1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For oils, affected by multiple negative factors such as high - inventory of Malaysian palm oil and potential delay of Indonesia's B50 policy, domestic three major oils have been under pressure and declined. After the reduction in production is realized and Malaysian palm oil starts to destock, oils may stop falling and rebound. For protein meals, the cost side supports soybean meal, but the abundant domestic supply restricts its upward space. Rapeseed meal follows soybean meal with a weak supply - demand situation [8][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Viewpoint and Strategy 3.1.1 Oils - **Core Logic**: Multiple negative factors such as high - inventory of Malaysian palm oil and potential delay of Indonesia's B50 policy have led to the decline of Malaysian palm oil, which in turn has pressured domestic oils. However, considering Indonesia's low inventory and approaching low - production period, palm oil is not overly pessimistic. After the negative impact of Malaysian palm oil inventory build - up in October is released, palm oil is expected to rebound [8]. - **Cost and Profit**: As of October 31, the arrival cost of Brazilian soybeans for December delivery was 3923 yuan/ton, with a negative gross profit of 248 yuan/ton on the futures market. The import cost of palm oil (November shipment) was 9251 yuan/ton, with a negative spot profit of 678 yuan/ton and a negative futures profit of 274 yuan/ton for November shipment. The theoretical import cost of Canadian rapeseed (November shipment) was 4459 yuan/ton, with a spot crushing profit of 765 yuan/ton and a futures crushing profit of 497 yuan/ton [8]. - **Supply**: The estimated soybean import volume in November is 955000 tons, rapeseed 19500 tons, and palm oil 39000 tons [8]. - **Demand**: In October, the total transaction volume of bulk soybean oil in key domestic oil mills was 240000 tons, a 29.12% month - on - month decrease. The palm oil trading volume was 22115 tons, a 36.07% month - on - month decrease. The pick - up volume of rapeseed oil in coastal oil mills was 49900 tons, a 51.55% decrease from the previous month [8]. - **Inventory**: As of October 24, 2025, the total commercial inventory of the three major oils (soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil) in key national regions was 2.3934 million tons, an 18.77% year - on - year increase [8]. - **Strategy**: Temporarily wait and see, and go long at low prices after the fundamentals improve. Pay attention to the reverse spread of soybean oil 1 - 5 contracts [8]. 3.1.2 Protein Meals - **Core Logic**: The improvement in US soybean export expectations supports the cost of soybean meal, but the abundant domestic supply restricts its upward space. Rapeseed meal follows soybean meal, with a weak supply - demand situation due to low inventory in coastal oil mills and reduced demand in the off - season of aquaculture [11]. - **Cost and Profit**: Similar to the oil section, the cost and profit data of soybeans and rapeseed are the same [11]. - **Supply**: The estimated soybean import volume in November is 955000 tons, and rapeseed 19500 tons [11]. - **Demand**: In October, the total transaction volume of soybean meal was 2.0506 million tons, a 34.51% month - on - month and 63.91% year - on - year decrease. The pick - up volume of rapeseed meal in coastal oil mills was 41500 tons, a decrease of 60100 tons from the previous month [11]. - **Inventory**: In the 43rd week, the inventory of soybean meal in oil mills was 1054600 tons, an 8.03% increase from the previous week, basically the same as the same period last year. The inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises were 8.02 days, a decrease of 1.58 days from the end of September. The inventory of rapeseed meal in coastal oil mills was 7100 tons, an 8.97% decrease from the previous week and an 88.64% decrease year - on - year. The inventory of imported rapeseed meal was 528800 tons, which has been declining recently but remains at a high level [11]. - **Strategy**: Temporarily wait and see in the short - term for both single - side and arbitrage trading [11]. 3.2 Market Review of Oils and Meals in October 2025 - **Oils**: In October, the three major oils declined unilaterally, mainly due to the negative impact of palm oil. Malaysian palm oil production and inventory in September were higher than expected, and high - frequency data showed an increase in production and weak exports in October. Coupled with the potential delay of Indonesia's B50 policy, Malaysian palm oil fell sharply, leading the decline in the domestic palm oil sector. Although the cost side supported soybean oil and rapeseed oil inventory decreased from a high level, they were still dragged down by palm oil and declined [15]. - **Protein Meals**: In October, soybean meal and rapeseed meal first declined and then rebounded. In the first half of the month, they were weak due to factors such as abundant domestic supply and expected improvement in China - Canada trade relations. In the second half of the month, the improvement in US soybean export expectations supported the cost side, and they rebounded [28]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis of Oils and Oilseeds 3.3.1 International Situation - **US Soybeans**: The US government shutdown has suspended the release of USDA reports. It is expected that the soybean harvest is nearly complete. The dry weather in the main production areas is conducive to the harvest [36]. - **Brazilian Soybeans**: As of October 25, the planting progress was 34.4%, slightly slower than the same period last year and the five - year average. In October, the CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans fluctuated downward. If China resumes purchasing US soybeans, Brazilian soybean exports are expected to decline [39][43]. - **Indonesian Palm Oil**: In August, the production was 5.06 million tons, and the export volume decreased by 1.8% month - on - month. The inventory decreased slightly to 2.54 million tons. It is expected that the production in 2025 will increase by 10% [47]. - **Malaysian Palm Oil**: In September, the production was 1.8412 million tons, and the inventory reached 2.361 million tons, higher than expected. High - frequency data showed an increase in production in October, and the export data for October increased slightly. The inventory build - up was higher than expected [50][55]. - **Canadian Rapeseed**: From August 1 to October 26, 2025, the cumulative export volume decreased by 62.24% year - on - year. The domestic crushing demand was strong [59]. 3.3.2 Domestic Situation - **Soybeans**: As of October 28, the procurement progress for November was 87.73%. It is estimated that the import volume in November will be large, and the inventory in oil mills remains at a high level. In October, the import cost increased, and the crushing profit was poor. The soybean crushing volume remained high [64][68][75]. - **Palm Oil**: In October, the import cost decreased significantly, and the import loss deepened. The import volume in September was low and rebounded in October. It is estimated that the import volume in November will be 39000 tons [84][89][93]. - **Rapeseed**: In October, the import cost increased, and the crushing profit decreased significantly. The import volume decreased sharply in September and is expected to recover slightly in November. The inventory in oil mills remains at a low level, and the crushing volume remains low [97][101][105]. - **Inventory of Three Major Oils**: As of October 24, 2025, the total inventory was at a high level, with a year - on - year increase of 18.77%. The inventory trends of the three major oils diverged, with soybean oil and palm oil continuing to build up inventory, and rapeseed oil inventory declining from a high level [116][122]. - **Demand for Oils**: In October, the demand for oils weakened after the festival. The transaction volume of soybean oil, palm oil, and the pick - up volume of rapeseed oil all decreased [124]. - **Inventory of Protein Meals**: It is expected that the inventory of soybean meal in oil mills will remain high in November. The inventory of rapeseed meal in coastal oil mills is low, while the inventory of imported rapeseed meal remains at a high level but has been declining recently [128][137]. - **Demand for Protein Meals**: In October, the transaction volume of soybean meal decreased significantly, and the pick - up volume of rapeseed meal also decreased [132][143]. 3.4 Arbitrage Spread Tracking 3.4.1 Inter - period Spread of Oils - For some contracts, historical spread core intervals, means, medians, current spreads, and distances from the mean are provided, and some suggest paying attention to reverse - spread opportunities while others suggest waiting and seeing [148]. 3.4.2 Inter - variety Spread - For different oil varieties, historical spread core intervals, means, medians, current spreads, and distances from the mean are given. Some suggest waiting for opportunities to go long on palm oil and short on soybean oil, while others suggest waiting and seeing [152].