大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：当前日产及开工率略有回落仍处于偏高位置，企业库存累积，甘肃、河北等多省 库存增加。需求端，工业及农业需求均偏弱，农需秋季用量零散，复合肥企业产能利用率低，未 大规模开工，处于需求真空期。出口内外价差较大，虽有第三批配额落地，对国内价格支撑有限。 国内尿素整体供过于求仍明显。交割品现货1540（+20），基本面整体偏空； • 2. 基差： UR2601合约基差-57，升贴水比例-3.7%，偏空； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存185.9万吨（+17.4），偏空； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线向下，收盘价位于20日线下，偏空； • 5. 主力持仓：UR主力持仓净空，增空，偏空； • 6. 预期：尿素主力合约盘面震荡偏弱，国际尿素价格偏强但对国内价格支撑有限 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-10-15甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 甲醇2601： 1、基本面：国内甲醇市场区域表现。内地走跌明显，虽内蒙烯烃继续外采，但节后企业库存充裕下，供方让利出货。 且港口部分进口货源倒流内地，销区心态偏空。港口受制裁消息面带动，且期货尾盘上扬带动，港口现货小幅坚挺，基 差维持走强趋势。短期国内市场预期将窄幅调整；中性 2、基差：江苏甲醇现货价为2305元/吨，01合约基差31，现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：截至2025年10月9日，华东、华南港口甲醇社会库存总量为127.30万吨，较节前累库0.49万吨；沿海地区（江 苏、浙江和华南地区）甲醇整体可流通货源增加5.99万吨至94.05万吨；偏空 4、盘面：20日线向下，价格在均线下方；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持 ...

2025-10-15原油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 原油2511： 1.基本面：美国贸易代表格里尔表示，是否在11月1日或更早实施对中国出口商品加征100%关税，取决 于中国方面的态度，他告诉CNBC，美中两国官员周一在华盛顿举行了工作级会谈，他认为仍有机会解 决有关关键矿产限制的争端；IEA预测，由于OPEC+产油国和竞争对手提高产量，而需求仍然低迷，明 年世界石油市场将面临多达400万桶/日的更大过剩。OPEC+发布的月度报告没有IEA的观点那么悲观。 报告称，随着OPEC+联盟继续按计划增产，2026年石油市场的供应缺口将缩小；中性 2.基差：10月14日，阿曼原油现货价为64.25/桶，卡塔尔海洋原油现货价为62 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Trade - based expectations indicate that the arrival of low - sulfur fuel oil arbitrage cargoes from the West in October will increase compared to September, potentially suppressing the market fundamentals in the short term. However, after the long - holiday in the North Asian market, the downstream low - sulfur fuel oil inquiry volume is expected to rise. - Overnight frictions between China and the US, along with institutional expectations of supply surplus in the fourth quarter, will continue to put pressure on the fuel oil market. In the short term, fuel oil will remain weak. The FU2601 will trade in the range of 2650 - 2700, and the LU2512 will trade in the range of 3130 - 3190. [3] Summary According to the Catalog 1. Daily Prompt - The fundamental situation shows that the expected increase in low - sulfur fuel oil imports may suppress the market, but post - holiday demand is expected to rise; the basis indicates that the spot is at a discount to the futures; Singapore's fuel oil inventory decreased by 164 million barrels in the week of October 8; the price is below the 20 - day line; high - sulfur main positions are short and increasing, while low - sulfur main positions are long and increasing. - The expected short - term trend is weak, with FU2601 in the 2650 - 2700 range and LU2512 in the 3130 - 3190 range. [3] 2. Multi - Short Focus - Bullish factors: Singapore's fuel oil inventory decreased by 164 million barrels in the week of October 8; low - sulfur main positions are long and increasing. - Bearish factors: The expected increase in low - sulfur fuel oil imports from the West in October; the spot is at a discount to the futures; the price is below the 20 - day line; high - sulfur main positions are short and increasing; demand optimism remains to be verified; potential increase in sanctions against Russia; possible extension of Russia's fuel oil export restrictions. - Market drivers: Supply is affected by geopolitical risks, and demand is neutral. [3][4] 3. Fundamental Data (1) Futures Quotes | Variety | FU Main Contract Futures Price | LU Main Contract Futures Price | FU Basis | LU Basis | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 2730 | 3240 | 22 | 12 | | Current Value | 2714 | 3216 | - 27 | - 32 | | Change | - 16 | - 24 | - 49 | - 44 | | Percentage Change | - 0.59% | - 0.74% | - 220.05% | - 357.93% | [5] (2) Spot Quotes | Variety | Zhoushan High - Sulfur Fuel Oil | Zhoushan Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil | Singapore High - Sulfur Fuel Oil | Singapore Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil | Middle East High - Sulfur Fuel Oil | Singapore Diesel | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 469.00 | 480.00 | 374.55 | 442.50 | 351.22 | 639.81 | | Current Value | 462.00 | 473.00 | 362.41 | 432.16 | 340.18 | 630.10 | | Change | - 7.00 | - 7.00 | - 12.14 | - 10.34 | - 11.04 | - 9.72 | | Percentage Change | - 1.49% | - 1.46% | - 3.24% | - 2.34% | - 3.14% | - 1.52% | [6] 4. Spread Data No detailed spread data analysis is provided, only a chart of high - low sulfur futures spreads is shown. [12] 5. Inventory Data - Singapore fuel oil inventory on October 8 was 2061.9 million barrels, a decrease of 164 million barrels compared to the previous period. The inventory data from July 30 to October 8 is also presented, showing