Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The IC2512 has a discount of 90.97 points, and the IM2512 has a discount of 122.72 points, showing a bearish signal [3]. - The market should focus on the Sino - US leaders' meeting today. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates as expected, and Powell hinted that it might be the last rate cut this year. The two markets rose generally yesterday, with the ChiNext leading the way, and market hotspots rotated. The Shanghai Composite Index stood above the 4000 mark, showing a bullish signal [3]. - The margin trading balance was 2476.9 billion yuan, an increase of 12.7 billion yuan, showing a bullish signal [3]. - The IH2512 has a premium of 1.78 points, and the IF2512 has a discount of 15.24 points, showing a neutral signal [3]. - The order of performance is IH > IC > IF > IM, and IH, IF, IC, and IM are above the 20 - day moving average, showing a bullish signal [3]. - The long positions of IF and IC main contracts decreased, while those of IH main contracts increased, showing a bullish signal [3]. - The preliminary consensus was reached in the Sino - US economic and trade consultations. After the Fourth Plenary Session, the technology sector rebounded, and the index rebounded. The Shanghai Composite Index stood above the 4000 mark. Currently, it is recommended to appropriately reduce positions if there is a sharp intraday rise, and the index is expected to maintain a volatile and moderately strong trend. Attention should be paid to the Sino - US leaders' meeting today [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Futures Index Data**: For various futures contracts such as IH, IF, IC, and IM, detailed information including contract prices, price changes, trading volumes, index prices, price - to - earnings ratios, price - to - book ratios, dividends, spreads, premium/discount ratios, annualized premium/discounts, contract values, delivery dates, and remaining terms is provided [4]. - **Base and Spread Charts**: Charts of the base and spread of the Shanghai 50 and CSI 500 futures are presented, showing their historical trends [6][9]. Spot Market - **Important Index Daily Price Changes**: The daily price changes of important indexes such as the Shanghai Composite Index, Shanghai 50, CSI 300, etc. are shown [12]. - **Style Index Daily Price Changes**: The daily price changes of style indexes such as the 300 Cycle, 300 Non - Cycle, etc. are presented [15][19]. Market Structure - **AH Share Premium/Discount**: The historical trend of the Hang Seng AH Premium Index is shown [22]. - **Price - to - Earnings Ratio (PE)**: The historical trends of the PEs of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and ChiNext Index are presented [24]. - **Price - to - Book Ratio (PB)**: The historical trends of the PBs of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and ChiNext Index are presented [26]. Market Fundamentals - **Stock Market Fund Inflow**: The historical trend of A - share net fund inflow and the CSI 300 index are shown [28]. - **Margin Trading Balance**: The historical trends of margin trading balance and the CSI 300 index are presented [30]. - **Northbound Capital Inflow**: The historical trend of the net inflow of northbound capital is shown [32]. - **Stock Unlock**: No specific content is provided other than the title. - **Fund Cost**: The historical trends of SHIBOR overnight, SHIBOR one - week, and SHIBOR two - week rates are presented [38]. Market Sentiment - **Trading Activity**: The historical trends of the turnover rates of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and ChiNext Index are presented [41][44]. - **Public - Offering Hybrid Fund Positions**: No specific content is provided other than the title. Other Indicators - **Futures Index Dividend Yield and 10 - Year Treasury Yield**: The historical trends of the dividend yields of the CSI 300, Shanghai 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000, as well as the 10 - year treasury yield, are presented [50]. - **Renminbi Exchange Rate**: The historical trend of the US dollar - to - Renminbi exchange rate is shown [52]. - **New Account Openings and Shanghai Composite Index Tracking**: No specific content is provided other than the title. - **Newly Established Scale Changes of Different Types of Funds**: The newly established scale changes of stock - type, hybrid, and bond - type funds are presented, but no specific content is provided other than the titles [55][57][59].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the methanol market, indicating that the mainland market has limited room for rise and fall, while the port market is expected to maintain high volatility with both upward and downward movements this week. The MA2601 contract is expected to oscillate between 2,220 - 2,275 yuan/ton [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - For the MA2601 contract, the mainland has support from low upstream factory inventory, strong coal prices, and low methanol prices in production areas, but there is also supply pressure in some areas, negative feedback from olefin plants, and high port inventory. The port market is affected by the sanctions event, with reduced downward momentum but weak fundamentals, and is expected to be highly volatile. The overall market is rated as neutral. The basis shows that the spot price in Jiangsu is at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. As of October 16, 2025, the inventory in East and South China ports decreased slightly, and the available circulating supply in coastal areas also decreased, both being bearish. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is below the moving average, which is bearish. The net position of the main holders is short, with a reduction in short positions, which is bearish [5]. 