交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-8-6 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂检修较少，供给仍处高位；下游浮法玻璃日熔量平稳，光伏日熔量大幅下滑， 终端需求走弱，纯碱厂库处于历史高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1250元/吨，SA2509收盘价为1271元/吨，基差为-21元，期货 升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存179.58万吨，较前一周减少3.69%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向上；中性 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面供强需弱，政策利好情绪消退，短期预计震荡偏弱运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、夏季检修高峰期来临，产量将有所下滑。 利空： 主要逻辑和风险点 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 玻璃早报 2025-8-6 每日观点 玻璃： 1、基本面：玻璃生产利润修复，行业冷修速度放缓，开工率、产量下降至历史同期低位；深加工 订单不及往年同期，终端需求偏弱；偏空 2、基差：浮法玻璃河北沙河大板现货1112元/吨，FG2509收盘价为1077元/吨，基差为35元，期货 贴水现货；偏多 3、库存：全国浮法玻璃企业库存5949.90万重量箱，较前一周减少3.87%，库存在5年均值上方运 行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向上；中性 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：政策利好消退，玻璃基本面疲弱，短期预计震荡偏弱运行为主。 3、"反内卷"市场情绪消退。 主要逻辑和风险点 1、主要逻辑：玻璃供给下滑至同期较低水平 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot is relatively strong, domestic inventories are starting to rise, and the tire operating rate is at a high level, with a neutral outlook [6]. - The market sentiment dominates, and short - term trading is recommended [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Hints - The fundamentals of natural rubber show that supply is increasing, spot is strong, domestic inventories are rising, and tire operating rate is high, with a neutral assessment [6]. - The basis is - 1010 with a spot price of 14450, showing a bearish sign [6]. - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased week - on - week and year - on - year, while the inventory in Qingdao increased week - on - week and year - on - year, with a neutral situation [6]. - The price is running below the 20 - day line while the 20 - day line is upward, with a neutral assessment [6]. - The main position is net short with a reduction in short positions, showing a bearish sign [6]. 3.2 Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is increasing, and downstream consumption is high [6][8]. - **Price**: The spot price of 2023 full - latex (non - deliverable) rose on August 5th, and the basis weakened on August 5th [10][37]. - **Inventory**: The exchange inventory has been continuously decreasing recently, while the Qingdao area inventory has increased slightly [16][19]. - **Import**: The import volume has a seasonal decline [22]. 3.3 Multi - Empty Factors and Main Risk Points - **Likely to Rise Factors**: High downstream consumption, resistant spot prices, and domestic anti - involution [8]. - **Likely to Fall Factors**: Increasing supply and non - seasonal destocking in Qingdao [8]. 3.4 Basis - The spot price is 14450, and the basis is - 1010, showing a bearish situation [6].

铝: 1、基本面：碳中和控制产能扩张，下游需求不强劲，房地产延续疲软，宏观短期情绪多变；中性。 2、基差：现货20510，基差-50，贴水期货，中性。 3、库存：上期所铝库存较上周增1737吨至117527吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线下，20均线向下运行；偏空。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，多增；偏多。 6、预期：碳中和催发铝行业变革，长期利多铝价，多空交织，铝价震荡运行. 沪铝早报- 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 ：祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 近期利多利空分析 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 降息和需求疲软博弈 1、碳中和控制产能扩张。 2、俄乌地缘政治扰动，影响俄铝供应。 3、降息 1、全球经济并不乐观，高铝价会压制下游消费。 2、铝材出口退税取消 每日汇总 | 现货 | 地方 地方 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For PTA, the recent macro - atmosphere has cooled, commodities have corrected, and there is insufficient cost - side support. The downstream terminal is in the off - season with weak demand. Although there have been many changes in PTA devices recently, the spot market has sufficient liquidity, and there is a lack of upward drive. However, as the basis weakens, the buying interest of traders has slightly increased, and the downward space is limited. Also, pay attention to whether there are new variables in PTA devices under continuous low processing fees [5]. - For MEG, this week's ethylene glycol foreign vessel arrivals are relatively concentrated, and the visible inventory is expected to increase stage - by - stage. In August, the ethylene glycol fundamentals are mainly in a loose balance. The restart of Zhejiang Petrochemical Phase II 1 is moderately postponed to around the middle of the month, and the domestic output increase is delayed. It is expected that ethylene glycol will have a wide - range adjustment in the short term. Currently, the port inventory is low, so pay attention to the cost - side and device changes [7]. - The influencing factors include that the supply - demand expectation of PTA will improve in August due to some device overhauls, but the terminal demand is weakening as it is the end of the export rush and the domestic demand off - season [9]. - The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - aspect. Pay attention to the cost - side, and for the upward rebound of the futures price, pay attention to the upper resistance level [10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - No relevant content provided. 