Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: Sino-US trade friction expectations have intensified, putting pressure on copper prices. Last week, copper prices rose and then fell. LME copper once reached the $11,000 mark, and SHFE copper reached the 88,000 mark. This was due to the decline of precious metals, the rebound of the US dollar index, and strong technical pressure as copper prices were at a near 5-year high, leading to a strong willingness among short-term bulls to close positions. The sharp rise was mainly caused by supply shortages, macro and financial attributes, and demand resilience. On Friday night, the renewed rise in Sino-US trade friction expectations led to a general market decline, with the non-ferrous sector under significant pressure and copper leading the decline, with SHFE copper falling nearly 3,000 yuan/ton. After the holiday, downstream buyers were cautious at high prices, but as prices fell, industrial support may continue to strengthen. The rise in tariff expectations will affect downstream export expectations, putting pressure on the non-ferrous sector. Short-term attention should be paid to whether copper prices can stop falling and stabilize. The short-term negative impact was fully reflected in Friday's night session, and LME copper prices rebounded before the domestic market opened on Monday. Sustainable attention can be paid to the technical support at the 83,000 mark, and copper prices may continue to stabilize and rebound [4][54]. - **Aluminum**: Sino-US trade friction expectations have intensified, putting pressure on aluminum prices. Last week, aluminum prices rose and then fell. On Friday night, affected by Sino-US trade friction, aluminum prices declined significantly. Since late September, driven by the rise in copper prices, the non-ferrous sector has generally risen, and aluminum prices have followed suit. However, aluminum prices faced certain pressure at the mid-September high, and there was a strong willingness among bulls to close positions. After the holiday, downstream buyers were cautious at high prices, and the continuous increase in downstream aluminum rod inventories also put pressure on futures prices. Short-term attention should be paid to whether copper prices in the non-ferrous sector can stabilize, which largely determines the direction of the sector. Technically, SHFE aluminum can focus on the support at the late-September low [5][55]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Factors - On Friday night, the renewed rise in Sino-US trade friction expectations led to a general market decline, with the non-ferrous sector under significant pressure and copper leading the decline, with SHFE copper falling nearly 3,000 yuan/ton. Since late September, copper prices have recorded significant gains, so short-term bulls have a strong willingness to close positions. At the industrial level, downstream buyers were cautious at high prices after the holiday, but as prices fall, industrial support may continue to strengthen. The rise in tariff expectations will affect downstream export expectations, putting pressure on the non-ferrous sector. Short-term attention should be paid to whether copper prices can stop falling and stabilize. On Monday morning, US President Trump issued another statement, regarded by the market as a "TACO" trade [9]. 3.2 Copper - **Volume and Price Trends**: Last week, copper prices rose and then fell. LME copper once reached the $11,000 mark, and SHFE copper reached the 88,000 mark, affected by the decline of precious metals, the rebound of the US dollar index, and strong technical pressure [4][54]. - **Copper Ore Processing Fees**: Copper ore processing fees have rebounded slightly from a low level [25]. - **Electrolytic Copper De-stocking**: The pace of electrolytic copper de-stocking has slowed down [28]. - **Downstream Primary Sector**: No specific content provided in the report. 3.3 Aluminum - **Volume and Price Trends**: Last week, aluminum prices rose and then fell. On Friday night, affected by Sino-US trade friction, aluminum prices declined significantly. Since late September, driven by the rise in copper prices, the non-ferrous sector has generally risen, and aluminum prices have followed suit [5][55]. - **Upstream Industry Chain**: No specific content provided in the report. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Stockpiling**: The pace of electrolytic aluminum stockpiling has slowed down [44]. - **Downstream Primary Sector**: After the holiday, downstream buyers were cautious at high prices, and the continuous increase in downstream aluminum rod inventories put pressure on futures prices [5][55]. 3.4 Conclusion - **Copper**: Short-term attention should be paid to whether copper prices can stop falling and stabilize. Sustainable attention can be paid to the technical support at the 83,000 mark, and copper prices may continue to stabilize and rebound [4][54]. - **Aluminum**: Short-term attention should be paid to whether copper prices in the non-ferrous sector can stabilize, which largely determines the direction of the sector. Technically, SHFE aluminum can focus on the support at the late-September low [5][55].

