交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-08-06燃料油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 5 价差数据 库存数据 燃料油： 1、基本面：亚洲低硫燃料油市场结构小幅回升，但受供应充足及现货船货竞争性报价影响，含硫0.5%船 用燃料油现货升水进一步下跌至四个多月新低。贸易商表示，随着西方套利船货陆续抵达新加坡，8月新 加坡区域库存将显著累积；中性 2、基差：新加坡高硫燃料油404.53美元/吨，基差为150元/吨，新加坡低硫燃料油为505.5美元/吨，基差 为157元/吨，现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：新加坡燃料油7月30日当周库存为2027.9万桶，增加37万桶；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方，20日线偏下；偏空 5、主力持仓： ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-8-6 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：近期尿素盘面震荡。此前反内卷情绪导致的原料端涨幅开始回落。国内供应方面， 日产及开工率仍处于偏高位置，库存再度累库。需求端，工业需求中复合肥开工持续回落，三聚 氰胺开工亦回落，农业淡季需求持续回落。国内尿素整体供过于求仍明显，出口政策未超预期放 开。交割品现货1800（+0），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： UR2509合约基差28，升贴水比例1.6%，偏多； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存147.7万吨（+4.6），偏空； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线走平，收盘价位于20日线上，偏多； • 5. 主力持仓：UR主力持仓净多，翻多，偏多； • 6. 预期：尿素主力合约盘面 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For LLDPE, the overall fundamentals are neutral, with cost support as a positive factor and weak demand as a negative factor. It is expected to show a volatile trend today due to factors such as the decline of the increase driven by macro - stability policies, the off - season of agricultural film demand, and weak downstream demand [4][6]. - For PP, the overall fundamentals are also neutral, with cost support as a positive factor and weak demand in sectors like pipes and plastic weaving as a negative factor. It is also expected to show a volatile trend today considering the decline of the increase driven by macro - stability policies and weak downstream demand [7][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: The official manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, still in the contraction range. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced a growth - stabilizing plan. The short - term increase pulled by anti - involution sentiment and oil prices have declined. In the supply - demand aspect, it is the off - season for agricultural films, and other film demands are flat with many downstream enterprises under maintenance. The current spot price of the LLDPE delivery product is 7270 (-30), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2509 contract is - 53, with a premium - discount ratio of - 0.7%, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 49.1 tons (-7.2), which is neutral [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is flat, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish signal [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, also a bearish signal [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate today due to factors such as the decline of the increase driven by macro - stability policies, the off - season of agricultural film demand, and weak downstream demand [4]. - **Leverage Factors**: Positive factor is cost support; negative factor is weak demand [6]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the official manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, still in the contraction range. The short - term increase pulled by anti - involution sentiment and oil prices have declined. In the supply - demand aspect, it is the off - season for downstream demand, and affected by high temperature and heavy rain in summer, the demands for pipes and plastic weaving are weak. The current spot price of the PP delivery product is 7100 (-50), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [7]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2509 contract is 5, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.1%, which is neutral [7]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 56.5 tons (-1.6), showing a bearish signal [7]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is flat, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish signal [7]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, also a bearish signal [7]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate today due to factors such as the decline of the increase driven by macro - stability policies and weak downstream demand in pipes and plastic weaving [7]. - **Leverage Factors**: Positive factor is cost support; negative factor is weak demand [9]. Spot and Futures Market Data - **LLDPE**: The current spot price of the delivery product is 7270 (-30), and prices of different futures contracts such as the 09 contract, L01, L05, etc. have corresponding changes. The basis of the 09 contract is - 53 (-74). The warehouse receipt is 5816 (0), and there are details about import prices and spreads [10]. - **PP**: The current spot price of the delivery product is 7100 (-50), and prices of different futures contracts such as the 09 contract, PP01, PP05, etc. have corresponding changes. The basis of the 09 contract is 5 (-71). The warehouse receipt is 12305 (0), and there are details about import prices and spreads [10]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, production, net import volume, and other indicators have changed. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to be 4319.5 with a growth rate of 20.5% [15]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, production, net import volume, and other indicators have changed. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to be 4906 with a growth rate of 11.0% [17].

