Report Industry Investment Rating - The report recommends a long position for IH, IF, IM, IC in the macro and financial and stock index sectors [1]. Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai Composite Index is approaching 3,500 points and is expected to break through. The photovoltaic sector, a flag of anti - involution, led the gains. The market is expected to evolve into a trending upward market, and the Shanghai Composite Index is expected to break through 3,500 points [1][2]. - Anti - involution key industries may include photovoltaic, lithium battery, new energy vehicles, e - commerce platforms, etc. High - Goldman Sachs predicts that Chinese listed companies will pay a total of 3 trillion yuan in dividends by the end of 2025, reaching a record high [1][2]. - Global financial asset re - allocation is "de - Americanized", which is expected to accelerate the inflow of international funds into A - shares. The improvement of the national unified market is expected to boost the performance of listed companies [2]. Summary by Directory Market Review - On Tuesday, the main indices of the two markets opened higher and moved up. The Shanghai Composite Index approached 3,500 points again. The turnover of the two markets was 1.45 trillion yuan, showing increasing volume on the rise. The CSI 1000, CSI 500, CSI 300, and SSE 50 indices all rose, with increases of 1.27%, 1.31%, 0.84%, and 0.57% respectively. Among industry and theme ETFs, photovoltaic ETFs, communication ETFs, etc. led the gains, while green power ETFs, power ETFs, etc. led the losses. The CSI 1000, CSI 500, CSI 300, and SSE 50 index futures had net inflows of 9.8 billion, 4.8 billion, 4.5 billion, and 0.5 billion yuan respectively in the precipitation funds [1]. Important Information - Huachuang Securities believes that key anti - involution industries may include photovoltaic, lithium battery, new energy vehicles, e - commerce platforms, etc., and the anti - involution measures are mainly industry self - regulation, administrative guidance, and public opinion supervision [1]. - Goldman Sachs predicts that by the end of 2025, Chinese on - shore and off - shore listed companies will pay a total of 3 trillion yuan in dividends, and the dividend payout ratio of Chinese listed companies reached 39% last year [1]. - The first batch of 10 science and technology innovation bond ETFs were issued, with a single - product limit of 300 million yuan each, and all 10 products were sold out on the first day [1]. - Google's Omar Shams believes that energy supply is the key constraint for the long - term development of AI, and China's annual new power generation capacity exceeds the sum of the UK and France [1]. - In June 2025, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 2.084 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 18.1% and a month - on - month increase of 7.6%. Passenger car exports were 480,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 23.8% and a month - on - month increase of 7.3%. The production of new energy passenger cars reached 1.2 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 28.3% and a month - on - month increase of 2.0% [1]. - Analysts expect the profit growth rate of US stocks in the second quarter to slow down significantly from 12% in the first quarter to 4%. The impact of tariffs has become a market focus [1]. Market Logic - The main indices of the two markets opened higher and moved up on Tuesday, and the anti - involution photovoltaic sector led the gains. The US postponed the implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" from July 9 to August 1. The US will impose reciprocal tariffs on 14 countries from August 1, 2025, which is beneficial to China's exports. Goldman Sachs predicts that Chinese listed companies will pay a record - high 3 trillion yuan in dividends by the end of 2025 [1][2]. Future Outlook - The main indices of the two markets opened higher and moved up on Tuesday, and the anti - involution photovoltaic sector led the gains. The global financial asset re - allocation is "de - Americanized", which is expected to accelerate the inflow of international funds into A - shares. The improvement of the national unified market is expected to boost the performance of listed companies, and the market is expected to evolve into a trending upward market. The Shanghai Composite Index is expected to break through 3,500 points [2]. Trading Strategy - For futures direction trading, it is recommended to be bullish on the four major stock index futures contracts as the market is expected to evolve into a trending upward market and the Shanghai Composite Index is expected to break through 3,500 points [2]. - For stock index option trading, it is recommended to buy long - term deep - out - of - the - money call options on stock indices as the market is expected to evolve into a trending upward market [2].

