交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2025年8月1日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 棉花： 1、基本面：ICAC7月报：25/26年度产量2590万吨，消费2560万吨。USDA7月报：25/26年 度产量2578.3万吨，消费2571.8万吨，期末库存1683.5万吨。海关：6月纺织品服装出口 273.1亿美元，同比下降0.1%。6月份我国棉花进口3万吨，同比减少82.1%；棉纱进口11万 吨，同比增加0.1%。农村部7月25/26年度：产量625万吨，进口140万吨，消费740万吨， 期末库存823万吨。中性。 6：预期：中美贸易谈判继续延后，关税暂时维持现状。郑棉主力即将换月01，近期下跌 09跌 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply increased last week, demand remained weak, and costs in Xinjiang showed reduced support during the wet season. The 2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 9090 - 9480 yuan/ton. The overall fundamental situation is bearish [6]. - For polysilicon, the supply continues to increase, while the demand shows a short - term decline in wafer production but a medium - term recovery expectation. The battery and component production shows a continuous decline. The 2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 53400 - 56010 yuan/ton. The overall fundamental situation is bearish [9][10][11]. - The main bullish factors are cost increase support and manufacturers' plans for production cuts and shutdowns. The main bearish factors are the slow recovery of post - holiday demand and the strong supply and weak demand in the downstream polysilicon market. The main logic is that the supply - demand mismatch leads to a difficult - to - change downward trend [14][15]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Daily Views Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the supply was 78,000 tons, a 1.30% week - on - week increase [6]. - Demand: Last week, the demand was 71,000 tons, a 4.05% week - on - week decrease. The demand remains sluggish [6]. - Cost: In Xinjiang, the production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 2027 yuan/ton, and the cost support weakened during the wet season [6]. - Basis: On July 30, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9750 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was 465 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [6]. - Inventory: The social inventory was 535,000 tons, a 2.19% week - on - week decrease; the sample enterprise inventory was 177,500 tons, a 2.57% week - on - week increase; the main port inventory was 120,000 tons, remaining unchanged week - on - week, which is bearish [6]. - Disk: The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed above the MA20, which is bullish [6]. - Main position: The main position is net short, and the short position increased, which is bearish [6]. - Expectation: The supply scheduling decreases and remains at a low level, the demand recovery is at a low level, and the cost support increases. The industrial silicon 2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 9090 - 9480 yuan/ton [6]. Polysilicon - Supply: Last week, the production was 25,500 tons, a 10.86% week - on - week increase. The scheduled production in July is expected to be 106,800 tons, a 5.74% month - on - month increase [9]. - Demand: The wafer production last week was 11.2 GW, a 0.90% week - on - week increase. The wafer inventory was 178,700 tons, a 11.54% week - on - week increase, and the wafer production is currently at a loss. The scheduled production in July is 52.2 GW, a 11.28% month - on - month decrease. The battery production in June was 56.19 GW, a 6.73% month - on - month decrease. The external sales factory inventory of battery cells last week was 5.33 GW, a 46.37% week - on - week decrease, and the battery production is currently at a loss. The scheduled production in July is 54.52 GW, a 2.97% month - on - month decrease. The component production in June was 46.3 GW, a 10.61% month - on - month decrease. The expected component production in July is 45.45 GW, a 1.83% month - on - month decrease. The domestic monthly inventory is 24.76 GW, a 51.73% month - on - month decrease, and the European monthly inventory is 30.5 GW, a 20.77% month - on - month decrease. The component production is currently profitable [10]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 36,390 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 9,110 yuan/ton [10]. - Basis: On July 30, the price of N - type dense material was 45,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was - 8205 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is bearish [12]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory was 243,000 tons, a 2.40% week - on - week decrease, remaining at a high level in the same period of history, which is neutral [12]. - Disk: The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed above the MA20, which is bullish [12]. - Main position: The main position is net long, and the long position increased, which is bullish [12]. - Expectation: The supply scheduling continues to increase, the demand shows a short - term decline in wafer production but a medium - term recovery expectation, the battery and component production shows a continuous decline. The overall demand shows a recovery but may be weak in the future. The cost support remains stable. The polysilicon 2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 53400 - 56010 yuan/ton [11]. 2. Fundamental/Position Data - Industrial silicon: The report provides detailed data on prices, inventories, production, and cost - profit of different contracts and specifications of industrial silicon, as well as the production, inventory, and cost - profit data of its downstream organic silicon and aluminum alloy industries [18]. - Polysilicon: The report provides detailed data on prices, production, inventory, and cost - profit of polysilicon and its downstream wafers, battery cells, and components [20].

