交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 玻璃早报 2025-8-1 每日观点 玻璃： 1、基本面： "反内卷"情绪消退；玻璃生产利润修复，行业冷修速度放缓，开工率、产量下降至 历史同期低位；深加工订单不及往年同期，终端需求偏弱；偏空 2、基差：浮法玻璃河北沙河大板现货1184元/吨，FG2509收盘价为1117元/吨，基差为67元，期货 贴水现货；偏多 3、库存：全国浮法玻璃企业库存5949.90万重量箱，较前一周减少3.87%，库存在5年均值上方运 行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向上；中性 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：政策利好消退，短期预计玻璃震荡运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、"反内卷"政策影响下，浮法玻璃行业存产能出清预期。 利空 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Report Date: August 1, 2025 [2] - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] LLDPE Analysis Fundamental Factors - Macro: In June, the PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, staying in the contraction range for three consecutive months. The Caixin PMI in June was 50.4, 2.1 percentage points higher than in May, returning above the critical point. On July 18, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced a steady - growth plan for key industries including the petrochemical industry [4]. - Supply - Demand: It's the off - season for agricultural films, and the demand for packaging films has slightly improved. Overall, downstream demand is weak. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7350 (-50), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - Basis: The basis of the LLDPE 2509 contract is 0, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.0%, which is neutral [4]. - Inventory: The comprehensive PE inventory is 49.1 million tons (-7.2), which is neutral [4]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is flat, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, showing a bullish trend [4]. - Main Position: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, showing a bearish trend [4]. - Expectation: The LLDPE main contract is oscillating. Driven by the macro steady - growth plan, it's the off - season for agricultural film demand, downstream demand is weak, and industrial inventory is neutral. It is expected that PE will oscillate today [4]. Influential Factors - Bullish: Cost support and macro - policy promotion [6] - Bearish: Weak demand [6] - Main Logic: Cost and demand, driven by domestic macro - policies [6] PP Analysis Fundamental Factors - Macro: Similar to LLDPE, in June, the PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, staying in the contraction range for three consecutive months. The Caixin PMI in June was 50.4, 2.1 percentage points higher than in May, returning above the critical point. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced a steady - growth plan on July 18 [7]. - Supply - Demand: It's the off - season for downstream demand. Affected by high summer temperatures and heavy rainfall, the demand for pipes, plastic weaving, etc., is weak. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 7150 (-0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [7]. - Basis: The basis of the PP 2509 contract is 32, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.4%, which is neutral [7]. - Inventory: The comprehensive PP inventory is 56.5 million tons (-1.6), showing a bearish trend [7]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is flat, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, showing a bullish trend [7]. - Main Position: The net position of the PP main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, showing a bearish trend [7]. - Expectation: The PP main contract is oscillating. Driven by the macro steady - growth plan, downstream demand for pipes and plastic weaving is weak, and industrial inventory is neutral. It is expected that PP will oscillate today [7]. Influential Factors - Bullish: Cost support and macro - policy promotion [8] - Bearish: Weak demand [8] - Main Logic: Cost and demand, driven by domestic macro - policies [8] Market Data LLDPE - Spot: The price of LLDPE spot delivery products is 7350 (-50), the import US dollar price is 835 (0), the import conversion price is 7386 (7), and the import price difference is -36 (-57) [9]. - Futures: The price of the LLDPE 09 contract is 7350 (-37), the basis is 0 (-13), and the prices of other contracts (L01, L05) also have corresponding changes [9]. - Inventory: The number of LLDPE warehouse receipts is 5816 (0), the PE comprehensive factory inventory is 49.1 million tons (-7.2), and the PE social inventory is 56.2 million tons (0.3) [9] PP - Spot: The price of PP spot delivery products is 7150 (0), the import US dollar price is 860 (0), the import conversion price is 7603 (7), and the import price difference is -453 (-7) [9]. - Futures: The price of the PP 09 contract is 7118 (-27), the basis is 32 (27), and the prices of other contracts (PP01, PP05) also have corresponding changes [9]. - Inventory: The number of PP warehouse receipts is 12625 (-70), the PP comprehensive factory inventory is 56.5 million tons (-1.6), and the PP social inventory is 27.3 million tons (-0.1) [9] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets Polyethylene - From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, net import volume, apparent consumption, etc., of polyethylene have shown different trends. For example, the production capacity increased from 1869.5 in 2018 to 3584.5 in 2024, with a growth rate of 12.4% in 2024 compared to the previous year [14]. Polypropylene - From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, net import volume, apparent consumption, etc., of polypropylene have also changed. The production capacity increased from 2245.5 in 2018 to 4418.5 in 2024, with a growth rate of 13.5% in 2024 compared to the previous year [16]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2025年8月1日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2025年6月PVC产量为199.134万吨，环比减少1.40%；本周样本企业产能利 用率为76.79%，环比减少0.01个百分点；电石法企业产量33.834万吨，环比减少0.58%,乙烯法企业产 量11.319万吨，环比减少2.32%；本周供给压力有所减少；下周预计检修有所减少，预计排产少量增加 1、基本面: 中性。 