1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings were provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel - The steel supply - demand gap is narrowing. Although demand shows seasonal improvement, it is still insufficient during the peak season. Considering high - level exports, seasonal demand improvement, and a favorable macro - environment, steel prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillating trend. Suggested to try long positions with light positions and hold short positions on the January hot - rolled coil and rebar spread [1]. Iron Ore - The iron ore futures showed an oscillating downward trend last week. The supply - demand fundamentals improved slightly, but it was still insufficient during the peak season. The raw materials were stronger than the finished products. It is expected that the molten iron output will remain at a relatively high level in October, but there is a risk of port inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to view the single - side position as oscillating, short the iron ore 2601 contract at high prices, and conduct an arbitrage of long iron ore and short coking coal [4]. Coke and Coking Coal - Coke futures showed an oscillating downward trend last week. Spot prices are expected to gradually rebound. The supply side has a slight decline in production, while the demand side has support. The overall inventory is slightly increasing. It is recommended to short the coke 2601 contract at high prices and conduct an arbitrage of long iron ore and short coke [6]. - Coking coal futures also showed an oscillating downward trend last week. The domestic coking coal market is relatively strong. After the recent significant restocking, the downstream restocking demand may decline, and coking coal prices may peak and fall. It is recommended to short the coking coal 2601 contract at high prices and conduct an arbitrage of long iron ore and short coking coal [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices in most regions decreased. All rebar and hot - rolled coil futures contracts dropped to 0 [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet prices decreased by 20 yuan/ton, while slab prices remained unchanged. The profits of most steel products decreased [1]. Production - The daily average molten iron output increased by 0.4%. The output of five major steel products increased by 1.1%. Rebar production remained unchanged, with electric - furnace output decreasing by 15% and converter output increasing by 2.2%. Hot - rolled coil output decreased by 0.7% [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 0.6%, rebar inventory decreased by 2.1%, and hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 0.7% [1]. Transaction and Demand - Building material trading volume increased by 12.1%. The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 2.8%, rebar apparent demand increased by 5.0%, and hot - rolled coil apparent demand remained unchanged [1]. Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore types decreased, and the basis of the 01 contract for most types increased. The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 7.3%, the 9 - 1 spread increased by 2.5%, and the 1 - 5 spread increased by 2.5% [4]. Supply - The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports increased by 13.2%, and the global weekly shipping volume decreased by 6.9%. The monthly national import volume increased by 0.6% [4]. Demand - The weekly average daily molten iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.6%. The weekly average daily port clearance volume decreased by 0.8%. The monthly national pig iron and crude steel output decreased by 1.4% and 2.9% respectively [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 0.5%, the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 4.6%, and the inventory available days of 64 steel mills increased by 9.1% [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - For coking coal, the prices of some types remained unchanged, while the prices of futures contracts decreased. The coking coal basis increased. For coke, the prices of some types decreased, and the prices of futures contracts also decreased. The coke basis increased [6]. Profit - The weekly sample coal mine profit decreased, while the weekly coking profit increased by 7.4% [6]. Supply - Coke production remained unchanged, and the production of some coking coal mines increased. The overall coking coal supply showed an upward trend [6]. Demand - The molten iron output increased, and the demand for coke and coking coal showed an upward trend [6]. Inventory - The overall coke inventory increased slightly, with coking plants and ports reducing inventory and steel mills increasing inventory. The overall coking coal inventory also increased slightly, with mines and ports reducing inventory and other links increasing inventory [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Polyolefins rebounded under policy impetus and then traded based on the weak fundamental reality [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Polyolefin Q3 2025 Review - OPEC+ production increase expectations compressed the cost side, and new PP plant launches led to weak polyolefin performance. Weak basis and high warehouse receipts suppressed the market, but anti - involution expectations drove a rebound in late July [5] 3.2 Polyolefin 01 Contract New Capacity - **PE New Capacity**: Multiple plants were put into operation in 2025, with different expected increments for different contracts. For example, the 05 - contract expected increment was 258, and the 09 - contract expected increment was 210. Some projects were postponed, like Shandong New Era's project to Q1 2026 [7] - **PP New Capacity**: Many plants were also put into operation in 2025. The 05 - contract expected increment was 418, and the 09 - contract expected increment was 208. Attention should be paid to the 400,000 - ton new capacity of Guangxi Petrochemical [7] 3.3 PE Price Data - **Quarterly Data**: From August 1 to September 26, 2025, prices of various PE products changed. For example, linear North China prices decreased by 100 - 120, and upstream prices and profit margins also had corresponding changes [9] - **Weekly Data**: From September 19 to 26, 2025, prices and related indicators such as basis, monthly spreads, and profit margins of PE also changed [11] 3.4 PP Price Data - **Quarterly Data**: From August 1 to September 26, 2025, prices of PP products like拉丝 decreased, and basis, monthly spreads, and profit margins also changed significantly [13] - **Weekly Data**: From