1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the disturbance of macro events gradually fades, the trading logic of iron ore will gradually return to the fundamentals. With stable supply, slight recovery in demand, the port inventory is still accumulating but gradually transferring to downstream steel mills. Coupled with the futures discount under the back structure + positive basis of futures contracts, the spot and futures will form a certain resonance in the short term, showing a trend of gradually strengthening in oscillation [5] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents Market行情态势回顾 - **Futures price**: The main contract of iron ore futures oscillated and slightly declined during the day, closing at 789 yuan/ton, a decrease of -7.5 yuan/ton or -0.94% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 297,000 lots, and the open interest decreased by 16,000 to 614,000 lots. The settled funds were 10.651 billion yuan. Although the disk price corrected, it still showed a relatively strong overall trend [1] - **Spot price**: The mainstream varieties of port spot, PB powder at Qingdao Port, rose 3 to 807 yuan/ton, and Super Special powder rose 3 to 692 yuan/ton. The main swap contract was at 105.85 (+1.68) US dollars/ton. The spot price strengthened slightly, and the swap price still showed a relatively strong upward breakthrough [1] - **Basis and spread**: The price of PB powder at Qingdao Port converted to the disk price was 846.7 yuan/ton, and the basis was 57.7 yuan/ton, with the basis widening again. The spread between iron ore contracts 1 - 5 was 20 yuan, and the spread between contracts 5 - 9 was 22 yuan. The iron ore futures contracts showed a back structure + positive basis, with certain support below the futures price, continuing the trend of gradually strengthening [1] Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: The supply side is relatively stable, and attention should be paid to weather disturbances in the first quarter [2] - **Demand**: The sample molten iron production has gradually stabilized. Currently, steel mills' willingness to replenish inventory is still weak. There is an expectation of blast furnace复产 in January. Attention should be paid to the recovery height of molten iron before the Spring Festival and the release rhythm of inventory replenishment demand [2] - **Inventory**: Port inventory continued to accumulate, and steel mills' inventory increased slightly month - on - month but was still at a relatively low level year - on - year. The game of inventory replenishment at the end of the year is intense. With large - scale accumulation of port inventory, small - scale replenishment by steel mills, and strong upstream - downstream game, the stabilization of molten iron and pre - festival inventory replenishment support the iron ore price. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate and slightly strengthen [2] Macro - level Analysis - **United States**: The economic aggregate in the third quarter exceeded expectations, but the growth momentum showed signs of marginal slowdown. The consumer confidence index in December dropped to 89.1, a month - on - month decline of 3.8 points, lower than the market expectation of 91.0, reflecting that residents' judgment on the economic and employment prospects tends to be cautious. In terms of policy expectations, under the combination of "growth resilience + weakening confidence", the Fed is more inclined to be cautiously loose. In the manufacturing industry, the recovery of factory orders is moderate, and the differentiation in high - end manufacturing deepens [3][4] - **China**: The demand recovery in November was slow, consumption and investment were under pressure, and the year - on - year decline in industrial profits widened. However, the cumulative profit from January to November still had a slight positive increase, and the economy showed "stabilization at a low level" with policy support still in place. There is industry differentiation: the equipment manufacturing industry led the growth (+7.2%, with some industries having high growth), the raw material manufacturing industry accelerated (+22.1%), the consumer goods industry turned positive, and the automobile industry weakened slightly (-0.3%). The improvement in profits mainly relies on supply contraction and price recovery. If demand fails to keep up and the base increases, there will still be constraints in the future [4]

