1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Alumina is expected to be volatile and weak in the short - term and short positions on rallies are recommended in the medium - to - long - term due to eased supply tightness of bauxite, weakened cost support, and limited demand growth [8]. - Electrolytic aluminum may fall from high levels and then maintain a volatile trend in the short - term, with attention on the pressure at the 20,500 level, as production capacity remains high, demand has not significantly recovered, and social inventory is extremely low [8]. - ADC12 aluminum alloy is likely to be volatile in the short - term and short positions on rallies are suggested in the medium - to - long - term, considering the supply - strong and demand - weak pattern, high inventory, and the impact of US tariff policies [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 View and Strategy - Alumina: The overall supply tightness of bauxite in China is gradually alleviated by imported ores, and the cost support for alumina is weakening. It is in a situation of strong supply and demand, but demand growth is limited, so it may be volatile and weak in the short - term and suitable for shorting on rallies in the long - term [8]. - Electrolytic aluminum: Production capacity is at an extremely high level, but total demand has not significantly recovered. Social inventory is decreasing and at a very low level. Affected by positive signals from China - US talks, the price once rose to 20,500. It may fall from high levels and then maintain a volatile trend [8]. - Aluminum alloy: The supply - strong and demand - weak pattern of ADC12 is gradually forming, with high inventory and demand suppressed by US tariff policies. Only wheel hub export orders are good. The industry is in a loss state, providing some support for prices. It may be volatile in the short - term and suitable for shorting on rallies in the long - term [8]. 3.2 Market Review - Due to positive signals from China - US talks, LME aluminum first rose and then fell, with a 2.1% increase compared to last week, and SHFE aluminum continued to rise, with a 1.84% increase. Alumina was weakly volatile, with a 1.69% decline [11][16]. 3.3 Key Data Tracking of Alumina and Electrolytic Aluminum - Bauxite: Domestic bauxite prices remained stable, with prices in Guizhou at 500 yuan/ton, Shanxi at 530 yuan/ton, and Guangxi at 450 yuan/ton. Overseas, the CIF price of Guinean bauxite remained at $80/ton, and that of Australian bauxite fell to $69/ton. Inventory continued to accumulate, reaching 26.43 million tons, a 300,000 - ton increase [21]. - Alumina: Some regional prices fell slightly. The import profit and loss recovered to around 12 yuan/ton, and future imports will remain weak. Production cost decreased to 2,845 yuan/ton, and production profit rose to around 450 yuan/ton. The overall operating rate increased slightly, and inventory continued to accumulate but remained at the lowest level in the past four years [26][31][36]. - Electrolytic aluminum: Aluminum prices rose, and spot premiums and discounts in various regions fell significantly. Aluminum rod inventory continued to decline, reaching 141,000 tons. SHFE and LME inventories were at extremely low levels [44][49][52]. 3.4 Key Data Tracking of Aluminum Alloy - ADC12: Spot prices in various regions mainly rose to 19,600 yuan/ton. In May, domestic scrap aluminum shipments reached 59,010 tons, at a very high level in the past five years, and raw material supply was sufficient. From January to April, the cumulative import volume of aluminum scrap was 697,000 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 6.66% but a continuous slowdown in growth. In May, the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy was 41.32%, and that of recycled aluminum alloy was 38.04%. The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots reached 513,500 tons, at a very high level in the past five years. The average cost of ADC12 in May fell to 19,537 yuan/ton, and production profit fell to 173 yuan/ton. Social inventory and in - factory inventory of aluminum alloy ingots decreased slightly, with the former at a medium level and the latter at the highest level in the past three years [57][61][65]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Alumina**: The supply - side impact of Guinea's cancellation of mining licenses is limited, with overseas ore supply strengthening and domestic bauxite supply becoming less tight. Demand growth is limited as the utilization rate of electrolytic aluminum capacity is over 96%. With low inventory providing some support at the bottom, alumina is expected to remain in a weak oscillating state in June, with a reference operating range of [2800 - 3400], and a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended [8]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Domestic electrolytic aluminum capacity is running at a high level, and the capacity utilization rate has exceeded 96%. Although downstream consumption has rebounded to some extent under policy stimulation, exports are still weak. With the continuous decline of social inventory to a six - year low, electrolytic aluminum is expected to oscillate in June, with a reference operating range of [19500 - 20300] [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Viewpoints and Strategies - **Alumina**: Supply - side disturbances in Guinea have limited impact, overseas supply is strong, and demand growth is limited. Low inventory provides support, but overall, it will be in a weak oscillating state in June [8]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: High - level capacity operation, slow demand recovery, and extremely low inventory support prices, with an expected oscillating trend in June [8]. 3.2 Review of Market Performance - As of May 30, LME aluminum showed a strong oscillation, rising 2.24% compared to April. SHFE aluminum rebounded after hitting the bottom and then oscillated, rising 1.08% compared to April. Alumina first rose and then fell, rising 8.76% compared to April [12][16]. 