3.2. Daily Tips - **PTA**: Yesterday, the PTA futures fluctuated in a narrow range at a low level. The spot trading atmosphere slightly improved, the basis was weak, and the trading was mainly between traders. Some polyester factories sold goods. The mainstream suppliers also sold goods. The August goods were traded at a discount of 12 - 25 to the 09 contract, with the price negotiation range at 4650 - 4660 yuan/ton. The goods in the middle and upper part of September were traded at par with the 09 contract, and those in the lower part of September were traded at a premium of 5 to the 09 contract. Today's mainstream spot basis is 09 - 19 [5]. - **MEG**: On Tuesday, the price center of ethylene glycol fluctuated upward, and the market negotiation was average. In the morning, the domestic ethylene glycol market weakened slightly, and the trading was general. The spot was traded at a premium of 78 - 80 yuan/ton to the 09 contract. In the afternoon, driven by the temporary shutdown of the Maoming Petrochemical device, the ethylene glycol futures price rose strongly. By the end of the session, the spot negotiation strengthened to a premium of 79 - 81 yuan/ton to the 09 contract. In terms of US dollars, the negotiation of recent shipments weakened slightly to around 520 US dollars/ton in the morning, and then the negotiation center rose to 523 - 525 US dollars/ton in the afternoon driven by the unexpected shutdown news of the Maoming Petrochemical device. There were transactions of recent shipments at around 523 US dollars/ton during the day. In addition, there were transactions of Taiwan tender goods at around 525 US dollars/ton with a cargo volume of 2000 tons [8]. 3.3. Today's Focus - **PTA**: The spot price is 4660 yuan/ton, the basis of the 09 contract is - 22, and the futures price is at a discount to the spot, showing a neutral situation. The PTA factory inventory is 3.82 days, a decrease of 0.17 days compared with the previous period, which is a positive factor. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is a negative factor. The net position of the main contract is short, and the short position has increased, which is a negative factor [5][6]. - **MEG**: The spot price is 4460 yuan/ton, the basis of the 09 contract is 61, and the futures price is at a discount to the spot, showing a neutral situation. The total inventory in the East China region is 42.74 tons, a decrease of 4.14 tons compared with the previous period, which is a positive factor. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is a positive factor. The net position of the main contract is short, and the short position has decreased, which is a negative factor [7][8]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Table**: It shows the PTA production capacity, load, output, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and inventory from January 2024 to December 2025, reflecting the supply - demand relationship and inventory changes of PTA over time [11]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Table**: It presents the ethylene glycol's total operating rate, production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and port inventory from January 2024 to December 2025, reflecting the supply - demand relationship and inventory changes of ethylene glycol over time [12]. 3.5. Price - There are multiple price - related charts, including the spot price of PET bottle chips, production profit, capacity utilization rate, inventory, PTA and MEG's basis, inter - month spread, spot spread, etc., which reflect the price trends and relationships of different products in the polyester industry chain from 2020 to 2025 [15][18][22][23][25][28][31][38]. 3.6. Inventory Analysis - There are inventory data charts of PTA, MEG, PET chips, polyester fibers, etc., including factory inventory days, port inventory, and inventory days of weaving machines in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, which reflect the inventory levels and trends of different products in the polyester industry chain from 2021 to 2025 [41][42][44][46][47][51]. 3.7. Polyester Upstream and Downstream开工率 - **Upstream**: There are charts showing the operating rates of PTA, paraxylene, and ethylene glycol in the polyester industry chain from 2020 to 2025, which reflect the production activities of upstream products [52][53][55]. - **Downstream**: There are charts showing the operating rates of polyester factories and Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving machines in the PTA industry chain from 2020 to 2025, which reflect the production activities of downstream products [56][57][59]. 3.8. Profit - There are profit - related charts of PTA, MEG, polyester fibers (short - fiber, DTY, POY, FDY), etc., which reflect the profit trends of different products in the polyester industry chain from 2022 to 2025. It should be noted that the profit calculation is mainly for observing trends [60][63][66][67][69].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-08-06燃料油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 5 价差数据 库存数据 燃料油： 1、基本面：亚洲低硫燃料油市场结构小幅回升，但受供应充足及现货船货竞争性报价影响，含硫0.5%船 用燃料油现货升水进一步下跌至四个多月新低。