Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall trend of the agricultural products futures market in the report shows that the short - term performance of soybean meal futures is stronger than that of oils and fats, and the short - term is in a volatile state. The oils and fats market is affected by multiple factors such as international oil prices and inventory, showing a relatively weak trend in the short - term [5][7]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Viewpoints**: The intraday view is weakly volatile, the medium - term view is strong, and the reference view is weakly volatile [5]. - **Core Logic**: As the geopolitical risk in the Middle East cools down and the weather is favorable for crop growth, the decline in the US soybean oil futures price drags down the US soybean futures price. The domestic soybean market follows the fluctuation rhythm of the US soybean futures price. With stable market funds, the short - term soybean meal futures price is stronger than that of oils and fats and runs in a volatile manner [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **Viewpoints**: The intraday view is weakly volatile, the medium - term view is strong, and the reference view is weakly volatile [7]. - **Core Logic**: The oils and fats market as a whole follows the decline of international oil prices. After returning to the fundamentals, the inventory of the three major oils shows an obvious increasing trend, and the inventory pressure appears. Domestic palm oil lacks its own driving force and follows the price fluctuations of other oils and international palm oil futures, running weakly in the short - term [7]. Other Related Information - **Time Cycle Definition**: Short - term refers to within one week, and medium - term refers to two weeks to one month. For soybean meal 2509, soybean oil 2509, and palm 2509, the short - term and medium - term views are strong, while the intraday view is weakly volatile. Different varieties are affected by different factors such as import arrival rhythm, US biofuel policy, and biodiesel attributes [6].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 6 月 25 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2510 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线压力 | 基本面季节性弱势，钢价承压运 行 | 说明： 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 螺纹钢供需格局弱势运行，建筑钢厂提产，螺纹钢产量再度回升，相对利好则是增幅不大，关 注持续性。不过，螺纹需求表现依然疲弱，周度表需环比微降，而高频成交延续低迷，淡季需求特 征明显。总之，螺纹钢供应小幅回升，而需求延续季节性弱势，供需格局并未好转，淡季钢价承压 运行，相对 ...

宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 6 月 25 日） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 关注 MA5 一线压力 | 供需格局迎变化，矿价延续震荡 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需格局有所变化，钢厂生产积极，矿石终端消耗再度回升，需求韧性表现尚可，给予矿 价支撑，但淡季增量空间受限，利好效应不强。相反，财年末矿商冲量积极，港口到货和矿商发运均 大幅回升，双双升至年内高位，相应的内矿供应也在恢复，矿石供应居高不下。综上，矿石需求韧性 表现尚可 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2025 年 6 月 24 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 市场情绪不佳，钢矿震荡走弱 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价震荡下行，录得 0.53%日跌幅，量仓扩大。现阶段， 螺纹钢供应回升，而需求季节性弱势，供增需弱局面下基本面延续弱 稳，钢价继续承压，相对利好则是库存低位，现实矛盾有限，多空均衡 局面下预计钢价维持低位震荡运行态势，关注供应端变化情况。 热轧卷板：主力期价偏弱震荡，录得 0.51%日跌幅，量增仓稳。目前来 看，热卷供需格局有说好转，但供应维持高位，且需求韧性存疑，基本 面改善持续性存疑，上行驱动不强，预计走势维持震荡运行态势，重点 关注需求情况。 铁矿石：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0.42%日跌幅，量增仓缩。现阶 段，得益于矿石需求回升，矿石基本面有所好转，但供应居高不下，而 需求改善空间有限，供需格局难有实质性好转，预计矿价延续震荡运行 态势，关注成材表现情况。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Views - The Shanghai rubber futures contract 2509 showed a trend of shrinking volume, increasing positions, weakening in a volatile manner, and a slight decline. With the full - scale tapping in Southeast Asian and domestic natural rubber producing areas, the consultation on zero - tariff for natural rubber imports between China and Thailand, and the decline in domestic downstream tire production, it is expected to maintain a weakening trend in a volatile manner [6]. - The domestic methanol futures contract 2509 showed a trend of increasing volume, reducing positions, weakening in a volatile manner, and a significant decline. Due to the temporary cease - fire agreement between Iran and Israel, the geopolitical risk in the Middle East subsided, and the premium of energy - chemical commodities was reversed. It is expected to maintain a weakening trend in a volatile manner [6]. - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2508 showed a trend of increasing volume, reducing positions, declining weakly, and a significant decline. With the temporary cease - fire agreement between Iran and Israel and the subsiding of geopolitical risk in the Middle East, the premium of energy - chemical commodities was reversed. Under the suppression of bearish sentiment, it is expected that the prices of domestic and international crude oil futures will maintain a weakening trend in a volatile manner [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of June 22, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 617,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,300 tons