1、基本面：玻璃生产利润修复，行业冷修速度放缓，开工率、产量下降至历史同期低位；深加工 订单不及往年同期，终端需求偏弱；偏空 2、基差：浮法玻璃河北沙河大板现货1088元/吨，FG2601收盘价为1214元/吨，基差为-126元，期 货升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国浮法玻璃企业库存6184.70万重量箱，较前一周增加3.95%，库存在5年均值上方运 行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向上；中性 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期： "反内卷"情绪仍存，但玻璃基本面疲弱，短期预计震荡运行为主。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 玻璃早报 2025-8-14 每日观点 玻璃： 影响因素总结 利多： 1、"反内卷"政策影响下，浮法玻璃行业存产能出清预期。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - For PTA, under continuous low processing margins, there have been more changes in PTA plants recently. However, in terms of price, the cost side lacks support and the downstream polyester demand is average during the off - season. It is expected that the PTA spot price will fluctuate in the short term and the spot basis will stabilize, with attention to subsequent PTA plant and downstream polyester load changes [5]. - For MEG, the port inventory will be adjusted widely this month, and the increase is not sustainable. The supply - demand structure of ethylene glycol will be basically balanced from August to September, and the demand support will gradually strengthen over time. The fundamental structure of ethylene glycol is neutral to positive, and it is expected that the short - term low - level support of ethylene glycol will be strong, with attention to plant changes [6]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Previous Day Review - Not provided in the content 3.2. Daily Reminders - Not provided in the content 3.3. Today's Focus - Not provided in the content 3.4. Fundamental Data PTA - **Price**: The PTA futures fluctuated and closed down yesterday. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was average, with individual polyester factories replenishing goods. The spot basis was stable. The price negotiation range of August goods was around 4,675 - 4,710, and today's mainstream spot basis is 09 - 13. The processing fee decreased from 439.48 yuan/ton to 154.49 yuan/ton [5][12]. - **Inventory**: The PTA factory inventory is 3.7 days, a decrease of 0.12 days compared to the previous period [5]. - **Supply - demand Balance**: The PTA supply - demand balance table shows the production, consumption, and inventory data from January 2024 to December 2025, with fluctuations in supply and demand and inventory [10]. MEG - **Price**: On Wednesday, the price of ethylene glycol fluctuated and weakened. The spot negotiation was around a premium of 75 - 78 yuan/ton over the 09 contract. The price of ethylene glycol in the night session fluctuated narrowly. The internal - market price index of ethylene glycol decreased from 4,202 yuan/ton to 4,482 yuan/ton [7][12]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in the East China region is 47.22 tons, an increase of 4.48 tons compared to the previous period [7]. - **Supply - demand Balance**: The ethylene glycol supply - demand balance table shows the production, consumption, and inventory data from January 2024 to December 2025, with changes in supply and demand and inventory [11]. 3.5. PTA Daily View - **Fundamentals**: The PTA futures fluctuated and closed down yesterday, with average spot market negotiation and stable basis [5]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4,692, and the 09 contract basis is 0, indicating the spot price is at par with the futures price [5]. - **Inventory**: The PTA factory inventory decreased, showing a bullish signal [5]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, showing a bearish signal [5]. - **Main Position**: The net short position decreased, showing a bearish signal [5]. - **Expectation**: The PTA spot price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the spot basis will stabilize [5]. 3.6. MEG Daily View - **Fundamentals**: The price of ethylene glycol fluctuated and weakened on Wednesday, with average market negotiation [7]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4,488, and the 09 contract basis is 82, indicating the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [7]. - **Inventory**: The East China port inventory increased, showing a bearish signal [7]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, showing a bearish signal [7]. - **Main Position**: The net short position increased, showing a bearish signal [6]. - **Expectation**: The port inventory will be adjusted widely this month, and the supply - demand structure will be basically balanced from August to September. The short - term low - level support of ethylene glycol is expected to be strong [6]. 3.7. Influencing Factors Summary - **Positive Factors**: Some PTA plants are planned for maintenance in August, which is expected to improve the supply - demand situation [8]. - **Negative Factors**: At the demand end, with the end of the export rush and the off - season of domestic demand, the terminal demand is definitely weakening [8]. 3.8. Current Main Logic and Risk Points - The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and for the market rebound, attention should be paid to the upper resistance level [9].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2025-8-14 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，7 月中国官方制造业 PMI 为 49.3%，环比降 0.4 个百分点，连续 4 个月收缩，财新7月制造业 PMI 从 50.4 降至 49.5，同样收缩，7 月出口 3217.8 亿美元，同 比增 7.2%。"反内卷"政策推动商品预期改善，但情绪降温后回归基本面。短期油价震荡回落。 供需端，农膜淡季，短期开工略有恢复，但仍处于偏低水平。