证券代码：839979 油脂早报 2025-10-16投资咨询部 | 分析师: | 王明伟 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格号： | F0283029 | | 投资咨询号： | Z0010442 | | TEL: | 0575-85226759 | 每日观点 豆油 1.基本面：MPOB报告显示，MPOB月报显示马棕8月产量环比减少9.8%至162万吨，出口环比减少14.74%至 149万吨，月末库存环比减少2.6%至183万吨。报告中性，减产不及预期。目前船调机构显示本月目前马 棕出口数据环比增加4%，后续进入减产季，棕榈油供应上压力减小。中性 2.基差：豆油现货8432，基差180，现货升水期货。偏多 3.库存：8月22日豆油商业库存118万吨，前116万吨，环比+2万吨，同比+11.7% 。偏空 4.盘面：期价运行在20日均线下，20日均线朝下。偏空 5.主力持仓：豆油主力空减。偏空 6.预期：油脂价格震荡整理，国内基本面宽松，国内油脂供应稳定。中美关系僵持，美豆新豆出口受挫， 价格承压。马棕库存偏中性，需求有所好转，印尼B40促进国内消费，26年预计实施B50计划。国内油脂 基本面偏中性，进 ...

沪镍 每日观点 1、基本面：外盘震荡盘整。产业链上，镍矿价格坚挺，菲律宾雨季慢慢来临，矿山挺价，部分地区有 地震，但对开采影响有限。镍铁价格弱稳，成本线坚挺，镍铁企业仍然亏损。不锈钢库存国庆期间回升。 新能源汽车产销数据良好，三元电池装车仍然呈现下降，对镍需求提升有限。中长线过剩格局不变。偏 空 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪镍&不锈钢早报—2025年10月16日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资：F3023048 投资咨询证：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 2、基差：现货122300，基差1120，偏多 6、结论：沪镍2511：宽幅震荡思路，逢高仍可试空。 3、库存：LME库存246756，+3498，上交所仓单26558，+1531，偏空 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线以下，20均线向上，中性 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减，偏空 不锈钢 每日观点 1、基本面：现货不锈钢价格 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 白糖早报——2025年10月16日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 1、基本面：Czarnikow:上调25/26年度全球食糖过剩预期至740万吨，比8月份预估高出120万吨。 StoneX:预计25/26年度全球糖市供应过剩277万吨。ISO:预计25/26年度全球食糖供应缺口为23.1 万吨，比之前预计缺口大幅减少。2025年8月底，24/25年度本期制糖全国累计产糖1116.21万吨； 全国累计销糖1000万吨；销糖率89.6%。2025年8月中国进口食糖83万吨，同比增加6万吨；进口糖 浆及预混粉等三项合计11.55万吨，同比减少15.57万吨。偏空。 2、基差：柳州现货58 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The previous trading day saw the Shanghai Zinc futures showing a volatile trend, closing with a doji star, accompanied by shrinking trading volume. Both long and short positions reduced, with the long - side reduction being more significant. Overall, it was a volatile trend with shrinking volume. The bulls actively exited the market, and the bears also actively left. In the short term, the market may oscillate and weaken. Technically, the price closed below the moving average system, losing the support of the moving average. The short - term KDJ indicator declined, running at the strength - weakness demarcation point. The trend indicator declined, with the bullish strength decreasing and the bearish strength increasing, and the dominance of the bearish strength expanding. It is recommended that the Shanghai Zinc ZN2511 contract will oscillate and weaken [21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Analysis - In July 2025, global zinc plate production was 1.1515 million tons, consumption was 1.1629 million tons, with a supply shortage of 11,300 tons. From January to July, global zinc plate production was 7.9452 million tons, consumption was 8.1585 million tons, with a supply shortage of 213,300 tons. In July, global zinc ore production was 1.0656 million tons. From January to July, global zinc ore production was 7.3437 million tons, which is a bullish factor [2]. - The basis is +55, which is neutral [2]. - On October 15, the LME zinc inventory decreased by 250 tons to 38,350 tons compared with the previous day, and the SHFE zinc inventory warrants increased by 7,172 tons to 65,666 tons compared with the previous day, which is neutral [2]. - The main positions are net short, and the short positions increased, which is a bearish factor [2]. 3.2 Futures Market Quotes - On October 15, the trading volume of zinc futures contracts on the futures exchange totaled 232,694 lots, with a total trading value of 2.56184847 billion yuan. The open interest of all contracts was 210,731 lots, an increase of 675 lots [3]. 3.3 Spot Market Quotes - On October 15, the prices of zinc - related products in the domestic spot market generally declined. For example, the price of zinc concentrate in Linzhou was 17,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 160 yuan/ton; the price of zinc ingots in Shanghai was 22,070 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton [4]. 3.4 Inventory Statistics - From September 25 to October 13, the total social inventory of zinc ingots in major Chinese markets increased from 1.354 million tons to 1.535 million tons, an increase of 251,000 tons compared with September 29 and 174,000 tons compared with October 9 [5]. 