September 19 to 26, 2025, PP prices and related indicators showed certain fluctuations [15] 3.5 Olefin Spreads - **Basis**: The basis was weak, reflecting relatively large spot pressure [16][17] - **Monthly Spreads**: Monthly spreads showed weak oscillations [22] - **Non - standard Ratios**: The HD - LL spread weakened, and when HD injection - LL > 300, the probability of FD switching to HD production increased [29] 3.6 PE Supply - Maintenance gradually returned, and production and capacity utilization showed corresponding trends [36] 3.7 PP Supply - Recently, there were more unplanned maintenance, leading to a slight decline in production [43] 3.8 PE Profit - The weighted profit weakened [56] 3.9 PP Profit - The valuation was low [63] 3.10 PE Inventory - Inventory was being reduced [70] 3.11 PP Inventory - Upstream inventory was significantly reduced [77] 3.12 Inventory Warehouse Receipts - Warehouse receipt registration volume was at a high level year - on - year, and high warehouse receipts and a continuously weak basis reflected large spot pressure [84][85] 3.13 Global Spreads - The global ratio was low. China's PE ratio weakened, and PP exports declined [88][89] 3.14 Imports and Exports - **PE**: In 2025, the cumulative import volume was 8.0314 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.48%. July imports were expected to be low. - **PP**: The import volume in a certain period was 282,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16.07%. Imports from September to October were expected to rise slightly [96] 3.15 PE Demand - Demand seasonally recovered but was weak year - on - year. Raw material inventory days were lower year - on - year [97][104] 3.16 PP Demand - Downstream demand was differentiated, with modified PP demand slightly increasing due to auto and home appliance policies. However, peak - season stocking did not show significant growth [111][118] 3.17 Downstream Profits - Downstream profits were recovering, and the year - on - year profit was neutral [126] 3.18 Downstream Demand - The Q2 total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.4% year - on - year, accelerating from Q1. In June, the plastics product export value increased by 7.2% year - on - year [133] 3.19 New Capacity Tracking - **PE New Capacity**: ExxonMobil's 500,000 - ton/year LDPE plant was planned to be put into operation in September, and Guangxi Petrochemical was planned to start trial operation in September and be officially put into operation in mid - October. Shandong New Era was expected to start in Q1 2026 [143] - **PP New Capacity**: Daxie Petrochemical's second - phase 2 was expected to be put into operation in mid - September, and other plants also had their respective schedules [145]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Caustic Soda**: In Q3, caustic soda showed a wide - range oscillation. After the non - aluminum restocking ended, the demand was mainly for rigid needs. The main downstream, alumina, had high inventory and low restocking willingness. However, due to the planned alumina capacity expansion in Q1 2025, there might be concentrated restocking in Q4 2024, limiting the downside space of caustic soda. The downstream restocking rhythm needs to be tracked [3]. - **PVC**: In Q3, the PVC market was in a continuous decline. The supply was at a high level with an obvious surplus, and the demand in the peak season was weak. Although exports alleviated some of the surplus pressure, the cost of raw materials provided bottom - level support. In Q4, the cost support should be focused on, and the downside space during the peak season is limited. Attention should be paid to the downstream demand performance [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Caustic Soda - **Price and Market Dynamics**: The price of caustic soda fluctuated widely in Q3. Factors such as macro - policies, supply - demand changes in the main production areas, and the price of liquid chlorine affected the price. The market was worried about the subsequent supply return and the weakening of downstream demand [9]. - **Supply**: The industry's operating rate declined slightly, and Shandong's caustic soda plants continued to accumulate inventory in Q3. As of September 24, the inventory of 32% liquid caustic soda in expanded sample enterprises in East China and Shandong increased compared with September 17 [22][28]. - **Downstream Demand** - **Alumina**: From the end of 2024 to 2025, the planned alumina capacity to be put into production is 12.3 million tons (including 2 million tons of replacement), with an estimated annual production increase of about 6%. The new alumina projects will increase the demand for caustic soda by about 800,000 tons per year. In Q4 2024, there may be restocking due to the planned capacity expansion in Q1 2025 [30][33]. - **Non - aluminum**: The printing and dyeing operating rate increased seasonally, but the pre - holiday restocking has ended [52]. - **Export**: The export volume decreased in August, but the estimated export profit increased again in September [58]. PVC - **Price and Market Dynamics**: In Q3, the PVC futures and spot prices both declined. The supply - demand relationship lacked positive drivers, and the macro - atmosphere was poor, leading to a continuous decline in the market [65]. - **Profit**: The industry's profit declined quarter - on - quarter in Q3, with both the ethylene - based and calcium - carbide - based production methods facing profit pressure [71]. - **Supply**: The production volume was high in Q3, and the overall operating rate decreased recently. Although there were many maintenance enterprises this week, some have gradually resumed production [81][87]. - **Downstream Demand** - **Profiles and Pipes**: The two major downstream industries of PVC, profiles and pipes, faced great pressure, and the demand was weak. The real - estate industry, with the goal of "reducing inventory and stabilizing prices", continued to have a negative impact on demand [94]. - **Real - Estate Data**: The real - estate industry is still in the bottom - building cycle, with indicators such as housing sales price index, land transaction area, and new construction area showing weak performance [95]. - **Inventory**: The inventory increased in Q3, and the total inventory was at the highest level in recent years compared with the same period [102]. - **External Market and Export**: In August 2025, the PVC import volume decreased, and the export volume decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. The export window to Southeast Asia and India has opened [114][120].

