投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 6 月 24 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 下跌 | 震荡思路 | 地缘因素扰动，焦煤或将承压 | | 焦炭 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 下跌 | 震荡思路 | 现货四轮降价，焦炭低位震荡 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：下跌 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡思路 核心逻辑：安全月活动期间，安监、环保、以及经营压力导致国内焦煤产量出现一 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content in the provided report Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and overall view of TL2509 is "oscillation", with an intraday view of "oscillation on the strong side". The core logic is that macroeconomic indicators are weak and the expectation of monetary easing is rising [1]. - For the TL, T, TF, and TS varieties, the intraday view is "oscillation on the strong side", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the overall reference view is "oscillation". The market has a strong expectation of medium - to - long - term interest rate cuts due to weakening macroeconomic indicators and the Fed's expected rate cuts. However, the short - term expectation of further rate cuts is weak, so the short - term is expected to maintain an oscillating consolidation [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2509 variety, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "oscillation on the strong side", and the overall view is "oscillation". The core logic is the weak macroeconomic indicators and the increasing expectation of monetary easing [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, and TS. The intraday view is "oscillation on the strong side", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation". Yesterday, treasury bond futures oscillated in a narrow range. There is a strong expectation of medium - to - long - term interest rate cuts because of weakening macroeconomic indicators and the Fed's expected rate cuts. But the short - term expectation of further rate cuts is weak as the effect of the May rate cut needs to be tested and the second - half macro - policies await the guidance of the July Politburo meeting. So, the short - term is expected to be in oscillating consolidation [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: Today, copper prices showed a weak oscillation, rising in the afternoon and then falling back. Despite the tense Middle - East situation, it didn't significantly impact domestic risk appetite. On June 23, Mysteel's electrolytic copper social inventory was 131,900 tons, a decrease of 10,500 tons from last week. After the price decline last week, the industry's replenishment willingness increased, and the 7 - 8 month spread strengthened. Overseas, the premium of LME copper has been strengthening, indicating a shortage of overseas electrolytic copper. If the Middle - East situation doesn't escalate, copper prices are expected to stabilize and rise [5]. - **Aluminum**: In the morning, aluminum prices rose and then fell back, continuing to rise during the day. The weakening of the 7 - 8 month spread last week indicates a weakening industrial support. On June 23, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum inventory was 462,000 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons from last week. The recent price fluctuations with increasing positions may suggest an increase in the hedging willingness of upstream electrolytic aluminum plants. Technically, the main futures price broke below the 5 - day moving average, and attention should be paid to the long - short game at the 10 - day moving average [6]. - **Nickel**: Today, nickel prices decreased with increasing positions, and the main futures price once fell below 117,000. Short - term macro conditions have turned cold, and nickel's fundamentals are weak. Upstream, nickel mines in the Philippines and Indonesia remain strong; downstream, stainless steel is weak, and nickel sulfate is stable. It is expected that nickel prices will continue to decline, and attention should be paid to the support at the low point in early April [7]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On June 23, Mysteel's electrolytic copper social inventory was 131,900 tons, a decrease of 17,400 tons from June 19 and 10,500 tons from June 16. Recently, 188 tons of copper from the Democratic Republic of the Congo passed customs at Ningbo Customs and entered production at Jin Tian Copper Industry. Jin Tian Copper Industry's output value in 2024 exceeded 120 billion yuan, a 12.4% increase. From January to May this year, Ningbo's copper imports from Africa were worth 9.02 billion yuan, an increase of 78.8% [9]. - **Aluminum**: On June 23, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum inventory was 462,000 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons from last week and 12,000 tons from June 19 [6][10]. - **Nickel**: On June 23, the mainstream reference contract for refined nickel in the Shanghai market was the SHFE