Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, sugar prices mainly fluctuated slightly in the range of 5400 - 5500. Domestic sugarcane crushing has begun. In the main producing area of Guangxi, the sugarcane yield was affected by the typhoon in the early stage and decreased [4]. - Czarnikow raised the global sugar surplus forecast for the 25/26 season to 7.4 million tons, 1.2 million tons higher than the August estimate. StoneX predicted a global sugar market surplus of 2.77 million tons in the 25/26 season. ISO estimated a global sugar supply deficit of 231,000 tons in the 25/26 season, a significant reduction compared to the previous forecast [4]. - As of the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 11.1621 million tons, and the cumulative sugar sales were 10 million tons, with a sales rate of 89.6%. In September 2025, China imported 550,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 150,000 tons; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 151,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 135,100 tons [4]. - Recently, the external sugar price has been weak, while the domestic Zhengzhou sugar price has been relatively strong, mainly because the typhoon affected the main sugar - producing area in Guangxi, causing some sugarcane fields to be affected and the yield to decrease. At the same time, the Zhengzhou sugar contract shows a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness. Attention should be paid to the investment opportunity of the price difference between contracts 1 and 5. The short - term range of the main 01 contract of Zhengzhou sugar is 5400 - 5450 [4]. - Bullish factors include good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, and increased syrup tariffs. The change of the formula of American Coke to use sucrose is also a bullish factor. Bearish factors include an increase in global sugar production, a surplus in the new season's global supply, the external sugar price falling below 15 cents per pound, the opening of the import profit window, and increased import impact [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day Review - Not provided in the report 2. Daily Prompt - Not provided in the report 3. Today's Focus - Not provided in the report 4. Fundamental Data - **Global Supply and Demand Forecast**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar supply and demand in the 25/26 season. ISO estimated a supply deficit of 200,000 tons (basically balanced), StoneX predicted a supply surplus of 2.77 million tons, Czarnikow raised the surplus forecast to 7.4 million tons, Datagro estimated a surplus of 1.53 million tons, Covrig Analytics predicted a surplus of 4.2 million tons, Alvean/Louis Dreyfus estimated a surplus of 400,000 tons, and Green Pool predicted a surplus of 1.15 million tons [34]. - **China's Sugar Supply and Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 2024/25 season, the sugar - producing area was 1.262 million hectares, with a sugar production of 9.96 million tons, imports of 4.75 million tons, and consumption of 15.5 million tons. For the 2025/26 season, the sugar - producing area is expected to be 1.44 million hectares, with a sugar production of 11.2 million tons, imports of 5 million tons, and consumption of 15.9 million tons. The international sugar price is expected to be in the range of 16.5 - 21.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be in the range of 5800 - 6500 yuan per ton [36]. - **Imported Raw Sugar Processing Cost**: In September 2025, the average price of ICE raw sugar was about 15.79 cents per pound, and the cost of imported raw sugar after processing and paying 50% tariff was 5454 yuan per ton [41]. 5. Position Data - Not provided in the report

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Last week, events had little impact, funds took profits and fled, leading to a significant decline in precious metal prices. Gold and silver prices are under downward pressure and will mainly fluctuate this week, with attention needed on the Fed meeting, China-US consultation progress, and US PCE data [13] Summary by Directory 1. Last Week's Review - The prices of gold and silver futures contracts and spot prices all declined. For example, Shanghai Gold 2512 fell 4.89%, COMEX Gold 2512 fell 2.05%, Shanghai Silver 2512 fell 7.34%, and COMEX Silver 2512 fell 3.38%. The US dollar index rose 0.39%, and the US dollar against the offshore RMB fell 0.01% [4][13] - China-US economic and trade consultations were held from October 25th to 26th, and both sides reached a basic consensus on resolving concerns. The US September CPI rose 3% year-on-year, lower than expected, and the market fully priced in the expectation of two 25 - basis - point interest rate cuts by the Fed within the remaining time of this year. There were also developments in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, such as the US imposing new sanctions on Russian oil companies and the EU passing a new sanctions package [13][15][16] 2. Weekly Review - Events last week had little impact, funds took profits and fled, causing a significant decline in precious metal prices. This