Report Title - Steel & Iron Ore | Daily Report, dated October 13, 2025 [3] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - **Rebar**: The main contract futures price fluctuated downward, with a daily decline of 0.77%, and both trading volume and open interest increased. Currently, rebar supply is contracting while demand is weak. With a supply-demand imbalance, industrial contradictions are accumulating. Holiday inventory increased significantly, pressuring steel prices again. The relative positive factor is cost support. It is expected that rebar will continue to oscillate and seek a bottom, and attention should be paid to demand performance [4]. - **Hot-rolled coil**: The main contract futures price fluctuated weakly, with a daily decline of 0.88%, and both trading volume and open interest increased. At present, the supply pressure of hot-rolled coils is relatively large, and there are concerns about demand. Industrial contradictions are accumulating, inventory has increased significantly, and hot-rolled coil prices will continue to be under pressure and run weakly. Attention should be paid to the possibility of intensified industrial contradictions caused by weakening demand and demand performance [4]. - **Iron ore**: The main contract futures price fluctuated strongly, with a daily increase of 1.13%, and both trading volume and open interest increased. Currently, iron ore demand is performing well, providing support for ore prices. However, supply is at a high level, and demand resilience is weakening. The fundamentals are expected to deteriorate. Coupled with weakening market sentiment due to tariff disturbances, the upward driving force for high-valued ore prices is not strong. It is expected to maintain high-level oscillatory operation, and attention should be paid to steel performance [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - **Foreign trade data**: In the first three quarters of this year, China's total goods trade imports and exports reached 33.61 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4%. Among them, exports were 19.95 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.1%; imports were 13.66 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.2%. In September, imports and exports were 4.04 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8% [6]. - **Automobile market data**: In September, the retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the overall domestic passenger vehicle market was 57.8%. National passenger vehicle retail sales in September were 2.241 million units, a year-on-year increase of 6.3% and a month-on-month increase of 11.0%. Cumulative retail sales this year reached 17.005 million units, a year-on-year increase of 9.2%. In September, passenger vehicle exports (including complete vehicles and CKD) were 528,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 20.7% and a month-on-month increase of 5.7%. From January to September, passenger vehicle exports by manufacturers were 3.999 million units, a year-on-year increase of 12.5%. In September, new energy vehicles accounted for 40.1% of total exports, an increase of 15 percentage points compared to the same period [7]. - **Steel trade data**: In September 2025, China exported 1.0465 million tons of steel, a month-on-month increase of 95,500 tons and a month-on-month increase of 10.0%; from January to September, cumulative steel exports were 8.7955 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.2%. In September, China imported 54,800 tons of steel, a month-on-month increase of 4,800 tons and a month-on-month increase of 9.6%; from January to September, cumulative steel imports were 453,200 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 12.6% [8]. 2. Spot Market - **Steel spot prices**: Rebar (HRB400E, 20mm) in Shanghai was priced at 3,190 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton; in Tianjin, it was 3,190 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton; the national average price was 3,237 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton. Hot-rolled coils (Shanghai, 4.75mm) in Shanghai were priced at 3,320 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton; in Tianjin, they were 3,250 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton; the national average price was 3,370 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton. Tangshan steel billets (Q235) were priced at 2,950 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. Zhangjiagang heavy scrap (≥6mm) was priced at 2,150 yuan/ton, unchanged [9]. - **Iron ore spot prices**: 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was priced at 796 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton. Tangshan iron concentrate powder (wet basis) was priced at 812 yuan/ton, unchanged. Ocean freight rates from Australia were 9.58 yuan/ton, up 0.01 yuan/ton; from Brazil, they were 23.64 yuan/ton, down 0.52 yuan/ton. The SGX swap (current month) was priced at 106.40 US dollars/ton, up 1.49 US dollars/ton. The Platts Index (CFR, 62%) was priced at 107.40 US dollars/ton, up 1.55 US dollars/ton [9]. 