Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall inflation level in China remains moderate, with the 12 - month CPI and core CPI both rising 0.2% month - on - month, and the PPI rising 0.2% month - on - month. The 2026 People's Bank of China Work Conference emphasizes continuing to implement a moderately loose monetary policy. The main contract of Treasury bond futures showed a pattern of bottoming out and rebounding this week, and the short - term Treasury bond futures may fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the impact of the stock market. For trading - type investments, a band - operation strategy is recommended [27][28]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Treasury Bond Futures Weekly Market Review - This week, the main contract of Treasury bond futures showed a pattern of bottoming out and rebounding. From Monday to Wednesday, it declined, rose on Thursday, and moved sideways on Friday. For the whole week, the 30 - year Treasury bond fell 0.46%, the 10 - year Treasury bond fell 0.06%, the 5 - year Treasury bond fell 0.15%, and the 2 - year Treasury bond fell 0.11% [5]. - As of January 9th, compared with December 31st, the maturity yield curve of Treasury bond cash bonds shifted upward in parallel. The 2 - year Treasury bond yield rose 8 basis points from 1.36% to 1.44%, the 5 - year Treasury bond yield rose 3 basis points from 1.63% to 1.66%, the 10 - year Treasury bond yield rose 3 basis points from 1.85% to 1.88%, and the 30 - year Treasury bond yield rose 3 basis points from 2.27% to 2.30% [8]. 3.2 CPI Data - In December, the national consumer price (CPI) rose 0.8% year - on - year, with a market expectation of 0.75% and a previous value of 0.7%. For the whole year of 2025, the national consumer price was flat compared with the previous year. Food prices were an important factor driving the larger year - on - year increase in CPI in December, rising 1.1% year - on - year, compared with a 0.2% increase in the previous month [11]. - In December, the CPI rose 0.2% month - on - month, compared with a 0.1% decline in the previous month. Food prices rose 0.3% month - on - month for five consecutive months, non - food prices rose 0.1% month - on - month, consumer goods prices rose 0.3% month - on - month, and service prices remained flat month - on - month. The core CPI rose 0.2% month - on - month, compared with a 0.1% decline in the previous month [13]. - According to the eight - category classification, in December, food and tobacco prices rose 0.2% month - on - month, affecting the CPI to rise about 0.05 percentage points. Housing prices fell 0.1% month - on - month, transportation and communication prices remained flat, medical care prices rose 0.1% month - on - month, education, culture and entertainment prices rose 0.1% month - on - month, clothing prices remained flat, daily necessities and services prices rose 0.4% month - on - month, and other supplies and services rose 2.8% month - on - month [16]. 3.3 PPI Data - In December, the national industrial producer price (PPI) fell 1.9% year - on - year, with a market expectation of a 2.0% decline and a previous value of a 2.2% decline. For the whole year of 2025, the industrial producer price fell 2.6%. Production materials prices fell 2.1% year - on - year, and living materials prices fell 1.3% year - on - year [18]. - In December, the PPI rose 0.2% month - on - month for three consecutive months, with production materials prices rising 0.3% month - on - month and living materials prices remaining flat month - on - month. Among them, mining industry prices rose 0.8% month - on - month for five consecutive months since August, raw material industry prices rose 0.6% month - on - month, and processing industry prices rose 0.2% month - on - month for three consecutive months [21]. 3.4 Capital Interest Rate - After the New Year, the capital interest rate remained low this week. The weighted average of DR001 from Monday to Friday was 1.267%, the weighted average of DR007 was 1.455%, and the average issuance interest rate of one - year AAA inter - bank certificates of deposit was 1.632%. The central bank conducted 1.1 trillion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations on Thursday, with the same amount of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, achieving a full offset [24]. 3.5 Market Logic - In December, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 50.1%, returning to the expansion range after eight consecutive months below the boom - bust line. The production index was 51.7%, and the new order index was 50.8%, indicating that both manufacturing production and demand entered the expansion range. The service business activity index was 49.7%, remaining below the boom - bust line [27]. - The rise in gold, silver, and non - ferrous metal prices in December contributed to the increase in inflation indicators [27].