3.3 Supply Situation of the Aluminum Industry Chain - **Domestic Bauxite**: In April, the output was 544000 tons, a decrease of 31000 tons from the previous month, remaining at a relatively low level in the past four years. It is expected to remain at an extremely low level [21]. - **Overseas Bauxite**: In April, the total bauxite shipment volume increased slightly compared to the previous month, with an increase of 124400 tons in shipments from Guinea to 822410 tons and a decrease of 66440 tons in shipments from Australia to 285560 tons [26]. - **Bauxite Imports**: In March, the import volume was 20.684 million tons, a significant increase of 4.2183 million tons from the previous month, remaining at the highest level in the past five years. It is expected to continue to rise [30]. - **Alumina Production**: In April, the production capacity utilization rates in major production areas mostly declined, and the output was 7.225 million tons, a decrease of 224000 tons from the previous month, but still at the highest level in the past six years [34]. - **Alumina Imports**: From April to mid - May, the import profit and loss was stable at around - 260 yuan/ton. The net import volume remained at a low level, and the net export state will continue [39]. - **Costs**: By May 23, the alumina production cost dropped to 2831.8 yuan/ton, and the profit was about 280 yuan/ton. In April, the electrolytic aluminum production cost was 14737 yuan/ton, and the profit was 3731 yuan/ton [43]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: In April, the capacity utilization rate rose slightly to 96.73%, and the output was 3.6205 million tons, a slight decrease of 108300 tons from the previous month, but an increase of 3.21% year - on - year, remaining at the highest level in the past six years [48]. - **Aluminum Rod Production**: In April, the operating rate was 58.16%, remaining at an extremely high level in the past five years, and the output was 1.4885 million tons, remaining at the highest level in the past three years [53]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Trade**: In April, the net import volume was - 251600 tons, an increase of 17.46% year - on - year, maintaining the net export state [57]. 3.4 Downstream and Terminal Performance of the Aluminum Industry - **Downstream Operating Rates**: In April, affected by policies, the operating rates of various downstream sectors increased to varying degrees. The aluminum profile operating rate rose to 50.59%, the aluminum rod operating rate rose to 62%, and the aluminum plate, strip, and foil operating rate decreased slightly to 73.31% [62]. - **Aluminum Product Exports**: Due to domestic and overseas policies, the overall export of aluminum products slowed down. From January to April, the cumulative export volume of aluminum profiles was 267400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19.15%; the cumulative export volume of aluminum cables was 82800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.1%; the cumulative export volume of aluminum plates and strips was 983000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.77%; and the cumulative export volume of aluminum foil was 457300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.55% [66][71]. - **Real Estate**: From January to April, the cumulative real - estate development investment decreased by 10.3% year - on - year, the new construction area decreased by 23.8% year - on - year, and the completed area decreased by 16.9% year - on - year [76]. - **Automobiles**: In April, the production was 2.6188 million vehicles, the sales were 2.5896 million vehicles, and the production - to - sales ratio was 0.9889, a slight increase from March [80]. - **White Goods**: From January to April, the cumulative refrigerator production decreased by 0.7% year - on - year, the cumulative washing machine production increased by 10.9% year - on - year, and the cumulative air - conditioner production increased by 7.2% year - on - year [84]. 3.5 Aluminum Industry Inventory - **Bauxite**: As of May 23, the port inventory was 25.46 million tons, an increase of 88000 tons compared to April, rising to a relatively low level in the past five years [89]. - **Alumina**: As of May 30, the inventory was 3.794 million tons, a decrease of 5.01% compared to April, remaining at the lowest level in the past four years [93]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: As of May 30, the social inventory was 51900 tons, a decrease of 14500 tons compared to the end of April, at the lowest level in the past six years [97]. - **Exchange Inventories**: As of May 30, the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 17445 tons compared to April, and the LME inventory decreased by 43050 tons compared to April, both at the lowest levels in the past six years [102].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The demand expectation for steel products is weak, the cost - side support is shifting down, and the short - term macro - policy expectation is limited. It is expected that steel prices will fluctuate weakly in June [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Viewpoint Strategy - **Core Logic**: In May, China's manufacturing PMI was below the boom - bust line; the Fed's pace of interest rate cuts slowed down, and Trump increased the steel import tariff to 50%, which had limited impact on China's steel exports. On the fundamental side, in terms of supply, due to the profit margins of steel mills, the hot metal output decreased slightly but remained at a high level, and the output of rebar and hot - rolled coils decreased last week. On the demand side, as the south entered the rainy season, the demand continued to be weak; the profit of hot - rolled coils was less than that of rebar, and the demand change needed to be observed after the tariff policy eased. In terms of inventory, the factory and social inventories continued to be destocked, and suppliers' willingness to take delivery was weak. Coke still had a downward adjustment expectation, and its support for the cost of finished products should be continuously monitored [13]. - **Spot and Futures**: In May, the spot price of steel products showed a fluctuating downward trend. For futures, the closing price of the rebar 10 - contract on May 30 was 2,961 yuan/ton, a decrease of 135 yuan/ton or 4.36% compared with the end of April. The basis was 159 yuan/ton, an increase of 35 yuan/ton compared with the end of April. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil 10 - contract was 3,076 yuan/ton, a decrease of 128 yuan/ton or 4.00% compared with the end of April. The basis was 94 yuan/ton, an increase of 58 yuan/ton compared with the end of April. In May, the open interest of rebar and hot - rolled coils increased, and the open interest was negatively correlated with the futures price. The futures price curves of rebar and hot - rolled coils changed from Contango to Back structure [13]. - **Spread**: As of May 30, the rebar - iron ore spread (main contract) was 2,259 yuan/ton, a decrease of 133.5 yuan/ton compared with the end of April; the rebar - iron ore ratio was 4.22, a decrease of 0.18 compared with the end of April. The hot - rolled coil - rebar spread (10 - contract) was 115 yuan/ton, an increase of 7 yuan/ton compared with the end of April; the spot hot - rolled coil - rebar spread in Shanghai was 50 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton compared with the end of April [13]. - **Supply**: In May, steel mills had strong production enthusiasm, the hot metal cost decreased, and the output remained at a high level of 2.4 million tons per day. The hot metal output of 247 steel enterprises in May remained above 2.4 million tons per day, and the blast furnace operating rate remained above 80%. The rebar output in May was about 2.25 million tons per week, a decrease compared with April. The hot - rolled coil output fluctuated in May, with a minimum of 3.06 million tons per week and a maximum of 3.2 million tons per week. As of May 30, the含税 cost of hot metal in Hebei was 2,354 yuan/ton, a decrease of 63 yuan/ton compared with the beginning of the month [13]. - **Demand**: The demand for rebar in the housing construction sector was limited, and the infrastructure sector provided some support; the demand for coils was weak. In May, the apparent demand for rebar decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. There was a small increase in the apparent demand for rebar before the May Day holiday due to inventory replenishment, but the demand was average after the holiday. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coils in May fluctuated around 3.2 million tons per week, basically the same as in previous years. The profitability ratio of 247 steel enterprises in May was close to 60%, and there was still a high profit margin in steel production. The cement delivery volume in May fluctuated around 3.3 - 3.6 million tons per week, at a low level compared with the same period last year. The direct supply volume of infrastructure cement was around 1.9 million tons per week, basically the same as last year. In May, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index was 49.5%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, but still below the boom - bust line [13]. - **Inventory**: Rebar and hot - rolled coils continued to be destocked, and the inventory pressure was small. As of the week of May 30, the factory inventory of rebar was 1.8646 million tons, a decrease of 72,700 tons compared with the end of April; the social inventory was 3.9459 million tons, a decrease of 1.1401 million tons compared with the end of April. The factory inventory of hot - rolled coils was 750,200 tons, a decrease of 98,100 tons compared with the end of April; the social inventory was 2.5779 million tons, a decrease of 250,700 tons compared with the end of April [13]. - **Strategy**: It is expected that steel products will maintain a weakly fluctuating trend. The range of the rebar 10 - contract is [2,900 - 3,050], and the range of the hot - rolled coil 10 - contract is [3,050 - 3,200]. Be cautious about chasing high prices [13]. 3.2 Macro Level - International news: Trump increased tariffs on steel, but China's steel exports to the US were low, so the overall impact was limited; the Fed was more cautious about interest rate cuts, and the pace might slow down. The number of initial jobless claims in the US increased to the highest level since November 2021 [15][16]. - Domestic news: In May, both the manufacturing PMI indices of the National Bureau of Statistics and Caixin were below the boom - bust line, indicating a slowdown in manufacturing prosperity. The local bond issuance rhythm accelerated this year, but some funds were used for debt resolution and storage. Overall, infrastructure provided some support, but the increment was limited [15][16]. 3.3 Spot and Basis - **Steel Price Trend**: In May, the spot price of steel products showed a fluctuating downward trend. After inventory replenishment before the May Day holiday, the steel price stabilized. After the news of the substantial progress in the China - US talks on the 12th was announced, the market sentiment warmed up. The price of rebar in Shanghai reached a maximum of 3,250 yuan/ton, and the price of hot - rolled coils rose to 3,320 yuan/ton. However, limited by the weak downstream demand for steel, the price of finished products continued to fall. In terms of rebar, the price in the southern region decreased significantly due to the rainy season; the decline of hot - rolled coils was smaller than that of rebar, and the downstream demand was relatively strong [18]. - **Rebar Futures**: The closing price of the rebar 10 - contract on May 30 was 2,961 yuan/ton, a decrease of 135 yuan/ton or 4.36% compared with the end of April. After the May Day holiday, the futures market showed a weak and fluctuating trend. The central bank's small - scale interest rate cut on May 7 had limited stimulus to the market. After the substantial progress in the China - US talks on May 12, the subsequent tariff policy stimulated the market to warm up, and the futures price continued to rise until the 15th, but did not exceed 3,140 yuan/ton. Then the price continued to decline, and the closing price on the 27th fell below 3,000 yuan/ton. Although the rebar inventory remained at a low level, the price continued to fall due to the weak terminal housing construction and limited infrastructure growth. At the end of the month, the basis was 159 yuan/ton, an increase of 35 yuan/ton compared with the end of April [20]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil Futures**: As of May 30, the closing price of the hot - rolled coil 10 - contract was 3,076 yuan/ton, a decrease of 128 yuan/ton or 4.00% compared with the end of April. The trend of hot - rolled coil futures in May was similar to that of rebar, showing a "first rise and then fall" trend. Due to the easing of the tariff policy, the closing price reached a monthly high of 3,267 yuan/ton on the 14th, and then the price continued to fall. The difference in the fundamentals of hot - rolled coils from rebar was that the downstream demand was relatively strong. The "Two New" policies stimulated the demand for coils in equipment, home appliances, etc. However, under the previous "rush to export" situation, the order volume support weakened, and the cold - rolled coil had been in a loss for a long time. The subsequent demand for coils needed to be observed. The spot price of hot - rolled coils was more stable than the futures price, and the basis of hot - rolled coils strengthened in May. At the end of May, the basis of hot - rolled coils was 94 yuan/ton, an increase of 58 yuan/ton compared with the end of April [31]. 