3.5 Warehouse Receipt Report - On October 15, the total SHFE zinc warehouse receipts were 65,666 tons, an increase of 7,172 tons. Among them, the warehouse receipts in Guangdong increased by 3,211 tons, and those in Tianjin increased by 4,236 tons [6]. 3.6 LME Zinc Inventory - On October 15, the LME zinc inventory decreased by 250 tons to 38,350 tons. The注销 ratio in Singapore was 36.38%, and in Hong Kong, China, it was 1.89% [8]. 3.7 Zinc Concentrate Processing Fees - On October 15, the processing fees for zinc concentrates in different regions varied. For example, in HIT HA, the average processing fee for 50% grade zinc concentrate was 3,400 yuan/metal ton, and the import processing fee for 48% grade zinc concentrate was 105 US dollars/dry ton [17]. 3.8 Member Trading and Position Ranking - For the zn2511 contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange on October 15, the total trading volume of members was 204,084 lots, an increase of 194 lots. The total long - position volume was 63,360 lots, a decrease of 2,569 lots, and the total short - position volume was 61,669 lots, a decrease of 1,671 lots [19]. 3.9 Refined Zinc Production - In September 2025, the production of refined zinc was 499,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.53% and a year - on - year increase of 16.13%. The planned production in October is 509,600 tons [15].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号： Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 铁矿石早报（2025-10-16） 利空： 1.铁水产量保持高位。 2.港口库存减少。 3.进口亏损 4.下游钢材价格上涨，高价原料承受能力强 1. 后期发货量增加。 2. 终端需求依旧弱势。 每日观点 铁矿石： 1、基本面：钢厂铁水产量开始减少，供应端本月到港水平有所降低，总体供需宽松，港口库存减少，市场 将出台粗钢压减政策，贸易战缓和；中性 2、基差：日照港PB粉现货折合盘面价817，基差40；日照港巴混现货折合盘面价833，基差56，现货升水期 货；偏多 3、库存：港口库存14641.08万吨，环比增加，同比减少；中性 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方,20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：铁矿主力持仓净多，多减；偏多 6、预期：国内需求降低，去产 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2025-10-16 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，9月份，官方PMI为49.8，比上月上升0.4个百分点，制造业景气度有所 改善，但仍位于收缩区间。原油中长期 "供增需减" 格局未改，对聚烯烃成本端支撑有限。10 日，特朗普威胁对中国加征100%关税，中美贸易争端升级可能性再度提升，油价大幅回落，供需 端，装置检修减少，负荷窄幅提升，产量有所增加，农膜开工运行平稳，其余膜类随双11临近需 求良好。当前LL交割品现货价6960（-30），基本面整体偏空； • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2601合约基差42，升贴水比例0.6%，偏多； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存54.3万吨（+11.3），中性； • 4. 盘面： ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. The supply is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the supply - demand mismatch pattern in the industry has not been effectively improved. However, during the peak maintenance period within the year, the output is expected to decline [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of soda ash futures is 1232 yuan/ton, the low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe is 1160 yuan/ton, and the main basis is - 72 yuan/ton. The closing price of the main contract decreased by 0.16% compared with the previous value, the price in Shahe remained unchanged, and the basis decreased by 2.70% [6]. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1160 yuan/ton, which is the same as the previous day [11]. Supply in Fundamentals - Production profit: The profit of heavy soda ash by North China ammonia - soda process is - 89.25 yuan/ton, and that by East China co - production process is - 114.50 yuan/ton, and the production profit has rebounded from the historical low [14]. -开工率和产能产量: The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash is 88.41%, and the weekly output is 77.08 tons, including 42.87 tons of heavy soda ash, with the output at a historical high [17][19]. - Industry capacity changes: From 2023 to 2025, there has been a large - scale expansion of soda ash capacity. The total planned new capacity in 2023 is 640 tons, 180 tons in 2024, and 750 tons in 2025, with an actual production of 100 tons in 2025 [21]. Demand in Fundamentals - Sales - to - production ratio: The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 92.23% [24]. - Downstream demand: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 16.13 tons, and the operating rate is 76.01% and stable; the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass shows a downward trend, and the demand for soda ash is weakening [27]. Inventory in Fundamentals - The inventory of soda ash plants nationwide is 165.98 tons, an increase of 0.50% compared with the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [34]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheet from 2017 to 2024E shows changes in effective capacity, production, operating rate, import, export, net import, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate of soda ash over the years [35].