每日观点 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2026-1-5 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂产量高位，整体供给预期充裕；下游浮法玻璃、光伏日熔量整体延续下滑趋势， 纯碱厂库处于历史同期高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1120元/吨，SA2605收盘价为1209元/吨，基差为-89元，期货升 水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存140.83万吨，较前一周减少2.10%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线上方运行，20日线向下；中性 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面疲弱，短期预计震荡运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、设备问题导致企业减量检修，纯碱供应恢复较慢。 利空： 1、23年以来，纯碱产能大幅扩张，2025年 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The glass fundamentals are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. The production profit of glass has limited recovery, cold - repairs have increased leading to further supply contraction, downstream deep - processing orders are weak due to the real estate drag, and the inventory is at a historically high level for the same period [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main glass futures contract is 1087 yuan/ton, the spot price of Shahe Safety large - plate glass is 904 yuan/ton, and the main basis is - 183 yuan/ton, with a 0.00% change compared to the previous value [6]. 3.2 Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - plate in the spot benchmark area of Hebei Shahe is 904 yuan/ton, which is flat compared to the previous day [12]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - Cost Side - The production profit of glass has limited recovery, and there is an expectation of further cold - repairs in the industry due to low production profit [2][4]. 3.4 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - The number of operating national float glass production lines is 218, with an operating rate of 73.89%, and the number of operating production lines is at a historically low level for the same period. The daily melting capacity of national float glass is 154,500 tons, and the production capacity is at a historically low level for the same period [22][24]. 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - In November 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.6944 million tons. The real - estate terminal demand remains weak, the order volume of glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historically low level for the same period, and the capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, causing traders and processors to be cautious and mainly consume the original glass inventory [28][4]. 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 56.866 million weight boxes, a 3.00% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory is above the five - year average [2][44]. 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of float glass from 2017 to 2024E, including data such as production, consumption, production growth rate, consumption growth rate, and net import ratio. For example, in 2017, the production was 53.54 million tons, the consumption was 52.29 million tons, and the net import ratio was - 1.734%. In 2024E, the production is expected to be 55.1 million tons, the consumption is expected to be 53.1 million tons, and the production growth rate is 3.94% [45].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The supply side of copper has disturbances, with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap copper policy being relaxed. The December manufacturing PMI rose to the expansion range. The copper price hit a new high again and fluctuated significantly at a high level, and attention should be paid to position control [3]. - The global policy is loose and the mine end is in short supply, while the risks include natural disasters [4]. - There are geopolitical disturbances in Russia-Ukraine and Iran-Israel, the Fed may cut interest rates, and the mine end production increase is slow with a production reduction event in the Freeport Indonesia mining area. On the other hand, the US comprehensive tariff may exceed expectations, and the global economy is not optimistic, and high copper prices will suppress downstream consumption [5]. - The copper market will have a slight surplus in 2024 and a tight balance in 2025 [20]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - Fundamentals: Supply side has disturbances, smelting enterprises cut production, scrap copper policy is relaxed, and December manufacturing PMI rose to the expansion range; neutral [3]. - Basis: Spot price is 99,280, basis is 1,190, at a premium to futures; bullish [3]. - Inventory: On December 31, copper inventory decreased by 2,100 to 145,325 tons, and SHFE copper inventory increased by 33,639 tons to 145,342 tons compared with last week; neutral [3]. - Disk: Closing price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward; bullish [3]. - Main position: Main net short position decreased; bearish [3]. - Expectation: Geopolitical disturbances still exist, the Grasberg Block Cave mine event in Indonesia has fermented, the copper price hit a new high again and fluctuated significantly at a high level, and attention should be paid to position control [3]. Recent利多利空Analysis - Bullish factors: Global policy is loose and the mine end is in short supply [4]. - Bearish factors: US comprehensive tariff may exceed expectations, and the global economy