当前LL交割品现货价7280（+10）， 基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2509合约基差-101，升贴水比例-1.4%，偏空； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存50.5万吨（-7.1），中性； • 4. 盘面： LLD ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand. In the short term, it is expected to mainly move in a volatile manner. The industry's supply - demand mismatch pattern has not been effectively improved. Although there are some potential positive factors such as the upcoming summer maintenance peak, the overall situation is still bearish due to high supply, weak terminal demand, and high inventory [2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Alkali plants have few overhauls, supply remains high; downstream float glass daily melting volume is stable, while photovoltaic daily melting volume drops significantly, terminal demand weakens, and soda ash plant inventories are at a historical high; outlook is bearish [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,260 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2601 is 1,383 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 123 yuan, and the futures price is higher than the spot price; outlook is bearish [2]. - **Inventory**: The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.8651 million tons, an increase of 3.86% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average; outlook is bearish [2]. - **Disk**: The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward; outlook is bullish [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions increase; outlook is bearish [2]. - **Expectation**: Given the supply - demand situation, soda ash is expected to move in a volatile manner in the short term [2]. 3.2 Impact Factors Summary - **Positive Factors**: The upcoming summer maintenance peak will lead to a decline in production [3]. - **Negative Factors**: Since 2023, soda ash production capacity has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The production of heavy - alkali downstream photovoltaic glass has decreased, weakening the demand for soda ash. The sentiment of the "anti - involution" policy has faded [5]. 3.3 Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract decreased from 1,409 yuan/ton to 1,383 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.85%. The low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in Shahe decreased from 1,275 yuan/ton to 1,260 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.18%. The main basis decreased from - 134 yuan/ton to - 123 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.21% [6]. 3.4 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,260 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. - **Production Profit**: The profit of heavy - quality soda ash using the North China ammonia - soda process is - 23.80 yuan/ton, and that using the East China co - production process is 18.50 yuan/ton. The production profit has rebounded from a historical low [15]. - **Operating Rate and Production**: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 85.41%, and the operating rate is expected to decline seasonally. The weekly production is 744,600 tons, including 423,400 tons of heavy - quality soda ash, with production at a historical high [18][20]. - **Capacity Changes**: In 2023, the new production capacity was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned new production capacity is 7.5 million tons, with 1 million tons actually put into production [21]. 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - **Sales - to - Production Ratio**: The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 90.69% [25]. - **Downstream Demand**: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 159,600 tons, and the operating rate is stable at 75.19%. The price of photovoltaic glass continues to fall, and under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, the industry has cut production, and the in - production daily melting volume has decreased significantly [28][31]. 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.8651 million tons, an increase of 3.86% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [34]. 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheets from 2017 to 2024E show various data such as effective capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, and supply - demand differences. The supply - demand situation has fluctuated over the years, and in 2024E, the supply - demand difference is 157,000 tons [35].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 2025年8月14日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 每日观点 供给端来看，根据隆众，2025年8月份国内沥青总计划排产量为241.3万吨，环比降幅5.1%, 同比增幅17.1%。本周国内石油沥青样本产能利用率为33.4372%，环比减少1.32个百分点， 全国样本企业出货28.03万吨，环比增加2.90%,样本企业产量为55.8万吨，环比减少3.79%, 样本企业装置检修量预估为61.6万吨，环比增加1.99%,本周炼厂有所减产，降低供应压力。 下周或将增加供给压力。 需求端来看，重交沥青开工率为31.7%，环比减少0.04个百分点，低于历史平均水平；建筑沥 青开工率为18.2%，环比持平，低于历史平均水平；改性沥青开工率为15.8681% ...