点，低于历史平均水平；下游薄膜开工率为77%，环比增加.33个百分点，高于历史平均水平；下游糊树 脂开工率为76.07%，环比减少0.21个百分点，高于历史平均水平；船运费用看跌；国内PVC出口价格价 格占优；当前需求或持续低迷 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-8-1 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 | | 现货行情 | | | 期货盘面 | | 库 | 存 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 地 区 | 价 格 | 变 化 | 主力合约 | 价 格 | 变 化 | 类 型 | 数 量 | 变 化 | | 现货交割品 | 1750 | -70 | 09合约 | 1714 | -28 | 仓 单 | 3233 | 333 | | 山东现货 | 1750 | -70 | 基 差 | 3 6 | -42 | UR综合库存 | 143 1 . | 0 0 . | | 河南现货 | 1760 | 0 | UR01 | 1736 | -34 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，根据隆众，2025年8月份国内沥青总计划排产量为241.3万吨，环比降幅5.1%, 同比增幅17.1%。本周国内石油沥青样本产能利用率为30.9204%，环比减少3.36个百分 点，全国样本企业出货26.9万吨，环比增加8.03%,样本企业产量为51.6万吨，环比减少 9.79%,样本企业装置检修量预估为64.2万吨，环比增加11.85%,本周炼厂有所减产，降低 供应压力。下周或将增加供给压力。 需求端来看，重交沥青开工率为28.8%，环比减少0.12个百分点，低于历史平均水平；建筑 沥青开工率为18.2%，环比持平，低于历史平均水平；改性沥青开工率为14.4572%，环比减 少0.09个百分点，低于历史平均水平；道路改性沥青开工率为27%，环比增加2.00个百分 点，低于历史平均水平；防水卷材开工率为30%，环比增加2.00个百分点，低于历史平均水 平；总体来看，当前需求低于历史平均水平。 1、基本面: 偏多。 成本端来看，日度加工沥青利润为-547.8元/吨，环比增加7.50%，周度山东地炼延迟焦化 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-08-01 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 1.基本面：美豆震荡回落，美豆产区天气整体良好压制盘面和技术性震荡整理，美豆千点关 口附近震荡等待中美关税谈判后续和美国大豆产区生长天气进一步指引。国内豆粕窄幅 震荡，技术性震荡整理，七月进口大豆到港维持高位和现货价格弱势压制盘面，短期或 回归区间震荡格局。中性 2.基差：现货2870（华东），基差-130，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存104.31万吨，上周99.84万吨，环比增加4.48%，去年同期134.59万吨， 同比减少22.5%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均线上方且方向向上。偏多 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The 25/26 global sugar market is expected to shift from shortage to surplus, but there are differences in institutional forecasts. The 09 contract is approaching delivery, and attention should be paid to the basis regression. The main contract is about to switch to the 01 contract, and support around 5600 for the 01 contract should be monitored [5][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review No relevant information provided. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: StoneX has revised down the global sugar market surplus for the 25/26 season by 700,000 tons to 3.04 million tons. As of the end of May 2025, the cumulative sugar production in China for the 24/25 season was 11.1621 million tons, and the cumulative sugar sales were 8.1138 million tons, with a sales rate of 72.69% (66.17% in the same period last year). In June 2025, China imported 420,000 tons of sugar, a year-on-year increase of 390,000 tons, and the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 115,700 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 103,200 tons. The overall situation is neutral [5]. - **Basis**: The spot price in Liuzhou is 6,100 yuan, with a basis of 445 yuan (for the 01 contract), indicating a premium over the futures price, which is a bullish signal [5]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of May, the industrial inventory for the 24/25 sugar season was 3.0483 million tons, which is bullish [5]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend [5]. - **Main Position**: The net short position is decreasing, but the main position trend is still bearish [5]. - **Expectation**: The 09 contract is approaching delivery, and attention should be paid to the basis regression. The main contract is about to switch to the 01 contract, and support around 5600 for the 01 contract should be monitored [5][8]. 3.3 Today's Focus No relevant information provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Global Sugar Supply and Demand Forecast for 25/26**: Global production is expected to reach 202 million tons, a record - high second, mainly driven by Brazil, India, and Thailand. Global consumption is expected to be 198 million tons, with Asia's demand growing by 1.3% and Africa having the fastest growth rate at 2.2%. There will be a surplus of 2.7 million tons, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio is between 52% - 54%. The global trade volume is expected to be 62 million tons, with Brazil's exports accounting for over 50% and Thailand's exports returning to a high level [35]. - **Institutional Forecasts for 2025/26**: USDA predicts a surplus of 11.397 million tons (doubling year - on - year), Datagro predicts a surplus of 2.58 million tons, ISO predicts a shift from a shortage of 4.88 million tons in 24/25 to a possible surplus in 25/26, and StoneX predicts a global production increase of 3.3 million tons and a surplus of 4.3 million tons [38]. - **China's Sugar Industry Data**: The sugarcane and beet planting and harvesting areas, sugar production, import, consumption, and price data from 2023/24 to 2025/26 are provided, showing relatively stable trends in various indicators [40]. 3.5 Position Data No relevant information provided.