3. Futures Market - **Rebar futures**: The closing price of the active contract was 3,083 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.77%. The highest price was 3,114 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 3,066 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 1,231,858 lots, an increase of 192,496 lots compared to the previous day. The open interest was 1,952,748 lots, an increase of 26,595 lots [11]. - **Hot-rolled coil futures**: The closing price of the active contract was 3,261 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.88%. The highest price was 3,295 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 3,245 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 557,390 lots, an increase of 143,388 lots compared to the previous day. The open interest was 1,422,524 lots, an increase of 24,873 lots [11]. - **Iron ore futures**: The closing price of the active contract was 804.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.13%. The highest price was 804.5 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 791.0 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 344,315 lots, an increase of 119,517 lots compared to the previous day. The open interest was 485,339 lots, an increase of 9,148 lots [11]. 4. Related Charts - **Steel inventory**: Included charts of rebar inventory (weekly changes, total inventory of steel mills and social inventory), hot-rolled coil inventory (weekly changes, total inventory of steel mills and social inventory), and related inventory data trends [13][14][16]. - **Iron ore inventory**: Included charts of 45-port iron ore inventory (total inventory, seasonal changes, inventory month-on-month changes), 247 steel mills' iron ore inventory, and domestic mine iron concentrate powder inventory [20][21][25]. - **Steel mill production**: Included charts of 247 sample steel mills' blast furnace operating rates and capacity utilization rates, 247 steel mills' profitable steel mill ratios, 87 independent electric furnace operating rates, and 75 building material independent electric arc furnace steel mills' profit and loss situations [28][30][34]. 5. Market Outlook - **Rebar**: During the holiday, both supply and demand of rebar weakened. Construction steel mill production was weak, and weekly rebar production decreased by 36,200 tons month-on-month. Supply contracted to a relatively low level, but the space for production cuts during the peak season was questionable, and inventory was high, so the positive effect was not strong. At the same time, rebar demand was weak during the holiday, weekly apparent demand decreased month-on-month, and high-frequency indicators were all at low levels in recent years. The downstream industry showed no signs of improvement, and weak demand would continue to suppress steel prices. It is expected that rebar will continue to oscillate and seek a bottom, and attention should be paid to post-holiday demand performance [35]. - **Hot-rolled coil**: The supply-demand pattern continued to weaken. Plate steel mill production was weakly stable, and weekly production decreased by 14,000 tons month-on-month, but it was still at a high level for the year, and inventory was high, so supply pressure was relatively large, continuing to pressure steel prices. At the same time, hot-rolled coil demand was weak during the holiday, and weekly apparent demand decreased by 336,400 tons month-on-month. The relative positive factor was that the production of the main downstream cold-rolled products remained at a high level, providing support for hot-rolled coil demand. However, it should be noted that the industrial contradictions in the cold-rolled industry were not alleviated, and combined with limited improvement in external demand, there were concerns about hot-rolled coil demand. Hot-rolled coil prices will continue to be under pressure and run weakly, and attention should be paid to the possibility of intensified industrial contradictions caused by weakening demand [35]. - **Iron ore**: There were changes in both supply and demand. Steel mill production was stabilizing, and the terminal consumption of iron ore remained at a high level. Last week, the daily average pig iron output and daily consumption of imported ore by sample steel mills showed mixed changes, with little overall change. Iron ore demand was performing well, but the industrial contradictions in the steel market were constantly accumulating, and the resilience was expected to weaken, so the positive effect was not strong. At the same time, domestic port arrivals continued to recover, while overseas miner shipments declined slightly, both maintaining high levels for the year. Overseas supply was high under high ore prices, and combined with the recovery of domestic ore supply after the holiday, the supply pressure of iron ore increased. It is expected that iron ore will maintain high-level oscillatory operation, and attention should be paid to steel performance [36].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The current market sentiment is positive, with low implied volatility, making it advisable to go long on volatility. Policy support and continuous capital inflows are the core drivers for the medium - to long - term upward trend of the stock index, but there is short - term technical adjustment pressure due to significant valuation increases. A bull spread strategy is suitable for the current market, and it is the right time to construct a call bull spread strategy to retain the upside potential of the CSI 300 Index while controlling short - term callback risks [2][17]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Option - related Indicators - The option position PCR indicates positive market sentiment. After the National Day holiday, the position PCR of CSI 300 index options rose from 