PVC期货早报 2025年7月31日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2025年6月PVC产量为199.134万吨，环比减少1.40%；本周样本企业产能利 用率为76.79%，环比减少0.01个百分点；电石法企业产量33.834万吨，环比减少0.58%,乙烯法企业产 量11.319万吨，环比减少2.32%；本周供给压力有所减少；下周预计检修有所减少，预计排产增加幅度 可观。 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为41.88%，环比增加.77个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游型材开工率 为38%，环比增加.45个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游管材开工率为32.52%，环比减少1.23个百分 点，低于历史平均水平；下 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Report's Core View - The fundamentals of methanol 2509 show that the port market may be supported by coal reform in the short - term, but the expected concentrated import arrivals next week may limit the rise. The inland market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with high - temperature off - season and poor downstream profitability, but policies have a positive impact on the mentality of inland operators. It is expected that the inland methanol market will continue to be stable with a slight upward trend this week. Overall, it is expected that the methanol price will fluctuate this week, with MA2509 operating in the range of 2390 - 2500 yuan/ton [5]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Prompt - Expected methanol price this week: It is expected that the methanol price will fluctuate, and MA2509 will operate in the range of 2390 - 2500 yuan/ton [5]. - Fundamental analysis of methanol 2509: The port market may be affected by coal reform and import arrivals; the inland market has a weak supply - demand situation. The base - difference shows that the spot price is higher than the futures price; the inventory in ports has decreased; the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the price is above the average; the main - force position is net short with a decrease in short positions [5]. 2. Multi - and Short - Term Concerns - **Likely to be bullish**: Some device shutdowns such as Yulin Kaiyue and Xinjiang Xiye; decreased methanol production in Iran and low port inventory; the commissioning of a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Jingmen and the planned commissioning of a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong this month; external procurement of methanol by CTO plants in the Northwest [6]. - **Likely to be bearish**: The resumption of previously shut - down devices such as Inner Mongolia Donghua; expected concentrated vessel arrivals at ports in the second half of the month; formaldehyde entering the traditional off - season and a significant decline in MTBE operation; certain profit margins for coal - based methanol production and active sales; inventory accumulation in some producing - area factories due to poor sales [7]. 3. Fundamental Data - **Spot market**: The price of thermal coal in the Bohai Rim is 665 yuan/ton, CFR China main port is 277 US dollars/ton, and the import cost is 2445 yuan/ton. The prices in different domestic regions vary, such as 2407 yuan/ton in Jiangsu, 2230 yuan/ton in southern Shandong, etc. [8]. - **Futures market**: The futures closing price is 2419 yuan/ton, the registered warehouse receipts are 8834, and the effective forecast is 0. The base - difference is - 12 yuan/ton, and the import spread is 26 yuan/ton [8]. - **Spread structure**: The spread between Jiangsu and southern Shandong is 177 yuan/ton, and the spread between China and Southeast Asia is - 57 US dollars/ton [8]. - **Operating rate**: The national weighted average operating rate is 74.90%, with a decrease of 3.81% compared to the previous week. The operating rates in different regions such as East China, Shandong, and the Southwest have also changed [8]. - **Inventory situation**: As of July 24, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports is 58.71 tons, with a decrease of 0.89 tons compared to the previous period. The overall available and tradable methanol in coastal areas has decreased by 0.25 tons to 32.58 tons [5]. 4. Maintenance Status - **Domestic methanol plant maintenance**: Multiple plants in different regions such as the Northwest, North China, East China, Southwest, and Northeast are in a state of maintenance, including planned maintenance, unplanned maintenance, and production reduction due to various reasons [57]. - **Foreign methanol plant operation**: Some plants in Iran are in the process of resuming production, and plants in other countries such as Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and the United States have different operating conditions, including normal operation, low - level operation, and planned shutdowns [58]. - **Methanol - olefin plant operation**: Methanol - olefin plants in different regions have different operating conditions, including normal operation, maintenance, and shutdown. For example, some plants in the Northwest and East China are in normal operation, while some are in maintenance or have been shut down for a long time [59].