Report Information - Report Title: Stock Index Futures Morning Report - October 27, 2025 [1] - Report Author: Dushufang from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [1] - Report Date: October 27, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - IC2512 has a discount of 98.73 points, and IM2512 has a discount of 121.24 points, indicating a bearish signal [3] - The Fourth Plenary Session emphasized technological self - reliance, which drove the technology and communication sectors to strengthen. The Sino - US economic and trade consultations reached a preliminary consensus, and the market is expected to open higher. It is recommended to reduce positions appropriately on rallies [3] - The margin trading balance is 24,339 billion yuan, a decrease of 16 billion yuan, showing a neutral signal [3] - IH2512 has a premium of 2.78 points, and IF2512 has a discount of 25.88 points, presenting a neutral situation [3] - In terms of the market performance, IH > IC > IF > IM, and IH, IF, IC, and IM are above the 20 - day moving average, indicating a bullish signal [3] - The main positions of IF and IC have reduced long positions, while the main positions of IH have increased long positions, showing a bullish signal [3] - The Fourth Plenary Session set the tone of supply security priority, manufacturing, technological self - reliance, and expanding domestic demand. The technology sector will rebound. With the preliminary consensus reached in the Sino - US economic and trade consultations, it is recommended to reduce positions on significant intraday rallies. The short - term index will maintain high - level fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the meeting between Chinese and US leaders at the end of this month [3] Summary by Directory Futures Market - **Futures Contract Data**: Data such as contract prices, price changes, trading volumes, index prices, price - to - earnings ratios, price - to - book ratios, dividend yields, spreads, premium/discount ratios, annualized premium/discounts, contract values, delivery dates, and remaining terms are provided for IH, IF, IC, and IM contracts of different expiration dates [4] - **Base and Spread Charts**: Charts of the base and spread of the Shanghai 50 Index and the CSI 500 Index are presented, showing their historical trends [6][9] Spot Market - **Important Index Daily Price Changes**: The daily price change rates of important indexes such as the Shanghai Composite Index, Shanghai 50, CSI 300, Wande All - A, CSI 500, Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext 50, and ChiNext Index are shown [12] - **Style Index Daily Price Changes**: The daily price change rates of style indexes including cyclical, non - cyclical, low - P/E ratio, large - cap, small - cap, value, high - P/E ratio, medium - P/E ratio, and growth indexes are presented [15][18] Market Structure - **AH Share Premium/Discount**: The historical trend chart of the Hang Seng AH Premium Index is provided, reflecting the premium/discount situation of AH shares [21] - **Price - to - Earnings Ratio (PE)**: The historical trend chart of the P/E ratios (TTM) of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and ChiNext Index is shown [24] - **Price - to - Book Ratio (PB)**: The historical trend chart of the P/B ratios of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and ChiNext Index is presented [26] Market Capital - **Stock Market Capital Inflow**: The historical trend chart of A - share capital net inflow and the CSI 300 Index is provided, showing the capital flow situation in the stock market [28] - **Margin Trading Balance**: The historical trend chart of the margin trading balance and the CSI 300 Index is presented, reflecting the margin trading situation [30] - **Northbound Capital Inflow**: The historical trend chart of the net inflow of northbound capital is shown [32] - **Fund Cost**: The historical trend chart of SHIBOR overnight, SHIBOR one - week, and SHIBOR two - week rates is presented, reflecting the short - term fund cost [38] Market Sentiment - **Trading Activity**: The historical trend charts of the turnover rates (based on free - floating market value) of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and ChiNext Index are provided, reflecting the trading activity in the market [41][44] - **Public Mixed - Fund Positions**: Although the title is given, the specific content seems incomplete [46] Other Indicators - **Dividend Yield and Treasury Yield**: The historical trend chart of the dividend yields of the CSI 300, Shanghai 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 Indexes and the ten - year Treasury yield is presented [50] - **Exchange Rate**: The historical trend chart of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan exchange rate is provided [52] - **New Account Openings and Index Tracking**: Although the title is given, the specific content seems incomplete [53] - **Newly Established Fund Scale Changes**: The titles of the newly established scale changes of stock - type, mixed - type, and bond - type funds are given, but the specific content seems incomplete [55][57][59]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Supply side: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 21,308 tons, a 1.14% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. In September 2025, production was 87,260 tons, and next - month production is forecasted to be 89,890 tons, a 3.01% increase. Lithium carbonate imports in September 2025 