94.14% to 100.19%, and its percentile level since 2023 increased from 91.7% to 94.7%, suggesting that the proportion of investors with non - bearish views is at a high historical percentile [3]. - The option implied volatility is at a low level. After the National Day holiday, the implied volatility of at - the - money options of CSI 300 index options continued to decline from 13.84% to 13.48%, and its percentile level since 2023 dropped from 23.3% to 17.4%. Although the current volatility expectation is low, there is a high possibility of an increase in the future, so it is advisable to hold a positive vega exposure [5][6]. Stock Index Direction - Policy support and continuous capital inflows are the core drivers for the medium - to long - term upward trend of the stock index. However, due to significant valuation increases, there is short - term technical adjustment pressure, and the stock index is likely to maintain wide - range fluctuations in the short term [8]. Manufacturing PMI - In September, the manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, up from 49.4% in the previous month, indicating continued improvement in the manufacturing sector. The production and new order indices both increased, showing synchronous improvement in supply and demand, with the production side recovering faster. However, there are concerns in the price indices, and the demand side still needs policy support [9]. Consumer Policy - The consumer trade - in policy has promoted the growth of related consumer categories. From January to August, the cumulative sales of household appliances, communication equipment, and furniture in enterprises above the designated size increased by 28.4%, 21.1%, and 22.0% year - on - year respectively. But there are still blockages in the transmission from corporate profits to household income, and the policy needs to be long - term and shift towards high - repurchase - rate goods and services [11]. Capital Inflows - Since July, margin trading funds and household wealth management funds have continuously flowed into the stock market. As of October 9, the margin balance exceeded 2.4 trillion yuan. The continuous growth of newly established stock funds has exceeded seasonal performance. Overseas, the Fed's interest rate cut in September may drive foreign capital inflows, and domestically, the A - share market is becoming a new direction for social wealth allocation [14]. Valuation Pressure - After continuous rises, the valuation of the CSI 300 Index has increased significantly. As of October 9, its PE - TTM was 14.4, at the 90.59% percentile in the past 10 years. After the policy benefits are realized in October, the short - term technical adjustment pressure will increase [16]. Conclusion and Operation Ideas - A call bull spread strategy is suitable for the current market. It is applicable to a moderately bullish market, has limited losses, and has a positive vega exposure. It can match the current market expectations and is the right time to construct this strategy [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report is a daily report on futures variety arbitrage data from Baocheng Futures on October 13, 2025, presenting the basis, inter - period, and inter - variety data of multiple futures varieties including thermal coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures [1][5][19][26][39][49]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Thermal Coal - The basis data for thermal coal from September 26 to October 10, 2025, is presented, with the basis on October 10 being - 96.4 yuan/ton, and the 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, and 9 - month minus 5 - month spreads all being 0.0 [2]. 3.2 Energy Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - Basis data for fuel oil, crude oil/asphalt, INE crude oil, etc., from September 26 to October 10, 2025, are provided, such as the basis of INE crude oil on October 10 being 47.20 yuan/ton [7]. 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - Basis data for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, PP from September 26 to October 10, 2025, are shown. For example, the basis of rubber on October 10 was - 665 yuan/ton [9]. - Inter - period data for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are presented, including 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, and 9 - month minus 5 - month spreads [11]. - Inter - variety data for LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, PP - 3 * methanol from September 26 to October 10, 2025, are given, like the LLDPE - PVC spread on October 10 being 2298 yuan/ton [11]. 3.3 Black Metals - Basis data for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from September 26 to October 10, 2025, are provided. For instance, the basis of rebar on October 10 was 157.0 yuan/ton [19]. - Inter - period data for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are presented, including 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9(10) - month minus 1 - month, and 9(10) - month minus 5 - month spreads [20]. - Inter - variety data for rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot - rolled coil from September 26 to October 10, 2025, are given, such as the rebar/iron ore ratio on October 10 being 3.91 [20]. 