贸易商表示，随着西方套利船货陆续抵达新加坡，8月新 加坡区域库存将显著累积；中性 2、基差：新加坡高硫燃料油404.53美元/吨，基差为150元/吨，新加坡低硫燃料油为505.5美元/吨，基差 为157元/吨，现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：新加坡燃料油7月30日当周库存为2027.9万桶，增加37万桶；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方，20日线偏下；偏空 5、主力持仓： ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-8-6 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：近期尿素盘面震荡。此前反内卷情绪导致的原料端涨幅开始回落。国内供应方面， 日产及开工率仍处于偏高位置，库存再度累库。需求端，工业需求中复合肥开工持续回落，三聚 氰胺开工亦回落，农业淡季需求持续回落。国内尿素整体供过于求仍明显，出口政策未超预期放 开。交割品现货1800（+0），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： UR2509合约基差28，升贴水比例1.6%，偏多； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存147.7万吨（+4.6），偏空； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线走平，收盘价位于20日线上，偏多； • 5. 主力持仓：UR主力持仓净多，翻多，偏多； • 6. 预期：尿素主力合约盘面 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For LLDPE, the overall fundamentals are neutral, with cost support as a positive factor and weak demand as a negative factor. It is expected to show a volatile trend today due to factors such as the decline of the increase driven by macro - stability policies, the off - season of agricultural film demand, and weak downstream demand [4][6]. - For PP, the overall fundamentals are also neutral, with cost support as a positive factor and weak demand in sectors like pipes and plastic weaving as a negative factor. It is also expected to show a volatile trend today considering the decline of the increase driven by macro - stability policies and weak downstream demand [7][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: The official manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, still in the contraction range. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced a growth - stabilizing plan. The short - term increase pulled by anti - involution sentiment and oil prices have declined. In the supply - demand aspect, it is the off - season for agricultural films, and other film demands are flat with many downstream enterprises under maintenance. The current spot price of the LLDPE delivery product is 7270 (-30), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2509 contract is - 53, with a premium - discount ratio of - 0.7%, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 49.1 tons (-7.2), which is neutral [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is flat, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish signal [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, also a bearish signal [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate today due to factors such as the decline of the increase driven by macro - stability policies, the off - season of agricultural film demand, and weak downstream demand [4]. - **Leverage Factors**: Positive factor is cost support; negative factor is weak demand [6]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the official manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, still in the contraction range. The short - term increase pulled by anti - involution sentiment and oil prices have declined. In the supply - demand aspect, it is the off - season for downstream demand, and affected by high temperature and heavy rain in summer, the demands for pipes and plastic weaving are weak. The current spot price of the PP delivery product is 7100 (-50), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [7]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2509 contract is 5, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.1%, which is neutral [7]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 56.5 tons (-1.6), showing a bearish signal [7]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is flat, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish signal [7]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, also a bearish signal [7]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate today due to factors such as the decline of the increase driven by macro - stability policies and weak downstream demand in pipes and plastic weaving [7]. - **Leverage Factors**: Positive factor is cost support; negative factor is weak demand [9]. Spot and Futures Market Data - **LLDPE**: The current spot price of the delivery product is 7270 (-30), and prices of different futures contracts such as the 09 contract, L01, L05, etc. have corresponding changes. The basis of the 09 contract is - 53 (-74). The warehouse receipt is 5816 (0), and there are details about import prices and spreads [10]. - **PP**: The current spot price of the delivery product is 7100 (-50), and prices of different futures contracts such as the 09 contract, PP01, PP05, etc. have corresponding changes. The basis of the 09 contract is 5 (-71). The warehouse receipt is 12305 (0), and there are details about import prices and spreads [10]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, production, net import volume, and other indicators have changed. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to be 4319.5 with a growth rate of 20.5% [15]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, production, net import volume, and other indicators have changed. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to be 4906 with a growth rate of 11.0% [17].

