【冠通期货研究报告】 利润方面，全国 30 家独立焦化厂平均盈利-18 元/吨；山西准一级焦平均盈 利-3 元/吨，山东准一级焦平均盈利 27 元/吨，内蒙二级焦平均盈利-64 元/吨， 河北准一级焦平均盈利 35 元/吨。 下游需求，钢材终端需求疲弱，刚需补库为主；247 家钢厂盈利率回升 1.3 个百分点至 37.23%，日均铁水产量环比上周增加 0.03 万吨至 226.58 万吨，中 止前期五连降，同比去年减少 1.29 万吨。 上游焦煤：钢焦企业采购均较谨慎，独立焦企库存微增 3.43 万吨至 1039.72 万吨，钢厂炼焦煤库存小增 1.73 万吨至 806.72 万吨，煤矿炼焦煤库存增加 10.1 万吨的同时，港口进口炼焦煤库存增加 23.09 万吨。因此，炼焦煤综合库存环增 1.47%至 2647.24 万吨，创近 7 个月新高，同比降幅仍达近 14%。 消息方面，河北天津主流钢厂开启第四轮提降。国家发改委：持续实施粗钢 产量调控，严禁违规新增产能，促进优胜劣汰。工国务院国资委:国有企业要带 头抵制"内卷式"竞争带动产业链上下游企业融通发展。全国财政工作会议在北京 召开。会议指出，2026 年 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The hot-rolled coil is currently in a situation where cost support and inventory pressure are in a game under the pattern of weak supply and demand. It is expected to maintain a sideways consolidation, and there are no unilateral driving factors for now. Attention should be paid to the winter storage market in January and the recovery slope of production capacity [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures price: The main contract of hot-rolled coil futures increased its open interest by 43,907 lots on Monday, with a trading volume of 511,982 lots. The intraday low was 3,280 yuan, the high was 3,308 yuan, and it closed at 3,287 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton or 0.55% [1]. - Spot price: The price of hot-rolled coil in Shanghai, a major region, was reported at 3,290 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan from the previous trading day [1]. - Basis: The basis between futures and spot was 3 yuan, approaching flat water [2]. Fundamental Data - Supply: As of December 25, the weekly output of hot-rolled coil increased by 16,300 tons to 2.9354 million tons week-on-week, and decreased by 136,000 tons year-on-year. This week's output rebounded after a sharp decline last week, currently near the lowest level of the year and at a near 4-year low, enhancing price support. The reduction in production was mainly due to profit contraction, more steel mill maintenance, some steel mills switching to rebar production, and the seasonal off-season [3]. - Demand: As of December 25, the weekly apparent consumption increased by 87,600 tons to 3.0704 million tons week-on-week, and decreased by 22,900 tons year-on-year. This week's apparent consumption rebounded, and the export rush market emerged, but the winter storage market in January still needs to be monitored [3]. - Inventory: As of December 25, the total inventory decreased by 135,000 tons to 3.7722 million tons week-on-week (social inventory decreased by 106,000 tons, and steel mill inventory decreased by 29,000 tons). The total inventory continued to be destocked, and the destocking accelerated, indicating that demand was resilient in late December, likely due to enterprises rushing to export. However, the total inventory was at a near 4-year high. The subsequent destocking speed needs to be monitored [3]. - Policy: The new regulations on the management of steel export licenses were introduced. In the short term, it will cause export fluctuations, increase supply, and put pressure on prices. In the long term, it will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness improvement. The Central Economic Work Conference held in December proposed a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and listed the in-depth rectification of involutionary competition as a key task for 2026, which is beneficial to prices and industry profitability. Efforts will be made to stabilize the real estate market and expand domestic demand [3][4]. - External Macro: In the United States, the core CPI in November increased by 2.6% year-on-year, the slowest growth rate since early 2021, lower than the market expectation of 3%. The overall CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year, lower than the expected 3.1% [4]. Market Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: Significant decline in supply-side production, expectation of winter storage demand, export rush market, policy support ("14th Five-Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and strong iron ore as a furnace charge [5]. - Bearish factors: Unexpected resumption of steel mill production in January, seasonal weakening of demand, insufficient manufacturing orders, and inventory accumulation suppressing prices [5]. Short-Term View Summary - The hot-rolled coil is currently in a game between cost support and inventory pressure under the pattern of weak supply and demand. Last week's reported output of hot-rolled coil rebounded but was at a relatively low level, and there may still be room for output to rebound in the future. The rebound in apparent consumption shows demand resilience, but the subsequent demand increase is limited. The total inventory continued to be destocked, but the total amount was still at a high level. There is an expectation of a relatively loose macro environment. It is necessary to monitor whether the manufacturing PMI can rise above the boom - bust line. In the future, it is necessary to pay attention to the winter storage market in January and the slope of production capacity recovery. Today's daily line closed with a long upper - shadow阳线, indicating pressure above but also support below. It is expected to mainly maintain a sideways consolidation. There are no unilateral driving factors for now [5].