Report Industry Investment Rating - The global economy is rated as (turning weak) [1] Core Viewpoints - The global economy is turning weak as the US makes a series of wrong policies and returns to the Monroe Doctrine, which will have a profound and subversive impact on major asset classes [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Important Information - Precious metals soar, with spot gold above 4400, silver hitting a new high, and platinum breaking the $2000 mark for the first time in 16 years due to the Fed's rate - cut expectations and geopolitical risks [1] - Wall Street expects high volatility in US stocks in 2026, and suggests a hedging strategy of going long on the Nasdaq 100 index volatility and short on the S&P 500 index volatility [1] - Dalio warns that the current market wealth based on unfulfilled expectations may lead to market adjustments or crises when converted to money [1] - The shipment of NVIDIA's GB300 AI server cabinets is expected to reach 55,000 units next year, a 129% year - on - year increase, driven by tech giants, and the next - generation Vera Rubin 200 platform will start shipping in Q4 next year [1] - The AI data center construction boom attracts various players, but there are concerns about AI bubbles due to project delays and contract terminations [1] - The US is promoting large - scale space militarization, with a $3.5 billion military satellite order issued [1] - Musk's net worth soars to $749 billion, becoming the first person to exceed $700 billion, due to a court decision on Tesla stock options [1] - The "stable return" myth for retail investors on Wall Street is broken, with BDC stocks of top institutions plummeting and bad loan rates rising [1] Global Economic Logic - Israel's potential attack on Iran causes gold prices to hit new highs, and the Fed cuts rates by 25 basis points in December and buys $40 billion in short - term bonds monthly [2] - Trump wants the next Fed chair to believe in "substantial rate cuts", and some traders are betting on a Q1 rate cut [2] - Goldman Sachs warns that the decline in Las Vegas gambling revenue is similar to the 2008 financial crisis warning [2] - The US releases a new National Security Strategy, adjusting economic relations with China to revive its economic autonomy [2] - The Fed's Beige Book shows a K - shaped consumer divide in the US, with high - income spending remaining resilient and low - income tightening belts [2] - The Bank of Japan raises rates by 25 basis points, and the 10 - year Japanese government bond yield rises to 2.0% [2] - Google aims to double AI computing power every 6 months and achieve a 1000 - fold increase in 4 - 5 years [2] - NVIDIA's Huang Renxun believes China will win the AI race due to regulatory and energy cost advantages [2] - JPMorgan estimates that AI data center construction will require at least $5 trillion in the next five years [2] - The US unemployment rate rises to 4.6%, raising concerns about large - scale corporate layoffs as an economic warning [2]

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 23 日星期二 研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情复盘】 | 周一夜盘主力合约 | 2605 | 期货价格上涨 | 8 | 元至 | 2162 | 元/吨，华东主流地区甲醇现货价 | | | | | | | | | 格下跌 | 4 | 元至 | 2138 | 元/吨。持仓方面，多头持仓减少 | 25284 | 手至 | 51.9 | 万手，空头持 | 仓减少 | 16783 | 手至 | 63.5 | 万手。 | | | 【重要资讯】 | 1、供应方面，国内甲醇开工率 | 90.5%，环比+0.9%。海外甲醇开工 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 23 日星期二 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 联系方式：0371-65617380 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 昨日夜盘玉米期货窄幅震荡，截至夜盘收盘2603合约跌幅0.36%，收于2190元/吨。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、中国粮油商务网数据显示，昨日深加工企业收购价小幅上调。东北地区企业收购 | | | | | 均价2123元/吨，较上周五涨4元/吨；华北地区企业收购均价2281元/吨，较上周五 | | | | | 涨1元/吨。 | | | | | 2、中国粮油商务网数据显示，昨日南北港口价格弱稳为主。