报告 全球金融资产加速向中国流动 2026年1月9日 更多精彩内容 请关注 格林大华期货 官方微信 研究员：于军礼 联系邮箱：yujunli@greendh.com 期货从业资格证号：F0247894 期货交易咨询号：Z0000112 证监许可【2011】1288号 全球经济展望 【全球经济展望】 美国抓捕委内瑞拉总统，在公海扣押油轮，全球政冶秩序"礼崩乐坏" ，进入从林法则的暗黑期，对全球经 济造成巨大的不确定性。野村表示，美联储的不确定性预计将在2026年7月至11月集中爆发，届时市场可能出现 "逃离美国资产"的趋势。美联储12月降息25个基点，每月购买400亿美元短债，美联储资产负债表重新开启扩 张。高盛分析师警告，当前拉斯维加斯博彩收入下滑的消费趋势，与2008年金融危机前的早期预警信号高度相似。 美国发布新版《国家安全战略》，放弃全球霸权，将调整与中国的经济关系，重振美国经济自主地位。美联储褐 皮书显示，消费者K型分化加剧，高收入消费者支出保持韧性，但中低收入家庭正"勒紧裤腰带"。 美国回归门罗主义，在全球收缩，将对全球经济、美债、美股、美元、贵金属、工业金属等大类资产产生颠 覆式深远影响。 鉴于美 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Steel: The production of the five major steel products increased slightly week - on - week, consumption in the off - season continued to decline, and inventory increased seasonally. After the profit of rebar recovered, production continued to rise and inventory accumulated significantly. Hot - rolled coil production increased slightly, and the total inventory decreased. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar may be repaired in the short term. The macro - environment has a neutral impact. As the market enters the winter storage period, there will be an increase in demand. The futures market traded the winter storage logic in advance and rebounded, and the rebound space depends on the intensity of winter storage [4]. - Iron ore: The daily average pig iron output this week was 2.295 million tons, an increase of 20,700 tons from last week and 51,300 tons from last year, increasing for the third consecutive week. It is expected to continue to rise. The iron ore shipment volume in December reached a record high, which will lead to a high arrival volume later, and the supply is expected to increase. After the end of market restocking and the arrival of a large number of shipments, there is still a risk of price correction [4]. - Trading strategy: Short - term operation [4]. 3. Summary by Related Content Steel and Iron Ore Market Performance - This week, steel and iron ore reached new highs and then declined [8]. Steel Products - Supply: The supply of the five major steel products this period was 8.1859 million tons, an increase of 73,800 tons week - on - week. Rebar production and inventory both increased, while hot - rolled coil production increased and inventory decreased. Currently, rebar production is still lower than the same period in previous years, hot - rolled coil is roughly the same as in previous years, and medium - thick plate is still higher than in previous years [14]. - Inventory: The social inventory of rebar this week was 4.6663 million tons, an increase of 113,100 tons week - on - week, a decrease of 558,400 tons month - on - month, an increase of 69,700 tons year - on - year (Gregorian calendar), and an increase of 211,500 tons year - on - year (lunar calendar) [14]. Iron Ore - Pig iron output: The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills was 2.295 million tons, an increase of 20,700 tons from last week and 51,300 tons from last year. The blast furnace operating rate was 79.31%, an increase of 0.37 percentage points from last week and 2.13 percentage points from last year; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 86.04%, an increase of 0.78 percentage points from last week and 1.80 percentage points from last year; the steel mill profitability rate was 37.66%, a decrease of 0.44 percentage points from last week and 12.99 percentage points from last year [18]. - Shipment and arrival: From December 29, 2025, to January 4, 2026, the global iron ore shipment volume was 32.137 million tons, a decrease of 4.634 million tons week - on - week. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 27.427 million tons, a decrease of 3.169 million tons week - on - week. The arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 28.247 million tons, an increase of 969,000 tons week - on - week [18]. - Port inventory: The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was 170.4444 million tons, an increase of 3.2265 million tons week - on - week; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.3696 million tons, a decrease of 32,500 tons [18]. Important News - On January 5, the State Council Information Office held a press conference, and the person - in - charge of the Comprehensive Planning Department of the Ministry of Transport said that it would vigorously implement the renewal and digital and intelligent transformation of water transport infrastructure [5]. - According to data released by Clarksons on January 7, in 2025, the global cumulative new ship order volume was 2,036 vessels with 56.43 million compensated gross tons (CGT), a 27% decrease compared to 76.78 million CGT in 2024. Chinese shipyards received 1,421 orders with 35.37 million CGT, a 35% decrease year - on - year, ranking first globally with a market share of 63%; South Korean shipyards received 247 orders with 11.6 million CGT, an 8% increase year - on - year, ranking second with a market share of 21% [5]. - In 2025, mergers and acquisitions in the steel industry were frequent, and many enterprises optimized their layouts through equity acquisitions and asset swaps, and regional integration accelerated [6]. - From December 29, 2025, to January 4, 2026, the total transaction (signing) area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.3394 million square meters, a 20.3% decrease week - on - week and a 10.9% decrease year - on - year [6]. - The 2026 Work Conference of the People's Bank of China was held from January 5th to 6th. The meeting emphasized continuing to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, giving