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - As of the close on December 29, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance. Some commodities like palladium and platinum hit the daily limit down, while others like iron ore saw significant increases. Different commodities are expected to have various trends based on their supply - demand fundamentals and external factors [6][7]. 3. Summary by Commodity Metals - **Copper**: The price of Shanghai copper (SHFE copper) has been rising recently. Market sentiment was boosted by the zero - pricing of the 2026 long - term mining processing fee and Trump's remarks on the Fed chair. However, copper product profits are squeezed, and capacity utilization is declining. Copper foil remains highly prosperous. The inventory of cathode copper on the SHFE has been increasing, indicating weak downstream demand. The copper price on the five - disk rose significantly today, breaking through the 100,000 - integer mark [9][10]. - **Palladium and Platinum**: Both hit the daily limit down, with a decline of 10% [6]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: It opened high but closed nearly 8% lower. Production is expected to increase, and downstream demand is showing signs of weakening. Although the downstream energy - storage battery still maintains growth, the expected production cut of lithium iron phosphate in the first quarter will reduce the support for carbonate lithium prices. Inventory has been decreasing recently [11]. - **Aluminum Oxide**: The 2605 contract saw an inflow of 624 million yuan in funds [7]. - **Iron Ore**: It rose by over 2%, and the 2605 contract had a 1.03 - billion - yuan inflow of funds. It was one of the commodities with significant price increases and strong capital inflows [6][7]. - **Hot Rolled Coil**: The 2605 contract had a 211 - million - yuan inflow of funds [7]. - **Gold and Silver**: The 2602 contracts of Shanghai gold and Shanghai silver had large - scale capital outflows, with 5.267 billion yuan and 5.166 billion yuan respectively [7]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: OPEC + 's eight additional voluntarily - reducing oil - producing countries reiterated the suspension of production increases in the first quarter of next year. However, the market is still in a state of supply surplus, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to the situation in Venezuela and the progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks [12][13]. - **Asphalt**: The supply is expected to decrease as some refineries have plans to switch production or stop production. The demand in the north is gradually weakening, but winter - storage demand is being released. The demand in the south is average. It is expected that the asphalt futures price will fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the situation in Venezuela [14]. Chemicals - **PP (Polypropylene)**: The downstream operating rate is at a relatively low level, and the supply is increasing with new capacity and fewer maintenance devices. The downstream is approaching the end of the peak season, and orders are decreasing. It is expected that the upward space is limited, and the L - PP spread is expected to narrow [16]. - **Plastic**: New production capacity has been put into operation recently. The agricultural film season is ending, and orders are decreasing. The overall supply - demand pattern remains unchanged, and it is expected that the upward space is limited, and the L - PP spread is expected to narrow [17][18]. - **PVC**: The upstream calcium carbide price is stable. The supply - side operating rate is decreasing, and downstream demand is weak. The export situation is not optimistic, and inventory pressure is high. It is expected to fluctuate [19]. Other Commodities - **Coking Coal**: The price opened high but closed lower. The supply from domestic mines may decrease, but imported coal is increasing. Downstream demand is weak, and inventory is rising. After the third - round price cut of coke was implemented, the fourth - round price cut has started. It is expected to be weak, and attention should be paid to the implementation of price cuts [20][21]. - **Urea**: It opened low and closed flat. The market atmosphere is average, and enterprises are reducing prices to attract orders. The daily production is around 200,000 tons. The compound - fertilizer factory's operating rate is declining, and inventory is decreasing. It is expected to fluctuate slightly in the short term, be weak in the short - term, and strong in the medium - to - long - term [22]. Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The main contracts of CSI 300 (IF), SSE 50 (IH), CSI 500 (IC), and CSI 1000 (IM) all declined, with declines of 0.56%, 0.48%, 0.67%, and 0.51% respectively [7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The main contracts of 2 - year (TS), 5 - year (TF), 10 - year (T), and 30 - year (TL) treasury bond futures all declined, with declines of 0.07%, 0.18%, 0.28%, and 0.91% respectively [7].