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 7 月 8 日星期二 研究员： 纪晓云 从业资格： F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 板块 | | | | | | | | 【行情复盘】 周一铁矿主力收于 731.0，下跌 0.68%。夜盘收跌。 【重要资讯】 1、美国总统特朗普当地时间 6 日在社交媒体发文说，美国政府将于当地时间 7 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 中午 | 12 时起公布与贸易伙伴的关税信函或关税协议。特朗普此前表示，拟于 8 月 1 日起对部分国家的商品实施最高达 70%的关税措施。 | | | | | 2、中国煤炭工业协会最新发布的数据显示，前 5 个月全国累计生产原煤 19.9 亿吨， | | | | | 为迎峰度夏能源保供提供坚实支撑。 | | | | | 3、住建部：持续巩固 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term: Egg supply is stable, supply pressure is continuously released, and the spot price may remain weak and low in the short term [5]. - Medium - term: Newly - opened laying hens are increasing, the theoretical inventory of laying hens is on the rise, and the supply pressure at mid - year is high. If the spot price stays low in July, large - scale culling by the farming end may lead to a phased supply reduction, and combined with the Mid - Autumn Festival consumption peak, it may drive a phased rebound in the spot price from August to September, but the rebound high is not overly optimistic [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Performance - The main egg futures contract broke through support and fell. As of the time of writing, the 2508 contract dropped to 3477 yuan/500 kilograms, with a decline of 2.99% [3][6]. Spot Performance - The recent spot price has remained weak and low. On the 7th, the egg price in Guantao, Handan, Hebei was 2.44 yuan/jin, down 0.05 yuan/jin from last Friday [4]. Analysis Logic and Operation Suggestions - Analysis Logic: In the short - term, the supply is stable and the spot price is weak. In the medium - term, the supply pressure is high at mid - year, and there may be a phased rebound from August to September [5]. - Operation Suggestions: The main contract first trades the logic of closing the premium. After the spot price bottoms out, it may trade the consumption peak logic. The 08 contract operates in a wide range with upper pressure at 3600 - 3650 and lower support at 3400 - 3450. The 09 contract maintains a short - selling idea with short - term pressure at 3700 - 3720 and support at 3500 - 3550. Also, pay attention to short - selling opportunities for the 2512, 2601, 2602, and 2603 contracts [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the bond market is "volatile" [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The policy of promoting the construction of a unified national market and rectifying low - price and disorderly competition is conducive to stabilizing prices and restoring corporate profits, but the effect may take a long time to appear. The second - quarter regular meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee suggests increasing the intensity of monetary policy regulation. The 6 - month China Manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, below the boom - bust line for the third consecutive month. After the cross - half - year period, the decline in capital interest rates is beneficial to bond bulls. Treasury bond futures may fluctuate in the short term [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Friday, the main contracts of treasury bond futures opened roughly flat and fluctuated narrowly throughout the day. As of the close, the 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2509 rose 0.11%, the 10 - year T2509 rose 0.03%, the 5 - year TF2509 rose 0.02%, and the 2 - year TS2509 remained flat [3] 3.2 Important Information - **Open Market**: On Friday, the central bank conducted 34 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 525.9 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 491.9 billion yuan [3] - **Funding Market**: On Friday, the short - term interest rates in the inter - bank funding market declined slightly compared to the previous trading day. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.31% (1.32% the previous day), and the weighted average of DR007 was 1.42% (1.47% the previous day) [3] - **Cash Bond Market**: On Friday, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds fluctuated narrowly compared to the previous trading day. The 2 - year treasury bond yield fell 0.77 BP to 1.35%, the 5 - year fell 0.04 BP to 1.49%, the 10 - year rose 0.26 BP to 1.64%, and the 30 - year rose 0.30 BP to 1.85% [3] - **International Trade**: On July 3, the US government allowed General Electric Aerospace to resume supplying jet engines to Comac. The US also lifted export restrictions on Chinese companies by chip design software developers and ethane producers this week. The US President signed 12 trade letters and plans to send them on Monday. Talks with the EU on trade are progressing, and major news may be announced in the next two days [3] - **Domestic Policy**: Since July 5, 2025, anti - dumping duties have been imposed on imported brandy from the EU. The Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development emphasized the importance of promoting the stable, healthy, and high - quality development of the real estate market and called on local governments to implement policies according to local conditions [3] 3.3 Market Logic - The policy of promoting the construction of a unified national market and rectifying low - price and disorderly competition is conducive to stabilizing prices and restoring corporate profits, but it may take a long time for the effects to show. The second - quarter regular meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee suggests increasing the intensity of monetary policy regulation. The 6 - month China Manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, below the boom - bust line for the third consecutive month. After the cross - half - year period, the decline in capital interest rates is beneficial to bond bulls. Treasury bond futures may fluctuate in the short term [4] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Traders should conduct band - trading operations [4]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for methanol in the energy and chemical industry is "oscillating", and the trading strategy is "wait - and - see" [2] 2. Core View - Geopolitical conflicts may recur, downstream demand in July is in a seasonal off - season, and both ports and production areas have slightly increased inventory. After some Iranian plants restart, the bearish sentiment is released. The anti - involution meeting has temporarily improved market sentiment. In the short term, methanol prices will oscillate, and the upside potential should be viewed cautiously, with a reference range of 