Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The vegetable oil sector is expected to remain weak in the medium to long - term due to sufficient supply, while the two - meal (soybean meal and rapeseed meal) market will maintain a bottom - oscillating trend in the medium term [2][3][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Vegetable Oil Market Performance on January 8 - Soybean oil: The main contract Y2605 closed at 7944 yuan/ton, down 0.18% day - on - day, with an increase of 20895 lots in open interest; the second - main contract Y2609 closed at 7814 yuan/ton, up 0.08% day - on - day, with an increase of 2413 lots in open interest [2] - Palm oil: The main contract P2605 closed at 8612 yuan/ton, up 0.58% day - on - day, with an increase of 326 lots in open interest; the second - main contract P2609 closed at 8500 yuan/ton, up 0.57% day - on - day, with an increase of 1940 lots in open interest [2] - Rapeseed oil: The main contract OI2605 closed at 8956 yuan/ton, down 1.53% day - on - day, with a decrease of 20113 lots in open interest; the second - main contract OI2609 closed at 8943 yuan/ton, down 1.52% day - on - day, with an increase of 977 lots in open interest [2] Important Information - China is willing to cancel tariffs on Canadian rapeseed in exchange for Canada canceling tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles [2] - In November 2025, the U.S. soybean crushing volume was 6.615 million short tons (2.21 billion bushels), lower than the revised 7.09 million short tons in October but higher than 6.3 million short tons in November last year [2] - Indian buyers have locked in large - scale soybean oil purchases from South America from April to July 2026, at 150,000 tons per month [2] - From December 1 - 25, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 9.12% month - on - month [2] - From December 1 - 25, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 1.6% compared with the same period in November [2] - Indonesia plans to implement the B50 biodiesel mandatory addition program in the second half of 2026 [2] Market Logic - Externally, international crude oil has risen, boosting the strength of U.S. soybean oil. Domestically, soybean oil is under pressure due to negative rapeseed - related news; palm oil is oscillating due to a combination of inventory pressure and strong international crude oil; rapeseed oil has fallen rapidly due to China - Canada negotiation news [2][3] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Vegetable oils are generally bearish but show some differentiation. Soybean oil is bearish, palm oil is oscillating in the medium term and bearish in the long term, and short positions in rapeseed oil should be held [3] - Arbitrage: Exit the previously concerned strategy of expanding the soybean - palm oil spread [3] Two - Meal (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal) Market Performance on January 8 - Soybean meal: The main contract M2605 closed at 31418 yuan/ton, down 1.03% day - on - day, with an increase of 2782 lots in open interest; the second - main contract M2609 closed at 2875 yuan/ton, down 0.45% day - on - day, with an increase of 3858 lots in open interest [3] - Rapeseed meal: The main contract RM2605 closed at 2358 yuan/ton, down 2.52% day - on - day, with an increase of 64896 lots in open interest; the second - main contract RM2609 closed at 2419 yuan/ton, down 1.87% day - on - day, with an increase of 7102 lots in open interest [3] Important Information - U.S. farmers are expected to increase soybean planting area to 85 million acres in the 2026/2027 season [3][4] - As of December 18, 2025, the U.S. soybean exports to China in the 2025/26 season were 659,000 tons [4] - StoneX predicts that Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season may reach 178.9 million tons [4] - As of January 3, 2026, Brazil's 2025/26 season soybean harvest progress was 0.1% [4] - As of December 30, Argentina's 2025/26 season soybean sowing was 82% complete [4] - Brazil's soybean exports in December 2025 are expected to be 3.38 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 69% [4] Market Logic - Externally, the bottom of U.S. soybeans is supported, but the upside is limited. Domestically, the spot price of soybean meal has increased, while rapeseed meal has been affected by news and has seen a high - level correction [3][4][5] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The two - meal market should maintain a bottom - oscillating mindset in the medium term and engage in intraday trading [5] - Arbitrage: No arbitrage strategy is proposed for now [5]

研究员：纪晓云 从业资格：F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 9 日星期五 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 联系方式：010-56711796 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 昨日日盘焦煤主力合约 Jm2605 收于 1237.5，环比日盘开盘上涨 2.23%；焦炭主力合约 J2605 收于 1765.0，环比日盘开盘下跌 0.45%。昨日夜盘，焦煤主力合约 Jm2605 收于 1177.5，环比日盘收盘下跌 1.05%。焦炭主力合约 J2605 收于 1730.5，环比日盘收盘下 跌 1.95%。 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黑色 | 焦煤、 | 区间震荡 | 【重要资讯】 1、2026 年伊始欧盟碳关税正式落地，钢铁出口欧盟成本将明显增长。据测算，碳成本 增加最多的国家为印尼，以证书价格€80/tCO2 为例，碳成本达到 604.9 欧元 ...

