Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For PTA, last week the supply of PTA plants returned, and the downstream polyester load increased slightly. The supply - demand pattern of PTA weakened month - on - month. The activity of traders in the spot market decreased before the New Year's Day holiday, but some major suppliers were more active in shipping. The spot basis was strong. It is expected that the short - term PTA spot price will fluctuate following the cost side, and the spot basis will fluctuate in a range. Attention should be paid to oil price fluctuations and changes in upstream and downstream plants [5]. - For MEG, recently, affected by gale weather, some ships were delayed. It is expected that the port inventory will remain stable or slightly decrease at the beginning of this week. The polyester load has been running at around 90.8%, but the industrial chain transmission is poor, and the terminal load has still decreased locally. The demand - side support is general. MEG has seasonal inventory accumulation pressure in the near - month, and the overall intention of holding goods in the market is weak. It is expected that the price center of MEG will be sorted in a low range recently. Attention should be paid to oil prices and plant changes [7]. Summary by Directory 1.前日回顾 - Not provided in the content 2.每日提示 - **PTA Daily View** - Fundamental analysis on Wednesday: spot negotiation was scarce, January contracts were negotiated at a discount of 40 - 50 to the 05 contract, with a price negotiation range of 5060 - 5130, and the mainstream spot basis was 05 - 46 (neutral). The spot price was 5097, the 05 contract basis was - 13, and the futures price was at a premium (neutral). PTA factory inventory was 3.61 days, a decrease of 0.15 days month - on - month (bullish). The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the closing price was above the 20 - day moving average (bullish). The net long position of the main contract decreased (bullish) [5][6]. - **MEG Daily View** - Fundamental analysis on Wednesday: the price center of ethylene glycol weakened, and market negotiation was average. At night, the price of ethylene glycol fluctuated and sorted, with little negotiation in the market. During the day, the ethylene glycol futures price fluctuated downward, negotiation was stalemate in the morning, and buying interest picked up in the afternoon. The basis of next - week's spot strengthened to a discount of about 126 yuan/ton to the 05 contract, and there was little negotiation on this week's spot, with some low - level transactions at a discount of 155 - 156 yuan/ton to the 05 contract. The spot price was 3678, the 05 contract basis was - 125, and the futures price was at a premium (bearish). The total inventory in East China was 66.35 tons, an increase of 0.57 tons month - on - month (bearish). The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the closing price was above the 20 - day moving average (bearish). The net short position of the main contract increased (bearish). Recently affected by gale weather, some ships were delayed. It is expected that the port inventory will remain stable or slightly decrease at the beginning of this week. The polyester load has been running at around 90.8%, but the industrial chain transmission is poor, and the terminal load has still decreased locally. The demand - side support is general. MEG has seasonal inventory accumulation pressure in the near - month, and the overall intention of holding goods in the market is weak. It is expected that the price center of MEG will be sorted in a low range recently [7]. 3.今日关注 - **Influential Factors Summary** - Bullish factors: a 500,000 - ton/year ethylene glycol plant in Zhejiang has been shut down for maintenance as planned recently and is expected to restart around the end of January. Ineos' 1.1 - million - ton and Yisheng Ningbo's 2.2 - million - ton plants restarted [8]. - Bearish factors: Dushan Energy's 2.5 - million - ton plant restarted, Zhongtai's 1.2 - million - ton plant operated at a low load after restarting, and Weilian Chemical's 2.5 - million - ton plant increased its load [9]. - Current main logic and risk points: the short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and attention should be paid to the upper resistance level when the futures price rebounds [9]. 4.