投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 国债期货 | 日报 2025 年 5 月 7 日 国债期货 专业研究·创造价值 降息降准落地，国债期货震荡整理 核心观点 今日国债期货均窄幅震荡整理。今日国新办召开新闻发布会，央行宣 布降息降准等一系列重磅政策。央行宣布降低存款准备金率 0.5 个百分点， 预计向市场释放 1 万亿长期流动性；央行宣布下调 7 日逆回购利率 10BP， 预计带动 LPR 下调 10BP。在外部经贸环境错综复杂的背景下，4 月国内制造 业 PMI 出现走弱的情况，急需政策端靠前发力，稳定经济需求，加上近期人 民币汇率表现偏强，降息降准的条件已具备，因此政策面如期实施降息降准 政策。此前 4 月初以来国债期货价格震荡上涨，已经隐含了在外部环境扰动 下国内降息稳定经济需求的预期，隐含降息预期在 10BP 左右。总的来说， 随着降息降准落地，短期内政策预期兑现，预计国债期货短期内保持震荡整 理。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：龙奥明 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明：本人具有中国期货 业协会授予的期货从业资格证 书，期货投资咨询资格证书， 本人承诺 ...

资讯早班车 资讯早班车-2025-05-07 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20250416 | 2025/03 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 5.40 | 5.40 | 5.30 | | 20250430 | 2025/04 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.00 | 50.50 | 50.40 | | 20250430 | 2025/04 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 | % | 50.40 | 50.80 | 51.20 | | | | 动 | | | | | | 20250430 | 2025/04 | 财新 PMI:制造业 | % | 50.40 | 51.20 | 51.40 | | 20250506 | 2025/04 | 财新 PMI:服务业经营 活动指数 | % | 50.70 | 51.90 | 52.50 | | | | 社会融资规模增量:当 | | | | | | 20250414 | 2025 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report presents the basis, inter - period, and inter - variety data of various commodities on different dates, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, which can help investors analyze the price relationships and trends of these commodities [2][8][13]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Power Coal - Basis data from April 25 to May 6, 2025, shows that the basis values are negative and gradually decreasing, with values of - 146.4, - 147.4, - 149.4, - 151.4, - 153.4 respectively. The 5 - 1, 9 - 1, and 9 - 5 inter - period spreads are all 0 [2]. 2. Energy Chemicals (1) Energy Commodities - For INE crude oil, fuel oil, and the crude oil/bitumen ratio, basis and ratio data from April 25 to May 6, 2025, are presented. For example, the INE crude oil basis on May 6 is - 40.14 [6]. (2) Chemical Commodities - **Basis**: From April 25 to May 6, 2025, basis data for natural rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, and PP are provided. For instance, the natural rubber basis on May 6 is - 115 [8]. - **Inter - period**: Inter - period spreads for different chemicals are given, such as the 5 - 1, 9 - 1, and 9 - 5 spreads for natural rubber, methanol, etc. The 5 - 1 spread of natural rubber is - 930 [8]. - **Inter - variety**: Inter - variety spreads like LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, etc., are presented for different dates [8]. 3. Black Metals - **Basis**: Basis data for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from April 25 to May 6, 2025, are shown. For example, the rebar basis on May 6 is 113.0 [13]. - **Inter - period**: Inter - period spreads for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are provided. The 5 - 1 spread of rebar is - 78.0 [13]. - **Inter - variety**: Inter - variety relationships such as rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, etc., are presented for different dates [13]. 4. Non - ferrous Metals (1) Domestic Market - Basis data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from April 25 to May 6, 2025, are given. The copper basis on May 6 is 770 [22]. (2) London Market - Data on LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin are presented. For example, the LME copper spread on April 30 is 20.23 [29]. 5. Agricultural Products - **Basis**: Basis data for soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, corn, etc., from April 25 to May 6, 2025, are provided. The soybean basis on May 6 is - 269 [37]. - **Inter - period**: Inter - period spreads for various agricultural products are given. The 5 - 1 spread of soybean is 23 [37]. - **Inter - variety**: Inter - variety relationships such as soybean/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, etc., are presented for different dates [37]. 6. Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: Basis data for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from April 25 to May 6, 2025, are shown. The CSI 300 basis on May 6 is 42.34 [45]. - **Inter - period**: Inter - period spreads for different stock index futures are provided. The next - month - current - month spread of CSI 300 is - 30.6 [45].