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - Domestic basis data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from September 26 to October 10, 2025, are presented. For example, the basis of copper on October 10 was 700 yuan/ton [29]. 3.4.2 London Market - LME non - ferrous metal data including copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on October 10, 2025, are provided, including LME premium/discount, Shanghai - London ratio, CIF, domestic spot price, and import profit/loss [33]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - Basis data for soybeans No. 1, soybeans No. 2, soybean meal, soybean oil, corn, etc., from September 26 to October 10, 2025, are shown. For example, the basis of soybeans No. 1 on October 10 was 7327.3 yuan/ton [39]. - Inter - period data for soybeans No. 1, soybeans No. 2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, etc., are presented, including 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, and 9 - month minus 5 - month spreads [39]. - Inter - variety data for soybeans No. 1/corn, soybeans No. 2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, soybean meal - rapeseed meal, etc., from September 26 to October 10, 2025, are given, such as the soybean oil/soybean meal ratio on October 10 being 2.85 [39]. 3.6 Stock Index Futures - Basis data for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from September 26 to October 10, 2025, are provided. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on October 10 was 24.63 [50]. - Inter - period data for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are presented, including next - month minus current - month and next - quarter minus current - quarter spreads [50].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For stock index futures, Trump's sudden tariff threat will disrupt the stock index in the short - term. Last week, each stock index rose first and then fell, with a slight decline. In the long - term, policy expectations and capital inflows support the stock index. The subsequent trend of the stock index depends on the game between policy expectation fermentation and profit - taking. Trump's tariff threat on Friday night led to a sharp drop in US stock indexes, bringing short - term pressure on the stock market, but the impact on A - shares is weaker than in early April [1][7][79]. - For ETF options and stock index options, maintain a bull spread in a low - volatility state. The implied volatility of options has declined to a low level. Since the probability of the stock index rising in the long - term is high, one can hold a bull spread or a ratio spread with a mild bullish view [2][80]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 Stock Index Trends - Last week, each stock index rose first and then fell, with a slight decline. Due to the significant increase in stock valuations, the profit - taking intention of profitable funds increased. With policy benefits about to be implemented, the policy - driven effect will weaken. In the long - term, policy expectations and capital inflows support the stock index [7]. - The table shows the price changes of spot indexes. For example, the Shanghai Composite 50 Index closed at 2974.854, with a daily decline of 1.51% and a weekly decline of 0.47% [8]. 3.1.2 Option Price Trends - This week, the 50ETF had a weekly decline of 1.90%, closing at 3.045; the 300ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) had a weekly decline of 0.37%, closing at 4.604; etc. The report also provides the price changes and weekly fluctuations of various option underlying assets and the weekly price changes of the main contracts of each option variety [13][14][15]. 3.1.3 Stock Index Futures Basis and Monthly Spread - The basis of the four stock index futures varieties shows that IF and IH are at normal quantile levels, while IM and IC are in a state of significant far - month futures discounts. The inter - period spreads of IC and IM futures have increased, indicating a strong short - term risk preference for IC and IM in the market [19]. 3.2 Option Indicators 3.2.1 PCR Indicators - The report provides the trading volume PCR and open interest PCR of various options, such as the Shanghai Composite 50ETF option, with a trading volume PCR of 113.82 and an open interest PCR of 71.82 [31]. 3.2.2 Implied Volatility - The report provides the implied volatility of at - the - money options in October 2025 and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying assets for various options. For example, the implied volatility of the Shanghai Composite 50ETF option's at - the - money option in October 2025 is 16.72%, and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying asset is 15.73% [52]. 3.3 Conclusion - Similar to the core viewpoints, for stock index futures, Trump's tariff threat disrupts the stock index in the short - term, and the stock index will fluctuate widely in the short - term. For ETF options and stock index options, maintain a bull spread in a low - volatility state [79][80].