were 19,597 tons, and next - month imports are forecasted to be 22,000 tons, a 12.26% increase [8][9]. - Demand side: Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 104,347 tons, a 1.49% week - on - week increase, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 18,592 tons, a 3.50% week - on - week increase. Next - month demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may decrease [8]. - Cost side: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is 76,653 yuan/ton, a 0.93% daily increase, with a production loss of 2,342 yuan/ton. The cost of purchased lithium mica is 80,139 yuan/ton, a 1.46% daily increase, with a production loss of 7,835 yuan/ton. The recycling - end production cost is close to the ore - end cost, with average production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt - lake end is 31,477 yuan/ton, significantly lower than the ore - end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [9]. - Overall situation: The imbalance between supply and demand persists, with strong supply and weak demand. The downward trend is difficult to change. The 2601 lithium carbonate contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 78,660 - 80,380 yuan/ton [9][13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Supply: Last week's production increase and future production and import forecasts show a growing supply [8][9]. - Demand: Inventory increases in downstream enterprises and expected future demand changes [8][9]. - Cost: Different raw - material production costs and profit situations [9]. - Other factors: Bullish factors include manufacturers' production cut plans and a decline in lithium carbonate imports from Chile. Bearish factors include high supply at the ore/salt - lake end and weak acceptance from the power - battery end [11][12]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Market Data**: - Futures closing prices of different contracts show price fluctuations, and most contracts have price changes. For example, the 01 contract price decreased by 420 yuan to 79,520 yuan, a 0.53% decrease [16]. - Base - difference data shows that the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate on October 24 was 75,400 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract base difference was - 4,120 yuan/ton, indicating spot discount to futures [9][16]. - Registered warehouse receipts decreased by 60 to 28,699, a 0.21% decrease [16]. - **Upstream Price Data**: - Lithium ore prices increased, with lithium spodumene (6%) rising by 11 dollars to 881 dollars/ton, a 1.26% increase, and lithium mica concentrate (2% - 2.5%) rising by 50 yuan to 1,940 yuan/ton, a 2.65% increase [16]. - Other raw - material prices also had different degrees of changes, such as a 4.01% increase in the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate [16]. - **Supply - side Data**: - Production and cost data of different raw - material lithium carbonate, such as daily lithium spodumene production cost increasing by 708 yuan to 76,653 yuan/ton, a 0.93% increase [19]. - Import and export data of lithium carbonate and lithium ore, such as a 10.61% increase in monthly lithium - concentrate imports [19][20]. - **Demand - side Data**: - Inventory data of downstream enterprises, such as a 1.49% increase in the weekly inventory of lithium iron phosphate to 104,347 tons [19]. - Battery - loading volume data, such as a 21.60% increase in the monthly total power - battery loading volume to 76,000 GWh [20]. 3.3 Supply - Related Content - **Lithium Ore Supply**: - Price trends of lithium ore over the years and production trends of domestic lithium spodumene and lithium mica mines [26][27]. - Import volume and self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore, such as the import volume and proportion of Australian lithium ore [27]. - Supply - demand balance of domestic lithium ore, showing the relationship between production, import, export, and demand in different months [30]. - **Lithium Carbonate Supply**: - Weekly and monthly production, production capacity, and import volume of lithium carbonate from different sources (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt - lake, recycling) [31][32]. - Supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate, with different monthly supply - demand balance situations [38]. - **Lithium Hydroxide Supply**: - Capacity utilization, production, and export volume of lithium hydroxide from different sources (smelting, causticizing) [40][41]. - Supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide, showing the relationship between production, import, export, and demand in different months [43]. 3.4 Lithium Compound Cost - Profit - Different raw - material production costs and profit situations of lithium carbonate, such as the cost and profit of purchased lithium spodumene and lithium mica [46]. - Recycling production cost and profit of lithium carbonate from different waste materials, such as waste lithium - iron - phosphate batteries and ternary materials [48]. - Cost - profit situations in the production and processing of lithium hydroxide, such as the profit and cost of smelting and causticizing methods [51]. 3.5 Inventory - Weekly and monthly inventory data of lithium carbonate, including smelter inventory, downstream inventory, and total inventory [19][53]. - Monthly inventory data of lithium hydroxide, including smelter inventory and downstream inventory [53]. 