研究员： 纪晓云 从业资格： F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 9 日星期五 | | | | | | | 钢材: 【行情复盘】 周三螺纹热卷大幅上涨。夜盘收涨。 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | 年全球新船订单较 | | | 1、根据克拉克森的数据，2025 2024 年高位水平下降 27%，但已 | | | | | 超过 2021-2023 年平均订单水平。集装箱船依旧是最亮眼的板块，全年新船订单高 | | 年全年创纪录的 | | | 达 644 艘 475.9 万 TEU，超过 2024 467.4 万 TEU，再创历史新高。 | | | | | 2025 年集装箱船新造船总投资也进一步增加到了 593.64 亿美元（约合人民币 | | 亿美元。 | | | 4151.83 亿元），略高于 2024 年的 585.68 | | ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given reports [1][3][4] Group 2: Core Views - **Sugar**: In the short - term, the price of raw sugar may be difficult to break through the oscillation range due to intertwined long and short factors, and the domestic sugar price is expected to oscillate in a low range because of supply pressure despite the start of the Spring Festival stocking market [1] - **Red Dates**: The red date futures price is under pressure. In the short - term, it may oscillate, and the medium - to - long - term price center may move down due to lack of positive expectations after the stocking season [3] - **Rubber**: The upward movement of natural rubber is blocked, with resistance above in the short - term. The price of synthetic rubber is supported by cost, but high - price transactions are difficult, and some early long positions can be closed for profit [4] Group 3: Summary by Variety Sugar - **Market Review**: SR605 contract closed at 5279 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily decline of 0.04%, and the night session closed at 5279 yuan/ton; SR609 contract closed at 5290 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.06%, and the night session closed at 5292 yuan/ton [1] - **Important Information**: The spot price of sugar in Guangxi increased by 1 yuan/ton to 5315 yuan/ton; the sugar production in India's Maharashtra increased; Brazil's sugar export in December 2025 increased by 7.94 tons compared to 2024; Yunnan's sugar production in the 2025/26 season as of December increased by 6.54 tons year - on - year; in Guangxi, the sugar production in the 2025/26 season decreased year - on - year; the sugar warehouse receipts in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange remained unchanged [1] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold the previous short positions of SR605 and pay attention to the performance in the 5300 - 5315 pressure range; wait for short - selling opportunities for non - participants; consider the double - selling strategy for options [1] Red Dates - **Market Review**: CJ605 contract closed at 9075 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily decline of 0.82%; CJ609 contract closed at 9240 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.96% [3] - **Important Information**: The physical inventory of 36 red date sample points decreased by 349 tons week - on - week; the price of Hebei's special - grade red dates decreased by 0.04 yuan/kg; the number of arrival vehicles in Guangdong Ruyifang Market increased by 6; the red date warehouse receipts remained unchanged [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold the long - term short positions of CJ605 contract; short - sell at high levels for non - participants [3] Rubber - **Market Review**: RU2605 contract closed at 16120 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.37%; NR2603 contract closed at 13065 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.65%; BR2602 contract closed at 12195 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.33% [4] - **Important Information**: The prices of Thai rubber raw materials increased; the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased; the average weekly prices of Shanghai full - latex, 20 - standard Thai rubber in Qingdao and 20 - mixed Thai rubber in Qingdao increased; the capacity utilization rates of China's semi - steel and full - steel tire sample enterprises decreased; the price of butadiene increased, and the ex - factory price of high - cis butadiene rubber increased [4] - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to the activity ranges of RU (15750 - 16400), NR (12700 - 13300) and BR (11900 - 12400); consider closing early long positions of rubber series for profit [4]

Morning session notice Morning session notice | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 周四国债期货主力合约开盘全线高开，早盘小幅回探后连续上涨，截至收盘 30 年 期国债期货主力合约 TL2603 上涨 0.37%，10 年期 T2603 上涨 0.15%，5 年期 TF2603 | | | | | 上涨 0.09%，2 年期 TS2603 上涨 0.02%。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、公开市场：周四央行开展了 99 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，当天无逆回购到期，当 | | | | | 日合计净投放 99 亿元。央行周四还开展 1.1 万亿元买断式逆回购操作，期限为 3 | | | | | 个月（90 天），当日有 1.1 万亿元买断式逆回购到期，完全对冲。 