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of pigs and pork is expected to decrease this week, and the market may experience a double - reduction in supply and demand. The pig price is expected to maintain a short - term oscillatory pattern. Attention should be paid to the changes in the monthly group - farm slaughter rhythm and the dynamics of the secondary fattening market [10]. - The spot price is at a discount to the futures, and the price is below the 20 - day moving average with a downward direction. The main positions are net short, and the shorts are increasing. The recent supply and demand of live pigs have both decreased, and it is expected that the pig price will rise and then fall this week, returning to the range - bound pattern. The LH2509 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 13,900 - 14,300 [10]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Hints - The supply of live pigs may decrease this week after the holiday, and the demand is also weak due to the macro - environment and high - temperature weather. The market is expected to have a double - reduction in supply and demand, and the pig price will maintain a short - term oscillatory pattern [10]. 3.2 Recent News - China's additional tariffs on pork imports from the US and Canada have boosted market confidence. After the May Day holiday, the domestic pig consumption market entered the off - season, with a decrease in the slaughter of large pigs. The supply and demand of live pigs have both decreased, and the spot price has been oscillating weakly in the short term, with the futures following the same pattern [12]. - After the May Day holiday, the demand for pork has weakened in the short term. Affected by the double - reduction in supply and demand, the spot price of live pigs has been oscillating weakly, but the decline may be limited due to the decrease in slaughter [12]. - The profit of domestic pig farming remains at a low level, but there is still a short - term profit. The enthusiasm for slaughtering large pigs is relatively high in the short term. The double - reduction in supply and demand suppresses the short - term price expectations of live pig futures and spot [12]. - The spot price of live pigs may oscillate weakly after the May Day holiday, and the futures will generally maintain a short - term oscillatory and weak pattern. When the price stabilizes depends on the future reduction in supply and recovery in demand [12]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish Factors**: The year - on - year decline in domestic live pig inventory and the limited room for further decline in the domestic live pig spot price [13]. - **Bearish Factors**: The pessimistic expectations in the domestic macro - environment due to the Sino - US tariff war and the entry of the pig and pork consumption market into the off - season after May Day [13]. - **Main Logic**: The market focuses on the slaughter situation of live pigs and the demand for fresh meat [13]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Spot Price**: As of July 30, the national average spot price of live pigs was 13,890 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 2509 contract was - 185 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot was at a discount to the futures [10][14]. - **Inventory**: As of June 30, the live pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.4% and a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. As of the end of June, the inventory of fertile sows was 40.42 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.02% and a year - on - year increase of 4.2% [10]. - **Price Trend**: The price was below the 20 - day moving average with a downward direction [10]. 3.5 Position Data - The main positions were net short, and the shorts were increasing [10].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 2025年7月31日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 5、主力持仓: 主力持仓净多，多增。 偏多。 供给端来看，根据隆众，2025年8月份国内沥青总计划排产量为241.3万吨，环比降幅5.1%, 同比增幅17.1%。本周国内石油沥青样本产能利用率为30.9204%，环比减少3.36个百分 点，全国样本企业出货26.9万吨，环比增加8.03%,样本企业产量为51.6万吨，环比减少 9.79%,样本企业装置检修量预估为64.2万吨，环比增加11.85%,本周炼厂有所减产，降低 供应压力。下周或将增加供给压力。 需求端来看，重交沥青开工率为28.8%，环比减少0.12个百分点，低于历史平均水平；建筑 沥青开工率为18 ...