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The report expects treasury bond futures to fluctuate strongly in the short term as the expectation of macro - policy intensification is rising and the domestic interest - rate cut expectation is approaching. The 4 - month manufacturing PMI data decline indicates that subsequent growth - stabilizing policies will gradually increase, and with the recent appreciation pressure on the RMB, the conditions for an interest - rate cut are relatively sufficient, despite the reduced necessity for a rate cut due to strong travel data during the May Day holiday and uncertain overseas factors [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2506 variety, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "oscillation with an upward bias", and the reference view is "range oscillation". The core logic is the weakening of the manufacturing PMI and the increasing expectation of an interest - rate cut [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price and Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, and TS. The intraday view is "oscillation with an upward bias", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "range oscillation". The core logic is that treasury bond futures oscillated narrowly yesterday. Strong travel data during the May Day holiday showed strong macro - economic resilience, reducing the necessity for an interest - rate cut. Overseas tariff war disturbances have weakened marginally, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is still unclear, which disturbs the central bank's interest - rate cut expectation. However, the weakening of the April manufacturing PMI data indicates that subsequent growth - stabilizing policies will increase, and with the RMB appreciation pressure, the conditions for an interest - rate cut are sufficient [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The short - term view of the stock index is oscillating strongly, and the medium - term view is oscillating. Policy expectations support the stock index. Once there is a clear signal of policy benefits, the stock index may break through and rise [1][5] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2506, the short - term view is oscillating, the medium - term view is oscillating, the intraday view is oscillating strongly, and the overall view reference is oscillating strongly, with the core logic being the increasing expectation of the policy side [1] 2. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view is oscillating strongly, and the medium - term view is oscillating. The reference view is oscillating strongly. The core logic is that the stock index rose comprehensively yesterday. The stock market trading volume was 1364.4 billion yuan, 171.4 billion yuan more than the previous day. This was due to the stable external news during the holiday, the return of funds to the stock market, the good high - frequency data of travel during the holiday, the high possibility of macro - economic recovery, the continuous allocation of A - shares by funds like Central Huijin, the weakening of the manufacturing PMI in April indicating increasing policy measures for stable growth, and the stock index being at the position of the gap in early April, which will oscillate around the current point. Policy expectations support the stock index, and it will be oscillating strongly in the short term [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the price trends and driving factors of several agricultural products in the commodity futures market, including soybean meal, palm oil, and soybean oil, with a short - term view of "oscillating weakly" for all these products and a medium - term view of "oscillating" [6][7][8] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Soybean Meal (M) - **Price Trend**: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all "oscillating weakly", with a reference view of "oscillating weakly" [6][7] - **Driving Factors**: CBOT soybean futures declined for two consecutive days due to concerns about international trade tensions and falling soybean oil futures. Domestic soybean meal spot prices in North and Northeast China stabilized, and the decline of soybean meal futures slowed. The average arrival volume of imported soybeans from May to July is large, and the market focuses on oil mill operation plans,提货 rhythms, and downstream inventory procurement dynamics. The overall price of soybean products is under pressure as supply expectations improve [6] - **Core Logic**: Import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, North American spring sowing weather, oil mill operation rhythm, and备货 demand [7] Palm Oil (P) - **Price Trend**: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all "oscillating weakly", with a reference view of "oscillating weakly" [7][8] - **Driving Factors**: Under the double pressure of rising inventory and weak demand, Malaysian palm oil prices are continuously under pressure. The decline in international oil prices also casts a shadow over the outlook for Indonesian biofuel demand. Both Malaysian and domestic palm oil inventories are expected to