1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - For the vegetable oil sector, due to weak external and domestic markets, the rebound failed. It is recommended to hold short positions and not to bottom - fish. For the two - meal sector, in the short term, it is expected to mainly adjust in a range, and intraday short - side operations are recommended, with new short positions added after the support level is broken [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Vegetable Oil Market Review - On December 19, the vegetable oil sector's rebound failed. The main contract of soybean oil Y2605 closed at 7712 yuan/ton, down 1.15% day - on - day, with an increase of 11,645 lots in open interest; the main contract of palm oil P2605 closed at 8292 yuan/ton, down 0.91% day - on - day, with an increase of 24,579 lots in open interest; the main contract of rapeseed oil OI2605 closed at 8744 yuan/ton, down 2.25% day - on - day, with an increase of 15,683 lots in open interest [1] Important Information - As of the end of November, NOPA member companies' soybean oil inventory was 1.513 billion pounds, up 15.95% from the end of October and 39.58% year - on - year. The EPA is expected to finalize the 2026 RVO next year. Indian buyers have locked in large - scale soybean oil purchases from April to July 2026. Malaysia's palm oil production is expected to exceed 20 million tons this year. Indonesia's B50 implementation is postponed to the second half of 2026. From December 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 2.4%. As of the 50th week of 2025, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China decreased by 4.86% week - on - week [1] Market Logic - Externally, slow exports to China, reduced domestic crushing demand, and the postponement of the US biodiesel policy led to the weak operation of US soybean oil. Poor export data from Malaysia and Indonesia pressured Malaysian palm oil. Domestically, sufficient raw material supply, accelerated auctions by CGS, and the digestion of customs policies led to the decline of domestic vegetable oils [2] Trading Strategy - For single - side trading, hold short positions in vegetable oils, do not bottom - fish or buy basis. Provide pressure and support levels for each contract, such as the Y2605 contract with a pressure level of 8400 and a support level of 7400. No arbitrage strategy is recommended [2] Two - Meal (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal) Market Review - On December 19, due to CGS's accelerated auction rhythm, the two - meal futures were under pressure. The main contract of soybean meal M2605 closed at 2735 yuan/ton, down 0.44% day - on - day, with a decrease of 1374 lots in open interest; the main contract of rapeseed meal RM2605 closed at 2323 yuan/ton, down 0.73% day - on - day, with an increase of 6138 lots in open interest [2] Important Information - In the 2026/2027 season, US farmers are expected to increase soybean planting area to 85 million acres. Private exporters reported soybean sales to China and unknown destinations. As of December 11, the sowing of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season was 97% complete. StoneX predicted Brazil's soybean output in 2025/26 to reach 178.9 million tons. As of the end of the 50th week of 2025, the inventory of imported soybeans in China increased, while the inventory of imported rapeseed decreased [2][3] Market Logic - Externally, weakening Brazilian soybean premiums and unexpected exports squeezed US soybean export shares, causing US soybeans to continue to fall. Domestically, due to slow de - stocking, the market is cautious. In the short term, Zhengzhou meal is expected to adjust in a range, and it is more sensitive to new topics near the delivery date [3] Trading Strategy - For single - side trading, conduct intraday short - side operations on soybean meal and rapeseed meal, and add new short positions after the support level is broken. Provide pressure and support levels for each contract, such as the M2605 contract with a pressure level of 2858 and a support level of 2660. No arbitrage strategy is recommended [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Friday, driven by external markets, the major indices of the two markets in China showed strong performance, with growth - style indices rebounding more strongly. Global investors are regaining confidence in China's long - term growth due to China's technological breakthroughs, cost advantages in AI and other fields, and its resilience in the face of external pressures. In 2026, factors such as incremental macro - policies, declining risk - free rates, the transfer of household savings to the stock market, and continuous inflow of long - term funds will boost the valuation of the A - share market. Global funds are re - increasing their positions in the Chinese stock market, and the Chinese technology sector is becoming a new destination for global funds to layout AI. The risk of a significant rise in the Chinese stock market in 2026 is much higher than that of a significant decline [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Friday, the major indices of the two markets ran strongly, with the CSI 500 up 0.97%, the CSI 300 up 0.34%, the CSI 1000 up 0.79%, and the SSE 50 up 0.19%. The trading volume of the two markets was 1.72 trillion yuan, showing a slight increase. Among industry and theme ETFs, tourism, aerospace, intelligent connected vehicle, industrial non - ferrous, and grain ETFs led the gains, while energy, science and technology innovation board artificial intelligence, and chip equipment ETFs led the losses. Among sector indices, Hainan Free Trade, general retail, sports, planting, and duty - free concept indices led the gains, while forestry, components, glass fiber, national banks, and oil and gas exploration indices led the losses. The CSI 500, CSI 300, CSI 1000, and SSE 50 index futures saw net inflows of 37, 31, 24, and 14 billion yuan respectively [1] 3.2 Important News - The Academic Committee of the China Capital Market Society was established to provide theoretical support for the construction of a strong capital market. From December 12th to 18th, the daily trading volume of the A500ETF in the entire market exceeded 40 billion yuan for five consecutive trading days. On December 17th, the total net inflow of stock ETFs was 16.29 billion yuan, with 45 A500ETFs attracting 11.159 billion yuan, accounting for 68.5%. On December 18th, the "investment gold price" display in Shuibei disappeared, and the gold price was shown as the "jewelry gold price". The Bank of Japan Governor said that if the economic outlook is achieved, the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates. According to a Deutsche Bank survey, 57% of respondents listed the burst of the technology bubble as the top risk. European Central Bank officials expect the current interest - rate cut cycle to end. The White House economic advisor said that the CPI report was excellent, and the Fed has room to cut interest rates. OpenAI is planning a new round of up to $100 billion in financing. Meta is developing new AI models. The $63 trillion shadow banking system and the $1.8 trillion private credit market are potential risks to the global financial market. Major oilfield service companies are entering the data center field. In October, foreign holdings of US Treasury bonds decreased by $5.8 billion. The US state of Michigan approved power support for data center projects of Oracle and OpenAI [1][2] 3.3 Market Logic - Driven by external markets, the major indices of the two markets in China showed strong performance. Global investors are regaining confidence in China's long - term growth. The social security fund will carry out asset allocation scientifically. In 2025, the stock market had a net inflow of 2.26 trillion yuan. In 2026, insurance, wealth management, and pension funds will be the three major sources of incremental funds, with institutional incremental funds reaching 3.1 trillion yuan. The scale of public fixed - income + products will at least double. International funds are turning to the AI track outside the US, and the Chinese technology sector is becoming a new destination for global funds to layout AI [1][2][3] 3.4 Market Outlook - Driven by external markets, the major indices of the two markets in China showed strong performance. The social security fund will play the role of long - term funds. Global funds are re - increasing their positions in the Chinese stock market. The risk of a significant rise in the Chinese stock market in 2026 is much higher than that of a significant decline. Google plans to increase AI computing power. The US's return to the Monroe Doctrine will accelerate the flow of global funds to the Chinese capital market. The Fed will cut interest rates and expand its balance sheet. The major indices of the two markets were strongly sorted on Friday, and the main funds protected the market at the 3800 - point level of the Shanghai Composite Index. The market is expected to enter a sideways - shock phase to wait for new opportunities [1][2][3] 3.5 Trading Strategies - For stock index futures directional trading, the market is expected to enter a sideways - shock phase to wait for new opportunities. For stock index option trading, as the market is expected to enter a sideways - shock phase, do not participate in stock index call options for the time being [3]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The latest macroeconomic data indicates that stabilizing growth remains the main theme of the fourth - quarter macroeconomy. The central bank's Party committee meeting points out that next year, a moderately loose monetary policy will continue to be implemented, with promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery as important considerations. Treasury bond futures may fluctuate in the short term, and trading - type investors are advised to conduct band operations [36][37] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Treasury Bond Futures Weekly Market Review - This week, the main contracts of treasury bond futures showed a pattern of bottom - hunting and recovery. The 