moving average of Shanghai gold [3]. Nickel - **View**: Short - term: rise; Medium - term: oscillation; Intraday: rise; Overall: short - term bullish [1][5]. - **Core Logic**: After the cease - fire between Iran and Israel, geopolitical conflicts have eased, and market risk appetite has increased. Although nickel's fundamentals were weak last week, short - term macroeconomic improvement may lead to a rebound in non - ferrous metals and a bottom - up recovery of nickel prices [5].