week, there are many events and data releases, including the APEC leaders' informal meeting, central bank interest rate decisions, and the release of China's PMI and the Fed's favorite inflation indicator PCE. The downward pressure on precious metal prices remains under the optimistic trade expectation, and they will mainly fluctuate [13] 3. Fundamental Data - The US 10 - year Treasury yield oscillated and fell to 4.38%. There were also developments in economic data such as inflation and employment, and geopolitical events affected the market [13][15][23] 4. Position Data - For Shanghai Gold, the net position decreased significantly, with both long and short positions decreasing. The long position decreased by 8.33%, the short position decreased by 10.89%, and the net position decreased by 6.61%. For Shanghai Silver, the net position decreased slightly, with both long and short positions decreasing. The long position decreased by 6.31%, the short position decreased by 6.98%, and the net position decreased by 4.21%. As of September 23rd, the CFTC gold net long position increased slightly, and the CFTC silver net long position continued to increase. The SPDR gold ETF position increased significantly, while the silver ETF position decreased slightly. The inventories of Shanghai Gold, COMEX Gold, Shanghai Silver, and COMEX Silver all increased [26][28][29] 5. Summary - This week, attention should be paid to the Fed meeting, China-US consultation progress, and US PCE data. Under the optimistic trade expectation, the downward pressure on precious metal prices remains, and they will mainly fluctuate [13]

沪铜早报- 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 每日观点 铜: 1、基本面：供应端有所扰动，冶炼企业有减产动作，废铜政策有所放开，9月份，制造业生产活动加 快，PMI升至49.8%，景气水平继续改善；中性。 2、基差：现货85370，基差-700，升水期货；偏空。 3、库存：10月23日铜库存增75至136925吨，上期所铜库存较上周增14656吨至109690吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向上运行；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，多减；偏多。 6、预期：库存回升，地缘扰动仍存印尼的Grasberg Block Cave矿事件发酵，铜价维持强势 大越期货投资咨询部 : 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 近期利多利空分析 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 全球政策宽松 和 贸易战升级 风险： 自然灾害 1、俄乌,伊以地缘政 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the methanol market, stating that for the mainland, factors such as low upstream factory inventory, firm coal prices, and low methanol prices in production areas support the market, but high overall mainland operating rates and supply pressure in some areas, along with squeezed olefin profits and high port inventories, limit price fluctuations. For ports, the impact of sanctions on Iranian imports reduces downward pressure, but the weak fundamentals lead to a highly volatile market with both upward and downward potential. It is expected that methanol prices will fluctuate this week, with the MA2601 contract trading between 2250 - 2310 yuan/ton [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The mainland market has cost - side support from low factory inventories and firm coal prices, but high operating rates and supply pressure in some areas, along with negative feedback from olefin plants, limit price movements. The port market is affected by sanctions on Iranian imports, with high volatility expected. The overall price of methanol is expected to fluctuate this week, with the MA2601 contract in the range of 2250 - 2310 yuan/ton. The basis shows that the spot is at a discount to the futures, port inventories have slightly decreased, the 20 - day line is downward, and the main positions are net short with an increase in short positions [5]. 2. Bullish and Bearish Concerns Bullish Factors - Some plants have stopped production, such as Yulin Kaiyue and Xinjiang Xinyie. Iranian methanol operating rates have decreased, and port inventories are at a low level. A 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant in Jingmen started production on May 16, and a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant in Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong is planned to be put into production this month. Northwest CTO plants are purchasing methanol externally [6]. Bearish Factors - Some previously shut - down plants have resumed production, like Inner Mongolia Donghua. There is a concentrated arrival of ships at ports in the second half of the month. Formaldehyde has entered the traditional off - season, and MTBE operating rates have declined significantly. Coal - to - methanol plants have a certain profit margin and are actively selling. Some factories in production areas have accumulated inventory due to poor sales [7]. 3. Fundamental Data Price Data - In the spot market, the price of thermal coal in the Bohai Rim is 684 yuan/ton, CFR China Main Port is 262 US dollars/ton, and the import cost is 2302 yuan/ton. In the futures market, the futures closing price is 2272 yuan/ton. The basis is - 32 yuan/ton, and the import spread is 30 yuan/ton [8]. - Domestic methanol spot prices in different regions have shown different trends. For example, in Jiangsu, the price has decreased by 1.41% week - on - week, while in Shandong, the price has remained unchanged [9]. Operating Rate Data - The weighted average national operating rate is 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% from last week. The operating rates in different regions, such as East China, Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest, have also decreased to varying degrees [8]. Inventory Data - As of October 16, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports is 125.89 tons, a slight decrease of 1.41 tons from the previous period. The overall available methanol in coastal areas has decreased by 6.34 tons to 87.70 tons [5][8]. 