基本面数据 - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: shows the supply and demand data of PTA from January 2024 to December 2025, including PTA production capacity, load, output, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and inventory [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: shows the supply and demand data of ethylene glycol from January 2024 to December 2025, including production, import, total supply, polyester consumption, and port inventory [11]. - **Price Data**: includes the price changes of various products such as naphtha, p - xylene, PTA, MEG, polyester fibers on December 31, 2025, compared with December 30, 2025, as well as the basis and profit data [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The over - supply situation in the aluminum industry is difficult to change in 2026, and policies and the mine end are the key variables [58] - The main theme of supply and demand in 2026 is still surplus, and the expected price driver mainly depends on changes in the mines. If prices remain low for a long time, attention should be paid to new changes in anti - involution policies. Overall, prices will fluctuate around the cost - end, with short - term news causing only minor disturbances, and are expected to operate in the range of 2400 - 3000 yuan/ton [58] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Pre - review - The short - term rise in aluminum prices was due to the National Development and Reform Commission's article encouraging large - scale alumina and copper smelting enterprises to implement mergers and acquisitions to improve scale and group levels [5] 3.2 Macroeconomic Aspect No information related to the macro - economic aspect is provided in the report. 3.3 Fundamental Aspect 3.3.1 Bauxite - In 2026, bauxite production is expected to increase by 1500 - 2200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3 - 4%. The main incremental source is the commissioning of Nimba (formerly GAC), with an expected annual capacity of 1400 tons. However, this may not be enough to make up for the reduction in production at the AXIS mine in 2025 [13][58] - Ore prices may face a situation of decreasing supply and increasing demand, with limited downward space. If the commissioning of Nimba is less than expected, the ore may return to a tight supply situation in the first quarter of 2026 [58] 3.3.2 Alumina - In 2025 - 2026, domestic alumina new production capacity is expected to increase by 1390 tons, and overseas production capacity is expected to increase by 330 tons. The overall smelting capacity will be sufficient [20] - The cost on December 29 was 2800 yuan, with a loss of 140 yuan [52] 3.3.3 Electrolytic Aluminum - The cost of electrolytic aluminum is 16,150 yuan/ton, and the profit is close to 6,000 yuan [28] 3.3.4 Aluminum Demand - In the first 10 months of 2025, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing decreased by 6.8% year - on - year, the new construction area decreased by 19.8% year - on - year, and the investment amount decreased by 14.7% year - on - year. It is difficult to expect good performance in 2026 [40] - In the first 10 months of 2025, air - conditioner production increased by 3% year - on - year, with a production volume of 230.34 million units, and the growth rate slowed down. In 2026, domestic home appliance sales growth is limited, and there are challenges in overseas markets [42] - In the first 10 months of 2025, the cumulative automobile production was 27.69 million units, a year - on - year increase of 13.2%. In 2026, traditional automobile consumption will face greater pressure, and the growth rate of new energy vehicles may also slow down [44] 3.4 Market Structure - In terms of capital, the long - position increased by 6,559, and the net long - position was 651,203; the short - position decreased by 9,890, and the net short - position was 387,635. The net position was 31,545, and the long - short difference was 112,305 [56] 3.5 Outlook - The supply side: The industry continues to face losses, and supply pressure remains. Ore prices have strong support due to decreasing supply and increasing demand, and domestic alumina smelting capacity is expected to increase by 1000 tons next year [58] - The demand side: The marginal support on the demand side is limited. Although the current capacity utilization rate of electrolytic aluminum has reached 98% and provides rigid support for alumina demand in the short term, there is limited room for further growth in demand due to the production capacity ceiling [58] - Market forecast: The supply - demand situation in 2026 is still in surplus, and prices will mainly operate in the range of 2400 - 3000 yuan/ton [58]

Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - Under the interweaving of long and short factors, it is expected that domestic methanol will maintain a bottom - range oscillation this week. The inland methanol downstream has high raw material inventories and mainly conducts rigid - demand procurement. The upstream has few overhauls and maintains a low - inventory norm before the festival. There is no incremental demand in the northwest, and factories still focus on sales. The current prices in the production and sales areas are at the bottom, and traders are cautious about short - selling. It is expected that the inland market will remain in a stalemate this week. In the port area, there are positive policy expectations across the year at the macro level, and the bottom - support from the reduction of overseas arrivals in the fundamental aspect is solid. However, at present, prices lack driving forces and are in a dilemma in terms of trends. It is expected that the port market will oscillate within a range this week. Pay attention to the macro trend and the actual de - stocking node in the ports. It is expected that methanol prices will oscillate weakly