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2025年8月1日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 棉花： 1、基本面：ICAC7月报：25/26年度产量2590万吨，消费2560万吨。USDA7月报：25/26年 度产量2578.3万吨，消费2571.8万吨，期末库存1683.5万吨。海关：6月纺织品服装出口 273.1亿美元，同比下降0.1%。6月份我国棉花进口3万吨，同比减少82.1%；棉纱进口11万 吨，同比增加0.1%。农村部7月25/26年度：产量625万吨，进口140万吨，消费740万吨， 期末库存823万吨。中性。 6：预期：中美贸易谈判继续延后，关税暂时维持现状。郑棉主力即将换月01，近期下跌 09跌 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply increased last week, demand remained weak, and costs in Xinjiang showed reduced support during the wet season. The 2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 9090 - 9480 yuan/ton. The overall fundamental situation is bearish [6]. - For polysilicon, the supply continues to increase, while the demand shows a short - term decline in wafer production but a medium - term recovery expectation. The battery and component production shows a continuous decline. The 2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 53400 - 56010 yuan/ton. The overall fundamental situation is bearish [9][10][11]. - The main bullish factors are cost increase support and manufacturers' plans for production cuts and shutdowns. The main bearish factors are the slow recovery of post - holiday demand and the strong supply and weak demand in the downstream polysilicon market. The main logic is that the supply - demand mismatch leads to a difficult - to - change downward trend [14][15]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Daily Views Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the supply was 78,000 tons, a 1.30% week - on - week increase [6]. - Demand: Last week, the demand was 71,000 tons, a 4.05% week - on - week decrease. The demand remains sluggish [6]. - Cost: In Xinjiang, the production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 2027 yuan/ton, and the cost support weakened during the wet season [6]. - Basis: On July 30, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9750 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was 465 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [6]. - Inventory: The social inventory was 535,000 tons, a 2.19% week - on - week decrease; the sample enterprise inventory was 177,500 tons, a 2.57% week - on - week increase; the main port inventory was 120,000 tons, remaining unchanged week - on - week, which is bearish [6]. - Disk: The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed above the MA20, which is bullish [6]. - Main position: The main position is net short, and the short position increased, which is bearish [6]. - Expectation: The supply scheduling decreases and remains at a low level, the demand recovery is at a low level, and the cost support increases. The industrial silicon 2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 9090 - 9480 yuan/ton [6]. Polysilicon - Supply: Last week, the production was 25,500 tons, a 10.86% week - on - week increase. The scheduled production in July is expected to be 106,800 tons, a 5.74% month - on - month increase [9]. - Demand: The wafer production last week was 11.2 GW, a 0.90% week - on - week increase. The wafer inventory was 178,700 tons, a 11.54% week - on - week increase, and the wafer production is currently at a loss. The scheduled production in July is 52.2 GW, a 11.28% month - on - month decrease. The battery production in June was 56.19 GW, a 6.73% month - on - month decrease. The external sales factory inventory of battery cells last week was 5.33 GW, a 46.37% week - on - week decrease, and the battery production is currently at a loss. The scheduled production in July is 54.52 GW, a 2.97% month - on - month decrease. The component production in June was 46.3 GW, a 10.61% month - on - month decrease. The expected component production in July is 45.45 GW, a 1.83% month - on - month decrease. The domestic monthly inventory is 24.76 GW, a 51.73% month - on - month decrease, and the European monthly inventory is 30.5 GW, a 20.77% month - on - month decrease. The component production is currently profitable [10]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 36,390 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 9,110 yuan/ton [10]. - Basis: On July 30, the price of N - type dense material was 45,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was - 8205 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is bearish [12]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory was 243,000 tons, a 2.40% week - on - week decrease, remaining at a high level in the same period of history, which is neutral [12]. - Disk: The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed above the MA20, which is bullish [12]. - Main position: The main position is net long, and the long position increased, which is bullish [12]. - Expectation: The supply scheduling continues to increase, the demand shows a short - term decline in wafer production but a medium - term recovery expectation, the battery and component production shows a continuous decline. The overall demand shows a recovery but may be weak in the future. The cost support remains stable. The polysilicon 2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 53400 - 56010 yuan/ton [11]. 2. Fundamental/Position Data - Industrial silicon: The report provides detailed data on prices, inventories, production, and cost - profit of different contracts and specifications of industrial silicon, as well as the production, inventory, and cost - profit data of its downstream organic silicon and aluminum alloy industries [18]. - Polysilicon: The report provides detailed data on prices, production, inventory, and cost - profit of polysilicon and its downstream wafers, battery cells, and components [20].

PVC期货早报 2025年7月31日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2025年6月PVC产量为199.134万吨，环比减少1.40%；本周样本企业产能利 用率为76.79%，环比减少0.01个百分点；电石法企业产量33.834万吨，环比减少0.58%,乙烯法企业产 量11.319万吨，环比减少2.32%；本周供给压力有所减少；下周预计检修有所减少，预计排产增加幅度 可观。 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为41.88%，环比增加.77个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游型材开工率 为38%，环比增加.45个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游管材开工率为32.52%，环比减少1.23个百分 点，低于历史平均水平；下 ...