交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 碳酸锂期货早报 2025年10月30日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，上周碳酸锂产量为21308吨，环比增长1.14%,高于历史同期平均水平。 需求端来看，上周磷酸铁锂样本企业库存为104347吨，环比增加1.49%,上周三元材料样本企业 库存为18592吨，环比增加3.50%。 3 成本端来看，外购锂辉石精矿成本为79574元/吨，日环比增长0.23%,生产所得为-1542元/ 吨，有所亏损；外购锂云母成本为84524元/吨，日环比增长1.81%,生产所得为-8509元/吨， 有所亏损；回收端生产成本接近矿石端成本，排产积极性一般；盐湖端季度现金生产成本为 31477元/吨，盐湖端成本显著低于矿石端，盈利空 ...

Report Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the industry. Core Views - **M2601 Soybean Meal**: Expected to oscillate between 2940 and 3000. Influenced by US soybean trends, October's high import volume of soybeans, and spot price discounts, it will likely maintain a short - term oscillatory pattern [9]. - **A2601 Soybeans**: Forecasted to fluctuate between 4060 and 4160. Affected by US soybean trends, high import volumes of soybeans, and expectations of a new domestic soybean harvest, it will also stay in a short - term oscillatory state [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - **Soybean Meal**: Forecasted to oscillate between 2940 - 3000. Neutral in terms of fundamentals and price trends; basis shows a discount, which is bearish; inventory reduction is bullish; the main position shows a decrease in short positions and capital outflows, which is bearish [9]. - **Soybeans**: Expected to fluctuate between 4060 - 4160. Neutral in terms of fundamentals and price trends; basis is neutral; inventory increase is bearish; the main position shows an increase in short positions and capital inflows, which is bearish [11]. 2. Recent News - Sino - US tariff negotiations remain deadlocked, causing short - term bearish sentiment for US soybeans. The US soybean market will oscillate above the thousand - point mark, awaiting further guidance on US soybean production and Sino - US tariff negotiations [13]. - In October, the domestic import volume of soybeans remained high, and the inventory of soybean meal at oil mills declined from its high. The soybean meal market will return to an oscillatory pattern [13]. - Reduced domestic pig - farming profits have led to low expectations for pig restocking, suppressing the price of soybean meal. However, uncertainties in Sino - US trade negotiations have caused the soybean meal market to return to an oscillatory pattern [13]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Soybean Meal Bullish**: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory pressure of soybean meal at domestic oil mills, and uncertain weather in US soybean - producing areas [14]. - **Soybean Meal Bearish**: High total import volume of domestic soybeans in October, US soybean harvest and continuous expectations of a bumper harvest [14]. - **Soybean Bullish**: Cost of imported soybeans supports the domestic soybean market, and expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports price expectations [15]. - **Soybean Bearish**: Bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and increased Chinese procurement, and expected increase in new domestic soybean production suppressing price expectations [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in East China is 2930, with a basis of - 39, showing a discount to futures. The inventory of soybean meal at oil mills is 118.92 million tons, a 4.86% decrease from last week and a 3.04% decrease year - on - year [9]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price is 4100, with a basis of 13, showing a discount to futures. The inventory of soybeans at oil mills is 719.91 million tons, a 3.63% increase from last week and a 14.38% increase year - on - year [11]. 5. Position Data - **Soybean Meal**: The main short positions decreased, and capital flowed out [9]. - **Soybeans**: The main short positions increased, and capital flowed in [11].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪镍&不锈钢早报—2025年10月30日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资：F3023048 投资咨询证：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 沪镍 每日观点 1、基本面：美联储如期降息25基点，外盘反弹。产业链上，镍矿价格坚挺，菲律宾雨季慢慢来临，矿 山挺价，海运费本周维稳。