Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2) Core View of the Report - Global geopolitical disturbances are continuous, and crude oil prices have stabilized and rebounded. Last week, the supply of bottle chips increased slightly, and downstream factories mainly replenished their stocks rigidly. The expected commissioning of new plants has little impact on the market. In the short term, the price of bottle chips will fluctuate strongly following the raw materials [1]. 3) Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On the Friday night session, the main price of bottle chips rose by 118 yuan to 6140 yuan/ton. The price of East China water bottle - grade bottle chips was 6030 yuan/ton (-5), and the price of South China bottle chips was 6080 yuan/ton (-10). In terms of positions, long positions increased by 3144 lots to 63,700 lots, and short positions increased by 3102 lots to 65,600 lots [1]. Important Information - **Supply and cost - profit**: This week, the domestic polyester bottle chip production was 334,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 600 tons. The average weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic polyester bottle chips was 72.27%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.01. The production cost of polyester bottle chips was 5592 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 31 yuan/ton. The weekly production gross profit of polyester bottle chips was - 166 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 15 yuan/ton [1]. - **Export volume**: In November 2025, China's polyester bottle chip exports were 533,000 tons, an increase of 9900 tons from the previous month. The cumulative export volume in 2025 was 5.865 million tons [1]. - **December 2025 production**: In December 2025, the output of China's polyester bottle chip industry was 1.4789 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.48%. The capacity utilization rate this month was 73.12%, a month - on - month increase of 0.1 percentage points [1]. - **Crude oil price**: The market believes that the instability of the Russia - Ukraine and Israel - Iran situations has increased, and the potential supply risk has risen, leading to an increase in international oil prices. The NYMEX crude oil futures 02 contract rose 1.36 dollars/barrel to 59.12 dollars/barrel, a week - on - week increase of 2.35%. The ICE Brent crude oil futures 03 contract rose 1.35 dollars/barrel to 63.34 dollars/barrel, a week - on - week increase of 2.18%. The China INE crude oil futures 2602 contract rose 7.8 to 425.8 yuan/ton, and rose 11.9 to 437.7 yuan/ton in the night session [1]. - **Military news**: According to the US "The War Zone" website on January 5th, open - source flight tracking data and observations from ground observers showed that a large number of US military aircraft suddenly flew to Europe recently. The number of military aircraft dispatched in a short period and their take - off locations have sparked speculation about possible special operations in the region by the US military in the future [1]. Market Logic - Global geopolitical disturbances are continuous, and crude oil prices have stabilized and rebounded. Last week, the supply of bottle chips increased slightly, and downstream factories mainly replenished their stocks rigidly. The expected commissioning of new plants has little impact on the market. In the short term, the price of bottle chips will fluctuate strongly following the raw materials [1]. Trading Strategy - The reference range for the main contract is 6000 - 6280 yuan/ton. The trading strategy is to wait and see or go long on dips [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Oils and Fats Sector**: The international crude oil price has bottomed out and rebounded, reigniting enthusiasm for the bio - diesel concept, and domestic commodity market heat has led to capital inflows into the vegetable oil sector. Different oils have different fundamentals. Soybean oil continues to rebound, palm oil attracts hot money due to crude oil rise despite poor fundamentals, and rapeseed oil's decline is limited by low inventory [5]. - **Protein Sector**: China's purchase of US soybeans stabilizes the US soybean price, while domestic policies and South American production expectations limit the upside of soybean meal. Rapeseed meal is under pressure due to the expected return of Canadian rapeseed. Double - meal products will continue the medium - term震荡行情 [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats and Protein Logic - **Oils and Fats**: International crude oil rebounds, and domestic policies and fundamentals lead to different trends in soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil. For example, soybean oil rebounds, palm oil attracts capital, and rapeseed oil's decline is restricted [5]. - **Protein**: China's purchase of US soybeans, domestic policies, and South American production expectations jointly affect the double - meal market, resulting in a medium - term震荡行情 [6]. 