3.6 Demand - Related Content - **Lithium Battery Demand**: - Battery price trends, production volume, loading volume, and export volume of lithium batteries [55][56]. - Cost data of different types of lithium - battery cells [56]. - **Ternary Precursor Demand**: - Price trends, cost - profit situations, production volume, and supply - demand balance of ternary precursors [61][62][65]. - **Ternary Material Demand**: - Price trends, cost - profit situations, production volume, and import - export volume of ternary materials [67][68][70]. - **Phosphorus Iron/Phosphorus Iron Lithium Demand**: - Price trends, cost - profit situations, production volume, and export volume of phosphorus iron and phosphorus iron lithium [73][76]. - **New - Energy Vehicle Demand**: - Production volume, sales volume, export volume, and sales penetration rate of new - energy vehicles [80][81]. - Retail - wholesale ratio and inventory data of new - energy vehicles [85].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the 01 contract showed an upward trend. The opening price on Monday was 3,143 yuan/ton, and the closing price on Friday was 3,299 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 4.96%. - In terms of supply, the total planned asphalt production in China in June 2025 was 2.398 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.5% and a year - on - year increase of 12.7%. This week, the utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt sample production capacity was 33.0777%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.31 percentage points. The total shipment of sample enterprises was 290,660 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.73%. The production of sample enterprises was 552,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.53%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 676,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.74%. Refineries reduced production this week, alleviating supply pressure, but supply pressure may increase next week. - In terms of demand, the current demand is lower than the historical average. The construction rate of heavy - traffic asphalt was 31.1%, down 0.13 percentage points month - on - month; the construction rate of building asphalt was 9.9%, down 0.46 percentage points month - on - month; the construction rate of modified asphalt was 12.0898%, down 0.51 percentage points month - on - month; the construction rate of road - modified asphalt was 32%, up 3.00 percentage points month - on - month; and the construction rate of waterproofing membranes was 30%, down 3.50 percentage points month - on - month. - In terms of cost, the daily asphalt processing profit was - 567.04 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 30.70%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 687.0586 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 4.36%. The asphalt processing loss increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased. The strengthening of crude oil is expected to support the market in the short term. - In terms of inventory, social inventory was 1.005 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.37%; factory inventory was 710,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.33%; and port diluted asphalt inventory increased. Social and factory inventories continued to decline, while port inventory continued to accumulate. - It is expected that the demand recovery next week will be limited, supply will decrease, and cost support will strengthen. The market may experience a bullish and volatile adjustment [5][6]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents Review and Outlook - This week, the 01 contract rose. The opening price on Monday was 3,143 yuan/ton, and the closing price on Friday was 3,299 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 4.96% [5]. - Supply: The total planned asphalt production in June 2025 was 2.398 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 3.5% and a year - on - year increase of 12.7%. This week, the production capacity utilization rate decreased, shipments increased, production decreased, and maintenance volume increased. Refineries reduced production this week to relieve supply pressure, but supply pressure may increase next week [5]. - Demand: The current demand is lower than the historical average, with most construction rates showing a downward or slightly upward but still sub - average trend [5]. - Cost: The daily asphalt processing profit increased, the weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries decreased, the asphalt processing loss increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased. Crude oil strengthening is expected to support the market in the short term [6]. - Inventory: Social and factory inventories decreased, while port inventory increased. It is expected that demand recovery will be limited next week, supply will decrease, cost support will strengthen, and the market may experience a bullish and volatile adjustment [6]. Asphalt Futures Market - **Price and Basis Trends**: The report presents the historical trends of asphalt basis in Shandong and East China regions, as well as the price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and WTI crude oil, and the spread trends between asphalt contracts, providing a reference for analyzing the relationship between asphalt futures and spot prices and the price trends of related products [9][10][15][16]. - **Spread Analysis**: It includes the spread trends between asphalt contracts (1 - 6 and 6 - 12), the price trends of asphalt and crude oil, crude oil cracking spreads, and the price - to - price ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil, helping to understand the relative price relationships and market trends among different products [12][15][18][22]. Asphalt Spot Market - It shows the price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in East China and Shandong regions, reflecting the price changes in the asphalt spot market [25]. Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: It includes the profit trends of asphalt and the spread trends between coking and asphalt profits, helping to understand the profitability of asphalt production and the profit differences between different production processes [28][31]. - **Supply - Side Analysis**: It covers aspects such as shipment volume, diluted asphalt port inventory, production volume, Ma Rui crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production volume, local refinery asphalt production volume, production capacity utilization rate, and estimated maintenance loss volume. These data reflect the supply - side situation of asphalt, including production, inventory, and raw material supply [34][36][39][43][47][50][53]. - **Inventory Analysis**: It includes exchange warehouse receipts, social inventory, factory inventory, factory inventory - to - stock ratio, etc., reflecting the overall inventory situation of asphalt [56][61][64]. - **Import and Export Analysis**: It shows the export and import trends of asphalt and the import price spread trends of South Korean asphalt, helping to understand the impact of international trade on the domestic asphalt market [67][70]. - **Demand - Side Analysis**: It includes aspects such as petroleum coke production, apparent consumption, downstream demand (including highway construction, new local special bonds, infrastructure investment, and downstream machinery demand), asphalt construction rates (by type and use), and downstream construction conditions. These data reflect the demand - side situation of asphalt [73][76][79][83][88][91][94]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet, including downstream demand, port inventory, factory inventory, social inventory, export volume, import volume, and production volume, helping to understand the overall supply - demand relationship of asphalt [99]. Technical Analysis - The main 01 contract showed an upward trend this week, and it is expected to experience a bullish and volatile adjustment next week [104].

白糖早报——2025年10月27日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 | | | | | 日捷古报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 期价 | 现价 | 现价变动 地区 进口原糖加工后价(50%关税) | | 其美 进口价差 | | 库存情况 | | SR2601 | 5446 | | | | 334 | | -164 国储库存约700万吨 | | SR2605 | 5398 | | | | 382 | -116 进口配额194.5万吨 | | | | -10 柳州 | 5780 | 528 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 原油周报 (10.20-10.24) 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 回顾 2 相关资讯 3 展望 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 回顾与要闻 上周，原油受地缘因素影响自低位大幅上行，纽约商品交易所主力轻质原油期货价格收于每桶61.44美元，周涨7.32%；伦敦布伦特原油主力期货 价格收于每桶64.72美元，周涨6.05%；中国原油期货SC主力合约收至467.6元/桶，周涨8.09%。周初市场仍受美俄和谈影响低位运行，供应端未 受显著影响压制油价，而周中特朗普意外表示暂不考虑与俄罗斯总统普京会面，同时美国财政部加大对俄罗斯石油公司制裁，前所未有直接提 振市场地缘担忧情绪，令有消息称印度与美国进行关税谈判或减少俄油进口，更进一步拉升油价，原油回升至前期 ...

证券代码：839979 碳酸锂期货周报 2025年10月20日-10月24日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1 回顾与展望 2 基本面分析 3 技术面分析 2 1 回顾与展望 3 供给端来看，本周碳酸锂产量为21308吨，高于历史同期平均水平，其中锂辉石产13174吨，环比增加0.08%,高于历史同期平均水 平，锂云母产2891吨，环比增加3.58%,高于历史同期平均水平，盐湖产3227吨，环比增加3.63%,高于历史同期平均水平，回收产2016 吨，环比增加0.95%,高于历史同期水平。 一．回顾与展望 本周01合约为上涨态势，周一开盘价为76260元/吨，周五收盘价为79520元/吨，周涨幅为4.27%。 需求端来看，2025年9月碳酸锂需求量为116801实物吨，环比增加12.28%,预测下月需求量为123198实物 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, nickel prices fluctuated with average trading volume. Russian nickel supplies were tight, while some imported supplies such as Sumitomo arrived. In the industry chain, nickel ore prices remained firm, and as the rainy season in the Philippines approached, mines held prices firm, and shipping freight rates remained stable this week. Nickel iron prices were stable with a slight decline, and the cost line continued to loosen downward. Stainless steel inventories decreased slightly, and the destocking process resumed. The production and sales data of new energy vehicles were good, and the installation of ternary batteries increased, but the overall boost was limited. The long - term oversupply pattern remained unchanged [8]. - From a technical perspective, on the daily K - line, prices fluctuated around the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average moved horizontally. After the price stood above the 20 - day moving average on Friday, the open interest decreased significantly. The MACD green bar was small, showing signs of a golden cross. The KDJ was upward, gradually entering the overbought zone. Overall, price fluctuations were not large [81]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Viewpoints and Strategies - **Nickel Viewpoint**: Nickel prices oscillated this week, with average trading volume. The supply of Russian nickel was tight, and some imported supplies arrived. In the long - term, the supply - demand situation would continue to increase on both sides, but the oversupply pattern would not change. In the new energy industry chain, the substitution of ternary materials was becoming more obvious, and the growth of nickel demand slowed down [8][26]. - **Trading Strategies**: - The main contract of