2360 - 2460 yuan/ton [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Friday night, the futures price of the main methanol contract fell 14 yuan/ton to 2401 yuan/ton, and the spot price in the mainstream East China region dropped 15 yuan/ton to 2445 yuan/ton. Long positions decreased by 13,418 lots to 400,400 lots, and short positions decreased by 1,635 lots to 467,400 lots [2] 3.2 Important Information - **Supply**: The domestic methanol operating rate is 88.18%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.45%. The overseas methanol operating rate is 54.25%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.7% [2] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of Chinese methanol ports is 673,700 tons, an increase of 3,200 tons from the previous period. The inventory in East China increased by 13,500 tons, while that in South China decreased by 10,300 tons. The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 352,300 tons, an increase of 10,700 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 3.14% [2] - **Demand**: The signing volume of northwest methanol enterprises is 60,000 tons, an increase of 13,000 tons month - on - month. The pending orders of sample enterprises are 241,300 tons, an increase of 500 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.23%. The olefin operating rate is 85.25%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.09%; the dimethyl ether operating rate is 5.19%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.97%; the methyl chloride operating rate is 79.75%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.38%; the acetic acid operating rate is 93.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.93%; the formaldehyde operating rate is 46.07%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.88% [2] - **Other News**: US President Trump announced a trade agreement with Vietnam. Vietnam will impose a 20% tariff on goods exported to the US, and a 40% tariff on any transshipped goods. Vietnam has also agreed to cancel all taxes on imported US goods [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel products in the black building materials sector is "Bullish" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - Despite the lack of significant improvement at the industrial level, the short - term market may continue to be bullish under the anti - involution macro - expectations, but caution is needed regarding the upside potential [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Review - On Friday, the main contract of rebar closed at 3072, up 0.23%; the main contract of hot - rolled coil closed at 3201, up 0.25%; the main contract of stainless steel closed at 12730, up 0.539%. The night - session closed lower [1] Important News - The "Qiushi" magazine emphasizes creating a fair - competition market environment. Trump announced that the US government will start sending letters to trading partners to set new unilateral tariff rates, likely to take effect on August 1st, with rates ranging from 10% - 20% to 60% - 70%. The Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development plans to promote the stabilization of the real - estate market [1] Market Logic - On Friday, the spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil generally rose with average trading volume. After reaching new highs, the futures prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil declined. Recently, blast - furnace overhauls have increased, and there are emission - reduction and production - restriction measures in Tangshan from July 4 - 15, having little impact on overall production. Steel inventories decreased slightly last week, and demand shows off - season characteristics [1] Trading Strategy - Short - term bullish trading strategy is recommended [1] Support and Resistance Levels - The resistance level of the main rebar contract has moved up to 3130, with an important support level at 3000. The support level of hot - rolled coil is 3026, and the resistance level is 3282. The support level of stainless steel is 12300, and the resistance level is 13000 [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The precious metals market is expected to be volatile in the short - term. After the release of the strong US June non - farm payrolls report last Thursday, gold futures prices dropped and then rebounded, while the US dollar index jumped and then fell. Silver and gold oscillated on Friday. The outcome of tariff negotiations between the US, the EU, and other countries will impact the global economy and financial markets, and the implementation of global trade negotiations needs further observation. Investors are advised to remain on the sidelines [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Market Quotes - COMEX gold futures rose 0.11% to $3346.5 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 0.14% to $37.14 per ounce. During the night session, the main contract of Shanghai gold rose 0.19% to 777.00 yuan per gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver rose 0.16% to 8931 yuan per kilogram [1]. Important Information - As of 8:32 on the 5th, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, remained unchanged at 947.66 tons compared to the previous trading day [1]. - The US President stated that he had signed 12 trade letters and planned to send them on Monday. Bessent said that trade consultations with the EU were in progress, and major news might be announced in the next two days [1]. - The Tariff Commission of the State Council decided to impose anti - dumping duties on imported relevant brandy from the EU starting from July 5, 2025 [1]. Market Logic - The stronger - than - expected US June non - farm payrolls report on Thursday night led traders to withdraw their bets on a Fed rate cut this month, causing a plunge in gold futures prices followed by a rebound, while the US dollar index jumped and then fell. Silver and gold oscillated on Friday. The expiration of the grace period for reciprocal tariffs set by the US on July 9 and the final negotiation results of tariffs between the US, the EU, and other countries will affect the global economy and financial markets [1]. Trading Strategy - Precious metal prices are expected to continue to oscillate, and investors are advised to stay on the sidelines. COMEX gold is expected to trade between $3250 - $3480 per ounce, COMEX silver between $35.0 - $37.4 per ounce, the main contract of Shanghai gold between 750 - 800 yuan per gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver between 8450 - 9075 yuan per kilogram [1].