重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年8月6日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 1、基本面：特朗普表示本周决定美联储新理事，金价震荡回升；美国三大股指全线 收跌，欧洲三大股指收盘涨跌不一；美债收益率多数上涨，10年期美债收益率涨 1.17个基点报4.208%；美元指数涨0.01%报98.76，离岸人民币对美元小幅贬值报 7.1886；COMEX黄金期货涨0.25%报3435美元/盎司；中性 2、基差：黄金期货782.5，现货778.8，基差-3.7，现货贴水期货；中性 3、库存：黄金期货仓单36009千克，增加120千克；偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向上，k线在20日均线上方；偏多 5、主 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply pressure of PVC has rebounded, with domestic demand recovery being sluggish. The current demand may remain weak, and the PVC2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4925 - 5037. The main logic is the strong overall supply pressure and the poor recovery of domestic demand [6][9][14]. - There are both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages. Negative factors include the rebound of overall supply pressure, high inventory levels with slow consumption, and weak domestic and external demand [13]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Fundamentals**: Overall bearish. In July 2025, PVC production was 2.00461 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.67%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 76.84%, with no change from the previous week. The production of calcium carbide enterprises decreased by 4.06% month - on - month, while that of ethylene enterprises increased by 12.82% month - on - month. The downstream overall开工率 was 42.05%, a slight increase but still below the historical average. The cost of calcium carbide and ethylene has increased, and production scheduling may be under pressure [6][8]. - **Basis**: On August 4, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4980 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was - 1 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot price was at a discount to the futures price, a neutral situation [11]. - **Inventory**: Factory inventory decreased by 3.28% month - on - month, with calcium carbide factory inventory decreasing by 3.12% and ethylene factory inventory decreasing by 3.85%. However, social inventory increased by 4.91% month - on - month, and the inventory days of production enterprises decreased by 3.33%. Overall, it is bearish [11]. - **Disk**: The MA20 was upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed below the MA20, a neutral situation [11]. - **Main Position**: The main position was net short, with an increase in short positions, a bearish situation [11]. 3.2 PVC Market Overview - Various indicators such as enterprise prices, monthly spreads, downstream开工率, profit, and cost showed different degrees of changes. For example, the prices of some enterprises decreased, and the profit of calcium carbide and ethylene methods showed different degrees of improvement or decline [16]. 3.3 PVC Futures Market - **Basis Trend**: The report presents the basis trend of PVC from 2022 to 2025, along with the market price in East China and the closing price of the main contract [18][19]. - **Price and Volume Trends**: It shows the price, trading volume, and position changes of PVC futures in July - August 2025, including the opening price, highest price, lowest price, closing price, and the net position changes of the top 5 and 20 seats [21][22]. - **Spread Analysis**: Presents the spread trends of the main contracts from 2024 to 2025, such as the 1 - 9 spread and 5 - 9 spread [24][25]. 3.4 PVC Fundamentals - **Calcium Carbide Method - Related**: Analyzes the price, cost, profit,开工率, and inventory of raw materials such as blue charcoal, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, and caustic soda from multiple years [27][30][32][34]. - **PVC Supply Trend**: Shows the capacity utilization rate, production, and maintenance volume of calcium carbide and ethylene methods from 2018 - 2025, as well as the daily and weekly production of PVC [39][41]. - **Demand Trend**: Analyzes the sales volume, pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, and downstream开工率 of PVC from multiple years, and also examines the relationship between PVC demand and real estate and social financing data [43][45][47][55][58]. - **Inventory**: Presents the exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide and ethylene factory inventories, social inventory, and inventory days of production enterprises from 2019 - 2025 [59][60]. - **Ethylene Method**: Analyzes the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and price spreads from multiple years [61][62]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Shows the monthly supply - demand trends of PVC from June 2024 to July 2025, including production, import, export, demand, and inventory [64][65].