2. Bullish and Bearish Concerns - **Bullish factors**: Some devices such as Yulin Kaiyue and Xinjiang Xinya have stopped production; the methanol production in Iran has decreased and port inventory is at a low level; a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Jingmen started production on May 16, and a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong is planned to be put into production in late May; northwest CTO factories are purchasing methanol externally [6]. - **Bearish factors**: Some previously shut - down devices such as Inner Mongolia Donghua have resumed production; there is expected to be a concentrated arrival of ships at the port in the second half of the month; formaldehyde has entered the traditional off - season, and the MTBE operating rate has significantly declined; coal - based methanol has a certain profit margin and is actively selling goods; some factories in the production areas have accumulated inventory due to poor sales [7]. 3. Fundamental Data - **Spot and futures prices**: The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu decreased by 1.78% week - on - week, and the futures price decreased by 1.53% week - on - week. The basis decreased by 5 yuan/ton week - on - week [9][11]. - **Production profit**: The profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia decreased by 95 yuan/ton week - on - week, the profit of natural - gas - based methanol in the southwest remained unchanged at - 40 yuan/ton, and the profit of coke - oven - gas - based methanol in the northwest decreased by 325 yuan/ton week - on - week [21]. - **Operating rate**: The national weighted average operating rate of methanol decreased by 3.81% to 74.90%, and the operating rate in the northwest decreased by 3.55% to 81.54% [8]. - **Inventory**: The inventory in East China ports increased by 3.02 million tons to 78.71 million tons, and the inventory in South China ports decreased by 1.93 million tons to 48.27 million tons [8]. - **External market prices**: The CFR price in China decreased by 0.76% week - on - week, and the CFR price in Southeast Asia decreased by 0.61% week - on - week. The price difference remained unchanged [25]. - **Downstream product prices and profits**: The prices of traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid remained unchanged. The profit of formaldehyde production increased by 9 yuan/ton, the profit of dimethyl ether production increased by 28 yuan/ton, and the profit of acetic acid production increased by 22 yuan/ton. The MTO device profit increased by 128 yuan/ton, and the MTO load increased by 0.15% [31][36][39][43][48]. 4. Maintenance Status - **Domestic methanol plants**: Many domestic methanol plants are in a state of shutdown, maintenance, or reduced load, including those in the northwest, east, southwest, and northeast regions. For example, Shaanxi Black Cat, Qinghai Zhonghao, and Shaanxi Huangling are in shutdown or maintenance states [57]. - **Overseas methanol plants**: Some overseas methanol plants in Iran, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and other countries are in different operating states, such as some are in the process of restarting, some are operating stably, and some are under maintenance [58]. - **Olefin plants**: Some domestic olefin plants are in a state of shutdown, maintenance, or normal operation. For example, Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy is under maintenance, and Ningxia Baofeng is operating stably [59].

Report Information - Report Title: Urea Morning Report [2] - Date: October 30, 2025 [2] - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The current daily production and operating rate of urea have started to decline from high levels, and the comprehensive inventory has slightly decreased. The agricultural demand has rebounded due to weather influence, while the industrial demand is significantly weak. The export volume has increased with a large but decreasing price difference between domestic and international markets. Although the domestic urea market remains oversupplied, the market is expected to recover in the short term. The spot price of the delivery product is 1580 (-10), and the overall fundamentals are neutral. The UR2601 contract basis is -64, with a premium/discount ratio of -4.1%, indicating a bearish signal. The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.84 million tons (-201,000), also bearish. The 20-day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, but the closing price is above the 20-day line, showing a neutral signal. The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish. The main contract of urea is expected to rebound, with weak industrial demand, rising agricultural demand, strong international urea prices, and increasing export volume. Despite the obvious domestic oversupply, the price is expected to rise in the short term, and the UR is expected to show a volatile and upward trend today [4]. Summary by Directory Urea Overview Fundamentals - The current daily production and operating rate are declining from high levels, and the comprehensive inventory is slightly decreasing. Agricultural demand has rebounded due to weather, while industrial demand is significantly weak. The export volume has increased with a large but decreasing price difference between domestic and international markets. The domestic urea market remains oversupplied, but the market is expected to recover in the short term. The spot price of the delivery product is 1580 (-10), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. Basis - The UR2601 contract basis is -64, with a premium/discount ratio of -4.1%, indicating a bearish signal [4]. Inventory - The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.84 million tons (-201,000), showing a bearish signal [4]. Disk - The 20-day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, but the closing price is above the 20-day line, showing a neutral signal [4]. Main Position - The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [4]. Expectation - The main contract of urea is expected to rebound, with weak industrial demand, rising agricultural demand, strong international urea prices, and increasing export