rise, and the short - term palm oil futures price lacks obvious drivers, following the trend in the oil and fat sector passively, with a bearish market sentiment [8] - **Core Logic**: Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, main - producing countries' tariff policies, domestic arrivals and inventory, and substitution demand [7] Soybean Oil (2509) - **Price Trend**: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all "oscillating weakly", with a reference view of "oscillating weakly" [7] - **Core Logic**: US tariff policies, US soybean oil inventory, biodiesel demand, domestic oil mill inventory, and channel备货 demand [7]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-05-07 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 多空分歧出现，甲醇震荡偏强 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 甲醇（MA） 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 晨会纪要 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - The crude oil futures 2507 contract is expected to run with a slightly bullish trend in the short - term (Wednesday night), while showing a weakening trend in the medium - term. The market is currently digesting bearish factors, and after the holiday, the contract opened lower to absorb the negative news. With the price rebounding slightly on Tuesday night, it may maintain a slightly bullish trend on Wednesday night [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil (SC) Market Analysis - **Supply Situation**: OPEC+ countries will increase production at a faster pace in June, and U.S. shale oil production is also growing steadily, leading to an increased expectation of supply surplus in the oil market [5]. - **Demand Situation**: In May, the demand for crude oil in the Northern Hemisphere remains in the off - season, and the consumption power will gradually increase in June. The refinery operating rate remains stable, and the pressure of commercial crude oil inventory accumulation is prominent [5]. - **Price Movement**: After the holiday, the domestic crude oil futures 2507 contract opened significantly lower and ran weakly to digest bearish factors. On Tuesday night, the oil price stopped falling, stabilized, and rebounded 1.62% to 457.3 yuan/barrel [5]. - **Outlook**: It is expected that the crude oil futures 2507 contract will maintain a slightly bullish trend on Wednesday night [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run strongly in the short - term, with an intraday view of being oscillating and strong, and a medium - term view of being oscillating and weak [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term is oscillating, medium - term is oscillating and weak, and intraday is oscillating and strong, with a reference view of running strongly [1][5]. - **Core Logic**: Domestic and foreign natural rubber producing areas will enter a new round of tapping seasons, increasing raw material output and new rubber supply. After the May Day holiday, the downstream tire industry's operating rate is in a stage of recovery, and procurement demand is expected to increase. During the holiday, the Japanese rubber futures rose 1.27%, but international oil prices tumbled. With the recovery of domestic tire enterprises' operating rates after the holiday, demand factors strengthened, boosting the rubber price to stabilize and rebound. On Tuesday night, the Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract closed slightly up 0.68% to 14,910 yuan/ton, and it is expected to maintain an oscillating and strong trend on Wednesday [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term is oscillating, medium - term is oscillating and weak, and intraday is oscillating and strong, with a reference view of running strongly [1][7]. - **Core Logic**: During the May Day holiday, OPEC+ oil - producing countries agreed to continue to accelerate production increase in June, bringing new supply pressure to the crude oil market. After the release of bearish sentiment on the first day after the holiday, international crude oil futures prices rebounded on Tuesday night, driving the synthetic rubber futures 2507 contract to rise slightly. The futures price rose 1.11% to 11,435 yuan/ton, and it is expected to maintain an oscillating and stable trend on Wednesday [7].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 5 月 7 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：观望 核心逻辑：五一期间金价先抑后扬，伦敦金由 3300 美元一度跌至 3200 美元一线，随后触底回升， 收复前期跌幅。节后开盘首日，金价维持强势运行，伦敦金由 3300 关口拉升至 3400 关口。4 月底金 价下挫我们认为是短期累积涨幅过大，且美国方面对关税政策有所松口，市场风险偏好回升，避险需 求下降，多头了结意愿上升。而本周以来期价快速反弹，很大程度上也说明了多头支撑较强。短期技 术面可关注伦敦金 3400 关口技术压力，沪金关注 800 元技术压力。消息面上，5 月 7 日外交部发言 人宣布我国副总理将在访瑞期间与美国财政部长举行会谈，中美关系趋于缓和，或导致金价冲高回 落。此外，可关注北京时间周四凌晨美联储议息会议结果。 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...