重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年8月6日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 1、基本面：特朗普表示本周决定美联储新理事，金价震荡回升；美国三大股指全线 收跌，欧洲三大股指收盘涨跌不一；美债收益率多数上涨，10年期美债收益率涨 1.17个基点报4.208%；美元指数涨0.01%报98.76，离岸人民币对美元小幅贬值报 7.1886；COMEX黄金期货涨0.25%报3435美元/盎司；中性 2、基差：黄金期货782.5，现货778.8，基差-3.7，现货贴水期货；中性 3、库存：黄金期货仓单36009千克，增加120千克；偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向上，k线在20日均线上方；偏多 5、主 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply pressure of PVC has rebounded, with domestic demand recovery being sluggish. The current demand may remain weak, and the PVC2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4925 - 5037. The main logic is the strong overall supply pressure and the poor recovery of domestic demand [6][9][14]. - There are both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages. Negative factors include the rebound of overall supply pressure, high inventory levels with slow consumption, and weak domestic and external demand [13]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Fundamentals**: Overall bearish. In July 2025, PVC production was 2.00461 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.67%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 76.84%, with no change from the previous week. The production of calcium carbide enterprises decreased by 4.06% month - on - month, while that of ethylene enterprises increased by 12.82% month - on - month. The downstream overall开工率 was 42.05%, a slight increase but still below the historical average. The cost of calcium carbide and ethylene has increased, and production scheduling may be under pressure [6][8]. - **Basis**: On August 4, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4980 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was - 1 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot price was at a discount to the futures price, a neutral situation [11]. - **Inventory**: Factory inventory decreased by 3.28% month - on - month, with calcium carbide factory inventory decreasing by 3.12% and ethylene factory inventory decreasing by 3.85%. However, social inventory increased by 4.91% month - on - month, and the inventory days of production enterprises decreased by 3.33%. Overall, it is bearish [11]. - **Disk**: The MA20 was upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed below the MA20, a neutral situation [11]. - **Main Position**: The main position was net short, with an increase in short positions, a bearish situation [11]. 3.2 PVC Market Overview - Various indicators such as enterprise prices, monthly spreads, downstream开工率, profit, and cost showed different degrees of changes. For example, the prices of some enterprises decreased, and the profit of calcium carbide and ethylene methods showed different degrees of improvement or decline [16]. 3.3 PVC Futures Market - **Basis Trend**: The report presents the basis trend of PVC from 2022 to 2025, along with the market price in East China and the closing price of the main contract [18][19]. - **Price and Volume Trends**: It shows the price, trading volume, and position changes of PVC futures in July - August 2025, including the opening price, highest price, lowest price, closing price, and the net position changes of the top 5 and 20 seats [21][22]. - **Spread Analysis**: Presents the spread trends of the main contracts from 2024 to 2025, such as the 1 - 9 spread and 5 - 9 spread [24][25]. 3.4 PVC Fundamentals - **Calcium Carbide Method - Related**: Analyzes the price, cost, profit,开工率, and inventory of raw materials such as blue charcoal, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, and caustic soda from multiple years [27][30][32][34]. - **PVC Supply Trend**: Shows the capacity utilization rate, production, and maintenance volume of calcium carbide and ethylene methods from 2018 - 2025, as well as the daily and weekly production of PVC [39][41]. - **Demand Trend**: Analyzes the sales volume, pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, and downstream开工率 of PVC from multiple years, and also examines the relationship between PVC demand and real estate and social financing data [43][45][47][55][58]. - **Inventory**: Presents the exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide and ethylene factory inventories, social inventory, and inventory days of production enterprises from 2019 - 2025 [59][60]. - **Ethylene Method**: Analyzes the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and price spreads from multiple years [61][62]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Shows the monthly supply - demand trends of PVC from June 2024 to July 2025, including production, import, export, demand, and inventory [64][65].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The fundamental situation of methanol is becoming more polarized, and it is expected that the regional characteristics of its price trends will become more prominent. The port market is likely to see inventory accumulation this week, with weakening demand, leading to a predicted weak adjustment. The inland market has healthy supply - demand fundamentals, but is affected by the weak port market, and is expected to maintain a narrow - range oscillatory adjustment. Overall, the methanol price is expected to oscillate this week, with MA2509 running between 2360 - 2410 yuan/ton [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The fundamental situation of methanol 2509 is neutral. The basis shows that the spot price is at a premium to the futures, which is bullish. The inventory situation is bullish, the disk is neutral, the main position is net short with a reduction in short positions, which is bearish. It is expected that the methanol price will oscillate this week, with MA2509 ranging from 2360 - 2410 yuan/ton [5]. 