Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - For gold 2508, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "oscillation and weakening", and the reference view is "wait - and - see" due to the easing of Sino - US relations which is negative for gold prices. For gold in general, the intraday view is "oscillation and weakening", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "wait - and - see". The core logic includes a rapid rebound in futures prices this week indicating strong long - position support, geopolitical tensions in the India - Pakistan conflict which are positive for gold prices, and the Fed's concerns about the economic situation after the May interest - rate meeting [1][3]. - For nickel 2506, the short - term view is "decline", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "oscillation and weakening", and the reference view is "wait - and - see" because of a strong upstream nickel ore market and a weak downstream stainless - steel market. For nickel in general, the intraday view is "oscillation and weakening", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "wait - and - see". The core logic involves the overall pressure on non - ferrous metals after the holiday, strong supply at the industrial level with increased supply costs due to the Indonesian government's PNBP policy, weak demand with slow inventory reduction of stainless steel at a high level, and technical pressure on nickel prices [1][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Movement and Views**: The short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation and weakening", with a reference view of "wait - and - see" [1][3]. - **Core Logic**: This week, the rapid rebound of futures prices shows strong long - position support. The escalation of the India - Pakistan conflict is positive for gold prices. After the Fed's May interest - rate meeting, the Fed maintained the interest rate, expressed concerns about the economic situation, and pointed out increased risks of rising unemployment and inflation. Technically, pay attention to the 3400 mark for London gold and the 800 - yuan mark for Shanghai gold [3]. Nickel - **Price Movement and Views**: The short - term view is "decline", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation and weakening", with a reference view of "wait - and - see" [1][4]. - **Core Logic**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel oscillated during the day yesterday and opened lower at night, breaking through the 124,000 - yuan mark. After the holiday, non - ferrous metals were under pressure, and nickel followed the downward trend. At the industrial level, supply is strong with increased supply costs due to the Indonesian government's PNBP policy, while demand is weak with slow inventory reduction of stainless steel at a high level and strong expectations of production cuts. Technically, after the holiday, nickel prices faced technical pressure when rebounding to the 125,000 - yuan level, and pay attention to the low - point support in December last year [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore 2509 contract is expected to be volatile in the short - and medium - term, and weakly volatile intraday. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the MA20 line, as the fundamental outlook is weakening and the ore price is under pressure [1]. - The iron ore supply - demand pattern has not changed significantly. High supply and demand co - exist, the fundamentals have not improved, and there are concerns about demand reaching its peak. The ore price is under pressure, but the macro - environment is warming. The ore price will continue to run in a weakly volatile manner, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2509 contract, the short - term view is volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the intraday view is weakly volatile. The reference view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA20 line, and the core logic is that the fundamental outlook is weakening and the ore price is under pressure [1]. Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand situation of iron ore shows high supply and demand. Steel mills are actively producing during the peak season, and ore demand is good, supporting the ore price. However, the profit situation of steel mills is changing, and there is an expectation of weakening steel demand, so the incremental space for ore demand is limited. Overseas ore supply remains high, and domestic ore supply is stable, so the supply pressure of iron ore persists. The fundamentals have not improved, and there are concerns about demand reaching its peak. The ore price is under pressure, while the macro - environment is warming. The ore price will continue to run in a weakly volatile manner, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel [2].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 5 月 8 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2510 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 关注 MA20 一线压力 | 预期现实博弈，钢价低位震荡 | 说明： 观点参考 公司地址：浙江省杭州市求是路 8 号公元大厦南裙 1-5 楼。 