is not optimistic, and high copper prices will suppress downstream consumption [5]. Inventory - Bonded area inventory: Bonded area inventory has rebounded from a low level [14]. Processing Fee - Processing fee: Processing fee has declined [16]. Supply and Demand Balance - 2024 will have a slight surplus, and 2025 will be in a tight balance [20]. - China's annual supply and demand balance table shows the production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply and demand balance of copper from 2018 to 2024 [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The current daily production and operating rate of urea are stable, and the comprehensive inventory continues to decline with an obvious de - stocking pattern. The overall demand is not strong, and the domestic urea market is still in a state of oversupply. The UR main contract is expected to fluctuate today [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: The current daily production and operating rate are stable, the comprehensive inventory continues to decline, and the de - stocking pattern is obvious. Agricultural and industrial demands are mainly on - demand, and overall procurement is not active. The operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine are stable, and the reserve demand continues to slow down. There is a large price difference between domestic and foreign markets for exports, and recent information on new export quotas still affects the futures market. The overall domestic urea market is oversupplied. The spot price of the delivery product is 1710 (+20), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2605 contract is - 39, and the premium/discount ratio is - 2.3%, which is bearish [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 119.1 million tons (-5.5), which is neutral [4]. - **Futures Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is flat, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is reduced, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The futures price of the urea main contract rebounds in a fluctuating manner. The industrial demand is mainly on - demand, the inventory is being de - stocked, and the domestic oversupply is still obvious. It is expected that the UR will fluctuate today [4]. - **Likely Factors**: Inventory de - stocking is a positive factor, while domestic oversupply is a negative factor. The main logic lies in international prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. Spot and Futures Market Quotes | Category | Details | |--|--| | **Spot** | The price of the spot delivery product is 1710, with a change of +20; the price of Shandong spot is 1710 with no change; the price of Henan spot is 1710 with no change; the FOB China price is 2798 [6]. | | **Futures** | The price of the 05 contract is 1749 with no change; the basis is - 39, with a change of +10; the price of UR01 is 1661 with no change; the price of UR05 is 1749 with no change; the price of UR09 is 1715 with no change [6]. | | **Inventory** | The number of warehouse receipts is 12381 with no change; the UR comprehensive inventory is 119.1 million tons; the UR manufacturer inventory is 101.9 million tons; the UR port inventory is 17.2 million tons [6]. | Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Urea | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Production | Net Imports | Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | End - of - Period Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | |--|--|--|--|--|--|--|--|--|--| | 2018 | | 2245.5 | | 1956.81 | 18.6% | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | | | 2019 | | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 17.9% | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 19.3% | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 10.7% | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 10.2% | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 8.4% | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 9.5% | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | | 4906 | 11.0% | | | | | | | [9] |

Report Overview - The report is a polyolefin morning report dated January 5, 2026, focusing on LLDPE and PP [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to be volatile today, with both facing an oversupply situation, neutral industry inventories, and weak downstream demand [4][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In December, the official manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range after 8 months. OPEC+ decided to maintain the November 2025 production plan and suspend production increases in February and March 2026. The US military's actions in Venezuela are expected to have limited impact on domestic crude oil and chemical products. The demand for agricultural films is continuously weak, and packaging film enterprises mainly purchase on demand. The current LLDPE delivery product spot price is 6350 (+10), with overall neutral fundamentals [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2605 contract is -122, with a premium - discount ratio of -1.9%, indicating a bearish outlook [4] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 39.8 million tons (-9.3), which is neutral [4] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, showing a bearish signal [4] - **Main