【冠通期货研究报告】 芳烃日报：淡季存需求压制，反内卷提振情绪 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 29 日 【基本面分析】 纯苯方面：己内酰胺生产利润-350 元/吨(-40)，酚酮生产利润-927 元/吨 (+0)，苯胺生产利润 789 元/吨(+178)，己二酸生产利润-1018 元/吨(-11)。己 内酰胺开工率 69.20%(-5.37%)，苯酚开工率 76.00%(-3.50%)，苯胺开工率 61.35% (-14.59%)，己二酸开工率 59.60%(+0.40%) 。 纯苯因关税问题，韩国对中国纯苯出口量增加，进口集中到货，港口库存压 力明显，但后续累库会逐步放缓，目前呈现供强需弱的格局。 苯乙烯方面：12 月 12 日至 18 日，中国苯乙烯工厂整体产量在 34.68 万吨， 较上期+2.38%;工厂产能利用率 69.13%，环比+1.02%。苯乙烯下游 EPS、PS、ABS 消耗量在 26.18 万吨，环比-3.89%。苯乙烯工厂库存在 17.10 万吨，环比上周 -4.23%。截至 12 月 22 日，苯乙烯华东港口库存在 13.93 万吨，环比上周+3.41%; 华南港口库存在 1.1 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 纯碱日报：短期震荡偏强 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 29 日 一、市场行情回顾 3，基差：华北重碱现货价格 1300，基差 119 元/吨。 二、基本面数据 供应方面，截止 12 月 25 日，国内纯碱产量 71.18 万吨，环比-0.96 万吨， 跌幅 1.32%。其中，轻碱产量 32.63 万吨，环比-0.48 万吨。重碱产量 38.55 万 吨，环比-0.48 万吨。综合产能利用率 81.65%，上周 82.74%，环比-1.09%。其 中氨碱产能利用率 83.32%，环比-5.90%；联产产能利用率 73.85%，环比+0.79%。 15 家年产能百万吨及以上规模企业整体产能利用率 85.80%，环比-1.68%。虽近 期阿拉善二期新产能投产，但整体行业开工率有所下调，短线供应压力略有所缓 解。 1，期货市场：纯碱主力低开低走，日内偏弱。120 分钟布林带三轨往上， 震荡偏强信号，盘中继续关注日线三十均线压力。成交量较昨日减 23.3 万手， 持仓量较昨日增 34340 手；日内最高 1203，最低 1176，收盘 1181，（较昨日结 算价）跌 7 元/吨，跌幅 0.59 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating provided in the content. 2. Core Views - In 2025, crude oil prices showed a weak oscillation. Brent spot prices dropped from $77 per barrel at the beginning of the year to $63 per barrel currently, a decline of 18.18%. Looking ahead to 2026, the overall supply of crude oil is expected to exceed demand, and prices will decline in Q1. Brent crude may fall below the lowest point in 2025. [4] - In 2026, on the supply side, OPEC+ will take a flexible approach to production increases. Non-OPEC+ supplies from countries like Brazil and Canada are expected to increase by about 1.15 million barrels per day. On the demand side, due to weak global economic recovery and new energy substitution, the growth rate of crude oil demand in 2026 is expected to be 1.1 million barrels per day. [4] - Low oil prices will suppress crude oil production. With Trump's economic stimulus and the arrival of the peak consumption season for crude oil, prices are expected to gradually bottom out and rebound in Q2. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2025 Domestic Crude Oil Price Trends - In 2025, crude oil prices showed a weak oscillation. Brent spot prices dropped from $77 per barrel at the beginning of the year to $63 per barrel, a decline of 18.18%. The internal and external price spreads oscillated within a range throughout the year. [12] Crude Oil Supply Surplus - In 2025, global crude oil supply increased by 3.01 million barrels per day year-on-year to 106.18 million barrels per day, while demand increased by 1.14 million barrels per day year-on-year to 103.9 million barrels per day, resulting in a supply surplus of 2.24 million barrels per day. EIA predicts a surplus of 2.26 million barrels per day in 2026. [22] Crude Oil Production - OPEC+ gradually lifted production cuts in 2025. OPEC's crude oil production in October was adjusted down by 21,000 barrels per day to 28.481 million barrels per day, and in November it decreased by 1,000 barrels per day month-on-month to 28.48 million barrels per day. OPEC+ production in November increased by 43,000 barrels per day month-on-month to 43.06 million barrels per day, an increase of 2.42 million barrels per day compared to the beginning of the year. [28] - Russia's sustainable crude oil production capacity has been declining. In October, the US imposed sanctions on two major Russian oil companies, which account for about half of Russia's oil exports. However, Russia may reduce the impact of sanctions through various means. [35] - Iran's crude oil production decreased from 3.278 million barrels per day at the beginning of the year to 3.221 million barrels per day in November. Venezuela's production increased from 913,000 barrels per day at the beginning of the year to 934,000 barrels per day in November. [39] - In 2025, US oil drilling rigs decreased, but production efficiency increased. US crude oil production remained stable at around 13.5 million barrels per day and reached a record high in November. It is expected to decrease by 80,000 barrels per day to 13.53 million barrels per day in 2026. [43] - Non-OPEC+ countries such as Canada, Brazil, and Guyana are important growth points for crude oil production in 2026. EIA predicts that non-OPEC countries will increase production by 1.13 million barrels per day in total. [47] China's Crude Oil Market - From January to November 2025, China's crude oil processing volume increased by 4.0% year-on-year to 675.07 million tons, and imports increased by 3.2% year-on-year to 521.87 million tons. The non-state trade import quota for 2026 is 257 million tons, the same as in 2025. [52] - In 2025, China's major refinery operating rates followed seasonal fluctuations, with higher rates in Q3 and lower rates in Q4. Shandong independent refineries had lower operating rates, between 45% - 55%. [57] - Affected by economic slowdown and new energy substitution, the growth rate of China's refined oil products slowed down. From January to October, the apparent consumption of aviation kerosene increased slightly, while gasoline and diesel consumption decreased. [62] - From January to October 2025, China's exports of diesel and gasoline decreased, while aviation kerosene exports increased. [62] - From January to October 2025, China's natural gas heavy truck sales and new energy passenger vehicle sales increased, and their market shares also increased. It is expected that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles will further increase in 2026. [67] US Crude Oil Market - As of the week ending December 12, US crude oil imports decreased by 64,000 barrels per day week-on-week to 6.525 million barrels per day, and exports increased by 655,000 barrels per day to 4.664 million barrels per day. The average net imports in 2025 decreased by 9.81% year-on-year. [72] - In November 2025, the US core CPI and overall