fluctuations. [3][8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report is bearish on the soda ash industry. The macro - negative factors combined with the weak fundamentals of soda ash are expected to lead to a short - term weak and fluctuating trend. The supply of soda ash is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, and inventory is at a high level compared to the same period, with the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry not effectively improved [2][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of soda ash futures decreased by 1.04% to 1234 yuan/ton, the low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe decreased by 0.85% to 1160 yuan/ton, and the main basis decreased by 3.90% to - 74 yuan [6]. 3.2 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1160 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [11]. 3.3 Fundamentals - Supply - Production profit: The profit of heavy soda ash in North China's ammonia - soda process was - 89.25 yuan/ton, and that in East China's co - production process was - 114.50 yuan/ton, showing a recovery from the historical low [14]. -开工 rate and output: The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash was 88.41%, and the weekly output was 77.08 tons, with heavy soda ash at 42.87 tons, at a historical high [17][19]. - Capacity changes: From 2023 to 2025, there were significant expansions in soda ash capacity, with 640 tons in 2023, 180 tons in 2024, and a planned 750 tons in 2025 (100 tons actually put into production) [21]. 3.4 Fundamentals - Demand - Sales ratio: The weekly sales ratio of soda ash was 92.23% [24]. - Downstream demand: The daily melting volume of national float glass was 16.13 tons, with an operating rate of 76.01% stabilizing; the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass continued to decline [27]. 3.5 Fundamentals - Inventory - The national soda ash factory inventory was 165.98 tons, an increase of 0.50% from the previous week, and the inventory was above the 5 - year average [34]. 3.6 Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provided the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective capacity, output, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, output growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [35]. 3.7 Influencing Factors - Bullish factors: During the peak maintenance period this year, soda ash production is expected to decline [3]. - Bearish factors: High supply of soda ash, declining terminal demand, high inventory, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For gold, tariff concerns resurfaced, and the risk appetite significantly cooled the previous day. The gold price declined briefly but rebounded at night. The upward trend of gold price remains unchanged due to tariff concerns and interest - rate cut expectations. The premium of Shanghai gold expanded to -5 yuan/gram, and the domestic sentiment increased notably [4]. - For silver, tariff concerns resurfaced, and the risk appetite cooled the previous day. The silver price dropped briefly and reached an important psychological pressure level, leading to profit - taking by funds. The upward trend of silver price remains unchanged due to tariff concerns and interest - rate cut expectations. The premium of Shanghai silver expanded significantly to -250 yuan/gram, and the domestic sentiment for silver price recovered notably [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1前日回顾 - **Gold**: The U.S. three major stock indexes closed mixed, European three major stock indexes closed mixed, U.S. Treasury yields fell collectively (10 - year Treasury yield dropped 2.50 basis points to 4.028%), the dollar index fell 0.21% to 99.05, the offshore RMB depreciated slightly against the dollar to 7.14, and COMEX gold futures rose 0.64% to $4159.60 per ounce. The basis was -3.97 with the spot at a discount to the futures. The inventory of gold futures increased by 1455 kilograms to 72183 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the k - line was above the 20 - day moving average. The main net position was long, and the main long positions decreased [4][5]. - **Silver**: The U.S. three major stock indexes rose across the board, European three major stock indexes closed slightly higher, U.S. Treasury yields fell collectively (10 - year Treasury yield dropped 6.37 basis points to 4.053%), the dollar index rose 0.43% to 99.26, the offshore RMB depreciated slightly against the dollar to 7.1478, and COMEX silver futures fell 0.17% to $50.35 per ounce. The basis was -41 with the spot at a discount to the futures. The inventory of Shanghai silver futures decreased by 61384 kilograms to 1063072 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the k - line was above the 20 - day moving average. The main net position was long, and the main long positions increased [6]. 