白糖期现货基差修复基本完成，远月合约估值也得到一定修复。近月仍然存 在较大供应压力，短期上行动力偏弱，建议等待远月盘面调整结束后，或可择机 逢低买入。 【冠通期货研究报告】 软商品日报：近弱远强 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 30 日 棉花：当前市场基本面因素支撑有限，涨势主要受到资金炒作明年新疆种植 面积或将调减的相关政策消息影响。棉花市场缺乏明确的利空因素，下游虽在棉 价带动下被动涨价，但需求依旧较弱，出货情况一般，不过目前下游整体压力也 尚可，负反馈暂不明显。当前郑棉价格上行至近期高位，上方仍需注意阶段性风 险，不过在新年度新疆棉种植面积预期下降的情况下，长期仍相对乐观，预计短 期棉价将呈偏强震荡态势。 价格想要有趋势行情，仍需大量时间蓄能，建议等待盘面回调后再逢低买入 入为主。 白糖：2025/26 榨季截至 12 月 27 日，泰国累计甘蔗入榨量为 1407.33 万吨， 较去年同期的 1689.76 万吨减少 282.43 万吨，降幅 16.71%；甘蔗含糖分 11.44%， 较去年同期的 11.51%减少 0.07%；产糖率为 9.09%，较去年同期的 8.995%增加 0.095%；产糖量 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively presents the overnight performance of the global financial and commodity markets, along with significant macro - economic and corporate news. It shows that geopolitical factors are affecting the energy market, and various industries such as metals, black - series, and agriculture are experiencing different trends due to factors like policy, production, and market demand. The financial market also shows a complex situation with the divergence of stock indices and fluctuations in different asset classes. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Night - Market Market Trends - The US crude oil main contract rose 1.92% to $57.83 per barrel, and Brent crude oil main contract rose 1.66% to $61.24 per barrel. Geopolitical issues and production decline in Kazakhstan drove up oil prices [5][43]. - Most London base metals declined, with LME lead and copper rising slightly, and LME tin falling 6.55% to $40010 per ton [5][43]. - Spot silver first broke through the $80 per ounce mark but then plunged, dragging down other precious metals. COMEX gold futures fell 4.45% to $4350.2 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 7.2% to $71.64 per ounce [6][7]. - Domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance, with some like asphalt rising and others like pulp falling [7]. Important News Macroeconomic News - The National Development and Reform Commission proposed to develop new - quality productivity in a coordinated manner [9]. - Trump said the US military's strike on a Venezuelan factory reduced drug trading by 97% [9]. - The Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (European route) rose 9.7% [10]. - Russia set the withdrawal of Ukrainian armed forces from the Donbass as a pre - condition for a truce [10]. - The State Administration for Market Regulation deployed key tasks for 2026, including anti - monopoly measures [11][12]. Energy and Chemical Futures - The start - up rate of China's LOW - E glass sample enterprises increased [14]. - A subsidiary of Boyuan Chemical decided to shut down due to continuous losses [14]. - The expected arrival of New Zealand coniferous logs at 13 Chinese ports increased significantly [14]. - Guyana's oil production in November rose to about 894,000 barrels per day [15]. Metal Futures - Yunnan Province plans to strengthen resource - based industries [17]. - Longpan Technology will conduct production line maintenance, reducing lithium iron phosphate output [19]. - The price of high - quality and battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased [19]. - UBS raised its gold price target for the first three quarters of 2026 [19]. - Environmental controls in some areas affected the aluminum market [19]. - Zinc mines in different regions had production changes [20]. - Chuanfa Longmang's projects were put into production or in trial production [20]. Black - Series Futures - Global iron ore shipments increased, while China's 47 - port and 45 - port arrivals decreased [22][24]. - Hebei