Report Information - Report Title: PVC Futures Morning Report - Report Date: August 14, 2025 - Analyst: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - Supply pressure increased this week and is expected to continue rising next week due to reduced maintenance and increased production scheduling [8]. - Current demand may remain sluggish, with downstream overall and some product开工率 below historical averages [8]. - Both calcium carbide and ethylene production methods are in a state of loss, but the double - ton price difference is higher than the historical average, which may lead to increased production scheduling [8]. - The base price indicates that the spot is at a discount to the futures, and the overall inventory is at a high level. The main position holds a net short position, and the shorts are increasing [8]. - PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4961 - 5071, and continuous attention should be paid to macro - policies and export dynamics [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Views - **Supply**: In July 2025, PVC production was 2.00461 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.67%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 79.46%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points. Calcium carbide method enterprise production was 336,105 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.55%, and ethylene method enterprise production was 139,810 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.48%. Next week, maintenance is expected to decrease, and production scheduling is expected to increase significantly [8]. - **Demand**: The overall downstream开工率 was 42.85%, a month - on - month increase of 0.80 percentage points, lower than the historical average. Some downstream product开工率 such as profiles, pipes, and films decreased month - on - month, while the paste resin开工率 increased. Shipping costs are expected to decline, and domestic PVC export prices are advantageous, but current demand may remain sluggish [8]. - **Cost**: The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 252.2756 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase in losses of 104.00%. The profit of the ethylene method was - 488.965 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase in losses of 2.00%. The double - ton price difference was 2683.25 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month, higher than the historical average, which may lead to increased production scheduling [8]. - **Basis**: On August 13, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4950 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 217 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. Bearish [8]. - **Inventory**: Factory inventory was 337,163 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.36%. Calcium carbide method factory inventory was 259,778 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.49%. Ethylene method factory inventory was 77,385 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.62%. Social inventory was 480,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.32%. The number of days of inventory in production enterprises was 5.6 days, a month - on - month decrease of 3.44%. Bearish [8]. - **Disk**: MA20 was upward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below MA20. Neutral [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position held a net short position, and the shorts increased. Bearish [8]. - **Expectation**: The cost of both calcium carbide and ethylene methods weakened, and the overall cost weakened. Supply pressure increased this week, and production scheduling is expected to increase next week. Overall inventory is at a high level, and current demand may remain sluggish. PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4961 - 5071 [8]. 2. PVC Futures Market - **Yesterday's Market Overview**: The report provides detailed data on yesterday's PVC futures and spot prices, spreads, inventory,开工率, and other indicators [15]. - **Basis Trend**: The report presents the basis trend chart of PVC futures, which helps to understand the relationship between spot and futures prices [17]. - **Spread Analysis**: Analyzes the spread of the main PVC futures contracts, which is of reference value for hedging and arbitrage [23]. 3. PVC Fundamental Analysis - **Calcium Carbide Method - Semi - coke**: It shows the price, cost - profit,开工率, and inventory trends of semi - coke materials used in the calcium carbide method from 2022 to 2025 [27]. - **Calcium Carbide Method - Calcium Carbide**: Presents the price, cost - profit,开工率, maintenance loss, and production trends of calcium carbide from 2019 to 2025 [30]. - **Calcium Carbide Method - Liquid Chlorine and Raw Salt**: Displays the price and production trends of liquid chlorine and raw salt from 2019 to 2025 [32]. - **Calcium Carbide Method - Caustic Soda**: Analyzes the price, cost - profit,开工率, production, maintenance volume, and inventory trends of 32% caustic soda in Shandong from 2019 to 2025 [34]. - **Calcium Carbide Method - Caustic Soda (Comprehensive)**: Further analyzes the cost - profit, apparent consumption, double - ton price difference, and inventory trends of caustic soda in Shandong from 2019 to 2025 [37]. - **PVC Supply Trend**: Analyzes the capacity utilization rate, profit, daily production, weekly maintenance volume, and weekly production of PVC from 2018 to 2025 [38]. - **PVC Demand Trend**: Analyzes the daily sales volume of traders, weekly pre - sales volume, weekly production - sales rate, apparent consumption, downstream average开工率, and开工率 of various downstream products of PVC from 2019 to 2025 [43]. - **PVC Inventory**: Displays the trends of exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide method factory inventory, ethylene method factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days from 2019 to 2025 [59]. - **Ethylene Method**: Analyzes the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, FOB price difference of the ethylene method, and import price difference of vinyl chloride from 2018 to 2025 [61]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Provides the export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import data of PVC from June 2024 to July 2025 [64].