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report predicts that in the 2025/26 period, the global oilseed supply will remain relatively loose, mainly due to the recovery of rapeseed and sunflower seed production and a slight increase in soybean production. The prices of oils and protein meals are expected to be weak in the early fourth - quarter, but may rise towards the end of the year if the La Nina weather is strong. [5][6][8] - For trading strategies, it is recommended to take a bearish view on oils and protein meals in the short - term, look for opportunities to go long on oils at the end of the year in the medium - term, and consider long - short spread trading strategies such as going long on rapeseed oil and short on palm oil, and going long on the oil - meal ratio in the medium - to long - term. [8] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Viewpoint Strategy - **Supply**: The global oilseed supply in 2025/26 will be relatively loose. Rapeseed and sunflower seed production will recover, and soybean production will slightly increase. In the US, soybean planting area decreases but with high yield; in Argentina, the planting area drops and there is a high probability of La Nina, which may lead to significant production reduction; in Brazil, the planting area increases, expected to offset the reduction from the US and Argentina. In China, soybean imports are large, palm oil imports are low, and rapeseed inventory in oil mills is at a low level. [6] - **Demand**: Global vegetable oil consumption increases annually, with a 2.5% growth in edible consumption and a 5.13% increase in industrial consumption in 2025/26. India's edible demand and the bio - fuel policies of Indonesia, the US, and Brazil are key factors. Protein meal demand is expected to decline due to the reduction of sow inventory and other factors. [7] - **Outlook and Strategies**: Oils and protein meals are expected to be weak in the early fourth - quarter. If La Nina is strong at the end of the year, oils may rise. Short - term: bearish on oils and protein meals; Medium - term: look for long - oil opportunities at the end of the year; Arbitrage: long rapeseed oil and short palm oil, long oil - meal ratio. [8] 3.2 Oil and Oilseed Market Review - **Oil Single - sided Review**: In the first three quarters of 2025, oils showed a wave - like upward trend. They were affected by various factors such as US tariff policies, bio - fuel policies, and geopolitical conflicts. [11][14][15] - **Oil Spread Review**: The spreads between different oils fluctuated throughout the year. Palm oil was strong in some periods, while rapeseed oil was relatively resistant in others, leading to changes in spreads. [19][20] - **Protein Meal Single - sided Review**: Protein meal prices were affected by factors such as USDA reports, tariff policies, and soybean import costs. They showed an overall volatile trend. [23] - **Protein Meal Spread Review**: The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was mainly affected by tariff policies and market supply - demand changes, with significant fluctuations in some periods. [27] 3.3 Global Oil and Oilseed Supply - Demand Analysis - **Global Oilseed Supply**: In 2025/26, global oilseed production, consumption, and ending inventory all increase, indicating a relatively loose supply. [31] - **Global Vegetable Oil Supply - Demand**: In 2025/26, global vegetable oil supply and demand both increase, but demand growth is greater than supply, and ending inventory slightly decreases. [32] - **Global Protein Meal Supply - Demand**: In 2025/26, global protein meal supply and demand both increase, with ending inventory slightly rising, showing a loose supply. [37] - **Global Soybean Supply - Demand**: In 2025/26, global soybean supply is relatively loose. US soybean production decreases, while Brazil's production increases. Argentina's production may be affected by La Nina. [40] - **Palm Oil Supply - Demand**: In 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production is similar to last year, but exports are weak and inventory is high. Indonesia's palm oil production recovers, exports increase, and inventory remains low. [90][94][98] - **Rapeseed and Sunflower Seed Supply - Demand**: In 2025/26, global rapeseed production recovers and inventory rises; global sunflower seed production increases and inventory slightly increases. [109][134] - **Oil Demand**: Global vegetable oil industrial consumption growth is expected to pick up in 2025/26. India's import demand is large, while the US bio - diesel production and consumption are low. Indonesia's bio - diesel demand increases, and Brazil's soybean oil demand rises due to the increase in blending ratio. [142][147][167] 3.4 Domestic Oil and Oilseed Supply - Demand Analysis - **Soybean Imports**: In 2025, from January to August, soybean imports increased by 4% year - on - year, mainly from South America. The proportion of US soybean imports decreased. [171] - **Soybean Inventory**: Oil mill soybean inventory is expected to be higher than the same period in previous years from October to December. [175] - **Soybean Import Cost and Profit**: As of September 29, 2025, the import cost and profit of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans vary. The purchase of Argentine soybeans is active due to good profit. [179] - **Oil Mill Operation Rate**: Since May, the oil mill operation rate has been high, and the soybean crushing volume in the first 38 weeks of 2025 increased by 5.06% year - on - year. [183] - **Palm Oil Import**: As of September 26, palm oil import losses are heavy, and the import volume is low. [190][192]

Report Title - Carbonate Lithium Quarterly Report for Q4 [1] Report Date - September 30, 2025 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - In 2025, the global lithium resource market will see a simultaneous increase in supply and demand. The price of lithium carbonate will fluctuate around the high - cost curve, with an expected core range of 60,000 - 85,000 yuan/ton [10]. - The cost curve of lithium resources will shift downward, with the 90%/80% capacity dividing lines corresponding to costs of 63,000/56,000 yuan/ton LCE respectively [10]. - The demand for new - energy vehicles and energy storage remains promising, with expected global electric vehicle sales to reach 22.2 million units, a year - on - year increase of 22%, and domestic sales to reach 16.5 million units, a year - on - year increase of 28% [10]. Summary by Directory 01 Market Review - In the first half of the year, the price of lithium carbonate dropped by 22% due to supply - demand imbalance and cost reduction. Since the third quarter, it first rose by up to 45% under the influence of anti - involution policies and the suspension of Jiuxiaowo Mine, then fell back to an 18.73% increase [13]. 02 Supply Analysis Global Lithium Mines - The global primary lithium ore supply is expected to reach 1.66 million tons of LCE in 2025, a year - on - year increase of 22.26%. The supply growth rate has slowed down slightly due to factors such as the suspension of Jiuxiaowo Mine in China, the delay of some South American salt - lake capacity construction, and the reduction or suspension of high - cost projects in Australia [22]. Australian Lithium Mines - Australian lithium mine supply will maintain a steady growth of 12.2%. The production of major mines is expected to increase, and the cash - cost guidance of major mines has been lowered [23][25]. African Lithium Mines - African lithium mine output will maintain a high growth rate. In 2025, the supply is expected to reach 224,000 tons of LCE, a year - on - year increase of 78%. Future cost - reduction potential is large [28]. South American Salt Lakes - South American salt - lake lithium resource supply is expected to reach 440,000 tons (in terms of LCE) in 2025, a year - on - year increase of 20.4%. New projects will gradually ramp up production [31]. Chinese Lithium Mines - The growth rate of Chinese lithium mines has been revised down to 10.62% due to the suspension of Jiuxiaowo Mine. The production of lithium mica and salt - lake lithium has decreased, while the production of lithium spodumene has increased [32][53]. Lithium Ore Imports - From January to August, the cumulative domestic lithium ore imports were 3.85 million tons, basically the same year - on - year. The imports from African countries increased significantly [36]. Lithium Salt Imports - From January to August, the cumulative imports of lithium carbonate reached 153,400 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.5%. In August, the imports increased significantly [40]. Domestic Supply - From January to August, the cumulative domestic lithium carbonate production reached 596,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 40%. The smelting capacity is sufficient [44]. 