市场快讯 --- 库存压力VS减量预期 红枣日内强势上涨 2025年6月19日 1.前期红枣现货市场在供应宽松+需求波软+库存高压的三重 压迫下维持底部震荡。且从钢联的样本统计数据显示,当前红 枣样本库存仍处历史偏高水平,去库速度始终难以提速,这成 为压制前期枣价上行的主要因素。 2.受枣树生长特性影响,旧季红枣增产明显或导致次年枣树养 分透支,这意味着新年度枣树或将进入修复期,因此市场对今 年红枣的供应普遍抱有减量预期,同时盘面价格已跌至历史偏 低水平,部分资金已提前开启布局远月多单。 3.昨日郑商所宣布调整红枣期货合约的保证金标准和涨跌停板 幅度。其中保证金由10%降低为9%,张跌停盘由9%降低为 8%。 4.后市供应端的产量预期变化将成为主导下半年红枣走势的主 要逻辑,若由持续高温天气降临或枣树自身修复情况坐实,盘 面上方仍有空间等待打开,后续请关注我们具体的调研情况。 操作建议:我们已于5月提醒红枣远月合约存在多配价值,当 前盘面已提前反应市场对后市的看涨预期。建议未入场投资者 遇回调可少量布局多单,或卖出虚值看跌期权赚取权利金。 研究员：李克磊 从业资格 FO3104461 交易咨询: ZO0213 ...

研究员： 于军礼 从业资格： F0247894 交易咨询资格：Z0000112 联系方式：yujunli@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 多（空） | | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | 1、《指导与建立美国稳定币国家创新法案》以 68 票对 30 票的结果在美国参议院 | | | | 获得通过，标志着该院首次批准主要的加密货币立法。 | | | | 2、京东集团董事局主席刘强东表示，京东希望在全球所有主要的货币国家申请稳 | | | | 定币牌照，然后通过稳定币的牌照实现全球企业之间的汇兑，将全球跨境支付成本 | | | | 降低 90%，效率提高至 10 秒钟之内。B 端支付做完之后，会朝 C 端支付渗透。 | | | | 3、世界黄金协会发布《2025 年全球央行黄金储备调查》显示，95%的受访央行认为， | | | | 未来 12 个月内全球央行将继续增持黄金。这一比例创下自 2019 年首次针对该问题 | | | | 进行调查以来的最高纪录，同时也较 2024 年的调查结果上升了 17 个百分点。 | | | | 4、中国央行行长潘功胜表 ...

期货研究院 格林大华期货研究院专题报告 农产品 2025年06月18日 农产品研究员：王子健 从业资格证号：F03087965 交易咨询证号：Z0019551 联系方式： 17803978037 供应宽松预期压制上行空间 棉价震荡 格局难破 摘要： 格林大华期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1288号 当前棉市受宏观政策博弈与产业基本面疲软的双重影响，短期内缺 乏单边驱动因素。市场焦点转向美联储政策动向及新棉生长季天气 变化，中长期走势需关注全球通胀路径与终端消费复苏节奏。 成文时间：2025年06月18日星期三 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官 方微信 宏观扰动提振市场 在当前国际贸易格局下，中美第二阶段经贸磋商虽达成框架性协议，但关键关税议题仍存悬而未决之 处，这一阶段性成果已显著缓解了四、五月贸易争端高峰期的市场恐慌情绪。地缘政治风险成为新的价格 驱动因素——中东局势紧张推动布伦特原油价格突破75美元/桶关口，能源类大宗商品的领涨效应逐步向工 业金属、农产品等板块传导。值得注意的是，框架协议中"贸易休战"条款形成的政策缓冲期，叠加地缘冲突 引发的供给端收缩预期，共同构成了当前商品市场"宏观风险 ...

早盘提示 Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 6 月 18 日星期三 研究员： 于军礼 从业资格： F0247894 交易咨询资格：Z0000112 联系方式：yujunli@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 以伊对攻力度加大，周二两市主要指数小幅调整。两市成交额 1.20 万亿元。中证 | | | | 1000 | 指数收 6141 点，跌 6 点，跌幅-0.10%；中证 500 指数收 5750 点，跌 16 点， | | | | | 跌幅-0.29%；沪深 300 指数收 3870 点，跌 3 点，跌幅-0.09%；上证 50 指数收 2683 | | | | | 点，跌 1 点，跌幅-0.04%。行业与主题 ETF 中涨幅居前的是油气资源 ETF、能源 ETF、 | | | | | 金融科技 ETF、物流 ETF、石油天然气 ETF，跌幅居前的 ...