4. Maintenance Status Domestic Methanol Plant Maintenance - Many domestic methanol plants are under maintenance, such as Shaanxi Black Cat, Qinghai Zhonghao, and Shaanxi Huangling. The maintenance periods and losses vary by plant [57]. Overseas Methanol Plant Operation - Overseas methanol plants in Iran, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and other countries have different operating conditions. Some are in the process of restarting, some are operating normally, and some are under maintenance [58]. Olefin Plant Operation - Olefin plants in different regions have different operating conditions. Some are running smoothly, some are under maintenance, and some have plans for future production or maintenance [59].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic pig market is expected to see a double - reduction in supply and demand this week. Pig prices are likely to be weak in the short - term, with a mid - term trend of bottoming out and then oscillating. The LH2601 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 12,000 - 12,400 [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The supply of pigs and pork is expected to decrease this week. The market may experience a double - reduction in supply and demand, with short - term weak pig prices and a mid - term oscillating pattern. Attention should be paid to the monthly group - farm slaughter rhythm and the dynamics of the secondary fattening market [10]. 2. Recent News - China's additional tariffs on pork imports from the US and Canada boost market confidence. After the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, the pig market shows a double - reduction in supply and demand, with short - term weak spot prices and a mid - term oscillating pattern [12]. - Pig demand has weakened in the short - term after the festivals, but spot prices are supported by reduced supply and may bottom out and rebound. The short - term profit of pig farming has worsened, and the enthusiasm for slaughtering large pigs has decreased, supporting the short - term price expectations of pig futures and spot [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish**: Domestic pig supply enters the off - season after the long holiday, and the room for further decline in domestic pig spot prices may be limited [13]. - **Bearish**: There is a pessimistic expectation in the domestic macro - environment due to the Sino - US tariff war, and the year - on - year increase in domestic pig inventory [13]. - **Main Logic**: The market focuses on pig slaughter and fresh meat demand [13]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply - side**: As of June 30, the pig inventory was 424.47 million, a 0.4% month - on - month increase and a 2.2% year - on - year increase. As of the end of June, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.42 million, a 0.02% month - on - month increase and a 4.2% year - on - year increase [10]. - **Demand - side**: After the long holiday, the overall consumer willingness of residents has weakened, suppressing short - term fresh pork consumption [10]. - **Price - related**: The national average spot price is 11,770 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 2601 contract is 405 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [10]. 5. Position Data - The net position of the main players is short, and short positions are increasing [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - In the context of multiple long and short factors, the methanol market is expected to remain in a volatile consolidation next week. Inland, the low inventory of upstream factories, the firm coal prices, and the relatively low methanol prices in production areas support the market, but the high overall inland operating rate, supply pressure in some areas, squeezed olefin profits, and high port inventories limit the upside and downside. In ports, the postponement of Iranian import cargo unloading due to sanctions reduces the downward momentum, but the weak fundamentals lead to high - volatility with both upward and downward movements. Attention should be paid to the follow - up impact of sanctions, Iranian gas restrictions, and coastal MTO operating rates [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Review - The methanol market is affected by multiple factors, with different situations inland and in ports. Inland has cost support but also supply and demand contradictions, while ports are influenced by sanctions and have weak fundamentals [5]. 