steel mills lowered coke prices, starting the fourth round of price cuts [24]. - Tiansteel will conduct blast furnace maintenance [25]. Agricultural Product Futures - India's domestic sugar quota for January 2026 was set at 2.2 million tons, and the market is expected to be stable [27]. - China's domestic oil mills' soybean crushing volume remained high in December [27]. - The commercial inventory of soybean oil decreased, while that of palm oil increased [27]. - US soybean export data showed changes, and Brazil's soybean sowing rate was 97.9% [27][30]. Financial Market Finance - A - share indices were divergent, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.04%, and the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index falling [32]. - Hong Kong stocks fell, with large - cap tech stocks generally declining [32]. - China's public - offering fund scale exceeded 37 trillion yuan in November [32]. - GSM, an electric mobility service provider in Vietnam, plans to list in Hong Kong [34]. Industry - The National Energy Administration emphasized the construction of charging infrastructure [35]. - The 2026 auto market growth is complex, with a possible January increase [35]. - Shenzhen proposed to adjust real - estate investment [35]. - Hong Kong's private housing prices rose in November [35]. - The price of imported GLP - 1 diet pills was halved [36]. - AI Agent is expected to be popularized in 2026 [36]. - The global memory industry's "super - cycle" is expected to last until 2027 [36]. Overseas - Trump criticized the Fed and considered suing Powell [38]. - Trump met with Zelensky, but no major announcements were made [38]. - The US government investigated large companies' DEI projects [38]. - US pending home sales rose in November [38]. - The Bank of Japan hinted at future interest - rate hikes [38]. - Most German business associations expect to lay off employees in 2026 [39]. - The ACCA will end online exams in March 2026 [39]. International Stock Markets - US stock indices fell, with AI - related stocks under pressure [40]. - European stock indices were mixed, with the German DAX and French CAC40 rising slightly, and the UK FTSE 100 falling slightly [42]. - Wall Street is optimistic about US stocks in 2026 [42]. - Intel bought back over 214.7 million shares worth $5 billion [42]. Commodities - Crude oil prices rose due to geopolitical factors [43]. - Most London base metals declined [43]. Bonds - China's bond market weakened, and long - term bonds were under pressure [44]. - The yield of treasury bond reverse repurchase in the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges rose [44]. - The US federal debt exceeded $38.5 trillion, and the buyer structure changed [46]. - US bond yields fell [46]. Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar fell slightly, and the central parity rate rose [47]. - The US dollar index fell slightly, and non - US currencies showed mixed performance [47].

Hot News - Market Supervision Administration to deepen fair - competition governance, crack down on administrative monopolies, and strengthen anti - monopoly and anti - unfair competition law enforcement in 2026 [2] - Trump and Zelensky held talks, close to an agreement but territorial issues remain tricky [2] - Boyuan Chemical to halt production at its subsidiary due to resource, price, and cost issues [2] - Domestic soybean oil mills' monthly soybean crushing in December expected to reach 8.9 million tons, up 700,000 tons year - on - year [3] - Environmental controls in Luoyang and Gongyi cause aluminum processing plants to halt production, with demand shrinking [3] Key Commodities and Markets - Focus on urea, copper, palladium, asphalt, and lithium carbonate [4] - Night - session performance: non - metallic building materials up 2.17%, precious metals up 34.15%, etc. [4] - Asset performance: Shanghai Composite Index up 0.04% daily, London spot gold down 4.42% daily, etc. [6] - Major commodity trends include BDI, CRB, WTI crude oil, etc. [8]

