Morning session notice 早盘提示 | | | 研究员： 刘锦 从业资格：F0276812 交易咨询资格：Z0011862 联系方式：13633849418 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 11 月 21 日，美豆油生柴政策反复，印度进口棕榈油数据拉胯，棕榈油破位下跌拖 | | | | | 累连盘植物油整体回落。 | | | | | 豆油主力合约Y2601合约报收于8190元/吨，按收盘价日环下跌0.41%，日减仓20453 | | | | | 手； | | | | | 豆油次主力合约 Y2605 合约报收于 7982 元/吨，按收盘价日环比下跌 0.84%，日增 | | | | | 仓 14567 手; | | | | | 棕榈油主力合约 P2601 合约收盘价 8550 元/吨，按收盘价日环比下跌 1.11%，日增 | | | | | 仓 9248 手； | | | | | 棕榈油次主力合约 P2605 报收于 8668 元/吨，按收盘价日环比下跌 1.19%，日减仓 | | | | ...

Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 11 月 24 日星期一 重要事项: 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 格林大华期货研究院所有 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 研究员： 吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

更多精彩内容 请关注 格林大华期货 官方微信 研究员：刘洋 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com 期货从业资格证号：F3063825 期货交易咨询号：Z0016580 证监许可【2011】1288号 报告 债市延续横盘震荡 2025年11月21日 今年一季度30大中城市的商品房日均成交面积23.6万平米，同比增长2.5%。二季度30大中城市的商品房日均成交 面积26.5万平米，同比下降7.9%。今年三季度30大中城市商品房日均成交面积日均成交面积22万平米，同比下降 8%。10月30大中城市的商品房日均成交面积24万平米，同比下降27%，11月1日-20日日均成交面积23万平米，同 比下降32%。10月、11月同比下降幅度扩大是因为去年同期基数较高。全国商品房销售仍在磨底过程中。 本周国债期货多数主力合约延续上周的横盘震荡，仅30年期品种回调较多，全周收盘30年国债收跌0.43%，10年 国债涨0.04%，5年国债持平，2年国债涨0.01%。 国债期货一周行情复盘 数据来源：wind，格林大华 国债现券到期收益率曲线变动 11月21日收盘国债现券到期收益率曲线与11月14日相比总体变化不 ...

Report Title - Corn Bullish in the Short Term, Maintain Low-Buying Strategy; Pig Prices Grinding at the Bottom, Weak Oscillation in the Futures Market; Egg Spot Prices Oscillating at Low Levels, Near-Term Contracts Gaining Premium [2] Report Core Views - Corn is bullish in the short term, and the low-buying strategy remains unchanged. Pig prices are grinding at the bottom, and the futures market is weakly oscillating. Egg spot prices are oscillating at low levels, and near-term contracts are gaining premium [2][4][9][14] Corn Futures Important Information - Deep-processing enterprises' purchase prices in the Northeast and North China regions increased slightly, with the Northeast at 2036 yuan/ton (up 4 yuan/ton) and North China at 2263 yuan/ton (up 11 yuan/ton) [4] - On the 21st, the price in the northern port was weakly stable, and the southern port was relatively strong. The purchase price of second-grade new-season corn with 15% moisture at Jinzhou Port was about 2170 yuan/ton (down 5 yuan/ton), and the transaction price at Shekou Port was 2350 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan/ton) [4] - On the 21st, the number of corn futures warehouse receipts decreased by 573 to 68,764 [4] - The cost-effectiveness of corn for feed increased. As of November 20th, the wheat-corn price difference in Shandong was +280 yuan/ton, narrowing by 10 yuan/ton [4] - In October 2025, the total import volume of ordinary corn was 360,000 tons, the highest this year, with a year-on-year increase of 44%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative import volume was 1.31 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 90.02% [4] Market Logic - Short term: Spot prices are under pressure from concentrated supply but supported by warehouse purchases. After the seasonal selling pressure is released, prices are expected to stabilize and rise. Attention should be paid to the impact of continuous rain in North China on yield and grain quality [4] - Medium term: Conduct band trading around the new-season corn drivers, considering factors such as farmers' selling sentiment and downstream inventory building. Maintain a wide-range trading strategy [4] - Long term: Maintain the pricing logic of import substitution and planting cost, with a focus on policy guidance [4] Trading Strategy - Medium and long term: Maintain a range trading strategy; short term: Maintain the short-term low-buying strategy. For the 2601 contract, support is at 2150 - 2160, and the first resistance is at 2200. If it breaks through 2200, the resistance moves up to 2220 - 2230 [5] Pig Futures Important Information - On the 21st, the national average pig price was 11.58 yuan/kg, down 0.03 yuan/kg from the previous day. On the 22nd, prices in different regions were expected to be stable or slightly increase [9] - In September 2025, the number of fertile sows was 40.35 million, a quarterly decrease of 0.2%, still 103.46% of the normal level. The number of new-born piglets in the first half of the year was at a historical high, and the number in September continued to increase month-on-month, indicating an expected increase in pig supply before March next year [9] - As of November 20th, the average slaughter weight of pigs was 124.77 kg, an increase of 0.04 kg from the previous week [9] - On November 20th, the price difference between fat and lean pigs was 0.35 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day [9] - The China National Grain and Oils Information Center announced that from November 24th to 27th, a total of 9,000 tons of central frozen pork will be purchased and 9,000 tons will be sold [9] Market Logic - Short term: Farmers' willingness to hold back sales is increasing, and downstream consumption has improved due to the drop in temperature, leading to a halt in price decline. However, the short-term supply-demand imbalance persists, limiting the upside potential of prices. Attention should be paid to the impact of short-term purchases on market sentiment and the winter epidemic prevention