早盘提示 Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 6 月 17 日星期二 研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 周一夜盘甲醇主力合约期货价格下跌 29 元/吨至 2417 元/吨，华东主流地区甲醇现 | | | | | 货价格上涨 95 元/吨至 2585 元/吨。多头持仓增加 1163 手至 48.12 万手，空头持仓 | | | | | 增加 45546 手至 53.37 万手。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、供应方面，国内甲醇开工率 87.98%，环比上涨 0.03%。海外甲醇开工率 66.86%， | | | | | 环比增加 2.01%。 | | | | | 2、库存方面，中国甲醇港口库存总量在 65.22 万吨，较上一期数据增加 7.10 万吨。 | | | | | 其中，华东地区累库，库 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report [1][2][3] Group 2: Core Viewpoint of the Report - A-shares are gradually recovering from the impact of the Middle East situation, with major indices rising. Chinese private enterprises, especially leading ones, show potential for investment value recovery. The current period is a good window for Hong Kong IPOs. Given the significant geopolitical risks in the Middle East and uncertainties in the Israel-Iran conflict, A-share investment is advised to remain defensive, and option suggestions are suspended [1][2][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Performance - On Monday, oil prices were relatively stable. A-share major indices rebounded with trading volume reaching 1.46 trillion yuan. The CSI 1000 index closed at 6147 points, up 41 points or 0.68%; the CSI 500 index closed at 5767 points, up 27 points or 0.48%; the SSE 50 index closed at 2685 points, up 8 points or 0.32%; the S&P China A50 index closed at 3873 points, up 9 points or 0.25%. Among industry and theme ETFs, game, fintech, film and television, media, and software leading ETFs led the gains, while gold stock, innovative drug, and medical ETFs led the losses. Among sector indices, film and television theaters, wind power equipment, games, non-metallic materials, and Huawei computing power index led the gains, while precious metals, sports, aquaculture, feed, and chemical fiber indices led the losses. Net outflows of settled funds from stock index futures of S&P China A50, CSI 1000, SSE 50, and CSI 500 were 3.5 billion, 3 billion, 800 million, and 500 million yuan respectively [1] Macroeconomic Data - In May, the real year-on-year growth of industrial added value above designated size was 5.8%, and the month-on-month growth was 0.61%. The total retail sales of consumer goods were 4.1326 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, 1.3 percentage points faster than the previous month, and a month-on-month increase of 0.93%. From January to May, the national fixed asset investment was 1.91947 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%. Infrastructure investment increased by 5.6% year-on-year, manufacturing investment increased by 8.5%, and real estate development investment decreased by 10.7% [1] Market News - Goldman Sachs believes that the investment value of Chinese private enterprises is recovering, especially leading companies. The top ten private enterprises in China are Tencent, Alibaba, Xiaomi, BYD, Meituan, NetEase, Midea, Hengrui Medicine, Ctrip, and Anta. The speed of mainland companies' IPOs in Hong Kong has accelerated, raising HK$52.2 billion in a week, with over 200 companies queuing up. This is the best window period for Hong Kong IPOs since the second half of 2021. Foreign long - term funds and sovereign funds have returned to Hong Kong [1][2] Other News - Stablecoins can help retailers like Walmart and Amazon save billions in fees and achieve instant settlement. Traditional payment providers like Visa and Mastercard aim to be key infrastructure providers in the stablecoin ecosystem. Scientists are targeting neuromorphic computing technology to address the AI energy crisis. The Middle East situation is a "major uncertainty" for the Fed, and it may trigger a US economic recession. US President Trump said the US is not currently involved in Israel's military strike on Iran but may be involved in the future [2]

市场快讯 -- 伊以地缘冲突持续,甲醇期价快速拉升 2. 伊朗南帕尔斯天然气产量暂时中断,伊朗4套甲醇装置停产,共 计产能660万吨,其余装置维持低负荷。冲突导致伊朗甲醇供给暂 时中断。伊朗甲醇进口占比30%左右。 3. 国内甲醇生产维持高位,6月预计进口120-130万吨左右,需求 端利润压缩明显,需警惕甲醇持续上涨后下游负反馈。 操作建议:前期多单继续持有,单边谨慎追多等回调布局多单。 风险点:地缘冲突缓解 伊朗甲醇装置恢复 需求端负反馈 数据来源:wind,隆众资讯 研究员:吴志桥 从业资格F03085283 交易咨询:Z0019267 联系方式:wuzhigiao@greendh.com 免费单场。本报告中的自民均成绩于1天预算，我公司创这些信息的能确的意味和完整整作不作的印传语。不但还就信告自己出版事变更。这不知无诉分析师做出的印度处还希望比较好更变。在任何解证下，很牛肉的是夏就就让你里,我 面积达期货ລ持买卖的出炉或邮箱。在任何份配下，卖公可不断提供中的任何的密度的经贸易使用比任何序或的组织。 投资者带此改政、双风和自我承揽。我公司可能发出与本能信息见产歌的其 > 甲醇: 截至6月16日发稿为止, ...