本期 前值 涨跌 河北 1730 1730 0 河南 1700 1710 -10 山东 1710 1730 -20 山西 1560 1580 -20 江苏 1710 1720 -10 安徽 1710 1720 -10 黑龙江 1760 1760 0 内蒙古 1770 1770 0 河北东光 1710 1720 -10 山东华鲁 1710 1710 0 江苏灵谷 1760 1760 0 安徽昊源 1670 1690 -20 山东05基差 -10 -5 -5 山东01基差 25 18 7 河北05基差 -10 -5 -5 河北01基差 25 18 7 1-5价差 65 68 -3 5-9价差 35 23 12 仓单数量（张） 仓单数量合计 10750 10750 0 中东FOB 378.5 378.5 0 美湾FOB 368.5 368.5 0 埃及FOB 435 435 0 波罗的海FOB 365 365 0 巴西CFR 402.5 402.5 0 注:数据来源于Wind，钢联数据，冠通研究整理 冠通期货 研究咨询部 王静 执业资格证书编号：F0235424/Z0000771 联系方式：010-85356618 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - The report gives a short - term volatile rating for the glass industry [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The glass market is in a stage of inventory digestion. With supply contraction, inventory is being digested relatively quickly. However, due to the continuous weakness in demand, the price may maintain a volatile trend in the short term. Attention should be paid to the trend of the pressure near the 20 - day moving average. Also, continuous monitoring of macro - policy changes and production line cold - repair situations is necessary [4] Group 3: Market行情 Review Summary Futures Market - The glass futures main contract opened lower and fluctuated, closing with a doji star. The 120 - minute Bollinger Bands tightened, indicating a volatile trend. Short - term attention should be paid to the pressure near the upper Bollinger Band line. The trading volume decreased by 353,000 lots compared to the previous day, and the open interest increased by 1,877 lots. The intraday high was 1063, the low was 1045, and the closing price was 1051, up 6 yuan/ton or 0.57% from the previous day's settlement price [1] Spot Market - Over the weekend, prices in the Hebei market mostly dropped by 20 - 30 yuan/ton, with downstream buyers restocking at low prices and overall sales being acceptable. In the East China market, prices showed a mixed trend. Two production lines in Zhejiang shut down, causing some prices to rise, while in Shandong, under the impact of low - price supplies from North China, the price center loosened, and demand remained mainly for immediate needs. The northwest market remained stable, but with downstream enterprises gradually on holiday, the market had prices but no transactions [1] Basis - The spot price in North China was 1000, with a basis of - 51 yuan/ton [1] Group 4: Fundamental Data Summary Supply - As of December 25, the daily average output of national float glass was 154,500 tons, a decrease of 0.39% compared to the 18th. The national float glass output was 1.084 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.17% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.06%. The industry's average operating rate was 73.89%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%, and the average capacity utilization rate was 77.42%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.14%. A float glass production line in Guangdong with a designed capacity of 900 tons per day was shut down for cold - repair, reigniting expectations for production line cold - repair [2] Inventory - The total inventory of sample enterprises was 58.623 million weight boxes, a month - on - month increase of 65,000 weight boxes or 0.11%, and a year - on - year increase of 29.63%. The inventory days were 26.5 days, the same as the previous period [2] Demand - From January to November, the national real estate development investment was 785.91 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.9%. Among them, residential investment was 604.32 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.0%. The funds in place for real estate development enterprises from January to November were 851.45 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.9%. The average order days of the national deep - processing sample enterprises were 9.7 days, a month - on - month decrease of 4.