2. Fundamental Data 2.1 Domestic Methanol Spot Price - From October 17th to October 24th, the spot prices in different regions showed varying degrees of decline. For example, the price in Jiangsu decreased by 1.41%, in Hebei by 1.58%, in Inner Mongolia by 0.61%, and in Fujian by 1.10%, while the price in Lunan remained unchanged [6]. 2.2 Methanol Basis - The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu decreased by 1.41% from October 17th to October 24th, while the futures price remained unchanged. The basis decreased from 0 to - 32 [8]. 2.3 Methanol Production Profits by Process - Coal - to - methanol profit decreased by 77 from October 17th to October 24th. Natural gas - to - methanol profit remained at - 40, and coke oven gas - to - methanol profit decreased by 325 [10]. 2.4 Domestic Methanol Enterprise Load - The national methanol load decreased by 3.81% from last week to this week, and the load in the northwest decreased by 3.55% [12]. 2.5 Outer - Market Methanol Prices and Spreads - From October 17th to October 24th, CFR China decreased by 0.38%, CFR Southeast Asia decreased by 0.61%, and the spread between them increased by 1 [15]. 2.6 Methanol Import Spreads - The spot price decreased by 1.41% from October 17th to October 24th, the import cost decreased by 0.39%, and the import spread decreased by 23 [18]. 2.7 Methanol Traditional Downstream Product Prices - The prices of formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid remained unchanged from October 17th to October 24th [25]. 2.8 Production Profits and Loads of Traditional Downstream Products - Formaldehyde production profit increased by 16, and the load increased by 0.90%. Dimethyl ether production profit increased by 50, and the load increased by 0.82%. Acetic acid production profit increased by 18, and the load increased by 1.94% [26][28][33]. 2.9 MTO Production Profits and Loads - MTO production profit increased by 102, and the MTO/MTP device load decreased by 0.15%. In the East China region, the load increased by 3.02%, and in the South China region, it decreased by 1.93% [37][38]. 2.10 Methanol Port Inventories - No specific inventory data were given, but it was mentioned that port inventories were high [5]. 2.11 Methanol Warehouse Receipts and Effective Forecasts - Warehouse receipts increased by 24.91% from October 17th to October 24th, and effective forecasts decreased by 100% [43]. 3. Maintenance Status 3.1 Domestic Methanol Device Maintenance - Many domestic methanol enterprises are in maintenance, with different maintenance start and end dates, raw materials, and maintenance losses. For example, Shaanxi Black Cat (coke oven gas, 100,000 - ton annual capacity) started maintenance in early November 2024, and the end date is to be determined, with a weekly maintenance loss of 1,950 tons [45]. 3.2 Overseas Methanol Device Operation - Overseas methanol devices have different operation statuses. Some Iranian devices are in the process of restarting or recovery, while some in other countries such as Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and the United States are operating normally [46]. 3.3 Olefin Device Operation - Some olefin devices are in maintenance, while others are operating stably. For example, Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy's methanol and olefin devices stopped for maintenance on March 15th, expected to last for 45 days [47].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal market is in a neutral state with short - term oscillations. It is influenced by the pending final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports and the potential changes in China - Canada trade relations. The market is waiting for more clarity on these factors [8]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Prompt - Not provided in the given content 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the post - holiday off - season, leading to a short - term tight supply in the spot market and a decrease in demand, which suppresses the market. Canadian rapeseed is in the harvesting stage, but China - Canada trade issues have reduced short - term exports and domestic supply expectations. - China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports has been established, and import deposit of 75.8% has been imposed. The final result is still uncertain, pending further development of China - Canada trade relations. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada where the output is higher than expected. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues. The decrease in Ukraine's rapeseed production and the increase in Russia's production offset each other. Future geopolitical conflicts may still support commodity prices [10]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping recognition and imposition of import deposit on Canadian rapeseed; low inventory pressure on rapeseed meal at oil mills. - Bearish factors: Domestic rapeseed meal demand is gradually entering the off - season; there is still a small probability of reconciliation in the final result of China's anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports. - Current main logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [11]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Rapeseed meal inventory is 1.75 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.78% from 1.8 tons last week and a year - on - year decrease of 20.45% compared to 2.2 tons last year. - The spot price is 2480, with a basis of 155, indicating a premium over the futures price. - The price is below the 20 - day moving average and the direction is downward [8]. 