volume. Despite the obvious domestic oversupply, the price is expected to rise in the short term, and the UR is expected to show a volatile and upward trend today [4]. Factors Affecting Urea Bullish Factors - Strong international prices, increasing exports, and short-term decline in daily production [5]. Bearish Factors - Domestic oversupply [5]. Main Logic - International prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. Spot and Futures Market - The spot price of the delivery product is 1580 (-10), the price of Shandong spot is 1600 (-10), and the price of Henan spot is 1580 (0). The price of the FOB China is 2662. The price of the UR01 contract is 1644 (9), the price of the UR05 contract is 1717 (9), and the price of the UR09 contract is 1747 (11). The basis of the UR01 contract is -64 (-19). The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.84 million tons, the UR manufacturer inventory is 1.63 million tons, and the UR port inventory is 210,000 tons [6]. Supply and Demand Balance Sheet - Urea | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Import Volume | Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | - | 22.455 billion | - | 19.5681 billion | 4.4838 billion | 18.6% | 24.0519 billion | 236.6 million | 24.0519 billion | - | | 2019 | - | 24.455 billion | 8.9% | 22.4 billion | 4.8794 billion | 17.9% | 27.2794 billion | 378.6 million | 27.1374 billion | 12.8% | | 2020 | - | 28.255 billion | 15.5% | 25.8098 billion | 6.1912 billion | 19.3% | 32.001 billion | 378.3 million | 32.0013 billion | 17.9% | | 2021 | - | 31.485 billion | 11.4% | 29.2799 billion | 3.5241 billion | 10.7% | 32.804 billion | 357.2 million | 32.8251 billion | 2.6% | | 2022 | - | 34.135 billion | 8.4% | 29.6546 billion | 3.3537 billion | 10.2% | 33.0083 billion | 446.2 million | 32.9193 billion | 0.3% | | 2023 | - | 38.935 billion | 14.1% | 31.9359 billion | 2.9313 billion | 8.4% | 34.8672 billion | 446.5 million | 34.8669 billion | 5.9% | | 2024 | - | 44.185 billion | 13.5% | 34.25 billion | 3.6 billion | 9.5% | 37.85 billion | 514 million | 37.7825 billion | 8.4% | | 2025E | - | 49.06 billion | 11.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | [9]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The glass market has a weak fundamental situation. Supply is at a low level and has recently seen more disturbances, but the terminal demand recovery is weak. It is expected that the glass will mainly show a weak and volatile trend in the short - term [2][6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily View - Fundamental analysis: Supply is at a low level and starting to recover, with many supply - side disturbances in the Shahe area such as "coal - to - gas" conversion. Downstream deep - processing orders are generally weak, worse than the same period in previous years, and the real - estate terminal demand is weak, which is bearish [2]. - Basis: The spot price of float glass in Hebei Shahe is 1044 yuan/ton, the closing price of FG2601 is 1127 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 83 yuan, with the futures at a premium to the spot, which is bearish [2]. - Inventory: The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 66.613 million weight boxes, an increase of 3.64% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average, which is bearish [2][44]. - Disk: The price is running below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward, which is bearish [2]. - Main position: The main position is net short, and the short position is increasing, which is bearish [2]. - Expectation: The glass fundamentals are weak, and it is expected to mainly show a weak and volatile trend in the short - term [2]. 3.2 Influencing Factors Summary - Bullish factors: Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, there is an expectation of capacity clearance in the float glass industry. Some production lines in the Shahe area are undergoing "coal - to - gas" conversion, increasing supply - side disturbances [4]. - Bearish factors: The real - estate terminal demand is still weak, and the number of orders of glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low for the same period. The capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly digesting the original glass inventory [5]. 3.3 Main Logic The glass supply has declined to a relatively low level in the same period. Recently, there have been more supply - side disturbances, but the terminal demand recovery is weak. It is expected that the glass will mainly show a volatile trend [6]. 3.4 Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract increased from 1113 yuan/ton to 1127 yuan/ton, a rise of 1.26%. The spot price of Shahe Safety large - plate remained unchanged at 1044 yuan/ton. The main basis increased from - 69 yuan/ton to - 83 yuan/ton, a rise of 20.29% [7]. 3.5 Glass Spot Market The market price of 5mm white glass large - plate in the spot benchmark area of Hebei Shahe is 1044 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [12]. 3.6 Fundamental - Cost Side The report mentions glass production profit but does not provide specific data [14][17]. 3.7 Fundamental - Production - The number of national float glass production lines in operation is 226, with an operating rate of 76.35%. The number of operating production lines is at a historical low for the same period [23]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass is 161,300 tons, with the production capacity at the lowest level in the same period in history and starting to recover [25]. 3.8 Fundamental - Demand - In August 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.8602 million tons [29]. - The report also mentions housing sales, new construction, construction, and completion areas, as well as the operating and order situations of downstream processing plants, but no specific data is provided [30][32][39]. 3.9 Fundamental - Inventory The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 66.613 million weight boxes, an increase of 3.64% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [44]. 