situation [9] - Medium term: The increase in the number of new-born piglets from February to September (except in July) indicates an expected increase in pig supply before March next year, restricting price increases. Pig prices are in a low-level oscillation phase [9] - Long term: The number of fertile sows is still above the normal level, and production efficiency has increased year-on-year. If there is no major epidemic, the full-year pig production capacity will continue to be realized [9] Trading Strategy - Spot prices continue to grind at the bottom. Near-term contracts are oscillating to repair the basis. Short term: The price may break through the previous low and weaken further; Medium and long term: Wait for the effectiveness of farmers' capacity reduction. Far-term contracts are trading based on the expected difference in capacity reduction driven by policies. Pay attention to the actual change in the number of sows. Do not be overly bullish on far-term contracts before significant sow reduction [10] Egg Futures Important Information - On the 21st, the national egg price was stable. The average price in the main production areas was 2.82 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day, and the average price in the main sales areas was 3.26 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan/jin [14] - In October, the number of laying hens in production was about 1.359 billion, a month-on-month decrease of 0.66% and a year-on-year increase of 5.59%. The estimated number of laying hens in November is 1.36 billion, a month-on-month increase of 0.07% [15] Market Logic - Short term: Egg prices are under pressure but also supported. The number of culled hens has increased, slightly relieving the supply pressure. However, the high number of laying hens in production and the rising inventory limit the upside potential. Prices are expected to oscillate weakly [16] - Medium term: The supply-demand imbalance is difficult to reverse completely. The limited reduction in the age of culled hens and the incomplete release of supply pressure, combined with weak downstream consumption, suggest that prices may continue to trade in a low range. Attention should be paid to the scale and intensity of culling driven by low prices [16] - Long term: The continuous expansion of egg production scale may prolong the price bottoming period. Wait patiently for the capacity reduction process driven by over-culling [16] Trading Strategy - It was suggested in the morning report on Wednesday to gradually close out previous short positions. Currently, it is recommended to wait and see. Next week, continue to pay attention to the opportunity to trade the premium of near-term contracts after the price rallies [16] - Medium and long term: Focus on whether the culling behavior driven by low prices can be sustained and whether it can lead to actual capacity reduction. As of now, the capacity cannot be cleared before the second quarter of next year, and supply pressure remains. Whether the second quarter can be a turning point depends on the culling situation in the first quarter [16]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The steel and ore markets are expected to continue their oscillatory trends. For steel, the supply - demand situation is weak, and for ore, various factors lead to an expected oscillatory trend. A short - term trading strategy of short - term operations is recommended [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - **Production and Inventory**: The production of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and the five major steel products increased this period. The inventory of all decreased, with rebar's inventory reduction being more significant and hot - rolled coil's less so. The current social inventory of hot - rolled coil is still high. The total supply of the five major steel products was 849.91 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 15.53 million tons (1.9% increase). The total inventory was 1433.1 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 44.25 million tons (3% decrease). The weekly consumption was 894.16 million tons, with building material consumption increasing by 5.3% and plate consumption increasing by 3.2% week - on - week [5][11]. - **Profitability and Cost**: Electric - arc furnace steel is still at a loss. The steel mill profitability rate continued to decline to 37.66%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.3%. The cost side has strong support [5]. - **Price Forecast**: It is expected that rebar and hot - rolled coil will continue to oscillate. The resistance level of the rebar main contract is 3230, and the support level is 3000. The resistance level of hot - rolled coil is 3450, and the support level is 3200 [5]. Iron Ore - **Production and Inventory**: The daily pig iron output this week was 2.3628 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.6 million tons, and it is expected to fall below 2.3 million tons. The iron ore port inventory at 45 ports was 150.54 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 750,000 tons. The domestic iron ore arrival is low, but the shipment is active. The overseas port inventory is at the highest level since the fourth quarter. Mysteel statistics show that the daily average fine powder output of 186 domestic