Nickel 2507 contract. The mainstream premiums and discounts were as follows: Jinchuan electrolytic nickel +2,600 - +2,900 yuan/ton, Russian nickel +500 - +700 yuan/ton, nickel beans - 1,000 - - 800 yuan/ton, Bofeng nickel - 50 - +50 yuan/ton, Sumitomo nickel +2,400 - +2,500 yuan/ton, and Norwegian nickel +2,700 - +2,800 yuan/ton [11]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - **Copper**: The report includes charts of copper basis, domestic visible inventory (social inventory + bonded area inventory), LME copper注销仓单比例, month spread, overseas copper exchange inventory, and SHFE warehouse receipt inventory [12][14][15]. - **Aluminum**: The report contains charts of aluminum basis, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina trend, month spread, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), and alumina inventory [26][28][30]. - **Nickel**: The report presents charts of nickel basis, LME inventory, LME nickel trend, month spread, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [38][40][42].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 黑色金属 | 日报 2025 年 6 月 23 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 地缘因素扰动，煤焦偏强运行 核心观点 焦炭：6 月 23 日，焦炭主力合约报收于 1385.0 元/吨，日内录得 0.22%的 跌幅。截至收盘，主力合约持仓量为 5.06 万手，较前一交易日仓差为- 1363 手。现货市场方面，23 日焦炭第四轮提降 50/55 元落地，下游压价 情绪仍存，焦炭价格继续走低。期货市场方面，随着利多因素逐渐累积， 原先普遍悲观的市场情绪迎来转变，部分空单止盈离场，市场多空博弈加 剧，带动焦炭期货低位宽幅震荡。展望后市，从 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 专业研究·创造价值 2025 年 6 月 23 日 铜铝周报 中东局势紧张，市场风险偏好下降 核心观点 铜：市场风险偏好下降，铜价承压，关注前期价格中枢支撑 铝：国内宏观回暖，铝价延续强势 上周铝价冲高回落，在有色板块中表现强势。我们认为国内宏观 氛围回暖很大程度上推升了铝价。铝价受国际宏观影响相对较小，而 国内宏观氛围较好，产业需求也较好，电解铝库存持续去化使其维持 强势运行。随着铝价上行，月差回落，产业推动意愿下降。关注 10 日均线支撑。此外，铸造铝合金上市交易，短期铝的资金关注度上 市。目前主力期价已突破 5 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - On June 13, the US-Iran nuclear negotiation was hopeless, Israel attacked Iran, and the Middle East turmoil escalated with a sharp rise in crude oil prices. After 10 days, oil price growth weakened and gold price first soared then declined, indicating market optimism about the Middle East situation. On June 22, US military planes bombed three Iranian nuclear facilities, and Iran vowed to retaliate, which may boost gold prices. In the long run, gold prices have been oscillating at a high level since the second quarter, facing significant upward pressure. If the Middle East situation is under control, gold prices may remain under pressure in the third quarter due to the increased market risk appetite after the relaxation of US tariff policies [3][26] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review 1.1 Weekly Trend - The report includes a chart of the linkage between the US dollar index and COMEX gold futures closing price, but no specific trend description is provided [7] 1.2 Indicator Price Changes - From June 13 to June 20, COMEX gold decreased by 1.98% from 3,452.60 to 3,384.40; COMEX silver decreased by 1.15% from 36.37 to 35.95; SHFE gold主力 decreased by 1.99% from 794.36 to 778.58; SHFE silver主力 decreased by 1.44% from 8,791.00 to 8,664.00; the US dollar index increased by 0.63% from 98.15 to 98.76; the US dollar against the offshore RMB decreased by 0.14% from 7.19 to 7.18; the 10-year US Treasury real yield decreased by 0.08 from 2.13 to 2.05; the S&P 500 decreased by 0.15% from 5,976.97 to 5,967.84; the US crude oil continuous increased by 2.49% from 73.18 to 75.00; the COMEX gold-silver ratio decreased by 0.83% from 94.93 to 94.14; the SHFE gold-silver ratio decreased by 0.55% from 90.36 to 89.86; the SPDR gold ETF increased by 9.75 from 940.49 to 950.24; the iShare gold ETF increased by 1.76 from 436.00 to 437.76 [8] 2. Gold Price Soars and Then Declines - Last week, the gold price soared and then declined, while the US dollar index bottomed out and rebounded, crude oil showed weak upward momentum, and the three major US stock indexes did not have significant declines, indicating market optimism about the Middle East situation. Over the weekend, the Middle East situation heated up, which is beneficial to the gold price. On June 22, US military planes bombed three Iranian nuclear facilities, and on the day after the Fed's June interest rate meeting, Fed Governor Waller said that the Fed should cut interest rates as early as July [10] 3. Tracking of Other Indicators - Since late May, the net long non-commercial positions on COMEX have been rising. As of June 10, compared with the previous week, long positions decreased by 987, short positions decreased by 563, and net long positions decreased by 424. This indicator is more sensitive to precious metal price trends than gold ETFs but has a lower update frequency and poor timeliness [15] - Since late May, gold ETFs have started to rise, and silver ETFs have risen significantly. In early June, silver prices rose sharply with obvious ETF position increases, showing a combination of price and volume increases. Silver broke through the May 2024 high, and short-term capital attention