30 - year treasury bond rose 0.02%, the 10 - year treasury bond rose 0.14%, the 5 - year treasury bond rose 0.14%, and the 2 - year treasury bond rose 0.03% [5] Treasury Bond Spot Yield Curve Changes - As of December 19th, compared with December 12th, the treasury bond spot yield curve shifted slightly downward. The 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond yields decreased by 2BP, 3BP, 1BP, and 2BP respectively [8] Fixed - Asset Investment - From January to November, national fixed - asset investment decreased by 2.6% year - on - year, worse than the market expectation of a 2.2% decline. Different types of infrastructure and real estate investment also showed various changes [11] New Home Sales - From January to November, the sales area of new commercial housing decreased by 7.8% year - on - year, and the sales amount decreased by 11.1% year - on - year. In November, new home sales continued to decline significantly [14] Second - Hand Residential Sales Prices - In November, the second - hand residential sales prices in first - tier cities decreased by 1.1% month - on - month, with the decline expanding by 0.2 percentage points. Second - and third - tier cities also had different degrees of decline [17] Social Consumption - In November, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 1.3% year - on - year, lower than the market expectation. From January to November, service retail sales increased by 5.4% year - on - year [19][22] Industrial Added Value - In November, the value - added of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 4.8% year - on - year, lower than the market expectation. The growth rates of different industries also showed changes [24] Product Sales Rate - In November, the product sales rate of industrial enterprises above designated size was 96.5%, 0.6 percentage points lower year - on - year [27] Service Industry Production Index - In November, the national service industry production index increased by 4.2% year - on - year, hitting a new low for the year [30] Unemployment Rate - In November, the national urban survey unemployment rate was 5.1%, unchanged from the previous month [32] Capital Interest Rates - This week, overnight capital interest rates remained at a low level. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.273%, and that of DR007 was 1.443%. The average issuance interest rate of one - year AAA inter - bank certificates of deposit was 1.657% [34] Market Logic - In November, fixed - asset investment and social consumption were lower than market expectations, while export growth exceeded expectations. The inflation level remained moderate, and the short - term trend of treasury bond futures may be volatile [36] Trading Strategy - Trading - type investors are advised to conduct band operations [37]

Report Overview - **Date**: December 19, 2025 - **Researcher**: Zhang Xiaojun - **Contact**: 0371 - 65617380 - **Qualification**: F0242716 (Futures Practitioner), Z0011864 (Futures Trading Consultant) Report Key Points Corn - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: Corn prices face both support and pressure, and are seeking to verify support levels [4] - **Summary by Category** - **Important Information**: On the 19th, deep - processing enterprise purchase prices in the northeast and north China rose slightly; north - south port prices were stable with a slight increase; corn futures warehouse receipts decreased by 627 lots; the wheat - corn price difference in Shandong narrowed; in November 2025, corn imports reached a yearly high, with cumulative imports from January - November down 86.08% year - on - year, and cumulative imports from October - November up 67.27% year - on - year; the bid - invitation sales of imported corn by CGSCC had a 100% transaction rate [4][5] - **Market Logic**: Short - term, prices oscillate due to seasonal selling pressure and support from farmers' reluctance to sell and downstream inventory building; medium - term, seasonal selling pressure remains before the Spring Festival, and policy grain auctions may provide supply next year; long - term, the pricing logic is import substitution and planting costs, with policy orientation being key [5] - **Trading Strategy**: Maintain a range - trading approach in the medium - to - long - term. Currently, suggest waiting or short - term trading. For the 2601 contract, support is at 2200 - 2220; for the 2603 contract, support is at 2180 - 2190. Consider low - buying opportunities if support holds [6] Pig - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: After the Winter Solstice stocking, the supply pressure of pigs is emerging [9] - **Summary by Category** - **Important Information**: On the 19th, the national average pig price fell; the number of sows in October 2025 was below 40 million; the number of piglets from January - September increased, with a decrease in October; the average slaughter weight of pigs increased; the fat - lean price difference was stable; and the number of pig futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged [9] - **Market Logic**: Short - term, the end of Winter Solstice stocking has led to a price decline. Medium - term, supply is expected to increase until March next year, with relief starting from April. Long - term, supply pressure exists until September next year, and may ease after that if sow inventory continues to decline [10] - **Trading Strategy**: The 2601 contract follows the basis - repair logic; the 2603 contract returns to range - trading; far - month contracts trade on the expected difference in capacity reduction. If sow inventory continues to decline, consider low - buying opportunities after September next year. Provide support and pressure levels for each contract [11] Egg - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The egg market has a weak current situation but strong expectations, with near - month contracts being weak and far - month contracts being strong [16] - **Summary by Category** - **Important Information**: On the 19th, egg spot prices were stable with a slight increase; inventory increased significantly; the price of old hens decreased; the number of laying hens in November decreased month - on - month and increased year - on - year, and is expected to decline further in December [16] - **Market Logic**: Short - term, egg prices are in a low - range, and focus on downstream consumption and inventory. Medium - term, egg supply pressure remains, and the upward momentum of spot prices is limited. Long - term, the increasing scale of egg production may limit price increases, and wait for over - culling to drive capacity reduction [17] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait for short - selling opportunities in near - month contracts after inventory accumulation. In the medium - to - long - term, focus on whether low prices can drive culling and capacity reduction. Currently, supply pressure exists before the second quarter next year, and whether the second quarter can be a turning point depends on first - quarter culling [18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main funds are protecting the market around the 3800 - point level of the Shanghai Composite Index, and the stock index has entered a sideways oscillation period [4][59] - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, started buying $40 billion in short - term Treasury bonds monthly, and restarted balance - sheet expansion [7] - Global funds are re - increasing their positions in the Chinese stock market. The Chinese technology sector is becoming a new battlefield for global funds to deploy in AI. JPMorgan believes that in 2026, the risk of a significant rise in the Chinese stock market is much higher than that of a significant decline [10] - The market is expected to be in a sideways oscillation market, waiting for new opportunities [10][11] 3. Summary by Related Data and Indicators 3.1 Domestic Macroeconomic Data - In November, the year - on - year growth rate of the core CPI was 1.2%, the real interest rate has been negative for consecutive periods, and the PPI increased by 0.1% month - on - month [12] - In November, the year - on - year growth rate of M1 was 4.9%, and that of M2 was 8.0%. The decline in the year - on - year growth rate of M1 affected the stock market's capital supply [14] - In November, non - bank financial institutions only added 80 billion yuan in RMB deposits, while residents' savings increased by 654.3 billion yuan [17] - The margin trading balance exceeded 2.5 trillion yuan, and in November, 2.38 million new A - share accounts were opened [20] - In November, China's export value was $330.3 billion, with a year - on - year growth rate of 5.9%, indicating export resilience [23] - In November, the monthly value of manufacturing fixed - asset investment was 2.94 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of - 4.4%, showing a slowdown in manufacturing investment [26] - In November, the monthly value of infrastructure investment was 2.08 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of - 11.9%, indicating a slowdown in infrastructure investment and reflecting local fiscal difficulties [29] - In November, the year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment hit a new low of - 31.3% [32] - In November, the monthly value of total retail sales of consumer goods was 4.38 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of 1.3%. Consumption has become the main driving force for economic growth [35] 3.2 US Economic Data - In November, the US core CPI was 2.6%, far lower than the expected 3.0% [38] - The number of initial jobless claims in the US was 224,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.6% [41] - In November, the number of new ADP employment in the US showed negative growth, and the number of active corporate layoffs increased rapidly [44] - In October, the month - on - month growth rate of the total retail and food sales in the US was zero, indicating a weakening of US consumption [47] - In September, the year - on - year and month - on - month import amounts of US capital goods declined rapidly, suggesting a poor manufacturing outlook [50] - In