this week, with MA2605 operating in the range of 2120 - 2180 [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - The fundamentals of methanol 2605 are neutral. The basis shows that the spot in Jiangsu is at a premium to the futures, which is bullish. The inventory shows a significant increase in the social inventory of methanol in the East and South China ports, and an increase in the available circulating supply in the coastal areas, which is bearish. The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is below the moving average, which is bearish. The main positions are net short, and the short positions are decreasing, which is bearish. It is expected that the methanol price will oscillate weakly this week, with MA2605 operating in the range of 2120 - 2180 [5]. 2. Long and Short Concerns Bullish Factors - Some devices have stopped production, such as Yulin Kaiyue and Xinjiang Xinyao. The methanol production in Iran has decreased, and the port inventory is at a low level. A 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Jingmen has produced products on May 16th, and a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong is planned to be put into production in the second half of this month. CTO factories in the northwest are purchasing methanol externally [6]. Bearish Factors - Some previously shut - down devices have resumed production, such as Inner Mongolia Donghua. There are expected to be concentrated arrivals at the ports in the second half of the month. Formaldehyde has entered the traditional off - season, and the MTBE operating rate has dropped significantly. Coal - based methanol has a certain profit margin and is currently actively selling. Some factories in the production areas have accumulated inventory due to continuous poor sales [7]. 3. Fundamental Data Price Data - In the spot market, the price of steam - coal in the Bohai Rim is 695 yuan/ton (unchanged), the CFR price at the main port in China is 251 US dollars/ton (up 3 US dollars/ton), the import cost is 2192 yuan/ton (up 24 yuan/ton), etc. In the futures market, the futures closing price is 2161 yuan/ton (unchanged), the number of registered warrants is 6648 (down 100), etc. The basis is - 11 yuan/ton (up 15 yuan/ton), and the import price difference is 31 yuan/ton (up 24 yuan/ton) [8]. - The domestic methanol spot prices in different regions have different trends. The price in Jiangsu has increased by 0.84% to 2150 yuan/ton, the price in Shandong has remained unchanged at 2310 yuan/ton, the price in Hebei has remained unchanged at 2095 yuan/ton, the price in Inner Mongolia has decreased by 5.51% to 1800 yuan/ton, and the price in Fujian has increased by 0.94% to 2155 yuan/ton [9]. Operating Rate Data - The national weighted average operating rate is 74.90%, down 3.81% from last week. The operating rates in different regions have also decreased to varying degrees, such as 81.54% in the northwest (down 3.55%), 68.71% in Shandong (down 2.39%), etc. [8]. Inventory Data - As of December 25, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in the East and South China ports is 113.16 million tons, a significant increase of 11.32 million tons from the previous period. The available circulating supply of methanol in the coastal areas (Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and South China) has increased by 3.93 million tons to 63.44 million tons [5]. Profit Data - The profits of different methanol production processes vary. The profit of coal - based methanol is - 73 yuan/ton, the profit of natural - gas - based methanol is - 40 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the profit of coke - oven - gas - based methanol is 294 yuan/ton (up 32 yuan/ton) [21]. Downstream Product Data - The prices of traditional downstream products of methanol have different trends. The price of formaldehyde has remained unchanged at 1070 yuan/ton, the price of dimethyl ether has remained unchanged at 3850 yuan/ton, and the price of acetic acid has increased by 0.74% to 2720 yuan/ton [32]. - The production profits and operating rates of downstream products also vary. For example, the production profit of formaldehyde is - 122 yuan/ton (unchanged), the operating rate is 30.98% (up 0.01%); the production profit of dimethyl ether is 575 yuan/ton (unchanged), the operating rate is 9.79% (up 1.45%); the production profit of acetic acid is 338 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton), the operating rate is 72.32% (down 1.29%); the production profit of MTO is - 880 yuan/ton (down 58 yuan/ton), the operating rate is 84.18% (down 2.27%) [37][40][45][50]. 