Report on Glass and Soda Ash 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The soda ash market has a fundamental surplus problem. Although the inventory of manufacturers has decreased recently, the inventory has actually been transferred to the middle and lower reaches, and the trade inventory continues to rise. In the medium - term, the demand for soda ash will continue the previous rigid - demand pattern, and the market may face further pressure without actual production capacity withdrawal or load reduction. The overall supply - demand pattern is bearish, and it is recommended to operate with a short - selling idea [1]. - The glass market has seen rumors about glass enterprises' meetings pushing up the market sentiment. The spot market transaction has become stronger before the festival, but the mid - stream inventory in some areas remains high. In the long - term, the real estate cycle is at the bottom, and the industry needs to clear production capacity to solve the over - supply dilemma [1]. 3. Summary by Directory Glass - related prices and spreads -华北报价 rose from 1210 to 1220, an increase of 0.83%;华东报价 rose from 1290 to 1320, an increase of 2.33%;华中 and华南 quotes remained unchanged. The prices of glass 2505 and 2509 decreased, and the 05 basis increased by 12.14% [1]. Soda ash - related prices and spreads -华北,华东,华中, and西北 quotes remained unchanged. The prices of soda ash 2505 and 2509 decreased, and the 05 basis increased by 19.23% [1]. Supply - The soda ash operating rate decreased from 87.29% to 85.53%, a decrease of 2.02%; the weekly soda ash output decreased from 76.11 tons to 74.57 tons, a decrease of 2.02%. The float glass daily melting volume decreased by 0.47%, and the photovoltaic daily melting volume remained unchanged [1]. Inventory - The glass factory inventory decreased by 1.10%, the soda ash factory inventory decreased by 2.33%, and the soda ash delivery warehouse inventory increased by 10.69%. The glass factory's soda ash inventory days remained unchanged [1]. Real estate data - The new - construction area increased by 0.09%, the construction area decreased by 2.43%, the completion area decreased by 0.03%, and the sales area decreased by 6.50% [1]. Report on Rubber Industry 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Before the holiday, the natural rubber market has no obvious long - or short - side contradictions. Due to capital risk - aversion, the trading atmosphere is relatively cautious, and the rubber price may fluctuate and consolidate. In the future, the supply may be affected by weather conditions such as typhoons and the possible occurrence of La Nina phenomenon. The demand faces export pressure, and the domestic sales pressure may increase. It is expected that the short - term rubber price will fluctuate weakly, with the 01 contract ranging from 15,000 to 16,500 [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Spot prices and basis - The price of Yunnan state - owned standard rubber decreased by 0.34%, the price of Thai standard mixed rubber remained unchanged, the price of cup rubber increased by 0.20%, and the price of glue decreased by 0.90%. The prices of some raw materials in Hainan decreased [3]. Monthly spreads - The 9 - 1 spread increased by 66.67%, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 36.36%, and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 25.00% [3]. Fundamental data - In July, the rubber production in Thailand, Indonesia, and India changed, with Thailand increasing by 1.61%, Indonesia increasing by 12.09%, and India decreasing by 2.17%. The production in China decreased slightly. The weekly operating rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires changed slightly, the domestic tire production in August increased by 9.10%, and the tire export quantity decreased by 5.46%. The total import quantity of natural rubber in July increased by 2.47%, and the import of natural and synthetic rubber in August increased by 4.76% [3]. Inventory changes - The bonded area inventory decreased by 0.95%, the Shanghai Futures Exchange factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber decreased by 3.07%. The inbound and outbound rates of dry rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general - trade warehouses changed [3]. Report on Logs 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The log market is in a volatile pattern, with a relatively low trading volume. As the "Golden September and Silver October" traditional peak season approaches, it is necessary to observe whether the shipment volume improves significantly. Currently, the daily average shipment volume has not exceeded 70,000 cubic meters. Due to the poor willingness of buyers to take delivery and the suppression of the selling hedging disk on the market, there is a lack of strong upward momentum. It is expected that the market will fluctuate within a narrow range in the short - term [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures and spot prices - The prices of some log futures contracts fluctuated. The prices of spot logs in ports such as Rizhao and Taicang remained unchanged, and the foreign - market quotes also remained unchanged [4]. Cost: Import cost calculation - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate increased slightly, and the import theoretical cost increased slightly [4]. Supply: Monthly - The port shipping volume decreased by 3.87%, and the number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased by 6.38% [4]. Inventory: Main ports (weekly) - The total inventory of coniferous logs in China decreased by 3.31%, with the inventory in Shandong and Jiangsu also decreasing [4]. Demand: Daily average outbound volume (weekly) - The daily average outbound volume of logs in China decreased by 5%, with the volume in Shandong decreasing by 11% and that in Jiangsu increasing by 4% [4]. Report on Industrial Silicon 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - From a fundamental perspective, the supply - demand balance of industrial silicon will gradually become looser from September to October. The supply is expected to reach a high level in October, and then narrow in November. The increase in the cost of the flat - dry season in the southwest region brings positive sentiment to the market. In the short - term, the upward driving force of industrial silicon is insufficient, and the silicon price may turn to fluctuate, with the main price range between 8,000 and 9,500 yuan per ton [5]. 