2、资金市场：周四银行间资金市场隔夜利率保持低位，DR001 全天加权平均为 | | | | | 1.27%，上一交易日加权平均 1.27%；DR007 全天加权平均为 1.47%，上一 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Corn: Interval [1] - Live Pigs: Interval [1] - Eggs: Short in the Near - Month [3] 2. Core Views - **Corn**: Mid - term, the corn market is a mix of long and short factors, with new grain sales progress and downstream inventory preparation as support, while import corn auctions and rumors may limit short - term price increases. A wide - range interval trading strategy is maintained. Long - term, the pricing logic is substitution + planting cost, with policy orientation being the key focus [1]. - **Live Pigs**: Short - term, supply and demand both increase, resulting in limited price fluctuations. Mid - term, supply may increase until March and ease from April. Long - term, supply pressure exists until September and may ease after September. Attention should be paid to epidemic impacts [1][3]. - **Eggs**: Short - term, the egg price is stable after a rise, with a possible decline in February. Mid - term, the supply pressure is not fully released. Long - term, large - scale egg production may limit price increases, and waiting for over - culling to drive capacity reduction is recommended [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Corn **Market Conditions Review** - The corn futures fluctuated and consolidated last night. The main 2603 contract rose 0.58% to 2263 yuan/ton [1]. **Important Information** - Deep - processing enterprises' purchase prices were stable with a slight increase. Northeast enterprises' mainstream purchase price was 2158 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton; North China's average purchase price was 2252 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. - Port prices showed a pattern of stability in the north and increase in the south. Jinzhou Port's purchase price was 2260 - 2265 yuan/ton, unchanged; Shekou Port's transaction price was 2400 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [1]. - As of January 8, the number of corn futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 34,655 lots [1]. - In the second week of 2026, the grain sales progress in the Northeast was 56%, compared with 49% last year and a three - year average of 48%. In North China, it was 47%, compared with 50% last year and a three - year average of 46% [1]. **Market Logic** - Mid - term, the market is multi - faceted. New grain sales and downstream inventory preparation support prices, while auctions and rumors may limit price increases. A wide - range interval trading strategy is recommended. Long - term, the pricing logic is substitution + planting cost, with policy being key [1]. **Trading Strategy** - Maintain a wide - range interval trading strategy. For the 2603 contract, the pressure is at 2270 - 2280; for the 2605 contract, the pressure is at 2280, and if it breaks through 2280, the pressure moves up to 2300 [1]. Live Pigs **Market Conditions Review** - The live pig futures fluctuated weakly. The main 2603 contract fell 0.8% to 11,720 yuan/ton [1]. **Important Information** - The national average live pig price was 12.6 yuan/kg, up 0.03 yuan/kg. Today's early - morning prices are expected to be stable with local adjustments [1]. - In October 2025, the number of fertile sows was 39.9 million, dropping below 40 million for the first time in 17 months [1]. - From January to September 2025, the number of new - born piglets increased month - on - month (except in July). In October and November, it decreased by 1% and 0.8% respectively [1]. - As of January 8, the average slaughter weight of live pigs was 124.1 kg, down 0.29 kg from the previous week [1]. - On January 8, the price difference between fat and lean pigs was 0.37 yuan/jin, up 0.01 yuan/jin [1]. - As of January 8, the number of live pig futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 918 lots [1]. **Market Logic** - Short - term, supply and demand both increase, resulting in limited price fluctuations. Mid - term, supply may increase until March and ease from April. Long - term, supply pressure exists until September and may ease after September [1][3]. **Trading Strategy** - Adopt an interval trading strategy. For the 2603 contract, the pressure is at 12,000 and the support is at 11,500 - 11,600; for the 2605 contract, the pressure is at 12,400 - 12,500 and the support is at 12,000 - 12,100; for the 2607 contract, the pressure is at 13,000 and the support is at 12,700; for the 2609 contract, the pressure is at 14,000 and the support is at 13,500 - 13,700 [3]. Eggs **Market Conditions Review** - The egg futures fluctuated strongly. The main 2603 contract rose 0.1% to 3009 yuan/500KG [3]. **Important Information** - The national egg price was stable with local increases. The average price in the main production areas was 3.22 yuan/jin, up 0.01 yuan/jin; in the main sales areas, it was 3.55 yuan/jin, up 0.03 yuan/jin [3]. - The overall inventory was stable. The average production - link inventory was 1.04 days, and the circulation - link inventory was 1.1 days, both unchanged [3]. - The average price of old laying hens was 4.1 yuan/jin, up 0.05 yuan/jin. As of January 8, the weekly culling age was 484 days, unchanged [3]. - In December, the number of laying hens in production was about 1.344 billion. The theoretical estimated number in January is 1.334 billion [3]. - As of January 8, the number of egg futures warehouse receipts increased by 5 to 7 lots [3]. **Market Logic** - Short - term, the egg price is stable after a rise, with a possible decline in February. Mid - term, the supply pressure is not fully released. Long - term, large - scale egg production may limit price increases [3]. **Trading Strategy** - Consider short - selling opportunities in the near - month contracts after price increases. For the 2603 contract, if it breaks below 3000, further decline is possible. Pay attention to the culling situation in the first quarter [3].