4. Overhaul Conditions Domestic Device Overhaul - Many domestic methanol production enterprises are in the process of overhaul or have overhaul plans, involving different regions such as the northwest, east, southwest, and northeast. For example, Shaanxi Black Cat's 100,000 - ton/year coke - oven - gas - based methanol device has been shut down for overhaul since November 2024, and Qinghai Zhonghao's 600,000 - ton/year natural - gas - based methanol device has been shut down for overhaul from October 23, 2024, to the end of March 2025 [60]. Overseas Device Operation - Overseas methanol production devices also have different operating conditions. Some Iranian devices are in the process of resuming production, such as ZPC, which is rumored to have resumed one set (to be verified). Some devices in other countries are operating normally, such as Ar - Razi in Saudi Arabia and Petronas in Malaysia [61]. Olefin Device Operation - The operating conditions of domestic olefin devices vary. Some devices are in normal operation, such as Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy's 700,000 - ton/year olefin device, which stopped for overhaul on March 15, 2025, and is expected to last for 45 days. Some devices are operating stably, such as Yan'an Energy and Chemical's 600,000 - ton/year olefin device [62].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-12-30原油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 原油2602： 1.基本面：俄罗斯周一指控乌克兰试图袭击总统普京位于俄罗斯北部的官邸，但未提供任何证据。基 辅方面驳斥这一说法毫无根据，称其意在破坏和平谈判；一名业内人士表示，哈萨克斯坦12月石油产 量下降约6%，主要由于由雪佛龙公司主导的巨型Tengiz油田产量下降，此前乌克兰一次无人机袭击损 坏了俄罗斯的黑海出口终端；美国总统特朗普表示，他担忧伊朗正在试图重建其核能力并加强弹道导 弹计划，他威胁将再次打击伊朗，以阻止德黑兰储存武器；中性 2.基差：12月29日，阿曼原油现货价为61.72美元/桶，卡塔尔海洋原油现货价 ...

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The Asian fuel oil market structure will remain near the current level. The market supply is sufficient recently, and the market demand has slowed down due to the holidays. With the increasing geopolitical risks, it provides short - term support for prices. It is expected that fuel oil will fluctuate. The FU2603 will operate in the range of 2450 - 2500, and the LU2603 will operate in the range of 2980 - 3030 [3] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - The fundamentals show that the Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market will face resistance in 2026 due to poor demand and supply surplus. The high - sulfur fuel oil market will fluctuate within a certain range with relatively weak downstream demand. The basis indicates that spot is at a discount to futures. The inventory in Singapore increased by 140,000 barrels to 22.559 million barrels in the week of December 17. The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is flat. High - sulfur main positions are short and increasing, while low - sulfur main positions are long and increasing. [3] - The previous day's FU and LU futures prices were 2503 and 3023 respectively, and the current values are 2473 and 2984, down 1.20% and 1.29% respectively. The previous day's FU and LU basis were - 1 and 19 respectively, and the current values are - 15 and - 13, down 955.70% and 168.82% respectively [5] - The previous day's prices of Zhoushan high - sulfur, Zhoushan low - sulfur, Singapore high - sulfur, Singapore low - sulfur, Middle East high - sulfur fuel oil and Singapore diesel were 433.00, 460.00, 343.44, 421.50, 317.01 and 588.05 respectively. The current values are 430.00, 455.00, 337.24, 411.08, 311.06 and 584.21 respectively, with decreases ranging from 0.65% to 2.47% [6] 3.2 Long and Short Concerns - Bullish factors: Russia's fuel export restrictions; cancellation of US - Russia talks and sanctions on Russian oil - related enterprises [4] - Bearish factors: The optimism of the demand side remains to be verified; the upstream crude oil is under pressure [4] - Market drivers: The supply side is affected by geopolitical risks, and the demand is neutral [4] 3.3 Fundamental Data - The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market has been troubled by oversupply in 2025, and similar inflows are expected to increase inventory in 2026. The high - sulfur fuel oil market will fluctuate within a certain range, and the downstream demand is relatively weak [3] 3.4 Spread Data - The report presents the price differences between high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuels, but specific data analysis is not provided in the text [11] 3.5 Inventory Data - Singapore fuel oil inventory data from October 8 to December 17 shows fluctuations. The inventory on December 17 was 22.559 million barrels, an increase of 140,000 barrels from the previous week [8]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 碳酸锂期货早报 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 2025年12月30日 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，上周碳酸锂产量为22161吨，环比增长0.52%,高于历史同期平均水平。 需求端来看，上周磷酸铁锂样本企业库存为100885吨，环比减少1.35%,上周三元材料样本企业库存为 18002吨，环比减少0.49%。 供给端，2025年11月碳酸锂产量为95350实物吨，预测下月产量为98210实物吨，环比增加3.00%,2025 年11月碳酸锂进口量为22055实物吨，预测下月进口量为27000实物吨，环比增加22.42%。需求端，预计 下月需求有所强化，库存或将有所去化。成本端，6%精矿CIF价格日度环比有所增长，低于历史同期平均 水平，需求 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint - The rapeseed meal RM2605 is expected to oscillate in the range of 2340 - 2400. It is affected by factors such as the soybean meal trend, technical consolidation, and the pending final result of the anti-dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. With the spot demand in the off - season and low inventory, it will maintain a short - term oscillating pattern [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt No information provided. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday, with short - term supply tightening and decreasing demand suppressing the market. Canadian rapeseed is in the harvest phase, but Sino - Canadian trade issues have reduced short - term exports and domestic supply expectations [11]. - China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports was established, and a 75.8% import deposit was imposed. The final ruling is still uncertain, depending on the development of Sino - Canadian trade relations [11]. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, with Canada's output higher than expected. The impact of the Russia - Ukraine conflict on global rapeseed production is relatively offset, and geopolitical conflicts may support commodity prices [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination and imposition of import deposits on Canadian rapeseed; oil mills have no pressure on rapeseed meal inventory [12]. - Bearish factors: Domestic rapeseed meal demand has entered the off - season; the final result of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still uncertain, with a small probability of reconciliation [12]. - Current main logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Price and Spread**: The rapeseed meal futures have rebounded, and the spot price has fluctuated accordingly, with a relatively high premium. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has fluctuated slightly, and the price difference of the 2605 contract has remained low [18][20]. - **Supply - related**: Imported rapeseed arrivals increased slightly in December, and the import cost was affected by tariff expectations. Oil mill rapeseed inventory and rapeseed meal inventory remained low, and the rapeseed crushing volume remained zero [23][25][27]. - **Demand - related**: Aquaculture fish prices fluctuated slightly, and shrimp and shellfish prices remained stable [35]. 3.5 Position Data No information provided. 3.6 Rapeseed Meal Viewpoint and Strategy - **Fundamental Analysis**: The rapeseed meal market has returned to oscillation, waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. Spot demand is in the off - season, and low inventory supports the market. It is affected by soybean meal in the short term and maintains an oscillating pattern [9]. - **Basis Analysis**: The spot price is 2560, and the basis is 173, indicating a premium over the futures, which is bullish [9]. - **Inventory Analysis**: Rapeseed meal inventory is 0 tons, unchanged from last week and down 100% year - on - year, which is bullish [9]. - **Price Trend Analysis**: The price is above the 20 - day moving average and moving upward, which is bullish [9]. - **Position Analysis**: The main long positions have increased, and funds have flowed in, which is bullish [9]. - **Outlook**: Affected by the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed and the off - season of domestic supply and demand, it will maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply side production schedule has decreased but remains at a high level, demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support has increased. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8615 - 8815 [3][4]. - For polysilicon, the supply - side production schedule will decrease in the short - term and is expected to recover in the medium - term. The demand side shows continuous decline in silicon wafer, cell, and module production, with overall demand in continuous recession and cost support remaining stable. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 55320 - 57680 [7][8]. - The main logic for the market is capacity clearance, cost support, and demand increment. The main bullish factors are cost increase support and manufacturers' shutdown and production reduction plans, while the main bearish factors are slow post - holiday demand recovery and strong supply but weak demand in downstream polysilicon [11][12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the supply was 87,000 tons, a 1.13% decrease compared to the previous week [3]. - Demand: Last week, the demand was 77,000 tons, a 4.93% decrease compared to the previous week, and demand remains sluggish [3]. - Inventory: Polysilicon inventory is 303,000 tons (high), organic silicon inventory is 43,900 tons (low), and aluminum alloy ingot inventory is 71,000 tons (high). Social inventory is 555,000 tons (a 0.36% increase), sample enterprise inventory is 195,600 tons (a 1.61% increase), and major port inventory is 140,000 tons (a 1.45% increase) [3]. - Cost: In Xinjiang, the production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 2874 yuan/ton, and cost support has increased during the dry season [3]. - Basis: On December 29, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 485 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [3]. - Market: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed above MA20 [3]. - Main positions: The main positions are net short, and short positions have decreased [3]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - Supply: Last week, the production was 25,300 tons, a 1.20% increase compared to the previous week. The production schedule for December is expected to be 113,500 tons, a 0.95% decrease compared to the previous month [7]. - Demand: Last week, silicon wafer production was 10.33GW (a 3.18% decrease), and inventory was 216,900 tons (a 0.88% increase). Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. In December, the production schedule for silicon wafers is 45.7GW (a 15.94% decrease compared to the previous month); in November, cell production was 55.61GW (a 6.17% decrease), and last week, the inventory of cell external sales factories was 8.63GW (a 14.21% decrease). Currently, cell production is in a loss state. In December, the production schedule for cells is 48.72GW (a 12.38% decrease); in November, module production was 46.9GW (a 2.49% decrease), and in December, the expected module production is 39.99GW (a 14.73% decrease). Currently, module production is profitable [7]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 38,600 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 12,400 yuan/ton [7]. - Basis: On December 29, the price of N - type dense material was 51,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was - 4100 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [7]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory is 303,000 tons, a 3.41% increase compared to the previous week, and it is at a high level compared to the same period in history [7]. - Market: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed below MA20 [7]. - Main positions: The main positions are net short, and short positions have decreased [7]. 3.2 Market Overview 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon - Futures closing prices: All contracts showed a decline, with the decline rate ranging from 0.99% to 2.30% [15]. - Basis: The basis of most contracts increased, with the increase rate ranging from 16.67% to 138.48% [15]. - Some contract spreads: The spread between the near - month and the next - month contract decreased by 16.67%, and the spread between the next - month and the second - next - month contract increased by 20.00% [15]. - Warehouse receipts: The number of registered warehouse receipts was 9907, a 5.09% increase compared to the previous period [15]. - Organic silicon: The weekly DMC production was 43,100 tons, a 6.10% decrease compared to the previous week. The daily capacity utilization rate remained unchanged at 65.53%. The daily DMC price remained unchanged at 13,600 yuan/ton. The monthly DMC inventory was 43,900 tons, a 22.02% decrease compared to the previous month [15]. - Aluminum alloy: The daily SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price was 22,400 yuan/ton, a 1.82% increase compared to the previous day. The daily import ADC12 actual immediate profit was 323 yuan/ton, a 5.21% increase compared to the previous day [15]. - Spot prices: The spot prices of various types of silicon in East China remained unchanged [15]. - Inventory: The weekly social inventory was 555,000 tons, a 0.36% increase compared to the previous week. The weekly sample enterprise inventory was 195,600 tons, a 1.61% increase compared to the previous week. The weekly major port inventory was 140,000 tons, a 1.45% increase compared to the previous week [15]. - Production/operating rate: The weekly production of sample enterprises was 45,700 tons, a 0.02% decrease compared to the previous week. The weekly operating rates of enterprises in Xinjiang increased by 0.58%, while those in Yunnan decreased by 9.21% [15]. - Cost - profit: The cost and profit of various types of silicon in different regions remained unchanged [15]. 3.2.2 Polysilicon - Futures closing prices: All contracts showed a decline, with the decline rate ranging from 1.89% to 5.63% [17]. - Basis: The basis of most contracts increased, with the increase rate ranging from 19.09% to 37.45% [17]. - Silicon wafers: The prices of various types of silicon wafers remained unchanged. The weekly silicon wafer production was 12.9GW, a 5.74% increase compared to the previous week. The weekly silicon wafer inventory was 26.5GW, a 22.06% decrease compared to the previous week [17]. - Cells: The prices of various types of cells remained mostly unchanged. The weekly inventory of photovoltaic cell external sales factories was 8.63GW, a 14.21% decrease compared to the previous week. The monthly photovoltaic cell production was 55.61GW, a 6.18% decrease compared to the previous month [17]. - Modules: The prices of various types of modules remained unchanged. The monthly module production was 46.9GW, a 2.49% decrease compared to the previous month. The domestic module inventory was 24.76GW, a 51.73% decrease compared to the previous month. The European module inventory was 33.1GW, a 6.50% decrease compared to the previous month [17]. - Polysilicon: The prices of various types of polysilicon remained unchanged. The weekly total inventory was 303,000 tons, a 3.41% increase compared to the previous week [17].