3.2 Operation Strategies for Three Oils and Two Meals - **Single - side Operation**: For vegetable oils, adopt a bullish approach, buy soybean oil and palm oil on dips. The rise of crude oil determines the upside of vegetable oils, with rapeseed oil being the weakest. For double - meal products, maintain a medium - term震荡 pattern. Specific contract support and resistance levels are provided [7]. - **Arbitrage**: No arbitrage strategies are available currently [7][8] 3.3 Important Information - Fed interest rate cut probabilities: The probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut by the Fed in January is 13.8%, and the probability of keeping the rate unchanged is 86.2%. By March, the probability of a 25 - basis - point cumulative rate cut is 38.0%, the probability of keeping the rate unchanged is 57.4%, and the probability of a 50 - basis - point cumulative rate cut is 4.6% [9]. - Canadian rapeseed production: The Canadian rapeseed production is 21.8 million tons, higher than market expectations [9]. - Malaysian palm oil inventory: Malaysia's December palm oil inventory is expected to reach a nearly seven - year high, with production of 1.76 million tons, exports of 1.25 million tons, imports of 36,000 tons, and inventory of 2.97 million tons [9]. - China - Canada trade: China is willing to cancel tariffs on Canadian rapeseed in exchange for Canada canceling tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles [9]. 3.4 S&P's Adjustment of US Soybean Planting Area - In 2026, the US soybean planting area will increase by 4% to 84.5 million acres, while the corn planting area will decrease by 3.8% to 95 million acres [10]. 3.5 South American and US Gulf Import Premiums - As of January 9, the South American soybean import premium is 164 cents per bushel, and the US Gulf premium has risen significantly to 220 cents per bushel. Even after tariff cuts, the cost of importing US soybeans is still higher than that of South American soybeans [13]. 3.6 Brazilian New Soybean Sowing and Growth - As of December 20, 2025, the sowing progress of Brazil's 2025/26 soybean is 97.6%. The expected production is 177.124 million tons, with a planting area of 48.935 million hectares and a yield of 3,620 kg per hectare [16]. 3.7 Domestic Soybean Ship - Buying - As of January 6, different monthly ship - buying progress and quantities vary. For example, the 1 - month ship - buying progress is 100% with 4.578 million tons, and the 2 - month ship - buying progress is 87.68% with 8.33 million tons [18]. 3.8 Cofco's Old Soybean Auction - From December 11 to 19, several auctions of imported soybeans were held, with different transaction volumes, prices, and rates. There are also rumors that subsequent auctions will be converted into directional sales [22]. 3.9 Domestic Bean Inventory - As of the end of the first week of 2026, the domestic imported soybean inventory is 6.876 million tons, the soybean meal inventory is 1.135 million tons, and the soybean oil inventory is 1.286 million tons [23]. 3.10 Oil Mill Startup Rate and Pressing Volume - As of the end of the first week (January 3), the average startup rate of domestic major soybean oil mills is 52.25%, a decrease of 9.78% from the previous week. The current pressing volume is 1.915 million tons, and the expected volume next week is 2.2259 million tons [30]. 3.11 Weekly Transaction of Oils and Meals - This week, the average transaction price of soybean oil is 8,413.42 yuan per ton, with a transaction volume of 114,300 tons. The average transaction price of soybean meal is 3,182.58 yuan per ton, with a transaction volume of 1.53 million tons [34]. 3.12 Oils and Meals Basis - As of January 9, the basis of soybean oil in Zhangjiagang is 496 yuan per ton, and the basis of soybean meal's main contract is 364 yuan per ton [38]. 3.13 Malaysian Palm Oil Supply - Demand Balance - In November, Malaysia's palm oil production is 1.93551 million tons, exports are 1.212814 million tons, inventory is 2.835439 million tons, and imports are 23,176 tons [42]. 3.14 Indonesian Palm Oil Supply - Demand Balance - In September, Indonesia's palm oil inventory increased by 1.97% to 2.59 million tons, exports decreased by 36.5% to 2.2 million tons, and production decreased by 22.3% to 4.3 million tons [45]. 3.15 Palm Oil Import and Profit - As of January 9, the palm oil import profit is 168.17 yuan per ton. The import volume in November is 390,000 tons, in December is 345,000 tons, and in January is 250,000 tons. The domestic palm oil inventory is 663,000 tons [49]. 3.16 Palm Oil Transaction, Basis, and Inventory - As of January 9, the basis of palm oil in Guangdong is - 2 yuan per ton. This week, the average transaction price is 8,694 yuan per ton, and the transaction volume is 4,300 tons [55]. 3.17 Rapeseed Import Cost and Profit - As of January 9, the FOB price of Canadian rapeseed in Guangzhou Port in February is 511 Canadian dollars per ton, and the import cost is 4,327 yuan per ton. The import profit is between 1,135.39 and 1,341.70 yuan per ton, but the import volume has decreased significantly [60]. 3.18 Rapeseed Inventory - As of the end of the first week of 2026, the domestic imported rapeseed inventory is 60,000 tons, the rapeseed meal inventory is 0 tons, and the rapeseed oil inventory is 323,000 tons [64]. 