3.10 Fundamental - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of float glass from 2017 to 2024E, including data such as production, apparent supply, consumption, production growth rate, consumption growth rate, and net import ratio [45].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Despite the Fed's 25 - basis - point rate cut and the end of QT, Powell's hawkish stance on the December rate - cut outlook led to a significant drop in the December rate - cut expectation. Gold prices rebounded and then declined, while silver prices followed gold in giving up gains, but silver was stronger than gold under an optimistic trade scenario. Today, the progress of China - US trade negotiations should be monitored, and both gold and silver prices face pressure, though the pressure on silver is more limited [4][6]. - With Trump's inauguration, the world has entered a period of extreme turmoil and change. Inflation expectations have shifted to economic recession expectations. Gold and silver prices are difficult to fall, and gold is still prone to rising and hard to decline [10][13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: After the Fed's 25 - basis - point rate cut and the end of QT, Powell's hawkish remarks on the December rate - cut outlook caused gold prices to rebound and then fall. US and European stock indices closed mixed. US Treasury yields rose collectively, with the 10 - year Treasury yield up 9.82 basis points to 4.074%. The US dollar index rose 0.43% to 99.16, and the offshore RMB depreciated slightly against the US dollar to 7.0968. COMEX gold futures fell 1.04% to $3941.7 per ounce [4]. - **Silver**: Silver prices followed gold in rebounding and then falling due to Powell's hawkish comments. The December rate - cut expectation dropped significantly. Under an optimistic trade situation, silver was stronger than gold. COMEX silver futures fell 0.1% to $47.275 per ounce [6]. 3.2. Daily Hints - **Gold**: The gold futures price was 910.88, the spot price was 908.1, and the basis was - 2.78, indicating that the spot was at a discount to the futures, which was bearish. Gold futures warehouse receipts increased by 801 kilograms to 87816 kilograms, also bearish. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was below the 20 - day moving average, showing a neutral signal. The main net position was long, but the main long positions decreased, which was bullish [5]. - **Silver**: The silver futures price was 11338, the spot price was 11311, and the basis was - 27, indicating a neutral situation. The Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts decreased by 3599 kilograms to 653828 kilograms, which was bullish. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average, showing a neutral signal. The main net position was long, and the main long positions increased, which was bullish [6]. 3.3. Today's Focus - Time - pending events include a state leader's visit to South Korea for the 32nd APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting and a state visit to South Korea, the closing of the 2025 Financial Street Forum Annual Conference, and the Moore Threads' first MUSA Developer Conference. Other key events include the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision and economic outlook report, a press conference by the Bank of Japan's governor, the preliminary GDP data for the third quarter in France, Germany, and the Eurozone, the German unemployment figures and unemployment rate for October, the preliminary CPI data for Germany in October, the European Central Bank's interest - rate decision, a press conference by the ECB's president, and a speech by a Fed official [15]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: Bullish factors include the global turmoil and the shift from inflation expectations to economic recession expectations after Trump's inauguration, and the ongoing verification process between the expected and actual policies of the US new government, which keeps gold prices high and makes them prone to rising. Bearish factors are not clearly stated in the context. The risk points include Trump's new policies, an improved outlook for the US economy, a significant interest - rate hike by the Bank of Japan, the end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and black - swan events [10][11]. - **Silver**: Bullish factors are similar to those of gold, with the additional support from concerns about non - ferrous metal tariffs. Bearish factors include the end of rate cuts, an improved economic outlook, insufficient fiscal expansion in Europe, a resurgence of risk aversion, and the end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict. The risk points are the same as those for gold [13][14]. 3.5. Position Data - **Gold**: On October 29, 2025, the long positions of the top 20 in Shanghai gold increased by 222 to 170,205, a 0.13% increase; the short positions decreased by 1223 to 64,463, a 1.86% decrease; and the net long position increased by 1445 to 105,742, a 1.39% increase [29]. - **Silver**: On October 29, 2025, the long positions of the top 20 in Shanghai silver increased by 38 to 322,427, a 0.01% increase; the short positions decreased by 4394 to 246,819, a 1.75% decrease; and the net long position increased by 4432 to 75,608, a 6.23% increase [31].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The sentiment in the inter - bank bond market in China is relatively high. Short - and medium - term bond yields have declined significantly due to rumors of large banks buying new bonds issued this year within three years, while long - term bonds have performed weakly. The central bank has been supportive, and the inter - bank market liquidity has loosened. There is still room for market speculation on loose monetary policy, providing short - term support for the bond market [2]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1. Market Review - **Fundamentals**: The inter - bank bond market sentiment is high, short - and medium - term bonds are in high demand with falling yields, long - term bonds are weak, most Treasury bond futures contracts have risen, and the central bank has increased market liquidity. The market is still speculating on loose monetary policy, which supports the short - term bond market [2]. - **Funding**: On October 29, the central bank conducted 557.7 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an interest rate of 1.40%, with 138.