3.5 Position Data - The short positions of the main players have decreased, and funds have flowed in [8]. 3.6 Rapeseed Meal Price and Related Data - The spot price of rapeseed meal in Fujian has been fluctuating between 2460 - 2500 from October 15 - 24. The prices of rapeseed meal futures contracts 2601 and 2605 have also shown certain fluctuations during the same period. - The rapeseed meal warehouse receipts have decreased from 9089 on October 15 to 4260 on October 24. - The average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has been fluctuating between 491 - 523 from October 16 - 24 [12][14][16]. 3.7 Other Related Information - Rapeseed meal futures have rebounded after reaching the bottom, while the spot price has been relatively stable, with a slight fluctuation in the spot premium. - The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has shown a slight fluctuation, and the price difference of the 2601 contract has been oscillating at a low level. - The import volume of rapeseed has remained stable in October, and the import cost has been affected by tariffs. - The rapeseed inventory of oil mills has continued to decline, and the rapeseed meal inventory has remained flat week - on - week. - The rapeseed crushing volume of oil mills has remained at a low level. - The price of aquatic fish has rebounded slightly, while the price of shrimp and shellfish has remained stable [17][19][22]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The soybean meal market is expected to remain range - bound in the short term, influenced by the US soybean harvest weather, Sino - US trade negotiations, and the arrival of imported soybeans. The soybean market will also be affected by these factors, along with domestic soybean production and demand [10][11]. - The main factors affecting the soybean meal market include the uncertainty of Sino - US trade negotiations, the inventory level of domestic oil mills, and the weather in the US soybean - producing areas. For soybeans, the cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic demand are positive factors, while the high - yield of Brazilian soybeans and the expected increase in domestic production are negative factors [14][15]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Weekly Hints No specific content provided for weekly hints. 3.2 Recent News - Sino - US trade negotiations are deadlocked, which is a short - term negative for US soybeans. The US soybean market is oscillating above the 1000 - point mark, awaiting further guidance on soybean growth, harvest conditions, and the outcome of Sino - US trade negotiations [13]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China remains high in October. The inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills has declined from a high level. The soybean meal market has returned to a range - bound pattern [13]. - The profit of domestic pig farming has decreased, leading to a low expectation of pig replenishment, which suppresses the price expectation of soybean meal. However, the uncertainty of Sino - US trade negotiations keeps the soybean meal market in a range - bound pattern [13]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: Uncertainty in Sino - US trade negotiations, relatively low inventory of domestic oil mills, and uncertain weather in the US soybean - producing areas [14]. - Bearish factors: High arrival volume of imported soybeans in October and the expected high - yield of South American soybeans [14]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: Cost support from imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic demand [15]. - Bearish factors: High - yield of Brazilian soybeans and increased purchases of Brazilian soybeans by China, as well as the expected increase in domestic soybean production [15]. 3.4 Fundamental Data Soybean Meal - The inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills was 1.1892 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.86% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.04%. The basis is - 23, indicating a discount to the futures price [10]. - The price is above the 20 - day moving average but moving downward. The main short positions have increased, and funds have flowed out [10]. Soybeans - The inventory of soybeans in domestic oil mills was 7.1991 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.63% and a year - on - year increase of 14.38%. The basis is 4, indicating a slight discount to the futures price [11]. - The price is above the 20 - day moving average and moving upward. The main short positions have increased, and funds have flowed in [11]. 3.5 Position Data The main short positions in the soybean meal market have increased, and funds have flowed out. In the soybean market, the main short positions have increased, and funds have flowed in [10][11]. 