镍铁价格稳中有降，成本线继续向下有所松动。不锈钢库存小幅回落，再次 去库存，关注可持续性。新能源汽车产销数据良好，三元电池装车有所回升，但总体提振有限。中长线 过剩格局不变。偏空 2、基差：现货121900，基差360，中性 3、库存：LME库存251706，+270，上交所仓单31433，+48，偏空 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线以下，20均线向上，中性 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增，偏空 6、结论：沪镍2512：20均线上下宽幅震荡思路。 不锈钢 每日观点 1、基本面：现货不锈 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪锌期货早报-2025年10月30日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85225791 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 指标体系 沪锌: 1、基本面：世界金属统计局（WBMS）公布的最新报告显示，2025年8月，全 球锌板产量为115.07万吨，消费量为117.17万吨，供应短缺2.1万吨。2025 年1-8月，全球锌板产量为908.85万吨，消费量为936.98万吨，供应短缺 28.13万吨。2025年8月，全球锌矿产量为106.96万吨。2025年1-8月，全球 锌矿产量为844.57万吨；偏多。 2、基差：现货22330，基差-100；中性。 3、库存：10月29日LME锌库存较上日减少50吨至35200吨，10月29日上期所 锌库存仓单较上日减少847吨至67424吨；偏多。 4、盘面：昨日沪锌震荡上涨走势，收20日均 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - For螺纹, with weak demand, low - rising inventory, and a continued downward cycle in the downstream real - estate industry, it should be treated with a bearish - trending - with - fluctuations mindset. The main factors are weak real - estate demand, and the plan of domestic production capacity reduction [2]. - For热卷, due to weakening supply and demand, continued inventory reduction, export difficulties, and the plan of domestic production capacity reduction, it should also be treated with a bearish - trending - with - fluctuations mindset [7]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content 1. Fundamental Analysis - **螺纹**: Demand is poor, inventory is rising from a low level, and traders' purchasing willingness is weak. The downstream real - estate industry is in a downward cycle [2]. - **热卷**: Both supply and demand are weakening, inventory is decreasing, and exports are blocked, but domestic policies may play a role [7]. 2. Basis Analysis - **螺纹**: The spot price is 3240, and the basis is 107, which is bullish [2]. - **热卷**: The spot price is 3350, and the basis is 5, which is neutral [7]. 3. Inventory Analysis - **螺纹**: The inventory in 35 major cities across the country is 437.48 million tons, decreasing month - on - month and increasing year - on - year, which is neutral [2]. - **热卷**: The inventory in 33 major cities across the country is 337.57 million tons, decreasing month - on - month and increasing year - on - year, which is bearish [7]. 4. Disk Analysis - **螺纹**: The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward, which is neutral [2]. - **热卷**: The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is flat, which is bullish [7]. 5. Main Position Analysis - **螺纹**: The net position of the main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [2]. - **热卷**: The net position of the main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [7]. 6. Factors Analysis - **螺纹** - Bullish factors: Low production, spot premium, and domestic production capacity reduction expectation [4]. - Bearish factors: The downward cycle of the downstream real - estate industry continues, and terminal demand is weaker than the same period [4]. - **热卷** - Bullish factors: Fair demand, spot premium, and domestic production capacity reduction expectation [8]. - Bearish factors: Downstream demand enters the seasonal off - season, and the expectation is pessimistic [9].

重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 白糖早报——2025年10月30日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 1、基本面：Czarnikow:上调25/26年度全球食糖过剩预期至740万吨，比8月份预估高出120万吨。 StoneX:预计25/26年度全球糖市供应过剩277万吨。ISO:预计25/26年度全球食糖供应缺口为23.1 万吨，比之前预计缺口大幅减少。2025年8月底，24/25年度本期制糖全国累计产糖1116.21万吨； 全国累计销糖1000万吨；销糖率89.6%。2025年9月中国进口食糖55万吨，同比增加15万吨；进口 糖浆及预混粉等三项合计15.14万吨，同比减少13.51万吨。偏空。 2、基差：柳州现货5 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年10月30日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 1、基本面：昨日PTA期货震荡收涨，现货市场商谈氛围尚可，现货基差走强，贸易商商谈为主。个别主流供应商有出货。本周 在01贴水80附近有成交，下周在01贴水72~77附近成交，价格商谈区间在4505~4560附近。11月中主流在01贴水70成交，11月下 在01贴水65~68成交。12月下在01-50有成交。本周仓单在01-56有成交。今日主流现货基差在01-76。中性 6、预期：周内受下游聚酯产销提振，PTA现货基差小幅走强，市场成交重心逐步向11月偏移，绝对价格方面，预计短期内仍跟 随成本端震荡运行，关注装置变动情况 ...