03 Demand Analysis Primary Demand - From January to August, the consumption of lithium carbonate increased by 45.62% year - on - year to 711,000 tons. The consumption of cathode ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, and lithium cobalt oxide increased by 14.14%, 56%, and 31.39% respectively [56]. Inventory in the Industrial Chain - The industrial chain is in a complex game between high inventory pressure and structural demand growth. The upstream lithium carbonate inventory is high, while the inventory - to - sales ratio of the cathode and battery is relatively healthy. The inventory of new - energy vehicles in the downstream has started seasonal destocking [60]. Global New - Energy Vehicle Sales - It is expected that the global new - energy vehicle sales will reach 22.2 million units in 2025, a year - on - year increase of 22%. The domestic sales are expected to reach 16.5 million units, a year - on - year increase of 28% [64]. Demand for Lithium from New - Energy Vehicles - The proportion of pure - electric vehicles in new - energy vehicles has increased, and the average battery capacity per vehicle has also increased, driving strong demand for lithium [72]. Global Energy - Storage Market - It is expected that the global energy - storage new - installed capacity will reach 82GW/216GWh in 2025, a year - on - year increase of 28%/36%. China, the United States, and Europe lead the global energy - storage demand growth [78]. 04 Balance and Price Cost Curve - In 2025, the center of the lithium resource cost curve will shift downward further. The cost of non - integrated lithium spodumene smelting enterprises fluctuates greatly [83]. Profit Status - In the first half of the year, enterprises using externally purchased raw materials were in long - term losses. In the third quarter, the smelting profit rebounded from the bottom [87]. Supply - Demand Balance and Price - In 2025, the domestic lithium carbonate supply is expected to be 1.135 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 25.36%, and the demand is expected to be 1.0905 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 32.39%. The annual surplus is expected to be 44,400 tons. The price will fluctuate around the high - cost curve, with a range of [60,000, 85,000] yuan/ton [90].

Report Title - Steel Q4 Report: Cost Support, Upside Depends on Policy [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The steel fundamentals remain weak with high supply pressure, weak downstream demand for rebar, some support for hot-rolled coil demand, and strong exports. The market is expected to be dominated by macro policies in Q4, with limited downside and upside space depending on policy implementation. Steel is expected to fluctuate strongly within a certain range [7][12] - In Q3, the spot steel price increased by about 5%. The rebar and hot-rolled coil futures showed an "up-down-fluctuation" trend and strengthened slightly, with macro policies dominating the market. The unilateral positions in the steel futures market remained high in Q3 and decreased at the end of the quarter [12] - As of the end of September, the rebar-iron ore ratio was 3.94, down 0.43 compared to the end of December. The hot-rolled coil - rebar spread (01 contract) was 199 yuan/ton, up 86 yuan/ton compared to the end of June [12] Summary by Directory 01 Viewpoint Strategy - **Core**: The steel fundamentals are weak with high supply pressure, weak downstream demand for rebar, and strong exports. The market is expected to be dominated by macro policies in Q4, with limited downside and upside space depending on policy implementation. Steel is expected to fluctuate strongly within a certain range [12] - **Logic**: Q4 is expected to be dominated by macro policies. With policy support at the coal end, the downside space for steel is limited, but the upside depends on policy efforts [12] - **Spot and Futures Market**: In Q3, the spot steel price increased by about 5%. The rebar and hot-rolled coil futures showed an "up-down-fluctuation" trend and strengthened slightly, with macro policies dominating the market. The unilateral positions in the steel futures market remained high in Q3 and decreased at the end of the quarter [12] - **Spread**: As of the end of September, the rebar-iron ore ratio was 3.94, down 0.43 compared to the end of December. The hot-rolled coil - rebar spread (01 contract) was 199 yuan/ton, up 86 yuan/ton compared to the end of June [12] - **Strategy**: Consider interval operations. The rebar 01 contract is expected to trade between 3050 - 3400 yuan/ton, and the hot-rolled coil 10 contract between 3200 - 3500 yuan/ton. Consider buying on dips [12] 02 Macro Level - In Q3, policy expectations dominated the black - sector market. Policies such as the construction of a unified national market, the upcoming release of a steady - growth plan for key industries, and the implementation of the "Anti - involution" policy had different impacts on the market, causing price fluctuations in the black sector [15] 03 Spot and Basis - **Spot Price**: In Q3, the rebar and hot-rolled coil prices showed an "up-down-fluctuation" trend, with a spot price increase of about 5%. Policy expectations and coal price fluctuations were the main drivers of price changes [17] - **Futures Market**: The rebar futures showed an "up-down-fluctuation" trend, with the main contract fluctuating around 3000 - 3400 yuan/ton. The hot-rolled coil futures also showed a similar trend, with stronger terminal demand and greater resistance to price drops [20][31] - **Basis**: The rebar basis fluctuated around 100 yuan/ton, and the hot-rolled coil basis first decreased and then increased, fluctuating around 50 yuan/ton at the end of September [21][31] - **Open Interest**: The rebar futures open interest fluctuated around 3 million lots in Q3 and decreased at the end of the quarter. The hot-rolled coil futures open interest first increased and then decreased [22][34] - **Inter - period Spread**: The rebar futures price curve steepened, and the inter - period spread widened. The hot-rolled coil futures price curve showed a mild Back structure, and the 10 - 1 spread increased [25][40] 04 Spread - **Rebar - Iron Ore Ratio**: As of the end of September, the rebar-iron ore ratio was 3.94, down 0.43 compared to the end of December. There may be opportunities to short the rebar-iron ore ratio in the future [44][45] - **Hot - Rolled Coil - Rebar Spread**: As of the end of September, the hot-rolled coil - rebar spread (01 contract) was 199 yuan/ton, up 86 yuan/ton compared to the end of June. Consider shorting the spread at high levels in the future [47] 05 Supply - **Overall Production**: As of September 26, the cumulative production of five major steel products was 335 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.83%. The cumulative rebar production was 83 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.05%, and the hot-rolled coil production was 129 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.44% [50] - **Regional Production**: In the East China region, the production of sample enterprises decreased in September. In the South region, the rebar production increased slightly, while in the North region, it decreased compared to last year [54] - **Production Process**: The long - process production was basically flat year - on - year, while the short - process production decreased. The iron water production of steel mills remained high, and the short - process electric furnace production was average, with a slight year - on - year decrease in scrap consumption [57][64] - **Cost Comparison**: The blast furnace production was more cost - effective than the electric furnace production this year [67] 06 Demand - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil Demand**: As of the week of September 26, the cumulative apparent demand for rebar was 80.83 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.08 million tons, while that for hot-rolled coil was 124.17 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.99 million tons [72] - **Profitability**: The profitability of steel mills remained above 50% in the first three quarters. The profits of blast furnace rebar production, electric furnace production, and hot-rolled coil production first increased and then decreased, with hot-rolled coil having relatively strong profits [74][83] - **Investment and Consumption**: From January to August, real estate investment decreased year - on - year, while infrastructure investment increased slightly. The cement and concrete shipments decreased year - on - year, while the added value of multiple manufacturing industries increased [86][101] - **Exports**: From January to August 2025, China's cumulative steel exports were 77.49 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10%. The exports of bars and billets increased significantly, while those of plates decreased [104] 07 Inventory - **Overall Inventory**: As of the week of September 26, the factory inventory of five major steel products was 4.21 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 420,000 tons, and the social inventory was 10.89 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.77 million tons [108] - **Rebar Inventory**: The rebar inventory pressure was high, with the factory inventory and social inventory increasing year - on - year. The warehouse receipts at Jiangsu Huilong Port put pressure on the near - month contracts [112] - **Hot - Rolled Coil Inventory**: The hot-rolled coil inventory continued to accumulate, with relatively high inventory levels [114]