研究员： 于军礼 从业资格： F0247894 交易咨询资格：Z0000112 联系方式：yujunli@greendh.com 早盘提示 Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 7 月 7 日星期一 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周五在银行板块拉升的带动下，上证指数向 3500 点整数位发起冲击，未能冲过后， | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 卖盘涌出，日线收出长上影。两市成交额 1.42 万亿元，温和放量。中证 1000 指数 收 6312 点，跌 30 点，跌幅-0.48%；中证 500 指数收 5911 点，跌 11 点，跌幅-0.19%； 沪深 300 指数收 3982 点，涨 14，涨幅 0.36%；上证 50 指数收 2740 点，涨 15 点， | | | | | 涨幅 0.58%。行业与主题 ETF 中涨幅居前的是游戏 ETF、银行 ETF、金融科技 ETF、 | | | | | 创新药 ETF、科创医药 ET ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The global economy in the macro and financial sector is rated as "Bullish" [1] Core View - The global economy maintains an upward direction, with positive factors such as strong US non - farm payroll data in June, expected Fed rate cut in September, expanding manufacturing PMIs in the US and China, and improved European manufacturing due to ECB rate cuts and Germany's military expansion [1] Summary by Related Information Important News - Trump has signed tariff letters to about 12 countries with tax rates from 10% to 70%, to be sent on July 8 and implemented on August 1 [1] - US Treasury Secretary Bentsen suggests a possible larger rate cut in September if no near - term cut [1] - UK Chancellor of the Exchequer's 5 - billion - pound welfare cut plan was rejected, causing a more than 20 - basis - point jump in 30 - year UK bond yields [1] - Bentsen says the US is taking measures to maintain the dollar's reserve status and warns about the euro - dollar exchange rate [1] - Japan's Government Pension Investment Fund had a $61.1 - billion loss in Q1, with overseas stocks down 6% and overseas bonds down 2% [1] - Tesla faces sales pressure due to a lack of new models, and Musk shifts focus to autonomous taxis and humanoid robots [1] - OPEC+ eight major members agreed to an 8 - month production increase of 548,000 barrels per day, exceeding the expected 411,000 barrels per day [1] - The Fed is evaluating factors reshaping the US economy and labor market [1] Global Economic Logic - US June non - farm payroll data was much better than expected, and the market anticipates a Fed rate cut in September [1] - US June Markit manufacturing PMI was 52.0, continuing to expand, and China's June PMI production and new order indices also showed expansion [1] - China's crackdown on cut - throat competition boosts listed company performance [1] - The ECB has cut rates 8 times, and Germany's 30% military expansion drives up European manufacturing [1] - China may lead in the "robot race" due to manufacturing and policy advantages [1]

Morning session notice 研究员： 吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情复盘】 | 周四尿素主力合约 | 2509 | 期价上涨 | 7 | 元至 | 1737 | 元/吨，华中主流地区尿素现货价格上 | | | | | | | 涨 | 20 | 至 | 1800 | 元/吨，多头持仓增加 | 1517 | 手至 | 17.34 | 万手，空头持仓增加 | 2269 | 手至 | 19.59 | 万手。 | | 【重要资讯】 | 1、供应方面，尿素行业日产 | 19.86 | 万吨，较上一工作日减少 | 0.12 | 万吨，较去年同 | | | | | | | | | 期增加 | 2.91 | 万吨；开工 | 85.79%，较去年同期 | 78.27%提升 | 7.52% ...