3. Summary by Directory Spot prices and basis of the main contract - The prices of some industrial silicon products remained unchanged, and the basis of some products changed. For example, the basis of (SI4210 benchmark) increased by 61.29% [5]. Monthly spreads - The spreads between some contracts changed, such as the 2510 - 2511 spread decreasing by 100.00% [5]. Fundamental data (monthly) - The national and regional industrial silicon productions increased, with the national production increasing by 14.01%. The productions of organic silicon DMC, polysilicon increased, while the production of recycled aluminum alloy decreased. The industrial silicon export volume increased by 3.56% [5]. Inventory changes - The inventory in Xinjiang decreased by 11.63%, the inventory in Yunnan increased by 2.91%, and the social inventory remained unchanged [5]. Report on Polysilicon 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - On the fundamental side, the supply - side regulation effect is less than expected, and the industry's over - capacity pattern remains unchanged. The inventory of downstream components is high, and the price has loosened. It is expected that the polysilicon price will mainly fluctuate within a range of 48,000 - 53,000 yuan per ton before the National Day holiday. In the future, it is necessary to pay attention to national - level policies on capacity clearance and industry storage, the actual operating rate and production - reduction implementation of polysilicon enterprises, and the inventory digestion progress and new order demand of downstream photovoltaic component factories [6]. 3. Summary by Directory Spot prices and basis - The average prices of some polysilicon products remained unchanged, and the N - type material basis decreased by 8.44% [6]. Futures prices and monthly spreads - The main contract price increased by 0.19%, and the spreads between some contracts changed, such as the current - month - to - first - continuous spread decreasing by 130.00% [6]. Fundamental data (weekly) - The silicon wafer production decreased by 1.01%, and the polysilicon production increased by 0.32% [6]. Fundamental data (monthly) - The polysilicon production increased by 23.31%, the import volume decreased by 9.63%, the export volume increased by 40.12%, and the net export volume increased by 94.25%. The silicon wafer production, import volume, export volume, and net export volume all increased [6]. Inventory changes - The polysilicon inventory increased by 10.78%, and the silicon wafer inventory decreased by 3.79% [6].

Report Information - Report title: All-variety Spread Daily Report [3] - Date: September 29, 2025 [3] Core Content Black Series - **Silicon Manganese (SM601)**: The futures price is 5970, the spot reference price is 5848, the basis is 122, the basis rate is 2.09%, and the historical quantile is 48.00% [1] - **Rebar (RB2601)**: The futures price is 3260, the spot reference price is 3114, the basis is 146, the basis rate is 4.69%, and the historical quantile is 50% [1] - **Hot Rolled Coil (HC2601)**: The futures price is 6.6796 (the unit seems abnormal), the spot reference price is 3370, the basis is 53, the basis rate is 1.72%, and the historical quantile is 42.40% [1] - **Iron Ore (I2601)**: The futures price is 843, the spot reference price is the converted price of 62.5% Brazilian mixed powder (BRBF) from Vale at Rizhao Port, the basis is 790, the basis rate is 44.20%, and the historical quantile is 6.6796 (the unit seems abnormal) [1] - **Coke (J2601)**: The futures price is 1693, the spot reference price is the converted price of quasi - first - class metallurgical coke A13 S0.7.CSR60.MT7 at Rizhao Port, the basis is - 79, the basis rate is - 4.57%, and the historical quantile is 22.55% [1] - **Coking Coal (JM2601)**: The futures price is 1197, the spot reference price is the converted price of S13 G75 main coking coal (Meng 5) at Shaheyi, the basis is - 32, the basis rate is - 2.63%, and the historical quantile is 18.30% [1] - **Silicon Iron (SF511)**: The futures price is 5758, the spot reference price is 5660, the basis is 98, the basis rate is 1.73%, and the historical quantile is 69.00% [6] Non - ferrous Series - **Copper (CU2511)**: The futures price is 82470, the spot reference price is SNN J with energy - using regulations, the basis is - 3012, the basis rate is - 3.65% (calculated), and the historical quantile is 44.37% [1] - **Aluminum (AL2511)**: The futures price is 20745, the spot reference price is SMM A00 aluminum average price, the basis is 25, the basis rate is 0.12%, and the historical quantile is 64.79% [1] - **Alumina (AO2601)**: The futures price is 2901, the spot reference price is SMM alumina index average price, the basis is - 90, the basis rate is - 3.10% (calculated), and the historical quantile is 52.64% [1] - **Zinc (ZN2511)**: The futures price is 21880, the spot reference price is SMM 1 zinc average price, the basis is - 60, the basis rate is - 0.27% (calculated), and the historical quantile is 32.70% [1] - **Tin (SN2511)**: The futures price is 274070, the spot reference price is SMM 1 tin average price, the basis is - 370, the basis rate is - 0.14%, and the historical quantile is 36.45% [1] - **Nickel (NI2511)**: The futures price is 195, the spot reference price is SMM 1 imported nickel average price, the basis is 121380 - 195 = 121185 (calculated), the basis rate is a very large value (calculated), and the historical quantile is 67.29% [1] - **Stainless Steel (SS2511)**: The futures price is 13320, the spot reference price is 304/2B: 2*1240*C: Wuxi