2. Multi - and Short - Term Concerns - **Bullish factors**: Some domestic devices such as Yulin Kaiyue and Xinjiang Xinya have stopped production; the methanol production in Iran has decreased, and the port inventory is at a low level; a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Jingmen has started production, and a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong is planned to be put into production this month; some CTO factories in the northwest have external procurement needs [6]. - **Bearish factors**: Some previously shut - down domestic devices such as Inner Mongolia Donghua have resumed production; there is expected to be a concentrated arrival of ships at the port in the second half of the month; the formaldehyde industry has entered the traditional off - season, and the MTBE operating rate has significantly declined; coal - based methanol has a certain profit margin and is actively selling; some factories in the production area have accumulated inventory due to poor sales [7]. 3. Fundamental Data - **Price data**: In the spot market, the prices of some regions such as Jiangsu and Fujian have decreased, while those in Inner Mongolia have increased. In the futures market, the closing price has decreased. The basis has changed, and the import spread has also changed [8][9][11]. - **Operating rate data**: The national weighted average operating rate of methanol is 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% from last week. The operating rates in Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest regions have all decreased [8]. - **Inventory data**: As of July 31, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports is 650,300 tons, an increase of 63,200 tons from the previous period. The total available and tradable methanol in coastal areas has increased by 40,500 tons to 366,300 tons [5]. - **Production profit data**: The profits of coal - based and coke - oven - gas - based methanol production have changed, while the profit of natural - gas - based methanol production remains unchanged [19]. - **Downstream product data**: The prices of traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid remain unchanged. The production profits and loads of formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, acetic acid, and MTO devices have all changed [28][32][35][39][44]. - **Warehouse receipt and forecast data**: The number of methanol warehouse receipts has decreased by 13.10%, and the number of effective forecasts has increased to 202 [51]. 4. Maintenance Status - **Domestic device maintenance**: Many domestic methanol production enterprises in Northwest, North, East, Southwest, and Northeast regions are in various states of maintenance, including planned and unplanned shutdowns, and some devices are in the process of restarting [54]. - **Foreign device operation**: Some methanol production devices in Iran are in the process of restarting or have uncertain operation statuses. Devices in Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, Qatar, and other countries are generally operating normally, while some devices in the United States and New Zealand have low operating rates [55]. - **Olefin device operation**: Olefin devices in Northwest, East, Central, Shandong, Northeast, and other regions have different operating conditions, including normal operation, shutdown for maintenance, and low - load operation [56].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Overnight crude oil prices opened lower and rebounded, remaining in a low - level volatile state. Trump's remarks increased concerns about US sanctions on Russian oil. The IEA raised the global crude oil surplus forecast for 2025 but also mentioned a "near - term peak - season tightness." This week, the situation regarding sanctions and subsequent trade tariff issues is expected to become clearer, and the market will experience significant fluctuations. Short - term prices are expected to range between 507 - 513, and long - term investors are advised to add to their long positions on dips [3]. - The short - term market is driven by geopolitical conflicts, while in the long - term, it awaits the peak summer demand season [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - **Fundamentals**: US envoy Witkoff is expected to visit Russia on Wednesday. Trump set a Friday deadline for Russia to end the Ukraine war, threatening new sanctions otherwise. Trump also plans to significantly increase tariffs on Indian goods due to India's purchase and resale of Russian oil. Venezuelan oil exports in July decreased by about 10% month - on - month due to partners awaiting US approval for business expansion [3]. - **Basis**: On August 4, the spot price of Oman crude was $71.20 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude was $70.51 per barrel, with a basis of 8.96 yuan/barrel, indicating that the spot price was at par with the futures price [3]. - **Inventory**: US API crude inventory for the week ending July 25 increased by 1.539 million barrels, contrary to the expected decrease of 2.5 million barrels. EIA inventory for the same period increased by 7.698 million barrels, against the expected decrease of 1.288 million barrels. Cushing area inventory increased by 690,000 barrels. As of August 4, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 5.249 million barrels [3]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average was flat, and the price was above the average [3]. - **Main Positions**: As of July 29, the main long positions in WTI and Brent crude oil increased [3]. 