Group 1 - The black building materials sector of steel products is expected to fluctuate [1] Group 2 - Friday, rebar continued to rise, but closed lower at night [1] - The Minister of Industry and Information Technology, Li Lecheng, chaired a party group meeting, emphasizing high - end, intelligent, and green development in manufacturing [1] - This week, the output of five major steel products was 872,720 tons, a weekly decrease of 12,440 tons; the total inventory was 1,339,580 tons, a weekly decrease of 350 tons; consumption decreased by 1.4% [1] - Li Yongjun believes that the key to judging the industrial cycle is demand, and there is still room for per - capita consumption of crude steel in China [1] - Recently, steel mills in Shanxi are restricted in production by 10 - 20%. Last week, rebar production decreased, social inventory decreased, factory inventory increased, and total inventory decreased. Demand shows off - season characteristics [1] - The main pressure level of rebar is 3200, with an important support level at 3000; the support level of hot - rolled coil is 3130, and the pressure level is 3300; the support level of stainless steel is 12600, and the pressure level is 13000 [1] - The spread between spot and futures has widened rapidly. Pay attention to the opportunity of buying spot and selling futures. For single - sided trading, there is a high possibility of a short - term correction. Aggressive investors can try short - selling with a stop - loss set [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the black sector (coking coal and coke) is "oscillating bullish" [1] Group 2: Report's Core View - On Friday, the coking coal main contract Jm2509 closed at 913.0, up 1.78% from the day - session opening; the coke main contract J2509 closed at 1519.5, up 1.50% from the day - session opening. The first round of coke price increase this week is expected to be implemented. With the market news of crude steel production restrictions, downstream finished products are favorable, steel mills have good profits, and there are more bottom - fishing behaviors by traders, so the spot price of coking coal continues to rise. In the short term, there is still an expectation of 1 - 2 rounds of coke price increases, and both coking coal and coke will continue to run bullishly. It is not recommended to short the near - month contract as the spread between near - and far - month contracts is shrinking. Positive arbitrage can be tried, and a unilateral position is advised to wait and see [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Friday, the coking coal main contract Jm2509 closed at 913.0, up 1.78% from the day - session opening; the coke main contract J2509 closed at 1519.5, up 1.50% from the day - session opening [1] Important Information - This week, the output of five major steel products was 872.72 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12.44 million tons; the total inventory of five major steel products was 1339.58 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.35 million tons; the consumption of five major steel products was 873.07 million tons, a decrease of 1.4% [1] - This week, the capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mine samples was 85.5%, a week - on - week increase of 1.7%. The daily average output of raw coal was 1.918 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.8 million tons, and the raw coal inventory was 642.9 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 22.5 million tons [1] - On July 11, the price of top - charged coke in major production areas such as Shanxi and Inner Mongolia increased by up to 95 yuan/ton, and the prices of tamping wet - quenched coke and dry - quenched coke increased by 70 yuan/ton and 75 yuan/ton respectively [1] Market Logic - On Friday night session, both coking coal and coke continued to see significant position - increasing, but the increase was relatively limited. The first round of coke price increase this week will be implemented. With the market news of crude steel production restrictions, downstream finished products are favorable, steel mills have good profits, and there are more bottom - fishing behaviors by traders, so the spot price of coking coal continues to rise. In the short term, there is still an expectation of 1 - 2 rounds of coke price increases, and both coking coal and coke will continue to run bullishly [1] Trading Strategy - The spread between near - and far - month contracts is shrinking. It is not recommended to short the near - month contract. Positive arbitrage can be tried, and a unilateral position is advised to wait and see [1]

Report Overview - The report is issued by Green大华 Futures Research Institute on July 14, 2025, focusing on the morning session notice of precious metals in the non - ferrous and precious metals sector [1] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core View - The prices of gold and silver in the precious metals sector are in a state of oscillation. The price of COMEX gold is expected to range between 3250 - 3480 dollars per ounce, and the domestic Shanghai gold main contract is expected to operate between 750 - 800 yuan per gram. Silver has reached new highs, and after a significant and rapid increase, it may adjust at any time. It is recommended to hold long positions [1] Key Information Summary Market Performance - COMEX gold futures rose 1.34% to 3370.3 dollars per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 