Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The urea market is expected to be volatile today. The domestic supply of urea is still in significant oversupply, with high daily production and开工 rates, and inventory has increased again. Industrial and agricultural demand is weak, but international urea prices are strong, and export policies have not been more liberal than expected [4]. - The main logic for market trends is the marginal changes in international prices and domestic demand, and the main risk point is the change in export policies [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: The urea futures market has been volatile recently, returning to fundamentals after the "anti - involution" sentiment cooled. Domestic supply has high daily production and开工 rates, and inventory has increased. Industrial demand (such as for compound fertilizers and melamine) and agricultural demand are both expected to decline. The overall domestic supply of urea exceeds demand, while export profits are strengthening, and export policies have not been more liberal than expected. The spot price of the delivery product is 1810 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2509 contract is 84, with a premium - discount ratio of 4.6%, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 145.9 million tons (-1.8), which is bearish [4]. - **Futures Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is flat, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The main contract of urea is volatile. International urea prices are strong, export policies have not been more liberal than expected, and the domestic supply is still in significant oversupply. It is expected that UR will be volatile today [4]. - **Leverage and Risks**: Bullish factors include strong international prices; bearish factors include high开工 and daily production, and weak domestic demand [5]. Spot and Futures Market and Inventory Data - **Spot Market**: The price of the spot delivery product is 1810 (unchanged), Shandong spot is 1820 (+10), Henan spot is 1810 (unchanged), and FOB China is 2746 [6]. - **Futures Market**: The 01 contract price is 1726 (-21), the UR05 contract price is 1771 (-17), and the UR09 contract price is 1715 (-11). The basis is 84 (+21) [6]. - **Inventory**: The warehouse receipt is 3823 (unchanged), UR comprehensive inventory is 145.9 million tons, UR manufacturer inventory is 101.9 million tons, and UR port inventory is 44.0 million tons [6]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 - 2024, the urea industry has shown continuous growth in production capacity, production, and consumption. The production capacity growth rates from 2019 - 2024 are 8.9%, 15.5%, 11.4%, 8.4%, 14.1%, and 13.5% respectively. The consumption growth rates from 2019 - 2024 are 12.8%, 17.9%, 2.6%, 0.3%, 5.9%, and 8.4% respectively. The import dependence has generally shown a downward trend [10].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2025-8-15 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，7 月中国官方制造业 PMI 为 49.3%，环比降 0.4 个百分点，连续 4 个月收缩，财新7月制造业 PMI 从 50.4 降至 49.5，同样收缩，7 月出口 3217.8 亿美元，同 比增 7.2%。"反内卷"政策推动商品预期改善，但情绪降温后回归基本面。短期油价震荡回落。 供需端，农膜淡季，短期开工略有恢复，但仍处于偏低水平。当前LL交割品现货价7280（+0）， 基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2509合约基差-63，升贴水比例-0.9%，偏空； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存50.5万吨（-7.1），中性； • 4. 盘面： LLDPE ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The International Energy Agency (IEA) indicates that the global oil market is moving towards a record - high surplus next year due to slower demand growth and increased supply. IEA also lowers the expected incremental demand for crude oil this year and next. OPEC slightly reduces this year's demand increment, and EIA crude oil inventories accumulate more than expected. These factors lead to a significant decline in oil prices during the US trading session. However, the upcoming US - Russia negotiation and the possibility of secondary sanctions if the meeting goes poorly add geopolitical concerns and support to oil prices, causing large price fluctuations. Short - term, the price is expected to range between 480 - 490, and long - term, it is recommended to hold long positions [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - **Fundamentals**: The US Treasury Secretary says that if the Trump - Putin meeting goes badly, sanctions or secondary tariffs may increase. The IEA reports that this year's global crude oil supply surplus will exceed expectations, with supply growth more than three times the demand growth rate. It expects global crude oil supply to increase by 2.5 million barrels per day this year and 1.9 million barrels per day next year, higher than previous forecasts [3]. - **Basis**: On August 13, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $67.66 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude oil was $66.66 per barrel, with a basis of 9.23 yuan per barrel, and the spot was at par with the futures [3]. - **Inventory**: US API crude oil inventories for the week ending August 8 increased by 1.519 million barrels (expected to decrease by 0.941 million barrels), EIA inventories for the same period increased by 3.036 million barrels (expected to decrease by 0.275 million barrels), and Cushing area inventories increased by 0.045 million barrels. As of August 13, Shanghai crude oil futures inventories remained at 4.767 million barrels [3]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the price was below the average [3]. - **Main Position**: As of July 29, the main long positions in WTI and Brent crude oil both increased [3]. - **Expectation**: Short - term, the price will range between 480 - 490, and long - term, long positions should be held [3]. 