3.2每日提示 - **Gold**: The expected events to watch include China's CPI and PPI, whether the U.S. government shutdown ends, the Fed's Beige Book, and intensive speeches by Fed and ECB members. Despite the resurfaced tariff concerns, the risk appetite cooled the previous day. The gold price declined briefly and then rebounded at night. The upward trend of gold price remains unchanged due to tariff concerns and interest - rate cut expectations [4]. - **Silver**: The expected events to watch are the same as for gold. The silver price dropped briefly and reached an important psychological pressure level, leading to profit - taking by funds. The upward trend of silver price remains unchanged due to tariff concerns and interest - rate cut expectations [6]. 3.3今日关注 The events to watch on this day include: at 07:30, the speech of Sarah Hunter, Assistant Governor for Economic Affairs of the Reserve Bank of Australia; at 09:30, China's September CPI and PPI; the time - undetermined release of India's September imports, exports, and trade balance; at 15:40, the speech of de Guindos, Vice - President of the European Central Bank; at 16:00, the speech of Ramsden, Deputy Governor of the Bank of England; at 17:00, the euro - zone's August industrial output; possibly at 20:30, the U.S. October New York Fed Manufacturing Index; at 21:30, the speech of Fed Governor Milan at the "Invest in America Forum"; at 21:45, the speeches of ECB Governing Council members Donnelly and Rehn; at 23:45, the speech of Breeden, Deputy Governor of the Bank of England; at 23:50, the speech of Villeroy, ECB Governing Council member and Governor of the Bank of France; at 00:15, Donnelly's participation in a panel discussion at the IIF Annual Meeting; at 00:30 the next day, the speech of Fed Governor Milan at the Nomura Research Forum; at 01:00 the next day, Fed Governor Waller's talk on artificial intelligence (AI); at 02:00 the next day, the release of the Fed's Beige Book and the speech of Breeden, Deputy Governor of the Bank of England; at 02:30 the next day, the speech of Jeff Schmid, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City (2025 FOMC voter); at 03:45 the next day, the participation of Michele Bullock, Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, in a fireside chat during the Nomura Research Forum; at 05:50 the next day, the speech of Christopher Kent, Assistant Governor for Financial Markets of the Reserve Bank of Australia [15]. 3.4基本面数据 - **Gold**: The fundamental factors are a mix of neutral, bearish, and bullish. The basis shows the spot at a discount to the futures (neutral), the inventory increase is bearish, the position of the k - line relative to the 20 - day moving average is bullish, and the main net long position is bullish [4][5]. - **Silver**: The fundamental factors are also a mix. The basis shows the spot at a discount to the futures (neutral), the inventory change is neutral, the position of the k - line relative to the 20 - day moving average is bullish, and the main net long position is bullish [6]. 3.5持仓数据 - **Gold**: The main net position is long, and the main long positions decreased. The long positions of the top 20 holders in Shanghai gold decreased by 4.28% (from 220,070 to 210,658), the short positions increased by 0.33% (from 78,569 to 78,831), and the net position decreased by 6.84% (from 141,501 to 131,827) [5][31]. - **Silver**: The main net position is long, and the main long positions increased. The long positions of the top 20 holders in Shanghai silver decreased by 3.22% (from 368,167 to 356,307), the short positions decreased by 1.81% (from 268,339 to 263,493), and the net position decreased by 7.03% (from 99,828 to 92,814) [6][34].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 菜粕早报 2025-10-15 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 5 持仓数据 ✸菜粕观点和策略 菜粕RM2601：2360至2420区间震荡 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 1.基本面：菜粕震荡回落，豆粕带动和技术性震荡整理，市场回归震荡等待加拿大油菜籽进 口反倾销裁定尚待最终结果。菜粕现货需求短期维持旺季，库存维持低位支撑盘面，但 国庆后菜粕需求逐渐进入淡季和中加贸易磋商仍变数，盘面短期受消息面影响维持震荡。 中性 2.基差：现货2470，基差122，升水期货。偏多 3.