Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The supply side of copper has disturbances, smelting enterprises have production cut actions, and the scrap copper policy has been liberalized. In September, manufacturing production activities accelerated, with the PMI rising to 49.8%, and the business climate continued to improve. The inventory has rebounded, and geopolitical disturbances still exist. The incident at the Grasberg Block Cave mine in Indonesia has fermented, so copper prices are expected to remain strong [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - Fundamentals: The supply side has disturbances, smelting enterprises have production cut actions, and the scrap copper policy has been liberalized. In September, manufacturing production activities accelerated, with the PMI rising to 49.8%, and the business climate continued to improve; neutral [2] - Basis: The spot price is 85,335, the basis is 265, showing a premium over futures; neutral [2] - Inventory: On October 16, copper inventory decreased by 900 to 137,450 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory increased by 14,656 tons from last week to 109,690 tons; neutral [2] - Market trend: The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is moving upward; bullish [2] - Main positions: The main net position is long, but long positions are decreasing; bullish [2] - Expectation: The inventory is rising, geopolitical disturbances still exist, and the incident at the Grasberg Block Cave mine in Indonesia has fermented, so copper prices will remain strong [2] Recent利多利空Analysis -利多: Global policy easing [3] -利空: Trade war escalation [3] Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it will be in a tight balance [20] - The Chinese annual supply - demand balance shows different situations from 2018 - 2024. For example, in 2024, production is 12.06 million tons, imports are 3.73 million tons, exports are 0.46 million tons, apparent consumption is 15.34 million tons, actual consumption is 15.23 million tons, and there is a surplus of 0.11 million tons [22]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of cotton are generally bearish, with expected increases in supply and weak market performance during the "Golden September and Silver October" season. The 01 contract of the main cotton is expected to have a short - term weak rebound. Attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations [4]. - Bullish factors include the reduction of previous mutual tariffs between China and the US and the year - on - year decrease in commercial inventory [5]. - Bearish factors involve ongoing trade negotiations, high export tariffs to the US, a decline in overall foreign trade orders, increased inventory, the upcoming large - scale listing of new cotton, and weak consumption in September [6]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Previous Day's Review No information provided in the report. 2. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: The national cotton output is expected to reach 728 million tons, with Xinjiang hitting a new high. Different reports have different data for the 25/26 annual output, consumption, and inventory. For example, the ICAC9 monthly report shows a production and consumption of 25.5 million tons each; the USDA9 monthly report indicates a production of 25.622 million tons, consumption of 25.872 million tons, and an ending inventory of 15.925 million tons. In September, textile and clothing exports were 24.42 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 1.4%. In August, China imported 70,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of 51.6%, and 130,000 tons of cotton yarn, a year - on - year increase of 18.18%. The Ministry of Agriculture's October 25/26 annual data shows a production of 6.36 million tons, imports of 1.4 million tons, consumption of 7.4 million tons, and an ending inventory of 8.22 million tons. Overall, the fundamentals are bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b is 14,664, and the basis is 1344 (01 contract), with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The Ministry of Agriculture of China estimates the ending inventory in October of the 25/26 annual period to be 8.22 million tons, which is bearish [4]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The position is bearish, the net short position is decreasing, and the main trend is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The "Golden September and Silver October" peak season is about to pass, the market is sluggish, and textile and clothing exports in September are weak. New cotton is about to be listed in large quantities, and the market expects an increase in supply. Pay attention to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations. The main 01 contract will have a short - term weak rebound [4]. 3. Today's Focus No information provided in the report. 4. Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Production and Sales Forecast (September)**: The total global production in the 25/26 annual period is 25.622 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 230,000 tons; the total consumption is 25.872 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 184,000 tons; the ending inventory is 15.925 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 168,000 tons [11][12]. - **Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet (ICAC)**: In the 25/26 annual period, the global production is 2.590 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 40,000 tons (1.6%); the consumption is 2.560 million tons, basically unchanged year - on - year; the ending inventory is 1.710 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 26,000 tons (1.6%); the global trade volume is 970,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 36,000 tons (3.9%); the price forecast (Cotlook A index) is 57 - 94 cents per pound (median 73 cents) [13]. - **China's Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet (Ministry of Agriculture)**: In the 25/26 annual period, the production is 6.36 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.22 million tons. The domestic average price of cotton 3128B is expected to be between 14,000 - 16,000 yuan per ton, and the Cotlook A index is expected to be between 75 - 100 cents per pound [15]. 5. Position Data No information provided in the report.