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamental aspect of lithium carbonate is neutral. The supply side shows an increasing trend, with the production in July 2025 at 81,530 physical tons and a predicted production of 84,200 physical tons in the next month, a month - on - month increase of 3.27%. The import volume in July 2025 was 18,000 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for the next month is 18,500 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.78%. The demand side is expected to strengthen next month, and inventory may be reduced. The cost side shows that the CIF price of 6% concentrate has a daily increase, lower than the historical average level. The supply - demand pattern is turning to demand - led, and the lithium carbonate 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 83,220 - 86,980 [8]. - The main logic is that the supply - demand mismatch leads to a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change [12]. - There are both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include manufacturers' plans to stop or reduce production, a month - on - month decrease in the amount of lithium carbonate imported from Chile, and a decline in the import volume of spodumene. Negative factors include the continuous high supply from ore/salt lake ends with limited decline, and the insufficient willingness of the power battery end to take delivery [10][11]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply Side**: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 19,556 tons, a week - on - week increase of 13.24%, higher than the historical average level. In July 2025, the production was 81,530 physical tons, and the predicted production for the next month is 84,200 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.27% [8]. - **Demand Side**: Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 94,598 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.99%, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 16,559 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.36%. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, and inventory may be reduced [8]. - **Cost Side**: The cost of purchased spodumene concentrate is 79,038 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 1.24%, with a production profit of 825 yuan/ton; the cost of purchased lepidolite is 82,676 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 2.28%, with a production loss of 4,848 yuan/ton. The production cost of the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, with average production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end is 31,745 yuan/ton, significantly lower than the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [8]. - **Basis**: On August 13, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 81,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was - 4,100 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, showing a bearish signal [8]. - **Inventory**: The smelter inventory was 50,999 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.84%, lower than the historical average level; the downstream inventory was 48,159 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.95%, higher than the historical average level; other inventories were 43,260 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.41%, higher than the historical average level; the total inventory was 142,418 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.49%, higher than the historical average level, showing a neutral signal [8]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed above the MA20, showing a bullish signal [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing, showing a bearish signal [8]. 3.2 Market Overview - **Price Changes**: The prices of lithium ore, lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and other products have shown different degrees of increase or decrease. For example, the price of lithium ore (01) increased from 81,320 to 84,480, an increase of 3,160, or 3.89%. The price of lithium carbonate (04) increased from 78,880 to 82,540, an increase of 3,660, or 4.64% [14]. - **Basis Changes**: The basis of various products has also changed. For example, the basis of ternary materials (01) decreased from - 3,320 to - 3,480, a decrease of 160, or 4.82% [14]. 3.3 Supply - Related - **Lithium Ore Supply**: The price of lithium ore has fluctuated over time. The production of Chinese sample spodumene mines and domestic lepidolite has shown different trends in different years. The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate has also changed, with the import volume from Australia and other regions showing different trends. The self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore has also fluctuated [23]. - **Lithium Carbonate Supply**: The weekly and monthly production, import volume, and capacity of lithium carbonate from different sources (lithium辉石, lithium云母, salt lake, recycling) have changed over time. The weekly and monthly production of lithium carbonate has shown different trends, and the import volume from different countries (Chile, Argentina, etc.) has also changed [28]. - **Lithium Hydroxide Supply**: The weekly capacity utilization rate, monthly production, and export volume of lithium hydroxide have changed over time. The production from different sources (smelting, causticizing) and the total production have also shown different trends [37]. 