Shanghai nickel would oscillate between 120,000 and 123,800 [9][86]. - The main contract of stainless steel would oscillate widely around the 20 - day moving average [10][87]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Industry Chain Weekly Price Changes**: - Nickel ore prices remained stable, with no change in the prices of red soil nickel ore (CIF) NI1.5%, Fe30 - 35% and NI1.4%, Fe30 - 35% compared to last week [13][19]. - The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate increased by 0.35%, while the price of electroplating - grade nickel sulfate remained unchanged. The price of high - nickel iron decreased by 0.53%, and the price of low - nickel iron remained unchanged [13]. - The prices of Shanghai electrolytic nickel, Shanghai Russian nickel, and Jinchuan's ex - factory price all increased slightly, while the price of 304 stainless steel decreased by 0.27% [14]. - **Nickel Ore Market**: - Nickel ore prices and shipping freight rates remained stable. As of October 23, 2025, the total nickel ore inventory at 14 ports in China was 14.9791 million wet tons, a decrease of 309,300 wet tons from the previous period, a decline of 2.02%. In September 2025, the nickel ore import volume was 6.1145 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 232,200 tons, a decline of 3.66%, and a year - on - year increase of 1.5483 million tons, an increase of 33.91%. The nickel ore market had fair trading this week, and as the Philippines entered the rainy season, future supplies might decline [17]. - **Electrolytic Nickel Market**: - Nickel prices oscillated with average trading volume. Russian nickel supplies were tight, and some imported supplies arrived. In the long - term, the supply - demand situation would continue to increase on both sides, but the oversupply pattern would not change. In September 2025, China's refined nickel production was 36,795 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.27% and a year - on - year increase of 25.03%. The estimated production in October 2025 was 37,150 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.96% and a year - on - year increase of 20.42%. In September 2025, China's refined nickel import volume was 28,367.371 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4,181 tons, an increase of 17.29%, and a year - on - year increase of 22,779 tons, an increase of 407.65%. The export volume was 14,112.095 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 936 tons, a decline of 6.22%, and a year - on - year increase of 3,807 tons, an increase of 36.94% [25][26][29]. - **Nickel Iron Market**: - Nickel iron prices were stable with a slight decline. In September 2025, China's nickel pig iron actual production in metal terms was 21,700 tons, a month - on - month decline of 5.06% and a year - on - year decline of 13.64%. In September 2025, China's nickel iron import volume was 1.085 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 211,000 tons, an increase of 24.2%, and a year - on - year increase of 348,000 tons, an increase of 47.2%. The nickel iron inventory in September was 202,900 physical tons, equivalent to 19,900 nickel tons [44][48][51]. - **Stainless Steel Market**: - The price of 304 stainless steel decreased slightly this week. In September, the stainless steel crude steel production was 3.4267 million tons, of which the 300 - series production was 1.7627 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.43%. The latest stainless steel import volume was 120,300 tons, and the export volume was 418,500 tons. As of October 24, the stainless steel inventory in Wuxi was 601,100 tons, in Foshan was 302,600 tons, and the national inventory was 1.0274 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13,800 tons [59][64][70]. - **New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales**: - In September, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.617 million and 1.604 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 23.7% and 24.6% respectively. From January to September, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 11.243 million and 11.228 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 35.2% and 34.9% respectively [75]. 3.3 Technical Analysis On the daily K - line, prices fluctuated around the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average moved horizontally. After the price stood above the 20 - day moving average on Friday, the open interest decreased significantly. The MACD green bar was small, showing signs of a golden cross. The KDJ was upward, gradually entering the overbought zone. Overall, price fluctuations were not large [81]. 3.4 Industry Chain Summary - **Nickel Ore**: Neutral. Quotations were stable, shipping freight rates were flat, and the rainy season was approaching [84]. - **Nickel Iron**: Neutral. Nickel iron prices were stable with a slight decline, and the cost line decreased to some extent [84]. - **Refined Nickel**: Slightly bearish. The long - term oversupply pattern remained unchanged, and inventories continued to accumulate at home and abroad [84]. - **Stainless Steel**: Neutral. Inventories declined [84]. - **New Energy**: Neutral. Production data were good, and the installation of ternary batteries increased year - on - year [84].