3.19 Oil Mill Startup and Pressing of Rapeseed - As of the end of the first week (January 3), the startup rate of domestic major rapeseed oil mills is 0%, and the pressing volume is 0 tons. The expected volume next week is also 0 tons [67]. 3.20 Rapeseed Transaction and Basis - This week, the average transaction price of rapeseed meal is 2,484 yuan per ton, and the transaction volume is 0 tons. The average transaction price of rapeseed oil is 10,200 yuan per ton, and the transaction volume is 0 tons [72]. 3.21 CFTC Fund Dynamics - As of January 6, the non - commercial net long positions of CFTC soybeans are 104,770 lots, a decrease of 17,041 lots; the non - commercial net long positions of soybean meal are 14,212 lots, a decrease of 11,977 lots; the non - commercial net long positions of soybean oil are - 12,458 lots, a decrease of 10,084 lots [75].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry in the black building materials sector is "volatile" [1] Core Viewpoints - On Friday, rebar and hot-rolled coils closed down, but closed up during the night session. The supply of steel increased while demand decreased, and inventory increased. The market may experience different stages: first, with the market entering winter storage, there could be an increase in demand and a potential rebound in the market, with the rebound space depending on the intensity of winter storage; second, as winter storage nears its end and the Spring Festival approaches, the market will enter a "nominal trading" phase, with both supply and demand contracting and the market becoming a pure capital-driven one [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Friday, rebar and hot-rolled coils closed down, and closed up during the night session [1] Important Information - The Ministry of Water Resources aims to maintain large-scale and high-level construction and investment in water conservancy infrastructure in 2026 [1] - According to Mysteel's research, the off-season effect is prominent, and the steel procurement volume of construction enterprises in January is expected to decline by about 18% [1] - Mysteel's research data on construction enterprises shows that the actual steel procurement volume in December 2025 was 6.67 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 6.6%; the planned steel procurement volume in January is 5.78 million tons, and the actual procurement volume in January may decline significantly month-on-month [1] Market Logic - The supply of the five major steel products in this period is 8.1859 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 73,800 tons. Among them, the output and inventory of rebar both increased, the output of hot-rolled coils increased, and the inventory decreased. Overall, steel supply increased, demand decreased, and inventory increased [1] Trading Strategy - Possible trading logic deductions: 1. As sentiment cools, the market gradually enters winter storage, and there is an increase in demand on the demand side. The market front-runs the winter storage logic and rebounds, and the rebound space depends on the intensity of winter storage. 2. As winter storage nears its end and the Spring Festival approaches, the market will enter a substantial "nominal trading" phase. Some traders will gradually close for the holiday, and some electric furnace enterprises with poor profit performance may take an early holiday, resulting in a contraction of both supply and demand. The market will enter a pure capital-driven phase [1]

1. Report's Industry Investment Ratings - Sugar: Oscillation [1] - Red dates: Oscillation [4] - Rubber series: Oscillation [5] 2. Core Views of the Report - Sugar market has supply pressure in both domestic and overseas markets in the medium and long term, with the external market lacking breakthrough momentum and the internal market affected by the overall commodity sector and the external market, and it's not recommended for non - participants to chase the rising market [1] - Red dates' short - term price is oscillating strongly, but there are still insufficient positive factors in the medium and long term, and the market may not have much room for a significant rebound [4] - Natural rubber may enter a consolidation phase recently, and synthetic rubber has mixed long and short factors, and there is pressure on the upper side of the market [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Sugar - **Market Review**: On Friday, the closing price of SR605 contract was 5,288 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.17%, and the night - session closing price was 5,284 yuan/ton; the closing price of SR609 contract was 5,299 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.17%, and the night - session closing price was 5,297 yuan/ton [1] - **Important Information**: On Friday, the spot price of white sugar in Guangxi was 5,321 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton; as of January 7, the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped at Brazilian ports was 158.23 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 16.53 million tons, or 11.66%; in the 2025/26 sugar - making season as of January 7, Thailand's cumulative sugarcane crushing volume decreased