Position**: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is increasing, indicating a bullish trend [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to be volatile today, with an oversupply situation in the fundamentals, neutral industry inventory, and weak downstream demand [4] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE in the macro - aspect. The PDH maintenance rate has started to increase. The demand for plastic woven products is mainly based on rigid demand, and the demand for pipes has generally declined. The current PP delivery product spot price is 6270 (+20), with overall neutral fundamentals [7] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2605 contract is -78, with a premium - discount ratio of -1.2%, indicating a bearish outlook [7] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 49.1 million tons (-4.3), which is neutral [7] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, showing a neutral signal [7] - **Main Position**: The net short position of the PP main contract is decreasing, indicating a bearish trend [7] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to rebound and be volatile today, with an oversupply situation in the fundamentals, neutral industry inventory, weak downstream demand, and an increasing PDH maintenance rate [7] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene have generally shown an upward trend, while the import dependence has gradually decreased. The production capacity in 2025E is expected to be 4319.5 [14] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene have also generally increased, and the import dependence has decreased. The production capacity in 2025E is expected to be 4906 [16]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For PTA, last week the supply of PTA plants returned, and the downstream polyester load increased slightly. The supply - demand pattern of PTA weakened month - on - month. The activity of traders in the spot market decreased before the New Year's Day holiday, but some major suppliers were more active in shipping. The spot basis was strong. It is expected that the short - term PTA spot price will fluctuate following the cost side, and the spot basis will fluctuate in a range. Attention should be paid to oil price fluctuations and changes in upstream and downstream plants [5]. - For MEG, recently, affected by gale weather, some ships were delayed. It is expected that the port inventory will remain stable or slightly decrease at the beginning of this week. The polyester load has been running at around 90.8%, but the industrial chain transmission is poor, and the terminal load has still decreased locally. The demand - side support is general. MEG has seasonal inventory accumulation pressure in the near - month, and the overall intention of holding goods in the market is weak. It is expected that the price center of MEG will be sorted in a low range recently. Attention should be paid to oil prices and plant changes [7]. Summary by Directory 1.前日回顾 - Not provided in the content 2.每日提示 - **PTA Daily View** - Fundamental analysis on Wednesday: spot negotiation was scarce, January contracts were negotiated at a discount of 40 - 50 to the 05 contract, with a price negotiation range of 5060 - 5130, and the mainstream spot basis was 05 - 46 (neutral). The spot price was 5097, the 05 contract basis was - 13, and the futures price was at a premium (neutral). PTA factory inventory was 3.61 days, a decrease of 0.15 days month - on - month (bullish). The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the closing price was above the 20 - day moving average (bullish). The net long position of the main contract decreased (bullish) [5][6]. - **MEG Daily View** - Fundamental analysis on Wednesday: the price center of ethylene glycol weakened, and market negotiation was average. At night, the price of ethylene glycol fluctuated and sorted, with little negotiation in the market. During the day, the ethylene glycol futures price fluctuated downward, negotiation was stalemate in the morning, and buying interest picked up in the afternoon. The basis of next - week's spot strengthened to a discount of about 126 yuan/ton to the 05 contract, and there was little negotiation on this week's spot, with some low - level transactions at a discount of 155 - 156 yuan/ton to the 05 contract. The spot price was 3678, the 05 contract basis was - 125, and the futures price was at a premium (bearish). The total inventory in East China was 66.35 tons, an increase of 0.57 tons month - on - month (bearish). The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the closing price was above the 20 - day moving average (bearish). The net short position of the main contract increased (bearish). Recently affected by gale weather, some ships were delayed. It is expected that the port inventory will remain stable or slightly decrease at the beginning of this week. The polyester load has been running at around 90.8%, but the industrial chain transmission is poor, and the terminal load has still decreased locally. The demand - side support is general. MEG has seasonal inventory accumulation pressure in the near - month, and the overall intention of holding goods in the market is weak. It is expected that the price center of MEG will be sorted in a low range recently [7]. 