3.4 Cost - Profit Related - The cost and profit of various lithium compounds (purchased spodumene concentrate, purchased lepidolite, recycled lithium carbonate from different sources, etc.) have changed over time. For example, the cost and profit of purchased spodumene concentrate (Li₂O:6%) have fluctuated, and the cost and profit of recycled lithium carbonate from different types of black powder have also shown different trends [43][46]. 3.5 Inventory - Related - The inventory of lithium carbonate (smelter, downstream, other, total) and lithium hydroxide (downstream, smelter, total) has changed over time. The weekly and monthly inventory of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide has shown different trends [51]. 3.6 Demand - Related - **Lithium Battery Demand**: The price, production, loading volume, and export volume of lithium batteries have changed over time. The monthly production of battery cells, the loading volume of power batteries (lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials), and the export volume of lithium batteries have shown different trends [54]. - **Ternary Precursor Demand**: The price, cost, profit, production, and export volume of ternary precursors have changed over time. The price of different types of ternary precursors (5 - series, 6 - series, 8 - series) has fluctuated, and the cost, profit, and production have also shown different trends [60]. - **Ternary Material Demand**: The price, cost, profit, production, and export volume of ternary materials have changed over time. The price of different types of ternary materials (5 - series, 6 - series, 8 - series) has fluctuated, and the cost, profit, and production have also shown different trends [66]. - **Phosphoric Acid Iron/Phosphoric Acid Iron Lithium Demand**: The price, production, cost, profit, and inventory of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid iron lithium have changed over time. The price of different types of phosphoric acid iron lithium (power - type, low - end energy - storage type) has fluctuated, and the production, cost, profit, and inventory have also shown different trends [70]. - **New Energy Vehicle Demand**: The production, sales, export volume, sales penetration rate, and inventory of new energy vehicles have changed over time. The production, sales, and export volume of new energy vehicles (plug - in hybrid, pure - electric) have shown different trends, and the sales penetration rate and inventory have also changed [78].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The rapeseed meal is expected to be in a strong and volatile short - term pattern due to the preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. It is predicted to oscillate between 2600 and 2660 in the RM2601 contract, and the market should pay attention to subsequent developments [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt No content is provided for this part. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the peak season, and the listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the tight supply expectation in the spot market, while the demand side maintains a good outlook [10]. - China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is established, and a 75.8% import deposit is being levied. The final ruling is yet to be determined, depending on the development of China - Canada trade relations [10]. - Global rapeseed production has slightly decreased this year, mainly affected by the reduction in EU rapeseed production and lower - than - expected production in Canada [10]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues. The decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production and the increase in Russian rapeseed production offset each other. Global geopolitical conflicts may rise in the future, providing support for commodities [10]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish Factors**: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the addition of import deposit; the inventory pressure of rapeseed meal in oil mills is not significant [11]. - **Bearish Factors**: The concentrated listing of domestic rapeseed in June; the final result of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still uncertain, with a small probability of reconciliation [11]. - **Main Logic**: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [11]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand Balance**: The domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal supply - demand balance tables from 2014 - 2023 show the changes in harvest area, production, inventory, and other indicators over the years [23][24]. - **Inventory**: Rapeseed meal inventory is 3.2 tons, up 18.52% week - on - week and 14.29% year - on - year [8]. - **Price**: The spot price of rapeseed meal is 2680, with a basis of - 8, indicating a discount to the futures. The price is above the 20 - day moving average and trending upwards [8]. - **Import Situation**: The arrival volume of imported rapeseed in August is lower than expected, and the import cost fluctuates slightly [25]. - **Oil Mill Situation**: The rapeseed inventory in oil mills has dropped to a low level, and the rapeseed meal inventory remains low. The rapeseed crushing volume in oil mills has increased slightly [27][29]. - **Aquatic Product Market**: Aquatic fish prices fluctuate slightly, while shrimp and shellfish prices remain stable [37]. 3.5 Position Data The short positions of the main contract have decreased, and funds have flowed out [8].