3.6 Fundamental Impact Factors Overview | Project | Situation | Driver | Next - week Expectation | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Weather | Short - term normal weather in some US soybean - producing areas | Neutral | Good short - term weather in US soybean - producing areas, neutral or bearish | | Import Cost | US soybeans are oscillating, and there are still variables in Sino - US tariffs, trade negotiations, and US soybean weather | Neutral | Expected to oscillate weakly, neutral or bearish | | Oil Mill Pressing | The short - term demand for soybean meal is expected to decline, while the pressing volume of oil mills remains high | Bearish | Short - term demand is weak, and the operation rate of oil mills is expected to decline from a high level, bullish | | Transaction | The enthusiasm for downstream forward - stocking has declined | Bearish | Market transactions are expected to be low, neutral or bearish | | Oil Mill Inventory | The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills has declined from a high level | Bullish | The operation rate of upstream oil mills will decline from a high level, and the inventory of oil mills is expected to continue to decline, bullish | [9] 3.7 Trading Strategies Soybean Meal - Futures: US soybeans are expected to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark in the short term, and soybean meal will also remain range - bound. The M2601 contract is expected to oscillate between 2800 and 3100, and short - term trading within the range is recommended [17]. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [19]. Soybeans - Futures: The A2601 contract of soybeans is expected to oscillate between 4000 and 4200, and short - term trading within the range is recommended [20]. - Options: No specific option strategy provided for soybeans.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term market sentiment is relatively optimistic due to positive signals from Sino - US trade negotiations, and there are expectations for the summit at the end of the month. Geopolitically, the US may increase sanctions on Russia, causing market concerns. Short - term oil prices are expected to remain in a relatively strong oscillatory state, with SC2512 operating in the range of 465 - 475, and long - term investors are advised to wait and see [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - **Crude Oil 2512 Fundamentals**: After the Sino - US high - level economic officials' trade talks, Trump is confident of reaching an agreement with China. The US may impose additional sanctions on Russia. US energy companies increased oil and gas rig numbers for the second consecutive week since September. The overall assessment is neutral [3]. - **Basis**: On October 24, Oman crude oil spot price was $69.03 per barrel, Qatar Marine crude oil spot price was $68.71 per barrel, with a basis of 51.07 yuan per barrel, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price, which is a bullish signal [3]. - **Inventory**: US API crude oil inventory decreased by 2.981 million barrels in the week ending October 17. EIA inventory decreased by 0.961 million barrels in the week ending October 17, against an expected increase of 1.205 million barrels. Cushing region inventory decreased by 0.77 million barrels in the week ending October 17. As of October 24, Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 5.211 million barrels, which is bullish [3]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the price is above the average, with a neutral assessment [3]. - **Main Position**: As of September 23, WTI crude oil main position was long, with an increase in long positions. As of October 21, Brent crude oil main position was long, with a decrease in long positions, which is bearish [3]. 3.2 Recent News - **Sino - US Trade Negotiations**: After the Sino - US high - level economic officials' trade talks, Trump is confident of reaching an agreement with China. The US Treasury Secretary expects the agreement to postpone China's export control expansion on rare earth minerals and magnets and avoid new 100% tariffs on Chinese goods. However, the US Trade Representative's Office has launched a new tariff investigation against China, and China has strongly opposed it [5]. - **US Economic Data**: US consumer price increase in September was slightly lower than expected, with the Fed likely to cut interest rates again at the October 28 - 29 meeting. In September, CPI increased by 0.3% month - on - month and 3.0% year - on - year, while economists predicted 0.4% and 3.1% respectively. Core CPI increased by 0.2% month - on - month in September [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Concerns - **Bullish Factors**: Positive signals from Sino - US trade negotiations, cancellation of US - Russia talks and potential increase in sanctions on Russia [6]. - **Bearish Factors**: Easing of the Middle East situation, risk of US government shutdown, and OPEC+ considering further production increase [6]. - **Market Driver**: Short - term geopolitical conflicts intensify, while there is a medium - to - long - term risk of