or 1.70%. The bonded area inventory decreased by 3.34% to 81,200 tons, and the general trade inventory increased by 2.51% to 536,100 tons. The inbound rate of bonded warehouses decreased by 1.64 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.49 percentage points. The inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 0.43 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 1.52 percentage points [9]. - As of June 20, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.39%, a week - on - week increase of 2.69 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.19 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of China's full - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.54%, a week - on - week increase of 1.56 percentage points and a year - on - year significant decline of 7.56 percentage points [9]. - In May 2025, the inventory warning index of Chinese automobile dealers was 52.7%, a year - on - year decrease of 5.5 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 7.1 percentage points. The index was above the boom - bust line, indicating an improvement in the automobile circulation industry [9]. - In May 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 2.649 million and 2.686 million vehicles respectively, a month - on - month increase of 1.1% and 3.7% and a year - on - year increase of 11.6% and 11.2%. From January to May 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 12.826 million and 12.748 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 10.9% [10]. - In May 2025, the heavy - truck market in China sold about 83,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 5% and a year - on - year increase of about 6%. From January to May 2025, the cumulative sales of the heavy - truck market in China were about 435,500 vehicles, a year - on - year slight increase of about 1% [10]. Methanol - As of the week ending June 20, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 83.82%, a week - on - week increase of 1.65%, a month - on - month increase of 1.58%, and a significant year - on - year increase of 7.23%. The average weekly methanol output in China reached 1.9979 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 15,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 36,400 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 293,600 tons [11]. - As of the week ending June 20, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 29.88%, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.11%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was 7.53%, a week - on - week increase of 3.19%. The acetic acid operating rate was 91.42%, a week - on - week significant decrease of 7.39%. The MTBE operating rate was 48.27%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.06%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 79.76%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 0.30 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 1.67% [11]. - As of June 20, 2025, the domestic methanol - to - olefin futures margin was - 317 yuan/ton, a week - on - week significant decrease of 239 yuan/ton and a month - on - month significant decline of 596 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week ending June 20, 2025, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was 449,500 tons, a week - on - week significant decrease of 64,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 55,700 tons, and a significant year - on - year decrease of 72,600 tons. The inventory in East China ports was 309,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 27,100 tons, and the inventory in South China ports was 140,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 37,400 tons. As of the week ending June 19, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory in China was 367,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 31,300 tons, and a year - on - year decrease of 59,900 tons [12][13] Crude Oil - As of the week ending June 13, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 439, a week - on - week decrease of 3 and a year - on - year decrease of 49. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.431 million barrels, a week - on - week slight increase of 300,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 2.31 million barrels per day [13]. - As of the week ending June 13, 2025, the commercial crude oil inventory in the United States (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 421 million barrels, a week - on - week significant decrease of 11.473 million barrels and a year - on - year significant decrease of 36.61 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 22.688 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 995,000 barrels. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory was 402 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 230,000 barrels. The refinery operating rate in the United States was 93.2%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.1 percentage points, a month - on - month increase of 2.5 percentage points, and a year - on - year decrease of 1.30 percentage points [14]. - Since June 2025, international crude oil futures prices have shown a trend of stabilizing in a volatile manner, and the bullish force in the market has increased. As of June 17, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 191,941 contracts, a week - on - week significant increase of 23,984 contracts and a significant increase of 13,730 contracts or 7.70% compared with the May average of 178,211 contracts. As of June 17, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 216,664 contracts, a week - on - week significant increase of 34,224 contracts and a significant increase of 81,129 contracts or 59.86% compared with the May average of 135,535 contracts [15] 2. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | |--|--|--|--|--|--|--| | Shanghai Rubber | 13,850 yuan/ton | +50 yuan/ton | 13,665 yuan/ton | - 285 yuan/ton | 185 yuan/ton | +335 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,665 yuan/ton | - 87 yuan/ton | 2,379 yuan/ton | - 125 yuan/ton | 286 yuan/ton | +38 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 531.4 yuan/barrel | - 0.4 yuan/barrel | 518.6 yuan/barrel | - 55.9 yuan/barrel | +12.8 yuan/barrel | +55.5 yuan/barrel | [17] 3. Relevant Charts - Rubber: The report provides charts including rubber basis, rubber 9 - 1 spread, rubber inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone, rubber futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, full - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [18][20][22] - Methanol: The report provides charts including methanol basis, methanol 9 - 1 spread, methanol inventory in domestic ports, methanol inland social inventory, methanol - to - olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [31][33][35] - Crude Oil: The report provides charts including crude oil basis, crude oil futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, US commercial crude oil inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [44][46][48]

Group 1: Core Views - On June 24, the coke main contract closed at 1,351.5 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 2.03%. The spot prices at Rizhao Port and Qingdao Port decreased week-on-week. After the fourth round of price cuts on the 23rd, the coke price continued to fall. The futures market may maintain a wide - range oscillation in June considering the supply and demand factors [5][31]. - On June 24, the coking coal main contract closed at 784 points, with an intraday decline of 1.94%. The supply of coking coal shrank during the safety month. The conflict between Israel and Iran affected the futures price, and if the cease - fire is achieved, it will bring pressure on the coking coal futures [6][32]. Group 2: Industry News - Trump announced on the 24th that the cease - fire agreement between Israel and Iran had taken effect. Before that, there were missile attacks between the two sides [8]. - On June 24, the price of coking coal in Linfen Yaodu District remained stable, with the ex - factory price of high - sulfur strong fat coal at 780 yuan/ton [9]. Group 3: Spot Market | Variety | Current Value | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade coke (flat price) | 1,220 | - 3.94% | - 8.96% | - 27.81% | - 38.69% | | Qingdao Port quasi - first - grade coke (out - of - warehouse price) | 1,140 | - 2.56% | - 6.56% | - 29.63% | - 40.00% | | Ganqimaodu Port Mongolian coking coal | 865 | 0.00% | - 5.98% | - 26.69% | - 45.94% | | Jingtang Port Australian coking coal | 1,190 | - 1.65% | - 6.30% | - 20.13% | - 44.13% | | Jingtang Port Shanxi coking coal | 1,250 | 0.00% | - 3.10% | - 18.30% | - 39.02% | [10] Group 4: Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Change Rate | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | | 1,351.5 | - 2.03% | 1,390.0 | 1,346.5 | 29,761 | 8,447 | 52,400 | 1,826 | | Coking Coal | | 784.0 | - 1.94% | 812.0 | 781.0 | 1,052,370 | 275,562 | 533,550 | 9,536 | [13] Group 5: Related Charts - Charts show the inventory of coke (including 230 independent coking plants, ports, 247 steel mills' coking plants, and total inventory) and coking coal (including mine mouth, ports, 247 sample steel mills, and all - sample independent coking plants) from 2019 - 2025 [14][20]. - Other charts include Shanghai terminal wire rod procurement volume, domestic steel mill production (blast furnace start - up rate and steel mill profitability), coal washing plant production (inventory and start - up rate), and coking plant production (ton - coke profit and coke oven capacity utilization) [25][28]. Group 6: Market Outlook - Coke may maintain a wide - range oscillation in June, considering the possible recovery of coking coal supply after the safety month and the long - term pressure on the terminal export of ferrous metals [5][31]. - The coking coal futures may face pressure if the Israel - Iran cease - fire is achieved. Continuous attention should be paid to supply and geopolitical developments [6][32].