CPI increased at a slower pace. The Fed cut interest rates three times in 2025, and the market has different expectations for interest rate cuts in 2026. [77] - In 2025, the cracking spreads of gasoline and diesel in Europe and the US first increased and then decreased. It is expected that the cracking spreads of refined oil products in Europe and the US will have greater elasticity in 2026. [81][86] - In 2025, US gasoline and diesel demand decreased year-on-year. EIA predicts that US oil consumption demand will decrease by 10,000 barrels per day to 20.58 million barrels per day in 2026. [92] - In 2025, the operating rate of US refineries was relatively high, and the crude oil input volume also increased. After the autumn maintenance, the operating rate and input volume recovered quickly. [97] - As of the week ending December 12, US crude oil inventories decreased, while gasoline and refined oil inventories increased. The strategic petroleum reserve increased for 21 consecutive weeks. [102][107][112] Global Demand and Inventory - In 2025, India's oil demand increased slightly, while Europe's decreased slightly. [117][122] - The IMF predicts that the global economic growth rate will slow down in 2026. Emerging markets and developing economies will also see a decline in growth rates, while developed economies will remain stable. [124] - Different institutions have different predictions for global crude oil demand growth in 2026. EIA, IEA, and OPEC have different views on the growth rates in 2025 and 2026. [128] - EIA predicts that the inventory of OECD commercial crude oil and other liquids will continue to increase until Q4 2026, and the global crude oil inventory has returned to the level since 2021. [133] Geopolitical Risks - Geopolitical events such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Israel-Iran conflict have affected the crude oil market, but most of the time, the impact on supply and transportation is not substantial, and the market returns to fundamental pricing after short-term disturbances. [137] - In 2025, the situation in Venezuela, the progress of Russia-Ukraine peace talks, and the possibility of Israel attacking Iran again are the main geopolitical factors affecting the crude oil market. [137]

Report Information - Report Title: Guantong Futures - Bitumen 2026 Annual Report - Reshaping of Bitumen Supply Pattern under Raw Material and Policy Pressure - Analyst: Su Miaoda - Release Date: December 29, 2025 - Report Institution: Guantong Futures Co., Ltd. 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - In 2025, the overall weighted center of bitumen prices moved down, mainly ranging from 2,900 to 3,900 yuan/ton. The bitumen/crude oil ratio increased, with a main range of 6.0 - 7.8. In 2026, bitumen prices are expected to decline initially and then rebound. It is recommended to go long on the bitumen crack spread after crude oil prices rise to a high level. Regarding the basis, it is expected to be strongly volatile in Q1 and weakly volatile in Q4 [4]. - In terms of cost, the overall supply of crude oil exceeds demand. Prices are expected to decline in Q1 and gradually bottom - out and recover in Q2. Bitumen prices mainly follow crude oil price fluctuations. Pay attention to the supply and demand of crude oil, especially the export of heavy oil from Russia and Venezuela [4]. - On the supply side, affected by raw materials and capacity clearance, bitumen production is expected to remain low, and the supply market will become more concentrated [4]. - In terms of demand, the focus of roads will shift to the construction, upgrading, and maintenance of rural roads. The real estate market is in the process of bottom - out recovery and cannot strongly support bitumen demand. However, as the first year of the 15th Five - Year Plan, policy support is expected to increase bitumen demand, with a cautious and optimistic outlook [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Bitumen Price Trends - In 2025, the weighted center of bitumen prices moved down, mainly between 2,900 - 3,900 yuan/ton, and the bitumen/crude oil ratio was in the range of 6.0 - 7.8. The price fluctuated throughout the year due to factors such as crude oil price changes, inventory levels, and geopolitical situations [4][6]. Bitumen Spot Prices - Since Q2 2025, the market price of bitumen in South China has declined more than in other regions due to new production capacity and price cuts by local refineries [12]. - In 2025, the basis in Shandong was high from March to July, then declined after August. In December, the basis of the bitumen 02 contract was around 0 yuan/ton, at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years. It is expected to be strongly volatile in Q1 2026 and weakly volatile in Q4 [20][21]. Bitumen持仓及仓单情况 - From January to October 2025, the net position of the top 20 bitumen traders fluctuated between long and short, and has been in a net short position since November. Warehouse receipts decreased to a low level, while factory warehouse receipts rose to a neutral level since mid - December [24]. Diluted Bitumen - Currently, the port inventory of diluted bitumen is at a low level. Due to the tense situation in Venezuela, the export of diluted bitumen to China may be restricted, resulting in a potential shortage of about 600,000 barrels per day of crude oil supply. Pay attention to the development of the Venezuelan situation and whether OPEC+ production increases can