Hongwang (including trimming fee), the basis is - 480, the basis rate is - 3.60% (calculated), and the historical quantile is 3.74% [1] - **Lithium Carbonate (LC2511)**: The futures price is 720, the spot reference price is SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price, the basis is 73600 - 720 = 72880 (calculated), the basis rate is a very large value (calculated), and the historical quantile is 0.99% [1] - **Industrial Silicon (SI2511)**: The futures price is 8960, the spot reference price is SMM East China oxygen - containing SI5530 average price, the basis is 540, the basis rate is 6.03%, and the historical quantile is 37.07% [1] Precious Metals Series - **Gold (AU2512)**: The futures price is 6758, the spot reference price is Shanghai Gold Exchange gold spot AU (T + D), the basis is - 3.2, the basis rate is - 0.37%, and the historical quantile is 19.60% [1] - **Silver (AG2512)**: The futures price is 10551.0, the spot reference price is Shanghai Gold Exchange silver spot AG (T + D), the basis is - 81.0, the basis rate is - 0.76%, and the historical quantile is not given [1] Agricultural Products Series - **Soybean Meal (M2601)**: The futures price is 2937.0, the spot reference price is the ex - factory price of ordinary soybean meal in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu, the basis is - 47.0, the basis rate is - 1.60%, and the historical quantile is 29.30% [1] - **Soybean Oil (Y2601)**: The futures price is 8162.0, the spot reference price is the ex - factory price of fourth - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu, the basis is 158.0, the basis rate is 1.94%, and the historical quantile is 31.50% [1] - **Palm Oil (P2601)**: The futures price is 9180, the spot reference price is the delivery price of palm oil at Huangpu Port, the basis is - 56.0, the basis rate is - 0.61%, and the historical quantile is 8.90% [1] - **Rapeseed Meal (RM601)**: The futures price is 2405.0, the spot reference price is the ex - factory price of ordinary rapeseed meal in Zhanjiang, Guangdong, the basis is 125.0, the basis rate is 5.20%, and the historical quantile is 67.50% [1] - **Rapeseed Oil (OI601)**: The futures price is 10162.0, the spot reference price is the ex - factory price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Nantong, Jiangsu, the basis is 238.0, the basis rate is 2.34%, and the historical quantile is 75.10% [1] - **Corn (C2511)**: The futures price is 2178.0, the spot reference price is the f.o.b. price of corn at Xuzhou Port, the basis is 102.0, the basis rate is 4.68%, and the historical quantile is 94.00% [1] - **Corn Starch (CS2511)**: The futures price is 2480.0, the spot reference price is the ex - factory price of corn starch in Changchun, Jilin, the basis is 120.0, the basis rate is 4.84%, and the historical quantile is 60.80% [1] - **Live Pigs (H2511)**: The futures price is 15520, the spot reference price is the ex - factory price of live pigs (foreign one - yuan) in Henan, the basis is - 25.0, the basis rate is - 0.20%, and the historical quantile is 40.70% [1] - **Eggs (JD2511)**: The futures price is 3400, the spot reference price is the average price of eggs in Shijiazhuang, Hebei, the basis is 364.0, the basis rate is 11.99%, and the historical quantile is 59.80% [1] - **Cotton (CF601)**: The futures price is 13405.0, the spot reference price is the arrival price of Xinjiang cotton 3128B, the basis is 1550.0, the basis rate is 11.56%, and the historical quantile is 95.70% [1] - **Sugar (SR601)**: The futures price is 2880, the spot reference price is the spot price of white sugar at Liuzhou Station, the basis is 412.0, the basis rate is 7.52%, and the historical quantile is 74.00% [1] - **Apples (AP601)**: The futures price is 8401.0, the spot reference price is the theoretical delivery price of apples (daily/Steel Union), the basis is 199.0, the basis rate is 2.37%, and the historical quantile is 28.70% [1] - **Red Dates (CJ601)**: The futures price is 11285.0, the spot reference price is the wholesale price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei (Steel Union), the basis is - 1785.0, the basis rate is - 15.82%, and the historical quantile is 21.40% [1] Energy and Chemical Series - **Para - xylene (PX511)**: The futures price is 6656.0, the spot reference price is the converted RMB price of para - xylene at China's main ports (CFR), the basis is 19.6, the basis rate is 0.29%, and the historical quantile is 29.80% [1] - **PTA (TA601)**: The futures price is 4595.0, the spot reference price is the market price (intermediate price) of purified terephthalic acid (PTA) in East China, the basis is 51.0, the basis rate is 1.10%, and the historical quantile is 34.70% [1] - **Ethylene Glycol (EG2601)**: The futures price is 4213.0, the spot reference price is the market price (intermediate price) of ethylene glycol (MEG) in East China, the basis is 62.0, the basis rate is 1.47%, and the historical quantile is 80.50% [1] - **Styrene (EB2511)**: The futures price is 6915.0, the spot reference price is the market price of styrene in East China, the basis is - 34.0, the basis rate is - 0.49%, and the historical quantile is 20.30% [1] - **Methanol (MA601)**: The futures price is 2250.0, the spot reference price is the market price of methanol in Taicang, Jiangsu, the basis is - 105.0, the basis rate is - 4.46%, and the historical quantile is 12.00% [1] - **Urea (UR601)**: The futures price is 1610.0, the spot reference price is the market price (mainstream price) of small - particle urea in Shandong, the basis is - 59.0, the basis rate is - 3.54%, and the historical quantile is 3.00% [1] - **LLDPE (L2601)**: The futures price is 7165.0, the spot reference price is the ex - warehouse self - pick - up price (intermediate price) of linear low - density polyethylene (LLDPE) (film grade) in Shandong, the basis is 23.80%, and the historical quantile is 7159.0 (data may be wrong) [1] - **PP (PP2601)**: The futures price is 6893.0, the spot reference price is the ex - warehouse self - pick - up price (intermediate price) of polypropylene (PP) (拉丝级, melt index 2 - 4) in Zhejiang, the basis is - 113.0, the basis rate is - 1.60%, and the historical quantile is 4.60% [1] - **PVC (V2601)**: The futures price is 4740.0, the spot reference price is the market price (mainstream price) of polyvinyl chloride (SG - 5) in Changzhou, China, the basis is - 157.0, the basis rate is - 3.10%, and the historical quantile is 37.30% [1] - **Caustic Soda (SH601)**: The futures price is 2500.0, the spot reference price is the market price (mainstream price) of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong, the basis is - 28.0, the basis rate is - 1.10%, and the historical quantile is 43.50% [1] - **LPG (PG2511)**: The futures price is 4548.0, the spot reference price is the market price of liquefied petroleum gas in Guangzhou, the basis is 258.0, the basis rate is 6.01%, and the historical quantile is 47.60% [1] - **Asphalt (BU2511)**: The futures price is 3450.0, the spot reference price is the market price (mainstream price) of asphalt (heavy - traffic asphalt) in Shandong, the basis is 50.0, the basis rate is 1.45%, and the historical quantile is 62.20% [1] - **Butadiene Rubber (BR2511)**: The futures price is 11700.0, the spot reference price is the distribution price of cis - butadiene rubber (Daqing, BR9000) in East China by PetroChina, the basis is 270.0, the basis rate is 2.36%, and the historical quantile is 58.50% [1] - **Glass (FG601)**: The futures price is 1128.0, the spot reference price is the market price of 5mm large - plate glass in Shahe, the basis is - 124.0, the basis rate is - 10.09%, and the historical quantile is 24.52% [1] - **Soda Ash (SA601)**: The futures price is 1203.0, the spot reference price is the market price of heavy - quality soda ash in Shahe, the basis is - 90.0, the basis rate is - 7.48% (calculated), and the historical quantile is 10.06% [1] - **Natural Rubber (RU2601)**: The futures price is 15470.0, the spot reference price is the market price of natural rubber (Yunnan state - owned whole latex) in Shanghai, the basis is - 770.0, the basis rate is - 5.24%, and the historical quantile is 47.70% [1] Financial Futures Series - **Stock Index Futures** - **IF2512.CFE**: The futures price is 4550.0, the basis is - 25.0, the basis rate is - 0.55%, and the historical quantile is 17.60% [1] - **IH2512.CFE**: The futures price is 2941.0, the basis is - 3.4, the basis rate is - 0.11%, and the historical quantile is 76.

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information is provided in the reports. 2. Report Core Views Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Caustic Soda**: In the fourth quarter, the downside space is limited. Although the current downstream demand is mainly based on rigid - need purchases, there may be procurement willingness after the National Day due to low prices. In the fourth quarter, there may be concentrated stocking behavior, and the spot liquidity may tighten [2]. - **PVC**: In the fourth quarter, pay attention to cost support. Although the supply is in an over - capacity situation, exports have alleviated some pressure. The cost side provides bottom support, and the downside space during the peak season is limited [2]. Polyester Industry Chain - **PX**: In the fourth quarter, the supply - demand is expected to be weak, and the PXN has a compression expectation. The price will be under pressure due to weak cost - side support and weak supply - demand expectations [6]. - **PTA**: In the fourth quarter, it is difficult to have an independent market and may follow the cost side to fluctuate weakly [6]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: In the fourth quarter, it is expected to enter a period of inventory accumulation as it enters the demand off - season [6]. Polyolefin Industry - **LLDPE and PP**: For LLDPE, the current maintenance is at a high point, and the inventory of the upper - middle reaches is being depleted. For PP, unplanned maintenance has increased due to losses, and the inventory has decreased. However, after the festival, there is a large inventory pressure, and the new capacity release limits the upside space [9]. Methanol Industry - **Methanol**: In the short term, it will continue the volatile pattern. The supply side has a game between the expected supply reduction and the relatively healthy inventory structure. The demand side is weak as the traditional downstream enters the seasonal off - season, and the new polyolefin device production expectations suppress the MTO demand [21]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Pure Benzene**: The supply - demand is expected to be loose, and the price driving force is weak. It is necessary to pay attention to the oil price trend and macro - market sentiment [25]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand is expected to be loose, and the price is under pressure. In the short term, it is affected by geopolitical and macro - news [26]. Fertilizer Industry - **Urea**: The futures price fluctuates downward. The daily output is high, the demand is weak, and the export situation is uncertain [31]. Crude Oil Industry - **Crude Oil**: In the fourth quarter, the oil price will likely maintain a wide - range volatile pattern. Unilateral trading is recommended to use a band - trading strategy, and arbitrage is recommended to use a positive - spread strategy [33][35]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Spot and Futures Prices**: On September 26, compared with September 25, the prices of some products such as East China PVC by calcium carbide method decreased slightly, and the prices of some caustic soda products remained unchanged [2]. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: The overseas quotes of caustic soda and PVC were mostly stable, but the export profit of caustic soda decreased by 26.3%, and that of PVC increased by 323.8% [2]. - **Supply**: The overall PVC start - up rate increased by 0.9%, while the data of caustic soda start - up rate was not available [2]. - **Demand**: The start - up rates of some downstream industries of caustic soda and PVC increased slightly, and the PVC pre - sales volume increased by 0.5% [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of liquid caustic soda in East China factories and Shandong, and PVC upstream factories increased, while the total PVC social inventory remained unchanged [2]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Prices**: On September 26, compared with September 25, the prices of Brent and WTI crude oil increased, while the prices of some products such as CFR Japan naphtha decreased [6]. - **PX - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of CFR China PX and PX spot in RMB decreased [6]. - **PTA - Related Prices and Spreads**: The PTA spot price in East China increased slightly, and the PTA futures price decreased [6]. - **MEG - Related Prices and Spreads**: The MEG spot price in East China decreased, and the MEG futures price also decreased [6]. Polyolefin Industry - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On September 26, compared with September 25, the prices of L2601, PP2601 and other futures decreased slightly, and the price of East China PP raffia decreased by 0.3% [8][9]. - **Inventory and Start - up Rates**: The enterprise and social inventories of PE and PP decreased, and the start - up rates of PE and PP devices increased [9]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On September 26, compared with September 25, the prices of MA2601 and MA2509 decreased slightly, and the regional spreads changed [21]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise, port and social inventories of methanol decreased [21]. - **Start - up Rates**: The start - up rate of upstream domestic enterprises increased, while the start - up rates of some downstream industries decreased [21]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: On September 26, compared with September 25, the prices of some upstream products such as CFR China pure benzene decreased, and the import profit of pure benzene decreased [25]. - **Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of styrene in East China spot and futures decreased slightly [25]. - **Inventory and Start - up Rates**: The pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased, while the styrene inventory increased. The start - up rates of some industries in the pure benzene and styrene industry chain changed [25]. Fertilizer Industry - **Fertilizer Prices**: The prices of various fertilizers such as ammonium sulfate and sulfur are provided on September 26 [28][29]. - **Urea Data**: The daily and weekly production, inventory, and order days of urea are presented. The daily output is high, and the demand is weak [31]. Crude Oil Industry - **Crude Oil Prices and Spreads**: On September 29, compared with September 26, the prices of Brent, WTI and SC crude oil decreased, and the spreads changed [33]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: The prices of refined oil products such as NYM RBOB and NYM ULSD decreased, and the spreads also changed [33]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spreads**: The crack spreads of some refined oil products such as US gasoline and diesel changed [33].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - The reports present the latest price differences, price changes, and historical percentile data of various futures products including stock index futures, Treasury bond futures, and precious metal futures, as well as the current situation of spot prices, inventory, and positions, aiming to help investors understand the market trends and potential investment opportunities of these products [1][2][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index Futures - **Price Difference**: The current price difference of IF is 6.24, with a change of -25.05 compared to the previous day, and the historical 1 - year and full - history percentiles are 30.30% and 17.60% respectively. The current price difference of IC is - 160.91, with a change of 13.81, and the historical 1 - year and full - history percentiles are 2.40% and 0.20% respectively. The current price difference of IH is 76.40, with a change of 3.38, and the historical 1 - year and full - history percentiles are 2.52% and 74.10% respectively. The current price difference of IM is - 208.39, with a change of 30.00, and the historical 1 - year and full - history percentiles are 2.60% and 30.00% respectively [1]. - **Inter - period Price Difference**: Different inter - period price differences (such as next month - current month, quarterly month - current month, etc.) of IF, IC, IH, and IM show various changes and percentile levels [1]. - **Cross - variety Ratio**: Ratios such as CSI 500/CSI 300, IC/IF, etc. are provided, along with their changes and historical percentiles [1]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Basis**: The basis of TS is 1.4131, with a change of - 0.0083 compared to the previous day, and the historical percentile since listing is 17.10%. The basis of TF is 1.3377, with a change of 0.0198, and the historical percentile since listing is 32.70%. The basis of T is 1.2219, with a change of 0.1079, and the historical percentile since listing is 42.30%. The basis of TL is 1.2939, with a change of 0.4578, and the historical percentile since listing is 37.30% [2]. - **Inter - period Price Difference**: Different inter - period price differences (such as current quarter - next quarter, current quarter - distant quarter, etc.) of TS, TF, T, and TL are presented, along with their changes and historical percentiles [2]. - **Cross - variety Price Difference**: Cross - variety price differences such as TS - TF, TS - T, etc. are provided, along with their changes and historical percentiles [2]. Precious Metal Futures - **Domestic Futures Closing Price**: The closing price of the AU2512 contract on September 25 was 854.72 yuan/gram, with a decrease of 1.34 yuan compared to August 26, a decline of 0.16%. The closing price