Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the given content. 2) Report's Core View - The crude oil market is expected to run strongly. In the short - term (within a week), medium - term (two weeks to a month), and intraday, the crude oil 2511 contract shows an overall trend of shock, with an intraday bias towards strength. The main reason is the enhanced geopolitical risks and the improvement of macro - sentiment [1][5]. 3) Summary by Related Content Price and Trend - The domestic crude oil futures 2511 contract closed slightly up 1.31% to 494.9 yuan/barrel on the night session of Monday, and it is expected to maintain a shock - biased - strong trend on Tuesday [5]. Core Logic - Recently, Ukrainian drones attacked an important crude oil export hub in the Russian Baltic Sea. The port loads about 330,000 barrels of diesel - type fuel and 1.15 million barrels of crude oil per day. Coupled with the positive progress of the Sino - US economic and trade talks, the macro - sentiment has improved, leading to a slight rebound in domestic and foreign crude oil futures prices on the night session of Monday [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Domestic arrivals at 47 ports stood at 23.923 million tons, down 1.806 million tons week - on - week, continuing the downward trend. The largest decrease was in Australian ore, down 1.683 million tons week - on - week, and Brazilian ore also dropped by 0.911 million tons. Non - Australian and non - Brazilian ore rebounded from a low, up 0.788 million tons week - on - week [2]. - Overseas ore shipments rebounded significantly. The total ore shipments from 19 global ports reached 35.731 million tons, up 8.1691 million tons week - on - week, hitting a new high for the year. Shipments from the four major miners all increased, with a combined week - on - week increase of 4.9694 million tons. By region, Australian, Brazilian, and other ores increased by 2.6223 million tons, 3.8599 million tons, and 1.6869 million tons respectively, and most have reached their annual highs [2]. - Based on shipping schedules, the arrivals of Australian and Brazilian ore at domestic ports have bottomed out and rebounded, and overseas ore supply has increased [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Ore Arrivals and Shipments Data - **Arrival Data**: The arrivals at the six northern ports were 12.45 million tons, down 0.75 million tons (-5.68%) week - on - week, 0.559 million tons (-4.30%) month - on - month, and up 1.143 million tons (10.11%) year - on - year. The arrivals at 45 national ports were 23.623 million tons, down 0.857 million tons (-3.50%) week - on - week, 1.637 million tons (-6.48%) month - on - month, and up 2.069 million tons (9.60%) year - on - year. The arrivals at 47 national ports were 23.923 million tons, down 1.806 million tons (-7.02%) week - on - week, 2.527 million tons (-9.55%) month - on - month, and up 1.968 million tons (8.96%) year - on - year [3]. - **Shipment Data**: Australian shipments (original caliber) were 18.369 million tons, up 2.751 million tons (17.61%) week - on - week, 1.96 million tons (11.94%) month - on - month, and down 0.417 million tons (-2.22%) year - on - year. Brazilian shipments (original caliber) were 7.906 million tons, up 3.578 million tons (82.67%) week - on - week, down 1.835 million tons (-18.84%) month - on - month, and down 0.052 million tons (-0.65%) year - on - year. The total shipments from 19 global ports were 35.731 million tons, up 8.1691 million tons (29.64%) week - on - week, up 0.1633 million tons (0.46%) month - on - month, and up 3.3642 million tons (10.39%) year - on - year [3]. 3.2 Related Charts - The report includes charts on domestic port arrivals, global iron ore shipments, shipments from the four major miners, and estimated domestic arrivals of iron ore [4][7][9][11].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The methanol 2601 contract is expected to run strongly, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends being oscillatory, oscillatory, and oscillatory - bullish respectively. The core reason is the rebound in coal prices [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Price Movement and Judgment Criteria - For varieties with night - trading sessions, the starting price is the night - trading closing price; for those without, it's the previous day's closing price. The ending price is the day - trading closing price to calculate the price change [2] - A decline greater than 1% is considered a fall, a decline of 0 - 1% is oscillatory - bearish, a rise of 0 - 1% is oscillatory - bullish, and a rise greater than 1% is a rise [3] - The oscillatory - bullish/oscillatory - bearish judgment only applies to the intraday view, not for short - term and medium - term views [4] Methanol Market Analysis - The supply pressure of methanol at home and abroad is still high, downstream demand is in the off - season, port inventories have increased significantly, and the weak supply - demand structure has led to a downward shift in the price center [5] - Driven by the sharp rise in domestic coal futures prices and the improvement of macro - sentiment, the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract rebounded on the night - trading session of Monday this week, with the futures price rising slightly by 0.80% to 2,405 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory - bullish trend on Tuesday [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content about the report industry investment rating. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of rebar 2601 are oscillatory, oscillatory, and oscillatory and weak respectively, and attention should be paid to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that policy expectations are fermenting, leading to an oscillatory rebound in steel prices [2]. - The rebar futures price oscillated higher due to the enhanced policy expectations from the downward economic data in August and the strong boost from coking coal and coke. However, the supply - demand pattern of rebar remained weak. Although the weekly output decreased, the reduction during the peak season was not strong, and inventory continued to increase, with limited relief of supply pressure. Meanwhile, the demand was poor, with high - frequency indicators running at a low level and no improvement in downstream industries, resulting in insufficient peak - season demand. Currently, steel prices rebounded oscillatory due to policy expectations and strong raw materials, but the fundamentals did not improve in the situation of weak supply and demand, and the sustainability of the upward drive needed to be tracked. In the short - term, steel prices maintained an oscillatory and stable state under the dominance of optimistic sentiment, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [3]. Group 3: Summaries Based on Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2601, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are oscillatory, oscillatory, and oscillatory and weak respectively. The reference is to focus on the support at the MA5 line, and the core logic is the fermentation of policy expectations leading to an oscillatory rebound in steel prices [2]. Market Driving Logic - The economic data in August declined, enhancing policy expectations. Coupled with the strong boost from coking coal and coke, the rebar futures price oscillated higher. The supply - demand pattern of rebar was weak, with limited relief of supply pressure and poor demand, insufficient peak - season demand. Currently, steel prices rebounded oscillatory, but the fundamentals did not improve, and the sustainability of the upward drive needed to be tracked. In the short - term, steel prices were stable and oscillatory, and attention should be paid to the demand [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term, medium - term, and overall view of TL2512 is 'oscillation', with an intraday view of 'oscillation on the weak side'. The core logic is that the long - and medium - term expectation of interest rate cuts still exists, but the possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut is low [1]. - For the TL, T, TF, and TS varieties, the intraday view is 'oscillation on the weak side', the medium - term view is 'oscillation', and the overall reference view is 'oscillation'. The short - term trend of treasury bond futures is mainly low - level oscillation and consolidation [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2512 variety, the short - term view is 'oscillation', the medium - term view is 'oscillation', the intraday view is 'oscillation on the weak side', and the overall view is 'oscillation'. The core logic is that the long - and medium - term expectation of interest rate cuts still exists, but the short - term possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut is low [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Treasury bond futures continued the oscillatory consolidation trend yesterday. The newly released credit data was weak, increasing the market's expectation of loose policies in the fourth quarter, which is beneficial to treasury bonds [5]. - Treasury bond futures are mainly affected by monetary policy expectations and the risk appetite of the stock market. In the long - term, the expectation of interest rate cuts still exists, but in the short - term, the upward momentum of treasury bond futures is not strong due to the low necessity of a comprehensive interest rate cut [5]. - In August, inflation was weak, the credit demand of the real sector was weak, and the consumption growth rate slowed down marginally. The policy side will continue to introduce policies to stabilize demand, and it is expected that monetary and fiscal policies will work together in the fourth quarter [5]. - The risk appetite of the stock market is at a high level, siphoning off bond - purchasing funds and suppressing the demand side of treasury bonds. The year - on - year increase in non - bank deposit data in July and August indicates the stock - bond seesaw effect [5]. - In the short - term, treasury bond futures will mainly be in low - level oscillatory consolidation [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report provides views on the futures of two agricultural products: soymeal and palm oil. For soymeal, the short - term view is "oscillating weakly", and the medium - term view is "oscillating". For palm oil, both the short - term and medium - term views are "oscillating", with an "oscillating weakly" intraday view [5][7]. 3. Summary by Variety Soymeal (M) - **Intraday view**: Oscillating weakly - **Medium - term view**: Oscillating - **Reference view**: Oscillating weakly - **Core logic**: The expected high yield of US soybeans is strengthening, and export demand is decreasing, putting short - term pressure on US soybean futures prices. Before the improvement of Sino - US trade, the impact on domestic soybeans is limited, and the divergence between domestic and international soybean futures prices will continue. The domestic market's trading logic has shifted to the weak industrial chain, with continuous accumulation of soymeal inventory pressure and a continuous negative basis pattern, causing short - term weakness in soymeal futures prices [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **Intraday view**: Oscillating weakly - **Medium - term view**: Oscillating - **Reference view**: Oscillating weakly - **Core logic**: As the benchmark of the oil market, when other varieties fluctuate around trade topics, the palm oil industrial chain environment has weakened. Pay attention to the impact of weather - related factors. In the short term, market sentiment drives the market, and palm oil futures prices are oscillating weakly [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The domestic thermal coal price remained weakly stable this week. The market bearish sentiment still exists, and the opportunity for the coal price to stop falling and stabilize may lie in the winter storage and replenishment of terminal power plants [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Main Variety Price and Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Black Sector - **Intraday and Medium - term View**: The reference view for thermal coal spot is to fluctuate. The core logic is that in early September, domestic temperatures gradually dropped, and the daily coal consumption of power plants decreased seasonally. The demand for thermal coal was in line with market expectations, and the demand for non - power industries did not improve significantly, driving the coal price to operate weakly [4]. - **Supply Side**: The impact of the September 3rd parade on coal mine production has basically faded. After entering the new natural month, the production of thermal coal has gradually returned to the level before the parade, and the main producing area coal mines maintain normal production. The impact of "anti - involution" has not been further released [4]. - **Demand Side**: As of the week of September 4th, the daily coal consumption of power plants in 8 coastal provinces was 2.455 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 87,000 tons; the daily coal consumption of power plants in 17 inland provinces was 3.556 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 103,000 tons. The demand for domestic thermal coal has significantly declined compared with the summer peak [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The short - term and intraday view of Iron Ore 2601 is oscillating and bullish, while the medium - term view is oscillating. The market sentiment has warmed up, and with the pre - holiday restocking expectation, bullish factors support the high - level and bullish operation of ore prices. However, the demand resilience is weakening, and the supply is increasing. The fundamentals are difficult to continuously improve, and the upward driving force of high - valued ore prices is questionable. The subsequent trend is cautiously optimistic, and the performance of steel should be monitored [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Variety Viewpoint Reference - For Iron Ore 2601, the short - term view is oscillating and bullish, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is also oscillating and bullish. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line, and the core logic is that bullish factors are fermenting, leading to the bullish operation of ore prices [2]. Market Driving Logic - Market sentiment has warmed up, and the night - session ore price has risen again. The supply - demand pattern of iron ore continues to run smoothly. The terminal consumption of ore has increased, and with the approaching holiday restocking, the demand is good, providing strong support for ore prices. - The arrival of ore at domestic ports continues to decline, but the shipment of overseas miners has increased significantly on a month - on - month basis, reaching a new high for the single week of the year. According to the shipping schedule, the arrival of Australian and Brazilian ore will increase, and the supply of domestic ore has recovered, so the ore supply will increase. - Overall, although bullish factors support the high - level and bullish operation of ore prices, the demand resilience is weakening, and the supply is rising. The fundamentals are difficult to continuously improve, and the upward driving force of high - valued ore prices is questionable. The subsequent trend is cautiously optimistic, and the performance of steel should be monitored [3].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 9 月 16 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 震荡 | 反内卷预期支撑，焦煤强势运行 | | 焦炭 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 震荡 | 强预期驱动，焦炭重回强势 | 备注： （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：上涨 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：9 月 15 日夜盘，焦煤主力合约强势上 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of the stock index is wide - range oscillation, the medium - term view is upward, and the intraday view is oscillating strongly [1][5]. - The core logic is the game between the short - term profit - taking intention of funds and the long - and medium - term policy positive expectation fermentation [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector | Variety | Short - term | Medium - term | Intraday | Viewpoint Reference | Core Logic Summary | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2512 | Oscillation | Rise | Oscillating strongly | Wide - range oscillation | Short - term profit - taking intention of funds VS long - and medium - term policy positive expectation fermentation [1] | 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **Viewpoints**: The intraday view is oscillating strongly, the medium - term view is upward, and the reference view is wide - range oscillation [5]. - **Core Logic**: Yesterday, each stock index oscillated and sorted in a narrow range. The total turnover of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 230.31 billion yuan, a decrease of 24.52 billion yuan compared with the previous day. The newly released credit data is weak, reflecting the weak financing demand of the real sector. Coupled with the weak inflation data in August and the marginal slowdown of the consumption growth rate, the expectation of introducing policies to stabilize demand in the future is strong, and the policy positive expectation will gradually ferment in the fourth quarter. In terms of funds, the year - on - year increase in non - bank deposits in July and August indicates that the asset allocation direction of social wealth has begun to change, and the stock market attracts incremental funds to flow in; the margin balance also remains high, indicating that leveraged funds are still net buyers. The policy positive expectation and the trend of continuous capital inflow into the stock market still support the stock index in the long and medium term. However, due to the significant increase in the valuation of some stocks in the early stage, there is still the intention of profit - taking by profitable funds, which also leads to short - term technical adjustment pressure. The game between the profit - taking rhythm of funds and the fermentation of policy expectations should be focused on [5].