证券代码：839979 2025-10-30投资咨询部 | 分析师: | 王明伟 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格号： | F0283029 | | 投资咨询号： | Z0010442 | | TEL: | 0575-85226759 | 每日观点 豆油 1.基本面：MPOB报告显示，MPOB月报显示马棕8月产量环比减少9.8%至162万吨，出口环比减少14.74%至 149万吨，月末库存环比减少2.6%至183万吨。报告中性，减产不及预期。目前船调机构显示本月目前马 棕出口数据环比增加4%，后续进入减产季，棕榈油供应上压力减小。中性 2.基差：豆油现货8322，基差190，现货升水期货。偏多 3.库存：9月22日豆油商业库存118万吨，前116万吨，环比+2万吨，同比+11.7% 。偏空 4.盘面：期价运行在20日均线下，20日均线朝下。偏空 5.主力持仓：豆油主力多增。偏多 6.预期：油脂价格震荡整理，国内基本面宽松，国内油脂供应稳定。中美关系僵持，美豆新豆出口受挫， 价格承压。马棕库存偏中性，需求有所好转，印尼B40促进国内消费，26年预计实施B50计划。国内油脂 基本面偏中性，进口库存稳定 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot is strong, domestic inventories are decreasing, and the tire operating rate is at a high level. The market has support below, and it is advisable to buy on dips [4]. 3) Summary by Directory Daily Hints - The fundamentals of natural rubber are neutral, with supply increasing, spot prices strong, domestic inventories decreasing, and high tire operating rates [4]. - The basis is -875, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - Exchange inventories and Qingdao region inventories are both decreasing, presenting a neutral situation [4]. - The price is running above the 20 - day line while the 20 - day line is downward, showing a neutral state [4]. - The main positions are net short with a reduction in short positions, suggesting a bearish outlook [4]. Fundamental Data - **Supply**: Supply is increasing [4][6]. - **Spot Price**: The spot price of 2023 full - latex (non - deliverable) remained flat on October 29th. The basis weakened on October 29th [8][35]. - **Inventory**: Exchange inventories and Qingdao region inventories are both in a state of continuous destocking [14][17]. - **Import**: Import volume has rebounded [20]. - **Downstream Consumption**: Automobile production and sales are seasonally rising, tire production and tire industry exports have reached new highs for the same period [23][29][32]. Multi - Empty Factors - **Likely to Rise**: High downstream consumption, resistant spot prices, and domestic anti - involution [6]. - **Likely to Fall**: Increasing supply, bearish domestic economic indicators, and trade frictions [6].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-10-30） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤： 6、预期：下游焦企利润修复，原料煤库存保持低位，对原料煤多维持适量补库。但由于盈利不佳，补 库动力不足，考虑目前仍处于补库周期，且焦炭价格仍有走强预期，对原料煤价格形成一定支撑，预计 短期焦煤价格或暂稳运行。 1、基本面：主产地环保、安全等方面措施进一步加强，煤矿生产依然受限。近期下游企业及贸易商对 焦煤采购量有所增多，煤矿新订单增加，煤矿产地库存快速消耗，带动矿方报价坚挺。加之主流大矿线 上竞拍成交价格也继续探涨，炼焦煤市场整体交投氛围良好，但由于终端利润薄弱，近期涨幅有所收窄 偏多 2、基差：现货市场价1380，基差78；现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：钢厂库存781.1万吨，港口库存295万 ...