mining enterprises was 475,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 960,000 tons. The mining fine powder inventory was 758,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 162,000 tons [5][15]. - **Price Forecast**: It is expected that iron ore will continue to oscillate. The resistance level of the main 2601 contract is 833, and the support level is 750 [5]. Important News - On November 19, 2025, the mobilization meeting for the inspection of Beijing by the First Central Ecological and Environmental Protection Inspection Team was held, and all 10 inspection teams of the fifth batch of the third round achieved inspection entry [6]. - According to the latest production schedule data from Aowei Cloud Network, the domestic sales production schedule of air conditioners in December is 4.822 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 22.6%; the export production schedule is 9.074 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 8.2% [6]. - The National Bureau of Statistics shows that China's automobile production in October was 3.279 million units, a year - on - year increase of 11.2% [6]. - According to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs, in October 2025, China exported 5.97 million tons of steel plates, a year - on - year decrease of 22.6%; from January to October, the cumulative export was 60.45 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.5% [6]. - In October 2025, the national crude steel production was 72 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.1%, with a daily output of 2.3226 million tons/day, a month - on - month decrease of 5.2%; pig iron production was 65.55 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.9%, with a daily output of 2.1145 million tons/day, a month - on - month decrease of 4%; steel production was 118.64 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.9%, with a daily output of 3.8271 million tons/day, a month - on - month decrease of 7.6%. From January to October, the cumulative national crude steel production was 818 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.9%, with a cumulative daily output of 2.6904 million tons; pig iron production was 711 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8%, with a cumulative daily output of 2.34 million tons; steel production was 1.218 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.7%, with a cumulative daily output of 4.0052 million tons [6]. - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment stated that after approval by the Party Central Committee and the State Council, the fifth batch of the third - round central ecological and environmental protection inspections have been fully launched. Routine inspections will be carried out on Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, and multiple central enterprises such as Ansteel Group Co., Ltd., China Baowu Steel Group Co., Ltd., and China National Coal Group Co., Ltd., with an inspection entry period of one month [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global economy is entering the top - region due to the continuous wrong policies in the United States [2] - Many Chinese stocks look "very attractive" as global valuations rise [2] - AI is a historical transformation of the computing architecture, and the investment is shifting from infrastructure to certain types of enterprises [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Global Economy - Nvidia's Q3 financial report shows revenue of $57.006 billion, a 62% year - on - year and 22% quarter - on - quarter increase; net profit is $31.91 billion, a 65% year - on - year and 21% quarter - on - quarter increase. Q4 revenue is expected to reach $65 billion, with a 2% margin [1] - At the last month's monetary policy meeting, Fed policymakers were divided on whether to cut interest rates in December, and those who thought no more cuts were needed outnumbered those in favor, while some centrists awaited data [1] - The US government plans to buy up to 10 large nuclear reactors, possibly funded by a $550 billion investment fund from Japan, with up to $80 billion for new nuclear reactor construction [1] - High - end technology giants' 2026 capital expenditure estimate has soared to $533 billion, and the investment focus is shifting to platform - type companies benefiting from AI revenue growth and productivity - enhancing enterprises [1][2] - AMD, Cisco and Saudi AI startup Humain will set up a joint - venture to build up to 1GW of AI data centers in the Middle East by 2030, with a 100MW project starting in 2026 [1] - Barclays believes cloud service providers will spend over $2.5 trillion in the next five years, boosting copper demand and bringing investment prosperity to mineral - exporting countries [1] - xAI plans to cooperate with Humain to build a 500MW data center in Saudi Arabia using Nvidia chips [1] AI and Technology - Huang Renxun says AI is a shift from CPU to GPU, and China may win the AI race due to favorable regulations and low energy costs [1][2] - Gemini 3 Pro has a 72.7% accuracy in screen - shot understanding, potentially reshaping AI - computer interaction [2] Stock Market - High - end technology giants' 2026 capital expenditure estimate has soared to $533 billion, and many Chinese stocks are "very attractive" according to Goldman Sachs [1][2] - US retail investors are the biggest net buyers in the US stock market this year, especially in the options market [2] Consumption and Employment - US household excess savings from the pandemic are mostly depleted, and consumer slowdown has spread to middle - income groups [2] - US corporate layoffs in October were 153,074, a 183% increase from September and nearly three times the same period last year, raising economic concerns [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report recommends a long position for IH, IF, IC in stock index futures and a flat position for IM [1]. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall trend of the two major stock market indices on Wednesday was first down and then up, with value - type indices stronger than growth - type indices. The Chinese stock market is expected to continue its upward trend in 2026, with a relatively gentle upward space for the indices [1][2][3]. - The insurance industry's 1 - 9 monthly premium growth is about 52,000 billion yuan. According to the implementation plan for the entry of medium - and long - term funds into the market, it can bring a net increase of 150 billion yuan of funds to the stock market each month [2][3]. - The consumption sector in China has valuation advantages, with optional and necessary consumption discounted by 40% and 10% respectively compared to the global average, presenting "Alpha" opportunities [1]. - The power and energy storage lithium - battery industries in China have good development prospects. The power lithium - battery shipments are expected to nearly triple in the next 10 years, and the energy - storage lithium - battery shipments are expected to double in the next 5 years and nearly triple in the next 10 years [1][3]. - AI has become a new driving force for corporate development. For example, Baidu's AI revenue reached 10 billion yuan in the third quarter, and AI shopping agents are expected to bring up to $115 billion in incremental value to the US market by 2030 [1][2]. - The Shanghai Composite Index is expected to resume its oscillating upward trend and return above 4,000 points. It is recommended to mainly allocate long positions in stock index futures based on the Shanghai 50 Index and the CSI 300 Index [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - On Wednesday, the major indices of the two markets showed a differentiated trend, first falling and then rising. The trading volume of the two markets was 1.72 trillion yuan, showing a contraction. The CSI 300 Index rose 20 points to 4,588, a 0.44% increase; the Shanghai 50 Index rose 17 points to 3,020, a 0.58% increase; the CSI 500 Index fell 28 points to 7,122, a 0.40% decrease; the CSI 1000 Index fell 60 points to 7,387, a 0.82% decrease [1]. - Among industry and theme ETFs, gold - stock ETFs, non - ferrous 60 ETFs, etc. led the gains, while media ETFs, film and television ETFs, etc. led the losses. Among the sector indices of the two markets, the fishery, precious metals, etc. led the gains, and coke processing, radio and television, etc. led the losses [1]. - The settlement funds of stock index futures for the CSI 500, CSI 300, Shanghai 50, and CSI 1000 indices had net outflows of 2.2 billion, 1.9 billion, 400 million, and 200 million yuan respectively [1]. Important Information - Morgan Stanley expects the Chinese stock market to rise further in 2026, continuing this year's strong upward trend, with a relatively gentle upward space for the indices [1][2][3]. - UBS believes that the valuation of China's consumption sector is at a global low, with optional and necessary consumption discounted by 40% and 10% respectively compared to the global average, and there are "Alpha" opportunities in some sub - sectors [1]. - The chairman of Gaogong Lithium Battery expects that China's power lithium - battery shipments will exceed 1.05 TWh in 2025, and will nearly triple in the next 10 years; the energy - storage lithium - battery shipments will reach 600 GWh in 2025, double in the next 5 years, and nearly triple in the next 10 years [1][3]. - Baidu's AI revenue reached 10 billion yuan in the third quarter, a year - on - year increase of 50%, which is expected to drive its valuation repair [1]. - The price of lithium iron phosphate has increased by about 10% since October, but the industry still faces cost pressure [1]. - The China Hydrogen Energy Promotion Association and 38 electrolyzer - related enterprises jointly issued an initiative to promote the healthy development of the electrolyzer industry [2]. - Gemini 3 Pro has excellent visual understanding ability, which may reshape the interaction mode of AI operating computers [2]. - Microsoft and NVIDIA plan to invest up to $5 billion and $10 billion respectively in Anthropic, and Anthropic will purchase $30 billion of Azure computing power from Microsoft [2]. - AI shopping agents are expected to bring up to $115 billion in incremental value to the US market by 2030, reshaping the shopping and advertising patterns [2]. - In September, countries and regions outside the US held $9.25 trillion in US Treasury bonds, with Japan increasing its holdings to $1.19 trillion [2]. - In October 2025, US companies announced 153,000 layoffs, the highest in the same period in the past two decades [2]. Market Logic - The two major stock market