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 1、基本面：产地供应基本稳定。受近期焦炭价格企稳影响，焦煤市场情绪尚可，煤矿出货压力较小， 多挺价观望。加之部分焦企开始适当采购，矿方询价增多，影响近期线上竞拍成交价涨多跌少，部分库 存压力小的煤矿出现小幅探涨意愿；中性 2、基差：现货市场价1260，基差109；现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：钢厂库存781.1万吨，港口库存295万吨，独立焦企库存819.3万吨，总样本库存1895.4万吨， 较上周减少76.2万吨；偏多 6、预期：铁水近期虽有小幅下滑，但总体仍在高位，刚需仍有支撑，下游库存暂时处于安全位置，近 期也陆续重启采购计划，但由于焦钢盈利状况普遍不佳，对高价煤较为抵触，预计短期焦煤价格或弱稳 运行。 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-10-16） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core View The fundamentals of glass are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 1129 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.79% from the previous value; the spot price of Shahe Safety large - board glass was 1124 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.71% from the previous value; the main basis was - 5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16.67% from the previous value [8]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - board in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark, was 1124 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton from the previous day [13]. Fundamentals - Cost Side - The report mentions glass production profit but does not provide specific data. Fundamentals - Supply - The number of operating national float glass production lines was 225, with an operating rate of 76.01%, at a historically low level in the same period. The daily melting volume of national float glass was 161,300 tons, at the lowest level in the same period in history and showing a stable recovery [24][26]. Fundamentals - Demand - In August 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.8602 million tons [30]. Fundamentals - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises was 62.824 million weight - boxes, an increase of 5.84% from the previous week, and the inventory was running above the five - year average [46]. Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2017 to 2024E, the production, consumption, and other data of float glass showed different trends. For example, in 2024E, the production was 55.1 million tons, with a growth rate of 3.94%, and the consumption was 53.1 million tons, with a growth rate of - 1.15% [47]. Influencing Factors - **Positive Factors**: Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, there is an expectation of capacity clearance in the float glass industry. Some production lines in the Shahe area are undergoing "coal - to - gas" conversion, increasing supply - side disturbances [5]. - **Negative Factors**: The terminal demand in the real estate industry remains weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low in the same period. The capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly digesting the inventory of raw glass [6]. Main Logic - The glass supply has declined to a relatively low level in the same period. Although there have been more supply - side disturbances recently, the recovery of terminal demand is weak, and it is expected that glass will mainly fluctuate [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PTA: After the holiday, the spot market negotiation atmosphere was average, and the spot basis weakened slightly. With some PTA device maintenance and production reduction, and the postponement of new device production, the PTA supply - demand outlook improved. It is expected that the short - term spot price will fluctuate following the cost side. Attention should be paid to device changes and downstream production and sales [5]. - MEG: This week, the arrival at the main port of ethylene glycol is still high, and the port inventory is expected to rise early next week. In October, the supply - demand pattern of ethylene glycol turns to inventory accumulation, with an overall accumulation of about 50,000 tons, and there is continuous inventory accumulation pressure in the far - month. It is expected that the short - term ethylene glycol market will operate weakly. Attention should be paid to external factors and device changes [7]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Previous Day's Review No relevant information provided. 