锦州港15%水二等玉米 | | | | | 收购价2240-2245元/吨，较上周五跌5元/吨；蛇口港散粮成交价2400元/吨，较上周 | | | | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pure benzene in the energy and chemical industry is "Oscillating Bullish" [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of the main futures contract BZ2603 rose by 60 yuan to 5483 yuan/ton on Monday night, and the spot prices in East China and Shandong increased. The long - position decreased by 50 lots to 16,700 lots, and the short - position increased by 4 to 18,800 lots. The short - term price of pure benzene is expected to oscillate strongly, with the 03 contract reference range of 5420 - 5530 yuan/ton. Traders are advised to hold long positions [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - The price of the main futures contract BZ2603 rose by 60 yuan to 5483 yuan/ton on Monday night. The spot price in East China was 5325 yuan/ton (up 40 yuan from the previous period), and in Shandong, it was 5156 yuan/ton (up 24 yuan from the previous period). The long - position decreased by 50 lots to 16,700 lots, and the short - position increased by 4 to 18,800 lots [1] Important Information - **Supply**: In November 2025, the domestic pure benzene output was 1.918 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.93%. There were many planned overhauls in December. In October, the import volume was 496,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.1%. A refinery in East China plans to overhaul a 10 - million - ton atmospheric and vacuum distillation unit and a reforming unit in January 2026, affecting a pure benzene production capacity of 600,000 tons. In November 2025, the monthly import volume was 459,624.998 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.48% but a year - on - year increase of 5.93%. The cumulative import volume increased by 33.61% compared to the same period last year [1] - **Inventory**: As of December 22, 2025, the total commercial inventory of pure benzene at Chinese ports was 293,000 tons, a 13,000 - ton increase (4.6% month - on - month) from the previous period. From December 15th to 21st, the estimated arrival was about 33,000 tons, and the pick - up was about 20,000 tons [1] - **Demand**: The styrene operating rate was 69.1% (up 1% month - on - month), the phenol operating rate was 75% (down 4% month - on - month), the caprolactam operating rate was 74.1% (down 0.4% month - on - month), the aniline operating rate was 61.3% (down 14.6% month - on - month), and the adipic acid operating rate was 59.6% (up 0.4% month - on - month). Caprolactam factories started to cut production voluntarily, and there was an expected reduction in monthly pure benzene demand from December 2025 to January 2026. The second production line of Guangxi Hengyi's caprolactam project was put into operation [1] - **International Oil Prices**: Due to concerns about the escalation of the US - Venezuela situation, international oil prices rose. The NYMEX crude oil futures 02 contract rose 1.49 dollars to 58.01 dollars/barrel (a 2.64% month - on - month increase), the ICE Brent crude oil futures 02 contract rose 1.60 dollars to 62.07 dollars/barrel (a 2.65% month - on - month increase). The China INE crude oil futures 2602 contract rose 5.2 to 432.6 yuan/ton and 8.7 to 441.3 yuan/ton in night trading [1] - **US Economic Data**: The US November CPI increased by 2.7% year - on - year, lower than market expectations. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in January 2026 rose from 26.6% to 28.8%, and traders bet that the Fed would cut interest rates by 62 basis points next year [1] Market Logic - The opening of the Asia - America regional arbitrage window may ease future port arrival pressure. Crude oil rebounded from a low this week. The pure benzene port inventory increased slightly but at a slower pace, and the downstream operating rate on the demand side declined. The transaction prices in East China and Shandong rebounded yesterday. The short - term price of pure benzene is expected to oscillate strongly. Future attention should be paid to port arrival volume and the future US - dollar - denominated pure benzene market transaction price [1] Trading Strategy - Hold long positions [1]

研究员： 吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周一尿素主力合约 2605 价格 1698 元/吨，华中主流地区现货价格上涨 10 元至 1690 元/吨。持仓方面，多头持仓增加 868 手至 16.35 万手，空头持仓增加 1915 手至 17.88 万手。 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 能源与化 | | 少 70 | 【重要资讯】 1、供应方面，尿素行业日产 19.18 万吨，较上一工日减少 0.32 万吨；较去年同期 增加 1.3 万吨；今日开工率 79.32%，较去年同期 79.11%上涨 0.21%。 2、库存方面，中国尿素企业总库存量 117.97 万吨，较上周减少 5.45 万吨，环比减 4.42%。尿素港口样本库存量 13.8 万吨，环比+1.5 万吨。 3、需求方面，复合肥开工率 39.3%，环比-1.25%，三聚氰胺开工率 58.5%，环比-3.3%。 4、印度 NFL 发布新一轮尿素进口招标，意向采购 150 万吨（西海岸 80 万吨 ...

