交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-8-14） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤： 1、基本面：近期下游市场观望情绪再起，中间环节离市现象增多，下游焦企采购节奏放缓，近期主流 煤企线上竞拍成交涨跌互现，但因产地多数煤矿暂有前期订单拉运，短期煤价支撑较强，但部分焦企考 虑煤价已涨至高位有谨慎签单的情况；偏多 2、基差：现货市场价1200，基差-45；现货贴水期货；偏空 3、库存：钢厂库存791.1万吨，港口库存321.5万吨，独立焦企库存790.2万吨，总样本库存1902.8万吨， 较上周增加45.9万吨；偏空 4、盘面：20日线向上，价格在20日线上方；偏多 5、主力持仓：焦煤主力净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：部分钢厂接涨焦炭第六轮，钢厂开工高位，焦炭刚需支撑较强，且焦企出货顺畅， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of edible oils are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic edible oil supply is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for the 24/25 season is relatively high, the Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, demand has improved, Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US biodiesel policy for soybean oil supports increased biodiesel consumption. The domestic tariff increase on Canadian rapeseed has led to a rise in the rapeseed sector, and the domestic edible oil fundamentals are neutral with stable import inventories. Sino-US and Sino-Canadian relations have eased, which impacts the market at the macro level [2][3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Views on Different Oils Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that Malaysian palm oil production in May decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with the production decline falling short of expectations. Currently, shipping survey agencies indicate that Malaysian palm oil export data for this month has increased by 4% month-on-month, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,656, with a basis of 80, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [2]. - **Inventory**: On July 4, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 880,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% higher year-on-year [2]. - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [2]. - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased [2]. - **Expectation**: The soybean oil Y2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,350 - 8,750 [2]. Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season [3]. - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 9,525, with a basis of 35, indicating a neutral situation [3]. - **Inventory**: On July 4, the port inventory of palm oil was 380,000 tons, down 10,000 tons from the previous period and 34.1% lower year-on-year [3]. - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [3]. - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main palm oil contract have decreased [3]. - **Expectation**: The palm oil P2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,300 - 9,700 [3]. Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10,150, with a basis of 86, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [4]. - **Inventory**: On July 4, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 650,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% higher year-on-year [4]. - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [4]. - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have decreased [4]. - **Expectation**: The rapeseed oil OI2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,800 - 10,200 [4]. Recent Bullish and Bearish Analysis - **Bullish Factors**: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. It is the palm oil production reduction season [5]. - **Bearish Factors**: Edible oil prices are historically high, and domestic edible oil inventories are continuously increasing. The macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of related edible oils is high [5]. - **Current Main Logic**: The global edible oil fundamentals are relatively loose [5]. Supply and Demand Indicators - **Supply Indicators**: Include import soybean inventory [6], soybean oil inventory [8], soybean meal inventory [10], oil mill soybean crushing [12], palm oil inventory [17], rapeseed oil inventory [20], rapeseed inventory [22], and total domestic edible oil inventory [24]. - **Demand Indicator**: Soybean oil apparent consumption [14].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot is strong, the domestic inventory starts to increase, and the tire operating rate is at a high level. The market has support below, and short - long trading is recommended [4] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot is strong, the domestic inventory starts to increase, and the tire operating rate is at a high level. The market has support below, and short - long trading is recommended [4] 2. Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is increasing, and downstream consumption is high. The spot price is resistant to decline, and the domestic anti - involution situation exists. Automobile production and sales are seasonally declining, and tire production is at a record high in the same period, while tire industry exports are falling [4][6][23][29] - **Inventory**: The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has decreased week - on - week and year - on - year. The inventory in Qingdao area has decreased week - on - week but increased year - on - year. The exchange inventory has increased recently, and the Qingdao area inventory has changed slightly [4][14][17] - **Price**: The spot price of 23 - year full - latex (non - deliverable) increased on August 13th, and the Qingdao Free