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 22.6%. Deep - processing orders in the northern region continued to decline month - on - month, while there were little overall changes in the central and eastern regions. Orders in South China continued to increase moderately month - on - month, and in the southwest region, there were both increases and decreases, with the average order days showing a slight month - on - month decline. The scattered orders of the national deep - processing sample enterprises were still concentrated within 3 - 7 days, and the scheduling of some engineering orders was shortened to 15 - 20 days [2][3] Profit - As of December 25, according to Longzhong Information statistics, the profit from natural - gas - fired production was - 186.4 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 5 yuan/ton), the profit from petroleum - coke - fired production was - 7.2 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 7.14 yuan/ton), and the profit from coal - gas - fired production was - 21.88 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 14.26 yuan/ton) [3] Group 5: Main Logic Summary - Production lines using natural gas as fuel have long - term losses, and those using coal and petroleum coke are also in the red, which may accelerate the capacity clearance of some enterprises. The short - term market sentiment was boosted by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's mention of rectifying "involution - style" competition last week. However, real estate development investment and funds in place continued to decline year - on - year, with weak completion and new construction, and the real - estate demand continued to weaken. The increasing inventory pressure and weak enterprise orders put pressure on spot prices [4]

【冠通期货研究报告】 螺纹日报：震荡整理 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 29 日 一、市场行情回顾 1，期货价格：螺纹钢主力合约周一持仓量减仓 3632 手，成交量相比上一 交易日略微缩量，成交量 1051146 手。日内震荡运行，最低 3116，最高 3150， 收于 3130 元/吨，上涨 22 元/吨，涨幅 0.71%。 2，现货价格：主流地区上螺纹钢现货 HRB400E 20mm 报价 3300 元/吨，相 比上一交易日上涨 10 元。 3，基差：期货贴水现货 170 元/吨。期货贴水较大，一定程度上继续支撑 期货价格。 二、基本面数据 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 库存端：库存连续去化，截止 12 月 25 日当周，总库存周环比下降 18.29 万吨至 434.25 万吨，连续 8 周去化，但同比仍高 34.51 万吨，其中社 会库存294.19万吨，周环比下降18.81万吨，去库有所放缓，钢厂库存140.06 万吨，微增 0.52 万吨，社库去库显示当下需求韧性。但本周库存去化速度 放缓，整体库存压力仍可控。 ■宏观面：中央经济会议 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 尿素日报：反弹乏力，关注上方压力 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 29 日 【行情分析】 今日尿素低开高走，日内收平。市场氛围一般，企业开启降价吸单，山 东、河南及河北尿素工厂小颗粒尿素出厂价格范围多在 1620-1690 元/吨，多较 上周五下调 10-20 元/吨，河南工厂价格偏低端。基本面来看，目前日产 20 万 吨，前期停车企业有停车，1 月份西南地区气头装置依然有停车减产计划，但 1 月份也有大量前期停车装置复产，难有新低日产数据。复合肥工厂本期开工负 荷继续下滑，环比下降 1.62 个百分点，其中主要受华北地区环保限产的影响， 开工率多有下降，但东北及西南等地区相对稳定，上周开会后重点磷肥生产企 业与下游主要采购企业达成共识，后续磷肥保供稳价为主，后续预计冬储市场 稳定运行，环保限制解除后，开工或有回升，原料采购端有韧性。本期库存去 化幅度增大，主要系近期上下游的装置均有部分减产，目前同步去年偏低 45.61 万吨。尿素今日拉涨乏力，上方压力明显，目前尚未到农需旺季，淡季 备肥为主，价格难有大幅涨跌，短期小幅震荡为主，若无利多政策，预计震荡 回调，短期偏弱，中长期偏强。 【 ...

软商品日报：近弱远强 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 29 日 棉花：当前市场基本面因素支撑有限，涨势主要受到资金炒作明年新疆种植 面积或将调减的相关政策消息影响。有消息称，12 月 23 日自治区棉花产业发展 领导小组办公室召开了调减新疆棉花种植面积专题会议。目前市场尚无相关政策 确切消息，但若属实，明年新疆种植面积将大幅下降；当前也正值三年目标价格 补贴政策的重新评估阶段。 市场现货利多有限，远月炒作在拉动价格上涨后，短期上涨动能或面临枯竭， 存在回调风险，棉花基本面上想要有趋势性的行情驱动，仍需大量时间蓄能，建 议等待盘面回调后再介入。 【冠通期货研究报告】 注：本报告有关现货市场的资讯与行情信息，来源于棉花信息网、沐甜科技、 泛糖科技、金十期货网站。 本报告发布机构 --冠通期货股份有限公司（已获中国证监会许可的期货交易咨询业务资格） 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任 何保证。报告中的内容和意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。 我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的任何直接或间接损失概不负责。 本报告仅向特定客户传送 构和个人均不得 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 对钢铁、石化等原材料产业，关键在于平衡供需、优化结构。原材料行业是 我国国民经济的重要基础产业和支柱产业。当前，钢铁、石化等原材料行业普遍 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 甲醇日报：伊朗装置扰动下，反内卷风波再起 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 29 日 【基本面分析】 库存方面：截至 2025 年 12 月 24 日，中国甲醇港口库存总量在 141.25 万吨， 较上一期数据增加 19.37 万吨。其中，华东地区累库，库存增加 20.77 万吨；华 南地区去库，库存减少 1.40 万吨。本周甲醇港口库存大幅累库，主要累库幅度 体现在江苏，周期内卸货顺利，显性外轮记入 40.33 万吨。内地转弱导致江苏沿 江提货明显转弱，助力江苏库存大幅积累；浙江地区刚需稳定，库存窄幅波动。 本周华南港口库存小幅去库。广东地区周内仅内贸船只抵港，主流库区提货量在 当地及周边支撑下依旧稳健，库存呈现去库。福建地区进口集中卸货，下游维持 刚需消耗，库存有所累积。 进口方面：伊朗地区因限气导致开工率降低，装船放缓，进口压力有一定缓 解，但考虑到 11 ...