report industry investment rating No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. core view of the report - For Shanghai Nickel 2509, it is expected to fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average. The long - term supply surplus pattern remains unchanged, but there are short - term factors affecting the price [3][4]. - For Stainless Steel 2510, it is expected to operate with a slight upward trend [5]. summary according to relevant catalogs nickel daily view - **fundamentals**: The external market rose and then fell, with support at the 20 - day moving average. Last week, there was an arrival of Norwegian nickel slabs, increasing supply. The ore price was stable, the ferronickel price rose slightly, and the cost line rebounded slightly. Stainless steel inventory decreased slightly. New energy vehicle production and sales data were good, but the proportion of ternary battery installations decreased. The long - term surplus pattern remains unchanged, showing a bearish outlook [4]. - **basis**: The spot price was 123,800, and the basis was 1,460, showing a bullish outlook [4]. - **inventory**: LME inventory was 211,098 (- 648), and Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts were 20,578 (- 115), showing a bearish outlook [4]. - **market**: The closing price was above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average was upward, showing a bullish outlook [4]. - **main position**: The main position was net short, and short positions increased, showing a bearish outlook [4]. stainless steel daily view - **fundamentals**: The spot stainless steel price decreased. In the short term, the nickel ore price was stable, the shipping cost decreased slightly, the ferronickel price rose slightly, and the cost line increased slightly. Stainless steel inventory decreased, showing a neutral outlook [5]. - **basis**: The average stainless steel price was 13,850, and the basis was 720, showing a bullish outlook [5]. - **inventory**: The futures warehouse receipts were 103,518 (- 422), showing a bearish outlook [5]. - **market**: The closing price was above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average was upward, showing a bullish outlook [5]. price overview - **nickel**: On August 13, the Shanghai Nickel main contract closed at 122,340 (- 100), the LME nickel closed at 15,240 (- 120). The spot prices of SMM1 electrolytic nickel, 1 Jinchuan nickel, 1 imported nickel, and nickel beans all increased to varying degrees [13]. - **stainless steel**: On August 13, the stainless steel main contract closed at 13,130 (- 70). The spot prices of cold - rolled 304*2B in Wuxi, Hangzhou, and Shanghai decreased, while that in Foshan remained unchanged [13]. inventory situation - **nickel**: As of August 8, the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 26,194 tons, with futures inventory at 20,621 tons. On August 13, LME inventory was 211,098 (- 648), and Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts were 20,578 (- 115) [15][16]. - **stainless steel**: On August 8, the inventory in Wuxi was 61,620 tons, in Foshan was 330,800 tons, and the national inventory was 1,106,300 tons, a decrease of 4,900 tons compared to the previous period. Among them, the inventory of the 300 - series was 657,600 tons, a decrease of 19,100 tons. On August 13, the stainless steel warehouse receipts were 103,518 (- 422) [20][21]. price of nickel ore and ferronickel - The price of laterite nickel ore CIF with Ni1.5% and Ni0.9% remained unchanged at 57 and 29 US dollars per wet ton respectively on August 13 compared to August 12. The shipping costs from the Philippines to Lianyungang and Tianjin Port also remained unchanged. The price of high - nickel ferronickel increased by 1.5 yuan per nickel point, and the price of low - nickel ferronickel remained unchanged [24]. stainless steel production cost - The traditional production cost was 12,946, the scrap steel production cost was 13,704, and the low - nickel + pure nickel production cost was 16,552 [26]. nickel import cost - The converted import price was 123,027 yuan per ton [29]. factors affecting prices - **bullish factors**: Expectations for the "Golden September and Silver October" season and anti - involution policies [8]. - **bearish factors**: The domestic production continued to increase significantly year - on - year, there were no new demand growth points, the long - term surplus pattern remained unchanged. The nickel ore and ferronickel prices were weakly stable, and the cost line was still at a low level. The substitution ratio of ternary batteries increased [8].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2025年8月14日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 棉花： 1、基本面：ICAC8月报：25/26年度产量2590万吨，消费2560万吨。USDA8月报：25/26年 度产量2539.2万吨，消费2568.8万吨，期末库存1609.3万吨。海关：7月纺织品服装出口 267.7亿美元，同比下降0.1%。6月份我国棉花进口3万吨，同比减少82.1%；棉纱进口11万 吨，同比增加0.1%。农村部7月25/26年度：产量625万吨，进口140万吨，消费740万吨， 期末库存823万吨。中性。 2、基差：现货3128b全国均价15188，基差1058（01合约），升水期货；偏多。 ...