by 25.35%, sugar production decreased by 27.03% year - on - year; on Friday, the number of white sugar warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 6,005, unchanged from the previous day [1] - **Market Logic**: The external market is mainly concerned about the output in the Northern Hemisphere, lacking breakthrough momentum, and is expected to oscillate in a range; the domestic market is affected by the overall commodity sector and the external market, and the market sentiment is neutral to strong, but there is still supply pressure [1] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold the previous short positions of SR605, pay attention to the performance of the pressure range of 5,300 - 5,315; wait for short - selling opportunities for non - participants; consider the double - selling strategy for options [1] Red Dates - **Market Review**: On Friday, the closing price of CJ605 contract was 9,150 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.83%; the closing price of CJ609 contract was 9,310 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.76% [4] - **Important Information**: This week, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 15,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.23% and a year - on - year increase of 41.27%; last week, the daily average arrival volume at the Guangdong Ruyifang Market increased by 0.8 carriages, and the price decreased by 0.2 yuan/kg; on the previous day, the wholesale price of Hebei special - grade red dates was 9.52 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day; on the previous day, the number of arrival vehicles at the Guangdong Ruyifang Market decreased by 1; on Friday, the number of red date warehouse receipts increased by 260 to 2,523 [4] - **Market Logic**: The short - term price of red dates is oscillating strongly. As the negative supply factors are gradually digested, the market focuses on the pre - holiday stocking demand. However, there are still insufficient positive factors in the medium and long term [4] - **Trading Strategy**: Short CJ605 contract on rallies [4] Rubber Series - **Market Review**: As of January 9, the closing price of RU2605 contract was 16,030 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.56%; the closing price of NR2602 contract was 12,950 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.88%; the closing price of BR2602 contract was 12,015 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 1.48% [5] - **Important Information**: On Friday, the price of Thai raw material glue was 56 Thai baht/kg, and the price of cup rubber was 52.2 Thai baht/kg; as of January 4, the general trade inventory of natural rubber samples in Qingdao increased by 16,900 tons to 460,300 tons, an increase of 3.80% compared with the previous period; the total inventory of bonded and general trade in Qingdao increased by 23,500 tons to 548,300 tons, an increase of 4.48% compared with the previous period; this week, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire and full - steel tire sample enterprises decreased both week - on - week and year - on - year [5] - **Market Logic**: Natural rubber first rose and then fell last week. Supply is expected to decrease next week, demand is expected to recover but may be restricted by inventory, and inventory has continued to accumulate recently; synthetic rubber's BR main contract continued to strengthen last week. The price of raw material butadiene is expected to remain firm, and there are mixed long and short factors [5] - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to the activity range of 15,750 - 16,400 for RU, 12,700 - 13,300 for NR, and 11,900 - 12,400 for BR; consider taking profit and leaving the market for the previous long positions of the rubber series [6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the iron ore in the black building materials industry is bullish [1] Group 2: Report's Core View - On Friday, iron ore closed down and rose in the night session. There are expectations of increased iron ore supply and potential price corrections after the market restocking ends [1] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Iron ore closed down on Friday and rose in the night session [1] Important Information - The Ministry of Water Resources aims to maintain large - scale and high - level water infrastructure construction and investment in 2026 [1] - In the off - season, construction companies' steel procurement volume in January is expected to decline by about 18% [1] - Last week, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 79.31%, a 0.37 - percentage - point increase from the previous week; the steel mill profitability was 37.66%, a 0.44 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week; the daily average pig iron output was 2.295 million tons, a 20700 - ton increase from the previous week [1] - Last week, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports nationwide was 170.4444 million tons, a 3.2265 - million - ton increase from the previous week [1] Market Logic - The daily average pig iron output has increased for three consecutive weeks, and there are expectations of further