3.2 Recent News - Trump plans to raise tariffs on Indian goods due to India's large - scale purchase and resale of Russian oil. In 2023, India became the largest market for Russian crude oil, and last year, Russia supplied about 550 million barrels of crude oil to India, while the US only exported 52 million barrels [5]. - The EU will suspend two counter - measures against US tariffs for six months according to an agreement with the US [5]. - San Francisco Fed President Daly said that the time for interest rate cuts is approaching, and well - known bond fund manager Gundlach believes the Fed will cut rates twice this year [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Focus - **Positive Factors**: The US may impose secondary sanctions on Russian energy exports, and summer demand is starting to rise [6]. - **Negative Factors**: OPEC+ has increased production for three consecutive months, and the US has tense trade relations with other economies [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Futures Quotes**: The settlement prices of Brent, WTI, SC, and Oman crude oil decreased by - 1.31%, - 1.54%, - 2.14%, and - 3.46% respectively [7]. - **Spot Quotes**: The prices of UK Brent, WTI, Oman, Shengli, and Dubai crude oil decreased, with declines ranging from - 0.59% to - 3.77% [9]. - **Inventory Trends**: API and EIA inventories showed different trends from May to July. API inventory increased by 1.539 million barrels in the week ending July 25, and EIA inventory increased by 7.698 million barrels during the same period [10][13]. 3.5 Position Data - **WTI Crude Oil**: As of July 29, the net long position increased by 2,692 [17]. - **Brent Crude Oil**: As of July 29, the net long position increased by 33,959 [18].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - The supply of domestic pigs may decrease in both quantity and meat after the holiday, and the demand is also affected by the macro - environment and high - temperature weather, resulting in a situation of double - reduction in supply and demand. The pig price is expected to maintain a short - term oscillatory pattern, with the LH2509 contract oscillating in the range of 13,800 - 14,200 [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The fundamental situation of pigs shows that supply and demand may both decrease this week, and the pig price will maintain a short - term oscillatory pattern. The basis is neutral, the inventory situation is bearish, the price is below the 20 - day moving average and moving down, the main position is net short with a decrease in shorts, and the price is expected to oscillate in the range of 13,800 - 14,200 [8]. 2. Recent News - China's additional tariffs on pork imports from the US and Canada boost market confidence. After the May Day holiday, the pork market enters the off - season, with both supply and demand decreasing. The spot price is short - term oscillatory and weak, and the futures price also shows an oscillatory and weak pattern. The decline in the spot price may be limited due to the reduction in slaughter [10]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors include a year - on - year decline in domestic pig inventory and limited room for further decline in domestic pig spot prices. Bearish factors are the pessimistic expectations in the domestic macro - environment due to the Sino - US tariff war and the off - season for pig and pork consumption after May Day [11]. 4. Fundamental Data - As of June 30, the pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, a 0.4% month - on - month increase and a 2.2% year - on - year increase. As of the end of June, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.42 million heads, a 0.02% month - on - month increase and a 4.2% year - on - year increase [8]. 5. Position Data - The main position is net short, and the number of short positions is decreasing [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate is shifting towards demand - led. The current situation is characterized by over - supply and weak demand due to capacity mismatch, and the downward trend is difficult to change. There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include manufacturers' production cut plans, a decline in lithium carbonate imports from Chile, and a decrease in lithium spodumene imports. Negative factors are the continuous high supply at the ore/salt lake end with limited decline and insufficient willingness to receive goods at the power battery end [8][9][10][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Fundamentals**: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 17,268 tons, a 7.31% week - on - week decrease but higher than the historical average. The inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials decreased week - on - week. The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate increased by 0.37% day - on - week, with a profit of 1,884 yuan/ton; the cost of purchased lithium mica remained unchanged, with a loss of 6,850 yuan/ton. The cost of the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, and the production enthusiasm is average. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end is 31,745 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [8]. - **Basis**: On August 4th, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 71,350 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 2,310 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: The smelter inventory decreased by 6.18% week - on - week, lower than the historical average; the downstream inventory increased by 7.18% week - on - week, higher than the historical average; other inventories decreased by 2.42% week - on - week, higher than the historical average. The total inventory decreased by 1.00% week - on - week, higher than the historical average [8]. - **Market**: The MA20 of the market is upward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed below the MA20 [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing [8]. - **Expectation**: In July 2025, the production of lithium carbonate was 81,530 physical tons, and the predicted production for next month is 84,200 physical tons, a 3.27% month - on - month increase. The import volume in July was 18,000 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 18,500 physical tons, a 2.78% month - on - month increase. The demand is expected to strengthen next month, and the inventory may be reduced. The CIF price of 6% concentrate has increased day - on - day and is lower than the historical average. The 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 67,340 - 70,500 [8]. 