Morning session notice 早盘提示 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 周四尿素主力合约 2605 价格下跌 8 元至 1776 元/吨，华中主流地区现货价格 1750 元/吨。持仓方面，多头持仓增加 12274 手至 22.7 万手，空头持仓增加 4253 手至 24.66 万手。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、供应方面，尿素行业日产 20.4 万吨，较上一工作日增加 0.14 万吨；较去年同期 | | | | | 增加 2.79 万吨；今日开工率 83.28%，较去年同期 77.47%回升 5.81%。 | | | | | 2、库存方面，中国尿素企业总库存量 102.22 万吨，较上周增加 0.30 万吨，环比增 | | | | | 加 0.29%。尿素港口样本库存量 14 万吨，环比-3.2 万吨。 | | | | | 3、需求方面，复合肥开工率 37.7%，环比-1.6%，三聚氰胺开工率 58.5%，环比-3.1%。 | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the polyester chip in the energy and chemical industry is "Oscillating". [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - The polyester chip price will follow the raw materials to fluctuate in the short - term, and the reference range for the main contract PR2603 is 5950 - 6180 yuan/ton. It is advisable to take a wait - and - see approach. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Market Review - On Thursday, the main price of polyester chips dropped by 48 yuan to 5996 yuan/ton. The price of East China water - grade polyester chips was 6030 yuan/ton (- 5), and the price of South China polyester chips was 6090 yuan/ton (+0). Long - position holdings increased by 522 lots to 60,700 lots, and short - position holdings increased by 121 lots to 62,600 lots. [2] 3.2 Important Information - **Supply, Cost and Profit**: This week, the domestic polyester chip production was 335,700 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0.21. The weekly average production capacity utilization rate of polyester chips was 73.36%, a week - on - week increase of 0.31. The production cost was 5623 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 178 yuan/ton. The weekly production gross profit was - 182 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 4 yuan/ton. [2] - **Export**: In November 2025, China's polyester chip exports were 533,000 tons, an increase of 99,000 tons from the previous month. The cumulative export volume in 2025 was 5.865 million tons. [2] - **Production in December 2025**: The output of China's polyester chip industry was 1.4789 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.48%. The production capacity utilization rate was 73.12%, a month - on - month increase of 0.1 percentage points. [2] - **Oil Price**: Geopolitical situations in regions such as Russia - Ukraine and Israel - Iran remain uncertain. The international oil price rose. NYMEX crude oil futures contract 02 rose 1.77 dollars/barrel to 57.76 dollars/barrel, a week - on - week increase of 3.16%. ICE Brent oil futures contract 03 rose 2.03 dollars/barrel to 61.99 dollars/barrel, a week - on - week increase of 3.39%. China INE crude oil futures contract 2602 fell 6.8 to 418 yuan/ton and then rose 6.6 to 424.6 yuan/ton in the night session. [2] - **Military News**: According to the U.S. "The War Zone" website on January 5th, a large number of U.S. military aircraft suddenly flew to Europe recently, which triggered speculation about possible special operations in the region. [2] 3.3 Market Logic - The U.S. attacked Venezuela, but the Venezuelan oil facilities were not affected for the time being. The medium - to - long - term crude oil supply may increase after the U.S. "takeover", which is negative for market sentiment. This week, the supply of polyester chips increased slightly, and downstream factories mainly made rigid restocking. The new device was put into production as expected, having little impact on the market. [2] 3.4 Trading Strategy - It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach. [2]