3.2 Recent News - **Geopolitical News**: Trump threatens Putin with "serious consequences" if he hinders the Ukraine peace process but also mentions the possibility of a US - Russia - Ukraine leaders' meeting. Macron says Trump agrees that Ukraine must participate in territorial discussions, and Zelensky says Trump supports post - war security guarantees. The US Treasury Secretary warns of increased sanctions if the Trump - Putin meeting is unsuccessful [5]. - **Supply - Demand News**: The IEA reports that the global crude oil supply surplus will exceed expectations this year, with supply growth more than three times the demand growth rate. Supply growth is mainly driven by non - OPEC+ producers. The market is starting to show oversupply, and global oil inventories reached a 46 - month high in June [5]. - **Interest - Rate News**: After data shows mild inflation in the US in July, the market believes there is a 99.9% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September. The Treasury Secretary thinks the Fed may cut rates by 50 basis points due to weak employment data [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Concerns - **Positive Factors**: The US may impose secondary sanctions on Russian energy exports, and the Sino - US tariff exemption period may be extended again [6]. - **Negative Factors**: There is hope for a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and the US has ongoing tense trade relations with other economies [6]. - **Market Drivers**: In the short term, geopolitical conflicts decrease while trade tariff risks increase. In the medium - to - long - term, supply will increase after the peak season [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Futures Quotes**: The settlement prices of Brent, WTI, SC, and Oman crude oil changed. Brent decreased by $0.49 (- 0.74%), WTI decreased by $0.52 (- 0.82%), SC decreased by 3.80 (- 0.77%), and Oman increased by $0.48 (0.71%) [7]. - **Spot Quotes**: The spot prices of various crude oils also changed. For example, UK Brent Dtd decreased by $0.65 (- 0.96%), WTI decreased by $0.52 (- 0.82%), Oman decreased by $1.13 (- 1.64%), etc. [9]. - **Inventory Trends**: API and EIA inventory data from May to August show fluctuations, with significant increases in inventories in some weeks [10][15]. 3.5 Position Data - **WTI Crude Oil Fund Net Long Positions**: As of July 29, the net long positions increased by 2,692, and as of August 5, they decreased by 14,194 [18]. - **Brent Crude Oil Fund Net Long Positions**: As of July 29, the net long positions increased by 33,959, and as of August 5, they decreased by 20,375 [20].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The domestic methanol market shows significant regional differences in expectations. The inland market is expected to be in a tight supply - demand balance, with the market likely to fluctuate strongly this week. The port market has obvious supply - demand contradictions, with expected continuous inventory accumulation, and is expected to be in a state of fluctuating with both rises and falls. Overall, methanol prices are expected to fluctuate this week, with MA2601 expected to operate in the range of 2470 - 2520 [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The domestic methanol market has regional differences. Inland supply increases with the resumption of some plants, but low inventory and external procurement demand from CTO enterprises maintain a tight balance. The port is expected to see continuous inventory accumulation due to concentrated shipments from Iran and the shutdown of large olefin plants. Methanol futures are supported but have limited upward momentum, and prices are expected to fluctuate this week [5]. 2. Multi - Short Concerns - **Positive factors**: Some domestic plants are shut down, Iranian methanol production has decreased, the port inventory is at a low level, new acetic acid plants are put into production, and northwest CTO factories are purchasing methanol externally [6]. - **Negative factors**: Some previously shut - down domestic plants have resumed production, there will be concentrated arrivals at the port in the second half of the month, traditional demand is in the off - season, coal - to - methanol has profit margins and is actively selling, and some factories in the production area have accumulated inventory [7]. 