交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪锌期货早报-2026年2月9日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85225791 1、基本面： 外媒1月21日消息：世界金属统计局（WBMS）公布最新数据显 示，2025年11月，全球锌板产量为119.7万吨,消费量为116.8万吨,供应过剩 2.9万吨.1-11月,全球锌板产量为1275.61万吨,消费量为1310.65万吨,供应 短缺35.04万吨.11月份,全球锌矿产量为106.9万吨.1-11月,全球锌矿产量为 1214.19万吨；偏多。 2、基差：现货24600，基差+150；偏多。 3、库存：2月6日LME锌库存较上日减少200吨至107600吨，2月4日上期所锌 库存仓单较上日增加598吨至31088吨；中性。 4、盘面：昨日沪锌震荡走势，收20日均线之下,20日均线向上；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净多头，多减；偏多。 6、预期：LME库存仓单小幅减少；上期所仓单小幅增加；沪锌ZN2603：震荡 走强。 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The copper market has a complex supply - demand and price situation. The supply side is disturbed with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap copper policy being loosened. The manufacturing PMI in January was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity. The copper price has reached a new high and is currently in high - level volatility, and attention should be paid to position control [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Supply - side disturbances, smelting enterprise production cuts, relaxed scrap copper policy, and a decline in the manufacturing PMI in January suggest a bullish outlook [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 100350, with a basis of - 250, indicating a discount to futures, which is neutral [2]. - **Inventory**: On February 6th, copper inventory increased by 2700 tons to 183275 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory increased by 15907 tons to 248911 tons last week, which is neutral [2]. - **Market Chart**: The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is moving down, suggesting a bearish outlook [2]. - **Main Position**: The main net position is long, and the long position is increasing, which is bullish [2]. - **Expectation**: Geopolitical disturbances remain, and the incident at Indonesia's Grasberg Block Cave mine is fermenting. The copper price has reached a new high and is currently in high - level volatility [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **Likely Positive Factors**: Global policy easing and tight ore supply, along with geopolitical disturbances in Russia - Ukraine and Israel - Iran, potential Fed rate cuts, and slow mine - end production increase and production cuts at Freeport's Indonesian mine [3][4]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Unexpectedly high US tariffs and an unoptimistic global economy with high copper prices suppressing downstream consumption [4]. Inventory - **Exchange Inventory**: The SHFE copper inventory increased by 15907 tons to 248911 tons last week [2]. - **Bonded - Area Inventory**: Bonded - area inventory has rebounded from a low level [13]. Processing Fee - Processing fees have declined [15]. Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it will be in a tight - balance state. The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows different supply - demand situations in different years from 2018 to 2024 [19][21].

商品期权日报(2026 年 02 月 06 日) 表 1：期权行情 | | 看涨期权 | | 看跌期权 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 日涨跌幅 | 品种 | 日涨跌幅 | | 玉米淀粉 | 25.53% | 锡 | 129.84% | | 白糖 | 6.59% | 烧碱 | 95.00% | | 玉米 | 5.13% | 铜 | 89.60% | | 豆粕 | 4.64% | 铝 | 88.68% | | 锰硅 | 2.07% | 合成橡胶 | 73.26% | | 花生 | 0.77% | 锌 | 66.67% | | 豆一 | 0.00% | 碳酸锂 | 51.78% | | 豆二 | -0.49% | 鸡蛋 | 50.41% | | 苹果 | -2.58% | 聚丙烯 | 43.27% | | 燃料油 | -4.90% | 白银 | 41.84% | | | 看涨期权 | 看跌期权 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 日涨跌幅 | 品种 | 日涨跌幅 | | 玉米淀粉 | 25.53% | 锡 | 129.84% | | 白糖 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2026年2月6日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2025年12月PVC产量为213.7356万吨，环比增加2.79%；本周样本企 业产能利用率为78.93%，环比增加0.00个百分点；电石法企业产量34.716万吨，环比增加 0.73%,乙烯法企业产量13.611万吨，环比减少0.96%；本周供给压力有所增加；下周预计检修有 所减少，预计排产少量增加。 