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no relevant information provided in the report. Group 2: Report's Core View - The macro - factor has weakened due to the US tariff war and the federal government shutdown. The domestic methanol supply - demand fundamentals are weak. The methanol futures 2601 contract may maintain a weak and volatile trend [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Market Review 1.1 Methanol Spot Price Slightly Decreased, and Basis Discount Narrowed - In the week of October 10, 2025, the mainstream spot price of methanol in East China was 2250 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton from before the holiday; in South China, it was 2215 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton; in North China, it was 2215 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton. The basis discount between the East China spot price and the 2601 contract futures price narrowed to 55 yuan/ton [8]. 1.2 Bearish Factors Dominated, and Methanol Traded Weakly - The tariff war and the government shutdown led to a weakening of the macro - sentiment. The domestic methanol supply - demand fundamentals were also weak. The methanol futures 2601 contract rebounded but lacked upward momentum, with a bearish moving - average arrangement [16]. 2. Analysis of the Methanol Market Supply - Demand Situation 2.1 Domestic Methanol Operating Rate Slightly Increased, and Weekly Output Increased Significantly - After the holiday, with the resumption of previously - shut - down plants, the domestic methanol supply pressure increased. As of the week of October 10, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 80.38%, slightly up 0.87% week - on - week. The weekly output averaged 203.3 tons, up 16.03 tons week - on - week. The supply will remain loose in Q4 [18]. 2.2 More Overseas Methanol Ships Arrived at Ports, and Import Pressure Rose - In Q3, due to weak international demand and India's reduced imports, more methanol was shipped to China. In August 2025, China's methanol imports reached 175.98 tons, up 65.71 tons month - on - month. The high - supply situation of Iranian methanol will continue until the gas - restriction season in Q4 [20]. 2.3 Methanol Downstream Demand Slightly Improved, and Olefin Profits Slightly Declined - As of the week of October 10, 2025, the operating rates of formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, acetic acid, MTBE, and MTO/MTP showed different changes. The domestic olefin futures profit was - 146 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton week - on - week [24]. 2.4 Port Inventory Slightly Increased, and Inland Inventory Slightly Decreased - As of the week of October 10, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was 127.30 tons, up 0.49 tons week - on - week. As of the week of September 25, 2025, the inland inventory was 32 tons, down 2.05 tons week - on - week [35]. 2.5 The Profitability of Domestic Coal - to - Methanol Slightly Shrunk - As of the week of September 30, 2025, coal - to - methanol in Northwest, Shandong, and Inner Mongolia was profitable when calculated by manufacturing cost, but the profitability was lower than before [37]. 3. Conclusion - The macro - factor has weakened, and the domestic methanol supply is high with high import pressure and high port inventory. Although the downstream demand is improving, the olefin profit is poor. The methanol futures 2601 contract may maintain a weak and volatile trend [46].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The resurgence of the tariff war by President Trump and the ongoing shutdown of the US federal government have led to a significant decline of 4.27% in the domestic crude oil futures 2512 contract last Friday, closing at 448.5 yuan per barrel. It is expected that the contract will maintain a weak and volatile trend in the future [5]. - The continuous shutdown of the US federal government, the decision of 8 OPEC+ oil - producing countries to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, and the easing of the Middle East geopolitical situation have all contributed to the weakening of support for oil prices. It is expected that domestic crude oil futures will maintain a weak and volatile trend [5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 Spot Price Slightly Rises, Basis Discount Significantly Narrows - As of the week ending October 10, 2025, the spot price of crude oil produced in the Shengli Oilfield area was 63.53 US dollars per barrel, equivalent to 451.4 yuan per barrel, a slight increase of 0.6 yuan per barrel compared to before the holiday. The main 2511 contract of domestic crude oil futures closed at 461.9 yuan per barrel, a significant weekly decline of 17.8 yuan per barrel. The basis was 10.5 yuan per barrel, and the discount significantly narrowed [9]. 3.1.2 Multiple Negative Factors Lead to a Sharp Decline in Crude Oil - President Trump's tariff war and the US federal government shutdown led to a collective decline in the peripheral financial markets last Friday. The domestic crude oil futures 2512 contract closed 4.27% lower at 448.5 yuan per barrel. It is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend [13][14]. 3.2 Upgrading of Crude Oil Supply - Demand Surplus, Accelerating Production Increase 3.2.1 OPEC+ Accelerates Capacity Release, Intensifying Supply Surplus Expectations - Since April 2025, OPEC+ has shifted from a production - cut cycle to a production - increase cycle, with a cumulative production increase of 1.919 million barrels per day from April to August. In August 2025, OPEC member countries' crude oil production was 27.948 million barrels per day, a significant monthly increase of 478,000 barrels per day and a significant annual increase of 1.296 million barrels per day. It is expected that OPEC+ oil - producing countries will accelerate production increases, increasing supply pressure [21][22][23]. 