offset the impact [29]. Bitumen Capacity and Production - In 2024, bitumen production capacity decreased by 220 tons to 7.87 million tons. In 2025, it further decreased to 7.705 million tons. In 2026, backward production capacity in Northeast and Northwest China is expected to be phased out [34]. - Due to changes in fuel oil consumption deduction policies and import tariff rate increases, refineries without crude oil quotas are facing large losses, and market share is shifting to refineries with quotas [34]. Bitumen Production - In November 2025, bitumen production decreased by 13.63% month - on - month to 2.238 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.56%. From January to November, the cumulative production was 26.401 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.76% [42]. Bitumen Apparent Consumption and Shipment Volume - In October 2025, bitumen apparent consumption decreased by 2.92% month - on - month to 2.93 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.37%. From January to October, the cumulative apparent consumption was 26.7259 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.44% [47]. - As of the week of December 19, the national bitumen shipment volume decreased by 3.52% month - on - month to 244,500 tons, at a neutral level [47]. Bitumen开工率与利润 - As of the week of December 19, the bitumen operating rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points month - on - month to 27.6%, 0.9 percentage points lower than the same period last year, remaining at a low level in recent years. Currently, the spot profit of bitumen is still in a loss state [52]. Bitumen Capacity Distribution and Maintenance Devices - Shandong has the largest bitumen production capacity, accounting for 31.5%. Other regions such as East China (excluding Shandong), North China, and South China each account for more than 10% [57]. - Many enterprises have shut down or switched production due to losses in bitumen production margins [57]. Bitumen Import and Export - From January to November 2025, the cumulative bitumen import was 3.547 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.3%. The cumulative export was 584,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 38.7%. The net import is at a low level [60]. Bitumen Downstream - Road bitumen accounts for more than 70% of bitumen consumption, but its consumption share is gradually decreasing. In 2025, the fixed - asset investment in road transportation decreased year - on - year [64]. - Bitumen waterproofing membranes account for 14% of bitumen downstream demand. Due to the continuous decline in real - estate new construction and environmental protection pressure, the consumption volume and share have slightly decreased [70]. - The growth rate of fixed - asset investment in infrastructure has been declining, and traditional infrastructure is difficult to maintain high - speed growth [74]. - The focus of road construction will shift to rural roads, which cannot strongly support bitumen demand. The shortage of funds restricts the start of road bitumen projects [80]. - In November 2025, the new social financing increased by 248.85 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 15.97 billion yuan. The scissors gap between M1 and M2 widened for two consecutive months [84]. - From January to October 2025, local government new special bonds totaled 3.9805 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.75%. Since August, bond issuance has slowed down, and the proportion flowing into road construction has decreased, restricting bitumen demand [88]. - As of December 19, the operating rates of road - modified bitumen, waterproofing membranes, and shoe - material - modified bitumen in the bitumen downstream were 24.00%, 27.00%, and 22.14% respectively, lower than the six - year average [95]. Bitumen Inventory - In 2025, both bitumen factory and social inventories showed a trend of rising first and then falling. As of the week of December 19, the factory inventory was 625,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.42% and a year - on - year increase of 1.30%. The social inventory was 1.029 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.68% and a year - on - year increase of 16.27% [100].

冠通期货-宏观2026年报 --美国中期选举，中国十五五开局 研究咨询部： 王 静 执业资格证号：F0235424/Z0000771 报告时间： 2025年12月29日 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 分析师王静：F0235424/Z0000771 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 分析师王静：F0235424/Z0000771 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 核心观点 回顾2025年，全球经济在动荡中前行，海外特朗普上任，关税贸易大棒震惊全球，美联储重启降息催生出流动性牛市；国内，信心的重塑驱动 中国资产之重估，反内卷点燃新一轮供给侧改革，共同构成了影响全球经济走向的两大主线。当下，国际上特朗普交易的余威犹存，但其边际影响 逐步减弱，市场关注点逐步转向美国财政的可持续性与中期选举后政策路径的再校准。国内的宏观政策持续发力，以中央加杠杆为核心，托底经济、 化解风险，并在"十五五"开局之年，将绿色转型与产业升级作为推动高质量发展的核心抓手。 展望2026年，全球政治周期与科技周期的共振料将支撑风险资产，能源转型与AI投资两大浪潮则将重塑大宗商品格局。 