3. Fundamental Data - **Spot price**: The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2410 yuan/ton, with a 01 - contract basis of - 69, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price [5]. - **Inventory**: As of August 7, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports is 80.33 tons, a cumulative increase of 15.30 tons from the previous period. The total available and tradable methanol in coastal areas has increased by 13.20 tons to 49.83 tons [5]. - **Market price changes**: There are price changes in various regions. For example, the price in Hebei has increased by 1.10% week - on - week, while the price in Jiangsu has decreased by 0.42% [8][9]. - **Production profit**: Coal - to - methanol has a profit of 300 yuan/ton, natural gas - to - methanol has a loss of 120 yuan/ton, and coke oven gas - to - methanol has a profit of 485 yuan/ton [20]. - **Operating rate**: The national weighted average operating rate is 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% from the previous week. The operating rate in the northwest region is 81.54%, a decrease of 3.55% from the previous week [8]. - **External market price**: The CFR price in China is 274 US dollars/ton, and the CFR price in Southeast Asia is 334 US dollars/ton [8]. 4. Maintenance Status - **Domestic plants**: Many domestic methanol plants are in maintenance, including those in the northwest, north, east, southwest, and northeast regions, with different maintenance start and end times and losses [55]. - **Foreign plants**: Some Iranian plants are in the process of restarting or have uncertain operating conditions, while most plants in other countries are operating normally, with some in maintenance [56]. - **Olefin plants**: Some olefin plants are operating stably, some are in maintenance, and some have uncertain restart times [57].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Views of the Report - The domestic soybean meal is expected to enter a moderately bullish and volatile pattern in the short - term, influenced by the rebound of US soybeans and the rise of rapeseed meal. However, the high arrival of imported soybeans in August and the discount of spot prices will limit the upward movement of the futures price. The soybean meal M2601 is expected to oscillate between 3140 and 3200 [8]. - The domestic soybeans are affected by the rise of US soybeans and technical consolidation. The high arrival of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean production will limit the upward movement of the price. The soybean A2511 is expected to oscillate between 4040 and 4140 [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips No information provided in the content. 2. Recent News - The progress of China - US tariff negotiations is short - term bullish for US soybeans. The US soybean market is expected to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark, awaiting further guidance on US soybean growth, harvest, and the arrival of imported soybeans, as well as the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations [12]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China remains high in August. Affected by the relatively bullish data in the August USDA report and the rise of rapeseed meal, the domestic soybean meal is in a moderately bullish and volatile pattern in the short - term [12]. - The decline in domestic pig - breeding profits leads to a low expectation of pig restocking. The recovery of soybean meal demand and the uncertainty of China - US trade negotiations may lead the soybean meal to return to a range - bound pattern [12]. - The continued increase in domestic soybean meal inventory, the potential weather speculation in US soybean - producing areas, and the variables in the China - US tariff war cause the short - term moderately bullish oscillation of soybean meal, waiting for the clear production of South American soybeans and the follow - up of the China - US tariff war [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: slow customs clearance of imported soybeans; low inventory of domestic soybean meal at oil mills; uncertain weather in US soybean - producing areas [13]. - Bearish factors: high arrival of domestic imported soybeans in July; the end of Brazilian soybean harvest and the continuous expectation of a bumper South American soybean harvest [13]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: cost support of imported soybeans for the domestic soybean market; expected increase in domestic soybean demand [14]. - Bearish factors: continuous expectation of a bumper Brazilian soybean harvest and China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans; expected increase in domestic soybean production in the new season [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Transaction Data**: From August 4th to 13th, the transaction average price of soybean meal fluctuated between 2981 and 3097, and the trading volume varied from 5.25 to 31.15 million tons. The transaction average price of rapeseed meal was between 2600 and 2680, and the trading volume was relatively small, ranging from 0 to 0.3 million tons [15]. - **Soybean and Meal Price Data**: From August 5th to 13th, the futures prices of soybeans and soybean meal generally showed an upward trend. The spot price of soybeans remained stable at 4300, and the spot price of soybean meal increased from 2910 to 3000 [17]. - **Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Data**: From August 1st to 13th, the soybean meal warehouse receipt decreased from 10950 to 8925. The soybean (bean - one) warehouse receipt decreased from 13402 to 12865, and the soybean (bean - two) warehouse receipt decreased from 2600 to 2900 [19]. - **Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: The global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets from 2015 to 2024 show the changing trends of harvest area, production, consumption, and inventory [31][32]. - **Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress**: It includes the planting and harvest progress of soybeans in Argentina, the US, and Brazil from 2023/24 to 2024/25, reflecting the development situation of the soybean industry in different regions [33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40]. - **USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports**: From February to August 2025, the data of the USDA monthly supply - demand reports show the changes in harvest area, yield, production, and other indicators [41]. 5. Position Data No information provided in the content. Other Market Information - The weekly export inspection of US soybeans has rebounded both month - on - month and year - on - year [42]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in August has declined from the high level, with an overall year - on - year increase [44]. - The soybean inventory of oil mills has slightly increased, and the soybean meal inventory has remained basically flat [45]. - The unfulfilled contracts of oil mills have rebounded to a high level, indicating an increase in short - term stocking demand [47]. - The soybean crushing volume of oil mills has declined from the high level, and the soybean meal production in June has increased year - on - year [48]. - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans has fluctuated slightly, and the import soybean futures profit has also fluctuated slightly [50]. - The pig inventory has maintained an upward trend, the sow inventory has remained flat year - on - year and slightly declined month - on - month [52]. - The pig price has recently risen and then fallen, and the piglet price has remained weak [54]. - The proportion of large pigs in China has increased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs has slightly increased [56]. - The domestic pig - breeding profit has recently declined [58].

Group 1: Report General Information - Report date: August 14, 2025 [1] - Report author: Xiang Weiyi from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [1] - Author's qualification: F3051846 (从业资格证号), Z0015764 (投资咨询证号) [1] - Contact information: 0575 - 85226759 [1] Group 2: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - For gold, due to the US Treasury Secretary's statement on potential sanctions against Russia and high expectations of a 50BP interest rate cut in September, the gold price first rose and then fell, and rose again in the morning. The high expectation of interest rate cuts supports the gold price [4]. - For silver, with the same statement from the US Treasury Secretary and a significant increase in domestic risk appetite, the silver price strengthened during the day. The recovery of commodity sentiment still supports the silver price [6]. Group 4: Summary by Catalog 1. Previous Day's Review - Gold: The US Treasury Secretary's statement led to a rise - then - fall in the gold price. US and European stock markets rose, US bond yields fell (10 - year US bond yield down 6 basis points to 4.231%), the US dollar index fell 0.28% to 97.80, and the offshore RMB appreciated slightly against the US dollar. COMEX gold futures rose 0.24% to $3407.00 per ounce [4]. - Silver: The silver price rose during the day due to the US Treasury Secretary's statement and increased domestic risk appetite. Similar to gold, US and European stock markets rose, US bond yields fell, the US dollar index fell, and the offshore RMB appreciated. COMEX silver futures rose 1.44% to $38.55 per ounce [6]. 2. Daily Tips - Today's key events include the State Council Information Office press conference, US July PPI, intensive speeches by Fed members, and UK Q2 GDP [4]. 3. Today's Focus - 09:30: Australian employment population and unemployment rate for July [15] - 10:00: State Council Information Office press conference on the achievements of the "14th Five - Year Plan" digital China construction [15] - 14:00: UK Q2 GDP preliminary value [15] - 20:30: US July PPI, initial jobless claims for the week ending August 9 [15] - 22:00: US St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem participates in a CNBC program [15] - Next day 02:00: US Richmond Fed President Barkin (2027 FOMC voter) participates in an online seminar [15] 4. Fundamental Data - Gold: The basis is - 3.2 (spot at a discount to futures), the inventory of gold futures warrants is 36045 kg (unchanged), the 20 - day moving average is downward with the K - line below it, and the main net long position is decreasing [4][5]. - Silver: The basis is - 26 (spot at a discount to futures), the inventory of Shanghai silver futures warrants is 1151209 kg (decreased by 753 kg day - on - day), the 20 - day moving average is downward with the K - line below it, and the main net long position is decreasing [6]. 