1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main indices of the two markets oscillated and consolidated on Thursday, with growth - style indices adjusting. Global investors are regaining confidence in China's long - term growth due to China's technological breakthroughs and cost advantages in AI and other fields, as well as its resilience in the face of external pressures [1][2][3]. - In 2026, the A - share market's valuation is expected to rise further due to factors such as incremental macro - policies, a decline in the risk - free interest rate, the continuous transfer of household savings to the stock market, and the continuous net inflow of long - term funds [3]. - The US's return to the Monroe Doctrine will accelerate the flow of global funds to China's capital market. The risk of a significant rise in China's stock market in 2026 is much higher than that of a significant decline [3]. - The market is expected to enter a sideways oscillation phase, waiting for new opportunities. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Thursday, the main indices of the two markets oscillated and consolidated, with growth - style indices adjusting. The satellite and aerospace sectors led the gains. The trading volume in the two markets was 1.65 trillion yuan, showing a volume contraction during the adjustment. The CSI 300 index closed at 4552 points, down 27 points or - 0.59%; the SSE 50 index closed at 2998 points, up 6 points or 0.23%; the CSI 500 index closed at 7100 points, down 36 points or - 0.52%; the CSI 1000 index closed at 7272 points, down 16 points or - 0.22% [1]. - Among industry and thematic ETFs, satellite ETFs, general aviation ETF funds, CSI bank ETFs, coal ETFs, and aerospace ETFs led the gains, while battery ETFs, Gem new energy ETFs (Guotai), and 5G 50 ETFs led the losses. Among the sector indices of the two markets, forestry, pharmaceutical commerce, aerospace equipment, coal mining, and small and medium - sized bank indices led the gains, while component, consumer electronics, battery, glass fiber, and power grid equipment indices led the losses [1]. - The margin funds in the stock index futures of the CSI 1000, CSI 500, CSI 300, and SSE 50 indices had net outflows of 6.6 billion, 3.2 billion, 3.0 billion, and 1.6 billion yuan respectively [1]. 3.2 Important Information - A relevant official from the Central Financial Office stated that the growth rates of investment and consumption are expected to recover next year, industrial transformation and upgrading will accelerate, and the concentration of scientific and technological and industrial innovation achievements will enter a stage of concentrated explosion. Through the linkage of investment and consumption and the coordination between the government and the market, there are fully conditions to promote the continuous growth of domestic demand next year [1]. - BofA Merrill Lynch analyst Winnie Wu said that her view of the Chinese market has changed significantly. China's technological breakthroughs and cost advantages in AI and other fields, as well as its resilience in the face of external pressures, are regaining global investors' confidence in China's long - term growth [1][2]. - The World Platinum Investment Council's (WPIC) research director Edward Sterck said that the global platinum market will face a third consecutive year of supply shortage in 2025, with an expected shortage of 850,000 ounces. In general, the platinum market supply is expected to remain in the range of 7.2 to 7.3 million ounces in the next few years, with limited growth space [1]. - Trump clearly stated that the next Federal Reserve Chairman must be someone who believes in "substantial interest rate cuts", and "mortgage loan interest rates will further decline". He believes that the next Federal Reserve Chairman should consult with him on interest rate setting [1]. - The focus of the Bank of Japan has shifted to the subsequent policy path. It needs to carefully balance multiple goals: retaining policy space by suggesting that interest rates are still below the neutral level (1% - 2.5%), avoiding overly hawkish communication that may push up government bond yields or overly dovish communication that may lead to excessive depreciation of the yen, and coordinating with the government that tends to stimulate the economy [1]. - Humanoid robots are accelerating their entry into factories. Guotai Haitong Securities pointed out that handling and quality inspection are the preferred commercialization paths, and the core bottleneck lies in the return on investment. To achieve a two - year payback period, the robot's selling price needs to be reduced to the level of 100,000 yuan. The market space for China's industrial scenarios is expected to exceed 48 billion yuan in 2035 [2]. - Amazon announced the reorganization of its artificial intelligence - related teams and the establishment of a new business unit, aiming to create a cutting - edge, multi - purpose artificial intelligence tool similar to ChatGPT [2]. - BofA said that with its low data cost and large and young Internet population, India has become the world's most active and highest - penetration AI consumer market. Telecom giants are accelerating penetration through free AI subscriptions, making India a key test field for technology companies to test "proxy AI", but local start - ups face greater competitive pressure [2]. - The "Trump Account" plan proposes to provide $1000 for newborns to invest in US stocks to accumulate wealth. Based on the S&P index's average annual growth rate of 10.5%, this fund may increase to about $5800 when the child is 18 years old and may reach about $600,000 at retirement; if the