play to the integrated effect of incremental and stock policies, and increasing counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustment. It will flexibly and efficiently use various monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts to maintain sufficient liquidity [6]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments jointly held a symposium on the power and energy storage battery industry to deploy work on standardizing industrial competition order [7]. - The Ministry of Commerce and other 9 departments promoted green consumption of automobiles and supported consumers to purchase new energy vehicles [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - From January 5 - 9, 2026, in the domestic futures market, 60 commodity futures varieties rose, 1 remained flat, and 21 declined. In the stock index futures, IH, IF, IC, and IM all rose, while in the treasury bond futures, 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year treasury bonds all fell [1]. - Each sector in the futures market showed different trends. The agricultural products sector had mixed performances; the non - ferrous and precious metals sector had significant short - term fluctuations; the black sector was generally volatile; the energy and chemical sector had various situations such as strong expectations but weak reality for some products; and the financial futures sector had the stock index in an upward trend and the treasury bond futures showing a short - term shock [6][11][13][15][18]. Summary by Catalog 1. Agricultural Products Futures - **Vegetable Oils**: This week, the main contracts of soybean oil and palm oil rose by 1.68% and 1.14% respectively, while the main contract of rapeseed oil fell by 0.50%. The vegetable oil sector showed a slightly differentiated upward trend due to various factors such as holiday备货, import policies, and international oil price fluctuations [6]. - **Double - Meal (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal)**: The main contract of soybean meal rose 1.35%, and that of rapeseed meal fell 1.14%. The double - meal showed a differentiated trend, with soybean meal being stronger and rapeseed meal weaker due to customs policies and market expectations [6]. - **Sugar**: Zhengzhou sugar showed a strong consolidation. The market is mainly concerned about the sugar production in China, India, and Thailand. With the start of the Spring Festival stocking, there is still pressure on sugar supply, and the short - term trend is expected to be a low - level range shock [7]. - **Red Dates**: The price of red dates slightly increased. During the Spring Festival stocking season, the abundant supply suppresses the price. The short - term trend is expected to be a shock, and the medium - to - long - term trend may decline [7]. - **Cotton**: Zhengzhou cotton's upward channel was blocked after breaking through 15,000. Due to the expected reduction in cotton planting area and the early shutdown plan of textile enterprises, the short - term upward momentum may weaken, and the market is in a shock adjustment state [8]. - **Apples**: The apple market in different production areas showed a differentiated trend. The overall de - stocking speed is lower than last year, and the market is mainly concerned about the Spring Festival stocking demand [8][9]. - **Logs**: The supply - demand contradiction is prominent. The weak demand suppresses the price increase, while the low inventory limits the decline. The main contract is expected to maintain a low - level shock [10]. 2. Non - Ferrous and Precious Metals - **Precious Metals**: Shanghai gold had a small increase with horizontal fluctuations, and Shanghai silver had a large increase followed by a large decline. Due to factors such as margin adjustments, index weight reset, and geopolitical risks, the short - term fluctuations of precious metals intensified [11]. 3. Black Sector - **Overall Situation**: The black sector showed an overall fluctuating trend, with iron ore being stronger than other varieties [13]. - **Coking Coal and Steel**: Coking coal led the rise in the first half of the week, and rebar hit a new high and then corrected. The supply of the five major steel products increased slightly, the inventory increased seasonally, and the consumption decreased in the off - season. The rebound space depends on the winter storage intensity [13]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore hit a new high and then corrected. The daily average pig iron output increased, and the supply is expected to increase. There is a risk of price correction after the end of market replenishment [13]. - **Double - Coking (Coking Coal and Coke)**: The double - coking showed a significant rebound and then a high - level correction. The fundamentals have no major contradictions, and the short - term is affected by supply - side rumors and winter storage expectations [14]. - **Double - Silicon (Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon)**: The double - silicon first rose and then fell. After the news was falsified, it returned to the fundamentals. The short - term bottom support is strong due to high - level production and winter storage expectations [14]. 