Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The supply of hot-rolled coils remains at a high level with large pressure, while the demand starts to weaken. Under the situation of strong supply and weak demand, the fundamentals are still not good, and the price of hot-rolled coils continues to be under pressure. It is expected to continue the low-level oscillating operation under the game between expectations and reality, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - The weekly output of hot-rolled coils is 320.38 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 1.08 million tons, and the supply continues to rise and is at a high level within the year. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 92.09%, with a week-on-week increase of 0.09 percentage points [2]. Demand - Affected by holidays, the demand for hot-rolled coils has weakened significantly, with the weekly apparent demand dropping by 23.19 million tons week-on-week. The downstream cold-rolled production remains at a high level, which supports the demand for hot-rolled coils, but the fundamental contradictions are accumulating, and the positive effect is not strong. Overseas risks remain, and external demand is under pressure, so the demand for hot-rolled coils will continue to weaken [7]. Inventory - The total inventory of hot-rolled coils is 365.12 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 10.85 million tons. The in-plant inventory is 84.80 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.70 million tons. The social inventory is 280.32 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 11.55 million tons [2].

Report Summary 1. Core View - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has changed. Steel mill production is stabilizing. This week, the average daily hot metal output of sample steel mills increased slightly week - on - week, while the daily consumption of imported ore decreased. Both remained at high levels, with relatively good ore demand supporting the ore price. However, the steel price is weakly seeking a bottom, and the steel market has entered the off - season, so the incremental space for ore demand is limited, and the positive effect is weakening. Meanwhile, the arrival of port ore and overseas miners' shipments decreased slightly week - on - week, but the overall decline was not large. Overseas miners' supply remained at a high level, domestic ore supply was stable, and ore supply remained high with an undiminished incremental expectation, continuing to suppress the ore price. In short, the ore inventory decreased significantly during the holiday, but the supply - demand pattern did not improve. Supply remained high, and demand is expected to peak. The fundamental outlook is weakening, and the ore price is likely to be under pressure and run weakly. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [2]. 2. Data Summary Inventory - 45 - port iron ore inventory was 14,238.71, a week - on - week decrease of 63.77, a decrease of 22.29 from the end of last month, and a decrease of 436.52 compared with the same period [1]. - 247 steel mills' imported ore inventory was 8,958.98, a week - on - week decrease of 376.07, a decrease of 114.05 from the end of last month, and a decrease of 364.54 compared with the same period [1]. Supply - 45 - port iron ore arrival volume was 2,449.70, a week - on - week decrease of 63.10, an increase of 124.40 from last month, and an increase of 68.80 compared with the same period [1]. - Global 19 - port iron ore shipment volume was 3,050.50, a week - on - week decrease of 137.70, an increase of 125.00 from last month, and a decrease of 76.20 compared with the same period [1]. Demand - 247 steel mills' average daily hot metal output was 245.64, a week - on - week increase of 0.22, an increase of 1.29 from last month, and an increase of 11.14 compared with the same period [1]. - 45 - port average daily ore removal volume was 315.21, a week - on - week decrease of 16.63, a decrease of 12.71 from last month, and an increase of 12.52 compared with the same period [1]. - 247 steel mills' imported ore daily consumption was 303.90, a week - on - week decrease of 0.23, an increase of 2.51 from last month, and an increase of 18.02 compared with the same period [1]. - The weekly average of main - port iron ore transactions was 97.17, a week - on - week increase of 27.39, a decrease of 8.93 from last month, and an increase of 18.44 compared with the same period [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term view of the stock index futures is that they will run with a strong bias in a volatile manner, and the medium - term view is that they will be volatile. The main reason is that the positive signals from the policy side in the short term have stabilized market expectations and formed a strong bottom support for the stock index [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2506, the short - term and medium - term trends are both volatile, and the intraday trend is strongly biased in a volatile manner. The core logic is that the policy - side benefits provide strong support [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **Market Performance**: The stock indexes rose across the board yesterday. The total trading volume of the stock market was 1321.