family makes additional annual investments, the account value may exceed $300,000 at 18 [2]. - Hedge fund giant Point72 is considering entering the commodity trading business. Geopolitical turmoil, extreme weather, and Trump's trade policies have caused fluctuations in assets such as energy, metals, coffee, and oil, driving multi - strategy funds to invest billions of dollars in the commodity market [2]. - PJM, which operates the power grid covering 13 states and serving nearly one - fifth of the US population, said that its latest auction to ensure power supply will cost consumers $16.4 billion. The results announced this week show that the average daily cost of these power supplies has risen from $329.17 per megawatt to $333.44 [2]. - Blockchain data shows that early Bitcoin holders are cashing out at the fastest pace in recent years. The past 30 days have been one of the most intense selling periods for long - term holders in more than five years. Previously, this selling was mostly absorbed by newly launched ETF funds and institutional demand, but now this demand has subsided [2]. - Oracle's stock price has fallen to its lowest point since mid - June (below the 200 - day moving average), down 45% from its peak, the largest decline since August 2011, and its CDS has expanded to the level of the global financial crisis. It has become a representative of negative sentiment towards AI [2]. 3.3 Market Logic - On Thursday, the main indices of the two markets oscillated and consolidated, with growth - style indices adjusting. Global investors are regaining confidence in China's long - term growth due to China's technological breakthroughs and cost advantages in AI and other fields, as well as its resilience in the face of external pressures. The National Council for Social Security Fund held a Party group meeting to scientifically and effectively carry out asset allocation and steadily invest in various types of assets, actively serving national development needs and better supporting the in - depth integration of scientific and technological innovation and industrial innovation [1][2][3]. - Zhongtai Securities said that the stock market had a net inflow of 2.26 trillion yuan in 2025. In 2026, insurance, wealth management, and pensions will be the three major sources of incremental funds. The incremental funds from institutions in the stock market in 2026 will reach 3.1 trillion yuan, and the scale of public fixed - income + products will at least double compared with this year [2]. - More and more international funds are turning their attention to AI tracks outside the United States. China's technology sector, with its significant valuation advantages, complete industrial ecosystem, and irreplaceable large - scale manufacturing capabilities, is gradually becoming a "new battlefield" for global funds to deploy in AI [2][3]. - UBS Securities' China equity strategy analyst pointed out that in 2026, factors such as incremental macro - policies, a decline in the risk - free interest rate, the continuous transfer of household savings to the stock market, and the continuous net inflow of long - term funds will jointly promote the further increase of the A - share market's valuation [3]. 3.4 Market Outlook - The main indices of the two markets oscillated and consolidated on Thursday, with growth - style indices adjusting. The National Council for Social Security Fund held a Party group meeting to scientifically and effectively carry out asset allocation. Global funds are increasing their investment in China's stock market again. The AI strength, valuation attractiveness, and resilience of China have become a consensus. Foreign capital has shifted from passive inflows to expecting the return of active funds. China's technology sector is becoming a "new battlefield" for global funds to deploy in AI [1][3]. - JPMorgan Chase believes that the risk of a significant rise in China's stock market in 2026 is much higher than that of a significant decline, and it is optimistic about multiple positive factors in the Chinese market, including the acceleration of AI applications, anti - involution, and the re - allocation of domestic liquidity from deposits to the stock market [3]. - Google's AI infrastructure director said that the company must double its AI computing power every six months and achieve an additional 1000 - fold increase in the next 4 to 5 years to meet the continuously rising demand for AI services [3]. - The US's return to the Monroe Doctrine will accelerate the flow of global funds to China's capital market. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points and bought $40 billion of short - term bonds per month, restarting the expansion of its balance sheet. The main funds showed obvious actions to support the market at the 3800 - point line of the Shanghai Composite Index to prevent the technical indicators from deteriorating. Some institutions have begun to make early spring layouts. The market is expected to enter a sideways oscillation phase, waiting for new opportunities [1][3]. 3.5 Trading Strategies - Stock index futures directional trading: The main indices of the two markets oscillated and consolidated on Thursday, with growth - style indices adjusting. The main funds showed obvious actions to support the market at the 3800 - point line of the Shanghai Composite Index. Some institutions have begun to make early spring layouts. The market is expected to enter a sideways oscillation phase, waiting for new opportunities [1][3]. - Stock index options trading: The market is expected to enter a sideways oscillation phase, so it is advisable not to participate in stock index call options for the time being [3].