Report Information - Report Title: Alumina & Electrolytic Aluminum Q4 Report - Prices Approach Cost, Limited Decline for Alumina; Consumption May Be Overdrawn, Center of Electrolytic Aluminum Shifts Down [1] - Report Date: September 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views Alumina - In Q3, the alumina market was in a supply surplus. After a short - lived price increase due to market sentiment, prices dropped as the market returned to the surplus fundamentals. The supply is expected to remain ample in Q4, but prices are close to the cost line. If prices fall below the cost line, production cuts may occur, potentially leading to a rebound. Short - term strategy is to sell on rallies, while long - term investors can consider buying near the cost line [5]. Electrolytic Aluminum - In Q3, aluminum prices fluctuated between Fed rate - cut expectations and market fundamentals. Domestic production capacity is at a high level, but the growth in supply is limited. Demand is weakening, especially in the real estate sector. Although there is some support from the macro - environment, prices are expected to be volatile in the short - term and gradually decline in the long - term [6]. Summary by Directory 01 Viewpoint and Strategy Alumina - **Market Review**: In Q3, the alumina market was in surplus. After a price spike due to "anti - involution" sentiment, prices fell as the market reverted to surplus fundamentals [5]. - **Supply**: The supply outlook is bearish. Although Guinea's ore shipments decreased in Q3, Australia's increased, and port inventories continued to build up, supporting high alumina plant operating rates [5]. - **Demand**: Demand is expected to be range - bound. High electrolytic aluminum capacity utilization ensures a large demand for alumina, but the growth in demand is limited as electrolytic aluminum capacity nears the "capacity ceiling" [5]. - **Inventory**: Inventory is bearish. Profitable production led to strong output and continuous inventory accumulation. As of September 26, inventory was 4.505 million tons, up 13.82% year - on - year [5]. - **Outlook**: The outlook is slightly bullish. In Q4, as the rainy season in Guinea ends, ore supply will increase, and prices may decline slightly. If prices fall below the cost line, production cuts could narrow the surplus, and prices may rebound. Short - term strategy is to sell on rallies, and long - term investors can buy near the cost line [5]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: In Q3, aluminum prices oscillated between Fed rate - cut expectations and fundamentals, with strong resistance at the 20,800 level. After a short - lived rise in mid - September, prices fell back [6]. - **Supply**: Supply is bearish. Domestic production capacity is at a high level, but future supply growth is limited as capacity approaches the "ceiling" [6]. - **Demand**: Demand is bearish. Domestic demand is weak, especially in the real estate sector, and exports of major aluminum products remain sluggish [6]. - **Inventory**: Inventory is slightly bearish. With a lower proportion of molten aluminum, social inventory has been building up since July - September, reaching 614,000 tons as of September 26, a medium - level in the past six years [6]. - **Outlook**: The outlook is slightly bearish. Supply will continue to pressure prices, but there is a risk of power - rationing - induced production cuts in the southwest in Q4. Consumption, which was strong in the first half, shows signs of being overdrawn, and demand growth is expected to slow. The market expects loose monetary policy from the Fed, providing some macro - support. Prices will be volatile in the short - term and may decline in the long - term [6]. 02 Bauxite Supply Review and Outlook - **Domestic Bauxite**: In August, China's bauxite production was 5.87 million tons, up 4.82% year - on - year, at a medium level in the past four years. Output in Guangxi, Guizhou, Henan, and Shanxi increased from July - August, with Henan reaching a two - year high [9]. - **Imports**: In August, imports decreased month - on - month due to the rainy season in Guinea but remained at the highest level in the past six years. From January - August, cumulative imports were 141.7563 million tons, up 31.63% year - on - year, with a narrowing growth rate [13]. - **Country - Specific Shipments**: From July - August, shipments from Australia to China increased, while those from Guinea decreased, falling to 4.607 million tons in August. As of September 19, port inventory was 28.76 million tons, at a medium - high level in the past six years [17]. 03 Alumina Fundamental Review and Outlook - **Profit and Production**: From July - August, production costs were stable at around 2,852 yuan/ton, and profit was about 400 yuan/ton in August, dropping to 270 yuan/ton in mid - September. Except for Shanxi, capacity utilization increased in other regions [22]. - **Output**: In July, global metallurgical alumina output was 12.952 million tons, up 0.91% year - on - year, reaching a six - year high. In August, China's output was 7.878 million tons, up 12.53% year - on - year, also a six - year high [28]. - **Net Exports**: From January - August, China maintained a net - export status. In July, net imports were - 103,500 tons, and in August, - 86,100 tons, at a very low level in the past six years [33]. - **Inventory**: Since June, inventory has been building up due to ample supply and strong production. As of September 26, inventory was 4.505 million tons, up 13.82% year - on - year [36]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: Since May, the market has been in surplus. Although Guinea's shipments decreased in the rainy season, Australian imports compensated, leading to strong output. If prices fall below the cost line in Q4, production cuts may narrow the surplus [40]. 04 Electrolytic Aluminum Supply Review and Outlook - **Cost and Profit**: In August, although alumina prices fell, electrolytic aluminum production costs rose slightly to 16,111 yuan/ton, and profit decreased to 4,548 yuan/ton [42]. - **Output**: From July - August, global electrolytic aluminum output was 12.545 million tons, up 1.1% year - on - year, at a six - year high. China's output was 7.566 million tons, up 2.6% year - on - year, with August's output reaching a six - year high [45]. - **Imports**: From July - September, the Shanghai - London ratio declined, and in August, imports decreased month - on - month to 495,600 tons, up 16.9% year - on - year, at a relatively high level in the past six years [49]. - **Inventory**: From July - August, the proportion of molten aluminum was low, and social inventory has been building up since July - September, reaching 614,000 tons as of September 26, a medium - level in the past six years. SHFE and LME inventories also increased, weakening inventory support [52][56]. 05 Electrolytic Aluminum Downstream and Terminal Consumption Review and Outlook - **Downstream Industry**: - **Aluminum Profiles**: The real - estate slump continued to drag down the aluminum - profile industry. In July - August, the operating rate decreased to 42.27% in August and is expected to remain weak [62]. - **Aluminum Sheets and Strips**: From July - August, the operating rate first fell and then rebounded to 70.97% in August, lower than the end of last year [62]. - **Exports**: Trade barriers persisted, and aluminum - product exports showed no significant improvement. Aluminum - profile, sheet - strip, and foil exports decreased year - on - year, while aluminum - cable exports increased but accounted for a small proportion [66][71]. - **End - User Markets**: - **Real Estate**: The real - estate market remained weak. From January - August, new - construction area, construction area, and completion area all decreased year - on - year, with the decline in completion area accelerating [76][81]. - **Automobiles**: From January - August, China's automobile production was 21.026 million vehicles, up 12.64% year - on - year, with a slightly narrowing growth rate. The sales - to - production ratio was 1.0149 in August, indicating a healthy market [85]. - **New - Energy Vehicles**: From January - August, production was 9.6031 million vehicles, up 36.76% year - on - year, with a slightly narrowing growth rate. The sales - to - production ratio was 1.0029 in August [89]. - **Home Appliances**: In Q3, as government subsidies were exhausted, the growth rate of white - goods sales slowed down [94]. - **Photovoltaic**: From January - August, cumulative installed capacity was 1117.23GW, up 48.5% year - on - year, with a narrowing growth rate. Cumulative new - installed capacity was 230.61GW, up 64.73% year - on - year, also with a narrowing growth rate [99]. 06 Electrolytic Aluminum Supply - Demand Balance and Outlook - **Supply - Demand Balance**: In Q3, high production capacity utilization led to high output. With the inflow of Russian aluminum and weakening consumption, the market turned to a slight surplus. In Q4, there is a risk of power - rationing - induced production cuts in the southwest, and demand is expected to weaken further, leading to an increase in the surplus to about 129,000 tons [106].