Report Information - Report Title: Grease Morning Report - Report Date: February 6, 2026 - Analyst: Wang Mingwei - Qualification Number: F0283029 - Investment Consulting Number: Z0010442 - Contact Information: 0575-85226759 [1] 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of oils are in a state of shock consolidation. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic oil supply is stable. Sino-US relations are stalemated, the export of new US soybeans is frustrated, and prices are under pressure. Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, demand has improved, Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic oil fundamentals are neutral, and the imported inventory is stable. [2][3][4] 3. Summary of Different Oils 3.1 Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that Malaysia's palm oil production in December decreased by 5.46% month-on-month to 1.8298 million tons, exports increased by 8.55% month-on-month to 1.3165 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory increased by 7.59% month-on-month to 3.0506 million tons. The report is slightly bearish, and the inventory data exceeded expectations. Currently, shipping survey institutions show that Malaysia's palm oil export data in January has increased by 29% month-on-month. Subsequently, entering the production reduction season, the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease. [2] - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,422, the basis is 318, and the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. [2] - **Inventory**: On January 9, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.02 million tons, compared with 1.08 million tons previously, a month-on-month decrease of 60,000 tons, and a year-on-year increase of 14.7%. [2] - **Market Trend**: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. [2] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased. [2] - **Expectation**: The price of soybean oil (Y2605) will fluctuate in the range of 7,900 - 8,300. [2] 3.2 Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report data is the same, and the report is slightly bearish with inventory exceeding expectations. January's export data has increased by 29% month-on-month, and the supply pressure will decrease in the production reduction season. [3] - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 9,032, the basis is -10, and the spot price is at a discount to the futures price. [3] - **Inventory**: On January 9, the port inventory of palm oil was 736,000 tons, compared with 733,800 tons previously, a month-on-month increase of 2,200 tons, and a year-on-year increase of 46%. [3] - **Market Trend**: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. [3] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main palm oil contract have increased. [3] - **Expectation**: The price of palm oil (P2605) will fluctuate in the range of 8,900 - 9,300. [3] 3.3 Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: The same MPOB report data as above, slightly bearish with inventory exceeding expectations. January's export data has increased by 29% month-on-month, and the supply pressure will decrease in the production reduction season. [4] - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9,980, the basis is 836, and the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. [4] - **Inventory**: On January 9, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 250,000 tons, compared with 270,000 tons previously, a month-on-month decrease of 20,000 tons, and a year-on-year decrease of 44%. [4] - **Market Trend**: The futures price is running below the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is downward. [4] - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have decreased. [4] - **Expectation**: The price of rapeseed oil (OI2605) will fluctuate in the range of 9,000 - 9,400. [4] 4. Recent Bullish and Bearish Analysis - **Bullish Factors**: The US soybean inventory-to-sales ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply, and the palm oil tremor season. [5] - **Bearish Factors**: Oil prices are at a historically high level, domestic oil inventories are continuously increasing, the macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of relevant oils is high. [5] - **Main Logic**: The global oil fundamentals are relatively loose. [5]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂产量高位，整体供给预期充裕；下游浮法玻璃、光伏日熔量整体延续下滑趋势， 纯碱厂库处于历史同期高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1145元/吨，SA2605收盘价为1209元/吨，基差为-64元，期货升 水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存158.11万吨，较前一周增加2.39%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线上方运行，20日线向下；中性 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面不改疲弱，短期预计震荡偏弱运行为主。 纯碱早报 2026-2-6 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 影响因素总结 利多： 1、远兴能源二期产线满产时间预期延后。 利空： 主要逻辑和风险点 1、近期企业产线面临恢复，且 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 玻璃早报 2026-2-6 每日观点 玻璃： 利空： 1、地产终端需求依然疲弱，玻璃深加工企业订单数量历史同期低位。 2、深加工行业资金回款不乐观，贸易商、加工厂心态谨慎，消化原片库存为主。 主要逻辑和风险点 1、主要逻辑：玻璃供给低位，下游深加工厂订单惨淡，玻璃厂库回升，预期玻璃低位震荡偏弱运行为 主。 2、风险点： "反内卷"政策力度超预期 1、基本面：玻璃生产利润小幅修复，冷修不及预期，供给低位；地产拖累下游深加工订单偏弱， 库存同期历史高位；偏空 2、基差：浮法玻璃河北沙河大板现货944元/吨，FG2605收盘价为1088元/吨，基差为-144元，期 货升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国浮法玻璃企业库存5306.40万重量箱，较前一周增加0. ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2026-2-6 大越期货投资咨询部 朱天一 从业资格证号：F3020542 投资咨询证号： Z0021831 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：当前日产及开工率同比处高位，随检修回归预计开工将继续回升，综合库存回落， 去库形态较明显。需求端，虽临近春节但订单需求尚可，农业储备需求、贸易需求均良好，工业 需求方面，复合肥、三聚氰胺开工回升明显。出口内外价差大，近期下游需求尚可，国内尿素整 体仍供过于求。