3.今日关注 - **Influential Factors Summary** - Bullish factors: a 500,000 - ton/year ethylene glycol plant in Zhejiang has been shut down for maintenance as planned recently and is expected to restart around the end of January. Ineos' 1.1 - million - ton and Yisheng Ningbo's 2.2 - million - ton plants restarted [8]. - Bearish factors: Dushan Energy's 2.5 - million - ton plant restarted, Zhongtai's 1.2 - million - ton plant operated at a low load after restarting, and Weilian Chemical's 2.5 - million - ton plant increased its load [9]. - Current main logic and risk points: the short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and attention should be paid to the upper resistance level when the futures price rebounds [9]. 4.基本面数据 - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: shows the supply and demand data of PTA from January 2024 to December 2025, including PTA production capacity, load, output, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and inventory [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: shows the supply and demand data of ethylene glycol from January 2024 to December 2025, including production, import, total supply, polyester consumption, and port inventory [11]. - **Price Data**: includes the price changes of various products such as naphtha, p - xylene, PTA, MEG, polyester fibers on December 31, 2025, compared with December 30, 2025, as well as the basis and profit data [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The over - supply situation in the aluminum industry is difficult to change in 2026, and policies and the mine end are the key variables [58] - The main theme of supply and demand in 2026 is still surplus, and the expected price driver mainly depends on changes in the mines. If prices remain low for a long time, attention should be paid to new changes in anti - involution policies. Overall, prices will fluctuate around the cost - end, with short - term news causing only minor disturbances, and are expected to operate in the range of 2400 - 3000 yuan/ton [58] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Pre - review - The short - term rise in aluminum prices was due to the National Development and Reform Commission's article encouraging large - scale alumina and copper smelting enterprises to implement mergers and acquisitions to improve scale and group levels [5] 3.2 Macroeconomic Aspect No information related to the macro - economic aspect is provided in the report. 3.3 Fundamental Aspect 3.3.1 Bauxite - In 2026, bauxite production is expected to increase by 1500 - 2200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3 - 4%. The main incremental source is the commissioning of Nimba (formerly GAC), with an expected annual capacity of 1400 tons. However, this may not be enough to make up for the reduction in production at the AXIS mine in 2025 [13][58] - Ore prices may face a situation of decreasing supply and increasing demand, with limited downward space. If the commissioning of Nimba is less than expected, the ore may return to a tight supply situation in the first quarter of 2026 [58] 3.3.2 Alumina - In 2025 - 2026, domestic alumina new production capacity is expected to increase by 1390 tons, and overseas production capacity is expected to increase by 330 tons. The overall smelting capacity will be sufficient [20] - The cost on December 29 was 2800 yuan, with a loss of 140 yuan [52] 3.3.3 Electrolytic Aluminum - The cost of electrolytic aluminum is 16,150 yuan/ton, and the profit is close to 6,000 yuan [28] 3.3.4 Aluminum Demand - In the first 10 months of 2025, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing decreased by 6.8% year - on - year, the new construction area decreased by 19.8% year - on - year, and the investment amount decreased by 14.7% year - on - year. It is difficult to expect good performance in 2026 [40] - In the first 10 months of 2025, air - conditioner production increased by 3% year - on - year, with a production volume of 230.34 million units, and the growth rate slowed down. In 2026, domestic home appliance sales growth is limited, and there are challenges in overseas markets [42] - In the first 10 months of 2025, the cumulative automobile production was 27.69 million units, a year - on - year increase of 13.2%. In 2026, traditional automobile consumption will face greater pressure, and the growth rate of new energy vehicles may also slow down [44] 3.4 Market Structure - In terms of capital, the long - position increased by 6,559, and the net long - position was 651,203; the short - position decreased by 9,890, and the net short - position was 387,635. The net position was 31,545, and the long - short difference was 112,305 [56] 3.5 Outlook - The supply side: The industry continues to face losses, and supply pressure remains. Ore prices have strong support due to decreasing supply and increasing demand, and domestic alumina smelting capacity is expected to increase by 1000 tons next year [58] - The demand side: The marginal support on the demand side is limited. Although the current capacity utilization rate of electrolytic aluminum has reached 98% and provides rigid support for alumina demand in the short term, there is limited room for further growth in demand due to the production capacity ceiling [58] - Market forecast: The supply - demand situation in 2026 is still in surplus, and prices will mainly operate in the range of 2400 - 3000 yuan/ton [58]

Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - Under the interweaving of long and short factors, it is expected that domestic methanol will maintain a bottom - range oscillation this week. The inland methanol downstream has high raw material inventories and mainly conducts rigid - demand procurement. The upstream has few overhauls and maintains a low - inventory norm before the festival. There is no incremental demand in the northwest, and factories still focus on sales. The current prices in the production and sales areas are at the bottom, and traders are cautious about short - selling. It is expected that the inland market will remain in a stalemate this week. In the port area, there are positive policy expectations across the year at the macro level, and the bottom - support from the reduction of overseas arrivals in the fundamental aspect is solid. However, at present, prices lack driving forces and are in a dilemma in terms of trends. It is expected that the port market will oscillate within a range this week. Pay attention to the macro trend and the actual de - stocking node in the ports. It is expected that methanol prices will oscillate weakly this week, with MA2605 operating in the range of 2120 - 2180 [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - The fundamentals of methanol 2605 are neutral. The basis shows that the spot in Jiangsu is at a premium to the futures, which is bullish. The inventory shows a significant increase in the social inventory of methanol in the East and South China ports, and an increase in the available circulating supply in the coastal areas, which is bearish. The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is below the moving average, which is bearish. The main positions are net short, and the short positions are decreasing, which is bearish. It is expected that the methanol price will oscillate weakly this week, with MA2605 operating in the range of 2120 - 2180 [5]. 2. Long and Short Concerns Bullish Factors - Some devices have stopped production, such as Yulin Kaiyue and Xinjiang Xinyao. The methanol production in Iran has decreased, and the port inventory is at a low level. A 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Jingmen has produced products on May 16th, and a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong is planned to be put into production in the second half of this month. CTO factories in the northwest are purchasing methanol externally [6]. Bearish Factors - Some previously shut - down devices have resumed production, such as Inner Mongolia Donghua. There are expected to be concentrated arrivals at the ports in the second half of the month. Formaldehyde has entered the traditional off - season, and the MTBE operating rate has dropped significantly. Coal - based methanol has a certain profit margin and is currently actively selling. Some factories in the production areas have accumulated inventory due to continuous poor sales [7]. 3. Fundamental Data Price Data - In the spot market, the price of steam - coal in the Bohai Rim is 695 yuan/ton (unchanged), the CFR price at the main port in China is 251 US dollars/ton (up 3 US dollars/ton), the import cost is 2192 yuan/ton (up 24 yuan/ton), etc. In the futures market, the futures closing price is 2161 yuan/ton (unchanged), the number of registered warrants is 6648 (down 100), etc. The basis is - 11 yuan/ton (up 15 yuan/ton), and the import price difference is 31 yuan/ton (up 24 yuan/ton) [8]. - The domestic methanol spot prices in different regions have different trends. The price in Jiangsu has increased by 0.84% to 2150 yuan/ton, the price in Shandong has remained unchanged at 2310 yuan/ton, the price in Hebei has remained unchanged at 2095 yuan/ton, the price in Inner Mongolia has decreased by 5.51% to 1800 yuan/ton, and the price in Fujian has increased by 0.94% to 2155 yuan/ton [9]. Operating Rate Data - The national weighted average operating rate is 74.90%, down 3.81% from last week. The operating rates in different regions have also decreased to varying degrees, such as 81.54% in the northwest (down 3.55%), 68.71% in Shandong (down 2.39%), etc. [8]. Inventory Data - As of December 25, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in the East and South China ports is 113.16 million tons, a significant increase of 11.32 million tons from the previous period. The available circulating supply of methanol in the coastal areas (Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and South China) has increased by 3.93 million tons to 63.44 million tons [5]. Profit Data - The profits of different methanol production processes vary. The profit of coal - based methanol is - 73 yuan/ton, the profit of natural - gas - based methanol is - 40 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the profit of coke - oven - gas - based methanol is 294 yuan/ton (up 32 yuan/ton) [21]. Downstream Product Data - The prices of traditional downstream products of methanol have different trends. The price of formaldehyde has remained unchanged at 1070 yuan/ton, the price of dimethyl ether has remained unchanged at 3850 yuan/ton, and the price of acetic acid has increased by 0.74% to 2720 yuan/ton [32]. - The production profits and operating rates of downstream products also vary. For example, the production profit of formaldehyde is - 122 yuan/ton (unchanged), the operating rate is 30.98% (up 0.01%); the production profit of dimethyl ether is 575 yuan/ton (unchanged), the operating rate is 9.79% (up 1.45%); the production profit of acetic acid is 338 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton), the operating rate is 72.32% (down 1.29%); the production profit of MTO is - 880 yuan/ton (down 58 yuan/ton), the operating rate is 84.18% (down 2.27%) [37][40][45][50]. 