4.74% to 39.08 dollars per ounce. At night, the Shanghai gold main contract rose 0.68% to 778.42 yuan per gram, and the Shanghai silver main contract rose 2.38% to 9232 yuan per kilogram [1] ETF Holdings - As of July 11, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF - SPDR Gold Trust decreased by 1.17 tons from the previous day to 947.64 tons. The holdings of the world's largest silver ETF - iShares Silver Trust decreased by 131.41 tons from the previous day to 14758.52 tons [1] CFTC Data - As of the week ending July 8, COMEX gold speculators reduced their net long positions by 1,855 contracts to 134,842 contracts [1] Tariff Policy - On July 12, local time, Trump announced on social media that starting from August 1, 2025, the US will impose a 30% tariff on products imported from Mexico and the EU. On July 9, the US announced a 50% tariff on copper, effective from August 1, 2025 [1] Market Logic - US fiscal deficits and tariff policies have increased inflation concerns. The US dollar index rebounded slightly on July 11 and then fluctuated narrowly horizontally. Gold prices rose on July 11, and silver prices increased significantly [1] Trading Strategy - Gold prices are oscillating, with COMEX gold operating between 3250 - 3480 dollars per ounce and the domestic Shanghai gold main contract operating between 750 - 800 yuan per gram. Silver has reached new highs, and after a significant and rapid increase, it may adjust at any time. It is recommended to hold long positions [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - All varieties (corn, pigs, eggs) are rated as "Range" [1][3] Core Viewpoints - For corn, short - term prices are weak and stable, mid - term prices may rise but with limited upside, and long - term prices are restricted by policies and substitutes, following an import - substitution and planting - cost pricing logic [1] - For pigs, short - term prices will oscillate, mid - term supply may increase, and long - term production capacity will continue to be realized if there is no epidemic [3] - For eggs, short - term prices may confirm a bottom, mid - term prices may rebound during the peak season, and long - term prices may fall if the fourth - quarter supply pressure is realized [3] Summary by Variety Corn - **Market Review**: Overnight corn futures oscillated. The 2509 contract rose 0.04% to 2319 yuan/ton [1] - **Important Information**: Deep - processing enterprise purchase prices were stable with a slight decline; port prices were stable in the north and weak in the south; futures warehouse receipts decreased; wheat - corn spread was 30 yuan/ton; 305,643 tons of imported corn will be auctioned on July 11 [1] - **Market Logic**: Short - term bullish expectations are weak, mid - term supply may tighten, but long - term price increases are restricted [1] - **Trading Strategy**: Long - term range operation; mid - term low - buying; short - term downward pressure, with support for the 2509 contract at 2300 - 2320 [1] Pigs - **Market Review**: The main contracts of pig futures were slightly stronger. The LH2509 contract rose 1.09% to 14375 yuan/ton, and the LH2511 contract rose 0.77% to 13695 yuan/ton [3] - **Important Information**: The national average pig price fell slightly; relevant inventory and price differentials were announced [3] - **Market Logic**: Short - term oscillation, mid - term supply may increase, and long - term production capacity will continue to be realized [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Long - term short - selling; mid - term range operation; short - term strength to test resistance, with pressure for the 2509 contract at 14400 - 14600 and for the 2511 contract at 13800 [3] Eggs - **Market Review**: Egg futures oscillated. The JD2508 contract fell 0.69% to 3446 yuan/500kg, and the JD2509 contract fell 0.2% to 3578 yuan/500kg [3] - **Important Information**: Egg spot prices stopped falling with some small increases; inventory decreased; relevant data on laying hens were announced [3] - **Market Logic**: Short - term prices may confirm a bottom, mid - term prices may rebound, and long - term prices may fall if supply pressure is realized [3] - **Trading Strategy**: The 08 contract has a wide - range operation, with pressure at 3600 - 3650 and support at 3400 - 3450; the 09 contract has a short - selling strategy, with pressure at 3700 - 3720 and support at 3500 - 3550. If the third - quarter culling is less than expected, consider short - selling opportunities for other contracts [3][4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the global economy in the macro and financial sector is (Bullish Bias) [1] Report's Core View - The global economy maintains an upward direction, with positive factors such as the expected meeting between the US Commerce Secretary and Chinese officials, the extension of the "reciprocal tariff" suspension period in the US, strong US non - farm payroll data in June, expected Fed rate cuts in September and acceleration in 2026, expansion in manufacturing PMIs in the US and China, measures to boost corporate performance in China, multiple rate cuts by the European Central Bank, military expansion and industrial recovery in Germany [1] Summary by Related Information Important News - US President Trump issued a second wave of tariff letters to eight countries, with a 50% tariff on Brazil being the highest since the new reciprocal tariffs were announced [1] - The US stock market rebounded strongly led