3.4 Spread - **Rebar - Iron Ore Ratio**: As of May 30, the rebar - iron ore difference (main contract) was 2,259 yuan/ton, a decrease of 133.5 yuan/ton compared with the end of April; the rebar - iron ore ratio was 4.22, a decrease of 0.18 compared with the end of April. In May, the decline of the main contract of iron ore was 0.21%, so the rebar - iron ore ratio decreased slightly. From the fundamental perspective, the hot metal output in May remained above 2.4 million tons per week, so the demand for iron ore was not weak. In terms of inventory, steel mills maintained low inventory and mainly purchased on demand; due to the high hot metal output, the port inventory continued to be slightly destocked, and the overall inventory pressure was small. Overall, the fundamentals of iron ore in the black sector were stronger than those of steel and coal. Currently, the rebar - iron ore ratio was at a low level in the same period of previous years, and there was still a profit margin for steel mills. The arbitrage opportunity of the rebar - iron ore ratio needed to be observed [44]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil - Rebar Spread**: As of May 30, the hot - rolled coil - rebar difference (10 - contract) was 115 yuan/ton, an increase of 7 yuan/ton compared with the end of April; the spot hot - rolled coil - rebar difference in Shanghai was 50 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton compared with the end of April. In May, the fluctuation of the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread was limited, mainly because the demand for finished products was weak. In the building materials sector, due to the rainy season in the south, the investment in housing construction continued to decline, and the infrastructure increment was limited, so the demand for building materials was still weak. In the coil sector, the demand was limited after the previous "rush to export". From the manufacturing PMI index, the new order index was below 50% for two consecutive months, and the downstream replenishment willingness was limited. Currently, the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread was at an average level, and the arbitrage opportunity was limited. It was recommended to wait and see [47]. 3.5 Supply - **Overall Steel Output**: In May, the weekly output of the five major steel products was above 8.6 million tons, a decrease compared with the same period last year. It was expected that some hot metal flowed to products other than the five major steel products. Due to Vietnam's anti - dumping on China's hot - rolled coil exports, the export of steel billets and bars was strong, and some hot metal flowed to the steel billet direction [51][52]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil Output**: The rebar output in May was about 2.25 million tons per week, a decrease compared with April and a slight year - on - year decrease. The hot - rolled coil output fluctuated in May, with a minimum of 3.06 million tons per week and a maximum of 3.2 million tons per week [53]. - **Regional Rebar Output**: In May, the rebar output in the East China region gradually decreased. As of the last week of May, the rebar output was 986,700 tons, a decrease of 65,100 tons compared with the beginning of the month. The weekly output in the South region continued to decline, and the output in the last week of May was 759,400 tons, a decrease of 56,700 tons compared with the beginning of the month. The rebar output in the North China region reached a peak and then decreased. The output in the fourth week of May was 530,600 tons, at a high level, but the output in the last week of May was 509,000 tons [58]. - **Long - and Short - Flow Rebar Output**: The long - flow rebar output remained basically the same, and the short - flow output decreased. Due to the existing orders of steel mills and the decrease in the cost of furnace materials, the profit of blast furnace - produced rebar remained high, and the long - flow output remained at a high level. However, in the electric furnace sector, due to the continuous weakening of the finished product price and the relatively stable scrap steel price, the profit of electric furnaces in the East China region continued to decline, and there was a small loss in valley - electricity production at the end of the month, resulting in a decrease in electric furnace output [62]. - **Hot Metal Output and Blast Furnace Operation**: The hot metal output of 247 steel enterprises remained at a high level of 2.4 million tons per day. As of the week of May 30, the daily average hot metal output was 2.4191 million tons, a decrease of 35,100 tons per day compared with the beginning of the month and an increase of 60,800 tons per day compared with the same period last year. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel enterprises was 83.87%, a decrease of 0.46% compared with the beginning of the month. In the week of May 30, 4 blast furnaces were restarted, and 2 were under maintenance [65]. - **Electric Furnace Operation and Iron - Scrap Difference**: The operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces increased. The scrap steel consumption this week was 254,500 tons, an increase of 72,100 tons per week compared with the beginning of the month, but a decrease compared with the previous week. The iron - scrap difference continued to be negative. As of May 30, the含税 cost of hot metal in Hebei was 2,354 yuan/ton, a decrease of 63 yuan/ton compared with the beginning of the month; the iron - scrap difference at the end of May was - 18 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton compared with the beginning of the month [67][68]. 