库存：菜粕库存1.75万吨，上周1.8万吨，周环比减少2.78%，去年同期2.2万吨，同比减 少20.45%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均线下方且方向向下 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The industrial silicon market is affected by factors such as supply - demand imbalance, with increasing supply and weak demand. The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8390 - 8650 for the 2511 contract. The main logic is the mismatch between production capacity and demand, making the downward trend difficult to reverse [8][13]. - The polysilicon market also shows a situation of supply exceeding demand. Although there is cost support, the overall demand is in a state of decline, but it may rebound later. The 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 49110 - 50870 [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Views Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: Last week, the supply of industrial silicon was 97,000 tons, a 4.30% increase compared to the previous period [8]. - **Demand**: The demand was 82,000 tons. The polysilicon inventory was 240,000 tons, at a high level. The silicone inventory was 55,100 tons, at a low level. The aluminum alloy ingot inventory was 757,000 tons, at a high level. The overall demand was weak [8]. - **Cost**: The production of sample oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang was at a loss of 3,126 yuan/ton, and the cost support increased during the dry season [8]. - **Base Difference**: On October 14, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing in East China was 9,300 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 780 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory was 545,000 tons, a 0.37% increase compared to the previous period. The sample enterprise inventory increased by 3.29%, and the main port inventory remained unchanged [8]. - **Disk Surface**: The MA20 was downward, and the price of the 11 - contract closed below the MA20 [8]. - **Main Force Position**: The net short position of the main force decreased [8]. - **Expectation**: The industrial silicon 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8390 - 8650 [8]. Polysilicon - **Supply**: Last week, the polysilicon output was 31,000 tons, a 0.32% decrease compared to the previous period. The planned output in October is 134,500 tons, a 3.46% increase compared to the previous month [10]. - **Demand**: The silicon wafer production was in a loss state. The battery cell production was also in a loss state, while the component production was profitable. The overall demand was weak [10]. - **Cost**: The average cost of N - type polysilicon was 36,150 yuan/ton, and the production profit was 15,100 yuan/ton [10]. - **Base Difference**: The basis of the N - type dense material was 2,760 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [10]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory was 240,000 tons, a 6.19% increase compared to the previous period [10]. - **Disk Surface**: The MA20 was downward, and the price of the 11 - contract closed below the MA20 [10]. - **Main Force Position**: The main force had a net long position, and the long position decreased [10]. - **Expectation**: The polysilicon 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 49110 - 50870 [10]. 2. Market Overview Industrial Silicon - Futures contracts generally showed a downward trend. For example, the 01 - contract decreased by 2.86% [16]. - The spot prices of some products remained stable, such as the East China non - oxygen - passing 553 silicon [16]. - Inventory data showed different trends, with some inventories increasing and some remaining stable [16]. Polysilicon - Futures contracts generally showed an upward trend. For example, the 01 - contract increased by 2.39% [18]. - The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components showed different trends, with some remaining stable and some changing slightly [18]. - Inventory data showed that the total weekly inventory increased by 6.19% [18]. 3. Price and Inventory Trends Industrial Silicon - The price - basis and delivery product price difference trends showed the relationship between the basis, spot price, and closing price [20]. - The inventory trends of delivery warehouses, ports, and sample enterprises were presented [26]. Polysilicon - The disk price trend showed the price and trading volume changes of the main contract [23]. - The basis trend showed the relationship between the basis, closing price, and spot price [24]. 4. Supply and Demand Balance Industrial Silicon - The weekly supply - demand balance table showed the production, import, export, consumption, and balance of industrial silicon [38]. - The monthly supply - demand balance table showed the actual consumption, export, import, and production of industrial silicon in different months [41]. Polysilicon - The monthly supply - demand balance table showed the consumption, export, import, supply, and balance of polysilicon in different months [65]. 