Report Summary 1. Core View - The recent sharp rise in lithium carbonate prices is due to two reasons: the market's expectation of supply contraction has increased after Jiangte Motor's announcement of the proposed cancellation of mining rights, and the previous day's market rumor that the resumption of production at Shixiaowo has encountered obstacles again, leading to the failure of the supply release expectation. The main contract closed at 108,620 yuan/ton, with a gain of 7.61%. It is expected that lithium carbonate will experience a correction after short - term high - level fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the resistance level of 115,000 yuan/ton [6]. 2. Specific Information Mining Rights Cancellation - On December 17, 2025, Jiangte Motor announced that the Yichun Natural Resources Bureau website recently released a notice to cancel 27 mining rights, including its Jiangxi Yifeng County Shiziling Mining Area lithium - bearing porcelain stone mine. Among the 27 mining licenses, 17 are for ceramic clay mines, 7 are for limestone, and others include kaolin and quartzite. The expiration of these licenses has little impact on the lithium carbonate market supply, and previous similar announcements in Yichun have not significantly affected the market [5]. Price Fluctuation Reasons - The sharp rise in lithium carbonate prices after the announcement is due to market sentiment being affected by Jiangte's announcement and media reports, which increased the expectation of supply contraction, and the previous day's rumor of production resumption obstacles at Shixiaowo, which also contributed to the price increase [6]. Market Outlook - As the lc2601 contract is about to enter the delivery month, the short - term market is expected to experience high - level fluctuations followed by a correction. Attention should be paid to the resistance level of 115,000 yuan/ton. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange has issued a market risk warning, and attention should also be paid to the weekly inventory data released on Thursday. If the de - stocking speed slows down or fails to meet expectations, market sentiment may decline [6][7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The recent sharp rise in lithium carbonate prices is due to the market's increased expectation of supply contraction after Jiangte Motor's announcement of the proposed cancellation of mining rights and the disappointment of supply release expectations caused by the rumored resumption delay at Shixiawo. The main contract closed at 108,620 yuan/ton, up 7.61%. It is expected that lithium carbonate will experience a callback after short - term high - level fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the resistance level of 115,000 yuan/ton. Also, be aware of policy risks from the exchange, weekly inventory data, and the risk of a sharp fall due to concentrated liquidation [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Market News - The supply situation of lithium carbonate is still uncertain, and there is a need to be vigilant about policy cooling while the market sentiment is high [1]. Company Announcement - On December 17, 2025, Jiangte Motor announced that Yichun Natural Resources Bureau planned to cancel 27 mining rights, including its Yifeng County Lion Ridge lithium - bearing porcelain stone mine. The expiration of these 27 mining licenses has little actual impact on the lithium carbonate market supply [5]. Market Analysis - The sharp rise in lithium carbonate prices is caused by the market's expectation of supply contraction and the disappointment of supply release expectations. The main contract closed at 108,620 yuan/ton, up 7.61%. It is expected to experience a callback after short - term high - level fluctuations, with the resistance level of 115,000 yuan/ton [6]. Risk Warnings and Suggestions - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange issued a market risk warning. Attention should be paid to policy risks of margin adjustment and position limit by the exchange in case of continuous sharp rise. Also, pay attention to the weekly inventory data on Thursday, as a slower - than - expected de - stocking speed may lead to a decline in market sentiment. Be vigilant against the risk of a sharp fall due to concentrated liquidation [7].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a bullish rating for gold and silver in the non-ferrous and precious metals sector [1] 2) Core Viewpoints - Precious metals are short - term strong, and long - position holders should continue to hold [1] 3) Summary by Related Content Market Performance - COMEX gold futures rose 0.90% to $4371.40 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 4.92% to $66.44 per ounce. Shanghai gold closed up 0.53% at 982.48 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver rose 3.93% to 15,594 yuan per kilogram [1] Important Information - As of December 17, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, increased by 0.86 tons to 1052.54 tons. The holdings of the world's largest silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust, remained unchanged at 16018.29 tons [1] - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January next year is 24.4%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 75.6%. By March next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 44.4%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 46%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 9.5% [1] - The eurozone's November CPI increased 2.1% year - on - year (expected 2.2%, previous value 2.1%); November CPI decreased 0.3% month - on - month (expected 0.3% decrease) [1] - US media reported that the US and Russia will hold talks on the Russia - Ukraine conflict in Miami this weekend [1] Market Logic - The seasonally adjusted non - farm payrolls in the US increased by 64,000 in November, higher than expected. In October, non - farm employment decreased by 105,000 month - on - month (market expected a decrease of 25,000). The US unemployment rate in November was 4.6%, the highest in four years. After the release of the non - farm data, the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in January next year changed little [1] - On December 17, the US dollar index rose and then fell, finally closing up 0.18% at 98.40. The silver inventory of the Shanghai Gold Exchange has been falling for the past three months, and the COMEX silver inventory has been decreasing since October. Tight silver supply has driven silver prices to rise continuously. On December 17, COMEX gold rose slightly, and COMEX silver rose sharply to a new high [1] Trading Strategy - Precious metals are short - term strong, and long - position holders should continue to hold [1]