3.6 Demand - **Building Materials and Hot - Rolled Coil Demand**: In May, the apparent demand for rebar decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. There was a small increase in the apparent demand for rebar before the May Day holiday due to inventory replenishment, but the demand was average after the holiday. The real estate investment and sales data were still weak. Although the infrastructure bond issuance speed was fast, most of the funds were used for debt resolution, so the increment in steel demand was limited. Due to the rainy season in the south, the demand for building materials was still weak. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coils in May fluctuated around 3.2 million tons per week, basically the same as in previous years. The downstream demand for hot - rolled coils was relatively strong due to the continuous subsidy of the "Two New" policies, the increase in shipbuilding orders, but the increase in cold - rolled coil demand was limited. Currently, with the easing of the tariff policy, the demand for hot - rolled coils needed to be observed [72]. - **Steel Mill Profitability**: The profitability ratio of 247 steel enterprises in May was close to 60%, and there was still a high profit margin in steel production. Steel mills controlled the production rhythm, with extremely low finished product inventory to ease the supply - demand contradiction in the case of expected weak demand, and mainly purchased raw materials on demand, so it was difficult for the prices of iron ore and coal to rise [75]. - **Profit of Different Steel Products**: The profit of blast furnace - produced rebar was relatively high in May. As of May 30, the profit of blast furnace - produced rebar was 90 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18 yuan/ton compared with the beginning of the month. In May, the profit of blast furnace - produced rebar remained around 100 yuan/ton. The decline of rebar and steel billet prices this month was about 100 yuan/ton, and the price difference between them remained at about 300 yuan/ton. The valley - electricity profit in May

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For oils, it is expected that the global soybean supply will remain loose in the 2025/26 season. Although the planting area and output of US soybeans will decrease, Brazil's soybean output may reach a record high. Currently, the weather in the main soybean - growing areas in the US is good, and the planting progress is fast. In the domestic market, a large amount of soybeans will arrive at ports, and the weekly soybean crushing volume will exceed 2 million tons, leading to a gradual build - up of soybean oil inventory. The CBOT soybean and soybean oil prices may fluctuate weakly. Palm oil is in the seasonal production - increasing period, but the inventory build - up in Malaysia in May is expected to be small due to improved export demand. The domestic palm oil inventory is at a low level, and the import volume is expected to increase gradually. Rapeseed prices in the Intercontinental Exchange are rising, providing support for rapeseed oil, but the domestic rapeseed oil inventory is still high. The strategy is to wait and see for single - side trading and focus on the opportunity of going long on rapeseed oil and short on soybean oil for arbitrage [5][7]. - For protein meals, the global soybean supply will remain loose in the 2025/26 season. The domestic soybean crushing volume is high, and the soybean meal inventory is rising from a low level. The rebound space of soybean meal is limited. The price of rapeseed meal is supported by the rising rapeseed price, but the high inventory of imported rapeseed meal restricts its upward movement. The strategy is to wait for the opportunity to short after the rebound for single - side trading and wait and see for arbitrage [9][10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Viewpoint and Strategy 3.1.1 Oils - **Core fundamentals**: Global soybean supply is loose. US soybean planting progress is fast, and domestic soybean oil is accumulating inventory. Palm oil production increase in Malaysia is small, and exports are improving. Rapeseed prices support rapeseed oil, but domestic rapeseed oil supply is abundant [7]. - **Cost and profit**: As of May 30, the arrival cost of Brazilian soybeans in July is 3,557 yuan/ton, with a gross profit of 184 yuan/ton. The import cost of palm oil (June shipment) is 8,456 yuan/ton, with a spot profit of - 125.36 yuan/ton. The arrival duty - paid price of Canadian rapeseed (June shipment) is 5,253 yuan/ton, with a spot crushing profit of - 68 yuan/ton [7]. - **Supply and demand**: In June, the estimated import volume of soybeans is 10.5 million tons, rapeseed is 200,000 tons, and palm oil is 252,000 tons. In May, the domestic soybean oil sales decreased by 42%, palm oil sales increased by 30.34%, and rapeseed oil sales decreased by 23% [7]. - **Inventory**: As of May 23, the total commercial inventory of the three major oils was 1.8018 million tons, a decrease of 0.67 tons from the previous week, a year - on - year increase of 4.70% [7]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see for single - side trading; focus on the opportunity of going long on rapeseed oil and short on soybean oil for arbitrage [7]. 3.1.2 Protein Meals - **Core fundamentals**: Global soybean supply is loose. Domestic soybean meal inventory is rising from a low level. The rebound of soybean meal is restricted by the large arrival of soybeans. Rapeseed meal is supported by the rising rapeseed price, but the high inventory of imported rapeseed meal restricts its upward movement [10]. - **Cost and profit**: As of May 30, the arrival cost of Brazilian soybeans in July is 3,557 yuan/ton, with a gross profit of 184 yuan/ton. The arrival duty - paid price of Canadian rapeseed (June shipment) is 5,253 yuan/ton, with a spot crushing profit of - 68 yuan/ton [10]. - **Supply and demand**: In June, the estimated import volume of soybeans is 10.5 million tons and rapeseed is 200,000 tons. From May 3 - 30, the total soybean meal sales decreased by 20.47% compared with April. The coastal rapeseed meal pick - up volume decreased by 25.50%, and the consumption of imported rapeseed meal increased by 24.42% [10]. - **Inventory**: In the 21st week, the soybean meal inventory in oil mills increased by 70% from the previous week, still at a low level. The inventory days of feed enterprises' soybean meal are 5.99 days, still at a low level. The rapeseed meal inventory in coastal oil mills decreased by 18.97% in the 21st week, while the imported rapeseed meal inventory is still high [10]. - **Strategy**: Wait for the opportunity to short after the rebound for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage [10]. 