5. Position Data - Gold: On August 13, 2025, the long position of the top 20 in Shanghai gold increased by 0.24% to 214,449, the short position increased by 3.78% to 60,932, and the net position decreased by 1.09% to 153,517 [29]. - Silver: ETF holdings decreased slightly but were higher than the same period in the past two years, and Shanghai silver warrants continued to decrease but were higher than last year's level, while COMEX silver warrants increased slightly [36][40].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market structure has weakened, with the spot spread of 0.5% sulfur marine fuel dropping to the lowest discount level in more than four months due to expected short - term inventory increases. The high - sulfur marine fuel demand from downstream remains relatively stable. - The basis shows that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. - Singapore's fuel oil inventory increased in the week of August 6, which is bearish. - The price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is sloping down. The main positions in both high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil are short, suggesting a bearish view. - Overnight crude oil was weak, and the short - term market lacks clear long or short guidance. The fuel oil is expected to continue to trade in a low - level range. FU2509 will operate between 2700 - 2740, and LU2510 between 3420 - 3460 [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market is affected by inventory increase expectations. The high - sulfur fuel oil demand is relatively stable. The basis is positive, the inventory increased, the price is below the 20 - day line, and the main positions are short. The fuel oil is expected to trade in a low - level range [3]. 2. Multi - and Short - term Concerns - **Likely Positive Factors**: Potential intensification of sanctions against Russia [4]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The optimism on the demand side remains to be verified, and the upstream crude oil price is weak [4]. - **Market Drivers**: Supply is affected by geopolitical risks, and demand is neutral [4]. 3. Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The prices of FU and LU main contracts decreased. The basis of FU increased from 141 to 206 yuan/ton, and the basis of LU increased from 85 to 133 yuan/ton [5]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of most fuel oil products in the spot market changed. For example, the price of Zhoushan high - sulfur fuel oil decreased by 9 dollars/ton (-1.83%), and the price of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil increased by 4.06 dollars/ton (1.03%) [6]. 4. Spread Data The report mentions the high - low sulfur futures spread, but no specific analysis is provided [12]. 5. Inventory Data - Singapore's fuel oil inventory in the week of August 6 was 2074.9 million barrels, an increase of 47 million barrels compared to the previous period [3][8].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The urea market is in a state of obvious oversupply in China, with high daily production and operating rates, and weak domestic demand. Although the international price is strong and export profits are increasing, the export policy has not been unexpectedly liberalized. The urea futures market is expected to be volatile today [4][5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Contents Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: After the "anti - involution" sentiment subsided, the urea market returned to fundamentals. Domestic supply has high daily production and operating rates, and inventories are accumulating again. Industrial demand for compound fertilizers and melamine is declining, and agricultural demand is also expected to fall. The overall supply of domestic urea exceeds demand, while export profits are strengthening, but the export policy has not been unexpectedly liberalized. The spot price of the delivery product is 1810 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2509 contract is 63, with a premium - discount ratio of 4.5%, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 145.9 million tons (-1.8 million tons), which is bearish [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is flat, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The main urea contract is volatile. The international urea price is strong, the export policy has not been unexpectedly liberalized, and the domestic oversupply is still obvious. It is expected that the UR will move in a volatile manner today [4]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Urea - From 2018 to 2024, the urea industry has seen continuous growth in capacity, production, and consumption. The capacity growth rate has fluctuated, reaching a high of 15.5% in 2020. The import dependence has generally shown a downward trend, from 18.6% in 2018 to 8.4% in 2023. The consumption growth rate also fluctuated, with a peak of 17.9% in 2020. In 2025E, the capacity is expected to reach 4906, with a growth rate of 11.0% [10]. Spot and Futures Quotes - **Spot**: The price of the spot delivery product and Shandong and Henan spot prices are all 1810, unchanged; the FOB China price is 2748 [6]. - **Futures**: The 01 contract price is 1747 (-9), the UR05 contract price is 1788 (-8), and the UR09 contract price is 1726 (-1). The basis is 63 (+9) [6]. Inventory - The UR comprehensive inventory is 145.9 million tons (-1.8 million tons), the UR manufacturer inventory is 101.9 million tons, and the UR port inventory is 44.0 million tons [6].