3.2. Daily Tips - **PTA** - Fundamental: The PTA futures fluctuated at a low level yesterday. The negotiation atmosphere in the spot market was average, and the spot basis was weak. The trading was mainly among traders, and the polyester factories' purchasing enthusiasm was limited. The mainstream price for October goods was negotiated and traded at around 85 points discount to the 01 contract, with individual prices slightly higher, and the price negotiation range was around 4,305 - 4,345. Today's mainstream spot basis is 01 - 85 [5]. - Basis: The spot price is 4,325, the basis of the 01 contract is - 97, and the futures price is at a premium. It is neutral [6]. - Inventory: The PTA factory inventory is 4.22 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.47 days. It is bearish [6]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average. It is bearish [6]. - Main position: The net short position increased. It is bearish [6]. - **MEG** - Fundamental: On Wednesday, the price center of ethylene glycol fluctuated in a low range, and the market negotiation was average. The night - session of ethylene glycol opened lower and consolidated, and the trading in the market was weak. In the morning, affected by the news of additional port charges for existing ships, the ethylene glycol disk rose slightly, and then the market maintained a narrow - range shock. In the afternoon, the basis fell slightly, and the spot was traded at around a 63 - 65 yuan/ton premium to the 01 contract. In terms of US dollars, the external price center of ethylene glycol adjusted at a low level. The recent cargo was negotiated at around 483 - 487 US dollars/ton, and there were transactions at around 484 US dollars/ton for recent cargo during the day. The trading was mainly participated by traders [7]. - Basis: The spot price is 4,122, the basis of the 01 contract is 65, and the futures price is at a discount. It is neutral [8]. - Inventory: The total inventory in the East China region is 445,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 40,800 tons. It is bearish [8]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average. It is bearish [8]. - Main position: The main net short position decreased. It is bearish [7]. 3.3. Today's Focus - **Positive Factors** - Before the holiday, driven by the recovery of demand and the rebound of oil prices, the sales of the polyester market were booming. The equity inventory of POY and FDY in the pre - spinning of filament yarn quickly decreased to about half a month, and the prices rebounded by 100 - 150 yuan. During the holiday, the polyester prices were stable, and the production and sales of filament yarn were only 10% - 20%. The average inventory accumulation in 8 days is expected to exceed 5 days [9]. - Some PTA device maintenance and production reduction, and the postponement of new device production [10]. - **Negative Factors** - A 3.6 - million - ton PTA device in East China is currently gradually increasing its operation to over 90%. This device reduced its load around October 7 [11]. - **Current Main Logic and Risk Points** - The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and attention should be paid to the upper resistance level when the disk rebounds [12]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It records the PTA production capacity, load, output, import, supply, polyester production capacity, load, consumption, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025, as well as the supply - demand gap and inventory changes [13]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It records the ethylene glycol production, import, supply, polyester production capacity, load, consumption, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025, as well as the supply - demand gap and port inventory changes [14]. - **Price Data**: It includes the price trends of bottle - grade chips, production margins, operating rates, inventory, spreads, and other data from 2020 to 2025, covering PTA, MEG, and polyester products [16][19][23][24][26][30][33][37][40][42][51][53][57][62][63][66].