by technology stocks, but the Fear and Greed Index signaled "extreme greed", indicating high market risk sentiment [1] - Morgan Stanley expects no rate cuts in 2025 due to inflation risks and tariffs, while Citi expects a rate - cut cycle to start in September and continue until the policy rate drops to 3 - 3.25% [1] - Baillie Gifford believes the prospects of Chinese tech giants depend more on domestic consumer sentiment than tariff policies, as US - bound exports are less than one - tenth of China's retail sales [1] - The US Treasury auctioned $39 billion of 10 - year Treasury bonds with a winning yield of 4.362%, lower than 4.421% in June [1] - Goldman Sachs found that the probability of the US dollar depreciating when the US stock market falls is more than twice as high as in the past decade, due to factors like US policy uncertainty, global diversified investment, and fiscal risks [1] - Brazilian President Lula called an emergency meeting and warned of a response to any unilateral tariff hikes based on Brazil's economic reciprocity law [1] Global Economic Logic - The US Commerce Secretary is expected to meet Chinese officials in early August, and the US extended the "reciprocal tariff" suspension period to August 1st [1] - US non - farm payroll data in June was significantly better than expected, and the market anticipates Fed rate cuts in September and acceleration in 2026 [1] - The US Markit manufacturing PMI in June was 52.0, continuing to expand, and China's PMI production index continued to expand while the new order index resumed expansion [1] - China's comprehensive rectification of cut - throat competition is expected to boost listed company performance [1] - The European Central Bank has cut rates 8 times, Germany is expanding its military by 30%, and German industry shows signs of recovery with a 1.2% month - on - month increase in industrial output in May [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - On July 10th, the black - series commodities saw a significant increase. The main contract of rebar broke through 3100, reaching a maximum of 3130, and iron ore broke through 750, reaching a maximum of 766. The market is concerned about the risks of a pull - back after a rapid rise. However, due to anti - involution expectations, the downside support of the futures market is relatively strong, and it is not easy to form a downward trend in the short term [8][10] 3. Strategy - For unilateral trading, short - term operations are recommended. Since the basis between spot and futures has widened rapidly, attention should be paid to the opportunity of buying spot and shorting futures [6] 4. Market News - **Crude Steel Production Restriction**: Recently, steel mills in Shanxi have received oral notices for crude steel production restrictions, aiming to achieve a provincial - wide annual crude steel production reduction of nearly 6 million tons. One steel mill has shut down a blast furnace, and the rest of the steel mills are formulating production reduction measures according to the requirements [8] - **Coke Price Hike**: It is rumored that a large coking enterprise will raise the coke price by 50 - 55 yuan per ton next Monday, and the price increase will be implemented on Tuesday [8]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is an EIA crude oil weekly data report released on July 10, 2025, by Green大华 Futures Co., Ltd [1] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - This year, US crude oil daily production is expected to increase by 160,000 barrels to 1.337 million barrels, and production will remain flat in 2026. This forecast is about 50,000 barrels per day lower than the agency's June estimate [1] - Despite the recovery and stabilization of oil prices after falling to multi - year lows due to global demand concerns, the number of active drilling platforms in the US continues to decline and is currently at a near - four - year low [1] - US spot crude oil grades show mixed trends due to increased inventories but expected rising refinery demand [1] Group 4: Data Summary Inventory Data - As of the week ending July 4, the total US crude oil inventory, including strategic reserves, was 829.024 million barrels, an increase of 7.31 million barrels from the previous week; US commercial crude oil inventory was 426.021 million barrels, an increase of 7.07 million barrels; US gasoline inventory was 229.468 million barrels, a decrease of 2.66 million barrels; distillate inventory was 102.797 million barrels, a decrease of 830,000 barrels [1] - Comparing the week of July 4, 2025, with the week of June 27, 2025, US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 1.69% (7,070 thousand barrels), Cushing crude oil inventory increased by 2.24% (464 thousand barrels), US gasoline inventory decreased by 1.15% (- 2,658 thousand barrels), US distillate inventory decreased by 0.80% (- 825 thousand barrels), US total oil product inventory increased by 0.52% (6,411 thousand barrels), US strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased by 0.06% (238 thousand barrels) [2] Production, Import, and Export Data - Comparing the week of July 4, 2025, with the week of June 27, 2025, US crude oil production decreased by 0.36% (- 48 thousand barrels per day), US crude oil imports decreased by 13.09% (- 906 thousand barrels per day), and US crude oil exports increased by 19.61% (452 thousand barrels per day) [2] Refinery Data - The US refinery utilization rate decreased by 0.21% (- 0.2 percentage points) from 94.9% to 94.7% from the week of June 27 to the week of July 4, 2025 [2]