早盘提示 Morning session notice 重要事项: 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 格林大华期货研究院所有 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 23 日星期二 研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Monday, the major stock indices in the two markets rose collectively, with growth - style indices led by the ChiNext Index performing strongly, and the semiconductor equipment sector leading the gains. The total turnover of the two markets reached 1.86 trillion yuan, showing a mild increase in volume [1]. - As of December 19, the total scale of all - market listed ETFs reached 5.83 trillion yuan, a year - to - date increase of 2.09 trillion yuan, a significant increase of 56%. ETFs have become an important channel for attracting household wealth [1][2]. - Global funds are re - increasing their positions in the Chinese stock market. The Chinese technology sector is becoming a new battlefield for global funds to deploy in AI due to its valuation advantages, complete industrial ecosystem, and large - scale manufacturing capabilities [2][3]. - In 2026, the risk of a sharp rise in the Chinese stock market is much higher than that of a sharp decline, with multiple positive factors such as the acceleration of AI applications and the re - allocation of domestic liquidity from deposits to the stock market [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Monday, the major indices of the two markets rose. The CSI 300 Index closed at 4,611 points, up 43 points or 0.95%; the SSE 50 Index closed at 3,020 points, up 15 points or 0.53%; the CSI 500 Index closed at 7,255 points, up 86 points or 1.20%; and the CSI 1000 Index closed at 7,408 points, up 78 points or 1.07% [1]. - Among industry and thematic ETFs, semiconductor equipment ETFs, communication ETFs, etc. led the gains, while film and television ETFs, bank ETFs, etc. led the losses. Among the sector indices of the two markets, Hainan Free Trade, communication equipment, etc. led the gains, while forestry, film and television theaters, etc. led the losses. The CSI 500 Index futures saw a net inflow of 1.9 billion yuan in settled funds [1]. 3.2 Important Information - The People's Bank of China will implement a one - time credit repair policy. For individual overdue information with a single amount not exceeding 10,000 yuan from 2020 to 2025, if the individual fully repays the overdue debt by March 31, 2026 (inclusive), the financial credit information database will not display it [1]. - Precious metals soared. Spot gold reached over 4,400, silver hit a new record high, and platinum broke through the $2,000 mark for the first time in 16 years, driven by the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and geopolitical risks [1]. - In November, the domestic new - energy heavy - truck market sold 28,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 178%, and the sales volume in the first three quarters increased by 184% year - on - year. New - energy heavy trucks have a significant cost advantage in short - and medium - distance freight [1]. - Wall Street expects high volatility in the U.S. stock market in 2026. Some institutions suggest a hedging strategy of going long on the Nasdaq 100 Index volatility and shorting the S&P 500 Index volatility [2]. - The expected shipment of NVIDIA's GB300 AI server cabinets in 2026 is 55,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 129%, driven by tech giants like Microsoft and Meta [2]. - OpenAI's "computing profit margin" soared from about 35% to 70% in less than two years, indicating significant progress in controlling AI model operating costs [2]. - The U.S. is promoting the largest - scale space militarization deployment since the Cold War, with the Pentagon awarding military satellite orders worth $3.5 billion [2]. - Elon Musk's personal net worth soared to $749 billion, becoming the first person in human history to exceed $700 billion, due to a court decision restoring Tesla stock options [2]. - The so - called "stable returns" promised by Wall Street to retail investors are collapsing, with BDC stocks of top institutions like KKR and BlackRock plummeting and non - performing loan rates rising [2]. 