咨询热线：400 618 1199 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 内外宏观利好虽在释放，但钢材期价冲高回落，并无如期走强，多因螺纹钢供需格局并未好 转，节前补库带来需求放量，周度表需环比大增，但主要下游并未改善，持续性不强，相反供应 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - For both coking coal and coke, the short - term and medium - term views are "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation on the weak side", with an overall "oscillation" approach [1]. - Coking coal has high supply pressure and a weak fundamental situation, which drags down the futures to run at a low level. The follow - up trend of Sino - US trade issues needs attention [5]. - Although there are short - term favorable policies for coke, overseas risks and cost - side pressures from coking coal still exist, and the long - short game is intense, with the futures main contract likely to maintain low - level oscillation [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal (JM) - **Price Information**: The latest quotation of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port is 1035.0 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week flat, and the equivalent futures warehouse receipt cost is about 1008 yuan/ton [5]. - **Market Situation**: On May 7, a series of major favorable policies were introduced, but the domestic main production areas have a stable safety supervision environment, coal production in Shanxi remains high, and the reduction in imports is expected to be limited, resulting in high supply pressure [5]. Coke (J) - **Price Information**: The latest quotation of the quasi - first - grade flat - price at Rizhao Port is 1440 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week flat, and the equivalent futures warehouse receipt cost is about 1583 yuan/ton [6]. - **Market Situation**: A "package" of incremental policies were introduced this week, and after a period of fermentation, the market will refocus on Sino - US trade issues and the commodity's own fundamentals. Although short - term demand is okay, overseas risks and coking coal cost - side pressures still exist [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term view of the stock index futures is that the index will fluctuate strongly, and the medium - term view is that it will fluctuate. Policy - positive signals can well stabilize market expectations and form strong bottom support for the index [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2506, the short - term and medium - term trends are both fluctuating, and the intraday trend is fluctuating strongly. The core logic is that policy benefits provide strong support [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Yesterday, each stock index rose first and then fell, closing slightly higher. The total stock market turnover was 1505.1 billion yuan, an increase of 140.6 billion yuan from the previous day. After the holiday, the trading volume continued to increase, indicating that funds flowed back to the stock market and market risk appetite significantly recovered [5]. - A series of major policies were announced at the press conference. The central bank cut interest rates and the reserve ratio, set up a 500 - billion - yuan service consumption and pension re - loan, and increased the re - loan quota for scientific and technological innovation and technological transformation by 300 billion yuan. The CSRC emphasized stabilizing stock market expectations, supporting Central Huijin to play the role of a quasi - stabilization fund, and promoting the reform of public funds. The CBIRC will expand the long - term investment pilot scope of insurance funds, introduce more incremental funds into the market, adjust and optimize regulatory rules, and reduce the risk factor of insurance companies' stock investment [5]. - The market is concerned about the China - US talks on tariffs from May 9th to 12th. Although the current market expectation is positive, the actual result may fall short of expectations [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term view of TL2506 is to oscillate, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the intraday view is to oscillate strongly, with an overall view of range - bound oscillation. The core logic is that the expectation of interest rate cuts has been fulfilled, and it will mainly be in short - term oscillatory consolidation [1]. - For varieties such as TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is to oscillate strongly, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the reference view is range - bound oscillation. After the implementation of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts, the policy expectation is fulfilled in the short term, and it is expected that treasury bond futures will remain in oscillatory consolidation in the short term [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2506, short - term: oscillate; medium - term: oscillate; intraday: oscillate strongly; view reference: range - bound oscillation; core logic: the expectation of interest rate cuts has been fulfilled, and short - term oscillatory consolidation is the main trend [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, and TS. The intraday view is to oscillate strongly, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the reference view is range - bound oscillation. The core logic is that treasury bond futures have been in narrow - range oscillatory consolidation in the past two days. The central bank announced a series of policies such as interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts. It lowered the deposit reserve ratio by 0.5 percentage points, releasing 1 trillion in long - term liquidity, and lowered the 7 - day reverse repurchase rate by 10BP, which is expected to drive the LPR down by 10BP. Due to the weakening of the domestic manufacturing PMI in April and the strong performance of the RMB exchange rate, the conditions for interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts were met. The price of treasury bond futures has already implied an expected interest rate cut of about 10BP since early April. With the implementation of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts, the policy expectation is fulfilled in the short term, and short - term oscillatory consolidation is expected [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On May 7, the coke main contract closed at 1,507 yuan/ton, down 0.66% intraday. After the domestic policy expectations are fulfilled, although the short - term demand for coke is okay, there are still overseas risks and coking coal cost - side pressures. The long - short game of coke remains intense, and the futures main contract may maintain low - level fluctuations [5][33]. - On May 7, the coking coal main contract closed at 908 points, down 0.77% intraday. The domestic policy expectations are fulfilled, but the fundamentals of coking coal are still weak, dragging the futures to run at a low level. Attention should be paid to the future trend of Sino - US trade issues [6][34]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - On May 7, the central bank announced three major measures: reducing the reserve requirement ratio, cutting interest rates, and lowering the provident fund interest rate, providing heavy - weight credit policy support for the property market. The reserve requirement ratio was cut by 0.5 percentage points, expected to provide about 1 trillion yuan of long - term liquidity to the market. The policy interest rate was cut by 0.1 percentage points, and the personal housing provident fund loan interest rate was cut by 0.25 percentage points [8]. - On May 7, the price of coking coal in the Linfen Anze market remained stable. The ex - factory price of low - sulfur main coking clean coal A9, S0.5, V20, G85 was 1,290 yuan/ton (cash and tax included) [9]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Rizhao Port's quasi - first - class coking coal for flat - position delivery was 1,440 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week flat. The price of Qingdao Port's quasi - first - class coking coal for out - of - warehouse delivery was 1,320 yuan/ton, down 1.49% compared to the previous price. The price of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port was 1,035 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week flat. The price of Australian - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,300 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week flat. The price of Shanxi - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,400 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week flat [13]. 3.3 Futures Market - On May 7, the closing price of the coke futures main contract was 1,507 yuan/ton, down 0.66%, with a trading volume of 24,881 and an open interest of 45,157 hands, an increase of 3,280 hands from the previous trading day. The closing price of the coking coal futures main contract was 908 yuan/ton, down 0.77%, with a trading volume of 342,798 and an open interest of 360,120 hands, an increase of 16,714 hands from the previous trading day [14]. 3.4 Related Charts - The report provides charts on coke inventory, coking coal inventory, and other aspects, including the inventory of 230 independent coking plants, 247 steel mill coking plants, port coke, and coking coal, as well as charts on Shanghai terminal wire and screw procurement volume, domestic steel mill production, coal washing plant production, and coking plant operation [15][21][27] 3.5 Future Outlook - The situation of coke and coking coal futures is similar to the core viewpoints. For coke, the long - short game remains intense, and the futures main contract may maintain low - level fluctuations. For coking coal, the fundamentals are weak, dragging the futures to run at a low level [5][6][33]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Rebar**: The main contract price of rebar fluctuated with a daily increase of 0.19%. The supply - demand pattern is stable, with pre - holiday demand surging and weekly apparent demand increasing significantly. However, the improvement may not be sustainable, and supply remains high. The steel price is under pressure, but macro - level positive factors have been realized. The price is expected to continue low - level oscillatory movement, and demand changes should be monitored [4][37]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The main contract price of hot - rolled coil oscillated with a daily increase of 0.34%. Current demand is acceptable, supporting a stable supply - demand pattern. But supply is high, and demand is expected to weaken. The price is under pressure, and with overseas risks and the expectation of reduction policies, it is expected to maintain low - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to steel mill production [4][38]. - **Iron ore**: The main contract price of iron ore had a wide - range oscillation with a daily increase of 0.35%. Strong demand supports the ore price, but the supply - demand pattern has not improved due to high supply and concerns about demand peaking. The price is under pressure, but with improved market sentiment, the downward drive is weak. It is expected to continue low - level oscillation, and the performance of finished steel should be monitored [4][39]. 