increases. Considering the seasonally high iron ore shipments in December, high supply may occur [1] Trading Strategy - After the end of market restocking and large - volume shipments arriving at ports, there is a risk of price correction due to the decline in emotional driving [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the energy and chemical industry (specifically for pure benzene) is "oscillating with a bullish bias" [2] Group 2: Core View of the Report - Global geopolitical disturbances are continuous, causing crude oil prices to stabilize and rebound. Last week, the pure benzene inventory at Jiangsu ports continued to accumulate, while the downstream demand-side operations improved. In the short term, the pure benzene price will fluctuate widely, with the reference range for the 03 contract being 5420 - 5580 yuan/ton. Future attention should be focused on port arrivals and the future transaction prices in the US dollar-denominated pure benzene market [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Friday night, the futures price of the main contract BZ2603 rose by 60 yuan to 5516 yuan/ton. The spot price in the mainstream East China region was 5335 yuan/ton (down 5 yuan month-on-month), and the spot price in Shandong was 5223 yuan/ton (up 11 yuan month-on-month). Long positions decreased by 240 lots to 19,500 lots, and short positions decreased by 377 to 25,000 lots [2] Important Information - Supply: In December, the domestic pure benzene production was 1.934 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.3%. In November, the pure benzene import volume was 459,600 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 7.4%. In November 2025, the import volume was 459,624.998 tons, with a month-on-month decline of 7.48%, a year-on-year increase of 5.93%, and a cumulative import volume increase of 33.61% compared to the same period last year [2] - Inventory: The total commercial inventory of pure benzene at Jiangsu ports was 318,000 tons, up 18,000 tons from the previous period (a month-on-month increase of 6.00%) and 132,800 tons more than the same period last year (a year-on-year increase of 71.71%). From December 29 to January 4, the estimated arrival was about 25,000 tons, and the pick-up was about 7,000 tons [2] - Demand: The styrene operating rate was 70.7%, a month-on-month increase of 1.6%; the phenol operating rate was 78%, a month-on-month increase of 3%; the caprolactam operating rate was 74.1%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.1%; the aniline operating rate was 62.8%, a month-on-month increase of 1.6%; the adipic acid operating rate was 63.6%, a month-on-month increase of 4%. Caprolactam factories started self-disciplinary production cuts, and there may be a decrease in monthly pure benzene demand from December to January. The second line of Guangxi Hengyi's caprolactam plant was put into operation [2] - International Oil Prices: The market believes that the instability of the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Iran situations has increased, raising potential supply risks and causing international oil prices to rise. The NYMEX crude oil futures 02 contract rose 1.36 dollars/barrel to 59.12 dollars/barrel (a month-on-month increase of 2.35%); the ICE Brent crude oil futures 03 contract rose 1.35 dollars/barrel to 63.34 dollars/barrel (a month-on-month increase of 2.18%); the Chinese INE crude oil futures 2602 contract rose 7.8 to 425.8 yuan/barrel and 11.9 to 437.7 yuan/barrel at night [2] - Military Movements: According to the US "The War Zone" website on January 5, a large number of US military aircraft suddenly flew to Europe recently, triggering speculation about potential special operations in the region [2] Market Logic - Global geopolitical disturbances are continuous, causing crude oil prices to stabilize and rebound. Last week, the pure benzene inventory at Jiangsu ports continued to accumulate, while the downstream demand-side operations improved. In the short term, the pure benzene price will fluctuate widely, with the reference range for the 03 contract being 5420 - 5580 yuan/ton. Future attention should be focused on port arrivals and the future transaction prices in the US dollar-denominated pure benzene market [2] Trading Strategy - Short-term long positions on dips [2]

早盘提示 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 12 日星期一 Morning session notice Morning session notice 研究员： 刘洋 从业资格： F3063825 交易咨询资格：Z0016580 重要事项: 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 格林大华期货研究院所有 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 ，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | - ...

| 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 周五尿素主力合约 2605 价格下跌 4 元至 1777 元/吨，华中主流地区现货价格 1750 元/吨。持仓方面，多头持仓增加 2362 手至 22.94 万手，空头持仓增加 2118 手至 24.84 万手。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、供应方面，尿素行业日产 20.4 万吨，较上一工作日增加 0.14 万吨；较去年同期 | | | | | 增加 2.79 万吨；今日开工率 83.28%，较去年同期 77.47%回升 5.81%。 | | | | | 2、库存方面，中国尿素企业总库存量 102.22 万吨，较上周增加 0.30 万吨，环比增 | | | | | 加 0.29%。尿素港口样本库存量 14 万吨，环比-3.2 万吨。 | | | | | 3、需求方面，复合肥开工率 37.7%，环比-1.6%，三聚氰胺开工率 58.5%，环比-3.1%。 | | | | | 4、1 月 2 日印度 NFL 尿素进口招标，共收到 26 个供货商，总计 ...