美国视角，中期选举成 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - In 2025, the high - end supply of urea suppressed its price increase, domestic demand determined the support level, and exports provided the driving force. The price showed a trend of rising first, then falling, and rising slightly at the end of the year. In 2026, due to new capacity, the supply side will still be under pressure. Exports are expected to continue to be released in the form of quotas. Agricultural demand may be advanced in the first half of the year, and the price is expected to be strong in the first half and decline in the second half, with an overall upward shift in the center of gravity [7]. - On the supply side, 5.87 million tons of new urea production capacity was put into operation in China in 2025, and 7.78 million tons are expected to be put into operation in 2026. Most of the new capacity is coal - based, and the coal - based production accounts for a high proportion. The total urea production from January to November 2025 was 65.057 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.82%. The coal price is expected to rise moderately in 2026, and attention should be paid to its impact on the cost support of urea [7]. - On the demand side, in terms of agricultural demand, the purchase of urea is expected to be advanced in 2026, and the total agricultural demand will maintain a year - on - year increase. The compound fertilizer factory has a high inventory, and raw material procurement is expected to be cautious. Other industrial demands related to real estate are expected to increase slightly. In terms of exports, the policy in 2026 is expected to be mainly relaxed, but in the first - half agricultural peak season, ensuring supply and stabilizing prices will be the main logic, and exports will be appropriately and limitedly liberalized [7]. 3. Summary by Directory Urea Market Review - In 2025, the urea market was affected by supply, domestic demand, and export news. The price showed a trend of rising first and then falling, with multiple pulse - like increases driven by export news. For example, in January, the market was weak due to insufficient domestic demand but rebounded due to export news; in February, the price rose due to the expectation of the spring plowing season; in May, the price declined due to the lower - than - expected export quota [12]. Urea Spot Price Trend - In 2025, the urea spot price showed a trend of rising first and then falling, and was lower than the previous year due to supply pressure. The Shandong spot price ranged from 1,550 yuan/ton to 1,900 yuan/ton. In 2026, if there is no significant change in export policy, the price is expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level [20]. Basis - The urea basis usually strengthens during the agricultural demand peak season and the reserve season and weakens during the off - season. In 2025, the annual fluctuation range was relatively small. Before June, the basis continued to strengthen, and then entered the agricultural off - season. The basis strengthened until the futures were at a premium, providing hedging opportunities for enterprises. During the winter storage period, the basis is expected to continue to strengthen, and attention should be paid to the entry opportunities of hedging goods [28]. Contango Structure - The contango structure of urea (near - term weak, long - term strong) is gradually flattening. Since the third quarter of 2025, the price of the 01 contract has continued to strengthen, and the 1 - 5 spread has weakened. With the arrival of the agricultural peak season in the coming year, the 5 - 9 spread is expected to gradually strengthen, and attention should be paid to positive spread arbitrage opportunities [33]. Urea Trading and Position - In 2025, the urea delivery volume increased significantly. From January to November, the delivery volume reached 25,700 lots, the highest in the same period in history. The addition of large - granular urea as an alternative delivery product deepened the service of futures to the real economy and facilitated the participation of upstream and downstream enterprises in delivery and futures business [39]. Supply Analysis Urea Production Capacity Investment - In 2025, 5.87 million tons of new urea production capacity was put into operation in China, and 7.78 million tons are expected to be put into operation in 2026. In the next five years, global new urea production capacity will mainly be concentrated in Latin America, Brazil, the United States, and India, with Australia adding 2 million tons [46]. Capacity Analysis - About 84% of the total production capacity has been in operation for less than 20 years. In recent years, most of the new production capacity uses the coal - water slurry process, and the fixed - bed and fluidized - bed processes are gradually being phased out. The anti - involution policy has promoted the optimization and technological upgrading of production capacity [54]. High - level Annual Production - From January to November 2025, the total urea production was 65.057 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.82%, and the capacity utilization rate was 84.64%, a year - on - year increase of 2.42%. The daily production was mostly around 190,000 - 200,000 tons. It is expected that the production capacity will resume in early 2026, increasing production [59]. Increasing Proportion of Coal - based Production - Seasonally, gas - based plants may reduce production in winter due to gas supply limitations, but the impact may be weakened by the increasing proportion of coal - based production. In 2025, the capacity utilization rate of gas - based plants was significantly lower than the previous year, while coal - based plants had more new investments and profits, with coal - based production accounting for about 76% [64][65]. Coal Price Trend - The production of coal - based urea is shifting from traditional high - quality anthracite to modern large - scale gasification using cheap lignite. The coal price in 2025 first decreased and then increased, and is