Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract and synthetic rubber futures 2507 contract are expected to run strongly on May 9, 2025, with an intraday view of oscillating strongly and a medium - term view of oscillating weakly [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Market Situation**: On the night of Thursday, the 2509 contract of Shanghai rubber futures showed an oscillating and stabilizing trend, with the futures price slightly rising 0.07% to 14,705 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillating and strong trend on Friday [5]. - **Core Logic**: Domestic and foreign natural rubber producing areas will enter a new round of tapping seasons, and new rubber supply will gradually increase. After the May Day holiday, the downstream tire industry's operating rate has rebounded, and procurement demand is expected to increase. However, due to the lack of continuous improvement in the supply - demand structure and a slight increase in rubber inventories in Qingdao Free Trade Zone, it is difficult to support the continuous strengthening of post - holiday rubber prices. After the bearish sentiment is digested, the futures price shows a stabilizing trend [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Market Situation**: On the night of Thursday, the 2507 contract of domestic synthetic rubber futures showed an oscillating and strong trend, with the futures price rising 1.41% to 11,510 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillating and strong trend on Friday [7]. - **Core Logic**: During the May Day holiday, OPEC + oil - producing countries agreed to continue to accelerate production in June, bringing new supply pressure to the crude oil market. After the bearish sentiment in the crude oil market is digested, the oil price shows an oscillating and stabilizing trend, driving the synthetic rubber futures price to rise [7].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The methanol 2509 contract is expected to maintain a slightly bullish and volatile trend on Friday, May 9, 2025 [1][5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Price and Trend - The methanol 2509 contract showed a stable and volatile trend in the night session on Thursday, with the futures price slightly rising 0.14% to 2223 yuan/ton [5]. Supply - Although the production profit of domestic coal - to - methanol has declined, with multiple sets of devices restarting before the holiday, the supply pressure has risen again, and the weekly production reached a new high. In the week of April 30, 2025, the average weekly methanol production in China was 200.88 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.19 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 26.07 million tons compared to 174.81 million tons last year [5]. Demand - The downstream demand has improved, and the recovery of the futures market profit of methanol - to - olefins has boosted the purchasing enthusiasm at ports, resulting in a smooth reduction of port inventories [5]. Time - frame Views - Short - term view (within a week): The methanol 2509 contract is in a volatile state [1]. - Medium - term view (two weeks to one month): The methanol 2509 contract is in a slightly bearish and volatile state [1][5]. - Intraday view: The methanol 2509 contract is in a slightly bullish and volatile state [1][5].