1、基本面：玻璃生产利润修复，行业冷修速度放缓，开工率、产量下降至历史同期低位；深加工 订单不及往年同期，终端需求偏弱；偏空 2、基差：浮法玻璃河北沙河大板现货1088元/吨，FG2601收盘价为1214元/吨，基差为-126元，期 货升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国浮法玻璃企业库存6184.70万重量箱，较前一周增加3.95%，库存在5年均值上方运 行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向上；中性 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期： "反内卷"情绪仍存，但玻璃基本面疲弱，短期预计震荡运行为主。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 玻璃早报 2025-8-14 每日观点 玻璃： 影响因素总结 利多： 1、"反内卷"政策影响下，浮法玻璃行业存产能出清预期。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - For PTA, under continuous low processing margins, there have been more changes in PTA plants recently. However, in terms of price, the cost side lacks support and the downstream polyester demand is average during the off - season. It is expected that the PTA spot price will fluctuate in the short term and the spot basis will stabilize, with attention to subsequent PTA plant and downstream polyester load changes [5]. - For MEG, the port inventory will be adjusted widely this month, and the increase is not sustainable. The supply - demand structure of ethylene glycol will be basically balanced from August to September, and the demand support will gradually strengthen over time. The fundamental structure of ethylene glycol is neutral to positive, and it is expected that the short - term low - level support of ethylene glycol will be strong, with attention to plant changes [6]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Previous Day Review - Not provided in the content 3.2. Daily Reminders - Not provided in the content 3.3. Today's Focus - Not provided in the content 3.4. Fundamental Data PTA - **Price**: The PTA futures fluctuated and closed down yesterday. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was average, with individual polyester factories replenishing goods. The spot basis was stable. The price negotiation range of August goods was around 4,675 - 4,710, and today's mainstream spot basis is 09 - 13. The processing fee decreased from 439.48 yuan/ton to 154.49 yuan/ton [5][12]. - **Inventory**: The PTA factory inventory is 3.7 days, a decrease of 0.12 days compared to the previous period [5]. - **Supply - demand Balance**: The PTA supply - demand balance table shows the production, consumption, and inventory data from January 2024 to December 2025, with fluctuations in supply and demand and inventory [10]. MEG - **Price**: On Wednesday, the price of ethylene glycol fluctuated and weakened. The spot negotiation was around a premium of 75 - 78 yuan/ton over the 09 contract. The price of ethylene glycol in the night session fluctuated narrowly. The internal - market price index of ethylene glycol decreased from 4,202 yuan/ton to 4,482 yuan/ton [7][12]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in the East China region is 47.22 tons, an increase of 4.48 tons compared to the previous period [7]. - **Supply - demand Balance**: The ethylene glycol supply - demand balance table shows the production, consumption, and inventory data from January 2024 to December 2025, with changes in supply and demand and inventory [11]. 3.5. PTA Daily View - **Fundamentals**: The PTA futures fluctuated and closed down yesterday, with average spot market negotiation and stable basis [5]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4,692, and the 09 contract basis is 0, indicating the spot price is at par with the futures price [5]. - **Inventory**: The PTA factory inventory decreased, showing a bullish signal [5]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, showing a bearish signal [5]. - **Main Position**: The net short position decreased, showing a bearish signal [5]. - **Expectation**: The PTA spot price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the spot basis will stabilize [5]. 3.6. MEG Daily View - **Fundamentals**: The price of ethylene glycol fluctuated and weakened on Wednesday, with average market negotiation [7]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4,488, and the 09 contract basis is 82, indicating the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [7]. - **Inventory**: The East China port inventory increased, showing a bearish signal [7]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, showing a bearish signal [7]. - **Main Position**: The net short position increased, showing a bearish signal [6]. - **Expectation**: The port inventory will be adjusted widely this month, and the supply - demand structure will be basically balanced from August to September. The short - term low - level support of ethylene glycol is expected to be strong [6]. 3.7. Influencing Factors Summary - **Positive Factors**: Some PTA plants are planned for maintenance in August, which is expected to improve the supply - demand situation [8]. - **Negative Factors**: At the demand end, with the end of the export rush and the off - season of domestic demand, the terminal demand is definitely weakening [8]. 3.8. Current Main Logic and Risk Points - The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and for the market rebound, attention should be paid to the upper resistance level [9].