Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 07 月 04 日星期五 研究员： 张晓君 从业资格：F0242716 交易咨询资格：Z0011864 联系方式：0371-65617380 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 连盘玉米期货：隔夜夜盘玉米期货震荡整理，截止夜盘收盘2509合约跌幅0.08%，收 | | | | | 于2362元/吨。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、中国粮油商务网数据显示，昨日南北港口价格稳定。鲅鱼圈（容重680-730/15% | | | | | 水）收购价2320-2340元/吨，较前一日稳定；锦州港（15%水/容重680-720）收购价 | | | | | 2320-2340元/吨，较前一日稳定；蛇口港散粮玉米成交价2470元/吨，较前一日稳定 | | | | | 。 | | | | | 2、中国粮油商务网数据显示昨日 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 截至 07 月 03 日： | | | | | RU2509 合约收盘价为 14015 元/吨，日跌幅 0.78%。 | | | | | NR2508 合约收盘价为 12125 元/吨，日跌幅 1.22%。 | | | | | BR2508 合约收盘价为 11185 元/吨，日跌幅 0.67%。。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1.本周上海全乳胶周均价 14000 元/吨，+150/+1.08%；青岛市场 20 号泰标周均价 | | | | | 1724 美元/吨，+29/+1.71%；青岛市场 20 号泰混周均价 13926 元/吨，+156/+1.13% | | | | | 2.截至 7 月 3 日，OSE12 月 RSS3 橡胶收盘价 310.5 日元/公斤，日跌幅 0.80%。 | | | | | 3.本周中国半钢胎样本企业产能利用率为 64.13%，环比-6.27 个百分点，同比-15.85 | | | | | 个百分点 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the treasury bond in the macro and financial sector is "oscillation" [1] Core View - The macro environment and monetary policy have no significant changes, and the treasury bond futures may oscillate in the short term [2] Summary by Relevant Contents Market Performance - On Thursday, the opening of most main contracts of treasury bond futures rose slightly, with an overall trend of bottom - hunting and recovery, closing with long lower shadows. As of the close, the 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2509 fell 0.02%, the 10 - year T2509 remained flat, the 5 - year TF2509 rose 0.01%, and the 2 - year TS2509 rose 0.01% [1] Important Information - Open market: On Thursday, the central bank conducted 5.72 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 50.93 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 45.21 billion yuan [1] - Money market: On Thursday, the short - term interest rates in the inter - bank money market declined slightly compared with the previous trading day. The weighted average of DR001 for the whole day was 1.32% (1.36% on the previous trading day), and the weighted average of DR007 for the whole day was 1.47% (1.51% on the previous trading day) [1] - Cash bond market: On Thursday, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds fluctuated narrowly compared with the previous trading day. The yield to maturity of 2 - year treasury bonds rose 0.25 BP to 1.36%, the 5 - year yield fell 0.42 BP to 1.49%, the 10 - year yield rose 0.11 BP to 1.64%, and the 30 - year yield rose 0.35 BP to 1.85% [1] - The Caixin China General Services Business Activity Index (Services PMI) in June was 50.6, down 0.5 percentage points from May. The expansion speed of China's service industry slowed down in June due to factors such as the fading effect of the May Day and Dragon Boat Festival holidays [1] - The US unemployment rate in June was reported at 4.1% (market forecast: 4.3%, previous value: 4.2%). The number of non - farm payrolls in the US increased by 147,000 in June (forecast: an increase of 110,000, previous value: an increase of 139,000). The stronger - than - expected non - farm payroll report prompted traders to withdraw their bets on a Fed rate cut this month [1] Market Logic - The Central Financial and Economic Commission's Sixth Meeting on July 1st pointed out that the construction of a unified national market should be advanced in depth, and the low - price and disorderly competition of enterprises should be regulated in accordance with laws and regulations to promote the orderly withdrawal of backward production capacity. The policy is conducive to stabilizing prices and restoring corporate profits, but the effect may take a long time to appear [1] - The regular meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee in the second quarter of 2025 suggested increasing the intensity of monetary policy regulation, guiding financial institutions to increase the intensity of currency and credit investment, flexibly grasping the intensity and rhythm of policy implementation, and intensifying the implementation of incremental policies. It also called for observing and evaluating the bond market from a macro - prudential perspective and paying attention to changes in long - term yields [1] - The China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in June was 49.7%, remaining below the boom - bust line for the third consecutive month (previous value: 49.5%). After the cross - half - year period, the capital interest rate has been declining continuously, which is beneficial to bond bulls [2] Trading Strategy - Trading - type investors should conduct band operations [2]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The market is expected to evolve into a trending upward market due to measures such as anti - involution, capital market reforms, and the improvement of the A - share market's attractiveness [1][2]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Review - On Thursday, the major indexes of the two markets fluctuated slightly upward. The CSI 1000 index closed at 6342 points, up 33 points or 0.53%; the CSI 500 index closed at 5922 points, up 29 points or 0.50%; the SSE 50 index closed at 2724 points, up 2 points or 0.07%; the CSI 300 index closed at 3968 points, up 24 points or 0.62%. The trading volume of the two markets was 1.30 trillion yuan, showing a slight contraction. The top - rising ETFs were 5GETF, Innovation Pharmaceutical ETF Cathay, etc., while the top - falling ones were Energy ETF, Oil and Gas Resources ETF, etc. The top - rising sector indexes were consumer electronics, components, etc., and the top - falling ones were marine economy, coal mining, etc. The margin funds of CSI 1000, CSI 500, and CSI 300 index futures had net inflows of 100 million, 50 million, and 20 million yuan respectively [1]. Important Information - The CSRC meeting proposed to optimize capital market mechanisms and promote a new round of comprehensive in - depth capital market reforms. The 6th meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission initiated anti - involution and capacity - reduction actions in industries such as photovoltaic, steel, and cement. In June 2025, the number of new A - share accounts reached 1.65 million, with a cumulative total of 12.6 million in the first half of the year. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology planned to regulate the photovoltaic industry's low - price competition. The US Department of Commerce revoked the requirement for three major chip design software suppliers to apply for a license for their business in China. The US added 147,000 non - farm jobs in June, with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.1%. In May, the unit price of Japanese automobile exports to the US dropped by about 20% year - on - year. There were different views on the impact of stablecoins on US Treasury bond demand. Some institutions believed that US stocks were the best investment choice, and the US employment data was mixed [1][2]. Market Logic - The anti - involution actions boosted listed companies' performance, and the capital market played a multi - level role in promoting consumption through a closed - loop policy design [2]. Future Outlook - The market is expected to trend upward. Factors include capital market reforms, anti - involution and capacity - reduction actions, the recovery of new account openings in the A - share market, the revocation of restrictions on chip design software suppliers' business in China, the potential inflow of international funds into the A - share market, and the governance of low - price competition in enterprises [2]. Trading Strategy - For stock index futures, go long on the four major stock index futures contracts. For stock index options, buy out - of - the - money long - term call options [2].

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 7 月 4 日星期五 研究员： 纪晓云 从业资格： F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 周三螺纹主力收于 3076，上涨 1.45%；热卷主力收于 3208，上涨 1.45%。不锈钢主 力收于 12710，上涨 0.55%。夜盘继续收涨。 【重要资讯】 1、本周，五大品种钢材总库存量 1339.93 万吨，周环比降 0.1 万吨。其中，钢厂 | | | | | 库存量 423.8 万吨，周环比降 9.72 万吨；社会库存量 916.13 万吨，周环比增 9.62 | | | | | 万吨。 | | | | | 2、乘联分会：6 月 1 日-30 日，全国乘用车市场零售 203.2 万辆，同比增长 15%， | | | | | 环比增长 5%；全国乘用车新能源市场零售 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the energy and chemical industry (specifically for bottle chips) is "Oscillating Weakly" [1] Report's Core View - The price of bottle chips is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short - term due to large spot inventory pressure and the downstream entering the off - season, despite factors like the end of the Israel - Iran conflict, a rebound in crude oil prices, a significant decline in bottle chip production this week, strong expectations for the terminal consumption peak season with rising temperatures, high export volume in May, and expected increases in the开工 rate of downstream industries [1] Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Review - On Thursday night, the futures price of the main contract PR2509 of bottle chips dropped by 8 yuan to 5908 yuan/ton. The open interest of the main contract 2509 was 42,300 lots, a decrease of 618 lots. In the spot market, the price of water - grade bottle chips in the East China market fell by 5 yuan to 6000 yuan/ton, and in the South China market, it dropped by 10 yuan to 6050 yuan/ton [1] Important Information - Supply and cost - profit: Domestic polyester bottle chip production was 354,200 tons, a decrease of 11,400 tons from last week. The weekly average capacity utilization rate of domestic polyester bottle chips was 77.5%, a decrease of 2.4% from last week. The production cost of polyester bottle chips was 5725 yuan, a decrease of 3.1%. The weekly production gross profit of polyester bottle chips was - 300 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 70.9 yuan/ton [1] - Demand: In May 2025, China's polyester bottle chip exports were 619,000 tons, an increase of 38,200 tons from the previous month. The cumulative export volume in 2025 was 2.6955 million tons [1] - OPEC decision: Eight OPEC and non - OPEC oil - producing countries including Saudi Arabia and Russia decided to increase daily production by 411,000 barrels starting from June this year [1] - Oil price: Uncertainty in US tariff policies and the likelihood of OPEC+ continuing to increase production in August led to a decline in international oil prices. The NYMEX crude oil futures 08 contract was at 67.00, down 0.45 dollars/barrel, a month - on - month decrease of 0.67%. The ICE Brent crude oil futures 09 contract was at 68.80, down 0.31 dollars/barrel, a month - on - month decrease of 0.45%. The main contract 2508 of China's INE crude oil futures rose 5.2 to 503.7 yuan/barrel and 3.3 to 507 yuan/barrel at night [1] Market Logic - Geopolitical factors led to a rebound in crude oil prices. This week, bottle chip production decreased significantly. With rising temperatures, there are strong expectations for the terminal consumption peak season, and the downstream industries'开工 rate is expected to increase. However, large spot inventory pressure and the downstream entering the off - season lead to a short - term weakly oscillating price of bottle chips [1] Trading Strategy - The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the black metal sector (silicon manganese and ferrosilicon) is "oscillating with a bearish bias" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - This week, silicon manganese and ferrosilicon mainly rebounded following the black metal market. On the spot