Morning session notice 早盘提示 研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 周三夜盘瓶片主力合约 PR2509 的期货价格上涨 18 元至 5892 元/吨。持仓方面，主 力合约 2509 持仓量为 4.41 万手，持仓+410 手。现货市场方面，华东市场水瓶级瓶 片价格稳定至 5945 元/吨，华南市场水瓶级瓶片价格稳定至 6000 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 35.42 万吨，较上周减少 1.14 万吨。 1、供应和成本利润方面，国内聚酯瓶片产量为 国内聚酯瓶片产能利用率周均值为 77.5%，较上周下降 2.4%；聚酯瓶片生产成本 5725 元，下降 3.1%；聚酯瓶片周生产毛利为-300 元/吨，环比增加 70.9 元/吨。 | | 能源与化 工 | 瓶片 | 震 荡 偏 强 | 2、需求方面，2025 年 5 月中国聚酯瓶片出口 61.9 万吨，较上月增加 3.82 万吨。 2025 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report recommends a long position for all four major stock index futures contracts (IH, IF, IM, IC) and suggests buying out - of - the - money long - term call options on stock indices [1][2][3]. 2. Report's Core View - The market is expected to evolve into a trending upward market. The governance of low - price and disorderly competition among enterprises is likely to boost the performance of listed companies, and international funds are expected to flow into A - shares due to the "de - Americanization" of global financial asset reallocation. Although the Shanghai Composite Index had a short - term pullback, the medium - and long - term outlook is optimistic [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Market Review** - On Wednesday, the major stock indices in the two markets were strong first and then weak. The Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated above 3500 points and declined after 14:00. The innovative drug sector led the gains. The total trading volume of the two markets was 1.50 trillion yuan, with little change. The CSI 1000 Index closed at 6390 points, down 17 points or - 0.27%; the CSI 500 Index closed at 5953 points, down 24 points or - 0.41%; the SSE 50 Index closed at 2739 points, down 7 points or - 0.26%; the SSE 300 Index closed at 3991 points, down 7 points or - 0.18%. The CSI 1000, CSI 500, SSE 300, and SSE 50 index futures saw net outflows of 80, 37, 31, and 4 billion yuan in settled funds respectively [1]. **Important Information** - The Economic Daily stated that breaking "involution" means returning the market to fair competition. When enterprises shift from low - price competition to competing in technology, user understanding, and market creation, they can move up the value chain [1]. - National Development and Reform Commission Director Zheng Shanjie said that during the "14th Five - Year Plan" period, China's GDP continuously exceeded 110, 120, and 130 trillion yuan, and this year's economic volume is expected to reach about 140 trillion yuan [1]. - In June, the consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.1% year - on - year, up from a decline in the previous month, and decreased by 0.1% month - on - month, with a narrower decline than the previous month [1]. - The A - H premium converged, and the Hong Kong stock market showed a valuation premium. Foreign investors still have a large demand for Chinese core assets. As of June 30, the A - H premium in the Shanghai - Shenzhen - Hong Kong market fell below 130%, similar to the level in early 2021 [1]. - Goldman Sachs pointed out that the Chinese software market continued the strong development momentum of AI - native applications in Q2 2025, with intelligent agents, multi - modal AI models, and model deployment as the three core growth engines [1]. - JD Takeaway launched the "Double - Hundred Plan", investing over 10 billion yuan to support more brand products to achieve sales of over one million [1]. - US Commerce Secretary Luttner is expected to meet with Chinese officials in early August to discuss trade issues [1]. - OPEC+ unexpectedly increased production, but oil prices did not fall, indicating that the global oil supply - demand balance is more tense than the surface data shows [2]. - Tether Holdings SA, the world's largest stablecoin issuer, stores about $8 billion worth of gold in a Swiss vault, making it the largest gold holder outside banks and national institutions [2]. - The US Treasury plans to increase the cash reserve in the general account from about $313 billion on July 3 to $500 billion by the end of July and to $85 billion by September [2]. - US President Trump announced a 50% tariff on copper imports, causing the US copper futures price to soar 13% to a record high [2]. - The spread between US junk bonds and Treasury bonds has dropped to a record low of about 2.88 percentage points, indicating strong investor confidence in the economic outlook [2]. **Market Logic** - The major stock indices in the two markets were strong first and then weak on Wednesday. China's economic volume is expected to reach about 140 trillion yuan this year. The A - H premium converged, and foreign investors have a large demand for Chinese core assets. The US imposing tariffs on Japan, South Korea, and Southeast Asia benefits China's exports. Goldman Sachs expects Chinese listed companies to pay a total of 3 trillion yuan in dividends by the end of 2025 [2]. **Outlook for the Future Market** - The market is expected to evolve into a trending upward market. The "de - Americanization" of global financial asset reallocation may accelerate international funds flowing into A - shares. The central government's measures to promote a unified national market and regulate low - price competition are expected to boost the performance of listed companies. The short - term pullback of the Shanghai Composite Index does not affect the medium - and long - term optimism [2]. **Trading Strategies** - For stock index futures directional trading, given the expected improvement in listed company performance and the potential for a trending upward market, it is recommended to be bullish on the four major stock index futures contracts [2]. - For stock index option trading, as the market is expected to turn into a trending upward market, it is recommended to buy long - term out - of - the - money call options on stock indices [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report recommends a long position for IH, IF, IM, IC in the macro and financial and stock index sectors [1]. Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai Composite Index is approaching 3,500 points and is expected to break through. The photovoltaic sector, a flag of anti - involution, led the gains. The market is expected to evolve into a trending upward market, and the Shanghai Composite Index is expected to break through 3,500 points [1][2]. - Anti - involution key industries may include photovoltaic, lithium battery, new energy vehicles, e - commerce platforms, etc. High - Goldman Sachs predicts that Chinese listed companies will pay a total of 3 trillion yuan in dividends by the end of 2025, reaching a record high [1][2]. - Global financial asset re - allocation is "de - Americanized", which is expected to accelerate the inflow of international funds into A - shares. The improvement of the national unified market is expected to boost the performance of listed companies [2]. Summary by Directory Market Review - On Tuesday, the main indices of the two markets opened higher and moved up. The Shanghai Composite Index approached 3,500 points again. The turnover of the two markets was 1.45 trillion yuan, showing increasing volume on the rise. The CSI 1000, CSI 500, CSI 300, and SSE 50 indices all rose, with increases of 1.27%, 1.31%, 0.84%, and 0.57% respectively. Among industry and theme ETFs, photovoltaic ETFs, communication ETFs, etc. led the gains, while green power ETFs, power ETFs, etc. led the losses. The CSI 1000, CSI 500, CSI 300, and SSE 50 index futures had net inflows of 9.8 billion, 4.8 billion, 4.5 billion, and 0.5 billion yuan respectively in the precipitation funds [1]. Important Information - Huachuang Securities believes that key anti - involution industries may include photovoltaic, lithium battery, new energy vehicles, e - commerce platforms, etc., and the anti - involution measures are mainly industry self - regulation, administrative guidance, and public opinion supervision [1]. - Goldman Sachs predicts that by the end of 2025, Chinese on - shore and off - shore listed companies will pay a total of 3 trillion yuan in dividends, and the dividend payout ratio of Chinese listed companies reached 39% last year [1]. - The first batch of 10 science and technology innovation bond ETFs were issued, with a single - product limit of 300 million yuan each, and all 10 products were sold out on the first day [1]. - Google's Omar Shams believes that energy supply is the key constraint for the long - term development of AI, and China's annual new power generation capacity exceeds the sum of the UK and France [1]. - In June 2025, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 2.084 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 18.1% and a month - on - month increase of 7.6%. Passenger car exports were 480,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 23.8% and a month - on - month increase of 7.3%. The production of new energy passenger cars reached 1.2 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 28.3% and a month - on - month increase of 2.0% [1]. - Analysts expect the profit growth rate of US stocks in the second quarter to slow down significantly from 12% in the first quarter to 4%. The impact of tariffs has become a market focus [1]. Market Logic - The main indices of the two markets opened higher and moved up on Tuesday, and the anti - involution photovoltaic sector led the gains. The US postponed the implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" from July 9 to August 1. The US will impose reciprocal tariffs on 14 countries from August 1, 2025, which is beneficial to China's exports. Goldman Sachs predicts that Chinese listed companies will pay a record - high 3 trillion yuan in dividends by the end of 2025 [1][2]. Future Outlook - The main indices of the two markets opened higher and moved up on Tuesday, and the anti - involution photovoltaic sector led the gains. The global financial asset re - allocation is "de - Americanized", which is expected to accelerate the inflow of international funds into A - shares. The improvement of the national unified market is expected to boost the performance of listed companies, and the market is expected to evolve into a trending upward market. The Shanghai Composite Index is expected to break through 3,500 points [2]. Trading Strategy - For futures direction trading, it is recommended to be bullish on the four major stock index futures contracts as the market is expected to evolve into a trending upward market and the Shanghai Composite Index is expected to break through 3,500 points [2]. - For stock index option trading, it is recommended to buy long - term deep - out - of - the - money call options on stock indices as the market is expected to evolve into a trending upward market [2].