has rapidly increased, expected to remain strong [17] - Since late April, the gold price soared and then declined, and the gold-silver ratio also declined from a high level. Silver benefited from its precious metal attribute and had a short-term supplementary increase. It broke through the one-year oscillation high, and short-term capital attention increased with strong upward momentum. The gold-silver ratio is expected to continue to be weak [20] - Since June, the spread between the 10-year and 2-year US Treasury yields has decreased slightly overall [22] 4. Conclusion - The analysis is consistent with the core viewpoints, emphasizing that the recent Middle East situation changes may boost gold prices, but in the long run, gold prices face upward pressure and may remain under pressure in the third quarter if the Middle East situation is controllable [3][26]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Rebar**: The main contract price fluctuates. Supply is rising while demand remains seasonally weak, keeping steel prices under pressure. However, low inventory eases immediate contradictions. Short - term, it will likely stay in low - level oscillations. Monitor steel mill production [4][38]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The main contract price also fluctuates. Supply is at a high level, and although demand shows some improvement, its sustainability is uncertain. It will likely continue to oscillate at a low level, with demand being the key factor to watch [4][38]. - **Iron ore**: The main contract price is strongly oscillating. Demand has improved slightly, but supply is high, and the improvement in demand may not last. The price is expected to oscillate, with the performance of finished products being a key factor [4][39]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry Dynamics - **Power Industry**: From January to May, grid project investment reached 204 billion yuan, a 19.8% year - on - year increase. Total installed power generation capacity was 3.61 billion kilowatts, with solar and wind power showing significant growth [6]. - **Construction Industry**: The total new contract value of the top five construction central enterprises in the first five months exceeded 2.9 trillion yuan. China State Construction ranked first, with infrastructure business growing rapidly [7]. - **Iron Ore Mining**: Three new iron ore mining areas in Goa, India, were approved for operation, with different companies winning the mining rights and having various production capacities [8]. Spot Market - **Steel Products**: Rebar prices in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average, hot - rolled coil prices in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average, and prices of Tangshan billet and Zhangjiagang heavy scrap are presented, along with their price changes. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar is 130 yuan, and the spread between rebar and scrap is 940 yuan [9]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports, Tangshan iron concentrate, sea freight, SGX swaps, and the Platts Index are provided, along with their price changes [9]. Futures Market - **Rebar**: The closing price of the active contract is 2,995 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.03%. Trading volume decreased by 437,662 lots, and open interest decreased by 6,206 lots [13]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The closing price of the active contract is 3,112 yuan, with a daily decrease of 0.16%. Trading volume decreased by 184,500 lots, and open interest increased by 28,968 lots [13]. - **Iron ore**: The closing price of the active contract is 706.0 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.50%. Trading volume decreased by 137,710 lots, and open interest increased by 4,370 lots [13]. Relevant Charts - **Steel Inventory**: Charts show the weekly changes and total inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coil [15][16][18]. - **Iron Ore Inventory**: Charts present the inventory of 45 ports, 247 steel mills, and domestic mines, as well as their seasonal and monthly changes [20][25][27]. - **Steel Mill Production**: Charts display the blast furnace operation rate, capacity utilization rate, and profitability of 247 sample steel mills, as well as the operation rate of 87 independent electric furnaces and the profit - loss situation of 75 building material independent arc - furnace steel mills [30][33][35]. Market Outlook - **Rebar**: Supply is rising while demand is seasonally weak. Although inventory is low, steel prices will continue to face pressure and oscillate at a low level [38]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: Supply is high, and demand shows some improvement but its sustainability is uncertain. It will likely continue to oscillate at a low level [38]. - **Iron Ore**: Demand has improved slightly, but supply is high, and the improvement in demand may not last. The price is expected to oscillate [39].