3.2 Market Review of Oils and Meals in May 2025 - **Oils**: The oils sector fluctuated narrowly in May, affected by the rumor of US biodiesel policy. Soybean oil inventory is increasing, palm oil did not weaken during the production - increasing period due to improved exports, and rapeseed oil is supported by cost [14]. - **Price differences**: The price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil widened, the price difference between soybean oil and palm oil narrowed, and the price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil changed little [19]. - **Spot prices**: In May, the spot price of rapeseed oil increased slightly, while the spot prices of soybean oil and palm oil decreased. On May 30, the mainstream price of rapeseed oil was 9,474 yuan/ton, an increase of 58 yuan/ton; the average price of first - grade soybean oil was 7,928 yuan/ton, a decrease of 285 yuan/ton; and the national average price of 24 - degree palm oil was 8,520 yuan/ton, a decrease of 330 yuan/ton [21]. - **Protein meals**: Soybean and rapeseed meals rebounded in late May. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal narrowed to a low level, and the oil - meal ratio decreased. The spot price of soybean meal decreased significantly, while the spot price of rapeseed meal rebounded from a low level [25][28][31]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis of Oils and Oilseeds - International Situation - **Global oilseed supply**: It is expected that the global oilseed supply will be loose in the 2025/26 season. The global oilseed output is expected to be 692.1 million tons, a 2% increase. The global soybean output is expected to be 426.8 million tons, a 1% increase. The total output of rapeseed and sunflower seeds is expected to recover by 6% [36]. - **US soybeans**: The weather in the main soybean - growing areas is good, the planting progress is fast, and the crushing profit is low. As of May 25, the planting progress is 76%, and the emergence rate is 50% [45][47][51]. - **Brazilian soybeans**: The harvest is basically completed, and the export is still at a peak. It is estimated that the export volume in May is 14.03 million tons, a 4.16% year - on - year increase. The CNF premium has decreased slightly [54][56]. - **Argentine soybeans**: The current harvest progress is slow, but it is expected to speed up as the rainfall decreases [60]. - **Malaysian palm oil**: The production in May increased slightly, and the export improved. The inventory build - up in April exceeded expectations [63][68]. - **Global rapeseed**: It is expected that the global rapeseed output will recover in the 2025/26 season, reaching 89.558 million tons, a 445,900 - ton increase. The production increase mainly comes from the EU, Canada, and Russia [71]. - **Canadian rapeseed**: The rainfall in the main growing areas is slightly lower than normal, the planting progress is fast, and the export demand is strong. The price of rapeseed futures in the Intercontinental Exchange has been rising [74][77][81]. 3.4 Fundamental Analysis of Oils and Oilseeds - Domestic Situation - **Soybeans**: It is expected that a large amount of soybeans will arrive at ports from June to July. The soybean inventory in oil mills will gradually increase, the import cost in May decreased, the crushing profit increased, and the crushing volume is expected to remain high [86][90][94][98]. - **Palm oil**: The import cost in May decreased slightly, the import profit improved, and the import volume in June is expected to increase [102][106][109]. - **Rapeseed**: The import cost of Canadian rapeseed in May increased, the crushing profit narrowed, the inventory in oil mills is low, and the crushing volume decreased significantly [113][118][127]. - **Oils inventory**: In May, the total inventory of the three major oils was relatively stable, but the inventory trends were different. Soybean oil inventory increased rapidly, rapeseed oil inventory decreased from a high level, and palm oil inventory remained low [131][137]. - **Oils trading volume**: In May, the trading volume of palm oil increased, while the trading volumes of soybean oil and rapeseed oil decreased [140]. - **Soybean meal**: The inventory is gradually increasing, and the trading volume in May decreased [143][147]. - **Rapeseed meal**: The inventory in oil mills is low, the port inventory is high, and the consumption in May decreased slightly [151][154][157].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The alumina market is expected to remain weakly volatile in May, with limited upside potential, and the operating range is [2600 - 3000]. The electrolytic aluminum market is expected to be strongly volatile in May, and the reference operating range is [19500 - 21000] [8] Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Viewpoints and Strategies - Alumina is expected to be weakly volatile. Supply is getting looser, demand growth is limited, and costs are falling. It is recommended to short on rallies [8] - Electrolytic aluminum is expected to be strongly volatile. Supply remains strong, demand is slowly recovering, and low inventories support prices [8] 3.2 Review of Market Performance - As of April 25, LME aluminum first fell and then rose, down 2.52% month-on-month compared to March. SHFE aluminum mainly fluctuated after a decline, down 2.98% month-on-month compared to March. Alumina maintained a weakly volatile trend, down 2.4% month-on-month compared to March [11][15] 3.3 Supply Situation of the Aluminum Industry Chain - Domestic bauxite production has limited growth and supply is tight. In March, the