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-10-16原油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 原油2511： 1.基本面：美国高级官员周三抨击中国大幅扩大稀土出口管制对全球供应链构成威胁，但表示中国政 府仍有可能改变立场，避免华盛顿采取措施与中国脱钩；美国总统特朗普表示，印度总理莫迪已承诺 停止从俄罗斯购买石油，特朗普并称，下一步他将努力让中国也采取同样的行动；IEA月报显示，随着 大量原油运输船驶向全球主要的石油交易和储存中心，全球石油库存即将回升，石油市场面临的供应 过剩局面将比先前预期更为严峻；中性 2.基差：10月15日，阿曼原油现货价为63.16/桶，卡塔尔海洋原油现货价为62.15元/桶，基差28.9 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The domestic pig market is expected to see a double reduction in supply and demand this week. Pig prices are likely to be weak in the short - term, and may bottom - out and rebound to maintain a volatile pattern in the medium - term. The LH2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,000 - 12,400 [10]. - China's additional tariffs on pork imports from the US and Canada boost market confidence. After the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, the market shows a double - reduction in supply and demand, with short - term weak spot prices and a medium - term range - bound pattern [12]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The supply of pigs and pork is expected to decrease this week. The overall consumer willingness of residents has weakened after the long holiday, suppressing short - term fresh pork consumption. The market may experience a double reduction in supply and demand, and pig prices are expected to be weak in the short - term and may bottom - out and rebound in the medium - term. Attention should be paid to the changes in the monthly group - farm slaughter rhythm and the dynamics of the secondary fattening market [10]. 2. Recent News - China's additional tariffs on US and Canadian pork imports boost market confidence. After the festivals, the market has a double - reduction in supply and demand, with short - term weak spot prices and a medium - term range - bound pattern [12]. - Pork demand has weakened in the short - term after the festivals, but the spot price has returned to a volatile state due to reduced supply. The continued decline space may be limited, and it may show a bottom - out and rebound trend [12]. - The loss of domestic pig farming profits has recently expanded, reducing the short - term enthusiasm for large - pig slaughter. The double - reduction in supply and demand supports the short - term expectations of pig futures and spot prices [12]. - The pig spot price has remained stable after the National Day, and the futures have generally returned to a medium - term range - bound pattern. Further observation of supply and demand growth is needed [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish Factors**: The domestic pig supply has entered the off - season after the long holiday, and the continued decline space of domestic pig spot prices may be limited [13]. - **Bearish Factors**: The domestic macro - environment has a pessimistic expectation due to the Sino - US tariff war, and the domestic pig inventory has increased year - on - year [13]. - **Main Logic**: The market focuses on pig slaughter and fresh - meat demand [13]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply**: After the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, large - scale farms in China have started to reduce slaughter, and it is expected that the supply of pigs and meat will decrease this week. As of June 30, the pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.4% and a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. As of the end of June, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.42 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.02% and a year - on - year increase of 4.2% [10]. - **Demand**: The domestic macro - environment expectation has improved, but after the long holiday, the overall consumer willingness of residents has weakened, suppressing short - term fresh pork consumption [10]. - **Price**: The national average spot price is 10,970 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 2601 contract is 1,225 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. The price is below the 20 - day moving average and the direction is downward [10]. 5. Position Data - The net position of the main players is short, and the short positions are increasing [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand imbalance with strong supply and weak demand in the lithium carbonate market is difficult to change due to capacity mismatch [12]. - In the future, it is expected that supply will increase in the next month, demand will strengthen, and inventory may decrease. The 2601 contract of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate in the range of 71,820 - 73,620 [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: Last week, the lithium carbonate output was 20,635 tons, a 0.58% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average [8]. - **Demand**: The inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises last week was 101,848 tons, a 3.62% week - on - week increase, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 17,849 tons, a 0.26% week - on - week decrease [8]. - **Cost**: The cost of purchased spodumene concentrate is 73,330 yuan/ton, a 0.02% daily decrease; the cost of purchased lepidolite is 75,178 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged daily. The recycling end has a lower production enthusiasm, while the salt lake end has a sufficient profit - making space and strong production motivation [9]. - **Basis**: On October 15, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,000 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract basis was 60 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium [9]. - **Inventory**: The smelter inventory was 34,747 tons, a 3.75% week - on - week increase, lower than the historical average; the downstream inventory was 59,765 tons, a 1.85% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average; the overall inventory was 134,801 tons, a 1.47% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average [9]. - **Market**: The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below the MA20 [9]. - **Main Positions**: The main positions are net short, and short positions are increasing [9]. - **Likely Factors**: Positive factors include manufacturers' production suspension and reduction plans, a decrease in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile, and a decline in the import volume of spodumene. Negative factors include continuous high supply at the ore/salt lake end with limited decline and insufficient willingness of the power battery end to receive goods [10][11]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Market Overview**: The prices of lithium ore, lithium salts, cathode materials, and lithium batteries are provided, including their current values, previous values, changes, and change rates. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 5.98% [15]. - **Supply - Demand Data**: Information on weekly and monthly operating rates, production costs, production profits, production volumes, export and import volumes, and supply - demand balances of lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and related products is presented [18][19]. - **Price and Inventory Trends**: The report shows the price trends of lithium carbonate, lithium ore, and related products, as well as the inventory trends of lithium carbonate in different periods and from different sources [21][25][31]. - **Cost - Profit Analysis**: The cost - profit situations of various lithium compounds, such as purchased spodumene concentrate, lepidolite, and recycled materials, are analyzed [45][47][50]. - **Inventory Analysis**: The inventory trends of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, including smelter inventory, downstream inventory, and total inventory, are presented [52]. - **Demand Analysis**: The report provides information on the demand for lithium batteries, including battery prices, production volumes, shipments, and exports, as well as the demand for ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate/lithium iron phosphate, and new energy vehicles [56][61][71][79].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **豆粕 (M2601)**: Expected to oscillate between 2900 and 2960. The US soybean market is waiting for new guidance from China - US trade negotiations and harvest weather. In China, low - price buying and technical adjustments support the market, but high imports and spot price discounts limit the upside. Overall, it will likely maintain a short - term oscillatory pattern [9]. - **大豆 (A2601)**: Forecasted to fluctuate between 3960 and 4060. The US soybean market has similar uncertainties as above. In China, the cost - advantage of domestic soybeans over imports supports prices, but high imports and expected domestic soybean production growth suppress the market. It will be affected by China - US trade and import volumes in the short term [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - **豆粕**: Oscillates weakly in the futures market, with relatively stable spot prices and a slightly narrowing spot discount. The oil mill's soybean processing volume has declined from a high level, and the August bean meal production increased year - on - year. Downstream procurement has slightly decreased, while提货量 remains high. The spread between bean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuates slightly [23][25][27]. - **大豆**: The cost of imported soybeans supports the domestic market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand is positive. However, Brazilian soybean production and expected domestic soybean yield growth are negative factors [11]. 3.2 Recent News - China - US tariff negotiations are at a stalemate, which is short - term negative for US soybeans. The US soybean market is oscillating above the 1000 - point mark, waiting for further guidance on harvest, imports, and trade negotiations. - China's imported soybean arrivals remain high in October. The oil mill's bean meal inventory has declined from a high level in October. The demand for bean meal has weakened in October due to reduced pig - farming profits, but the market is still oscillating due to trade uncertainties [13]. 3.3 Multi - Empty Concerns - **豆粕**: Positive factors include slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory pressure in domestic oil mills, and uncertain US soybean weather. Negative factors are high October arrivals of imported soybeans and expected US soybean harvest and high yields. The main focus is on US soybean harvest weather and China - US trade tariff games [14]. - **大豆**: Positive factors are the cost support of imported soybeans and expected increased domestic demand. Negative factors are Brazilian soybean production and expected domestic soybean yield growth. The main focus is on US soybean weather and China - US trade tariff games [15]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance**: Data from 2015 - 2024 shows changes in harvest area, production, consumption, and inventory, with the inventory - consumption ratio fluctuating [32]. - **Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance**: Data from 2015 - 2024 shows changes in harvest area, production, imports, consumption, and inventory, with the inventory - consumption ratio also fluctuating [33]. - **Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress**: Information on the planting and harvest progress of soybeans in the US, Brazil, and Argentina from 2023 - 2025 is provided, including percentages at different time points [34][35][38]. - **USDA Supply - Demand Reports**: Data from March - September 2025 shows changes in planting area, yield, production, end - of - period inventory, exports, and crushing volume of US soybeans, as well as Brazilian and Argentine soybean production [43]. 