market, downstream replenishment increased, leading to a slight increase in the spot prices of silicon manganese and ferrosilicon. The supply - side of silicon manganese continued to recover, and steel - making demand also gradually increased with market sentiment. Manganese ore has strong short - term support, but the elasticity of steel demand is crucial for the continued improvement of silicon manganese and ferrosilicon demand. It is necessary to pay attention to the steel demand and prices in mid - to - late July. Short - term recommendation is to wait and see. The supply and demand of both silicon manganese and ferrosilicon have improved, but the sustainability of demand needs verification. In the short term, pay attention to the resistance level of 5800 for silicon manganese and 5500 for ferrosilicon [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Yesterday, the SM2509 contract closed at 5712, a 0.24% decrease compared to the previous trading day's close. The SF2509 contract closed at 5390, an 0.85% decrease compared to the previous trading day's close [1] 3.2 Important Information - This week, the total inventory of five major steel products was 13.3993 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1 thousand tons. Among them, the steel mill inventory was 4.238 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 9.72 thousand tons; the social inventory was 9.1613 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 9.62 thousand tons [1] - On July 3, the domestic coking coal market was stable with a slight upward trend. This week, the average daily output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mine samples surveyed by Mysteel was 739 thousand tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.1 thousand tons, and the clean coal inventory was 4.096 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 535 thousand tons. The coal mine inventory decreased significantly, some pit - mouth coal mines slightly raised their quotes, and the online bidding was also strong, with most coal prices rising by 10 - 50 yuan/ton [1] - Mysteel's statistics on 187 independent silicon manganese enterprises showed that the national capacity utilization rate was 40.34%, an increase of 1.13% from last week; the average daily output was 25730 tons, an increase of 125 tons; the weekly demand for silicon manganese in five major steel products (70% of the total) was 126789 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.72%, and the national silicon manganese output (99% of the weekly supply) was 180110 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.49% [1] 3.3 Market Logic - This week, silicon manganese and ferrosilicon mainly rebounded following the black metal market. On the spot market, downstream replenishment increased, leading to a slight increase in the spot prices of silicon manganese and ferrosilicon. On the supply side, the production of silicon manganese continued to recover, and steel - making demand also gradually increased with market sentiment. Manganese ore has strong short - term support, but the elasticity of steel demand is crucial for the continued improvement of silicon manganese and ferrosilicon demand. It is necessary to pay attention to the steel demand and prices in mid - to - late July [1] 3.4 Trading Strategy - The supply and demand of both silicon manganese and ferrosilicon have improved, but the sustainability of demand needs verification. In the short term, pay attention to the resistance level of 5800 for silicon manganese and 5500 for ferrosilicon [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the global economy in the macro and financial sector is (Bullish) [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The global economy maintains an upward trend. The US labor market is strong, with better - than - expected non - farm payrolls in June, and the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates in September. China's economic indicators such as the PMI production index and new order index are expanding, and the comprehensive rectification of involution - style competition boosts listed company performance. The European Central Bank has cut interest rates 8 times, and Germany's military expansion promotes the recovery of European manufacturing. China may take the lead in the "robot race" [1] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Important Information - The US has reached a trade agreement with Vietnam, and all Vietnamese goods exported to the US will face at least a 20% tariff and "fully open the market" to the US [1] - In June, the US non - farm payrolls increased by 147,000, far exceeding the expected 106,000, and the non - farm payrolls in April and May were revised up by a total of 16,000. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.1% [1] - BlackRock believes that due to the strong profit growth driven by AI, US stocks are still the best investment choice and are expected to outperform European stocks again. In the context of inflation concerns and increasing debt burdens, US Treasuries will perform worse than US stocks [1] - The US Department of Commerce has revoked the requirement for three major global chip design software suppliers to apply for government licenses for their business in China [1] - The London copper price has climbed close to this year's highest level, and the overnight spread of copper prices jumped to a premium of nearly $100 per ton last week, the largest gap since 2021. Analysts warn of a possible "short squeeze" [1] - The European Commission has proposed a revision to the European Climate Law, aiming to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions by 90% compared to 1990 levels by 2040 [1] - In May, the unit price of Japanese automobile exports to the US dropped by about 20% year - on - year, while