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 183.3 billion yuan compared with the previous day [5]. - **Policy Support**: On May 7, the "one bank, one bureau, one commission" introduced the "package of financial policies to support market stability and expectation stability". The policy side has a good effect on stabilizing market expectations. The central bank's interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts, combined with the fiscal policy, can boost domestic demand and promote the stabilization and recovery of listed companies' performance [5]. - **Capital Level**: The central bank increases the re - loan quota to support consumption and technology; the CSRC supports the role of Huijin's quasi - stabilization fund and promotes the linkage between the performance evaluation of public funds and investors' returns; the financial regulatory authority expands the long - term investment pilot scope of insurance funds and reduces the risk factor of insurance companies' stock investment, which can continuously increase the incremental funds in the stock market and promote the re - evaluation of the stock market value [5]. - **Market Sentiment**: Recently, there have been signs of relaxation in Sino - US tariffs, and market risk appetite has recovered. However, the results of the Sino - US contact from May 9th to 12th need to be noted [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of Iron Ore 2509 is weak and volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the intraday view is also weak and volatile. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the MA5 line, and the core logic is the concern of demand reaching the peak, which puts pressure on the ore price [2] - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has weakened. Although the steel mill production is stable and the ore demand is at a high level, the poor performance of steel prices and the hidden worries of steel demand lead to concerns about the peak of ore demand. Meanwhile, the supply of iron ore has returned to a high level, so the ore price is under pressure and runs weakly, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For Iron Ore 2509, the short - term is weak and volatile, the medium - term is volatile, and the intraday is weak and volatile. The view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line, with the core logic of demand reaching the peak concern and the ore price under pressure [2] Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand situation of iron ore has weakened. The steel mill production is stable, and the ore demand is at a high level, which supports the ore price. However, the poor steel price and the hidden worries of steel demand lead to concerns about the peak of ore demand, and the positive effect is weakening. Overseas miners are actively shipping, the domestic ore supply is stable, the iron ore supply has returned to a high level, and there is still an expectation of increase. Overall, the fundamentals of iron ore are weakening, and the ore price is under pressure and runs weakly, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [3]

策略参考 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 5 月 9 日） 品种观点参考 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏强 核心逻辑：CBOT 大豆期货周四收高，市场寄望于干扰美国谷物和油籽出口的贸易紧张局势能够缓解。随 着市场对进口大豆供应预期的改善，油厂开工率同样存在继续向好的预期，但由于终端库存水平整体不高， 因而现货端不会立即进入供应宽松周期，油厂豆粕累库预计将出现在 5 月下旬。短期豆粕期价维持区间震 荡。 备注： 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) 品种 短期 中期 日内 观点参考 核心逻辑概要 <点击 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-05-08 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 偏空因素占优，沪胶震荡偏弱 | | 合成胶 2507 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 偏空因素占优，合成胶震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡偏弱 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：国内外天胶产区将陆续进入新一轮割胶旺季，原料产出稳步增长，新胶 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report believes that the crude oil market is in a situation where bearish factors prevail, and the crude oil is expected to run weakly with a volatile and downward trend. The main reasons are the increasing supply and the relatively weak demand in the short - term [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Price and Trend - The domestic crude oil futures 2507 contract ended its rebound on Wednesday night, with the price dropping significantly by 2.16% to 448.4 yuan/barrel. It is expected to maintain a volatile and weak trend on Thursday night [5]. - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of crude oil 2507 are all "volatile and weak", and the overall view is "weakly running" [1][5]. Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: OPEC+ oil - producing countries will further accelerate the pace of production increase in June, and the output of US shale oil is also growing steadily, which intensifies the expectation of oil market supply surplus [5]. - Demand: In May, the crude oil demand in the Northern Hemisphere remains in the off - season mode, and the consumption power will gradually increase in June. The refinery operating rate maintains a stable and volatile trend, and the pressure of commercial crude oil inventory accumulation is prominent [5].

宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-05-08 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 甲醇 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 偏空因素占优，甲醇震荡偏弱 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | 备注： 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 < END > 仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 甲醇（MA） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡偏弱 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：虽然国内煤制甲醇生产利润出现回落，但随着节前多套装置陆续重启，供应压力再度回 升并刷新周度产量历史新高。2025 年 4 月 30 日当周，我国甲醇周度产量均值达 200.88 万吨，不仅 月环比大幅增长 18.19 万吨，较去年同期 174.81 万吨，大幅增加 26.07 万吨。目前下游需求有所改 善，甲醇制烯烃期货盘面利润回暖有助于提振港口采购热情，港口库 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A series of financial policies have been introduced by multiple departments to stabilize the market and expectations, including central bank's reserve requirement ratio cuts, interest rate cuts, and the establishment of special re - loans; financial regulatory agencies' incremental policies for real estate and other fields; and the support for the role of Central Huijin by the CSRC [2][15][16] - The Fed has kept interest rates unchanged, but the uncertainty of the economic outlook has increased, and the risks of rising unemployment and inflation have also risen [3][18] - The stock market has shown different trends, with A - shares rising in the short - term and the Hong Kong stock market having a mixed performance. The CSRC plans to expand institutional opening and support listed company mergers and acquisitions [35] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Data - GDP in Q1 2025 had a year - on - year growth rate of 5.4%, the same as the previous quarter and slightly higher than the same period last year. The manufacturing PMI in April 2025 was 49.0%, down from 50.5% in the previous month [1] - The social financing scale increment in March 2025 was 58894 billion yuan, and the new RMB loans of financial institutions in the same month were 36400 billion yuan [1] 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference - Three departments issued a package of financial policies, including the central bank's ten policy measures, the financial regulatory agency's eight incremental policies, and the CSRC's support for Central Huijin [2] - Many regions have implemented the central bank's policy of lowering the provident fund loan interest rate, and Zhuhai has introduced new real - estate policies [2] - The Fed kept the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.5% unchanged, and the market still expects three interest rate cuts this year [3] 3.3 Main Variety Highlights Metals - By the end of April 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves reached 3281.7 billion US dollars, an increase of 4.1 billion US dollars from the end of March, and the gold reserves increased for the sixth consecutive month [5] - Goldman Sachs raised its copper price forecasts for Q2 and Q3 2025, and Argentina's silver production is expected to decline year - on - year [5] Coal, Coke, Steel and Minerals - As of late April, the price of coking coal remained flat, while the prices of coke and rebar increased [6][7] Energy and Chemicals - Russia's crude oil production in April was below the OPEC + quota, and the US refined fuel oil inventory reached its lowest level since November 2023 [8] - The US crude oil inventory decreased last week, and the strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased [8] Agricultural Products - Seven departments jointly issued an implementation plan to improve the overall efficiency of the agricultural science and technology innovation system [12] - The price of rice in Japan has risen for 17 consecutive weeks, and the prices of domestic soybean meal, corn, and wheat have reached new highs [12][13] 3.4 Financial News Compilation Open Market - On May 7, the central bank conducted 195.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, and the net withdrawal of funds was 335.3 billion yuan. Starting from May 8, the central bank adjusted the 7 - day reverse repurchase operation rate from 1.5% to 1.4% [14] Important News and Information - The central bank cut the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points, lowered policy interest rates, and cut the provident fund loan interest rate by 0.25 percentage points [15][16][17] - The financial regulatory agency will improve the real - estate financing system, and the real - estate market investment value is gradually emerging [16] - The CSRC launched a systematic reform of the public fund industry, aiming to shift from "emphasizing scale" to "emphasizing returns" [20] Bond Market Summary - Treasury bond futures closed down across the board, and the yields of bank - to - bank major interest - rate bonds showed obvious differentiation [27] - The yields of most money market interest rates and various bond - related rates declined [28][29] Foreign Exchange Market Express - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed down, and the US dollar index rose. The foreign exchange reserves at the end of April 2025 increased, and gold reserves increased for the sixth consecutive month [31][32] 3.5 Stock Market News - A - shares opened higher but then declined under pressure, with the military industry sector performing strongly. The Hong Kong stock market had a mixed performance, with financial stocks relatively strong [35] - The CSRC plans to expand institutional opening and support listed company mergers and acquisitions. The number of new A - share accounts in April decreased but remained stable [35][36] - Some companies have important events, such as Geely's privatization of Zeekr, and Baidu's performance report shows significant revenue growth [37]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The report believes that the bearish factors of thermal coal are still accumulating, and the market sentiment remains weak. The supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand is expected to continue, and the domestic coal price is expected to remain at a low level [4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog 1. Price and Market Conditions of Thermal Coal - The intraday and medium - term view of thermal coal spot is "oscillation". The bearish factors dominate the market trend, and the coal price is under pressure [4]. 2. Supply - side Analysis - In April, the safety supervision environment in the main domestic production areas was stable, and the thermal coal output remained high. Although the import volume may decline slightly year - on - year, the reduction is limited, and the coal supply pressure remains high [4]. 3. Demand - side Analysis - The demand side of thermal coal faces double negative factors: the seasonal weakening of thermal coal for power generation and the suppression of non - power demand by Sino - US trade frictions. The off - season demand will still suppress the coal price [4]. 4. Inventory Analysis - As of April 29, the total coal inventory of 9 ports in the Bohai Rim reached 3.1075 billion tons. Although the inventory decreased by 257,000 tons week - on - week, it still remained at a high level of 3.1 billion tons and was 726,400 tons higher than the same period last year [4]. 5. Weather Impact - According to the latest forecast of the National Climate Center, in May, except for some areas with slightly lower temperatures than the same period of the year, the temperatures in the rest of the country are close to or higher than the same period of the year. The off - season demand will still suppress the coal price [4].