4. Energy and Chemical Sector - **Methanol**: The main contract of methanol rose 2.6%. It still faces the situation of strong expectations but weak reality. The price is expected to fluctuate widely, and a bullish approach is recommended [15]. - **Urea**: Urea rose 1.6%. It showed a strong shock due to reserve demand and peak - season expectations. The medium - term price center may move up, and attention should be paid to the pressure level [15]. - **Bottle Chips**: Bottle chips rose 0.4%. The supply increased slightly, and the demand is expected to decline before the Spring Festival. The price may be suppressed, and attention should be paid to light - position buying on dips [16]. - **Rubber Series**: - **Natural Rubber**: It first rose and then fell, with the price center moving up. The supply is expected to decrease, and the demand is expected to recover. The inventory increased this week, and it may enter a consolidation state next week [16]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The BR main contract continued to strengthen. The cost support is significant, and the supply is relatively sufficient. The demand is expected to rebound slightly. There is a risk of correction, and long positions should be held with caution [17]. 5. Financial Futures Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: After the New Year's Day, funds flowed into the stock market, and the growth - style indexes were strong. The stock index is in a spring offensive, and long positions are recommended to be held [18]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The main contracts of treasury bond futures showed a bottom - hunting rebound. The short - term may fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the impact of the stock market [18].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the copper in the non - ferrous sector is "Bearish - biased" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The current upward trend of copper prices is mainly due to concerns about potential US tariffs on refined copper, leading to a concentration of global copper liquidity in the US. Additionally, the market's increased expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut is beneficial for metals with strong financial attributes like copper. However, considering factors such as the ongoing strike at a Chilean copper mine and new domestic resource discoveries, the overall investment recommendation for copper is bearish - biased [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Quotes - The night - session closing price of the main Shanghai copper contract CU2602 was 100,230 yuan/ton, down 1.76% from the previous night - session close. The night - session closing price of the secondary main contract CU2603 was 100,340 yuan/ton, down 1.83%. As of 06:00 Beijing time, the closing price of the main COMEX copper contract was equivalent to 89,352 yuan/ton (after exchange - rate conversion), down 0.79% from the previous trading day. The LME copper main contract CA03ME closed at 12,702 dollars/ton (equivalent to 88,669 yuan/ton after exchange - rate conversion), down 1.53% [1] Important Information - On January 8, according to Wenhua Finance, Chile's central bank data showed that Chile's copper export revenue in December was 5.83 billion dollars, a year - on - year increase of 26.3%. - On January 8, according to Gelonghui, the strike at the Mantoverde copper mine in northern Chile continued, with the concentrator operating at only 30% of its normal capacity and its inventory of supplies likely to be exhausted in a few days. - On January 7, according to the official website of the Ministry of Natural Resources, during the 14th Five - Year Plan period, China's new round of mineral exploration breakthrough strategy discovered 10 large oil fields, 19 large gas fields, and significantly increased the resource reserves of uranium, copper, gold, lithium, and potash. - On January 7, according to Cailian Press, Citi said that driven by strong momentum, copper prices would reach 14,000 dollars per ton in the next three months, but without new catalytic factors, copper prices might peak this month [1] Market Logic - The current copper price increase is due to concerns about US tariffs on refined copper, causing LME copper inventory in Europe to decline from nearly 70,000 tons in April to less than 15,000 tons, while COMEX copper inventory has risen from less than 100,000 short tons in April to over 450,000 short tons. Also, Trump's statement about the Fed chair and the market's increased expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut are beneficial for metals with strong financial attributes [1] Trading Strategy - No trading strategy is provided for now [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - In December 2025, China's overall inflation level rebounded moderately. It is expected that the year-on-year increase of CPI in January this year will decrease compared to December last year, and the year-on-year decline of PPI in January will narrow compared to December last year [5][20] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs CPI Analysis - **Year-on-year data**: In December, the national consumer price (CPI) increased by 0.8% year-on-year, with