投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 5 月 7 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 供需格局平稳，矿价低位震荡 | 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需格局平稳运行，钢厂生产积极，矿石需求表现强劲给予矿价支撑，但存触顶担忧，利 好效应趋弱。与此同时，海外矿石供应高位运行，而内矿供应相对平稳，整体铁矿石供应维持高位。 目前来看，铁矿石需求表现强劲，给予矿价支撑，但 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The reference view for power coal is "oscillation". The bearish factors for power coal are still piling up, and the market sentiment remains weak. The supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand is expected to continue, and domestic coal prices are likely to remain at a low level [4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content Market Situation - The power coal market is dominated by bearish factors, and the supply - demand situation shows no significant reversal in the short term [4]. Supply - side Factors - In April, the safety supervision environment in the main domestic production areas was stable, and the power coal output remained high. Although the import volume may decline slightly year - on - year, the reduction is limited, and the coal supply pressure remains high [4]. Demand - side Factors - The demand side of power coal faces double negative impacts: the seasonal weakening of thermal coal demand and the suppression of non - thermal coal demand by Sino - US trade frictions. The off - season demand will continue to suppress coal prices [4]. Inventory Situation - As of April 29, the total coal inventory of 9 ports in the Bohai Rim reached 31.075 million tons. Although there was a slight weekly de - stocking of 257,000 tons, it remained at a high level of 31 million tons, and the inventory was 7.264 million tons higher than the same period last year [4]. Weather Factor - According to the latest forecast of the National Climate Center, in May, except for some areas with slightly lower temperatures than the same period of the year, the temperatures in the rest of the country are close to or higher than the same period of the year. The off - season demand will still suppress coal prices [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - For the螺纹2510 variety, the short - term and mid - term trends are expected to be in a range - bound state, while the intraday trend is expected to be slightly bullish. It is recommended to pay attention to the support level of MA5. The core logic is that market sentiment has improved, leading to a slightly bullish and range - bound movement of steel prices [2]. - The supply - demand pattern of rebar is running stably. Before the holiday, demand increased, and the weekly apparent demand increased significantly compared to the previous period, improving the supply - demand pattern. However, the sustainability needs to be monitored, and supply remains at a relatively high level. The fundamental situation has not improved substantially, and steel prices are still prone to pressure. The positive factor is that China - US trade negotiations have started, which has improved market sentiment. With short - term positive factors, rebar prices are expected to move in a slightly bullish and range - bound manner. Attention should be paid to changes in demand [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the螺纹2510 variety, the short - term trend is range - bound, the mid - term trend is range - bound, and the intraday trend is slightly bullish. The reference view is to pay attention to the support level of MA5, and the core logic is the improvement of market sentiment and the slightly bullish and range - bound movement of steel prices [2]. Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of rebar is stable. Pre - holiday demand increased, and the weekly apparent demand increased significantly, improving the supply - demand pattern, but its sustainability is uncertain. Supply remains at a relatively high level, and the fundamentals have not improved substantially, so steel prices are still under pressure. The start of China - US trade negotiations has improved market sentiment, and rebar prices are expected to move in a slightly bullish and range - bound manner. Attention should be paid to demand changes [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View - For both coking coal and coke futures contracts 2509, the short - term and medium - term views are "sideways", and the intraday view is "sideways to weak". The overall view is a sideways trading approach [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal (JM) - **Price Trend**: The price of coking coal has been continuously declining, and it is expected to maintain a weak sideways movement after the holiday [5]. - **Supply**: As of the week ending May 2, the daily average output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 80.4 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.7 million tons, with positive growth for 6 consecutive weeks and 5.7 million tons higher than the same period last year. In April, the safety supervision environment in the main domestic production areas was stable, and Shanxi's coal production remained high. Although the import volume decreased slightly year - on - year, the reduction was expected to be limited, so the supply pressure remained high [5]. - **Demand**: In the week ending May 2, the total daily average output of coke from coking plants and steel mills was 114.41 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.09 million tons. Due to Sino - US trade frictions and the sluggish performance of the real estate and infrastructure sectors, the long - term demand for coking coal is still a concern [5]. Coke (J) - **Price Trend**: The main futures contract of coke maintains a low - level sideways movement, with intense multi - empty game [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Compared with coking coal, the short - term fundamentals of coke are acceptable. Although the molten iron output remains high and the short - term demand is okay, affected by overseas risks and cost pressure from coking coal, the market sentiment is not optimistic [6]. - **Macro Factors**: Since April, Sino - US trade frictions have been反复, and there is strong uncertainty about future tariff disputes. At the same time, domestic demand - boosting policies are expected to be introduced, such as the Politburo meeting on April 25 proposing more active macro - policies [6].