indices on Wednesday showed a differentiated trend, first falling and then rising. The Chinese stock market is expected to continue its upward trend in 2026, with a relatively gentle upward space for the indices. The insurance industry can bring incremental funds to the stock market, and the lithium - battery industry has good development prospects. The US is planning large - scale data center projects, and China is expected to win in the AI field [2][3]. Future Outlook - The two major stock market indices on Wednesday showed a differentiated trend, first falling and then rising. Insurance funds have increased their investment in stocks this year. The Chinese stock market is expected to have another good year in 2026. The Shanghai Composite Index is expected to resume its oscillating upward trend and return above 4,000 points [3]. Trading Strategies - For stock index futures directional trading, long positions should be mainly allocated based on the Shanghai 50 Index and the CSI 300 Index. For stock index option trading, one should watch more and act less on the far - month deep out - of - the - money call options of the stock index [3].

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The short - term trend of precious metals such as gold and silver may be volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see [1] Summary by Related Content Market Performance - COMEX gold futures fell 0.17% to $4067.40 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 0.34% to $50.54 per ounce. Shanghai gold closed up 0.32% at 929.84 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver rose 0.51% to 11949 yuan per kilogram [1] Important Information - From the four - week period ending November 1st, US companies laid off an average of 2500 workers per week, indicating an improvement in the US labor market compared to the previous week's average reduction of 11250 people [1] - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 48.9%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 51.1%. By January next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 49.7%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 31.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 18.4% [1] Market Logic - The so - called "inflation hawks" of the Fed have made intensive statements recently, making the decision on whether to conduct the third rate cut this year in December uncertain. The data shows that the probability of a rate cut in December is less than 50%. On November 18, the US dollar index rose slightly. Affected by the change in the Fed's rate - cut expectations, COMEX gold and silver both experienced a bottom - hunting rebound, and may be volatile in the short term [1] Trading Strategy - The short - term trend may be volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry in the black building materials sector is "oscillation" [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The steel futures market for rebar and hot-rolled coils is facing resistance in further upward movement. Given the fundamentals, there was a significant decline in plate exports and a substantial increase in bar exports in October. Last week, rebar supply continued to decline and inventory kept decreasing, while hot-rolled coil supply increased and inventory slightly decreased. The production and inventory of the five major steel products both declined, and it is the off-season for steel demand. Recently, more building material steel mills have resumed production, and the supply side is expected to increase in the short term. The fourth round of coke price increase by upstream suppliers has been implemented. It is expected that the market will continue to oscillate. For rebar futures, the first resistance level for the main contract is 3150, and the 3000 level remains a strong support. It is recommended that existing long positions be closed at an appropriate time [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Review - Rebar and hot-rolled coils closed higher on Tuesday but lower in the night session [1] Important Information - On November 17, five domestic steel mills raised the ex-factory prices of construction steel by 20 - 50 yuan/ton [1] - In October 2025, China exported 830,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 41.8%; from January to October, the cumulative exports reached 6.51 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 23.3%. In October, China imported 40,000 vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%; from January to October, the cumulative imports were 400,000 vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 30.0% [1] - In October 2025, China exported 2.27 million air conditioners, a year-on-year decrease of 29.3%; from January to October, the cumulative exports reached 52.43 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1%. In October, 6.52 million refrigerators were exported, a year-on-year decrease of 5.5%; from January to October, the cumulative exports were 68.17 million units, a year-on-year increase of 0.9%. In October, 3.15 million washing machines were exported, a year-on-year increase of 7.7%; from January to October, the cumulative exports were 29.45 million units, a year-on-year increase of 7.4%. In October, 10.11 million LCD TVs were exported, a year-on-year decrease of 3.1%; from January to