5. Downstream Market Trends Organic Silicon - The DMC price, production, and inventory trends were presented, including the capacity utilization rate, profit - cost trend, and production volume trend [44]. - The price trends of downstream products such as 107 glue, silicone oil, raw rubber, and D4 were presented [46][47]. - The import - export and inventory trends of DMC were presented [51]. Aluminum Alloy - The price, supply, inventory, and production trends were presented, including the price trend of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12, the import - export situation of unforged aluminum alloy, and the production and inventory trends of primary and recycled aluminum alloy ingots [54][57]. - The demand trends in the automotive and wheel - hub markets were presented [58]. Polysilicon - The cost, price, inventory, production, and demand trends were presented, including the industry cost trend, price trend of N - type dense material and N - type recycled material, and the inventory, production, and demand trends of polysilicon [62]. - The trends of silicon wafers, battery cells, photovoltaic components, and photovoltaic accessories were presented, including the price, production, inventory, and import - export trends of each link [68][71][74][77].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-10-15 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 豆粕M2601：2900至2960区间震荡 1.基本面：美豆震荡收跌，市场等待新指引和技术性震荡整理，美豆千点关口附近震荡等待 中美关税谈判后续和美国大豆产区收割天气进一步指引。国内豆粕震荡回落，需求短期 转淡和技术性震荡整理，十月进口大豆到港维持偏高位和现货价格贴水压制盘面，短期 或维持震荡格局。中性 2.基差：现货2890（华东），基差-12，贴水期货。中性 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存118.92万吨，上周125万吨，环比减少4.86%，去年同期122.65万吨， 同比减少3.04%。偏多 4.盘面： ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is characterized by a supply - demand imbalance, with over - supply and weak demand, making it difficult to reverse the downward trend due to capacity mismatch [8][11]. - The 2601 lithium carbonate contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 71,720 - 73,640 [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Fundamentals** - Supply: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 20,635 tons, a 0.58% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average [8]. - Demand: The inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 101,848 tons, a 3.62% week - on - week increase; the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 17,849 tons, a 0.26% week - on - week decrease [8]. - Cost: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate was 73,349 yuan/ton, a 0.07% day - on - day decrease, resulting in a loss of 1,413 yuan/ton; the cost of purchased lithium mica was 75,178 yuan/ton, a 1.21% day - on - day decrease, resulting in a loss of 5,225 yuan/ton. The production cost of the recycling end is generally higher than that of the ore end, with low production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end is 31,477 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [8]. - **Basis**: On October 14, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was 240 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: The smelter inventory was 34,747 tons, a 3.75% week - on - week increase, lower than the historical average; the downstream inventory was 59,765 tons, a 1.85% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average; other inventories were 40,290 tons, a 5.06% week - on - week decrease, lower than the historical average. The total inventory was 134,801 tons, a 1.47% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average [8]. - **Market Chart**: The MA20 was downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below the MA20, showing a bearish signal [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position was net short, with an increase in short positions, showing a bearish signal [8]. - **Expectation**: In September 2025, lithium carbonate production was 87,260 physical tons, and the predicted production for next month is 89,890 physical tons, a 3.01% month - on - month increase. The import volume in September was 20,000 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 22,000 physical tons, a 10.00% month - on - month increase. Demand is expected to strengthen next month, and inventory may be reduced. The CIF price of 6% concentrate decreased on a daily basis, lower than the historical average [8]. 3.2 Market Overview - **Lithium Ore**: The price of lithium spodumene (6%) decreased by 0.12% to 828 US dollars/ton; the price of lithium mica concentrate (2.5%) decreased by 2.27% to 1,725 yuan/ton [13]. - **Lithium Salt**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.14% to 73,000 yuan/ton; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.14% to 70,750 yuan/ton [13]. - **Positive Materials and Lithium Batteries**: The prices of some positive materials and lithium batteries showed different degrees of increase or remained stable [13]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - **Price**: The price of lithium ore has shown certain fluctuations over time [22]. - **Production**: The production of lithium spodumene mines and lithium mica in China has changed year - by - year [22]. - **Import**: The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate has fluctuated, with a significant decrease in imports from Australia [15][22]. - **Self - Sufficiency Rate**: The self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore has shown different trends for lithium spodumene, lithium ore, and lithium mica [22]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory of lithium ore held by port traders and for sale has changed over the years [22]. 