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report PE (Polyethylene) - Cost side support is unstable, production profit shows mixed trends, supply is expected to increase, import may recover but less than previous years, inventory follows seasonal patterns with a slight de - stocking expected at the end of the year, and demand is in a weak recovery with concerns about future orders. The overall fundamentals are under pressure, especially in December. It is recommended to consider short - selling opportunities on rallies, with the main contract expected to trade between 7000 - 7400 yuan/ton. For inter - month arbitrage, pay attention to the L01 - 05 spread for reverse arbitrage opportunities [3]. PP (Polypropylene) - Cost side support fluctuates, production profit is generally below zero, supply will remain abundant in the fourth quarter due to new capacity and restarted devices, import may increase seasonally but less than before, export is expected to be stable, and demand is weak with limited upward drive. The overall supply - demand structure is loose, especially in December. It is advised to short - sell on rallies, with the main contract expected to fluctuate between 6800 - 7200 yuan/ton. Also, focus on the 01 - 05 contract spread for reverse arbitrage opportunities [5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Review - In July, new capacity and restarted devices increased supply pressure, but oil price rebound and policy support boosted polyolefin prices. In August, oil price was weak, and supply and demand were in a state of "supply - strong, demand - weak". In September, cost support weakened, and the supply - demand contradiction was prominent, leading to a continuous decline in polyolefin futures prices. Taking LLDPE as an example, its price first rose slightly and then fell continuously in the third quarter, with a high of 7412 yuan/ton and a low of 7301 yuan/ton [10][12]. 3.2 PE: Weak Demand Support in Peak Season, Rising Future Supply Pressure Supply Side - **Maintenance**: The maintenance loss is expected to decrease seasonally in the fourth quarter. As of September 26, the current maintenance loss was 11.37 tons, and the total maintenance - related capacity in the fourth quarter is 258 tons, mainly concentrated in November and December [21][26]. - **New Capacity**: There will be 240 tons of new PE capacity in the fourth quarter, mainly oil - based devices [29]. - **Operation Rate**: The capacity utilization rate is expected to rise seasonally in the fourth quarter. As of September 26, it was 81.84%, up 4.6% from the end of the previous quarter [34]. - **Output**: Output is expected to continue to increase in the fourth quarter but with a seasonally narrowing growth rate. In August, it reached 282.72 tons/month, a 17% increase from the same period last year [39]. - **Import Profit and Volume**: The average import profit in the third quarter showed a quarter - on - quarter recovery. In August, the import volume decreased, and it is expected to recover in the fourth quarter but be less than previous years [43][48]. - **Production Profit**: LDPE and HDPE production profits recovered, while LLDPE production profit declined overall [53]. - **Inventory**: In the third quarter, inventory followed seasonal patterns. In the fourth quarter, it is expected to first rise and then fall, with low pressure on social inventory accumulation and a slight de - stocking expected at the end of the year [57]. Demand Side - **Downstream Product Operation Rate**: In the seasonal peak season, the operation rates of agricultural film and packaging film gradually recovered but were weaker than in previous years. The operation rates of hollow and drawing products also recovered quarter - on - quarter but were significantly lower year - on - year [61][65]. - **Downstream Product Orders**: Orders increased quarter - on - quarter but were still inferior to previous years [69]. - **Downstream Product Inventory**: With the arrival of the peak season, the raw material inventory of downstream products increased quarter - on - quarter but was significantly lower year - on - year [73]. 3.3 PP: Continuous Supply Pressure, Insufficient Demand Drive Supply Side - **Operation Rate**: It is expected to first rise and then fall in the fourth quarter. As of September 26, the overall operation rate was 75.52%, down 3.78% from the end of the previous quarter [79]. - **Maintenance**: The maintenance plan in the fourth quarter is less than in the third quarter. The estimated maintenance loss in the third quarter was 209 tons, and it is expected to decrease in the fourth quarter [87]. - **Capacity**: There will be 295 tons of new PP capacity in the fourth quarter, mainly in December [89]. - **Output**: Output is expected to remain at a high level in the fourth quarter due to new capacity and restarted devices [93]. - **Import**: Import profit decreased quarter - on - quarter, and the import volume in August decreased. It is expected to recover in the fourth quarter [97]. - **Export**: The export volume is at a high level in recent years and is expected to be stable in the fourth quarter [101]. - **Production Profit**: Production profits varied, with an overall fluctuation below zero [105]. - **Inventory**: Trader inventory may steadily decrease, producer inventory is not expected to accumulate significantly, and port inventory may slightly increase [109]. Demand Side - **Downstream Product Operation Rate**: The operation rate first decreased and then increased in the third quarter, similar to the second quarter, but most were lower than in previous years. It is expected to have little improvement in the fourth quarter [113]. - **Downstream Product Orders**: Orders are expected to first increase and then decrease in the fourth quarter [117]. - **Downstream Product Inventory**: The pressure on raw material and finished - product inventory is not high currently, but there is an expectation of accumulation in the fourth quarter [119]. - **Downstream End - User Situation**: The production of three major white - goods showed different trends in the third quarter. In the fourth quarter, air - conditioner production may increase, while refrigerator and washing - machine production may first rise and then fall, with limited production increase due to high inventory [124][128]. 3.4 Spread Structure and Warehouse Receipt Quantity - **Inter - month Spread**: The L01 - 05 spread is expected to first rise and then fall, the PP01 - 05 spread is expected to weaken, and the L - PP spread is expected to fluctuate [133][135]. - **Warehouse Receipt Quantity**: The warehouse receipt quantities of PE and PP have continuously climbed to high levels in recent years [138]. 3.5 Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - **PE**: The supply - demand difference is expected to be relatively balanced from October to November, but the supply pressure will significantly increase in December [146]. - **PP**: The overall supply - demand structure in the fourth quarter is loose, with the most prominent supply pressure in December [147].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - OPEC+ will continue to increase production, with the first - stage production increase plan likely to end around autumn this year. Global crude oil supply surplus signs will gradually appear, bringing long - term bearish pressure on oil prices. However, oil prices may spike in the short - term due to geopolitical factors. Oil prices may remain under pressure in the second half of the year and perform weaker than in the first half [5][11]. Content Summaries Based on Related Catalogs OPEC+ Production Increase Plan - From October 2025, OPEC+ will implement a daily production adjustment of 137,000 barrels, far lower than the 555,000 barrels per day in August and September. The 1.65 million barrels per day of production can be partially or fully restored according to market conditions, and will be carried out gradually [1]. - This year, OPEC+ has implemented multiple production increase plans. From April to September, the cumulative increase is 2.467 million barrels per day, covering the 2.2 million barrels per day reduction in 2024. The production increase in October will start the process of restoring the 1.66 million barrels per day reduction quota, originally planned to last until the end of 2026 [5]. Production Increase Execution - As of July, the actual production increase of OPEC+ was 916,000 barrels per day, equivalent to 66.8% of the latest production increase plan from April to July. The actual production increase from April to July was lower than the planned amount [7]. Oil Price Trends and Influencing Factors - Since late January, Brent crude oil has shown a volatile downward trend. Factors include OPEC+ maintaining production cuts, geopolitical tensions, US tariff policies, and OPEC+ production increase announcements [8]. - In August, due to the easing of geopolitical situations and continuous OPEC+ production increases, international crude oil prices oscillated at a low level [9]. Other Institutions' Views on Future Oil Prices - Deutsche Bank expects WTI crude oil price to stay at $62 per barrel, $3 lower than Brent [12]. - HSBC maintains its forecast of $65 per barrel for Brent crude in Q4 2025, but the downside risk from increased market supply surplus is rising [12]. - SOCAR believes the biggest uncertainty in the current crude oil market comes from geopolitical risks [12]. - Capital Economics expects a large surplus in the oil market in Q4 this year and Brent crude to fall to $60 per barrel by the end of 2025 [12]. - Goldman Sachs predicts that the oil supply surplus in 2026 will increase from 1.7 million barrels per day to 1.9 million barrels per day, and the average prices of Brent and WTI crude will reach $56 and $52 per barrel respectively [14]. - S&P expects Brent crude to drop to about $55 per barrel by the end of the year [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Alumina