电话：0571-87006873 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 有色金属 | 日报 2025 年 6 月 24 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 有色分化，铜强铝弱 核心观点 沪铜 昨夜铜价夜盘走强，伦铜拉升至 9700 美元一线。盘后特朗普表示 伊朗和以色列将全面停火，美铜拉升至 5 美分/磅一线。今日午间新 华社快讯:据伊朗新闻电视台报道，伊朗 24 日对以色列发动数轮袭击 后，停火开始。产业层面，23 日 Mysteel 电解铜社库为 13.19 万吨， 较上去去库 1.05 万吨。产业补库意愿上升，7-8 月差也有所走强。 此外，近期海外伦铜升水明显走强，这说明了海外电解铜 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 国债期货 | 日报 2025 年 6 月 24 日 国债期货 专业研究·创造价值 地缘因素降温，国债期货震荡回调 核心观点 今日国债期货均震荡小幅回调。消息面，伊朗接受与以色列停火方案， 地缘风险有所缓和，避险情绪回落。从国内宏观的角度，未来降息预期仍较 为明确，国债的下方支撑较为牢靠。一方面当前宏观经济指标边际走弱，下 半年宏观政策出台需要偏宽松的货币环境，另一方面美国经济下行压力增 大，美联储降息预期升温，汇率端压制边际减弱。短期内继续降息的可能性 偏弱，5 月降息的政策效果有待检验，下半年宏观政策需要等待 7 月政治局 会议的指引，短期内国债上行动能有所不足。总的来说，短期内预计国债期 货保持震荡整理。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明：本人具有中国期货 业协会授予的期货从业资格证 书，期货投资咨询资格证书， 本人承诺以勤勉的职业态度， 独立、客观地出具本报告。本 ...

一、 宏观数据速览 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20250416 | 2025/03 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 5.40 | 5.40 | 5.30 | | 20250531 | 2025/05 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.50 | 49.00 | 49.50 | | 20250531 | 2025/05 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 动 | % | 50.30 | 50.40 | 51.10 | | 20250613 | 2025/05 | 社会融资规模增量:当 月值 | 亿元 | | 22871.00 11591.00 | 20623.00 | | 20250613 | 2025/05 | M0(流通中的现金):同 | % | 12.10 | 12.00 | 11.70 | | | | 比 | | | | | | 20250613 | 2025/05 | M1(货币):同 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber and synthetic rubber are expected to run weakly in the short - term, mid - term, and intraday, with a weakening bullish atmosphere leading to an overall weakening trend [1][5][7] 3. Summary by Related Categories Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **View**: Short - term: volatile; Mid - term: volatile; Intraday: weakly volatile; Overall: weakly run [1][5] - **Core Logic**: As geopolitical factors weaken, the common bullish marginal effect of energy and chemical commodity futures decreases, and the negative factors of the weak supply - demand structure in the rubber market re - dominate. Supply is in the peak tapping season with strong incremental expectations and high monthly output pressure. Downstream demand is weak, tire production and sales growth has slowed, and terminal demand has entered the off - season. On Monday night, the 2509 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures showed a weakly volatile trend, with the futures price slightly down 0.36% to 13,835 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain a weakly volatile trend on Tuesday [5] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **View**: Short - term: volatile; Mid - term: volatile; Intraday: weakly volatile; Overall: weakly run [1][7] - **Core Logic**: Due to the weakening of geopolitical factors, the prices of energy futures such as crude oil have fallen, dragging down the 2508 contract of synthetic rubber futures, which showed a weakly volatile trend on Monday night, with the futures price slightly down 0.22% to 11,440 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain a weakly volatile trend on Tuesday [7]