a market expectation of 0.75% and a previous value of 0.7%. In 2025, the national consumer prices were flat compared to the previous year. Food prices increased by 1.1% year-on-year, non-food prices increased by 0.8% year-on-year, consumer goods prices increased by 1.0% year-on-year, and service prices increased by 0.6% year-on-year. Core CPI increased by 1.2% year-on-year [2][7] - **Month-on-month data**: In December, CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month. Food prices increased by 0.3% month-on-month, non-food prices increased by 0.1% month-on-month, consumer goods prices increased by 0.3% month-on-month, and service prices were flat month-on-month. Core CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month [2][8] - **Eight major categories**: In December, the price of food, tobacco and alcohol increased by 0.2% month-on-month, housing prices decreased by 0.1% month-on-month, transportation and communication prices were flat month-on-month, medical care prices increased by 0.1% month-on-month, education, culture and entertainment prices increased by 0.1% month-on-month, clothing prices were flat month-on-month, daily necessities and services prices increased by 0.4% month-on-month, and other supplies and services increased by 2.8% month-on-month [9] - **Impact factors**: The increase in the year-on-year increase of food prices in December was an important factor driving the relatively large year-on-year increase of CPI in December. The month-on-month increase of industrial consumer goods prices excluding energy by 0.6% affected the month-on-month increase of CPI by about 0.16 percentage points [2][8] - **January forecast**: The current agricultural product prices are conducive to the increase of the year-on-year CPI data in January, and have little impact on the month-on-month CPI data in January. It is speculated that refined oil prices will have a downward pull on the year-on-year CPI in January and may have a slight downward pull on the month-on-month CPI in January [11] PPI Analysis - **Year-on-year data**: In December, the ex-factory prices of industrial producers nationwide decreased by 1.9% year-on-year, with a market expectation of a 2.0% decrease and a previous value of a 2.2% decrease. In 2025, the ex-factory prices of industrial producers decreased by 2.6%. Production material prices decreased by 2.1% year-on-year, and living material prices decreased by 1.3% year-on-year [3][12] - **Month-on-month data**: In December, PPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month. Production material prices increased by 0.3% month-on-month, and living material prices were flat month-on-month [4][13] - **Industry performance**: In December, industries with a relatively large year-on-year decline in ex-factory prices included the oil and gas extraction industry, coal mining and washing industry, etc.; industries with a relatively large year-on-year increase included the non-ferrous metal ore mining industry and non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry. Industries with a relatively large month-on-month increase in prices included the non-ferrous metal ore mining industry and non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry; industries with a relatively large month-on-month decline included the oil and gas extraction industry and oil, coal and other fuel processing industries [12][15] - **Impact factors**: The price increases of precious metals represented by gold and silver prices, and non-ferrous metals represented by copper in December played a relatively large role in the month-on-month increase of PPI in December [5][20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term upward momentum for silicon and manganese silicon is difficult to sustain, and the market experienced a significant correction yesterday. The market is expected to fluctuate around the fundamentals in the short term. Silicon and manganese silicon are expected to maintain a range - bound trend [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Yesterday, during the daytime session, the main contract of manganese silicon SM2603 closed at 5892.0, a 1.08% decline compared to the daytime opening. The main contract of silicon iron SF2603 closed at 5668, a 3.28% decline compared to the daytime opening [1]. 3.2 Important Information - At the beginning of 2026, the EU carbon tariff was officially implemented, significantly increasing the cost of steel exports to the EU. Indonesia will face the most significant increase in carbon costs, reaching 604.9 euros/ton at a certificate price of €80/tCO2. China's carbon cost is 161.14 euros/ton [1]. - The investigation of key coal mines in Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia shows that no official documents or notices regarding production capacity reduction have been received, and market rumors have not had a substantial impact on coal production and sales [1]. - This week, the utilization rate of the approved production capacity of 523 coking coal mines was 85.3%, a 5.7% week - on - week increase. The daily average production of raw coal was 1.899 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 127,000 tons, and the raw coal inventory was 4.734 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 17,000 tons [1]. - This week, the supply of five major steel products was 8.1859 million tons, a 0.4% week - on - week increase. The total inventory was 12.5392 million tons, a 1.77% week - on - week increase. The weekly consumption of the five major steel products was 7.9862 million tons, a 5% week - on - week decrease. Among them, the consumption of building materials decreased by 13.5% week - on - week, and the consumption of plates decreased by 0.8% week - on - week [1]. 