is expected to remain range - bound in September. The influence of the rainy season in Guinea persists, but bauxite supply is sufficient. The supply - surplus pattern of alumina will continue as production profits are considerable, and the demand has reached its peak. The "anti - involution" sentiment has subsided, but the expectation still exists [6]. - Electrolytic aluminum prices are likely to move in a volatile manner. The rainy season in Guinea affects ore mining and transportation, but alumina remains in surplus. The production capacity of electrolytic aluminum is close to the "ceiling", and downstream demand is weak due to the off - season. With the expected Fed rate cut in September, the aluminum price may oscillate, with attention paid to the resistance level of 20,800 for the main - continuous contract [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Viewpoints and Strategies - **Alumina**: Supply is in surplus as bauxite supply is sufficient despite the Guinea rainy season, and production profits are good. Demand is at a high level. As of August 29, alumina inventory was 431.6 million tons, up 6.65% year - on - year. In September, it may maintain a volatile trend [6]. - **Electrolytic aluminum**: Supply remains strong with high - level production capacity and limited future increments. Downstream demand is weak in the off - season. As of August 29, electrolytic aluminum inventory was 61 million tons, returning to a medium level in the past six years. In September, prices may oscillate, and attention should be paid to the 20,800 resistance level [6]. 3.2 Bauxite Supply Situation Review and Outlook - **Domestic Production**: In July, China's bauxite production was 5.77 million tons, up 3.22% year - on - year, at a medium level in the past four years. Output in Guangxi, Guizhou, Henan, and Shanxi increased slightly [9]. - **Imports**: In July, imports rose again, with the cumulative import volume from January to July reaching 123 million tons, up 33.88% year - on - year. Due to the rainy season, future imports may decline [14]. - **Country - wise Shipment**: In July, shipments from Australia to China continued to rise, while those from Guinea decreased monthly, with July's shipment at 5.3725 million tons, down 39.52% year - on - year. Port inventory growth has weakened, and as of August 29, it was 28.65 million tons, at a moderately high level in the past six years [18]. 3.3 Alumina Fundamental Situation Review and Outlook - **Production Profit and Capacity Utilization**: In July, the production cost of alumina rose slightly to 2,844.9 yuan/ton, and the profit dropped to about 345 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rates in Guangxi, Henan, Shandong, and Shanxi increased [23][24]. - **Production Volume**: In July, global metallurgical - grade alumina production was 12.95 million tons, up 0.91% year - on - year, and China's was 7.724 million tons, up 8.9% year - on - year, both at the highest levels in the past six years [29]. - **Net Exports**: In July, China maintained a net - export status of alumina, with the net import volume in June at - 1.035 million tons, down 36.01% year - on - year, at the lowest level in the past six years [34]. - **Inventory**: Since the beginning of the year, alumina inventory has been accumulating due to sufficient raw materials and high production. As of August 29, it was 431.6 million tons, up 6.65% year - on - year [37]. 3.4 Electrolytic Aluminum Supply - side Situation Review and Outlook - **Cost and Profit**: In July, the alumina price increased, but the electrolytic aluminum production cost dropped to 15,932 yuan/ton, and the profit rose to 4,775 yuan/ton [42]. - **Production Volume**: In July, global electrolytic aluminum production was 6.373 million tons, up 2.71% year - on - year, and China's was 3.778 million tons, up 2.49% year - on - year, at a high level in the past six years [46]. - **Imports**: In August, the SHFE - LME ratio of electrolytic aluminum oscillated downward and then rebounded to above 7.96 by August 29. In July, imports reached 5.183 million tons, at the highest level in the past six years [51]. - **Inventory**: In July, the molten - aluminum ratio decreased to 70.78%. In August, social inventory continued to accumulate, reaching 61 million tons by August 29, at a medium level in the past six years. LME inventory also increased in August, but its support is weakening [54][57]. 3.5 Electrolytic Aluminum Downstream and Terminal Consumption Review and Outlook - **Downstream Industry Start - up Rates**: In July, the start - up rate of aluminum profiles dropped to 43.63% due to the real - estate slump and the off - season, and that of aluminum sheets and strips dropped to 69.41% [61][62]. - **Exports**: Affected by trade barriers, the exports of most aluminum products were weak. From January to July, the cumulative exports of aluminum profiles, sheets, and foils decreased year - on - year, while those of aluminum cables increased by 33.15% [66][71]. - **Real Estate**: From January to July, the new - construction area decreased by 19.4% year - on - year, with a narrowing decline, the construction area decreased by 9.2% year - on - year, and the completion area decreased by 16.5% year - on - year, with an expanding decline [76][81]. - **Automobiles**: From January to July, the cumulative automobile production was 18.211 million vehicles, up 12.59% year - on - year. In July, the production - sales ratio dropped to 1.0009. For new - energy vehicles, the cumulative production from January to July was 8.2121 million vehicles, up 38.48% year - on - year, and the production - sales ratio in July dropped to 1.0153 [85][90]. - **Home Appliances**: From January to July, the cumulative production and sales of three major white - goods increased at different rates. Refrigerator production increased by 3.55% year - on - year, air - conditioner by 6.05%, and washing - machine by 10.12%. Sales of refrigerators increased by 3.83% year - on - year, air - conditioners by 7.63%, and washing - machines by 9.48% [95]. - **Photovoltaic**: In July, the cumulative photovoltaic installed capacity was 1109.6 GW, up 50.8% year - on - year, and the cumulative new - installed capacity was 223.25 GW, up 80.73% year - on - year, with a significant slowdown in the growth rate [99].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Entering the traditional peak season, it is necessary to focus on the physical volume of infrastructure projects and policy stimulus on the consumer side. After the introduction of the steady - growth plan, the decline of steel prices is expected to be limited, and the upside space depends on demand [7]. - In August, the manufacturing PMI index rebounded slightly but remained below 50%; the construction business activity index continued to decline. Fundamentally, the steel production profit decreased significantly, and combined with military parade - related production restrictions, steel supply is expected to weaken slightly. On the demand side, for building materials, it remains to be seen whether special bonds can be converted into physical infrastructure work; for coils, new orders and raw material inventories in the PMI have strengthened slightly, providing some support for demand. In terms of inventory, steel has been continuously accumulating, and the pressure on rebar warehouse receipts is extremely high [12]. Summary by Directory 01 Viewpoint Strategy - **Core Logic**: The manufacturing PMI in August rebounded slightly but was still below 50%, and the construction business activity index declined. Steel production profit decreased, and supply may weaken. Rebar demand is weak, while coil demand has support. Steel inventory is accumulating, and it is necessary to focus on demand changes and the inventory - reduction inflection point [12]. - **Market Situation**: In August, steel prices fluctuated weakly. Rebar prices dropped by about 100 yuan/ton, and hot - rolled coil prices dropped by about 30 yuan/ton. The closing price of rebar contract 10 on August 29 was 3090 yuan/ton, a 3.59% decline compared to the end of July. The basis of rebar at the end of August was 180 yuan/ton, a 15 - yuan increase compared to the end of July. The closing price of hot - rolled coil contract 10 on August 29 was 3355 yuan/ton, a 1.03% decline compared to the end of July. The basis of hot - rolled coil at the end of August was 34 yuan/ton, a 14 - yuan increase compared to the end of July. Steel futures positions increased slightly, and trading volume decreased. The hot - rolled coil futures price curve shifted from Contango to Back [12]. - **Spread**: As of August 29, the rebar - iron ore spread (main contract) was 2302.5 yuan/ton, a 123.5 - yuan decrease compared to the end of July; the rebar - iron ore ratio was 3.92, a 0.19 decrease compared to the end of July. The hot - rolled coil - rebar spread (contract 10) was 265 yuan/ton, an 80 - yuan increase compared to the end of July; the spot hot - rolled coil - rebar spread in Shanghai was 110 yuan/ton, a 70 - yuan increase compared to the end of April [12]. - **Supply**: In August, the iron - making cost increased, but steel mills still had profit margins, and production remained at a high level of 240 million tons per day. The weekly production of rebar in sample steel mills was about 2.2 