农林畜产品分册 ——2026 年市场回顾与 2025 年展望 格林大华期货研究院 刘锦 投资咨询号：Z0011862 从业资格号： F0276812 摘要 2026 年度报告中国期货期权市场年度报告 油脂：沉舟侧畔千帆过 病树前头万木春 粕类：远山初见疑无路 曲径徐行渐有村 全球宏观关注要点，2025 年中美之间先后经历了 5 轮经贸争端，在激烈的对抗中， 中方表现坚定，维护自身利益，最终美方在稀土受制和大豆出口腰斩的背景下，在第 五轮经贸谈判中做出主动取消芬太尼为首的关税行动，中方开始采购美豆。全球大豆 贸易导向从"供给定价"转为"需求定价"。2026 年对全球经济的展望，1、从经济 周期视角，2026 年一季度美国经济大概率见顶。美国消费仍是全球经济的原动力，美 国经济的下行将对全球经济产生外溢风险。2026 年夏季美国经济出现经济金融危机的 1 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年全年，油脂板块整体走势振荡偏强，各品种强弱时间上略有分化。棕榈油先抑 后扬，全年波幅最大；菜籽油领涨植物油板块；豆油全年是区间振荡为主。棕榈方面： 2025 年 1-5 月，印尼 B40 政策不明朗，产量增加，出口降 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The global economy has passed its peak and is starting to decline due to the continuous wrong policies of the United States [4] - The United States' return to the Monroe Doctrine and global contraction will have a profound and disruptive impact on major asset classes such as the global economy, US Treasuries, US stocks, the US dollar, precious metals, and industrial metals [3] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Global Economic News - President Trump announced a $200 billion mortgage - bond purchase plan through Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to lower mortgage rates [1] - US White House assistants are considering paying $100,000 to each Greenland resident to persuade them to break away from Denmark; Greenland has about one - third of the world's rare - earth reserves, 17.5 billion barrels of oil, and 4.15 trillion cubic meters of natural gas [1] - US December non - farm payrolls increased by 50,000, below expectations; the December unemployment rate was 4.4%, below the expected 4.5%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point Fed rate cut in January dropped to 5% [1] - The AI boom is reshaping the global financing market, and in 2025, the global convertible bond financing scale soared to about $166.5 billion, a 24 - year high since 2001 [1] - As the AI theme boom may slow down, market focus is shifting to US "middle - class consumption", which may drive the US stock bull market in 2026 [1] - In 2025, US employers announced 1.206 million layoffs, a 58% increase from 2024, the highest in five years, mainly due to federal government spending cuts and tech industry strategic adjustments [1] - The eurozone labor market showed resilience, with the November unemployment rate dropping to 6.3%, but future employment recovery will be uneven [1] - Russia expressed serious concern about the US's illegal force action against a Russian oil tanker, which may intensify military and political tensions in the Euro - Atlantic region [1] Global Economic Logic - The US's actions in capturing the Venezuelan president, seizing oil tankers, and trying to buy Greenland have led to a "collapse" of the global political order, bringing great uncertainty to the global economy [2] - Fed uncertainty is expected to peak from July to November 2026, and there may be a trend of "fleeing US assets" [2] - The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points in December and began buying $40 billion in short - term bonds per month, restarting the expansion of its balance sheet [2] - The decline in Las Vegas gambling revenue is similar to the early warning signals before the 2008 financial crisis [2] - The US released a new National Security Strategy, aiming to adjust economic relations with China and revitalize its economic autonomy [2] - Consumer K - shaped differentiation in the US is intensifying, with high - income consumers' spending remaining resilient while low - and middle - income families are cutting back [2] - The Bank of Japan raised rates by 25 basis points, and the yield of 10 - year Japanese government bonds rose to 2.1% [2] - Google plans to double AI computing power every six months and achieve a 1000 - fold increase in the next 4 - 5 years [2] - Morgan Stanley believes that AI data center construction will require at least $5 trillion in the next five years [2] - NVIDIA's CEO said China will win the AI competition due to a more favorable regulatory environment and lower energy costs [2] - The US unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, and economists are worried that large - scale corporate layoffs are an economic warning signal [2]