expected to rise moderately in 2026 due to stricter policy regulation in the coking industry [72]. Natural Gas Price Trend - In 2025, the natural gas price fluctuated moderately and remained low and stable for two consecutive years due to sufficient supply and weak demand. The domestic natural gas production increased steadily, while the consumption growth rate slowed down [77]. Decent Profit of Coal - water Slurry Process - As of December 19, 2025, the profits of fixed - bed and gas - based urea production were negative, while the coal - water slurry process still had profits, but it was close to the cost line in November. The cost advantage of the coal - water slurry process will further expand the losses of fixed - bed and gas - based plants [81]. Unobvious Cost Support - Historically, the Shandong urea market price was initially benchmarked against the fixed - bed cost and later against the coal - water slurry cost. In 2025, the cost line support was weak, and the urea price mainly depended on fundamentals and export policies. With the expected increase in coal prices in 2026, attention should be paid to the cost support of urea [86]. Demand Analysis Overall Demand - Agricultural demand and compound fertilizer demand account for about 75% of the total urea demand [92]. Agricultural Demand - Urea agricultural demand is mainly concentrated in the first half of the year, with 4 - 5 months being the peak season. In 2025, due to the recovery of grain prices and low urea prices, the procurement of urea was advanced and dispersed. It is expected that the procurement will also be advanced in 2026. During the 14th Five - Year Plan period, the total agricultural demand will maintain a year - on - year increase due to the popularization of high - standard farmland and related technologies [97][99]. Compound Fertilizer Demand - In 2025, the production capacity of compound fertilizer plants continued to increase, and new capacity was characterized by technological upgrading and the expansion of leading enterprises. The production of compound fertilizers first decreased and then increased. In 2025, the cost of compound fertilizers was high, the price - difference with urea widened, and the demand for urea by compound fertilizer plants was advanced. It is expected that the demand will still be advanced in 2026 [106][121]. Real Estate - related Demand - In 2025, the real estate market was in a downturn, but the central government's economic work conference set the tone to stabilize the real estate market. It is expected that the real estate market will stop falling and stabilize in 2026 [129]. Melamine Demand - From January to November 2025, the melamine production decreased. Its demand for urea has obvious seasonal characteristics and is closely related to the real estate market. The export growth of melamine has slowed down, but China is still the world's largest producer and exporter [134]. Vehicle Urea Demand - With the advancement of emission standards, the demand for vehicle urea is increasing. Although the production and sales of diesel vehicles have declined, diesel trucks still dominate the market, and the demand for vehicle urea remains strong [139]. Thermal Power Denitrification Demand - With the replacement of new energy, the proportion of thermal power is gradually decreasing, and the demand for urea in thermal power denitrification has limited growth and is mainly stable [146]. Inventory - In 2025, the urea inventory was at a high level. Affected by the high - level supply and the advance of demand, the inventory decreased until April and then increased until December. With the support of winter storage and exports, the inventory began to decrease. It is expected that the inventory in 2026 will also start at a high level and show a seasonal "V" - shaped trend [151]. Export - In 2025, 4 batches of export quotas totaling about 4.6 million tons were issued, which repeatedly boosted the market but also caused price corrections after the release of positive news. It is expected that the export policy in 2026 will be mainly relaxed, and exports will be appropriately liberalized to solve the problem of oversupply during the non - agricultural peak season. The participation in Indian tenders has been low in recent years, and the export direction has shifted to Latin America and South America [155][157][158]. International Urea - In 2025, international urea prices were affected by gas restrictions in the Middle East and Indian tenders. There was a large price - difference between the domestic Shandong market price and the export price, and exports had large profits. The large - scale exports from China also put some pressure on international urea prices [163].