million tons, an increase compared to July, and the weekly production of hot - rolled coils was about 3.2 million tons, with some molten iron flowing to hot - rolled coils in August [12]. - **Demand**: Rebar demand weakened, with some support from infrastructure; coil demand had support. The average weekly apparent demand for rebar in August was 2 million tons, a decrease compared to July and basically the same as the same period last year. The apparent demand for coils was maintained at 3 - 3.2 million tons per week, a slight decline compared to July but higher year - on - year. The profitability rate of 247 sample steel enterprises in August remained above 60%, but the profit margin decreased [12]. - **Inventory**: Rebar and hot - rolled coils continued to accumulate inventory, with significant pressure on rebar inventory. As of the week of August 29, the rebar mill inventory was 1.6962 million tons, a 74,700 - ton increase compared to the end of July; the social inventory was 4.5377 million tons, a 696,300 - ton increase compared to the end of July. The hot - rolled coil mill inventory was 796,800 tons, a 3800 - ton increase compared to the end of July; the social inventory was 2.8578 million tons, a 171,300 - ton increase compared to the end of July [12]. - **Strategy**: Steel is expected to fluctuate. The range of rebar contract 01 is [3050 - 3200], and the range of hot - rolled coil contract 01 is [3250 - 3400] [12]. 02 Macro Level - **Macro News**: Internationally, the market expects the Fed to start an interest - rate cut cycle. Domestically, the PMI in August rebounded month - on - month, the profits of large - scale industrial enterprises shrank, but the profits of the steel industry increased significantly year - on - year [14]. - **Event Interpretation**: The introduction of the "Steel Industry Steady - Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" implies that with production volume control, steel prices may increase. Attention should be paid to supply and demand. The "production - reduction regulation" is expected to be mainly through administrative means. In the short term, the plan is expected to have limited impact on steel prices, but it can support steel prices in the second half of the year, and the upside space depends on demand [17]. 03 Spot and Basis - **Steel Price**: In August, steel prices fluctuated weakly. Rebar prices dropped by about 100 yuan/ton, and hot - rolled coil prices dropped by about 30 yuan/ton. Due to the construction off - season, construction PMI declined, and the demand for building materials was limited. The downstream demand for coils was higher than that for building materials, but the price increase was difficult [20]. - **Rebar Futures**: The closing price of rebar contract 10 on August 29 was 3090 yuan/ton, a 3.59% decline compared to the end of July. The basis of rebar at the end of August was 180 yuan/ton, a 15 - yuan increase compared to the end of July. The rebar futures showed a "first - oscillate, then - decline" trend in August. The weak demand at the finished - product end and high supply pressure affected the price [22]. - **Rebar Futures Positions and Volume**: In August, the unilateral positions of rebar futures remained around 3 million lots, and at the end of the month, it was 3.17 million lots, a 230,000 - lot increase compared to the end of July. The weighted trading volume in August was 37.3 million lots, a 17.95 - million - lot decrease compared to July [24]. - **Rebar Inter - period Spread**: The rebar price curve became steeper, and the curve center moved down. The 5 - 10 spread of rebar at the end of August was 118 yuan/ton, a 34 - yuan increase compared to the end of July; the 10 - 1 spread was - 70 yuan/ton, a 16 - yuan decrease compared to the end of July [28][31]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil Futures**: As of August 29, the closing price of hot - rolled coil contract 10 was 3355 yuan/ton, a 1.03% decline compared to the end of July. The basis of hot - rolled coil at the end of August was 34 yuan/ton, a 14 - yuan increase compared to the end of July. The hot - rolled coil price decline was lower than that of rebar due to relatively strong demand [35]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil Futures Positions**: In August, the unilateral positions of hot - rolled coil futures first decreased and then increased slightly. As of August 29, it was 2.28 million lots, a 20,000 - lot increase compared to the end of July [38]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil Inter - period Spread**: The hot - rolled coil futures price curve shifted from Contango to Back, and the curve center moved down. The 5 - 10 spread became positive, and as of August 30, it was - 3 yuan/ton, a 15 - yuan increase compared to the end of July; the 10 - 1 spread was 9 yuan/ton, a 16 - yuan increase compared to the end of July [41][43]. 04 Spread - **Rebar - Iron Ore Ratio**: As of August 29, the rebar - iron ore spread (main contract) was 2302.5 yuan/ton, a 123.5 - yuan decrease compared to the end of July; the rebar - iron ore ratio was 3.92, a 0.19 decrease compared to the end of July. In August, the iron ore main contract rose 1.09%, causing the rebar - iron ore ratio to decline [47]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil - Rebar Spread**: As of August 29, the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread (contract 10) was 265 yuan/ton, an 80 - yuan increase compared to the end of July; the spot hot - rolled coil - rebar spread in Shanghai was 110 yuan/ton, a 70 - yuan increase compared to the end of April. The spread widened due to differences in downstream demand [50]. 05 Supply - **Steel Production**: In August, the weekly production of five major steel products was about 8.7 million tons, an increase of about 1 million tons year - on - year. The weekly production of rebar in sample steel mills was about 2.2 million tons, an increase compared to July, and the weekly production of hot - rolled coils was about 3.2 million tons, with some molten iron flowing to hot - rolled coils [54]. - **Regional Rebar Production**: Rebar production increased in East and South China but decreased in North China. The rebar inventory in Hangzhou continued to accumulate, and the pressure on warehouse receipts at Jiangsu Huilong Port was extremely high [58]. - **Rebar Production Process**: The long - process rebar weekly production was about 1.89 million tons, basically the same as in July. The short - process rebar weekly production was about 300,000 tons, an increase of about 50,000 tons per week compared to July [61]. - **Blast Furnace Iron - Making**: In August, the iron - making production of 247 steel enterprises remained at a high level of 2.4 million tons per day, and the blast furnace operating rate was above 83% [64]. - **Electric Furnace Production**: In August, the operating rate of 87 independent electric furnace steel mills was about 75%, and the scrap consumption was 2.6 - 2.65 million tons per week. The scrap inventory remained at about 5 million tons, basically unchanged month - on - month [66]. - **Cost**: In August, coke prices increased in three rounds. By the end of the month, the含税 cost of molten iron in Hebei was 2530 yuan/ton, a 110 - yuan increase compared to the end of July. The scrap price at the end of August was 2395 yuan/ton, a 35 - yuan increase compared to the previous month. The iron - scrap spread strengthened [67]. 06 Demand - **Steel Demand**: In August, the average weekly apparent demand for rebar was 2 million tons, a decrease compared to July and basically the same as the same period last year. The apparent demand for coils was maintained at 3 - 3.2 million tons per week, a slight decline compared to July but higher year - on - year [70]. - **Steel Mill Profitability**: In August, the profitability rate of 247 sample steel enterprises remained above 60%, but it continued to decline slightly. After the seventh round of coke price increases, steel mill profits decreased, but there was still some profit margin [73]. - **Steel Production Profit**: The rebar production profit decreased gradually in August. The profit of blast - furnace - produced rebar on August 29 was 33 yuan/ton, a 194 - yuan decrease compared to the end of July. The hot - rolled coil gross profit decreased, and the cold - rolled coil gross profit turned negative [76][81]. - **Construction Industry Demand**: In August, the cement shipment volume decreased year - on - year. The construction business activity index was 49.1%, a 1.5 - percentage - point decrease compared to the previous month. The concrete and asphalt sales in infrastructure were relatively strong [85][88]. - **Manufacturing Industry Demand**: In September 2025, the combined production schedule of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines decreased by 7.2% year - on - year. The manufacturing PMI in August was 49.4%, a 0.1 - percentage - point increase compared to the previous month, remaining below the boom - bust line [91][97]. 