Trade Zone has US dollar quotes [8][11] 3. Multiple and Short Factors and Main Risk Points - **Likely to Rise**: High downstream consumption, resistant spot price, and domestic anti - involution [6] - **Likely to Fall**: Increasing supply and non - seasonal destocking in Qingdao area [6] 4. Basis - The spot price is 14,800, and the basis is - 1,000, showing a bearish signal. The basis strengthened on August 13th [4][35]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Industrial silicon supply production scheduling has increased, demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support has risen. Industrial silicon 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8640 - 9040 [6]. - For polysilicon, supply production scheduling continues to increase, demand shows continuous recovery overall, and cost support remains stable. Polysilicon 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 50315 - 53285 [8]. - The main bullish factors are cost - upward support and manufacturers' shutdown and production - reduction plans; the main bearish factors are slow post - holiday demand recovery and strong supply but weak demand in downstream polysilicon. The main logic is that capacity mismatch leads to strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change [11][12]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - Industrial Silicon - **Fundamentals**: Last week, industrial silicon supply was 84,000 tons, a 3.70% increase; demand was 78,000 tons, an 11.43% increase. Polysilicon inventory is at a high level, silicon wafers and battery cells are in a loss state, while components are profitable. Silicone inventory is at a low level, with a production profit of 479 yuan/ton, and its comprehensive开工率 is 74.84%, flat compared to the previous period and higher than the historical average. Aluminum alloy ingot inventory is at a high level, with an import loss of 612 yuan/ton, and the recycled aluminum开工率 is at a low level. The cost of sample oxygen - passing 553 production in Xinjiang is in a loss state, and the cost support during the wet season has weakened [6]. - **Basis**: On August 12, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 360 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory was 547,000 tons, a 1.30% increase; sample enterprise inventory was 170,050 tons, a 0.81% decrease; major port inventory was 118,000 tons, a 0.84% decrease [6]. - **Disk**: MA20 is upward, and the 11 - contract futures price closed below MA20 [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing [6]. - **Expectation**: Industrial silicon 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8640 - 9040 [6]. 3.2 Daily Views - Polysilicon - **Fundamentals**: Last week, polysilicon production was 29,400 tons, a 10.94% increase, and the August production schedule is expected to be 130,500 tons, a 22.76% increase compared to the previous month. Silicon wafer production, battery cell production, and component production are showing different trends. The average cost of N - type polysilicon is 36,280 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 9,720 yuan/ton [8]. - **Basis**: On August 12, the price of N - type dense material was 46,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was - 4800 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: Weekly inventory was 233,000 tons, a 1.74% increase, at a high level compared to the same period in history [8]. - **Disk**: MA20 is upward, and the 11 - contract futures price closed above MA20 [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net long, and long positions are decreasing [8]. - **Expectation**: Polysilicon 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 50315 - 53285 [8]. 3.3 Market Overview - **Industrial Silicon**: The prices of most futures contracts decreased, and the basis, inventory, production, and开工率 of different regions and specifications showed different changes [15]. - **Polysilicon**: The prices of most futures contracts decreased, and the prices, production, inventory, and profit of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components also changed [17]. 3.4 Other Charts and Tables - **Industrial Silicon Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread Trends**: Showed the historical trends of the basis and the spread between 421 and 553 of industrial silicon [20]. - **Industrial Silicon Inventory**: Displayed the historical inventory changes of industrial silicon in different regions and types [22]. - **Industrial Silicon Production and Capacity Utilization Trends**: Presented the historical production and开工率 changes of industrial silicon in different regions and specifications [26]. - **Industrial Silicon Component Cost Trends**: Showed the historical price trends of electricity, silica, graphite electrodes, and reducing agents in the main production areas [31]. - **Industrial Silicon Cost - Sample Region Trends**: Displayed the historical cost and profit trends of industrial silicon in Sichuan, Yunnan, and Xinjiang [33]. - **Industrial Silicon Weekly and Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Tables**: Presented the weekly and monthly supply - demand balance situations of industrial silicon [35][38]. - **Industrial Silicon Downstream - Organic Silicon**: Included price, production, import - export, and inventory trends of DMC and its downstream products [41][43][46]. - **Industrial Silicon Downstream - Aluminum Alloy**: Included price, supply, inventory, production, and demand trends related to aluminum alloy [49][52][54]. - **Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon**: Included cost, price, inventory, production, supply - demand balance, and trends of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [60][63][66].