3.3 Market Logic - The growth of the Chinese stock market and the expansion of ETF scale are attracting global investors. China's technological breakthroughs in AI and its resilience in the face of external pressure are restoring global investors' confidence in China's long - term growth [2]. - In 2025, the stock market had a net inflow of 2.26 trillion yuan. In 2026, insurance, wealth management, and pensions are expected to be the three major sources of incremental funds, with institutional incremental funds reaching 3.1 trillion yuan, and the scale of public fixed - income + products is expected to at least double [2]. 3.4 Market Outlook - It is expected that the market will remain in a sideways - oscillating state. Global funds are re - increasing their positions in the Chinese stock market, with the Chinese technology sector becoming an important target for AI investment. Geopolitical risks need to be closely monitored, and investors should gradually start spring - market layout [3]. 3.5 Trading Strategies - For stock - index futures directional trading, observe the market and gradually start spring - market layout, while closely monitoring the impact of geopolitical risks [3]. - For stock - index option trading, do not participate in stock - index call options for the time being as the market is expected to be in a sideways - oscillating state [3].

Group 1: Core View - The customs clearance vehicles at the Ganqimao Port for Mongolian coal have been operating at a high level. As of December 20, the average daily customs clearance vehicles in December were 1,472, a 9.1% increase from the average daily vehicles of 1,349 in November, and it is at the highest monthly average customs clearance level of the year [3] Group 2: Data Summary - The document shows the daily customs clearance data of Ganqimao Port on December 22 [1] - The document presents the weekly inventory data of Mongolian coal in the Ganqimao supervision area in tons, with values ranging from 150,000 to 500,000 tons [2] - The document provides the production data from September 6, 2025, to December 20, 2025, including the production volume and its month - on - month changes [5]

Group 1: Core View - The customs clearance vehicles at the Ganqimao Port for Mongolian coal have been operating at a high level. As of December 20, the average daily customs clearance vehicles in December were 1,472, a 9.1% increase from the average daily vehicles in November (1,349), and it is at the highest monthly average customs clearance level of the year [3] Group 2: Data Presentation - As of December 22, it shows the VIP customer data - daily customs clearance data of Ganqimao Port [1] - The weekly inventory data of Mongolian coal in the Ganqimao supervision area is presented in a graph with inventory levels from 150,000 tons to 500,000 tons [2] - A table shows the production data from September 6, 2025, to December 20, 2025, including production volume and month - on - month changes [5]

期货研究院 格林大华期货研究院专题报告 能源化工 2025年12月22日 能源化工研究员： 王琛 从业资格证号： F03104620 交易咨询证号： Z0021310 证监许可【2011】1288号 江西碳酸锂调研纪要（二） 联系方式： wangchen@greendh.com 格林大华期货交易咨询业务资格： 调研背景：近期碳酸锂行业面临反内卷、采矿权及环保 整治、储能需求超预期等因素驱动，期现货波动幅度较大， 市场对其关注度较高。江西省为国内碳酸锂主产地之一,省内 产业园区众多，内部企业动态对整个市场影响颇大，本次调 研主要围绕江西地区碳酸锂企业进行走访，力图对当下的碳 酸锂行情有更真实、深入的了解。 调研时间：2025 年 12 月 15 日-19 日 成文时间：2025年12月22日星期一 调研总结：调研企业大多维持较高开工率，没有原料渠 道优势的企业开工或受制于原料采购。企业多已提前规划原 料供应与生产调度，计划若行情持续乐观，春节期间维持生 产。 销售方面，贸易点价形式销售能够同时为企业缓解资金 周转压力和规避价格波动风险，企业可随产随销，仅留有较 低水平库存。 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微 ...