October, the cumulative exports were 88.55 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 2.9% [1] - In October 2025, China exported 5.97 million tons of steel plates, a year-on-year decrease of 22.6%; from January to October, the cumulative exports reached 60.45 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.5% [1] - In October 2025, China's rebar production was 14.34 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 18.6%; from January to October, the cumulative production was 158.01 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.0% [1] - "China Metallurgical News" published an editorial stating that all steel enterprises should incorporate the principles of "production based on sales, production based on efficiency, and sales based on cash" into their business operations, not turn cash into inventory, avoid disorderly low-price competition, and refrain from making short-sighted decisions that overdraw the future, truly practicing the principles of "being trustworthy, self - disciplined, and law - abiding" [1] Market Logic - The upward movement of rebar and hot-rolled coil futures on the disk was blocked. Fundamentally, plate exports decreased significantly in October, while bar exports increased substantially. Last week, rebar supply continued to decline and inventory decreased continuously. Hot-rolled coil supply increased and inventory decreased slightly. The production and inventory of the five major steel products both decreased, and it is the off-season for steel demand. Recently, more building material steel mills have resumed production, and the supply side is expected to increase in the short term. The fourth round of coke price increase by upstream suppliers has been implemented [1] Trading Strategy - The rebound of rebar and hot-rolled coil futures was blocked, and it is expected to continue the oscillating trend. The first resistance level for the main rebar contract is 3150, and the 3000 level remains a strong support. It is recommended that existing long positions be closed at an appropriate time [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - China's October economic data shows that fixed - asset investment and export growth are lower than market expectations, while social consumer goods retail sales growth slightly exceeds expectations. The growth of industrial added value above designated size and service industry production index is not as expected. Real estate sales and prices continue to decline. New social financing and credit scale in October are lower than market expectations. The central bank will continue to optimize intermediate variables of monetary policy. Treasury bond futures may fluctuate slightly more in the short - term, and the impact of stock indices should be continuously monitored. [3][4] Summary by Directory Market Review - On Tuesday, most of the main contracts of treasury bond futures opened higher and fluctuated horizontally throughout the day. The 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2512 rose 0.06%, the 10 - year T2512 rose 0.03%, the 5 - year TF2512 rose 0.03%, and the 2 - year TS2512 rose 0.01% [3] Important Information - Open market: On Tuesday, the central bank conducted 407.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 403.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due, resulting in a net investment of 3.7 billion yuan [3] - Funding market: On Tuesday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank funding market rose slightly compared to the previous trading day. DR001's weighted average was 1.53% (previous day: 1.51%), and DR007's weighted average was 1.52% (unchanged from the previous day) [3] - Cash bond market: On Tuesday, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds fluctuated narrowly compared to the previous trading day. The 2 - year treasury bond yield decreased by 0.01 BP to 1.43%, the 5 - year increased by 0.53 BP to 1.59%, the 10 - year increased by 0.12 BP to 1.81%, and the 30 - year decreased by 0.10 BP to 2.14% [3] - According to ADP Research, in the four weeks ending November 1st, US companies laid off an average of 2,500 people per week, an improvement from the previous week's average reduction of 11,250 people [3] - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 48.9%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 51.1%. By January next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 49.7%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 31.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 18.4% [3] Market Logic - China's October economic data shows mixed performance. Fixed - asset investment and export growth are lower than expected, while social consumer goods retail sales growth slightly exceeds expectations. Industrial added value and service industry production index growth are not as expected. Real estate sales and prices continue to decline. New social financing and credit scale in October are lower than market expectations. The central bank will optimize monetary policy intermediate variables. The Wande All - A index fell 0.15% on Tuesday with slightly reduced trading volume. Treasury bond futures may fluctuate slightly more in the short - term, and the impact of stock indices should be monitored [3][4] Trading Strategy - Traders should conduct band - trading operations [4]