交割品现货1760（-0），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： UR2605合约基差-18，升贴水比例-1.0%，偏空； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存108.9万吨（+0.9），偏多； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线向上，收盘价位于20日线上，偏多； • 5. 主力持仓：UR主力持仓净空，增空，偏空； • 6. 预期：尿 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2026年2月6日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 利多： 1、基本面：昨日PTA期货震荡下跌，现货市场商谈氛围一版，现货基差走弱。本周货在05-75~85附近有成交，下周货在05- 63~65附近有成交，价格商谈区间在5050~5145。2下在05-55有成交。3月中在05-43有成交。今日主流现货基差在05-77。中性 2、基差：现货5115，05合约基差-29，盘面升水 中性 3、库存：PTA工厂库存3.74天，环比减少0.16天 偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向下，收盘价收于20日均线之下 偏空 5、主力持仓：净空 空减 偏空 6、预期：随着春节假期临近，聚酯减产幅度扩大 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2026-02-05原油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1. 美国总统特朗普对NBC新闻表示，伊朗最高领袖"应该非常担心"。特朗普发言后，美伊双方官员表示，双方已 同意于周五在阿曼举行会谈。然而双方仍存分歧：美国坚持将伊朗的导弹武器库纳入谈判范围，而伊朗则表示 只愿讨论其核计划。近几日，围绕会谈范围与地点的分歧引发外界质疑谈判能否如期举行，也让特朗普可能付 诸对伊朗动武威胁的可能性仍未排除。 2. 习近平周三同美国总统特朗普通电话。据新华社报道，习近平在通话中告诉特朗普，他愿在新的一年里同特朗 普"多办一些大事、好事"。习近平还强调，台湾问题是中美关系中最重要的问题。美方务必慎重处理对台军售 问题。习近平与普京视频会晤称：中俄要密切高层交往，加强各领域务实合作习近平周三同俄罗斯总统普京举 行视频会晤。习近平表示，中俄双方要把握历史契机，密切高层交往，加强各领域务实合作，以更深层次的战 略协作和更加积极有为的大国担当，确保中俄关系继续沿着正确轨道不断发展。俄 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is in a state of tight supply - demand balance, with sentiment fluctuations caused by news. The 2605 contract for lithium carbonate is expected to oscillate in the range of 140,040 - 153,440 yuan/ton. The supply side is predicted to see a decline in production and imports next month, while the demand side is expected to strengthen, and inventory may be depleted. [8][9][10][14] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 21,569 tons, a 2.91% week - on - week decrease but higher than the historical average. In January 2026, production was 97,900 physical tons, and next month's production is predicted to be 81,930 tons, a 16.31% month - on - month decrease. The import volume in January 2026 was 24,500 physical tons, and next month's import volume is predicted to be 21,800 tons, an 11.02% month - on - month decrease. [8][10] - **Demand**: Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 96,819 tons, a 0.24% week - on - week increase, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 18,691 tons, a 0.93% week - on - week decrease. Next month, demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may be depleted. [8][10] - **Cost**: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is 142,475 yuan/ton, unchanged day - on - day, with a production income of 8,641 yuan/ton, indicating profitability. The cost of purchased lithium mica is 144,570 yuan/ton, a 0.10% day - on - day increase, with a production income of 2,900 yuan/ton, also indicating profitability. The production cost of the recycling end is generally higher than that of the ore end, with negative production income and low production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end is 32,231 yuan/ton, significantly lower than the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation. [9] - **Comprehensive Evaluation**: The fundamentals are neutral; the basis shows that on February 4, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 153,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 5,780 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is bullish. The overall inventory is 107,482 tons, a 1.29% week - on - week decrease, equal to the historical average, which is neutral. The disk shows the MA20 moving upward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed below the MA20, which is neutral. The main positions are net short, with an increase in short positions, which is bearish. [9] - **Likely Factors**: Positive factors include the production cut plans of lithium mica manufacturers and a month - on - month decline in lithium carbonate imports from Chile. Negative factors include the continuous high supply at the ore and salt lake ends with limited downward amplitude. [12][13] 3.2 Lithium Carbonate Market Overview - **Price and Basis**: The futures closing prices of various contracts showed different degrees of decline, while the basis of some contracts increased. The registered warehouse receipts were 34,114 lots, a 3.11% increase. [17] - **Upstream Prices**: The price of 6% lithium spodumene decreased by 0.10% to 1,945 US dollars/ton; the price of lithium mica concentrate remained unchanged at 4,745 yuan/ton; the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.33% to 153,000 yuan/ton; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.33% to 149,500 yuan/ton. [17] - **Positive and Cathode Materials and Lithium Battery Prices**: The prices of most cathode materials and lithium batteries showed a downward trend, such as the price of ternary precursor 5523 polycrystalline consumer - type decreased by 0.10% to 104,750 yuan/ton, and the price of lithium iron phosphate power - type decreased by 0.22% to 54,265 yuan/ton. [17] 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - **Price and Production**: The price of lithium ore showed a long - term trend, and the production of Chinese sample lithium spodumene mines and domestic lithium mica showed different trends in different years. The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate also fluctuated, and the self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore showed different trends for lithium spodumene and lithium mica. [26] - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of domestic lithium ore showed different situations in different months. In some months, there