3. Summary by Directory Industry Dynamics - **Central bank's measures for the real estate market**: The central bank cut the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points, injecting about 1 trillion yuan of long - term liquidity into the market. It also lowered the policy interest rate by 0.1 percentage points and the personal housing provident fund loan interest rate by 0.25 percentage points [6]. - **New contract signing plans of nine major construction central enterprises**: In 2024, they completed a total of 16.59 trillion yuan in new contract signings, and the plan for 2025 is 17.06 trillion yuan. The 2024 revenue was 7.11 trillion yuan, and the 2025 plan is 7.28 trillion yuan [7]. - **Australia's anti - dumping sunset review investigation**: Australia launched a second anti - dumping sunset review investigation on Chinese steel bars with a diameter of 50 mm or less on May 5, 2025 [8]. Spot Market - **Black metal spot quotes**: The report provides spot prices and price changes of rebar, hot - rolled coil, billet, scrap, iron ore powder, and related indices [9]. Futures Market - **Futures prices of main contracts**: It shows the closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore futures contracts [11]. Related Charts - **Steel inventory**: Includes charts of rebar inventory (weekly changes and total inventory), hot - rolled coil inventory (weekly changes, total inventory), and related historical data [14][16][24]. - **Iron ore inventory**: Covers charts of national 45 - port iron ore inventory (including inventory changes and seasonal data), 247 - steel mill iron ore inventory, and domestic mine iron concentrate powder inventory [21][22][25]. - **Steel mill production**: Presents charts of 247 - steel mill blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate, 87 - independent electric furnace operating rate, 247 - steel mill profitable steel mill ratio, and 75 - building material independent electric arc furnace steel mill profit and loss situation [31][33][35]. Market Outlook - **Rebar**: Supply is at a high level, and although pre - holiday demand increased, its sustainability is uncertain. With macro - level positives, the price will continue low - level oscillation, and demand changes should be watched [37]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: Supply and demand are both rising, but demand is expected to weaken. With overseas risks and reduction policy expectations, the price will maintain low - level oscillation, and steel mill production should be focused on [38]. - **Iron ore**: Demand is strong, but supply is also high, and there are concerns about demand peaking. With improved market sentiment, the price will continue low - level oscillation, and the performance of finished steel should be monitored [39].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract showed a pattern of increasing volume and open interest, rising and then falling, and closing flat. The price closed slightly up 0.00% at 14,810 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 month spread discount narrowed to 195 yuan/ton. After the holiday, the supply pressure in domestic and foreign natural rubber producing areas increased, but domestic tire enterprises saw an increase in the motivation of operating rate. With both supply and demand increasing, the rubber price maintained a stable and volatile pattern [6]. - **Methanol**: On Wednesday, the domestic methanol futures 2509 contract showed a pattern of increasing volume and open interest, rising and then falling, and slightly closing up. The price closed slightly up 0.09% at 2,239 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 month spread discount narrowed to 74 yuan/ton. After the holiday, the improvement in the supply - demand structure of the methanol market was limited, the destocking of social inventory might be coming to an end, and the external supply was expected to increase. Considering the potential macro - risks, methanol maintained a weak pattern [6]. - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, the domestic crude oil futures 2506 contract showed a pattern of increasing volume and open interest, rebounding from an oversold situation, and closing sharply up. The price closed sharply up 2.40% at 460.8 yuan/barrel. Although the US non - farm payroll data and price index showed signs of improvement, leading to an increase in the expected number of Fed rate cuts throughout the year, the US debt crisis in June was approaching, and the "gray rhino" effect might trigger a new round of negative macro - impacts. At the same time, OPEC + oil - producing countries accelerated the production increase rhythm, and the crude oil demand was expected to be weak. With bearish factors dominant, the continued rebound of domestic and foreign crude oil futures prices was expected to face greater pressure [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Rubber**: As of May 4, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 614,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5,500 tons or 0.9%. The bonded area inventory was 85,000 tons, an increase of 4.3%; the general trade inventory was 529,200 tons, an increase of 0.38%. The inbound rate of sample bonded warehouses for natural rubber in Qingdao increased by 2.17 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.33 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 1.16 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 2.41 percentage points. As of the week of April 25, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 65.79%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.65% and a year - on - year increase of 2.29 percentage points. The operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 72.36%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.84 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.64 percentage points. In April 2025, the sales volume of heavy - duty trucks in China was about 90,000, a month - on - month decrease of 19% and a year - on - year increase of about 9.4% compared with 82,300 in the same period last year. From January to April this year, the cumulative sales volume of heavy - duty trucks in China was about 355,000, showing a year - on - year flat trend. In April 2025, the inventory warning index of Chinese automobile dealers was 59.8%, a year - on - year increase of 0.4 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 5.2 percentage points [9][10]. - **Methanol**: As of the week of April 25, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 80.39%, a week - on - week increase of 0.17%, a month - on - month increase of 4.72%, and a year - on - year increase of 6.14%. The average weekly output of methanol in China reached 1.899 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 51,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9,200 tons, and a significant increase of 210,100 tons compared with 1.6889 million tons in the same period last year. The operating rate of domestic formaldehyde was maintained at 29.27%, a week - on - week increase of 0.63%. The operating rate of dimethyl ether was maintained at 7.44%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.62%. The operating rate of acetic acid was maintained at 85.80%, a week - on - week increase of 1.68%. The operating rate of MTBE was maintained at 51.09%, a week - on - week significant decrease of 5.63%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 79.45%, a week - on - week increase of 1.11 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 5.21 percentage points. The futures market profit of domestic methanol to olefin was 239 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 87 yuan/ton and a month - on - month significant increase of 572 yuan/ton. The port methanol inventory in East and South China was maintained at 348,600 tons, a week - on - week significant decrease of 101,600 tons, a month - on - month significant decrease of 256,800 tons, and a significant decrease of 123,900 tons compared with the same period last year. The inland methanol inventory in China totaled 309,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,600 tons or 0.83%, a month - on - month decrease of 35,600 tons, and a significant decrease of 55,600 tons compared with 365,400 tons in the same period last year [11][12][14]. - **Crude Oil**: As of the week of April 25, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the US was 483, a week - on - week increase of 2 and a decrease of 23 compared with the same period last year. The average daily US crude oil production was 13.46 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 0.2 million barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 0.36 million barrels per day. As of the week of April 18, 2025, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 443.104 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 244,000 barrels and a significant decrease of 10.521 million barrels compared with the same period last year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, was 25.019 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 86,000 barrels; the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory reached 397.5 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 468,000 barrels. The US refinery operating rate was maintained at 88.1%, a week - on - week increase of 1.8 percentage points, a month - on - month increase of 1.1 percentage points, and a year - on - year decrease of 0.4 percentage points. Since April 2025, the international crude oil futures prices have shown a weak downward trend, and the market's long - buying power has continued to decline. As of April 29, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions of WTI crude oil were maintained at 177,209 contracts, a week - on - week significant increase of 6,254 contracts and a significant increase of 10,622 contracts or 6.38% compared with the March average of 166,587 contracts. At the same time, as of April 29, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were maintained at 106,722 contracts, a week - on - week significant decrease of 6,080 contracts and a significant decrease of 79,918 contracts or 42.82% compared with the March average of 186,640 contracts. Overall, the net long positions in the WTI crude oil futures market increased significantly week - on - week, while those in the Brent crude oil futures market decreased significantly week - on - week [14][15]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,700 yuan/ton | +200 yuan/ton | 14,810 yuan/ton | -5 yuan/ton | -110 yuan/ton | +5 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,460 yuan/ton | -32 yuan/ton | 2,239 yuan/ton | +20 yuan/ton | +221 yuan/ton | -20 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 423.6 yuan/barrel | +0.1 yuan/barrel | 460.8 yuan/barrel | +1.9 yuan/barrel | -37.2 yuan/barrel | -1.9 yuan/barrel | [17] 3.3 Relevant Charts - **Rubber**: The report provides charts on rubber basis, 5 - 9 month spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [18][20][22][25][27][29]. - **Methanol**: The report provides charts on methanol basis, 5 - 9 month spread, domestic port methanol inventory, inland social methanol inventory, methanol to olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [30][32][34][36][38][40]. - **Crude Oil**: The report provides charts on crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [43][45][47][49][51][53].

有色金属 姓名：何彬 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F03090813 2025 年 5 月 7 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 有色分化，铝增仓下行明显 投资咨询证号：Z0019840 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：hebin@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 有色金属 | 日报 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 | 日报 1. 产业动态 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 6 请务必阅读文末免责条款 请务必阅读文末免责条款部分 核心观点 沪铜 昨夜铜价增仓上行，主力期价突破 7.8 万关口，今日铜价冲高回 落。短期铜价冲高回落，主力期价在 7.8 万一线仍有较强的技术压 力。产业层面，电解铜低库存格局给予近月较强的支撑，基差月差 持续走强。短期可持续关注 7.8 万关口多空博弈，也可关注月间正 套 ...