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - **Production**: The weekly and monthly production of lithium carbonate from different sources (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt lake, recycling) has changed over time [28]. - **Import**: The monthly import volume of lithium carbonate from different countries (Chile, Argentina) and the total import volume have changed [28]. - **Recycling**: The monthly recycling volume of waste lithium batteries has changed [31]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - **Capacity Utilization**: The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic lithium hydroxide has changed over the years [37]. - **Production**: The production of lithium hydroxide from different sources (causticization, smelting) and the total production have changed [37]. - **Export**: The export volume of Chinese lithium hydroxide has changed over the years [37]. 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost - Profit - **Lithium Spodumene and Lithium Mica**: The production cost and profit of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica concentrate have changed over time [42]. - **Recycling**: The cost and profit of producing lithium carbonate from recycled materials (phosphate - iron lithium battery black powder, etc.) have changed [44]. - **Other**: The profit of purifying industrial - grade lithium carbonate, the profit of carbonizing lithium hydroxide into lithium carbonate, etc., have changed [44]. 3.7 Inventory - **Lithium Carbonate**: The weekly and monthly inventory of lithium carbonate in smelters, downstream, and other aspects has changed [49]. - **Lithium Hydroxide**: The monthly inventory of lithium hydroxide in smelters and downstream has changed [49]. 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - **Price**: The price of lithium batteries has changed over time [53]. - **Production**: The monthly production of lithium battery cells (power ternary, power lithium iron phosphate, energy storage) has changed [53]. - **Loading**: The monthly loading volume of power batteries (lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials) has changed [53]. - **Export**: The export volume of lithium batteries has changed over the years [53]. 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - **Price**: The price of ternary precursors has changed over time [58]. - **Cost - Profit**: The cost and profit of ternary precursors have changed [58]. - **Production**: The monthly production of ternary precursors has changed [58]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of ternary precursors has changed monthly [61]. 3.10 Demand - Ternary Material - **Price**: The price of ternary materials has changed over time [64]. - **Cost - Profit**: The cost and profit of ternary materials have changed [64]. - **Production**: The production of ternary materials has changed [64]. - **Export - Import**: The export and import volumes of ternary materials have changed [66]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory of ternary materials has changed [66]. 3.11 Demand - Phosphate Iron/Phosphate Iron Lithium - **Price**: The price of phosphate iron and phosphate iron lithium has changed over time [68]. - **Cost - Profit**: The cost and profit of phosphate iron lithium have changed [68]. - **Production**: The monthly production of phosphate iron and phosphate iron lithium has changed [71]. - **Export**: The monthly export volume of phosphate iron lithium has changed [71]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory of phosphate iron lithium has changed [73]. 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - **Production**: The production of new energy vehicles (plug - in hybrid, pure - electric) has changed over time [76]. - **Export**: The export volume of new energy vehicles has changed [76]. - **Sales**: The sales volume of new energy vehicles (plug - in hybrid, pure - electric) and the total sales volume have changed [76]. - **Penetration Rate**: The sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles has changed [77]. - **Inventory Index**: The monthly dealer inventory warning index and inventory index of new energy vehicles have changed [80].