2025-07-31 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 菜粕早报 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸菜粕观点和策略 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 菜粕RM2509：2680至2740区间震荡 1.基本面：菜粕探底回升，豆粕走势带动和技术性震荡整理，菜粕油厂开机处于低位，菜粕 库存维持低位支撑盘面。菜粕现货需求短期进入旺季，进口油菜籽到港量增多但油厂库 存短期无压力，盘面短期维持区间震荡。中国对加拿大油渣饼进口加征关税短期利多菜 粕，但未对油菜籽进口加征关税，利多程度也或有限。中性 2.基差：现货2640，基差-95，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：菜粕库存1.9万吨，上周1.51万吨，周环比增加25.83%，去年同期3.4万吨，同比减 少44.12% ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年7月31日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 1、基本面：鲍威尔未就9月降息给出明确指引，9月降息预期降温，金价回落；美国 三大股指涨跌不一，欧洲主要股指收盘小幅上涨；美债收益率集体下跌，10年期跌 8.75个基点报4.322%；美元指数涨1.06%报99.97，离岸人民币对美元大幅贬值报 7.2123；COMEX黄金期货跌1.58%报3327.9美元/盎司；中性 2、基差：黄金期货773.78，现货769.42，基差-4.36，现货贴水期货；中性 3、库存：黄金期货仓单33462千克，增加2199千克；偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向上，k线在20日均线 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for the 24/25 season is high, the Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US biodiesel policy for soybean oil supports increased biodiesel consumption. The imposition of tariffs on Canadian rapeseed in China has led to a rise in the rapeseed sector, and the domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral with stable import inventories. The easing of Sino-US and Sino-Canadian relations affects the market at the macro level. [3][5][6] - The main logic currently revolves around the relatively loose global fundamentals of oils and fats. [7] Summary by Category Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that Malaysian palm oil production in May decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month-on-month to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% month-on-month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with the production decline falling short of expectations. Currently, shipping survey agencies indicate that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season. [3][4][5] - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8420, with a basis of 180, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price. [4] - **Inventory**: On July 4th, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 880,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% higher year-on-year. [4] - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. [4] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased. [3] - **Expectation**: The price of soybean oil Y2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8000 - 8400. [3] Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season. [5] - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 9050, with a basis of 68, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price. [5] - **Inventory**: On July 4th, the port inventory of palm oil was 380,000 tons, down 10,000 tons from the previous period and 34.1% lower year-on-year. [5] - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. [5] - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main palm oil contract have increased. [5] - **Expectation**: The price of palm oil P2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8700 - 9100. [5] Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season. [6] - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9700, with a basis of 79, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price. [6] - **Inventory**: On July 4th, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 650,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% higher year-on-year. [6] - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. [6] - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have increased. [6] - **Expectation**: The price of rapeseed oil OI2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9400 - 9800. [6] Recent利多利空Analysis - **利多**: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply, and it is the palm oil production decline season. [7] - **利空**: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, the domestic inventory of oils and fats is continuously increasing, the macro economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high. [7] Supply and Demand - **Supply**: Items include import soybean inventory, soybean oil inventory, soybean meal inventory, oil mill soybean crushing, palm oil inventory, rapeseed oil inventory, rapeseed inventory, and domestic total inventory of oils and fats [8][10][12] - **Demand**: The apparent consumption of soybean oil is mentioned. [16]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-7-31 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 纯碱： 1、基本面： "反内卷"情绪消退；碱厂检修较少，供给仍处高位；下游浮法玻璃日熔量平稳， 光伏日熔量大幅下滑，终端需求走弱，纯碱厂库处于历史高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1300元/吨，SA2509收盘价为1311元/吨，基差为-11元，期货 升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存186.46万吨，较前一周减少2.15%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线上方运行，20日线向上；偏多 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面供强需弱，政策利好情绪消退，短期预计震荡运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、夏季检修高峰期来临，产量将有所下滑。 每日观点 利空： ...