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, resulting in a net investment of 419.5 billion yuan [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of TS, TF, and T main contracts is negative, indicating that the spot is at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. The basis of the TL main contract is positive, indicating that the spot is at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [2]. - **Inventory**: The balance of deliverable bonds for the TS, TF, and T main contracts is 1.3594 trillion yuan, 1.4935 trillion yuan, and 2.3599 trillion yuan respectively, which is neutral [3]. - **Market Trend**: The TS, TF, and T main contracts are above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is bullish [3]. - **Main Positions**: The net long positions of the TS and TF main contracts have increased, while the net long positions of the T main contract have decreased [4]. - **Expectations**: The central bank has increased the volume of MLF renewals for eight consecutive months. In September, the manufacturing PMI recovered but remained below the boom - bust line, the CPI increased by 0.1% month - on - month and decreased by 0.3% year - on - year, and the core CPI has been rising year - on - year [5]. - **Contract Quotes**: The T2512.CFE contract price is 108.570, up 0.13%, with a trading volume of 91,358 and an open interest of 246,279, an increase of 7,086. The TF2512.CFE contract price is 106.070, up 0.16%, with a trading volume of 99,318 and an open interest of 149,109, an increase of 10,861. The TS2512.CFE contract price is 102.576, up 0.10%, with a trading volume of 56,118 and an open interest of 71,222, an increase of 2,282. The TL2512.CFE contract price is 115.83, down 0.27%, with a trading volume of 125,436 and an open interest of 146,041, a decrease of 1,892 [8]. 3.2. Spot Bond Analysis The report presents the DR interest rate and the maturity yields of inter - bank Treasury bonds for 2 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year terms, as well as the term spreads between 10Y - 2Y and 5Y - 2Y, but does not provide specific analysis conclusions [9][13]. 3.3. Basis Analysis The report shows the basis trends of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures contracts, but no specific analysis conclusions are provided [16][17][19].

Report Overview - The report is a polyolefin morning report dated October 30, 2025, focusing on LLDPE and PP [2] LLDPE Analysis Fundamental Factors - In September, the official PMI was 49.8, up 0.4 points from the previous month, indicating improved manufacturing sentiment but still in the contraction range. The medium - long - term "supply increase and demand decrease" pattern of crude oil remains unchanged, providing limited support to the polyolefin cost side. From October 25 - 26, China and the US held economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur and reached a preliminary consensus. The US and Europe imposed a new round of sanctions on Russian oil, leading to a rebound in oil prices. In the supply - demand aspect, the peak - season demand for agricultural films continues with stable production, while the rest of the film categories have completed restocking and production has declined. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7020 (-20), with an overall neutral fundamental situation [4] Other Factors - The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is 11, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.2%, which is neutral. The PE comprehensive inventory is 466,000 tons (-114,000), also neutral. The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish trend. The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, with a reduction in short positions, also bearish [4] Expectation - The LLDPE main contract shows a volatile rebound. Considering the preliminary consensus from China - US negotiations, new sanctions on Russian oil and the resulting crude oil rebound, the continued peak - season demand for agricultural films, and the neutral industrial inventory, it is expected that PE will show a volatile and slightly bullish trend today [4] LLDPE Pros and Cons - **Likely to be Bullish**: New sanctions on Russian oil lead to a rebound in oil prices; China - US talks reach a preliminary consensus [5] - **Likely to be Bearish**: Demand is weaker year - on - year; There are many new production launches in the fourth quarter [5] - **Main Logic**: Cost and demand, driven by domestic macro - policies [5] PP Analysis Fundamental Factors - Similar to LLDPE, in September, the official PMI was 49.8, up 0.4 points from the previous month, with the manufacturing sentiment improved but still in the contraction range. The long - term "supply increase and demand decrease" pattern of crude oil persists, offering limited cost - side support. China - US economic and trade consultations reached a preliminary consensus, and new sanctions on Russian oil led to a rebound in oil prices. In terms of supply - demand, the peak season for plastic weaving supports demand, and the demand for pipes has recovered. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6630 (+0), with an overall neutral fundamental situation [6] Other Factors - The basis of the PP 2601 contract is - 55, with a premium - discount ratio of - 0.8%, showing a bearish trend. The PP comprehensive inventory is 595,000 tons (-84,000), which is neutral. The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, indicating a bearish trend. The net position of the PP main contract is short, with a reduction in short positions, also bearish [6] Expectation - The PP main contract shows a volatile rebound. With the preliminary consensus from China - US negotiations, new sanctions on Russian oil and the crude oil rebound, the downstream peak - season demand support, and the neutral industrial inventory, it is expected that PP will show a volatile and slightly bullish trend today [6] PP Pros and Cons - **Likely to be Bullish**: New sanctions on Russian oil lead to a rebound in oil prices; China - US talks reach a preliminary consensus [7] - **Likely to be Bearish**: Demand is weaker year - on - year; There are many new production launches in the fourth quarter [7] - **Main Logic**: Cost and demand, driven by domestic macro - policies [7] Market Data Spot and Futures Prices - **LLDPE**: The spot price of delivery products is 7020 (-20), the 01 - contract price is 7009 (+24), the import price in US dollars is 818 (0), the import - converted price is 7139 (-1), and the import price difference is - 119 (-19) [8] - **PP**: The spot price of delivery products is 6630 (0), the 01 - contract price is 6685 (+28), the import price in US dollars is 795 (0), the import - converted price is 6942 (-1), and the import price difference is - 312 (+1) [8] Inventory - **LLDPE**: The PE comprehensive inventory is 466,000 tons (-114,000), including a warehouse receipt of 12,745 (0), a factory inventory of 466,000 tons (-99,000), and a social inventory of 527,000 tons (-18,000) [8] - **PP**: The PP comprehensive inventory is 595,000 tons (-84,000), including a warehouse receipt of 14,569 (-4), a factory inventory of 595,000 tons (-43,000), and a social inventory of 320,000 tons (-10,000) [8] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets Polyethylene - From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, net import volume, apparent consumption, etc. of polyethylene have shown certain trends. For example, the production capacity increased from 1869.5 in 2018 to 3584.5 in 2024, with a growth rate of 12.4% in 2024 compared to the previous year. The import dependence decreased from 46.3% in 2018 to 32.9% in 2024 [13] Polypropylene - From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, net import volume, apparent consumption, etc. of polypropylene also changed. The production capacity increased from 2245.5 in 2018 to 4418.5 in 2024, with a growth rate of 13.5% in 2024 compared to the previous year. The import dependence decreased from 18.6% in 2018 to 9.5% in 2024 [15]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [2]. - The supply - demand mismatch pattern in the soda ash industry has not been effectively improved [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Viewpoints - Fundamentals: Alkali plant maintenance is less than expected, and the second - phase of Yuangxing is expected to be put into production before the end of the year. Overall supply is at a high level. Downstream float glass supply has many disturbances, and the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass continues to decline. The inventory of soda ash plants is at a historical high. It is bearish [2]. - Basis: The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,185 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2601 is 1,259 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 74 yuan. The futures price is higher than the spot price. It is bearish [2]. - Inventory: The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.7021 million tons, an increase of 0.09% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average. It is bearish [2]. - Disk: The price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. It is bearish [2]. - Main positions: The main positions are net short, and the short positions are decreasing. It is bearish [2]. Influencing Factors - Bullish factors: The daily melting volume of float glass has stabilized [3]. - Bearish factors: The main logic is that soda ash supply is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the supply - demand mismatch pattern in the industry has not been effectively improved [4]. Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract increased from 1,239 yuan/ton to 1,259 yuan/ton, a rise of 1.61%. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe remained unchanged at 1,185 yuan/ton. The main basis increased from - 54 yuan to - 74 yuan, a rise of 37.04% [6]. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,185 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [12]. Production Profit - The profit of heavy soda ash by the North China ammonia - soda process is - 92.40 yuan/ton, and that by the East China co - production process is - 199 yuan/ton, at a historical low [15]. Industry Capacity Changes - In 2023, the new capacity of soda ash was 6.4 million tons. In 2024, it was 1.8 million tons. In 2025, the planned new capacity is 7.5 million tons, with an actual production of 1 million tons [21]. Demand Analysis - The weekly production - sales rate of soda ash is 99.78% [24]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass is 161,300 tons, and the operating rate is 76.35% and has stabilized [27]. Inventory Analysis - The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.7021 million tons, an increase of 0.09% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [34]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance of soda ash has fluctuated in recent years. For example, in 2017, the supply - demand difference was 600,000 tons, while in 2018, it was - 490,000 tons [35].