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - No clear core viewpoints are presented in the report. It mainly provides a comprehensive set of data on various futures products, including basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads. Summary by Directory 1. Power Coal - **Basis Data**: From June 16 to June 20, 2025, the basis of power coal was - 192.4 yuan/ton, and the spreads of 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month were all 0.0 yuan/ton [2] 2. Energy and Chemicals (1) Energy Commodities - **Basis Charts**: There are basis charts for crude oil, fuel oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt. The basis of crude oil is related to the spot price of China Shengli and the futures closing price of INE crude oil; the basis of fuel oil is related to the FOB Singapore spot price and the futures closing price of fuel oil [6][7][9] (2) Chemical Commodities - **Basis Data**: From June 16 to June 20, 2025, the basis data of various chemical products such as natural rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, etc. are provided. For example, on June 20, the basis of natural rubber was 50 yuan/ton, and that of methanol was 256 yuan/ton [10] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month for natural rubber, methanol, PTA, etc. are given. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of natural rubber was 30 yuan/ton [10] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads such as LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, etc. are presented. For example, on June 20, the LLDPE - PVC spread was 2536 yuan/ton [10] 3. Black Metals - **Basis Data**: From June 16 to June 20, 2025, the basis data of black metals including rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are provided. For example, on June 20, the basis of rebar was 78.0 yuan/ton [15] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of rebar (5 - 1 month, 10 - 1 month, 10 - 5 month), iron ore, coke, and coking coal (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) are given [15] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads such as rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, etc. are presented. For example, on June 20, the rebar/iron ore ratio was 4.26 [15] 4. Non - ferrous Metals (1) Domestic Market - **Basis Data**: From June 16 to June 20, 2025, the domestic basis data of non - ferrous metals including copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. are provided. For example, on June 20, the basis of copper was 500 yuan/ton [23] (2) London Market - **LME Data**: On June 20, 2025, the LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss data of copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. are given. For example, the LME spread of copper was 274.99 [30] 5. Agricultural Products - **Basis Data**: From June 16 to June 20, 2025, the basis data of agricultural products such as soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, etc. are provided. For example, on June 20, the basis of soybean No.1 was - 179 yuan/ton [40] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of various agricultural products such as soybean No.1, soybean No.2, soybean meal, etc. are given. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of soybean No.1 was 13 yuan/ton [38] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads such as soybean No.1/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, etc. are presented. For example, on June 20, the soybean No.1/corn ratio was 1.77 [38] 6. Stock Index Futures - **Basis Data**: From June 16 to June 20, 2025, the basis data of stock index futures including CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are provided. For example, on June 20, the basis of CSI 300 was 73.04 [48] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 for different periods (such as next month - current month, current quarter - current month, etc.) are given [48]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2025-06-23 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2508 | 上涨 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 强势运行 | 美伊冲突升级，原油强势运行 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 原油（SC） 日内观点：上涨 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：强势运行 核心逻辑：上周末，美国对伊朗核设施展开轰炸，揭开美伊战争序幕。伊朗誓言袭击美国在中东的 军事基地，地缘风险再度增强，导致能化商品溢价提升。同时美军三航母舰队开往中东，英法德等 国也派遣军力援助以色列，冲突存在进一步扩大的风险。近日伊朗议会得出结论，认为应关闭霍尔 木兹海峡，但最终决定权在伊朗最高国家安全委员会手中。除了原油运输受到潜在干扰外，地缘风 险增强所带来的溢价空间也在扩大。本周一早间国际油价大幅高开再创 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-06-23 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2509 | 上涨 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 强势运行 | 地缘因素增强，甲醇强势运行 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 甲醇（MA） 日内观点：上涨 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：强势运行 核心逻辑：上周末，美国对伊朗核设施展开轰炸，揭开美伊战争序幕。伊朗誓言袭击美国在中东的 军事基地，地缘风险再度增强，导致能化商品溢价提升。作为全球重要的甲醇生产与出口国，伊朗 是我国重要的甲醇进口来源国。目前 ...