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为44.75%，环比减少0.10个百分点，高于历史平均水平；下游型材 开工率为31.52%，环比持平，高于历史平均水平；下游管材开工率为37%，环比持平，高于历史 平均水平；下游薄膜开工率为65.71%，环 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fuel oil market is affected by multiple factors, with a neutral supply - demand situation. The low - sulfur market has sufficient supply, and the high - sulfur market also maintains an abundant supply. The demand for marine fuel oil is expected to increase before the Spring Festival. The market follows the trend of crude oil, with the low - sulfur fuel oil market structure being weak and the high - sulfur fuel oil market performing slightly stronger. FU2603 is expected to operate in the 2760 - 2810 range, and LU2603 in the 3250 - 3300 range [3] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Hints - The fundamentals of fuel oil show a neutral supply - demand situation. The 2 - month inflow of arbitrage cargoes from the West is expected to be high, keeping the low - sulfur market well - supplied. The high - sulfur fuel oil market also maintains abundant supply due to stable arrivals at the Singapore port. The demand for marine fuel oil is expected to increase before the Spring Festival. The basis shows that the spot is at a premium to the futures. The inventory in Singapore increased by 950,000 barrels to 25.529 million barrels in the week of February 4. The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward. The main positions in both high - sulfur and low - sulfur are short positions, with short positions decreasing. The overnight crude oil fluctuated, and the fuel oil followed. The low - sulfur fuel oil market structure is weak, and the high - sulfur fuel oil market is slightly stronger [3] - The prices of the FU and LU main contracts increased by 1.40% and 1.14% respectively, and the basis increased by 19.72% and 16%. The spot prices of various types of fuel oil also increased, with the Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil rising by 2.12% [5][6] 3.2 Long and Short Concerns - Bullish factors: Iranian situation turmoil and the issuance of Chinese import quotas [4] - Bearish factors: The optimism on the demand side remains to be verified, and the upstream crude oil is under pressure [4] - Market driver: The supply side is affected by geopolitical risks, and the demand is neutral [4] 3.3 Fundamental Data - The supply of fuel oil is abundant, with high inflows of arbitrage cargoes from the West for low - sulfur and stable arrivals at Singapore port for high - sulfur. The demand for marine fuel oil is expected to increase before the Spring Festival [3] 3.4 Spread Data - The report provides the spread between high - and low - sulfur futures, but no specific numerical analysis is given [10] 3.5 Inventory Data - The Singapore fuel oil inventory on February 4, 2026, was 25.529 million barrels, an increase of 950,000 barrels compared to the previous period. Historical inventory data from November 26, 2025, to February 4, 2026, are also provided [3][8]

重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2026-02-06 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 豆粕M2605：2720至2780区间震荡 1.基本面：美豆震荡回升，美国称中国将采购更多大豆和技术性买盘支撑，美豆短期维持区 间震荡等待中美贸易协议执行后续和南美大豆产区生长和收割天气进一步指引。国内豆 粕探底回升，美豆走势带动和年底需求进入旺季现货价格升水支撑盘面底部，消息面多 空交织短期或维持震荡格局。中性 2.基差：现货3020（华东），基差289，升水期货。偏多 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存94.72万吨，上周104.4万吨，环比减少9.27%，去年同期55.67万吨， 同比增加70.15%。偏空 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report Industrial Silicon - Supply side: Last week, the industrial silicon supply was 82,000 tons, a 1.20% decrease from the previous week. The supply-side production schedule has decreased and remains at a low level [6]. - Demand side: Last week, the industrial silicon demand was 75,000 tons, a 7.14% increase from the previous week, indicating a rise in demand. Polysilicon inventory is at a neutral level, silicon wafers and battery cells are in a loss state, while components are profitable. Organic silicon inventory is at a low level, with a production profit of 2,145 yuan/ton and a comprehensive开工 rate of 64.02%, which is flat compared to the previous week and lower than the historical average. Aluminum alloy ingot inventory is at a high level [6]. - Cost side: The production cost of sample oxygenated 553 silicon in Xinjiang is 9,859.7 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous week. The cost support has increased during the dry season [6]. - Expectation: The industrial silicon 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,490 - 8,720 yuan/ton [8]. Polysilicon - Supply side: Last week, the polysilicon production was 20,200 tons, a 1.46% decrease from the previous week. The production schedule for February is forecasted to be 79,700 tons, a 20.93% decrease from the previous month [10]. - Demand side: Last week, the silicon wafer production was 11.75 GW, an 8.19% increase from the previous week, and the inventory was 272,900 tons, a 1.90% increase. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. The production schedule for February is 45.31 GW, a 1.34% decrease from the previous month. In January, the battery cell production was 41.44 GW, an 11.37% decrease from the previous month. Last week, the inventory of battery cell export factories was 9.17 GW, a 2.80% increase. Currently, battery cell production is in a loss state. The production schedule for February is 36.7 GW, an 11.43% decrease. In January, the component production was 35.2 GW, a 9.04% decrease from the previous month. The expected component production for February is 29.8 GW, a 15.34% decrease. The domestic monthly inventory is 24.76 GW, a 51.73% decrease, and the European monthly inventory is 34.2 GW, a 9.26% increase. Currently, component production is profitable [10]. - Cost side: The average cost of polysilicon N-type material in the industry is 40,830 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 11,920 yuan/ton [10]. - Expectation: The polysilicon 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 48,250 - 50,850 yuan/ton [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Views - **Industrial Silicon** - Supply: Decreased, with a weekly supply of 82,000 tons and a 1.20% decrease [6]. - Demand: Increased, with a weekly demand of 75,000 tons and a 7.14% increase [6]. - Cost: Increased, with the cost support rising during the dry season [6]. - Expectation: Fluctuate in the range of 8,490 - 8,720 yuan/ton [8]. - **Polysilicon** - Supply: Decreased, with a weekly production of 20,200 tons and a 1.46% decrease, and a forecasted February production of 79,700 tons, a 20.93% decrease from the previous month [10]. - Demand: Mixed, with short - term silicon wafer production decreasing and medium - term recovery expected, battery cell production continuously decreasing, and component production continuously decreasing. Overall demand shows some recovery but may be weak in the future [10]. - Cost: Increased, with cost support strengthening [10]. - Expectation: Fluctuate in the range of 48,250 - 50,850 yuan/ton [10]. 2. Fundamental/Position Data - **Industrial Silicon** - **Supply**: Last week's supply was 82,000 tons, a 1.20% decrease [6]. - **Demand**: Last week's demand was 75,000 tons, a 7.14% increase [6]. - **Cost**: The production cost of sample oxygenated 553 silicon in Xinjiang is 9,859.7 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous week [6]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory is 554,000 tons, a 0.35% decrease; sample enterprise inventory is 206,600 tons, a 1.14% decrease; major port inventory is 138,000 tons, a 0.73% increase [8]. - **Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position has decreased [8]. - **Polysilicon** - **Supply**: Last week's production was 20,200 tons, a 1.46% decrease, and the forecasted February production is 79,700 tons, a 20.93% decrease from the previous month [10]. - **Demand**: Silicon wafer production last week was 11.75 GW, an 8.19% increase, and the inventory was 272,900 tons, a 1.90% increase. Battery cell production and component production are decreasing [10]. - **Cost**: The average cost of polysilicon N - type material in the industry is 40,830 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 11,920 yuan/ton [10]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory is 341,000 tons, a 2.40% increase, at a neutral level [10]. - **Position**: The main position is net long, and the long position has increased [10].

CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2026-02-06甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 3 基本面数据 4 检修状况 甲醇2605： 1、基本面：本周国内甲醇市场低位震荡概率较大。内地方面，春节前甲醇工厂仍以积极出货维持库存为主，供应相对 宽松。但随着春节临近，部分传统下游陆续停工放假。基本面仍显弱势，对行情有一定压制作用。与此同时，部分下游 仍有备货需求，且当前产销地区甲醇价格均处在底部空间，尤其是运费坚挺支撑销区到货价格。多空交织下预计后期内 地甲醇窄幅震荡。港口方面，压力边界上移至2400，预计在宏观未有炒作点的情况下，本周港口现货市场在压力位下方 区间震荡。关注地缘风险带来的市场不确定，巨大的政治冲突或快速改变定价逻辑，让市场波动不断加剧；中性 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal RM2605 is expected to oscillate in the range of 2220 - 2280. It bottomed out and rebounded, influenced by soybean meal trends and technical consolidation. With the short - term negative impact of China's potential cancellation of Canadian agricultural product export restrictions out of the way, the market has returned to an oscillatory state. Although the spot demand for rapeseed meal is in the off - season, low inventory supports the market. Considering the good demand expectation after the Spring Festival, the market is expected to remain range - bound in the medium term despite short - term weakening due to the improvement in China - Canada trade relations [9]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Tips - Not provided in the given content 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the long - holiday off - season. The spot market supply is expected to be tight in the short term, and the decreasing demand suppresses the market expectation. Canada is in the rapeseed harvesting and exporting stage, but China - Canada trade issues have reduced short - term exports and domestic supply expectations [11]. - With the Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China, China - Canada trade relations have improved in the short term. The mutual tariffs are expected to be gradually cancelled, and China's imports of Canadian rapeseed are about to resume. Future actions depend on the further development of China - Canada trade relations [11]. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada where the output is higher than expected [11]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues. The reduction in Ukraine's rapeseed output and the increase in Russia's rapeseed output offset each other. There is still a possibility of an escalation in global geopolitical conflicts, which provides support for commodities [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns - **Bullish Factors**: Good demand expectation for Chinese rapeseed meal after the Spring Festival and no pressure on oil mills' rapeseed meal inventory [12]. - **Bearish Factors**: Short - term off - season for domestic rapeseed meal demand and the upcoming resumption of China's imports of Canadian rapeseed due to improved China - Canada trade relations [12]. - **Current Main Logic**: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of Canadian rapeseed imports arriving at ports [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Price and Spread**: From January 28 to February 5, the average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated. The spot price of rapeseed meal was relatively strong, and the spot premium remained at a relatively high level. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal narrowed, and the price difference of the 2605 contract between soybean meal and rapeseed meal declined from a high level [13][22][24]. - **Inventory**: The total domestic rapeseed meal inventory was 43.78 tons, down 2.6% week - on - week from 44.95 tons last week and 12.79% year - on - year compared to 50.2 tons in the same period last year. Oil mills' rapeseed inventory remained low, and rapeseed meal inventory was also at a low level [9]. - **Supply and Demand Balance**: The supply and demand balance tables of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal from 2016 to 2025 are provided, showing changes in harvest area, output, consumption, inventory, etc. [19][21]. 5. Position Data - Not provided in the given content 6. Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - **View**: Rapeseed meal bottomed out and rebounded due to Canada's Prime Minister's visit to China and the improvement in China - Canada trade relations. Considering the current off - season of domestic rapeseed meal supply and demand, the market will remain oscillatory after the overall negative factors are digested. Attention should be paid to the future development of China - Canada trade relations [9]. - **Strategy**: The rapeseed meal RM2605 is expected to oscillate in the range of 2220 - 2280 [9].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 碳酸锂期货早报 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 2026年2月6日 目 录 1 每日观点 每日观点 利多：锂云母厂家停减产计划，从智利进口碳酸锂量环比下行。 利空：矿石/盐湖端供给持续高位，下降幅度有限。 主要逻辑：供需紧平衡下，消息面引发的情绪震荡。 主要风险点：停减产/检修计划冲击，产业出清启动时间点。 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，上周碳酸锂产量为21569吨，环比减少2.91%,高于历史同期平均水平。 需求端来看，上周磷酸铁锂样本企业库存为96819吨，环比增加0.24%,上周三元材料样本企业 库存为18691吨，环比减少0.93%。 成本端来看，外购锂辉石精矿成本为142310元/吨，日环比持平，生产所得为3100元/吨，有 所盈利；外购锂云母成本为1 ...