the export volume only decreased by 3.9%, indicating that Japan maintained shipments and market share through significant price cuts but suffered a heavy blow to profits [1] - Citi believes that whether stablecoins substantially drive the demand for US Treasuries depends on the source of funds. If newly issued stablecoins come from the transfer of existing bank deposits or money market funds, there will be no net new demand for US Treasuries [1] Global Economic Logic - The strong US non - farm payroll data in June shows a robust labor market. The market anticipates a Fed rate cut in September. The US Markit manufacturing PMI in June was 52.0, continuing to expand. China's PMI production index and new order index are expanding, and the rectification of involution - style competition boosts corporate performance. The European Central Bank's 8 interest - rate cuts and Germany's 30% military expansion drive the recovery of European manufacturing. China may lead in the "robot race" [1]

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - From 2021 - 2023, with the intensification of energy consumption dual - control policies, coal and non - ferrous supplies tightened, PPI rebounded, and industrial prosperity improved [2] - In 2016, the goal of steel and coal capacity reduction was set, combining administrative and market means [2] - In 2017 - 2018, capacity clearance was completed, and the utilization rate of steel and coal production capacity returned to a reasonable level, with industry profitability restored [2] - In 2024, the government set a unit GDP energy consumption reduction target and introduced an energy - saving and carbon - reduction action plan [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs - **Supply - side Reform Timeline** - In November 2015, the term "supply - side structural reform" was first proposed [2] - In December 2015, the "Three Reductions, One Deleveraging, and One Strengthening" tasks were refined [2] - In July 2020, the pandemic led to a direct impact on the recovery of commodities [2] - In September 2020, the "dual - carbon" goal was put forward, shifting the reform focus [2] - In February 2022, the Russia - Ukraine conflict intensified the energy crisis [2] - In March 2022, the US announced the release of 180 million barrels of crude oil reserves [2] - In March 2024, the government set a unit GDP energy consumption reduction target of 2.5% [2] - In May 2024, an energy - saving and carbon - reduction action plan was introduced to set energy - efficiency thresholds for different industries [2] - **Industry Development Impact** - The implementation of relevant policies led to changes in coal, steel, and other industries, including capacity reduction, production capacity utilization rate adjustment, and profitability recovery [2]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the black building materials (steel) sector is short - term oscillatory and bullish [1] 2. Report's Core View - The black building materials (steel) market showed significant price increases on Wednesday and night trading. Although the macro and news aspects are favorable, the fundamental situation has not improved significantly, so the upside potential should be viewed with caution, and the short - term trend is oscillatory and bullish [1] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Market Review - On Wednesday, rebar and hot - rolled coils rose significantly, and the night trading closed higher [1] 3.2 Important Information - The National Development and Reform Commission recently allocated over 300 billion yuan to support the third - batch of "two major" construction projects in 2025, and the 800 - billion - yuan "two major" construction project list for this year has been fully issued [1] - As of June 30, 27 cities introduced 34 real - estate market relaxation policies, with many areas optimizing housing provident fund policies, and some cities extending relevant relaxation policy periods [1] - Vice - Premier Zhang Guoqing recently investigated the transformation and upgrading and innovation development of the manufacturing industry in Hubei, emphasizing the focus on the real economy and promoting high - end, intelligent, and green development of the manufacturing industry [1] 3.3 Market Logic - On Wednesday, the spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils generally increased with good trading volume. Futures prices also rose significantly. In the industrial aspect, due to the decline in raw material prices such as coke, scrap steel, and iron ore, the profit of building materials improved, with a profit of about 100 yuan per ton of steel. Some blast furnaces resumed production but not at full capacity. Electric furnaces continued to suffer deep losses, with a loss of 100 - 150 yuan per ton during off - peak hours, and production continued to decline. The total actual steel supply only increased slightly. The emission reduction and production restriction in Tangshan from July 4 - 15 are beneficial to the market but have little impact on overall production. On the demand side, due to hot and rainy weather, demand continued to show off - season characteristics. The recent central meeting may briefly support the market. The upper resistance level of the rebar main contract moved up to 3100 after breaking through 3050, with an important support level at 2912. The support level of hot - rolled coils is 3026, with a resistance level of 3282 after breaking through 3200. The support level of stainless steel is 12300, and the resistance level is 13000 [1] 3.4 Trading Strategy - With the positive macro and news factors already reflected in the market, and without obvious improvement in the fundamentals, the upside potential should be viewed with caution, and the short - term trend is oscillatory and bullish [1]