4. Overhaul Conditions Domestic Device Overhaul - Many domestic methanol production enterprises are in the process of overhaul or have overhaul plans, involving different regions such as the northwest, east, southwest, and northeast. For example, Shaanxi Black Cat's 100,000 - ton/year coke - oven - gas - based methanol device has been shut down for overhaul since November 2024, and Qinghai Zhonghao's 600,000 - ton/year natural - gas - based methanol device has been shut down for overhaul from October 23, 2024, to the end of March 2025 [60]. Overseas Device Operation - Overseas methanol production devices also have different operating conditions. Some Iranian devices are in the process of resuming production, such as ZPC, which is rumored to have resumed one set (to be verified). Some devices in other countries are operating normally, such as Ar - Razi in Saudi Arabia and Petronas in Malaysia [61]. Olefin Device Operation - The operating conditions of domestic olefin devices vary. Some devices are in normal operation, such as Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy's 700,000 - ton/year olefin device, which stopped for overhaul on March 15, 2025, and is expected to last for 45 days. Some devices are operating stably, such as Yan'an Energy and Chemical's 600,000 - ton/year olefin device [62].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-12-30原油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 原油2602： 1.基本面：俄罗斯周一指控乌克兰试图袭击总统普京位于俄罗斯北部的官邸，但未提供任何证据。基 辅方面驳斥这一说法毫无根据，称其意在破坏和平谈判；一名业内人士表示，哈萨克斯坦12月石油产 量下降约6%，主要由于由雪佛龙公司主导的巨型Tengiz油田产量下降，此前乌克兰一次无人机袭击损 坏了俄罗斯的黑海出口终端；美国总统特朗普表示，他担忧伊朗正在试图重建其核能力并加强弹道导 弹计划，他威胁将再次打击伊朗，以阻止德黑兰储存武器；中性 2.基差：12月29日，阿曼原油现货价为61.72美元/桶，卡塔尔海洋原油现货价 ...

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The Asian fuel oil market structure will remain near the current level. The market supply is sufficient recently, and the market demand has slowed down due to the holidays. With the increasing geopolitical risks, it provides short - term support for prices. It is expected that fuel oil will fluctuate. The FU2603 will operate in the range of 2450 - 2500, and the LU2603 will operate in the range of 2980 - 3030 [3] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - The fundamentals show that the Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market will face resistance in 2026 due to poor demand and supply surplus. The high - sulfur fuel oil market will fluctuate within a certain range with relatively weak downstream demand. The basis indicates that spot is at a discount to futures. The inventory in Singapore increased by 140,000 barrels to 22.559 million barrels in the week of December 17. The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is flat. High - sulfur main positions are short and increasing, while low - sulfur main positions are long and increasing. [3] - The previous day's FU and LU futures prices were 2503 and 3023 respectively, and the current values are 2473 and 2984, down 1.20% and 1.29% respectively. The previous day's FU and LU basis were - 1 and 19 respectively, and the current values are - 15 and - 13, down 955.70% and 168.82% respectively [5] - The previous day's prices of Zhoushan high - sulfur, Zhoushan low - sulfur, Singapore high - sulfur, Singapore low - sulfur, Middle East high - sulfur fuel oil and Singapore diesel were 433.00, 460.00, 343.44, 421.50, 317.01 and 588.05 respectively. The current values are 430.00, 455.00, 337.24, 411.08, 311.06 and 584.21 respectively, with decreases ranging from 0.65% to 2.47% [6] 3.2 Long and Short Concerns - Bullish factors: Russia's fuel export restrictions; cancellation of US - Russia talks and sanctions on Russian oil - related enterprises [4] - Bearish factors: The optimism of the demand side remains to be verified; the upstream crude oil is under pressure [4] - Market drivers: The supply side is affected by geopolitical risks, and the demand is neutral [4] 3.3 Fundamental Data - The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market has been troubled by oversupply in 2025, and similar inflows are expected to increase inventory in 2026. The high - sulfur fuel oil market will fluctuate within a certain range, and the downstream demand is relatively weak [3] 3.4 Spread Data - The report presents the price differences between high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuels, but specific data analysis is not provided in the text [11] 3.5 Inventory Data - Singapore fuel oil inventory data from October 8 to December 17 shows fluctuations. The inventory on December 17 was 22.559 million barrels, an increase of 140,000 barrels from the previous week [8]