1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of government bond futures is mainly for shock consolidation. The short - term is lack of momentum to push the market interest rate down continuously, and the subsequent trend depends on policy guidance. The government bond futures have strong bottom support due to various factors such as the expected future easing policy [4]. - For the TL2509 variety, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are shock, shock, and shock - biased - strong respectively, with an overall view of shock, mainly because of rising tariff risks and weakening macro data [1]. 3. Summary according to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2509 variety, the short - term view is shock, the medium - term view is shock, the intraday view is shock - biased - strong, and the overall view is shock. The core logic is rising tariff risks and weakening macro data [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, TS. The intraday view is shock - biased - strong, the medium - term view is shock, and the reference view is shock. - The core logic is that last Friday, government bond futures rose across the board. The central bank announced a 1 - trillion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation, increasing medium - term liquidity and sending a signal of increased quantitative monetary easing, which boosted the investment demand for government bonds. However, there is insufficient short - term momentum to push market interest rates down. The subsequent trend of government bonds depends on policy guidance, and attention can be paid to the financial policies at the Lujiazui Forum on June 18. Currently, the uncertainty of the tariff outlook is deepening, domestic macro - economic indicators are weakening marginally, the main tone of moderate monetary policy easing remains unchanged, and the market's expectation of future easing policies will rise, providing strong bottom support for government bond futures [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The domestic thermal coal price weakened again after a brief stabilization in late May. Although the safety supervision and environmental protection in coal - producing areas have increased in June, the impact on overall coal production is expected to be controllable during the peak summer demand period. The demand shows that the power plant coal consumption remains at a low level, and the inventory at Bohai Rim ports is gradually decreasing from a high level. The long - term loose supply pattern of coal has not changed, and it is likely that the peak season will not be prosperous. The coal price is expected to remain in low - level oscillation in the near future [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Black Sector (Thermal Coal Spot) - **Core Logic**: After a brief stabilization in late May, the domestic thermal coal price weakened again. In June, due to safety supervision and environmental protection in producing areas and the peak summer demand period, the impact on coal production is expected to be controllable. The 2025 flood - season climate forecast shows "more rain in the north and less in the south" this summer, with high temperatures in most areas. As of the end of May, the power plant coal consumption was at a low level, with the daily coal consumption of 8 coastal provinces' power plants at 171,100 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 16,500 tons) and that of 17 inland provinces' power plants at 280,600 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 35,700 tons). As of June 5, the total coal inventory at 9 Bohai Rim ports was 2,932,300 tons, with a significant week - on - week de - stocking of 157,400 tons and a year - on - year increase of 412,600 tons. The thermal coal peak season is approaching, but the long - term loose supply pattern remains unchanged, and the coal price is expected to oscillate at a low level [5]. - **Intraday and Medium - term Views**: The reference view is oscillation [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Today, all stock indices fluctuated within a narrow range. Although the uncertainty of overseas tariffs has increased, its marginal impact is gradually weakening. Domestic macro - economic indicators have weakened marginally, leading to an increased expectation of policy - side benefits in the market. With the rising expectation of policy benefits, the market sentiment is positive and optimistic, and the short - term downside risk of stock indices is small. However, overseas uncertainties and weak domestic demand suppress the upward momentum of stock indices from the aspects of risk preference and profit expectation respectively, making it easy for the upward movement of stock indices to encounter resistance. The policy guidance of the Lujiazui Forum on June 18 and its game with market expectations can be regarded as a turning point in the market. In general, the upward and downward spaces of current stock indices are both limited, and it is expected that stock indices will maintain a range - bound oscillation in the short term. [4] - Currently, the implied volatility of options is at a relatively low historical quantile level. Considering the strong support of stock indices, bull spread or ratio spread long positions can be arranged. [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Option Indicators - On June 6, 2025, 50ETF rose 0.07% to close at 2.756; 300ETF (SSE) rose 0.05% to close at 3.986; 300ETF (SZSE) rose 0.07% to close at 4.021; the CSI 300 Index fell 0.09% to close at 3873.98; the CSI 1000 Index fell 0.23% to close at 6152.84; 500ETF (SSE) rose 0.02% to close at 5.785; 500ETF (SZSE) fell 0.04% to close at 2.309; the ChiNext ETF fell 0.30% to close at 2.017; the Shenzhen 100ETF fell 0.11% to close at 2.673; the SSE 50 Index fell 0.12% to close at 2688.85; the STAR 50ETF fell 0.38% to close at 1.05; the E Fund STAR 50ETF fell 0.39% to close at 1.02. [6] - The trading volume PCR and position PCR of various options on June 6, 2025, and their comparison with the previous trading day are provided in detail, such as the trading volume PCR of SSE 50ETF options being 84.80 (previous trading day: 83.04), and the position PCR being 94.15 (previous trading day: 94.86). [7] - The implied volatility