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate is shifting towards demand - led. Due to capacity mismatch, the situation of strong supply and weak demand persists, and the downward trend is difficult to change. Lithium carbonate 2511 is expected to oscillate in the range of 80,700 - 84,340 [8][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Fundamentals** - Supply: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 19,556 tons, with a 13.24% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. In July 2025, production was 81,530 physical tons, and next - month's production is forecasted to be 84,200 physical tons, a 3.27% increase [8]. - Demand: Last week, the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 94,598 tons, a 0.99% week - on - week increase, and that of sample enterprises of ternary materials was 16,559 tons, a 0.36% week - on - week increase. Next month's demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may be reduced [8]. - Cost: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is 78,069 yuan/ton, a 6.11% daily increase, resulting in a loss of 1,176 yuan/ton; the cost of purchased lithium mica is 80,830 yuan/ton, a 2.19% daily increase, resulting in a loss of 5,942 yuan/ton. The cost of the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, with average production enthusiasm, while the quarterly cash production cost of the salt - lake end is 31,745 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins [8]. - **Basis**: On August 12, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 78,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was - 4,520 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: The smelter's inventory was 50,999 tons, a 1.84% week - on - week decrease, lower than the historical average; the downstream inventory was 48,159 tons, a 4.95% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average; other inventories were 43,260 tons, a 1.41% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average; the total inventory was 142,418 tons, a 0.49% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average [8]. - **Market**: The MA20 is upward, and the price of the 11 - contract closed above the MA20 [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing [8]. - **Expectation**: In July 2025, the import volume of lithium carbonate was 18,000 physical tons, and next - month's import volume is forecasted to be 18,500 physical tons, a 2.78% increase. The daily CIF price of 6% concentrate has increased, lower than the historical average [8]. - **Likely Positive Factors**: Manufacturers' plans for production suspension and reduction, a month - on - month decrease in the volume of lithium carbonate imported from Chile, and a decline in the import volume of lithium spodumene [9]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Sustained high supply at the ore/salt - lake end with limited decline, and insufficient willingness of the power battery end to take delivery [10]. 3.2 Lithium Carbonate Market Overview - **Yesterday's Market Overview**: The prices of various lithium - related products showed different trends. For example, the price of lithium spodumene (6%) increased from 840 to 910 US dollars/ton, a 8.33% increase; the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased from 74,500 to 78,000 yuan/ton, a 4.70% increase [15]. 3.3 Supply - Side Data - **Lithium Ore** - Production Costs: The daily production cost of lithium spodumene was 78,069 yuan/ton, a 6.11% increase; the daily production cost of lithium mica was 80,830 yuan/ton, a 2.19% increase [17]. - Production and Import: In July 2025, the monthly production of lithium carbonate was 81,530 tons, and the monthly import volume was 17,697.62 tons [17]. - **Lithium Hydroxide** - Production and Supply: The weekly operating rate was 45.58%, a 2.77% decrease. The monthly production was 25,170 tons, a 2.94% increase [17]. 3.4 Demand - Side Data - **Lithium Battery** - Production and Sales: The monthly production of lithium iron phosphate was 252,200 tons, a 9.70% increase; the monthly production of lithium iron phosphate lithium was 290,700 tons, a 1.86% increase. The monthly export of lithium iron phosphate lithium was 2,031,541 kg, a 115.75% increase [17]. - **New Energy Vehicles** - Production and Sales: The production was 1,268,000 vehicles, a 0.16% decrease; the sales were 1.329 million vehicles, a 1.68% increase [17]. 3.5 Inventory - **Lithium Carbonate Inventory**: The total weekly inventory was 142,418 tons, a 0.49% increase. The smelter's inventory decreased by 1.84% week - on - week, while the downstream inventory increased by 4.95% week - on - week [8][17]. - **Lithium Hydroxide Inventory**: The weekly inventory data is not provided comprehensively, but the monthly inventory data shows certain trends in different periods [17].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年8月13日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 1、基本面：美国7月核心CPI继续走高，但市场认为通胀温和，9月降息预期继续升 温，金价震荡；美国三大股指全线收涨，欧洲三大股指收盘涨跌不一；美债收益率 涨跌不一，10年期美债收益率涨0.97个基点报4.291%；美元指数跌0.44%报98.07， 离岸人民币对美元升值报7.1856；COMEX黄金期货跌0.15%报3399.60美元/盎司；中 性 6、预期：今日关注德国7月CPI，美联储委员密集讲话。