output was 575,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 27,000 tons [19][20] - Overseas bauxite shipments have declined overall. In March, shipments from Guinea decreased by 428,000 tons month-on-month, while those from Australia increased by 164,000 tons month-on-month [24][25] - Imports have increased significantly, alleviating the tight supply situation. In March, imports were 1.64657 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 205,090 tons [28][29] - Alumina production is at a high level, and the supply side is strong. In March, production increased to 744,900 tons month-on-month [32][33] - The import window remains closed, and net imports are at a very low level. In March, the net import volume was -285,600 tons [36][37] - Raw material prices have fallen, and the costs of both alumina and electrolytic aluminum continue to decline. As of April 25, the alumina production cost dropped to 2946.3 yuan/ton, and the electrolytic aluminum production cost in March was 15,235 yuan/ton [39][40] - Electrolytic aluminum capacity utilization remains high. In March, it rose slightly to 96.23%, and the output was 372,880 tons [44][45] - The aluminum rod operating rate continues to operate at a high level. In March, it was 58.48%, and the output was 149,600 tons [49][50] - The net export pattern of aluminum ingots continues. In March, the net import volume was -261,200 tons, a year-on-year increase of 64.84% [54] 3.4 Downstream and Terminal Performance of the Aluminum Industry - The operating rates of downstream sectors of electrolytic aluminum have increased. Aluminum profiles rose to 45.49%, aluminum rods to 60.6%, and aluminum sheets, strips, and foils to 74.4% [59] - Aluminum product exports have slowed down due to domestic and overseas policies. From January to March, the cumulative export volume of aluminum profiles was 196,600 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 19.5%; the cumulative export volume of aluminum cables was 61,500 tons, a year-on-year increase of 19.02% [62][63] - Real estate indicators have shown narrowing declines. From January to March, the cumulative real estate development investment decreased by 9.9% year-on-year, the new construction area decreased by 24.4%, and the completed area decreased by 14.3% [72][73] - The automobile production - sales ratio has declined significantly. In March, the production was 3.0058 million vehicles, the sales were 2.9155 million vehicles, and the production - sales ratio was 0.9699 [76][77] - Refrigerator growth has slowed down significantly, while washing machines and air conditioners have maintained growth. From January to March, refrigerator production increased by 3.7% year-on-year, washing machine production increased by 13.9%, and air conditioner production increased by 9.7% [80][81] 3.5 Aluminum Industry Inventory - Bauxite supply is gradually easing, but port inventories remain at a very low level. As of April 25, the port inventory was 2.25 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 222,000 tons [84][85] - Alumina inventories continue to accumulate, and supply is gradually loosening. As of April 25, the inventory was 399,400 tons, a month-on-month increase of 0.91% [88][89] - Aluminum ingot inventories continue to decline, and support continues to strengthen. As of April 28, the social inventory was 66,400 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 149,000 tons [92][93] - Both SHFE and LME inventories are in a state of decline. As of April 25, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 71,293 tons month-on-month, and LME inventory decreased by 40,875 tons month-on-month [97][98]

铁矿石期货 5月报： 钢材利润压缩，铁矿弱势震荡 CONTENTS 目录 01 观点策略 02 03 04 宏观层面 价差 现货及基差 05 供给 06 需求 07 库存 01 观点策略 观点策略 宏观端，关税事件暂退潮，国内政策择时发力，粗钢减控预期仍存。基本面，钢厂利润收缩，随着成材需求走弱，铁矿石需求 下降；库存端压力较小。预计铁矿石5月震荡偏弱走势，重点关注成材需求情况。 注：评分代表主观判断，不构成投资建议。评分仅供参考。 观点策略 主要观点 | | 核心 | 基本面，成材仍有一定利润空间，短期内钢厂铁水产量维持高位，短期铁矿石需求不弱；供给端外矿发运恢复正常；库存端，钢厂 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 逻辑 | 按需采购为主，疏港量高于往年，节前或有补库需求，港口库存压力较小。目前钢材供需矛盾持续积累中，预计5月下旬钢厂面临利 | | | | 润压力减产。宏观层面，粗钢减控预期仍存，铁矿石中长期需求偏弱。 | | | 期现 | 现货方面：4月份铁矿石价格降幅在1-22元/湿吨不等，中品铁粉价格跌幅约10元/吨。期货方面：截至4月25日，铁矿石09合约收盘 价709元/吨，对比 ...

2025年4月 CONTENTS 目录 01 观点策略 02 03 04 宏观层面 价差 现货及基差 05 供应 06 需求 07 库存 钢材二季度报： 需求主导行情，上下方空间均有限 01 观点策略 观点策略 目前钢材以需求主导行情，4月建材需求有待验证，第二季度家电、设备、汽车等决定卷材需求。钢材库存压力不大，由于生产 利润尚可，预计供给端后续有一定压力，钢材第二季度弱势震荡走势。 注：评分代表主观判断，不构成投资建议。评分仅供参考。 观点策略 主要观点 | | | 宏观层面，特朗普关税政策加剧全球贸易壁垒，国内方面，短期内政策预期有限。基本面来看，建材需求持续恢复，但是预计上方 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 核心 | 空间有限；卷材类由于"两新"政策刺激，虽然出口受阻，但是需求仍较为坚挺。供给端，由于钢厂利润尚可，因此铁水产量维持 | | | | 高位，有一定供给压力。库存端，钢材持续去库，库存压力不大。 | | | 逻辑 | 目前钢材主要交易逻辑在于需求，市场博弈4月北方地区建材需求空间，以及制造业对卷材的支撑。预计第二季度钢材偏弱势震荡， | | | | 下方支撑在成本位，上方 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The trading logic during the Two Sessions dominates, with intensified long - short gaming in the market. The fundamentals of iron ore have no major contradictions, and it is expected to maintain a range - bound trend. The 05 contract of iron ore is expected to fluctuate within the range of [740 - 840] [7][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Viewpoint Strategy - **Overall Situation**: The trading logic during the Two Sessions is dominant, and the iron ore market has intensified long - short gaming. The fundamentals are not weak, and the 05 contract is expected to fluctuate between 740 - 840 yuan/ton [7][10]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply side - the shipments from Australia and Brazil have recovered, and the near - term arrivals may decline. Demand side - steel mills have decent profits, iron - water production is expected to increase slightly, and the demand for iron ore is not weak. Inventory - port inventory is at a high level, but the inventory pressure is not large [10]. - **Spot and Futures**: In February, the spot price of iron ore oscillated slightly higher, with medium - and low - grade iron powder prices rising by about 10 yuan/wet ton. As of February 28, the closing price of the main iron ore contract was 799.5 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.36%. The basis on the 28th was 2.5 yuan/ton, showing a slight strengthening [10]. - **Spread**: The spread between DCE and SGX iron ore in February was around 30 yuan/ton, up from January and at the historical average level. As of the end of February, the rebar - iron ore spread (05 contract) was 2528.