of at - the - money options in June 2025 and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying assets for various options are presented, for example, the implied volatility of at - the - money SSE 50ETF options in June 2025 is 12.32%, and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying asset is 8.37%. [8] 3.2 Related Charts - **SSE 50ETF Options**: Include charts of SSE 50ETF trends, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curves, and at - the - money implied volatility of various tenors. [10][11][12] - **SSE 300ETF Options**: Comprise charts of SSE 300ETF trends, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curves, and at - the - money implied volatility of various tenors. [20][21] - **SZSE 300ETF Options**: Contain charts of SZSE 300ETF trends, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curves, and at - the - money implied volatility of various tenors. [23][24] - **CSI 300 Index Options**: Include charts of CSI 300 index trends, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curves, and at - the - money implied volatility of various tenors. [36][37] - **CSI 1000 Index Options**: Comprise charts of CSI 1000 index trends, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curves, and at - the - money implied volatility of various tenors. [49][50] - **SSE 500ETF Options**: Contain charts of SSE 500ETF trends, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curves, and at - the - money implied volatility of various tenors. [62][63] - **SZSE 500ETF Options**: Include charts of SZSE 500ETF trends, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curves, and at - the - money implied volatility of various tenors. [74][75] - **ChiNext ETF Options**: Comprise charts of ChiNext ETF trends, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curves, and at - the - money implied volatility of various tenors. [86][87] - **Shenzhen 100ETF Options**: Contain charts of Shenzhen 100ETF trends, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curves, and at - the - money implied volatility of various tenors. [99][100] - **SSE 50 Index Options**: Include charts of SSE 50 index trends, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curves, and at - the - money implied volatility of various tenors. [112][113] - **STAR 50ETF Options**: Comprise charts of STAR 50ETF trends, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curves, and at - the - money implied volatility of various tenors. [124][125] - **E Fund STAR 50ETF Options**: Contain charts of E Fund STAR 50ETF trends, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curves, and at - the - money implied volatility of various tenors. [129][130]

煤焦周度产业数据 2025年6月6日 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778号 | 简评：1、焦企、钢厂谨慎采购， | | 焦煤、焦炭库存继续在上游堆积； | | 2、本周， | 全国523家炼焦煤矿精煤 | 姓名：涂伟华 | | 宝城期货投资咨询部 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日均产量74.5万吨， | 环比降1.8万吨， | | 已低于去年同期水平； 3、铁水产量继续小幅回落， | | 随着施工淡 | 从业资格证号：F3060359 | | 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 | | | 季临近， | 焦炭需求持续承压。 | | | | | 电话：0571-87006873 | | 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com | | | 焦炭库存 | 库存(万吨) | 本周 | 环比 | 同比 | 焦煤库存 | 库存(万吨) | 本周 | 环比 | 同比 | | 230家独立焦化厂 | | 88.41 | 10.08 | 52.1 | | 523家炼焦煤矿 | 480.7 | 7.7 | 20 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of hot - rolled coils has weakened. With continuous resumption of production in plate mills, the weekly output of hot - rolled coils increased by 92,000 tons week - on - week, reaching a high for the year, and supply pressure is rising. Meanwhile, the demand for hot - rolled coils is running weakly and steadily, with the weekly apparent demand decreasing by 60,100 tons week - on - week. Although the high - frequency transactions have increased slightly, the demand resilience has weakened. The relatively positive factors are the high - level cold - rolled production and the easing of Sino - US trade risks, which still support the demand. However, the pressure caused by the intensification of downstream contradictions needs to be guarded against. In general, with supply rising and demand running weakly, the fundamentals of hot - rolled coils have weakened, inventory has started to increase, and prices are under pressure. With the easing of Sino - US trade risks and improved market sentiment, in the short - term, hot - rolled coil prices are expected to stabilize with fluctuations, and the demand performance should be monitored [6]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Supply - The weekly output of hot - rolled coils is 3.2875 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 92,000 tons and a month - on - month increase of 92,000 tons. Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 32,300 tons. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 90.65%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.04 percentage points, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04 percentage points, and an increase of 2.51 percentage points compared with the same period last year [2]. Demand - The apparent demand for hot - rolled coils is 3.2092 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 60,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 60,100 tons, and a decrease of 89,900 tons compared with the same period last year. The weekly output of cold - rolled coils is 887,600 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 7,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,600 tons, and an increase of 41,200 tons compared with the same period last year [2]. Inventory - The total inventory of hot - rolled coils is 3.4064 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 78,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 78,300 tons, and a decrease of 742,100 tons compared with the same period last year. The in - plant inventory is 763,500 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 13,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13,300 tons, and a decrease of 135,500 tons compared with the same period last year. The social inventory is 2.6429 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 65,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 65,000 tons, and a decrease of 606,600 tons compared with the same period last year [2].