November, the US manufacturing PMI price index continued to expand, and the service PMI price index still expanded rapidly, indicating accelerating inflation in the US [53] 3.3 Japanese Economic Data - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.75%. The yield of Japanese 10 - year Treasury bonds soared to 2%. The large - scale return of yen carry - trade will have a negative impact on US bonds, US stocks, and Chinese bonds [56]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The global economy is turning weak as the US economy is sliding towards stagflation, and the US's return to the Monroe Doctrine will have a profound impact on major asset classes. Meanwhile, precious metals and some industrial metals are expected to perform well in the context of the Fed's balance - sheet expansion and the re - monetization trend in the post - dollar era [4][37] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Global Economic Outlook - **US Economic Indicators** - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points and started buying $40 billion in short - term Treasuries monthly, and its balance sheet expansion restarted. Some traders are betting on a rate cut in Q1. The US unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, and the number of initial jobless claims was 224,000. The November core CPI was 2.6%, lower than the expected 3.0%. The US employment situation deteriorated with negative growth in November's new ADP employment and a rapid rise in the number of corporate layoffs. Retail and food sales in October showed zero monthly growth, indicating weakening consumption. Capital goods imports in September declined both year - on - year and month - on - month, suggesting a poor manufacturing outlook. The November ISM manufacturing PMI continued to contract, while the manufacturing and service PMI price indices expanded, indicating accelerating inflation. The September PPI commodity monthly growth rate was 0.9% [4][5][8][11][14][17][20][23][26][29] - **Other Global Economies** - The eurozone's November manufacturing PMI contracted again, and its economy was significantly affected by US reciprocal tariffs. The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.75%, the 10 - year Japanese government bond yield soared to 2%, and the large - scale return of yen carry - trades will have a negative impact on US, Chinese bonds and US stocks [32][34] Asset Allocation - **Equity Assets** - Main funds are protecting the Shanghai Composite Index at the 3800 level, and the A - share market has entered a sideways shock period. The Fed's balance - sheet expansion is beneficial to Chinese equity assets [37][38] - **Precious Metals** - The Fed's balance - sheet expansion strongly benefits gold, which is expected to hit a previous high, and the monetization of gold is accelerating in the post - dollar era. Silver prices reached a new high, which is due to physical shortages and the re - monetization of silver in the post - dollar era. Platinum prices hit a new high with a third - consecutive - year shortage, and it is a key material in the hydrogen - energy era, starting to be monetized in the post - dollar era. Palladium prices also reached a new high, and the EU's extension of the fuel - vehicle ban is beneficial to palladium, which is also starting to be monetized in the post - dollar era [37][40][43][46][49] - **Industrial Metals** - Due to the surge in chip demand, tin demand is expected to increase sharply as chip packaging is the main area of tin consumption, and tin is expected to enter a shortage era. The US dollar is expected to depreciate significantly in 2026, and the RMB is likely to appreciate to below 6.80 yuan [37][52]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The lithium carbonate industry is driven by factors such as anti - involution, mining rights and environmental protection rectification, and unexpected storage demand, leading to large fluctuations in spot and futures prices [2]. - Most surveyed enterprises maintain a high operating rate, and those without raw material channel advantages may be restricted by raw material procurement. If the market remains optimistic, enterprises plan to continue production during the Spring Festival [2]. - The trade point - price sales model can relieve the enterprise's capital turnover pressure and avoid price fluctuation risks, allowing enterprises to sell products as they are produced with low - level inventory [2]. - Although the current lithium carbonate price can cover production costs, enterprises do not want prices to skyrocket as it will intensify procurement competition and bring cost pressures after price corrections [2]. 