3.5 Position Data - **豆粕**: The main short positions have increased, and funds have flowed out, indicating a bearish sentiment [9]. - **大豆**: The main short positions have decreased, and funds have flowed in, but overall, the market has a bearish bias [11].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - International oil prices closed lower, with the International Energy Agency warning of a supply glut next year and ongoing Sino - US trade tensions, causing fuel oil to continue to be under pressure and oscillate at a low level. The spot fundamentals have relatively sufficient supply, and shipping demand is uncertain under the background of the Sino - US trade war, failing to provide upward momentum. - It is expected that FU2601 will operate in the range of 2680 - 2720, and LU2512 will operate in the range of 3150 - 3200 [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - The Asian region may maintain sufficient supply in November due to high existing inventories and a continuous and stable inflow of high - sulfur goods from Russia. The recovery of high - sulfur fuel oil refining margins has curbed refinery raw material demand. The premium of Singapore's low - sulfur fuel oil terminal delivery term contracts declined in October due to sufficient inventory and insufficient demand. - The basis of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is 24 yuan/ton, and that of low - sulfur fuel oil is 8 yuan/ton, with the spot at par with the futures. - Singapore's fuel oil inventory in the week of October 8 was 20.619 million barrels, a decrease of 1.64 million barrels. - The price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. - High - sulfur main positions are short, with short positions increasing; low - sulfur main positions are long, with long positions increasing [3]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - Term Concerns - **Likely Positive Factors**: None mentioned. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The optimism on the demand side remains to be verified; sanctions against Russia may be intensified; Russia's fuel oil export restrictions may be extended. - **Market Drivers**: Supply is affected by geopolitical risks, and demand is neutral [4]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The previous value of the FU main contract futures price was 2714, and the current value is 2669, a decrease of 45 or 1.66%. The previous value of the LU main contract futures price was 3216, and the current value is 3158, a decrease of 58 or 1.80%. The previous value of the FU basis was - 22, and the current value is 24, an increase of 46 or 206.75%. The previous value of the LU basis was - 8, and the current value is 8, an increase of 16 or 200.51% [5]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of Zhoushan high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils remained unchanged. The price of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil increased from 363.05 to 367.61 dollars/ton, an increase of 4.56 dollars/ton or 1.26%. The price of Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil decreased from 435.50 to 431.60 dollars/ton, a decrease of 3.90 dollars/ton or 0.90%. The price of Middle - East high - sulfur fuel oil increased from 339.50 to 344.12 dollars/ton, an increase of 4.62 dollars/ton or 1.36%. The price of Singapore diesel decreased from 630.10 to 620.96 dollars/ton, a decrease of 9.13 dollars/ton or 1.45% [6]. 3.4 Inventory Data - Singapore's fuel oil inventory on October 8 was 20.619 million barrels, a decrease of 1.64 million barrels compared to the previous period. The inventory has shown fluctuations in recent months, with an increase in some weeks and a decrease in others [3][8].

菜粕早报 2025-10-16 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸菜粕观点和策略 菜粕RM2601：2340至2400区间震荡 1.基本面：菜粕震荡回升，豆粕带动和技术性震荡整理，市场回归震荡等待加拿大油菜籽进 口反倾销裁定尚待最终结果。菜粕现货需求短期维持旺季，库存维持低位支撑盘面，但 国庆后菜粕需求逐渐进入淡季和中加贸易磋商仍变数，盘面短期缺乏指引影响维持震荡。 中性 2.基差：现货2480，基差123，升水期货。偏多 3.库存：菜粕库存1.75万吨，上周1.8万吨，周环比减少2.78%，去年同期2.2万吨，同比减 少20.45%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均线下方且方向向下 ...

2 基本面/持仓数据 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2025年10月16日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 每日观点——工业硅 | | | | | 供给端来看 ， | 上周工业硅供应量为9 | | 7万吨 . | ， | 环比有所增加4 . | 30% 。 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 需求端来看 ， | 上周工业硅需求为8 | . | 2万吨 | 环比减少4 ， | 65% . . | 需求持续低迷 | . | | | | | | | | 多晶硅库存为24万吨 | ， | 处于高位 ， | ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年10月16日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 1、基本面：关税担忧升温，美国政府继续关门，金价继续刷新历史最高；美国三大 股指收盘涨跌不一，欧洲三大股指收盘涨跌不一；美债收益率涨跌不一，10年期美 债收益率涨0.37个基点报4.032%；美元指数跌0.39%报98.67，离岸人民币对美元小 幅升值报7.1301；COMEX黄金期货涨1.48%报4224.90美元/盎司；偏多 2、基差：黄金期货960.34，现货957.3，基差-3.04，现货贴水期货；中性 3、库存：黄金期货仓单75099千克，增加2916千克；偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向上，k线在 ...