increased supply [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The settlement price of Brent crude oil decreased from $65.99 to $65.20, a decrease of 1.20%. WTI crude oil decreased from $61.79 to $61.50, a decrease of 0.47%. SC crude oil increased from 454.0 to 466.2, an increase of 2.69%. Oman crude oil increased from $68.16 to $68.31, an increase of 0.22% [7]. - **Spot Market**: The price of UK Brent Dtd increased from $65.98 to $67.04, an increase of 1.61%. WTI increased from $61.79 to $61.50, a decrease of 0.47%. Oman crude oil increased from $68.10 to $69.03, an increase of 1.37%. Shengli crude oil increased from $61.25 to $62.40, an increase of 1.88%. Dubai crude oil increased from $68.21 to $69.05, an increase of 1.23% [9]. - **Inventory Data**: API inventory decreased by 2.981 million barrels in the week ending October 17. EIA inventory decreased by 0.961 million barrels in the week ending October 17 [3]. 3.5 Position Data - **WTI Crude Oil Fund Net Long Position**: As of September 23, the net long position was 102,958, an increase of 4,249 [17]. - **Brent Crude Oil Fund Net Long Position**: As of October 21, the net long position was 52,521, a decrease of 57,085 [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The soybean meal M2601 is expected to oscillate in the range of 2920 - 2980. The domestic soybean meal may maintain an oscillatory pattern in the short - term, influenced by the US soybean trend, high imports of soybeans in October, and the spot price discount [8][9]. - The soybean A2601 is expected to oscillate in the range of 4040 - 4140. The domestic soybean is affected by the high imports of soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean production, but the cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand support the price [10][11]. - The market focuses on the impact of US soybean harvesting weather and the Sino - US trade tariff game for both soybean meal and soybeans [14][15]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - The soybean meal M2601 may maintain an oscillatory pattern. The fundamentals include the US soybean's oscillatory decline, high imports of soybeans in October, and the spot price discount. The inventory decreased compared to last week and last year, but the main position's short - selling increased and funds flowed out [9]. - The soybean A2601 may also oscillate. The fundamentals are affected by the US soybean situation, high imports of soybeans, and the expected increase in domestic soybean production. The cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand support the price [11]. 2. Recent News - The Sino - US tariff negotiation is in a stalemate, which is short - term negative for US soybeans. The US soybean is oscillating above the thousand - point mark, waiting for further guidance on the growth and harvesting of US soybeans, imports of soybeans, and Sino - US tariff negotiations [13]. - The imports of soybeans in China remained high in October. The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills decreased from the high level in October. The soybean meal is expected to oscillate in the short - term [13]. - The profit of pig farming in China decreased, leading to a low expectation of pig replenishment, which suppresses the price expectation of soybean meal. However, the uncertainty of Sino - US trade negotiations keeps the soybean meal oscillating [13]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory pressure of domestic oil mills, and uncertain weather in the US soybean - producing areas [14]. - Bearish factors: high total imports of soybeans in October and the expected high yield of US soybeans [14]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: cost support of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand [15]. - Bearish factors: high yield of Brazilian soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean production [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the data of harvest area, initial inventory, production, total supply, total consumption, end - inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio from 2015 to 2024 [32]. - **Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It presents the data of harvest area, initial inventory, production, imports, total supply, total consumption, end - inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio from 2015 to 2024 [33]. - **Soybean Planting and Harvesting Progress**: It includes the planting and harvesting progress of soybeans in Argentina, the US, and Brazil from 2023/24 to 2025 [34][35][38][39][40][41][42]. - **USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Report**: It shows the planting area, yield per unit, production, end - inventory, new - bean exports, and other data of the US in the past six months [43]. - **Imported Soybean Arrival**: The arrival of imported soybeans decreased from the high level in October, with an overall year - on - year increase [46]. 5. Position Data - No specific position data summary is provided other than the increase of short positions in the main contracts of soybean meal and soybeans and the corresponding capital flow information [9][11].