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views - In 2025, PVC prices trended downward in a volatile manner. In 2026, demand is expected to improve slowly, with real - estate data showing a slower decline year - on - year. Indian demand and exports are likely to increase. Supply expansion will slow down, and spring maintenance may reduce supply pressure. Overall, PVC prices are expected to bottom out in a volatile way, first falling and then rising. Pay attention to changes in the operating rate. When the operating rate decreases or macro - policies are released, consider going long. If macro - policies are ineffective, PVC futures prices are expected to fall back. Spot enterprises can seize opportunities when the basis is strong [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 PVC Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures prices**: In 2025, PVC futures prices were affected by factors such as supply, downstream demand, international policies and conflicts. They fell overall, with small rebounds in May and 6 - 7 months, and hit a record low in mid - December before rebounding [3][5]. - **Spot prices**: PVC spot prices followed the futures prices, with a high correlation coefficient of 0.981 between PVC futures and East China spot prices. In 2025, the basis and inter - month spreads were mostly negative, especially during the main contract change. The 01 contract basis rose to a neutral level in December, but the 05 contract basis dropped to a low level [12]. 3.2 PVC Upstream - **Calcium carbide**: In 2025, calcium carbide prices first decreased and then increased, with the overall price center shifting down. The profit of calcium carbide in Wuhai was mostly negative, but production increased by 13% from January to November. It is expected to be in a state of oversupply in 2026 [24]. - **Semi - coke**: Semi - coke prices also first decreased and then increased in 2025, mostly at the lowest level in recent years. The operating rate first decreased and then increased, and the profit was mostly in a loss state [24]. - **Caustic soda**: From January to November 2025, caustic soda production increased by 4.8% year - on - year to 42.326 million tons. Prices rose at the beginning of the year and then fell due to factors such as alumina production expectations and cost changes [25]. - **Profit**: In 2025, the external calcium carbide method and ethylene method were always in a loss state, but the caustic soda profit was good. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali was mostly profitable. However, since the fourth quarter, the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali has been declining, and some enterprises have fallen into losses [28]. 3.3 PVC Production, Capacity and Maintenance - **Production**: In November 2025, PVC production was 2.0793 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.29% and a year - on - year increase of 5.62%. From January to November, the cumulative production increased by 4.38% year - on - year to 22.3242 million tons [35]. - **Capacity**: In 2025, the actual PVC capacity increased by 2.08 million tons to 29.62 million tons, with a growth rate of 7.55%. In 2026, only the 300,000 - ton/year new capacity of Zhejiang Jiaxing Jiahua will be put into production, and the capacity expansion will slow down significantly [47]. - **Maintenance**: In 2025, there were few long - term shutdown and maintenance devices. Pay attention to whether the number of maintenance devices will increase significantly under the pressure of comprehensive chlor - alkali profit [49]. 3.4 PVC Import and Export - **Import**: In November 2025, China's PVC import volume was 15,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.70% and a month - on - month increase of 44.15%. From January to November, the cumulative import volume was 202,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.46% [62]. - **Export**: In November 2025, the export volume was 275,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 29.64% and a month - on - month decrease of 11.78%. From January to November, the cumulative export volume was 3.5091 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 47.17%. India is the largest export destination, and the abolition of BIS certification and anti - dumping tax is beneficial to exports [62][67]. 3.5 Real - Estate Data - In 2025, from January to November, real - estate development investment decreased by 15.9% year - on - year, the sales area decreased by 7.8%, the sales volume decreased by 11.1%, the new construction area decreased by 20.5%, the construction area decreased by 9%, and the completion area decreased by 18.0%. In 2026, it is expected that policies will continue to support the real - estate market, but it will take time to strongly support PVC [71][74][75]. 3.6 PVC Downstream - **Operating rate**: The overall downstream operating rate of PVC was weak in 2025, especially from April to September. As of the week of December 19, it decreased by 3.50 percentage points to 45.39%. PVC film had a relatively high operating rate of about 70%, while pipes and profiles had a lower operating rate of about 40% [81][89]. - **Exports of floor coverings**: From January to November 2025, the cumulative export of PVC floor coverings was 380,380 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.88%. Exports are expected to remain at a low level due to US tariffs, but the improvement of US sales needs attention [90]. 3.7 PVC Inventory - **Factory inventory**: As of the week of December 19, 2025, the factory inventory decreased by 4.59% month - on - month to 328,500 tons, an increase of 14.86% compared with the same period last year, and an increase of 22.35% compared with the beginning of the year [92]. - **Social inventory**: After seasonal inventory accumulation after the Spring Festival, the social inventory decreased from mid - March and then increased continuously from July. As of the week of December 19, it decreased by 0.25% month - on - month to 1.0566 million tons, an increase of 28.58% compared with the same period last year and an increase of 33.74% compared with the beginning of the year. High inventory will limit the rebound of PVC prices [97].