3.2.2 Non - OPEC Oil - Producing Countries Maintain High - Level Production Capacity - As of the week ending October 3, 2025, the number of active oil drilling platforms in the US was 422, a slight weekly decrease of 2 and a decrease of 57 compared to the same period last year. The daily crude oil production was 13.629 million barrels, a significant weekly increase of 124,000 barrels per day and a significant annual increase of 429,000 barrels per day. However, the growth rate of US domestic crude oil production is expected to slow down [37]. 3.2.3 The Peak Season of Crude Oil Demand in the Northern Hemisphere is Coming to an End - After entering October, the peak season of oil demand in the Northern Hemisphere ends, demand weakens, and inventory accumulation pressure increases. Different energy institutions have different forecasts for the global crude oil market, but overall, there are concerns about supply - demand imbalances [41]. 3.2.4 A Significant Increase in US Crude Oil Inventories and a Slight Increase in Refinery Utilization Rate - As of the week ending October 3, 2025, US commercial crude oil inventories reached 420.3 million barrels, a significant weekly increase of 3.715 million barrels. The refinery utilization rate was 92.4%, a slight weekly increase of 1.0 percentage point [44]. 3.2.5 A Slight Increase in China's Crude Oil Imports in August 2025 - In August 2025, China's crude oil imports reached 49.492 million tons, a significant monthly increase of 2.288 million tons and a slight annual increase of 392,000 tons. However, China's crude oil processing and import consumption may be restricted by weak demand [48]. 3.3 Easing Signs in the Middle East Situation, but Risks Remain - During the National Day holiday, the Middle East geopolitical situation showed signs of easing, weakening the support for the crude oil market. The "war premium" has subsided, and the resumption of the oil export channel in the Iraqi Kurdish region has increased the global crude oil supply expectation, suppressing oil prices [59]. 3.4 Net Long Positions in the International Crude Oil Market Show Mixed Changes Week - on - Week - As of September 23, 2025, the average non - commercial net long position in WTI crude oil was 102,958 contracts, a significant weekly increase of 4,249 contracts. As of September 30, 2025, the average net long position of Brent crude oil futures funds was 202,480 contracts, a significant weekly decrease of 9,903 contracts [64]. 3.5 Conclusion - The ongoing shutdown of the US federal government, the production increase decision of 8 OPEC+ oil - producing countries, and the easing of the Middle East situation are expected to cause domestic crude oil futures to maintain a weak and volatile trend [68].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term view of the stock index is wide - range oscillation, the medium - term view is upward, and the intraday view is weakly oscillating. The subsequent trend of the stock index depends on the game between the fermentation rhythm of policy - benefit expectations and the profit - taking rhythm of profitable funds. [1][5] 3. Summary According to Related Contents 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector | Variety | Short - term | Medium - term | Intraday | View Reference | Core Logic Summary | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2512 | Oscillation | Rise | Weakly oscillating | Wide - range oscillation | The willingness of short - term funds to take profits vs. the fermentation of medium - and long - term policy - benefit expectations [1] | 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **Market Performance**: Last Friday, each stock index oscillated and declined. The total trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2534.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 137.7 billion yuan compared with the previous day. [5] - **Core Logic**: In the short term, due to the significant increase in stock valuation, the willingness of profitable funds to take profits has risen, and the marginal driving force of policy benefits will weaken. Coupled with Trump's threat to raise tariffs, the short - term stock market is under pressure, and there is a risk of a lower opening of the stock index on Monday. In the long term, policy - benefit expectations and the continuous inflow of funds still strongly support the stock index. The subsequent trend of the stock index focuses on the game between the fermentation of policy - benefit expectations and the profit - taking of profitable funds. [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Amid the outbreak of systematic risks, the bearish sentiment quickly spread, causing the domestic rubber futures to decline under pressure last Friday. Against the backdrop of a significant increase in global financial market risk - aversion sentiment and weakening macro - factors, after the positive impact of the typhoon was digested, the rubber market returned to a situation dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. The domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend in the future [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Spot price slightly increased, and basis discount converged**: In the week of October 10, 2025, the spot reference price of