was a supply surplus, while in others, there was a supply shortage. [29][31] 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - **Production and Capacity**: The weekly and monthly production and capacity of lithium carbonate from different sources (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt lake, and recycling materials) showed different trends. The monthly production and import volume of lithium carbonate also fluctuated. [33][34][35] - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate showed different situations in different months. In some months, there was a supply surplus, while in others, there was a supply shortage. [40] 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: The weekly capacity utilization rate and monthly production of lithium hydroxide from different sources (causticization and smelting) showed different trends. The export volume of lithium hydroxide also fluctuated. [43] - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide showed different situations in different months. In some months, there was a supply surplus, while in others, there was a supply shortage. [46] 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost - Profit - **Cost and Profit of Different Lithium Compounds**: The cost and profit of lithium compounds such as purchased lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica concentrate, and recycled lithium carbonate showed different trends over time. The processing cost composition of lithium mica and lithium spodumene also showed different proportions of energy consumption, auxiliary materials, and miscellaneous items. [49][52][54] 3.7 Inventory - **Lithium Carbonate Inventory**: The weekly and monthly inventory of lithium carbonate in smelters, downstream enterprises, and other aspects showed different trends. The inventory of lithium hydroxide also showed different trends. [58] 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - **Power Battery**: The price, production, and sales volume of power batteries showed different trends. The monthly production volume, loading volume, and export volume of power batteries also fluctuated. [60] - **Energy - Storage Battery**: The inventory, production, and winning bid situation of energy - storage batteries showed different trends. The monthly production volume and shipment volume of energy - storage battery cells also fluctuated. [62] 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - **Price, Cost, and Profit**: The price, cost, and profit of ternary precursors showed different trends. The capacity utilization rate and production volume of ternary precursors also showed different trends. [65] - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of ternary precursors showed different situations in different months. In some months, there was a supply surplus, while in others, there was a supply shortage. [68] 3.10 Demand - Ternary Material - **Price, Cost, and Profit**: The price, cost, and profit of ternary materials showed different trends. The weekly operating rate and production volume of ternary materials also showed different trends. [72] - **Import and Export and Inventory**: The import and export volume and weekly inventory of ternary materials also showed different trends. [74] 3.11 Demand - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium - **Price, Cost, and Profit**: The price, cost, and profit of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium showed different trends. The monthly operating rate and production volume of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium also showed different trends. [76] - **Export and Inventory**: The monthly export volume and weekly inventory of iron phosphate lithium also showed different trends. [79][81] 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - **Production, Sales, and Export**: The production, sales, and export volume of new energy vehicles showed different trends. The sales penetration rate, retail - wholesale ratio, and dealer inventory index of new energy vehicles also showed different trends. [84][85][88]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - No information provided 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Option Quotes - The daily percentage changes of call options for fuel oil, asphalt, and short - fiber are 97.27%, 46.67%, and 43.38% respectively. The daily percentage changes of put options for offset printing paper, lead, and corn are 12.24%, 6.80%, and 6.25% respectively [1] Option Positions - The daily changes in call option positions for methanol, PTA, and fuel oil are 33565, 16765, and 12896 respectively. The daily changes in put option positions for PTA, glass, and soda ash are 32223, 24052, and 12483 respectively [2] Option Position Put - Call Ratio (PCR) - High - position PCR varieties include apple (1.5705), propylene (1.1986), and offset printing paper (1.1185). Low - position PCR varieties include alumina (0.2203), live pigs (0.2572), and soda ash (0.2926) [5] Option Volume Put - Call Ratio (PCR) - High - volume PCR varieties include apple (1.5386), iron ore (1.3131), and palladium (1.2957). Low - volume PCR varieties include alumina (0.2083), natural rubber (0.2091), and red dates (0.2174) [6] Daily Selections - Call option selections include PVC, soda ash, and alumina with trend degrees of 55, 49, and 49 respectively. Put option selections include lead, eggs, and lithium carbonate with trend degrees of - 55, - 55, and - 47 respectively [7] Near - Expiration Options - For call options of near - expiration options, such as lithium carbonate, the