本周值 环比变化 上月末值 本月变化 同期值 同期变化 45港铁矿石库存 13,826.69 -39.89 13,866.58 -39.89 14,927.76 -1,101.07 247家钢厂进口矿库存 8,690.18 -64.15 8,754.33 -64.15 9,218.20 -528.02 45港铁矿石到货量 2,536.50 385.20 2,151.30 385.20 2,256.00 280.50 全球19港铁矿石发货量 3,431.00 242.30 3,188.70 242.30 3,248.70 182.30 247家钢厂日均铁水产量 241.80 -0.11 241.91 -0.11 235.75 6.05 45港日均疏港量 313.99 -12.69 326.68 -12.69 312.82 1.17 247家钢厂进口矿日耗 300.48 0.80 299.68 0.80 288.10 12.38 主港铁矿成交周均值 95.20 -1.74 96.94 -1.74 97.58 -2.38 铁矿石周度数据（20250606） 库存 供给 需求 10,000 11,000 12,000 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of coke has not changed significantly this week, continuing the weak supply - demand situation in the off - season. The increase in uncertainties on the coking coal supply side has intensified the long - short game in the market. Some short - sellers have stopped losses and left the market, driving the coke futures to rebound at a low level. The sustainability of the rebound depends on the actual situation of the coking coal supply side, and there is a risk of a second bottoming if the contraction expectation is falsified [5][33]. - Since late May, the output of some coking coal mines has declined. In June, due to safety supervision, environmental protection, and the poor coal auction situation in Mongolia, as well as political turmoil in Mongolia, the supply uncertainty has increased. Short - sellers have strong willingness to stop losses, driving the coking coal futures to rebound significantly at a low level. However, before the supply - demand expectation is substantially reversed, the rebound space may be limited, and a second bottoming is possible. If there is a significant contraction in domestic output or imports, the coal price center is expected to rise [6][34]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry News - In late May, the average daily output of crude steel of key steel enterprises was 209,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.9% [8]. - On June 6, the online auction of coking coal by Mongolia's ER company ended in failure. The starting price of Meng 3 clean coal was 750 yuan/ton, and all 12,800 tons were unsold. It has been 19 consecutive auctions with no sales since April 22 [9]. Spot Market | Variety | Current Price | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke (Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade flat - price) | 1,340 yuan/ton | 0.00% | 0.00% | - 20.71% | - 34.31% | | Coke (Qingdao Port quasi - first - grade ex - warehouse) | 1,180 yuan/ton | - 4.07% | - 3.28% | - 27.16% | - 40.10% | | Coking Coal (Ganqimaodu Port Mongolian coal) | 900 yuan/ton | - 5.26% | - 2.17% | - 23.73% | - 44.79% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port Australian coal) | 1,200 yuan/ton | - 6.25% | - 5.51% | - 19.46% | - 44.70% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port Shanxi coal) | 1,290 yuan/ton | - 2.27% | 0.00% | - 15.69% | - 38.57% | [10] Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Increase/Decrease (%) | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | - | 1,350.5 yuan/ton | 0.67 | 1,379.0 yuan/ton | 1,335.5 yuan/ton | 33,479 | - 883 | 53,370 | - 90 | | Coking Coal | - | 778.5 yuan/ton | 3.18 | 796.0 yuan/ton | 757.5 yuan/ton | 1,558,449 | 265,513 | 556,894 | - 22,924 | [13] Relevant Charts - The report provides multiple charts related to the inventory of coke and coking coal, including the inventory of 230 independent coking plants, 247 steel - mill coking plants, total coke inventory, port coke inventory, mine - mouth coking coal inventory, port coking coal inventory, and 247 sample steel - mill coking coal inventory. It also includes charts on domestic steel - mill production, Shanghai terminal screw - thread steel procurement, coal - washing plant production, and coking plant operation [14][21][30] Market Outlook - Coke: The supply - demand pattern of coke remains unchanged, and the rebound is driven by coking coal supply disturbances. The sustainability of the rebound depends on the coking coal supply. There is a risk of a second bottoming [5][33]. - Coking Coal: The increase in supply uncertainties has led to a low - level rebound, but the rebound space may be limited before the supply - demand situation is reversed. Attention should be paid to the supply side [6][34].