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply pressure decreased this week, with a 2.05% MoM decrease in PVC production in September 2025 and a 0.00 percentage point MoM decrease in the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate. Next week, maintenance is expected to decrease, and production scheduling is expected to increase slightly [6]. - Downstream overall开工率 increased by 0.27 percentage points to 49.86%, higher than the historical average. However, the current demand may continue to be sluggish, with shipping costs expected to rise and domestic PVC export prices being competitive [6]. - Both the calcium carbide method and ethylene method are in a loss - making state, with the loss increasing by 1.30% MoM. The double - ton spread profit increased by 0.80% MoM, but all are lower than the historical average, and production scheduling may be under pressure [6][7]. - The overall supply pressure is strong, and domestic demand recovery is not smooth. The PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4747 - 4803. There are both positive and negative factors in the market, with positive factors including supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits, while negative factors include the rebound of overall supply pressure, high inventory, slow consumption, and weak domestic and foreign demand [8][11][12]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Views - **Supply Side**: In September 2025, PVC production was 2.030766 million tons, a 2.05% MoM decrease. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 76.57%, with a 0.00 percentage point MoM decrease. Calcium carbide method enterprise production was 316,280 tons, a 0.45% MoM decrease, and ethylene method enterprise production was 150,360 tons, a 0.47% MoM increase. Next week, maintenance is expected to decrease, and production scheduling is expected to increase slightly [6]. - **Demand Side**: The downstream overall开工率 was 49.86%, a 0.27 percentage point MoM increase, higher than the historical average. However, the current demand may continue to be sluggish, with shipping costs expected to rise and domestic PVC export prices being competitive [6]. - **Cost Side**: The calcium carbide method profit was - 722.72 yuan/ton, with a 1.30% MoM increase in loss, lower than the historical average. The ethylene method profit was - 560.46 yuan/ton, also with a 1.30% MoM increase in loss, lower than the historical average. The double - ton spread was 2,323.25 yuan/ton, with a 0.80% MoM increase in profit, lower than the historical average [6][7]. - **Overall Judgment**: The fundamentals are neutral, the basis is bearish, the inventory is neutral, the disk is neutral, and the main position is bearish [6][9]. - **Positive and Negative Factors**: Positive factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. Negative factors include the rebound of overall supply pressure, high inventory, slow consumption, and weak domestic and foreign demand [11]. 2. PVC Market Overview - Provides yesterday's market overview data, including various price indicators, month - to - month spreads, inventory data, downstream开工率, and profit data [14][15]. 3. PVC Futures Market - **Basis Trend**: Displays the historical basis trend of PVC, along with the PVC East China market price and the main contract closing price [17][18]. - **Volume and Price Analysis**: Shows the volume, price, and position changes of the PVC futures main contract, including the opening price, highest price, lowest price, closing price, and the position changes of the top 5/20 seats [20][21]. - **Spread Analysis**: Presents the historical spread trends of the main contracts, such as the 1 - 9 spread and 5 - 9 spread [23][24]. 4. PVC Fundamentals - **Calcium Carbide Method - Related**: Analyzes the price, cost, profit,开工率, and inventory of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, and caustic soda in the calcium carbide method [26][27][29][30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37]. - **PVC Supply Trend**: Analyzes the capacity utilization rate, profit, production volume, and maintenance volume of the calcium carbide method and ethylene method in PVC production [38][39][40][42]. - **Demand Trend**: Analyzes the sales volume, pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, and downstream开工率 of PVC, as well as the profit, cost, production volume, and apparent consumption of paste resin. Also, it analyzes relevant data in the real estate and infrastructure fields [44][45][46][48][50][52][54]. - **Inventory**: Analyzes the inventory data of the exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide method factory warehouses, ethylene method factory warehouses, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days [55][56]. - **Ethylene Method**: Analyzes the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and relevant price spreads in the ethylene method [57][58]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Presents the monthly supply - demand balance data of PVC, including production, import, export, demand, social inventory, and factory inventory [60][61].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side shows that the planned domestic asphalt production in August 2025 was 2.413 million tons, a 5.1% decrease from the previous month and a 17.1% increase year-on-year. The sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt this week was 33.0777%, a decrease of 4.31 percentage points from the previous week. The overall demand is below the historical average level, and the cost support is expected to weaken in the short term. It is predicted that the asphalt 2601 will fluctuate in the range of 3252 - 3296 [8]. - The main logic is that the supply pressure remains high, and the demand recovery is weak. There are both positive and negative factors. The positive factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support, while the negative factors include insufficient demand for high - priced goods and the strengthening expectation of economic recession in Europe and the United States [10][11][12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Fundamentals**: In terms of supply, refineries reduced production this week to ease supply pressure, but supply pressure may increase next week. In terms of demand, the current demand is below the historical average. In terms of cost, the daily processing profit of asphalt increased by 30.70% compared with the previous period, the loss of asphalt