option closing price is 2430.0, the underlying settlement price is 148020.0, and the break - even underlying price and its increase rate are 152436.0 and 2.98% respectively. For put options, such as lithium carbonate, the option closing price is 4100.0, the underlying settlement price is 148020.0, and the break - even underlying price and its decrease rate are 143894.0 and - 2.79% respectively [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic methanol market is likely to experience low - level fluctuations this week. Inland methanol supply is relatively abundant, but some traditional downstream industries are shutting down for the Spring Festival, which exerts a certain downward pressure on the market. However, there is still restocking demand from some downstream sectors, and the current methanol prices in production and sales areas are at the bottom, with strong freight rates supporting the arrival prices in sales areas. Therefore, inland methanol is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. In the port area, the pressure boundary has moved up to 2400. Without macro - level hype points, the port spot market is expected to fluctuate within the range below the pressure level this week. Overall, the methanol price is expected to show a relatively strong upward - trending fluctuation, with MA2605 operating between 2220 - 2300 [5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Tips - The domestic methanol market is expected to have low - level fluctuations this week. Inland methanol supply is loose, and some traditional downstream industries are on holiday, but there is restocking demand. The port market is expected to fluctuate below the 2400 pressure level. The methanol price is expected to be relatively strong and fluctuate, with MA2605 in the 2220 - 2300 range [5]. 3.2 Long and Short Concerns 3.2.1 Bullish Factors - Some plants have shut down, such as Yulin Kaiyue and Xinjiang Xinya [6]. - Methanol production in Iran has decreased, and port inventories are at a low level [6]. - A 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant in Jingmen started production on May 16, and a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant in Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong is planned to be put into production in late May [6]. - CTO plants in the northwest are purchasing methanol externally [6]. 3.2.2 Bearish Factors - Some previously shut - down plants have resumed production, such as Inner Mongolia Donghua [7]. - There will be concentrated vessel arrivals at the port in the second half of the month [7]. - Formaldehyde has entered the traditional off - season, and MTBE operating rates have dropped significantly [7]. - Coal - to - methanol production has a certain profit margin, and producers are actively selling [7]. - Some plants in the production areas have accumulated inventories due to poor sales [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Price Data - Spot market: The price of thermal coal in the Bohai Rim region decreased by 3 yuan/ton to 682 yuan/ton; the CFR price at the main port in China increased by 1 US dollar/ton to 268 US dollars/ton; the import cost increased by 6 yuan/ton to 2308 yuan/ton. The prices of methanol in different domestic regions showed different trends, with prices in Shandong, Hebei, and Fujian changing to varying degrees [8]. - Futures market: The futures closing price increased by 32 yuan/ton to 2279 yuan/ton, and the number of registered warrants remained unchanged at 7082 [8]. - Spread structure: The basis decreased by 19 yuan/ton to - 41 yuan/ton; the import spread decreased by 26 yuan/ton to 29 yuan/ton [8]. 3.3.2 Operating Rate Data - The weighted average national operating rate decreased by 3.81% to 74.90%. The operating rates in different regions, such as East China, Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest, all decreased to varying degrees [8]. 3.3.3 Inventory Data - As of January 29, 2026, the total social inventory of methanol in the ports of East and South China was 993,800 tons, a decrease of 26,100 tons from the previous period. The total available and tradable methanol in coastal areas (Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and South China) decreased by 30,800 tons to 499,400 tons [5]. 3.4 Maintenance Status 3.4.1 Domestic Methanol Plant Maintenance - Many domestic methanol plants are under maintenance, including Shaanxi Black Cat, Qinghai Zhonghao, Shaanxi Huangling, etc. The maintenance periods and losses vary by plant [60]. 3.4.2 Overseas Methanol Plant Maintenance - Some overseas methanol plants are in different operating states. For example, some Iranian plants are in the process of restarting, and some plants in the United States and other regions are operating normally or at a low level [61]. 3.4.3 Olefin Plant Maintenance - Some domestic olefin plants are under maintenance, such as Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy, which shut down for maintenance on March 15, and some plants have normal operations or are planning future maintenance [62].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2026-2-5 大越期货投资咨询部 朱天一 从业资格证号：F3020542 投资咨询证号： Z0021831 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，官方1月制造业PMI为49.3%，较上月回落0.8个百分点，落入收缩区间。 OPEC+2月1日部长级会议重申去年11月2日决定，因季节性需求疲软暂停2026年第一季度的增产计 划。近期受伊朗等地缘政治扰动影响，原油走势偏强，带动装置利润差、成本支撑强的聚烯烃跟 随波动。供需端，临近春节，农膜方面，停工放假企业增多，整体订单少，包装膜企业同样订单 偏少。当前LL交割品现货价6750（-0），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2605合约基差-168，升贴水比例-2.4%，偏空； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存40.3万吨（+5.4），中性； • 4. 盘面： ...