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The price of domestic soybean meal is affected by the interaction of the US soybean market and domestic demand improvement. At the end of the year, the demand gradually enters the peak season, and the spot price premium supports the market. However, the news is mixed, and the short - term may maintain a volatile pattern. The price of US soybeans is also affected by factors such as China's soybean procurement and South American soybean production prospects [8][9]. - The price of domestic soybeans is supported by the cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic demand. However, the bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and the increase in domestic production of new - season soybeans suppress the price expectations [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips No relevant content provided. 2. Recent News - The preliminary agreement on China - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans, but the quantity of China's soybean purchases and the US soybean weather are still uncertain. The US soybean market is oscillating above the 1000 - point mark, waiting for further guidance [13]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China decreased in December, while the soybean inventory of oil mills remained at a relatively high level. The planting and growth weather of South American soybeans is relatively normal, and soybean meal has returned to range - bound trading [13]. - The decrease in domestic pig - breeding profits has led to a low expectation of pig replenishment. The demand for soybean meal has rebounded from a low level in December, supporting the price expectation. The interaction between the influence of US soybeans and the rebound in soybean meal demand has led to a return to the range - bound pattern [13]. - The soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills remains at a relatively high level. There is still a possibility of speculation about the weather in the US soybean - producing areas, and the preliminary agreement on China - US trade negotiations has an impact. In the short term, soybean meal will maintain a range - bound pattern, waiting for the clarification of US soybean production and further guidance on the follow - up of China - US trade negotiations [13]. 3. Long and Short Concerns Soybean Meal - **Long factors**: The preliminary agreement on China - US trade negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans; the soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills is not under pressure; the weather in the US and South American soybean - producing areas is still uncertain [14]. - **Short factors**: The total arrival volume of imported soybeans in China remained at a relatively high level in December; under normal weather conditions, South American soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest [15]. - **Current main logic**: The market focuses on the impact of the US soybean harvest weather and the follow - up of the preliminary China - US trade agreement [15]. Soybeans - **Long factors**: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market; the expected increase in domestic demand for domestic soybeans supports the price expectation [16]. - **Short factors**: The bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans; the increase in the production of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses the price expectation of beans [16]. - **Current main logic**: The market focuses on the impact of the US soybean weather and the China - US trade tariff game [16]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in East China is 3050, with a basis of 276, showing a premium over the futures. The inventory of oil mills is 113.71 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.66% and a year - on - year increase of 95.11% [9]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price is 4140, with a basis of - 16, showing a discount to the futures. The soybean inventory of oil mills is 722.36 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.32% and a year - on - year increase of 24.85% [11]. 5. Position Data - **Soybean Meal**: The main short positions have increased, and funds have flowed in [9]. - **Soybeans**: The main short positions have increased, and funds have flowed in [11]. 6. Views and Strategies Soybean Meal - The M2605 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 2720 - 2780. The market is affected by multiple factors such as the US soybean market, domestic demand, and inventory, and is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the short term [9]. Soybeans - The A2605 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 4120 - 4220. The price is supported by the cost of imported soybeans and domestic demand, but is suppressed by the bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and the increase in domestic production [11].

2025年12月30日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 供给端来看，根据隆众，2025年12月份沥青总计划排产量为215.8万吨，环比降幅3.24%。本周国内石油沥青样 本产能利用率为33.1376%，环比增加3.955个百分点，全国样本企业出货27.181万吨，环比增加11.17%,样本企 业产量为55.3万吨，环比增加13.55%,样本企业装置检修量预估为95.1万吨，环比减少0.41%,本周炼厂有所增 产，提升供应压力。下周或将增加供给压力。 需求端来看，重交沥青开工率为31.3%，环比增加0.13个百分点，低于历史平均水平；建筑沥青开工率为6.6%， 环比持平，低于历史平均水平；改性沥青开工率为7.10 ...