Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term view of treasury bond futures is expected to be a volatile rebound. The main reasons are the rising tariff risk from the US government, which increases market uncertainty and boosts risk - aversion sentiment, and the moderately loose monetary policy that restricts the upward space of market interest rates. Also, there are still expectations of interest - rate cuts due to the weakening of internal macro - economic indicators [4]. 3. Summary by Related Contents 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2509 variety, the short - term view is volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the intraday view is volatile and bullish. The overall view is a volatile rebound, with the core logic being the rising tariff risk and the increasing risk - aversion sentiment [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is volatile and bullish, the medium - term view is volatile, and the reference view is a volatile rebound. The core logic is that last week treasury bond futures had a volatile correction but rebounded on Friday. The US government's tariff threats increase market uncertainty and risk - aversion sentiment. The moderately loose monetary policy restricts the upward space of market interest rates, and there are still expectations of interest - rate cuts due to the weakening of internal macro - economic indicators in June [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The reference view for thermal coal is "oscillation". As the peak season approaches, bullish factors for thermal coal are accumulating, and the market is in a stalemate with prices remaining stable for now. However, the medium - and long - term supply - demand of thermal coal remains loose, and there is a high possibility that coal prices will not peak during the peak season this summer [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Price and Market Analysis of Thermal Coal - **Driving factors for price stability**: Domestic coal prices are at a low level internationally, leading to a significant decline in the cost - effectiveness of imported coal compared to 2024 and a decrease in import volume. In June, China enters the critical period for peak - summer power consumption, and terminal power plants still have some inventory replenishment needs for the peak season, which provides some support to market sentiment [5]. - **Factors restricting price increase**: The overall pattern of medium - and long - term supply - demand of thermal coal remains loose, and the current port inventory is at a five - year high for the same period, increasing the likelihood that coal prices will not peak during the peak season this summer [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The iron ore 2509 contract is expected to show a weak and volatile trend in the short - term and intraday, and a volatile trend in the medium - term. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA20 line. The core logic is that the supply - demand pattern has weakened, leading to a weak and volatile ore price [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Market Situation and Forecast - The iron ore market is in a situation where supply increases and demand weakens. Overseas ore prices declined weakly during the holiday, steel mills' production is weakening, and iron ore demand is continuously falling. Meanwhile, port arrivals are rising from a low level, overseas miners' shipments remain high, and the supply pressure is large. Although the domestic ore production decline due to inspections, the overall supply is still abundant. The futures price has a large discount, which provides some resistance to the downward movement. Under the game of long and short factors, the ore price will continue to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel [2]. Time - cycle Viewpoints - Short - term (within one week): The iron ore 2509 contract is expected to be weak and volatile [1]. - Medium - term (two weeks to one month): The iron ore 2509 contract is expected to be volatile [1]. - Intraday: The iron ore 2509 contract is expected to be weak and volatile [1].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 6 月 3 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2509 | 震荡 | 下跌 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 基本面预期不佳，焦煤持续走低 | | 焦炭 | 2509 | 震荡 | 下跌 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 偏空因素堆积，焦炭偏弱震荡 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：下跌 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：端午节前，焦煤主力合约加速下挫，不断刷新年内低 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 专业研究·创造价值 专题报告 期权 期权偏度指标如何指导期权交易 摘要 期权的隐含波动率是非常关键的指标，隐含波动率会受到标的 价格涨跌、标的波动率、剩余到期时间、市场情绪等多方面因素的 影响，导致隐含波动率的变化较为复杂。偏度指标能够很好地刻画 隐含波动率的动态结构，一般情况偏度位于一个窄幅的正常区间 内，而当偏度显著偏离正常区间时往往意味着期权隐含波动率发生 了剧烈的非对称波动，此时可以利用偏度策略捕捉该交易机会。 6 月股市面临波动率上升的风险：一方面经济指标可以验证政 策效果，企业也会发布业绩预报；另一方面，7 月初为关税暂缓期 截止时间，6 月下旬可能出现变数。这些不确定性因素将扰动投资 者风险偏好。从目前的信息，市场主要关注企业业绩表现情况、关 税对出口数据的实质性影响、中美关税问题在暂缓期之后如何演变 等重要问题，这些在 6 月之后特别是 6 月下旬将得到体现。因此 6 月下旬之后可能出现期权偏度偏离正常区间的机会，可以利用偏度 策略捕捉该机会。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 电话：0571-8700687 ...