3. Company - Specific Summaries A. A Enterprise (Wet - recycling enterprise) - It focuses on recycling lithium from waste lithium - iron - phosphate batteries, with 100,000 tons of wet - recycling of waste lithium - iron - phosphate batteries and 10,000 tons of lithium carbonate processing production lines. It has stopped mica - based lithium extraction due to intense competition and raw material scarcity [3]. - The monthly production capacity is 600 - 700 tons, with an annual capacity of 6000 - 7000 tons and an 80% operating rate. Product inventory is about 200 - 300 tons [3]. - It recycles 2000 - 3000 tons of raw materials monthly, with a 6:4 ratio of factory waste to battery recycling. It does not purchase salt - lake crude carbon due to high freight and narrow profit margins [3]. - It sells products mainly through trade channels and post - point - price methods (about 60% of sales), and has hedged next month's production [3]. B. B Enterprise (Lithium carbonate production enterprise) - It uses low - grade lithium ore and tailings to produce lithium - containing brine and produces electric carbon through a subcontracting model. It plans to launch a potassium - salt separation process in the future [5]. - The operating rate reaches 80% of the designed capacity, producing 10 - 15 tons of brine per day. It has stocked raw materials for 2 months and plans to continue production during the Spring Festival if the market is good [5]. - It sells products using the point - price model, with electric carbon at a discount of 800 - 1500 yuan/ton to the 05 contract. It does not hedge on its own to quickly recover funds and has about 100 tons of inventory [5]. C. C Enterprise (Lithium carbonate production enterprise) - It has a planned total capacity of 30,000 tons/year, with a 15,000 - ton/year production line built and a monthly output of 700 - 800 tons [8]. - It can use a small amount of mica ore mixed with lithium - spodumene or brine for lithium extraction. The switch between mica and spodumene production lines takes about one quarter [8]. - It mainly engages in subcontracting, with low self - owned product proportion due to raw material procurement difficulties. It sells products mainly through cooperation with traders, with a 100 - 200 - ton inventory level [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. 2. Core Viewpoints - The global economy is turning weak as the US is making a series of wrong policies and is starting to contract globally, which will have a profound impact on major asset classes [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro and Financial - Global Economy - Trump stated that the next Fed Chair must believe in "significant rate cuts" and mortgage loan rates will further decline, and he previously asked to cut rates to 1% [1]. - The Bank of Japan is focusing on its subsequent policy path, needing to balance multiple goals [1]. - Trump's account plan is to provide $1000 for newborns to invest in US stocks, which could grow to about $5800 at 18 and about $600,000 at retirement, and over $300,000 at 18 with additional family investment [1]. - PJM's latest electricity supply auction will cost consumers $16.4 billion, with the daily cost per megawatt rising from $329.17 to $333.44 [1]. - The global platinum market will face a third - consecutive - year supply shortage in 2025, with a gap of 850,000 ounces and limited supply growth in the future [1]. - Hedge fund Point72 is considering entering the commodity trading business due to asset price fluctuations [1]. - Early Bitcoin holders are cashing out at the fastest pace in recent years, and the absorbing demand from ETFs and institutions has faded [1]. - India has become the most active AI consumer market globally, but local startups face greater competition [1]. - The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points in December, buys $40 billion of short - term bonds monthly, and its balance sheet is expanding again [2]. - Some traders are betting on a Q1 rate - cut in the changing bond - option market [2]. - The decline in Las Vegas gambling revenue is similar to the 2008 financial crisis warning [2]. - The US released a new National Security Strategy, adjusting its economic relationship with China [2]. - The Fed's Beige Book shows a K - shaped consumer spending gap in the US [2]. - Japan's 10 - year Treasury yield reached its highest since July 2007 [2]. - AI - driven investment will expand the credit market, with investment - grade bond issuance expected to reach $2.25 trillion [2]. - Google plans to double AI computing power every 6 months and achieve a 1000 - fold increase in 4 - 5 years [2]. - NVIDIA's CEO believes China will win the AI race due to regulatory and energy cost advantages [2]. - AI data - center construction will require at least $5 trillion in the next five years [2]. - The US unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, raising concerns about economic slowdown [2].