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 资讯早班车 资讯早班车-2025-05-06 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20250416 | 2025/03 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 5.40 | 5.40 | 5.30 | | 20250430 | 2025/04 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.00 | 50.50 | 50.40 | | 20250430 | 2025/04 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 | % | 50.40 | 50.80 | 51.20 | | | | 动 | | | | | | 20250430 | 2025/04 | 财新 PMI:制造业 | % | 50.40 | 51.20 | 51.40 | | 20250403 | 2025/03 | 财新 PMI:服务业经营 | % | 51.90 | 51.40 | 52.70 | | | | 活动指数 | | | | | | ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The methanol 2509 contract is expected to maintain a volatile and stable trend. The short - term view is volatile and strong, the medium - term view is volatile and weak, and the overall reference view is a strong - side operation [1][5]. 3) Summary by Related Content a. Price Movement and Core Logic - The methanol 2509 contract shows a volatile trend in the short - term, is volatile and weak in the medium - term, and is volatile and strong on the day. The overall view is a strong - side operation because the positive factors prevail [1]. - The high production profit of domestic coal - to - methanol this year has led to high methanol operating rates and weekly output during the spring maintenance period, resulting in significant internal supply pressure. However, the slow loading of methanol cargoes in the Middle East has alleviated the pressure on domestic port methanol inventories, and the inventory reduction rhythm is smooth. The profit of downstream olefin futures has recovered, and the demand factor is gradually increasing. After the May Day holiday, affected by the US's increased economic sanctions on Iran and a slight rise in natural gas futures prices, the domestic methanol 2509 futures contract is expected to maintain a volatile and stable trend [5]. b. Price Calculation Notes - For varieties with night trading, the starting price is the night - trading closing price; for those without night trading, it is the previous day's closing price. The ending price is the day - trading closing price on the same day, and the price increase or decrease is calculated based on these [2]. - A decline of more than 1% is considered a fall, a decline of 0 - 1% is a volatile and weak trend, an increase of 0 - 1% is a volatile and strong trend, and an increase of more than 1% is a rise [3]. - The volatile and strong/weak trends only apply to the intraday view, and no distinction is made for the short - term and medium - term views [4].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-05-06 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 多空分歧加剧，沪胶震荡偏弱 | | 合成胶 2507 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 偏弱 | 下跌 | 弱势运行 | 油价大幅下跌，合成胶弱势走低 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡偏弱 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：国内外天胶产区将陆续进入新一轮割胶旺季，原料产出稳步增长，新胶 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 5 月 6 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线压力 | 基本面在走弱，矿价承压运行 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 假期 SGX 铁矿石掉期触底回升，录得小幅下跌，而铁矿石供需格局节前有所走弱，钢厂生产积 极，矿石终端消耗高位持续回升，需求表现强劲给予矿价支撑，但存触顶担忧，利好效应趋弱。与此 同时，海外供应迎来显著回升，且内矿供应高位企稳，整体铁矿石供应重回高位。综上，铁矿石供需 两端均在 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal futures price has a risk of giving back the accumulated risk premium due to the expected easing of Sino - US trade tensions. After giving back the trade and supply risk premiums, the internal - external linkage is expected to be restored. The soybean meal futures price is expected to be strongly volatile in the short - term [6]. - The palm oil price is under pressure due to the expected increase in Malaysian palm oil inventory at the end of April and weak demand. The decline in international oil prices also affects the outlook for Indonesian biofuel demand. With the opening of the import profit window, domestic palm oil inventory is rising, and its short - term trend is weakly volatile [8]. 3. Summary by Variety 3.1 Soybean Meal (M) - **Time - cycle Views**: Short - term (within a week): oscillating; Medium - term (two weeks to one month): oscillating; Intraday: strongly volatile; Reference view: strongly volatile [7]. - **Core Logic**: The short - term trend is affected by factors such as import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, North American spring sowing weather, oil refinery operation rhythm, and stocking demand. After the holiday, the soybean meal futures price was weaker than the external market, and it is expected to be strongly volatile in the short - term due to the expected easing of Sino - US trade tensions and the restoration of internal - external linkage [6][7]. 3.2 Palm Oil (P) - **Time - cycle Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: weakly volatile; Reference view: weakly volatile [7]. - **Core Logic**: The price is affected by factors such as Malaysian palm oil production and exports, Indonesian exports, tariff policies of major producing countries, domestic arrival and inventory, and substitution demand. With the expected increase in Malaysian palm oil inventory and weak demand, along with the decline in international oil prices and the increase in domestic inventory, the short - term trend is weakly volatile [7][8]. 3.3 Soybean Oil - **Time - cycle Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: weakly volatile; Reference view: weakly volatile [7]. - **Core Logic**: The price is influenced by factors such as US tariff policies, US soybean oil inventory, biodiesel demand, domestic oil refinery inventory, and channel stocking demand [7].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 5 月 6 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡思路 核心逻辑：4 月期间国内主产区安监环境平稳，山西煤炭产量维持高位，钢联统计的 523 家炼焦煤 矿精煤产量月内持续回升，而进口量虽同比或有小幅下滑，但减量预计有限，焦煤供应压力依然居 高不下。此外，中美贸易摩擦压制黑色金属终端产品出口，叠加地产、基建表现低迷，内需支撑有 限，焦煤中长期需求担忧仍存。供需数据方面，根据钢联统计，截至 5 月 2 日当周，全国 523 家炼 焦煤矿精煤日均产量 80.4 万吨，周环比增 0.7 万吨，连续第 6 周录得正增长，较去年同期产量偏 高 5.7 万吨。进口方面，4 月 21 至 26 日，甘其毛都口岸累计通关车数 3877 车，周环比减少 2329 车。需求方面，5 月 2 日当周，焦化厂和钢厂焦炭日均产量合计 114.41 万吨，周环比增加 0.09 万 吨。综上，焦煤价格持续下挫，且其供应宽松局面并未扭转，基本面整体依然偏空，叠加当前宏观 向上驱 ...