煤焦周度产业数据 2025年5月30日 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778号 库存(万吨) 本周 环比 同比 库存(万吨) 本周 环比 同比 230家独立焦化厂 78.33 5.23 36.56 523家炼焦煤矿 473 25.5 198.6 全样本独立焦化厂 111.38 8.13 42.9 全样本独立焦化厂 846.33 -19.4 -99.2 247家钢厂 654.93 -5.66 93.06 港口 303.09 1.53 69.59 四大港口 217.18 -5.92 3.86 247家钢厂 786.79 -11.96 36.07 总库存 983.49 -3.45 139.83 总库存 2409.21 -4.33 205.06 产能利用率(%) 本周 环比 同比 (%，万吨，车) 本周 环比 同比 230家独立焦化厂 75.08 -0.1 2.16 洗煤厂开工率 61.55 -0.81 - 247家钢厂焦化厂 87.3 0.09 -0.22 洗煤厂日均产量 51.77 -1.02 - 日均产量(万吨) 本周 环比 同比 洗煤厂原煤库存 310.98 -5.5 - 230家独立焦化厂 53. ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 5 月 30 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2508 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 美国经济预期转好，利空金价；地 | | | | | | 偏弱 | | 缘政治频发利多金价 | | 镍 | 2507 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 观望 | 上游强势，下游弱势，镍弱势运行 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：昨日金 ...

策略参考 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 5 月 30 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏强 品种：棕榈油(P) 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏强 核心逻辑：美豆期价反弹趋势持续，但短期在天气改善和播种加速影响下，反弹受限。随着大豆生长步入 对天气高度敏感的时间段，未来一段时间美豆期价仍将继续保持易涨难跌的走势。国内市场供应改善预期 正在逐渐兑现，短期豆粕负基差持续。随着内外联动增强，国内豆类市场震荡偏强，反弹空间受到供应压 制。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The crude oil market is expected to run weakly. In the short - term (within a week), mid - term (two weeks to one month), and intraday, the crude oil 2507 contract shows an oscillating trend, with an intraday weak - oscillating tendency. The overall view is a weak operation due to increased supply expectations [1][5] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Morning Meeting Summary - For the crude oil 2507 contract, the short - term view is oscillating, the mid - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is weakly oscillating. The reference view is a weak operation, and the core logic is that the expected increase in supply leads to the weak - oscillating trend of crude oil [1] 3.2 Price Quotes and Driving Logic of Major Varieties - The intraday view of crude oil (SC) is weakly oscillating, and the mid - term view is oscillating, with a reference view of weak operation. As the US debt crisis approaches in June, the "gray rhino" effect may trigger a new round of negative macro - impacts. OPEC+ oil - producing countries are accelerating production increases, with a general market expectation of an additional 411,000 barrels per day in July. Based on the current monthly increase rate, combined with the previous increase in daily production targets in April, May, and June by about 1 million barrels, the remaining 2.2 million barrels per day of voluntary production cuts may be completely cancelled by the end of October. Under increasing supply pressure, the domestic crude oil futures 2507 contract showed a weak downward trend on Thursday night, with the futures price dropping 1.97% to 452.5 yuan per barrel. It is expected that the domestic crude oil futures price on Friday may maintain a weakly oscillating trend [5]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-05-30 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 偏空因素主导，沪胶震荡偏弱 | | 合成胶 | 2507 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 偏空因素主导，合成胶震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：随着宏观因子逐渐消化，胶市交投逻辑开始转向品种自身的供 ...