3.3 Market Logic - The short - term upward push for silicon and manganese silicon is unsustainable, and the market corrected significantly yesterday. As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream replenishment has gradually started, significantly boosting market confidence. For manganese silicon, the price of manganese ore rose earlier than that of manganese silicon, providing strong cost support. On the demand side, the tendering of mainstream steel mills is proceeding slowly, and the announced tender prices are mostly concentrated around 5900 - 5950 yuan/ton. Manganese silicon is expected to maintain a range - bound trend in the short term [1]. 3.4 Trading Strategy - After the price increase due to news - based disturbances was mostly reversed yesterday, it is expected that the market will fluctuate around the fundamentals in the short term [1].

研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 9 日星期五 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 周四主力合约期货BZ2603价格下跌29元至5436元/吨，华东主流地区现货价格5340 | | | | | 元/吨（环比+35），山东地区现货价格 5212 元/吨（环比+2）。持仓方面，多头持 | | | | | 仓增加 425 手至 1.98 万手，空头持仓增加 646 至 2.54 万手。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、供应方面，12 月国内纯苯产量 193.4 万吨，同比+1.3%。11 月纯苯进口量 45.96 | | | | | 万吨，环比-7.4%。 | | | | | 2、库存方面，江苏纯苯港口样本商业库存总量：31.8 万吨，较上期库存 3 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 9 日星期五 研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周四夜盘主力合约 2605 期货价格下跌 9 元至 2234 元/吨，华东主流地区甲醇现货价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 格下跌 53 元至 2220 元/吨。持仓方面，多头持仓增加 18529 手至 46.6 万手，空头 持仓增加 68980 手至 63.8 万手。 【重要资讯】 1、供应方面，国内甲醇开工率 91.4%，环比+1.1%。海外甲醇开工率 60.9%，环比+0.6%。 2、库存方面，中国甲醇港口库存总量在 153.72 万吨，较上一期数据增加 4.08 吨。 | | | | | 其中，华东地区累库，库存增加 5.72 万吨；华南地区去库，库存减少 1.64 万吨。 | | | | | 中国甲醇样本生 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The short - term volatility of precious metals has intensified. Investors should adjust their positions and control risks [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Quotes - COMEX gold futures rose 0.57% to $4487.90 per ounce, COMEX silver futures fell 1.19% to $76.69 per ounce. Shanghai gold rose 0.21% to 1001.82 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver fell 2.82% to 18368.0 yuan per kilogram [1] - On January 8, the U.S. dollar index rose 0.12% to 98.86. COMEX gold recovered after hitting the bottom and closed slightly higher, while COMEX silver declined slightly after a sharp drop [2] Important Information - As of January 8, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF - SPDR Gold Trust remained unchanged from the previous trading day at 1067.13 tons. The holdings of the world's largest silver ETF - iShares Silver Trust increased by 115.6 tons to 16215.43 tons [1] - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January is 13.8%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 86.2%. By March, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 38.0%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 57.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 4.6% [1] - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. last week was 208,000, slightly lower than the forecast of 210,000. The number of continued claims for unemployment benefits increased by 56,000 to 1.914 million, indicating an increase in the difficulty for the unemployed to find new jobs and the accumulation of long - term unemployment risks [1] - The U.S. Supreme Court has set this Friday as the day to issue an opinion on the legality of Trump's comprehensive tariff plan. Analysts expect that if the court rules the tariff illegal, the stock market may be boosted, while the U.S. bond market may face selling pressure [1] Market Logic - The U.S. ADP employment in December increased by 41,000, slightly lower than the forecast. The number of job openings in November decreased from 7.45 million to 7.146 million. The U.S. ISM services PMI in December rose to 54.4, the highest since October 2024 [1] - The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in January next year remains below 20%. CME Group raised the performance margins for gold and silver futures on December 31. The Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusted the trading margin ratio and daily price limit for silver futures on January 7 [2] - Starting from January 8, the annual weight reset of the Bloomberg Commodity Index will lead to the sale of over $6 billion in gold futures and over $5 billion in silver futures within a five - day roll - over window [2] - Geopolitical risks increased due to the U.S. attack on Venezuela on January 3 [2] Trading Strategy - Adjust positions and control risks due to intensified short - term volatility of precious metals [2]