Shanghai Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) oscillated around 14,550 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 250 yuan/ton compared to before the holiday. The basis between the spot and the Shanghai rubber 2601 contract showed a slightly converged discount, reaching a discount of 765 yuan/ton by the end of the week [8]. - **Systematic risks emerged, and rubber weakened**: Trump restarted the tariff war targeting China, and the US government shutdown led to a collective decline in the peripheral financial markets last Friday. Domestic rubber futures declined under pressure. The Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract dropped 2.05% to 15,045 yuan/ton, the standard rubber futures 2512 contract dropped 3.19% to 12,005 yuan/ton, and the synthetic rubber futures 2512 contract dropped 2.50% to 10,920 yuan/ton [13][14]. 3.2 2025 Third - Quarter Global Rubber Market Supply - Demand Improvement - **Southeast Asian rubber - producing countries' output slightly increased, and consumption slightly decreased**: From May to November, domestic and overseas rubber - producing areas enter the tapping season. In August 2025, ANRPC member countries' total rubber production was 1.0787 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,500 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 20,200 tons (1.84% decline). From January to August 2025, the total production was 6.8536 million tons, a slight increase of 65,000 tons (0.96% increase) compared to the same period last year. In August 2025, the total rubber consumption was 899,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17,100 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 44,200 tons (4.68% decline). From January to August 2025, the total consumption was 7.1751 million tons, a significant decrease of 267,600 tons (3.60% decline) compared to the same period last year. With normal tapping in Southeast Asian countries and a slight decline in global rubber demand, rubber prices may face pressure in the future [24]. - **China's rubber imports slightly increased in August 2025**: China's natural rubber import dependence is about 80%. In August 2025, China imported 664,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber, a year - on - year increase of 48,000 tons (7.8% increase). From January to August 2025, the total import was 5.373 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 859,000 tons (19.03% increase) [32]. - **Domestic tire production and sales were booming, and the industry's operating rate decreased week - on - week**: In August 2025, China's rubber tire outer - tire production was 102.954 million pieces, a month - on - month increase of 9.1% and a year - on - year increase of 1.5%. Tire exports were strong, with semi - steel tire exports reaching 325,900 tons, a record high. From January to August 2025, China's tire exports were 650,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.1%. However, the operating rates of semi - steel and full - steel tire sample enterprises decreased week - on - week due to holiday maintenance [35][36]. - **China's automobile production and sales increased significantly year - on - year in August 2025**: In August 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 2.815 million and 2.857 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 13% and 16.4%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative production and sales were 21.051 million and 21.128 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 12.7% and 12.6%. In August 2025, new energy vehicle production and sales were 1.391 million and 1.395 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 27.4% and 26.8%. The inventory warning index of automobile dealers was above the boom - bust line, indicating a decline in the industry's prosperity. The logistics industry was in a good state, and the heavy - truck market had a five - consecutive - month increase in sales [39]. - **SHFE warehouse receipts decreased significantly, and Qingdao Free Trade Zone inventory decreased slightly**: By the week of October 10, 2025, the Shanghai rubber futures inventory and registered warehouse receipts decreased significantly week - on - week. As of September 28, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade was 456,500 tons, a decrease of 4,700 tons (1.01% decline) compared to the previous period [53]. 3.3 Conclusion - With the global financial market risk - aversion sentiment rising, risk assets are under pressure, and macro - factors are weakening. After the positive impact of the typhoon is digested, the rubber market returns to a situation dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. The domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend [56].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 资讯早班车 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 13 请务必阅读文末免责条款 资讯早班车 二、商品投资参考 资讯早班车-2025-10-13 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20250715 | 2025/06 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 5.20 | 5.40 | 4.70 | | 20250930 | 2025/09 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.80 | 49.40 | 49.80 | | 20250930 | 2025/09 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 动 | % | 50.00 | 50.30 | 50.00 | | 20250915 | 2025/08 | 社会融资规模增量:当 | 亿元 | | 25668.00 11307.00 | 30323.00 | | | | 月值 | | | | | | 20250912 | 2025/08 | M0(流通中的现金 ...