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract price of rebar oscillated and rebounded with a daily increase of 0.57%. With supply and demand both weakening, the fundamentals remain unchanged, and the price is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level, focusing on demand performance [4]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil oscillated with a daily increase of 0.55%. The supply is increasing while the demand is weakly stable, and the price is expected to oscillate and stabilize in the short term due to improved market sentiment, also focusing on demand [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore oscillated higher with a daily increase of 0.86%. The supply is under pressure, and the demand is expected to weaken, but the price may oscillate strongly in the short term supported by the logic of narrowing the discount, focusing on the change in molten iron [4]. Summary of Each Section Industry Dynamics - The global manufacturing PMI was 49.2% in May, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month but below 50% for three consecutive months. The US manufacturing PMI continued to decline [6]. - In May, the average monthly working hours of China's construction machinery products decreased year - on - year and month - on - month. The monthly average working hours of excavators were 72.6 hours, and the monthly starting rate was 61% [7]. - On June 3, 2025, Brazil launched an anti - dumping investigation into hot - rolled coils imported from China [8]. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar, hot - rolled coil, Tangshan billet, and Zhangjiagang heavy scrap are provided, along with the prices of 61.5% PB powder, Tangshan iron concentrate powder, freight, SGX swaps, and the Platts index [9]. Futures Market - The closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interests of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore are presented. The rebar contract closed at 2,975 with a 0.57% increase, the hot - rolled coil at 3,092 with a 0.55% increase, and the iron ore at 707.5 with a 0.86% increase [13]. Related Charts - Include charts of steel and iron ore inventories (rebar, hot - rolled coil, 45 - port iron ore, etc.), steel mill production (blast furnace start - up rate, capacity utilization rate, etc.) [15][20][29]. Market Outlook - Rebar: Supply and demand are both weakening. The weekly output decreased by 7.05 tons, and the weekly apparent demand decreased by 19.65 tons. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level, focusing on demand [39]. - Hot - rolled coil: The supply is increasing, with a weekly output increase of 9.20 tons, while the demand is weakly stable, with a weekly apparent demand decrease of 6.01 tons. The price is expected to oscillate and stabilize, paying attention to demand [40]. - Iron ore: The supply is under pressure, and the demand is expected to weaken. The price may oscillate strongly in the short term, focusing on the change in molten iron [41].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 2025 年 6 月 6 日 国债期货 专业研究·创造价值 货币宽松加码，国债期货全面上涨 核心观点 今日国债期货全面上涨。消息面，央行宣布将开展 1 万亿元买断式逆 回购操作，此举加大了中期的流动性投放，释放出数量型货币宽松加码的信 号，提升了国债的投资需求。不过短期内推动市场利率持续下行的动能有所 不足，国债后续走势还是主要看政策面指引，可关注 6 月 18 日陆家嘴论坛 的金融政策。当前关税前景不确定性扰动加深，国内宏观经济指标边际走 弱，货币政策适度宽松的主基调不变，加上当前市场利率隐含的降息预期基 本归零，对未来宽松政策的预期将升温，国债期货底部支撑较强。总的来说， 短期内国债期货震荡整理为主。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明：本人具有中国期货 业协会授予的期货从业资格证 书，期货投资咨询资格证书， 本人承诺以勤勉的职业态度， 独立、客观地出具本报告。本 报 ...

本周值 环比变化 上月末值 本月变化 同期值 同期变化 周度产量 218.46 -7.05 225.51 -7.05 233.07 -14.61 高炉产能利用率（%） 90.65 -0.04 90.69 -0.04 88.14 2.51 表观需求量 229.03 -19.65 248.68 -19.65 231.14 -2.11 钢联建材成交周均值 10.67 0.50 10.17 0.50 12.17 -1.50 总库存 570.48 -10.57 581.05 -10.57 775.60 -205.12 厂内库存 184.86 -1.60 186.46 -1.60 204.85 -19.99 社会库存 385.62 -8.97 394.59 -8.97 570.75 -185.13 螺纹钢周度数据（20250606） 供给 需求 库存 150 200 250 300 350 400 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 螺纹钢周产量 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 70 75 80 85 90 95 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 ...