美国7月核心CPI继续走高， 但市场认为通胀温和，特朗普再提起诉鲍威尔，金价大幅震荡。沪金溢价维持至- 1 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The soybean meal market is expected to enter a moderately bullish and volatile pattern in the short term. The price of soybean meal M2601 is expected to fluctuate between 3080 and 3140. The market is influenced by factors such as the weather in US soybean - growing areas, Sino - US trade tariffs, and the arrival of imported soybeans [8]. - The soybean market is currently neutral. The price of soybean A2511 is expected to fluctuate between 4000 and 4100. The market is affected by factors like the cost of imported soybeans, the harvest situation in South America, and the expected increase in domestic soybean production [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - The soybean meal market is moderately bullish in the short term, with the price of M2601 ranging from 3080 to 3140. The soybean market is neutral, with the price of A2511 ranging from 4000 to 4100 [8][10]. 2. Recent News - The progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations is short - term bullish for US soybeans. The US soybean planting weather is relatively good recently, and the US soybean market is expected to fluctuate near the 1000 - point mark. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China remained high in July, and the inventory of soybean meal in oil mills continued to rise. The soybean meal market has returned to a volatile pattern [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Soybean Meal Bullish Factors**: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills, and uncertain weather in US soybean - growing areas [13]. - **Soybean Meal Bearish Factors**: High arrival volume of imported soybeans in July, the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest, and the expected high yield of South American soybeans [13]. - **Soybean Bullish Factors**: Cost support from imported soybeans and expected increase in domestic soybean demand [14]. - **Soybean Bearish Factors**: Expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans, increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans by China, and expected increase in domestic soybean production [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in East China is 2920, with a basis of - 171, indicating a discount to futures. The inventory of oil mills is 100.35 tons, a 3.66% decrease from last week and a 31.74% decrease from the same period last year [8]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price in Jiamusi is 4300, with a basis of 266, indicating a premium to futures. The inventory of oil mills is 710.56 tons, an 8.38% increase from last week and a 0.59% decrease from the same period last year [10]. 5. Position Data - For soybean meal, the long positions of the main contract decreased, and funds flowed out [8]. - For soybeans, the long positions of the main contract increased, and funds flowed in [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side shows that refineries have recently reduced production, easing supply pressure, but there may be an increase in supply pressure next week. The total planned production of domestic asphalt in August 2025 is 2.413 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. The current demand is lower than the historical average, with the overall demand recovery in the peak season falling short of expectations and remaining sluggish. The inventory situation is mixed, with social inventory continuously increasing, factory inventory continuously decreasing, and port inventory continuously increasing. Crude oil prices are strengthening, providing short - term cost support. It is expected that the futures market will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2510 contract fluctuating in the range of 3482 - 3530 [8][9][10]. - The factors affecting the market include the relatively high cost of crude oil, which provides some support; however, there is insufficient demand for high - priced products, and the overall demand is declining, with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States. The main logic is that the supply pressure remains high, and the demand recovery is weak [12][13][14]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply Side**: In August 2025, the total planned production of domestic asphalt is 2.413 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. The sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt this week is 33.4372%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.32 percentage points. The shipment of sample enterprises is 280,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.90%. The output of sample enterprises is 558,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.79%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment is 616,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.99%. Refineries have recently reduced production, easing supply pressure, but there may be an increase in supply pressure next week [8]. - **Demand Side**: The construction rate of heavy - traffic asphalt is 31.