3.2 Market Overview - **Yesterday's Market Overview**: The prices of various lithium - related products such as lithium ore, lithium carbonate, and lithium hydroxide showed different degrees of changes. For example, the price of lithium ore decreased by 0.32% - 0.35%, and the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged [14]. - **Lithium Carbonate Market Overview**: Supply - side data shows changes in indicators such as weekly and monthly operating rates, processing costs, and production of lithium carbonate. Demand - side data includes changes in production, inventory, and consumption of lithium - related products such as lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials [18]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - **Price and Production**: The price of lithium ore has fluctuated over the years. The production of Chinese sample lithium spodumene mines and domestic lithium mica has also changed. The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate has decreased year - on - year, and the self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore has shown different trends [24]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The supply - demand balance of lithium ore shows differences in demand, production, import, and export from July 2024 to July 2025 [26]. 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - **Production and Import**: The weekly and monthly production, operating rates, and import volumes of lithium carbonate from different sources (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt lake, and recycling materials) have changed over time. The production capacity of lithium carbonate has also shown an upward trend [29]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate shows differences in demand, export, import, production, and balance from July 2024 to July 2025 [33]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - **Production and Export**: The production, operating rates, and export volumes of lithium hydroxide from different sources (causticization and smelting) have changed over time. The production capacity of lithium hydroxide has also shown an upward trend [36]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide shows differences in demand, export, import, production, and balance from July 2024 to July 2025 [38]. 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost and Profit - **Cost and Profit of Different Materials**: The cost and profit of lithium compounds such as lithium spodumene, lithium mica, and imported lithium carbonate have changed over time. The cost and profit of recycling materials and the purification profit of industrial - grade lithium carbonate also show different trends [41][44][47]. 3.7 Inventory - **Inventory of Lithium Carbonate and Lithium Hydroxide**: The monthly and weekly inventories of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide from different sources (smelter, downstream, etc.) have changed over time [49]. 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - **Price, Production, and Export**: The prices, production, and export volumes of lithium batteries have changed over time. The production and inventory of battery cells and the winning bids of energy storage projects also show different trends [52][55]. 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - **Price, Cost, and Production**: The prices, costs, and production volumes of ternary precursors have changed over time. The supply - demand balance shows differences in demand, export, import, production, and balance from July 2024 to July 2025 [58][61]. 3.10 Demand - Ternary Material - **Price, Cost, and Production**: The prices, costs, and production volumes of ternary materials have changed over time. The processing fees, export, and import volumes also show different trends [64][66]. 3.11 Demand - Phosphoric Acid Iron/Phosphoric Acid Iron Lithium - **Price, Cost, and Production**: The prices, costs, and production volumes of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid iron lithium have changed over time. The monthly operating rates of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid iron lithium also show different trends [68][71]. 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicles - **Production, Sales, and Penetration Rate**: The production, sales, export volumes, and sales penetration rates of new energy vehicles have changed over time. The retail - wholesale ratios of hybrid and pure - electric vehicles and the inventory warning and inventory indices of dealers also show different trends [76][77][80].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 菜粕早报 2025-08-05 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸菜粕观点和策略 菜粕RM2509：2680至2740区间震荡 1.基本面：菜粕震荡回升，豆粕走势带动和技术性震荡整理，菜粕油厂开机处于低位，菜粕 库存维持低位支撑盘面。菜粕现货需求短期进入旺季，进口油菜籽到港量增多但油厂库 存短期无压力，盘面短期维持区间震荡。中国对加拿大油渣饼进口加征关税短期利多菜 粕，但未对油菜籽进口加征关税，利多程度也或有限。中性 2.基差：现货2600，基差-78，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：菜粕库存1.9万吨，上周1.51万吨，周环比增加25.83%，去年同期3.4万吨，同比减 少44.12% ...