运筹帷幄 决胜千里 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货品种套利数据日报（2025 年 5 月 9 日） 一、动力煤 | 商品 | | | 动力煤（元/吨） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 基差 | 5月-1月 | 9月-1月 | 9月-5月 | | 2025/05/08 | -166.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/05/07 | -161.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/05/06 | -153.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/04/30 | -151.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/04/29 | -149.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 450 550 650 750 850 950 1050 动力煤基差 基差（右） 动力煤现货价:秦皇岛 期货结算价(活跃合约) :动力煤 www.bcqhgs.com 1 杭州市求是路8号公元大厦东南裙楼1 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 资讯早班车 资讯早班车-2025-05-09 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20250416 | 2025/03 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 5.40 | 5.40 | 5.30 | | 20250430 | 2025/04 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.00 | 50.50 | 50.40 | | 20250430 | 2025/04 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 | % | 50.40 | 50.80 | 51.20 | | | | 动 | | | | | | 20250430 | 2025/04 | 财新 PMI:制造业 | % | 50.40 | 51.20 | 51.40 | | 20250506 | 2025/04 | 财新 PMI:服务业经营 活动指数 | % | 50.70 | 51.90 | 52.50 | | | | 社会融资规模增量:当 | ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 5 月 9 日） 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2506 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏强 | 区间震荡 主 | 降息预期兑现，短期震荡整理为 | 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：区间震荡 核心逻辑：昨日国债期货均小幅震荡反弹。中长期的角度看，外部环境变数较大，需要稳定的内部环 境来对冲，宏观政策将逐渐加码，央行实施适度宽松的货币政策，国债中长 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The power coal market is dominated by bearish factors, and domestic coal prices are expected to remain low. The supply - demand imbalance is likely to continue, with high supply and weak demand putting pressure on coal prices [5]. 3. Summary by Key Points Supply - Side - In April, the safety supervision environment in major domestic production areas was stable, and power coal production remained at a high level. Although imports may decline slightly year - on - year, the reduction is limited, and the coal supply pressure remains high [5]. Demand - Side - The demand side of power coal faces double negative factors: the seasonal weakness of thermal coal demand and the suppression of non - electric demand by Sino - US trade frictions. The pattern of strong supply and weak demand is expected to continue [5]. Inventory - As of April 29, the total coal inventory of 9 ports in the Bohai Rim reached 3.1075 billion tons. Although there was a slight de - stocking of 25,700 tons week - on - week, it remained at a high level of 3.1 billion tons and was 726,400 tons higher than the same period last year [5]. Weather - According to the latest forecast of the National Climate Center, in May, except for some areas with slightly lower temperatures than normal, the rest of the country has temperatures close to or higher than normal. The off - season demand will continue to suppress coal prices [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term and medium - term views of both coking coal and coke are "oscillation", and the intraday views are "oscillation and weakening". The overall view is to adopt an oscillation mindset [1]. - For coking coal, due to fundamental drag, it is running weakly. For coke, with the collapse of the cost side, it is oscillating downward [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal (JM) - **Price and Market Conditions**: On the night session of May 8, the main coking coal contract continued to decline, hitting a new low for the year, and the moving averages maintained a short - position arrangement, indicating a weak futures market atmosphere. The latest quotation of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port in the spot market is 1030.0 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 0.5%, and the equivalent futures warehouse receipt cost is about 1003 yuan/ton [5]. - **Policy and Supply**: On May 7, a series of major favorable policies were introduced, and market policy expectations were fulfilled. However, the safety supervision environment in domestic main production areas is stable, Shanxi's coal production remains high, and although imports have decreased slightly year - on - year, the reduction is expected to be limited. The supply - side pressure of coking coal remains high [5]. - **Outlook**: With the release of domestic policy expectations, the market returns to fundamental trading. Currently, the supply of coking coal is expected to be loose, driving the futures to run weakly. Attention should be paid to the future trend of Sino - US trade issues [5]. Coke (J) - **Price and Market Conditions**: On the night session of May 8, the main coke contract continued to be weak, hitting a new low for the year, and the market atmosphere has not yet reversed. The latest quotation of quasi - first - grade coke at Rizhao Port in the spot market is 1440 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week, and the equivalent futures warehouse receipt cost is about 1583 yuan/ton [6]. - **Policy and Supply - Demand**: This week, a "package" of incremental policies were introduced in China, and market policy expectations were fulfilled. After a period of fermentation, the market will refocus on Sino - US trade issues and the commodity's own fundamentals. Currently, coke maintains a pattern of increasing both supply and demand, with good demand performance and short - term fundamentals being acceptable [6]. - **Outlook**: With the implementation of domestic policy benefits, although the short - term demand for coke is acceptable, overseas risks and cost - side pressure from coking coal still exist. The long - short game of coke remains fierce, and the main futures contract is expected to maintain low - level oscillation [6].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 5 月 9 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2508 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 观望 | 中美关系趋于缓和，利空金价 | | 镍 | 2506 | 下跌 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 观望 | 上游镍矿强势，下游不锈钢弱势 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 核心逻辑：昨日金价冲高回落，午后持续跳水，夜盘延续颓势。纽约金再度回落至 3300 美元关口， 对应沪金 780 元关口。消息面上，5 月 8 日凌晨美联储议息会议结束，整体表现鹰派。美元指数触底 回升，金价冲高回落；5 月 8 日新华社华 ...

本周值 环比变化 上月末值 本月变化 同期值 同期变化 周度产量 223.53 -9.85 229.11 -5.58 230.61 -7.08 高炉产能利用率（%） 92.09 0.09 91.60 0.49 87.67 4.42 表观需求量 213.90 -77.81 259.94 -46.04 261.88 -47.98 钢联建材成交周均值 10.55 -0.68 12.13 -1.58 13.23 -2.68 总库存 653.63 9.63 702.33 -48.70 883.27 -229.64 厂内库存 188.27 15.11 193.73 -5.46 222.62 -34.35 社会库存 465.36 -5.48 508.60 -43.24 660.65 -195.29 螺纹钢周度数据（20250509） 供给 需求 库存 150 200 250 300 350 400 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 螺纹钢周产量 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 70 75 80 85 90 95 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 1 ...

1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 5 月 9 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2510 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线压力 | 供需格局走弱，钢价弱势寻底 | 说明： ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 螺纹钢供需格局有所走弱，螺纹钢产量环比下降，供应迎来收缩，但假期因素扰动下需求走弱 更加明显，周度表需环比大降，继而导致库存开始增加，关注持续性，且下游行业并未改善，需求 仍会季节性走弱，继续拖累螺纹基本面，钢价仍将承压弱势震荡寻底，关注需求表现情况。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投 ...