Morning session notice 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情复盘】 | 周三夜盘主力合约 | 2605 | 期货价格上涨 | 28 | 元至 | 2172 | 元/吨，华东主流地区甲醇现货 | | | | | | | | 价格上涨 | 27 | 元至 | 2130 | 元/吨。持仓方面，多头持仓减少 | 10697 | 手至 | 54.7 | 万手，空 | 头持仓减少 | 14518 | 手至 | 64.59 | 万手。 | | 【重要资讯】 | 1、供应方面，国内甲醇开工率 | 89.8%，环比+0.8%。海外甲醇开工率 | 62%，环比-1.8%。 | | | | | | | | | | | | 2、库存方面，中国甲醇港口库存总量在 | 121.88 | 万吨，较上一期数据减少 | 1.56 | 万吨。 | 其中，华 ...

| 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 周三国债期货主力合约全线高开，早盘震荡上行，午后横向波动，截至收盘 30 年 期国债期货主力合约 TL2603 上涨 0.63%，10 年期 T2603 上涨 0.10%，5 年期 TF2603 | | | | | 上涨 0.06%，2 年期 TS2603 上涨 0.01%。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、公开市场：周三央行开展了 468 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，当天有 1898 亿元逆回 | | | | | 购到期，当日合计净回笼 1430 亿元。 | | | | | 2、资金市场：周三银行间资金市场隔夜利率维持低位，DR001 全天加权平均为 | | | | | 1.27%，上一交易日加权平均 1.27%；DR007 全天加权平均为 1.44%，上一交易日加 | | | | | 权平均 1.45%。 | | | | | 3、现券市场：周三银行间国债现券收盘收益率较上一交易日下行，2 年期国债到期 | | | | TL、T、 | 收益率下行 0. ...

早盘提示 Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 18 日 星期四 联系方式：yujunli@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 周三两市主要指数早盘震荡整理，午后快速拉升，技术形态明显修复。两市成交额 1.81 万亿元，稍有放大。沪深 300 指数收 4579 点，涨 82 点，涨幅 1.83%；上证 50 | | | | | 指数收 2991 点，涨 36 点，涨幅 1.25%；中证 500 指数收 7137 点，涨 136 点，涨幅 | | | | | 1.95%；中证 1000 指数收 7288 点，涨 107 点，涨幅 1.49%。行业与主题 ETF 中涨幅 | | | | | 居前的是通信 ETF、创业板人工智能 ETF 南方、通信设备 ETF、5G ETF、稀有金属 | | | | | ETF，跌幅居前的是航空航天 ETF、通用航空 ETF、卫星 ETF ...

重要事项: 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 17 日星期三 研究员：纪晓云 从业资格：F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 昨日焦煤主力合约 Jm2605 收于 1067.5，环比日盘开盘上涨 0.61%；焦炭主力合约 J2601 | | | | | 收于 1514.5，环比日盘开盘上涨 0.73%。昨日夜盘，Jm2605 收于 1061.0，环比日盘收 | | | | | 盘下跌 0.61%；J2601 合约收于 1517.0，环比日盘收盘上涨 0.17%。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、明年要采取更具针对性的措施，进一步增强统一大市场的建设成效，实现各类资源 | | | | | 要素高效配置。市场层面，要持续完善市场运行规则。政府层面，要持续规范地方政府 | | | | | 经济促进行为。企业层面，要深入整治"内卷式"竞争。 | | | | | 2、明年 ...

| 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情复盘】 | 周二尿素主力合约 | 2601 | 价格 | 1630 | 元/吨，华中主流地区现货价格 | 1670 | 元/吨。持仓 | | | | | | | | | | | | 方面，多头持仓增加 | 234 | 手至 | 17.86 | 万手，空头持仓增加 | 4367 | 手至 | 19.34 | 万手。 | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | | | | | | 1、供应方面，尿素行业日产 | 20.03 | 万吨，较上一工作日-0.27 | 万吨；较去年同期增 | 加 | 1.18 | 万吨；今日开工率 | 82.82%，较去年同期 | 83.38%下降升 | 0.56%。 | | | | | | | | | | 2、库存方面，中国尿素企业总库存量 | 123.42 ...

格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 17 日 星期三 研究员： 于军礼 从业资格： F0247894 交易咨询资格：Z0000112 Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 联系方式：yujunli@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、美国政府将经济复苏押注 AI 生产力提升，以解决联邦债务。知名投资机构警告， | | | | 若 | AI 未能兑现承诺，美国将陷入深度衰退和主权债务危机，其破坏性远超 2008 年 | | | | | 金融危机。因政府作为最后买家自身陷入困境，整个金融体系将失去安全网。 | | | | | 2、债券期权市场的仓位正在发生变化，部分交易员开始布局，押注市场情绪可能 | | | | | 转向预期第一季度就会降息。目前市场定价显示，下一次降息要到明年年中才会被 | | | | | 完全计入，第二次降息则预期在 10 月。 | | | | | 3、哈塞特势头不稳， ...