早盘提示 Morning session notice | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、中国 AI 科技类上市公司总市值约 5 万亿美元，美国 AI 科技公司总市值约 30 万 | | | | | 亿美元，中国还没有一家万亿美元级的 AI 或者高科技公司。中国 AI 科技公司的发 | | | | | 展潜力巨大，出现万亿美元级公司只是时间问题。 | | | | | 2、美国军方宣称扣押两艘油轮。美国东部时间 7 日 8 时 43 分，美国欧洲司令部在 | | | | | 社交媒体上发布消息称，在北大西洋扣押一艘俄罗斯油轮。约半小时后，美国南方 | | | | | 司令部在社交媒体上发布消息称，在国际水域扣押一艘无国籍油轮。 | | | | | 3、AI 正在走"双轨路线"：顶级大模型不断变强，但其能力会在 6–12 个月内 | | | | | 被压缩进更小、更便宜的模型。小模型快速追赶，GPT-5 级推理能力下放到可本地 | | | | | 运行、低成本形态。真正爆发的将是海量小模型和应用生态。 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for the sugar sector in the agricultural, forestry, livestock group is "sideways"; for the rubber series in the energy and chemical sector, it's "sideways" for natural rubber and synthetic rubber, with synthetic rubber showing a "sideways with a slight upward bias" [1][4] Group 2: Core Views - For sugar, externally, the ICE raw sugar price increase has been limited by the short - term trading range due to a lack of information and long - term supply pressure. Domestically, although the Zhengzhou sugar price is slightly stronger with the support of the overall commodity market and the start of the Spring Festival stocking, the increasing supply from Guangxi may drag down the price. The short - term upward trend may lack continuous momentum [1] - For rubber, natural rubber is supported by rising overseas raw material prices and positive market sentiment despite increasing domestic inventories. The short - term upward trend has resistance. Synthetic rubber is supported by rising raw material prices, but high - price transactions are difficult due to downstream price - pressing. The upward trend also has challenges [4] Group 3: Summary by Category Sugar - **Market Review**: On January 8, SR605 closed at 5281 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.42%, and its night - session closed at 5286 yuan/ton; SR609 closed at 5293 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.34%, and its night - session closed at 5299 yuan/ton [1] - **Important News**: The spot price of Guangxi sugar increased by 17 yuan/ton to 5314 yuan/ton. As of January 5, 2026, in India's Maharashtra state, 195 sugar mills were in operation, 4 less than the same period last season, but the sugar output reached 532.27 tons. Bihar state plans to expand sugarcane planting. In Yunnan, the sugar output as of the end of December 2025/26 season was 39.23 tons, an increase of 6.54 tons year - on - year. In Guangxi, 73 sugar mills were in operation as of December 31, 2025/26 season, 1 less than the same period last year, and the sugar output decreased by 80.95 tons year - on - year [1] - **Market Logic**: Externally, the raw sugar market is calm, and the price is in a sideways range. Domestically, the overall commodity market supports the Zhengzhou sugar price, but the increasing supply from Guangxi may limit the upward movement [1] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold the previous short positions in SR605 and observe the performance in the 5300 - 5315 pressure range. Those not yet in the market should wait for short - selling opportunities. Consider the double - selling strategy for options [1] Rubber - **Market Review**: On January 8, RU2605 closed at 16180 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.81%; NR2602 closed at 13150 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 1.08%; BR2602 closed at 12155 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 2.75% [4] - **Important News**: The raw material prices in Thailand increased slightly. As of January 4, 2026, the natural rubber inventory in Qingdao increased. The prices of some rubber products, such as whole - latex and 20 - grade Thai standard rubber, also increased. The price of butadiene rose, and the prices of synthetic rubbers such as cis - butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber increased [4] - **Market Logic**: Natural rubber is supported by cost and market sentiment, but there is resistance in the short - term upward trend. Synthetic rubber is supported by cost, but high - price transactions are difficult [4] - **Trading Strategy**: The pressure ranges for RU, NR, and BR are 16400 - 16500, 13300 - 13400, and 12200 - 12400 respectively. Consider partial profit - taking for previous long positions, and stop - profit and exit when facing strong pressure or a change in market sentiment. Those not yet in the market are recommended to wait and see [4]