Group 1 - Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2 - Core View of the Report - The methanol price is expected to fluctuate moderately upward. Traders are advised to hold long positions. The reference range for the 05 contract is 2120 - 2220. Key factors to monitor are the extent of port inventory reduction and the start - stop status of Iranian plants [1] Group 3 - Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Thursday night, the futures price of the main contract 2605 dropped by 6 yuan to 2166 yuan/ton. The spot price of methanol in the mainstream areas of East China rose by 25 yuan to 2155 yuan/ton. Long positions increased by 9246 lots to 555,000 lots, and short positions increased by 6251 lots to 645,500 lots [1] Important Information - Supply: The domestic methanol operating rate is 90.5%, a 0.9% increase from the previous period. The overseas methanol operating rate is 62%, a 1.8% decrease from the previous period [1] - Inventory: The total port inventory of methanol in China is 1218,800 tons, a decrease of 15,600 tons from the previous data. East China's inventory decreased by 31,000 tons, while South China's inventory increased by 15,400 tons. The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 391,100 tons, an increase of 38,300 tons from the previous period, a 10.86% increase [1] - Demand: The signed orders of northwest methanol enterprises are 86,900 tons, a decrease of 1900 tons from the previous period. The pending orders of sample enterprises are 220,400 tons, an increase of 13,000 tons from the previous period, a 6.25% increase. The olefin operating rate is 89.4%, a 0.7% decrease; the dimethyl ether operating rate is 7%, a 1.9% decrease; the methyl chloride operating rate is 81.1%, a 5.4% decrease; the acetic acid operating rate is 76.5%, a 2.6% increase; the formaldehyde operating rate is 42.5%, a 1.1% increase; the MTBE operating rate is 68.9%, a 0.8% decrease [1] - Macro: The US Bureau of Labor Statistics' delayed report shows that the consumer price index (CPI) in November increased by 2.7% year - on - year, lower than market expectations. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in January next year has risen from 26.6% to 28.8%. Traders are betting that the Fed will cut interest rates by 62 basis points next year [1] Market Logic - Recently, Iran's 2.3 - million - ton Kaveh plant has shut down due to gas restrictions, and the 1.65 - million - ton Busher plant has shut down due to equipment issues, with an expected one - week maintenance. The second round of plant shutdowns in Iran has begun. This week, port inventory continued to decline while inland inventory increased, which is in line with market expectations. The import volume in October was 1.612 million tons, a 13% increase from the previous month [1] Trading Strategy - Hold long positions [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the energy and chemical industry's bottle chip sector is "Oscillating Bullish" [3] Report's Core View - The price of bottle chip futures rose at night on Thursday, with both long and short positions decreasing. Supply and cost - profit indicators were mostly stable this week, exports increased in October, and international oil prices rose due to supply risks. The short - term bottle chip price will follow raw materials to oscillate, and the recommended strategy is to wait and see or take short - term long positions [3] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Thursday night, the main price of bottle chips rose 90 yuan to 5762 yuan/ton. The price of East China water - grade bottle chips was 5675 yuan/ton (+10), and the price in South China was 5700 yuan/ton. Long positions decreased by 1359 lots to 64,700 lots, and short positions decreased by 707 lots to 62,400 lots [3] Important Information - Supply and cost - profit: Domestic polyester bottle chip production was 333,600 tons, with a weekly average capacity utilization rate of 73.05%, both unchanged from the previous week. The production cost was 5184 yuan/ton, a decrease of 31 yuan/ton from the previous week, and the weekly production profit was - 118 yuan/ton, an increase of 11 yuan/ton from the previous week [3] - In October 2025, China's polyester bottle chip exports were 523,100 tons, an increase of 55,300 tons from the previous month. The cumulative export volume in 2025 was 5.3321 million tons [3] - Due to the tense situation between the US and Venezuela and the possibility of new US sanctions on Russia, international oil prices rose. NYMEX crude oil futures 01 contract rose 0.21 dollars to 56.15 dollars/barrel (+0.38% week - on - week), ICE Brent crude oil futures 02 contract rose 0.14 dollars to 59.82 dollars/barrel (+0.23% week - on - week), and China INE crude oil futures 2602 contract rose 4.0 to 428.3 yuan/ton, and rose 0.3 to 428.6 yuan/ton at night [3] - The US November CPI rose 2.7% year - on - year, lower than expected. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in January next year increased from 26.6% to 28.8%, and traders bet that the Fed will cut interest rates by 62 basis points next year [3] Market Logic - Last week, bottle chip supply changed little, downstream factories mainly made rigid restocking, and the inventory accumulation in December increased. The expected commissioning of new devices has little impact on the market. Cost support is average, and the short - term bottle chip price will follow raw materials to oscillate. The reference range for the main contract PR2603 is 5670 - 5850 yuan/ton [3] Trading Strategy - The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see or take short - term long positions [3]