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the construction rate of building asphalt is 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month, lower than the historical average; the construction rate of modified asphalt is 15.8681%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.33 percentage points, higher than the historical average; the construction rate of road - modified asphalt is 29%, a month - on - month increase of 2.00 percentage points, higher than the historical average; the construction rate of waterproofing membranes is 27.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.50 percentage points, lower than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [8]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 449.48 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 6.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 845.6671 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 11.25%. The asphalt processing loss has decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has increased. With the strengthening of crude oil, it is expected that the short - term support will strengthen [9]. - **Basis**: On August 12, the spot price in Shandong was 3650 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 10 - contract was 144 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [9]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory is 1.367 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.79%; the factory inventory is 679,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.99%; the port diluted asphalt inventory is 250,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 27.27%. The social inventory is continuously increasing, the factory inventory is continuously decreasing, and the port inventory is continuously increasing [9]. - **Expectation**: It is expected that the futures market will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2510 contract fluctuating in the range of 3482 - 3530 [10]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market Analysis - **Basis Trend**: The report presents the basis trends of asphalt in Shandong and East China from 2020 to 2025 [19][20]. - **Spread Analysis**: - **Main Contract Spread**: The report shows the spread trends of asphalt 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts from 2020 to 2025 [24][25]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: The report presents the price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [27][28]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: The report shows the crack spreads of asphalt against SC, WTI, and Brent crude oils from 2020 to 2025 [30][31][32]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil - Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: The report presents the price ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 [34][36]. 3.3 Asphalt Spot Market Analysis - **Market Price Trends in Different Regions**: The report shows the price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [37][38]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: - **Asphalt Profit**: The report presents the asphalt profit trends from 2019 to 2025 [40][41]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: The report shows the profit spread trends between coking and asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [43][44][45]. - **Supply - Side Analysis**: - **Shipment Volume**: The report presents the weekly shipment volume trends of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2025 [46][47]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: The report shows the domestic diluted asphalt port inventory trends from 2021 to 2025 [48][49]. - **Production Volume**: The report presents the weekly and monthly production volume trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [51][53]. - **Maya Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: The report shows the price trend of Maya crude oil and the monthly production trend of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 to 2025 [54][56]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Production**: The report presents the local refinery asphalt production trends from 2019 to 2025 [57][58]. - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: The report shows the asphalt capacity utilization rate trends from 2021 to 2025 [60][61]. - **Estimated Maintenance Loss Volume**: The report presents the estimated maintenance loss volume trends from 2018 to 2025 [62][63]. - **Inventory Analysis**: - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: The report shows the exchange warehouse receipt trends (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) from 2019 to 2025 [65][66][68]. - **Social Inventory and Factory Inventory**: The report presents the social inventory (70 samples) and factory inventory (54 samples) trends from 2022 to 2025 [69][70]. - **Factory Inventory - to - Stock Ratio**: The report shows the factory inventory - to - stock ratio trends from 2018 to 2025 [73][74]. - **Import - Export Situation**: The report presents the export and import trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025, as well as the import price spread trend of South Korean asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [76][77][80]. - **Demand - Side Analysis**: - **Petroleum Coke Production**: The report presents the petroleum coke production trends from 2019 to 2025 [82][83]. - **Apparent Consumption**: The report shows the apparent consumption trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [85][86]. - **Downstream Demand**: - **Highway Construction and Fixed - Asset Investment in Transportation**: The report presents the trends of highway construction and fixed - asset investment in transportation from 2020 to 2025 [88][89]. - **New Local Special Bonds and Infrastructure Investment Completion Rate**: The report shows the trends of new local special bonds from 2019 to 2025 and the year - on - year infrastructure investment completion rate from 2020 to 2024 [90]. - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: The report presents the sales volume trends of asphalt concrete pavers, the monthly working hours of excavators, the domestic sales volume trends of excavators, and the sales volume trends of road rollers from 2019 to 2025 [92][93][95]. - **Asphalt Construction Rate**: - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Construction Rate**: The report presents the heavy - traffic asphalt construction rate trends from 2019 to 2025 [97][98]. - **Asphalt Construction Rate by Use**: The report shows the construction rate trends of building asphalt and modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [100]. - **Downstream Construction Situation**: The report presents the construction rate trends of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [102][103][105]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The report presents the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to August 2025 [107][108].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report indicates that the fuel oil market is expected to continue its low - level oscillatory operation. The high - sulfur fuel oil (FU2509) is expected to operate in the range of 2720 - 2770, and the low - sulfur fuel oil (LU2510) is expected to operate in the range of 3460 - 3500. Overnight crude oil showed weak performance, and the short - term market lacks clear long or short guidance. The market is waiting for the US - Russia talks [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - The Singapore 380CST high - sulfur fuel oil spot spread has narrowed to the smallest discount level in six weeks, and the Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market structure has strengthened slightly. Although regional supply is still abundant, it is expected that the market will not reach the lows of previous weeks. Supply is expected to decrease from September, which will support the market [3]. - The basis of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is 141 yuan/ton, and that of low - sulfur fuel oil is 85 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [3]. - Singapore's fuel oil inventory in the week of August 6 was 2074.9 million barrels, an increase of 47 million barrels [3]. - The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward [3]. - The high - sulfur main contract's short position is decreasing, while the low - sulfur main contract's long position is increasing [3]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - term Analysis - **Likely Positive Factors**: There is a possibility of increased sanctions against Russia [4]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The optimism on the demand side remains to be verified, and the upstream crude oil price is weak [4]. - **Market Drivers**: The supply side is affected by geopolitical risks, and the demand is neutral [4]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Basis**: Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil basis is 141 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil basis is 85 yuan/ton, with spot premiums over futures [3]. - **Inventory**: Singapore's fuel oil inventory in the week of August 6 was 2074.9 million barrels, an increase of 47 million barrels [3]. 3.4 Spread Data - **Futures Price Changes**: The high - sulfur fuel oil (FU) main contract futures price decreased by 5 to 2769, a decrease of 0.18%. The low - sulfur fuel oil (LU) main contract futures price increased by 30 to 3499, an increase of 0.86%. The basis of high - sulfur fuel oil decreased by 77 to 141, a decrease of 35.30%, and the basis of low - sulfur fuel oil decreased by 57 to 85, a decrease of 40.02% [5]. - **Spot Price Changes**: The price of Zhoushan high - sulfur fuel oil increased by 5 to 492, an increase of 1.03%. The price of Zhoushan low - sulfur fuel oil increased by 6 to 506, an increase of 1.20%. The price of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil decreased by 9.73 to 392.54, a decrease of 2.42%. The price of Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil decreased by 3 to 486.5, a decrease of 0.61%. The price of Middle - East high - sulfur fuel oil decreased by 10.11 to 373.18, a decrease of 2.64%. The price of Singapore diesel decreased by 8.63 to 619.66, a decrease of 1.37% [6]. 3.5 Inventory Data - Singapore fuel oil inventory data from May 28 to August 6 shows fluctuations, with an increase of 47 million barrels to 2074.9 million barrels in the week of August 6 [8].

CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-08-13原油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 原油2509： 1.基本面：美国财政部长贝森特周二表示，美方贸易官员将在未来两到三个月内再次与中方官员会面，讨 论两国经济关系的未来；数据显示美国7月通胀温和，投资者对美联储在9月降息的押注加码，这表明特朗 普总统大规模征收进口关税对商品价格的传导效应迄今仍较为有限； OPEC上调明年全球石油需求预测，并 下调了对美国和OPEC+以外其他产油国供应增长的预测，暗示市场供应将收紧；中性 2.基差：8月12日，阿曼原油现货价为68.79美元/桶，卡塔尔海洋原油现货价为67.88美元/桶，基差15.96 元/桶，现货升水期货； ...