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 43 yuan/ton compared with the end of January; the rebar - iron ore ratio was 4.16, a decrease of 0.01 compared with the end of January [10]. - **Supply**: The shipments of the four major mines have recovered rapidly, and the near - term arrivals have decreased. In February, the domestic mine production increased [10]. - **Demand**: Steel mills' production profits are decent, but production is cautious. The iron - water production is maintained at around 228 tons/day, and the weekly consumption of imported iron ore is around 280 - 285 tons/day [10]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory is at a high level, and the steel mill inventory is at a low level. The port dredging volume has increased slightly [10]. - **Strategy**: Conduct range - bound operations on the 05 contract of iron ore within the range of [740 - 840] [10]. 3.2 Macro Level - **Construction - Project Fund Availability**: As of February 25, the sample construction site fund availability was 56.47%, a week - on - week increase of 1.09 percentage points. The fund availability of non - housing construction and housing construction projects has improved, with non - housing construction showing a slightly better improvement [13]. - **Construction - Cement and Concrete Outbound Volume**: In February, the cement outbound volume increased continuously. As of the week of February 28, the weekly cement outbound volume was 156.6 tons, an increase of 129.48 tons compared with the week of February 7. The concrete shipment volume increased gradually, but the increase was significantly smaller than that of cement [16]. - **Infrastructure - Cement Direct Supply Volume**: In February, the infrastructure cement direct supply volume increased significantly, rising from 2 tons/week at the beginning of the month to 80 tons/week at the end of the month. The asphalt sales volume doubled [19]. - **Manufacturing - PMI Index**: In February, the manufacturing PMI index was 50.2%, a rebound of 1.1 percentage points from January. The March production plan of three major white - goods was 40.5 million units, a month - on - month increase of 38.98% and higher than the historical average [21]. 3.3 Spot and Basis - **Black Sector Commodity Prices**: In February, steel prices oscillated more violently, with slight declines in rebar and hot - rolled coil prices. Iron ore prices were relatively firm, while coke prices were lowered in three rounds [25]. - **Iron Ore Spot Price**: In February, the iron ore spot price oscillated slightly higher. Except for high - grade iron powder, the prices of medium - and low - grade iron powder increased by about 10 yuan/wet ton [30]. - **Iron Ore Futures Price**: As of February 28, the closing price of the main iron ore contract was 799.5 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.36%. The basis on the 28th was 2.5 yuan/ton, showing a slight strengthening [33]. - **Iron Ore Position**: In February, the single - sided position of iron ore first increased and then decreased, reaching a maximum of 935,000 lots on February 21 [36]. - **Inter - period Spread**: The Back curve of iron ore prices moved down, and the curve became steeper. The 1 - 5 spread and 5 - 9 spread widened slightly [40][43]. 3.4 Spread - **Cross - market Spread**: The spread between DCE and SGX iron ore in February was around 30 yuan/ton, up from January and at the historical average level [47]. - **Cross - variety Spread**: As of the end of February, the rebar - iron ore spread (05 contract) was 2528.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 43 yuan/ton compared with the end of January; the rebar - iron ore ratio was 4.16, a decrease of 0.01 compared with the end of January. The arbitrage opportunity between rebar and iron ore is limited [49]. 3.5 Supply - **Global Shipment Volume**: As of the week of February 28, the global iron ore shipment volume was 33.954 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.285 million tons, an increase of 10.71%. The Australian and Brazilian shipment volume was 27.376 million tons, an increase of 1.622 million tons, an increase of 6.3% [52]. - **Four Major Mines' Shipment to China**: As of the week of February 28, the shipment of the four major mines to China was 19.228 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 35,000 tons, a decrease of 0.18% [56]. - **47 - Port Arrival Volume**: As of the week of February 28, the 47 - port iron ore arrival volume was 18.861 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.89 million tons, a decrease of 17.1% [60]. - **Domestic Mine Supply**: In February, the capacity utilization rate and production of domestic mines increased [62][65]. 3.6 Demand - **Iron - water Production**: In February, the daily average iron - water production was around 2.28 million tons, and the weekly consumption of imported iron ore was around 2.8 - 2.85 million tons/day [68]. - **Blast Furnace Operation**: In February, the blast furnace operation rate of 247 steel enterprises was around 78%, and the capacity utilization rate was around 85.5% [70]. - **Steel Mill Profit**: In February, the profitability of 247 steel enterprises was around 50%. The profit of blast - furnace rebar production was relatively high, while the profit of electric - furnace steel production decreased [73][78]. 3.7 Inventory - **Domestic Mine Inventory**: As of the week of February 28, the iron ore concentrate inventory of 126 and 186 mining enterprises increased slightly compared with the beginning of the month, but remained at a low level [91]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: As of the week of February 28, the iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 91.6719 million tons, a decrease of 2.9755 million tons compared with the beginning of February [94]. - **Port Inventory**: As of the week of February 28, the 47 - port iron ore inventory was 157.564 million tons, a decrease of 2.4628 million tons compared with the beginning of the month [97]. - **Dredging Volume**: As of the week of February 28, the average daily dredging volume of 45 ports was 2.9883 million tons, an increase of 301,600 tons/day compared with the beginning of February [100].