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, fuel oil prices rose in tandem with crude oil due to geopolitical impacts. High - sulfur fuel oil closed at 2844 yuan/ton, up 8.26% for the week, and low - sulfur fuel oil closed at 3267 yuan/ton, up 6.73% for the week [3]. - The market structure of Asian low - sulfur fuel oil has weakened due to weak downstream demand and sufficient supply. The spot discount of 0.5% sulfur marine fuel remains at its widest level in more than five years. Singapore's low - sulfur fuel oil arbitrage arrivals in October are expected to increase to 2.7 - 2.9 million tons from 2.3 - 2.4 million tons in September, and the market fundamentals are under pressure [3]. - The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market is expected to fluctuate within a range. The supply of non - sanctioned resources is relatively tight, and stable marine fuel demand provides some support. However, recent supply may put pressure on the market. Crude oil is expected to remain strongly volatile in the short term, and fuel oil is expected to follow suit. High - sulfur fuel oil can be traded in the 2750 - 2900 yuan/ton range, and low - sulfur fuel oil in the 3200 - 3350 yuan/ton range [3]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Viewpoint - Fuel oil prices followed crude oil higher last week. High - sulfur fuel oil closed at 2844 yuan/ton with a weekly increase of 8.26%, and low - sulfur fuel oil closed at 3267 yuan/ton with a weekly increase of 6.73%. The low - sulfur fuel oil market is under pressure, while the high - sulfur fuel oil market is expected to range - bound. Operation suggestions are given for both high - and low - sulfur fuel oils [3]. 2. Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures prices**: The FU main contract futures price rose from 2688 to 2710, an increase of 0.81%. The LU main contract futures price dropped from 3175 to 3128, a decrease of 1.47% [4]. - **Spot prices**: Prices of various types of fuel oil in different regions all increased. For example, the price of Zhoushan high - sulfur fuel oil rose from 469.00 to 475.00, an increase of 1.28%, and the price of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil rose from 364.60 to 383.73, an increase of 5.25% [5]. 3. Fundamental Data - **Consumption data**: Graphs show the consumption data of Singapore fuel oil, Chinese fuel oil, and Shandong fuel oil coking margin from 2021 - 2025, but specific numerical summaries are not provided in the text [6][7][8]. 4. Inventory Data - Singapore fuel oil inventory data from August 6 to October 22 is presented. For example, on October 22, the inventory was 2744.9 barrels, an increase of 509 barrels compared to the previous record [9]. 5. Spread Data - A graph shows the high - low sulfur futures spread, but specific numerical summaries are not provided in the text [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the 01 contract showed an upward trend this week, with a weekly increase of 4.94%. Supply is expected to increase next week, demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support has risen. The disk is expected to have a bullish oscillatory adjustment [4][5]. - For polysilicon, the 01 contract showed a downward trend this week, with a weekly decline of 0.74%. Supply production is expected to increase in the short - term and adjust in the medium - term, demand is expected to recover continuously, and cost support remains stable. The disk is expected to have a bullish oscillatory adjustment [7][8]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Review and Outlook 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - **Price**: The 01 contract opened at 8500 yuan/ton on Monday and closed at 8920 yuan/ton on Friday, with a weekly increase of 4.94% [4]. - **Supply**: This week's industrial silicon supply was 101,000 tons, a 2.02% increase from the previous week. The sample enterprise output was 49,905 tons, a 3.36% increase. The expected monthly start - up rate is 69.23%, a 7.29 - percentage - point increase from last month [4]. - **Demand**: This week's industrial silicon demand was 94,000 tons, a 27.03% increase from the previous week. In different sectors, polysilicon inventory is high, organic silicon is in a loss state, and the aluminum alloy inventory is high [5]. - **Cost**: The production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang is 3141 yuan/ton, and the cost support in the dry season has increased [5]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory decreased by 0.53% to 559,000 tons, sample enterprise inventory decreased by 0.17% to 167,700 tons, and major port inventory increased by 2.50% to 123,000 tons [5]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - **Price**: The 01 contract opened at 52,700 yuan/ton on Monday and closed at 52,305 yuan/ton on Friday, with a weekly decline of 0.74% [7]. - **Supply**: Last week's polysilicon output was 29,500 tons, a 4.83% decrease from the previous week. The predicted October production is 134,500 tons, a 3.46% increase from last month [7]. - **Demand**: In different sectors, silicon wafer production is in a loss state, battery cell production is in a loss state, and component production is profitable. The production of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components is expected to decrease in the short - term and recover in the medium - term [7][8]. - **Cost**: The average cost of polysilicon N - type material in the industry is 36,050 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 16,930 yuan/ton [7]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory is 258,000 tons, a 1.97% increase from the previous week, at a high level compared to the same period in history [8]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread**: The report presents the trends of industrial silicon price - basis and the spread between delivery products over time [14]. - **Inventory**: It shows the historical trends of industrial silicon inventory in different regions and types, including delivery warehouses, ports, and sample enterprises [18][19][20]. - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: The historical trends of industrial silicon production, capacity utilization, and start - up rates in different regions are presented [22][23][25]. - **Cost**: The cost trends of industrial silicon in sample regions, including Sichuan, Yunnan, and Xinjiang, are shown [29][30]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: Weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables of industrial silicon are provided, showing the relationships among production, import, export, consumption, and balance [31][32][35]. - **Downstream Industries**: - **Organic Silicon**: Trends of DMC price, production, downstream product prices, import - export, and inventory are presented [37][38][39]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: Trends of price, supply, inventory, production, and demand (related to the automotive industry) are shown [46][47][51]. - **Polysilicon**: Trends of price, cost, inventory, supply - demand balance, and the trends of its downstream silicon wafers, battery cells, photovoltaic components, accessories, and power generation are presented [54][55][60]. 3.3 Technical Analysis - **Industrial Silicon (SI)**: The 01 contract showed an upward trend this week. Based on price and volume data, it is expected to have a bullish oscillatory adjustment next week [77][78]. - **Polysilicon (PS)**: The 01 contract showed a downward trend this week. Based on price and volume data, it is expected to have a bullish oscillatory adjustment next week [79][80].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, cotton continued to fluctuate and rebound. The previous price was oversold, and with the new cotton coming onto the market and China - US negotiations in progress, the bearish sentiment has eased [4]. - Currently, new cotton is about to be listed in large quantities. The previous bearish news has been gradually digested, and the purchase price of seed cotton has slightly increased. The futures main contract 01 continued to fluctuate and rebound [5]. - Bullish factors include a slight increase in the purchase price of seed cotton and a year - on - year decrease in commercial inventory [6]. - Bearish factors include ongoing trade negotiations, high export tariffs to the US, a decline in overall foreign trade orders, increased inventory, the upcoming large - scale listing of new cotton, and weak consumption during the "Golden September and Silver October" period [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review - This week, cotton continued to fluctuate and rebound. The national cotton output is expected to be 728000 tons, with Xinjiang hitting a new high. According to the ICAC September report, the output and consumption in the 2025/2026 season are both 25.5 million tons. The USDA September report shows that the output in the 2025/2026 season is 25.622 million tons, consumption is 25.872 million tons, and the ending inventory is 15.925 million tons. In September, textile and clothing exports were $24.42 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 1.4%. China's cotton imports in September were 100000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.7%; cotton yarn imports were 130000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.18%. According to the Ministry of Agriculture's October forecast for the 2025/2026 season, the output is 6.36 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.22 million tons [4]. 3.2 Daily Tips - New cotton is about to be listed in large quantities, and the previous bearish news has been gradually digested. The purchase price of seed cotton has slightly increased, and the futures main contract 01 continued to fluctuate and rebound [5]. 3.3 Today's Focus - Bullish factors: a slight increase in the purchase price of seed cotton and a year - on - year decrease in commercial inventory [6]. - Bearish factors: ongoing trade negotiations, high export tariffs to the US, a decline in overall foreign trade orders, increased inventory, the upcoming large - scale listing of new cotton, and weak consumption during the "Golden September and Silver October" period [7]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Production and Sales Forecast (September)**: In the 2025/2026 season, the total global cotton output is expected to be 25.622 million tons, consumption is 25.872 million tons, and the ending inventory is 15.925 million tons. Different countries have different production, consumption, import, and inventory trends [13][14]. - **ICAC Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/2026 season, the global output is 2.59 million tons, an increase of 40000 tons (+1.6%); consumption is 2.56 million tons, basically flat; the ending inventory is 1.71 million tons, an increase of 26000 tons (+1.6%); the global trade volume is 970000 tons, an increase of 36000 tons (+3.9%) [15]. - **Ministry of Agriculture's Forecast for the 2025/2026 Season**: The output is 6.36 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.22 million tons [4]. 3.5 Position Data No information is provided in the report regarding position data.