Report Summary Core View - In May, the raw coal production of industrial enterprises above designated size was 400 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%, and the growth rate was 0.4 percentage points faster than that in April. From January to May, the raw coal production of industrial enterprises above designated size was 1.99 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.0%. Coal enterprises are prone to adopt a volume-for-price business strategy when coal prices decline, falling into a prisoner's dilemma where the lower the coal price, the higher the production [2]. Specific Data - In May, the raw coal production of industrial enterprises above designated size was 400 million tons, with a daily output of 13 million tons. From January to May, the cumulative production was 1.99 billion tons, which was the highest level in the same period in history. This output was 80 million tons higher than the same period in 2023 and 130 million tons higher than the same period in 2024 [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The upward trend of the global economy remains unchanged despite the significant escalation of geopolitical risks in the Middle East and the inflationary impact caused by rising oil prices [1] - The pulse-like increase in crude oil prices is likely to exceed expectations, and the surge in crude oil may drive a collective rise in commodities [1][2] - Safe-haven assets such as gold and silver are performing strongly, and the escalation of the Middle East situation is beneficial to the freight rates of container shipping on the European route [2] - Global large institutional investors are continuously reducing their holdings of US assets and shifting to European and Chinese stock markets, which is favorable for the A-share market [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Important Information - Israel launched a strike on Iran on the early morning of June 13th local time, and the military operation against Iranian nuclear facilities will continue for several days [1] - Iran is seriously considering whether to block the Strait of Hormuz [1] - In the worst-case scenario of the Strait of Hormuz being blocked, Iranian oil exports may decrease by 2.1 million barrels per day, and oil prices could soar to the range of $120 - $130 [1] - The US will not change the current level of tariffs on Chinese goods even if the trade agreement between the two countries is not finalized [1] - European pension funds have started to increase foreign exchange hedging, leading to a large amount of US dollar selling [1] - Trump's tariffs will cause the US inflation rate to rise by at least 3% year-on-year and cost ordinary households $1000 in income [1] - US President Trump must hand over the command of the California National Guard to Governor Newsom [1] Global Economic Logic - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have significantly escalated, but the global economic outlook has been stabilized by the China-US phased framework agreement [1] - The US May Markit manufacturing PMI final value was 52.0, indicating continued expansion, and consumer credit in April doubled to $17.9 billion [1] - The spot price of 40 - foot containers on the Shanghai - US West Line has exceeded $5000 [1] - China is addressing cut - throat competition, and the European Central Bank's 8th interest rate cut and Germany's 30% expansion of military scale have promoted the recovery of European manufacturing [1] Global Asset Allocation - The attack on Iranian nuclear facilities by Israel will likely cause a more intense and extensive pulse - like increase in crude oil prices [1] - Gold and silver, as safe - haven assets, are performing strongly, and silver is expected to start a trending upward movement [2] - The escalation of the Middle East situation is beneficial to the freight rates of container shipping on the European route [2] - The surge in crude oil may drive a collective rise in commodities [2] - Global large institutional investors are shifting from US assets to European and Chinese stock markets, which is favorable for the A - share market [2] - The global market has entered an inflation shock mode, and the A - share market has entered a defensive state [2]

市场快讯 -- 以色列对伊朗发动袭击,原油涨停 | | | | | | | 2025/6/13 | 实时价 | 漆味 | 漆烘幅 | 日增仓 | 持仓量 | 成交量 | 成交持仓比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | (手) | (万手) | (万手 | | | 原油2507(元/桶) | 535.2 | 44.1 | 8 98% | | -3.278 - 2.10 | | 13.43 - 6.39 | | ICE原油(美元/桶) | 75 | 5.64 | 8.13% | | | | | | WTI原油(美元/桶) | 73.81 | 5.77 | 18% | | | | | | 燃料油2509(元/吨) | 3234 | 252 | 450% | | 26.615 ++ 24.07 | 76.19 | 3.17 | | 沥青2509(元/吨) | 3683 | 175 | 4.99% | 26.615 | 24.07 | 76.19 | 3.17 | 倘若以色列空袭伊朗设施,或者霍尔木兹海峡被封锁,进而引发 局部冲突, ...