07 Inventory - **Steel Inventory**: In August, the social inventory of five major steel products continued to accumulate, and the mill and social inventories were close to the same period last year. As of the week of August 29, the mill inventory of five major steel products was 4.215 million tons, a 119,800 - ton increase compared to the end of July; the social inventory was 10.4638 million tons, a 1.0401 - million - ton increase compared to the end of July [101]. - **Rebar Inventory**: The rebar mill inventory was basically flat, and the social inventory continued to accumulate, higher than the same period last year. As of the week of August 29, the rebar mill inventory was 1.6962 million tons, a 74,700 - ton increase compared to the end of July; the social inventory was 4.5377 million tons, a 696,300 - ton increase compared to the end of July [104]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil Inventory**: The hot - rolled coil mill and social inventories continued to accumulate slightly, and the inventory level was low. As of the week of August 29, the hot - rolled coil mill inventory was 796,800 tons, a 3800 - ton increase compared to the end of July; the social inventory was 2.8578 million tons, a 171,300 - ton increase compared to the end of July [107].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For oils, they are expected to experience a short - term correction but have good fundamentals and remain bullish in the medium to long term. Wait for the opportunity to go long after the correction, and consider the palm oil 1 - 5 reverse spread [8]. - For protein meals, they are expected to mainly trade in a range, with a phased rebound after over - selling. Pay attention to the band - trading opportunities of oversold rebounds, short - term positive spreads of soybean meal 1 - 5, and in the short term, the oil - meal ratio will decline, while in the medium to long term, oils will be stronger than meals [11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 01 Viewpoint Strategy Oils - **Core Logic**: The good growth of US soybeans, upcoming harvest in September, and large export pressure, along with the decline of Brazilian soybean exports and increased Argentine exports, affect the soybean market. EPA's bio - fuel decision is pending. CBOT soybeans trade in a range, and soybean imports and refinery operating rates are expected to decrease in September. Indonesian palm oil production increases but inventory is low, and Malaysian palm oil production changes little and is expected to have a small inventory build - up. Canadian rapeseed harvest is slow but expected to speed up, and Canadian rapeseed imports will decrease while Australian imports increase, with rapeseed oil inventory continuing to decline. Trade policies between China, Canada, and the US need attention [8]. - **Cost and Profit**: As of August 29, the arrival cost of Brazilian soybeans for October delivery is 3878 yuan/ton with a盘面 gross profit of 51 yuan/ton; the import cost of palm oil (September shipment) is 9560 yuan/ton, with a spot profit of - 409 yuan/ton and a 盘面 profit of - 103 yuan/ton for September shipment; the theoretical import cost of Canadian rapeseed (September shipment) is 4468 yuan/ton (excluding margin), with a spot crushing profit of 815 yuan/ton and a 盘面 crushing profit of 724 yuan/ton [8]. - **Supply**: The estimated soybean import volume in September is 9.6 million tons, rapeseed is 130,000 tons, and palm oil is 710,000 tons [8]. - **Demand**: In August, the total trading volume of soybean oil in key domestic refineries increased by 67.31% month - on - month, palm oil increased by 88.53%, and rapeseed oil increased by 33.33% [8]. - **Inventory**: As of August 22, the total commercial inventory of the three major oils was 2.4091 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.75% [8]. - **Strategy**: Wait for the opportunity to go long after the correction and consider the palm oil 1 - 5 reverse spread [8]. Protein Meals - **Core Logic**: Similar to the soybean situation in the oil analysis, the supply pressure of US soybeans increases in September, and Brazilian soybean exports decline. Canadian rapeseed harvest is expected to speed up, and Canadian rapeseed imports will decrease. Trade policies between China, Canada, and the US need attention. It is expected that soybean and rapeseed meals will trade in a range and rebound after over - selling [11]. - **Cost and Profit**: As of August 29, the arrival cost of Brazilian soybeans for October delivery is 3878 yuan/ton with a 盘面 gross profit of 51 yuan/ton; the theoretical import cost of Canadian rapeseed (September shipment) is 4468 yuan/ton (excluding margin), with a spot crushing profit of 815 yuan/ton and a 盘面 crushing profit of 724 yuan/ton [11]. - **Supply**: The estimated soybean import volume in September is 9.6 million tons, and rapeseed is 130,000 tons [11]. - **Demand**: In August, the total trading volume of soybean meal increased by 13.2% month - on - month and 16.24% year - on - year. The pick - up volume of rapeseed meal in coastal refineries decreased by 28,200 tons compared with the previous month, and the consumption of imported rapeseed meal is also at a low level [11]. - **Inventory**: In the 34th week, the refinery soybean meal inventory was 1.0533 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 29.71%, and it is expected to gradually decline in September. As of August 29, the inventory days of feed enterprises' soybean meal were 8.87 days, an increase of 1.12 days compared with the end of July. The coastal refinery rapeseed meal inventory was 21,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 36.36%, and the imported rapeseed meal inventory decreased from a high level [11]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the band - trading opportunities of oversold rebounds, short - term positive spreads of soybean meal 1 - 5, and in the short term, the oil - meal ratio will decline, while in the medium to long term, oils will be stronger than meals [11]. 02 2025 August Oil and Meal Market Review - **Oils**: In the first half of August, oils were bullish. The MPOB report was positive for palm oil, the USDA report was positive for CBOT soybeans, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed affected rapeseed oil. In the second half, due to risk warnings, news of Australian rapeseed purchases, and the digestion of positive reports, oils declined [14]. - **Protein Meals**: In the first half of August, they were bullish due to positive USDA and MPOB reports and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed. In the second half, they declined due to risk warnings, news of soybean reserves release, and expectations of trade negotiations [26]. 03 Oils and Oilseeds Fundamental Analysis International Situation - **Global Soybeans**: According to the USDA August supply - demand report, in the 2025/26 season, global soybean production is expected to be 426.39 million tons, consumption is 425.10 million tons, and inventory will slightly decrease. The production of major countries such as the US, Brazil, and Argentina will change, with the US production decreasing, Brazil increasing, and Argentina decreasing [33][36]. - **US Soybeans**: The planting area is expected to decrease, but the yield per acre is expected to increase. The weather is normal, and the growth is good. The 7 - month soybean crushing volume exceeded expectations, and the crushing profit is improving. The CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans declined in mid - to - late August, and Argentine soybean exports increased due to tariff cuts [39][53][60]. - **Palm Oil**: In June, Indonesian palm oil inventory continued to decline. In August, Malaysian palm oil production changed little, and the inventory build - up was lower than expected [63][70]. - **Canadian Rapeseed**: The harvest progress is slow, but it is expected to speed up due to less rainfall in the next half - month [77][82]. Domestic Situation - **Soybeans**: The procurement progress of different shipment months varies. It is expected that soybean imports will decrease from September to October. The refinery soybean inventory is high but expected to decrease. The import cost of soybeans first increased and then decreased in August, and the soybean crushing volume remained high [88][92][105]. - **Palm Oil**: The import cost first increased and then decreased, the import profit improved, the import volume was low in July, and it is expected to increase slightly in September [109][113][117]. - **Rapeseed**: The import cost of Canadian rapeseed is high, and the import volume is expected to decrease significantly. The refinery rapeseed inventory is low, the August crushing volume declined, and it is expected to continue to decline [122][130][139]. - **Inventory and Demand**: The inventory of the three major oils continued to build up to a high level, with different trends for each oil. The demand for oils improved in August. The refinery soybean meal inventory continued to build up but is expected to decline in September, and the demand for rapeseed meal is weak [143][151][154]. 04 Arbitrage Spread Tracking Oils Inter - period Spread - For some spreads, it is advisable to wait and see; for the palm oil 1 - 5 reverse spread, the position can be held [174]. Cross - variety Spread - For the spread of long soybean oil and short rapeseed oil, there may be a short - term repair opportunity; for others, it is advisable to wait and see [178]. Protein Meal Inter - period Spread - Short - term positive spreads of soybean meal 1 - 5 can be considered; for others, it is advisable to wait and see [183].