processing increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased. The short - term support is expected to weaken [8]. - **Basis**: On October 29, the spot price in Shandong was 3280 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was 6 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures, showing a neutral situation [8]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory and factory inventory continued to be destocked, while port inventory continued to accumulate, showing a neutral situation [8]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below the MA20, showing a bearish situation [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net long, and the long position increased, showing a bullish situation [8]. - **Expectation**: It is expected that the disk will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and the asphalt 2601 will fluctuate in the range of 3252 - 3296 [8]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market - **Basis Trend**: The report presents the basis trends of asphalt in Shandong and East China, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [17]. - **Spread Analysis** - **Main Contract Spread**: The report shows the spread trends of asphalt 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [20]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: The report shows the price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas crude oil, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [23]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: The report shows the crack spreads of asphalt with SC, WTI, and Brent crude oils, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [26]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: The report shows the price ratio trend of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [30]. 3.3 Asphalt Spot Market - **Market Price Trends in Different Regions**: The report shows the price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [33]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis** - **Asphalt Profit**: The report shows the profit trend of asphalt, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [36]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: The report shows the trend of the profit spread between coking and asphalt, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [39]. - **Supply Side** - **Shipment Volume**: The report shows the weekly shipment volume of asphalt, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [42]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: The report shows the domestic diluted asphalt port inventory, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [44]. - **Production Volume**: The report shows the weekly and monthly production volumes of asphalt, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [47]. - **Marey Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: The report shows the price of Marey crude oil and the monthly production of Venezuelan crude oil, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [51]. - **Refinery Asphalt Production**: The report shows the asphalt production of refineries, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [54]. - **开工率**: The report shows the weekly utilization rate of asphalt production capacity, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [57]. - **Maintenance Loss Estimation**: The report shows the estimated maintenance loss volume, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [59]. - **Inventory** - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: The report shows the situation of exchange warehouse receipts, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [62]. - **Social Inventory and Factory Inventory**: The report shows the trends of social inventory and factory inventory, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [66]. - **Factory Inventory - to - Stock Ratio**: The report shows the factory inventory - to - stock ratio, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [69]. - **Import and Export Situation** - **Export and Import Trends**: The report shows the export and import trends of asphalt, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [72]. - **Korean Asphalt Import Spread Trend**: The report shows the import spread trend of Korean asphalt, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [77]. - **Demand Side** - **Petroleum Coke Production**: The report shows the production of petroleum coke, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [78]. - **Apparent Consumption**: The report shows the apparent consumption of asphalt, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [81]. - **Downstream Demand** - **Highway Construction and Related Indicators**: The report shows the trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [84]. - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: The report shows the sales trends of asphalt concrete pavers, domestic excavators, and road rollers, as well as the monthly working hours of excavators, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [88]. - **Asphalt Utilization Rate** - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Utilization Rate**: The report shows the utilization rate of heavy - traffic asphalt, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [93]. - **Asphalt Utilization Rate by Purpose**: The report shows the utilization rates of construction asphalt and modified asphalt, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [96]. - **Downstream Utilization Situation**: The report shows the utilization rates of shoe - material SBS modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane modified asphalt, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [98]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The report presents the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to October 2025, including downstream demand, port inventory, factory inventory, social inventory, export volume, import volume, and production volume [103].