of the AG2512 contract on September 25 was 10411 yuan/kilogram, with a decrease of 221 yuan compared to August 26, a decline of 2.12% [4]. - **Foreign Futures Closing Price**: The closing price of the COMEX gold main contract on September 26 was 3789.80, with an increase of 9.30 compared to September 25, an increase of 0.25%. The closing price of the COMEX silver main contract on September 26 was 46.37 dollars/ounce, with an increase of 0.90 compared to September 25, an increase of 1.97% [4]. - **Spot Price**: The price of London gold on September 26 was 3758.78, with an increase of 10.38 compared to September 25, an increase of 0.28%. The price of London silver on September 26 was 46.03 dollars/ounce, with an increase of 0.90 compared to September 25, an increase of 2.00% [4]. - **Other Indicators**: Indicators such as gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract, COMEX gold/silver ratio, 10 - year US Treasury bond yield, and inventory and positions are also provided [4]. Container Shipping Industry - **Spot Quotation**: The freight rates of shipping routes from Shanghai to Europe of different shipping companies (such as MAERSK, CMA, etc.) show different changes on September 29 compared to September 28 [5]. - **Container Shipping Index**: The settlement price indices of SCFIS (European route) and SCFIS (US West route) decreased by 12.87% and 11.57% respectively from September 15 to September 22. The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) also showed varying degrees of decline [5]. - **Futures Price and Basis**: The prices of different container shipping futures contracts (such as EC2602, EC2510, etc.) showed different changes from September 25 to September 26. The basis of the main contract decreased by 186.5, a decline of 443.46% [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: The global container shipping capacity supply remained unchanged on September 29 compared to September 28. The port punctuality rate in Shanghai decreased by 43.80% from July to August, while the port berthing situation increased by 10.97%. The monthly export amount increased by 0.06%. Overseas economic indicators such as the Eurozone's composite PMI and the US manufacturing PMI also showed certain changes [5].

Group 1: Natural Rubber Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoint The 01 contract range is expected to be between 15,000 - 16,500. Follow-up attention should be paid to the raw material output in the peak production season of the main producing areas. If the raw material output is smooth, the upper edge of the range should adopt a short - selling strategy; if the raw material output is not smooth, the rubber price is expected to continue to run within the range [1]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On September 25th, the price of Yunnan Guofu full - latex (SCRWF) in Shanghai was 14,850 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day; the full - milk basis was - 820 yuan/ton, up 12.20%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber remained unchanged at 14,850 yuan/ton. The price of cup rubber in the international market increased by 0.10 Thai baht/kg, and the price of glue decreased by 0.50 Thai baht/kg [1]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread was - 15 yuan/ton, up 50.00% from the previous day; the 1 - 5 spread was 55 yuan/ton, down 26.67%; the 5 - 9 spread was - 40 yuan/ton, up 11.11% [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, Thailand's production was 421,600 tons, up 1.61%; Indonesia's production was 197,500 tons, up 12.09%; India's production was 45,000 tons, down 2.17%; China's production was 101,300 tons, down 1.30%. The weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 73.58%, down 0.08%; the weekly operating rate of full - steel tires was 65.72%, up 0.06%. In August, domestic tire production was 10,295,400 tons, up 9.10%, and tire export volume was 63,010,000 pieces, down 5.46%. In July, the total import volume of natural rubber was 474,800 tons, up 2.47%. In August, the import volume of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) was 660,000 tons, up 4.76% [1]. - **Inventory Change**: The bonded area inventory decreased by 0.95%, and the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE decreased by 3.07%. The inbound rate of dry rubber in the bonded warehouse in Qingdao increased, and the outbound rate decreased [1]. Group 2: Log Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoint Currently, logs are in a volatile pattern, with a position volume of only about 12,000 lots, and the market maintains a narrow - range oscillation around 800. As the traditional peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October" approach, follow - up attention should be paid to whether the shipment volume improves significantly after entering the seasonal peak season. In the current "weak reality, strong expectation" pattern, the strategy suggests seizing opportunities to go long at low prices [2]. Summary by Directory - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On September 26th, the 2511 log contract closed at 807.5 yuan/cubic meter, up 4.5 yuan/cubic meter from the previous day. The spot price of the benchmark delivery product remained unchanged, with the price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine in Shandong being 750 yuan/cubic meter and that in Jiangsu being 770 yuan/cubic meter [2]. - **Cost: Import Cost Calculation**: The RMB - US dollar exchange rate was 7.119, and the import theoretical cost was 799.14 yuan/cubic meter, up 0.11 yuan/cubic meter from the previous day [2]. - **Supply**: In August, the port shipment volume from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased by 3.87%, and the number of ships decreased by 6.38%. The main port inventory in China decreased by 3.31% week - on - week [2]. - **Demand**: The average daily outbound volume decreased by 5% week - on - week, with the average daily outbound volume in Shandong decreasing by 11% and that in Jiangsu increasing by 4% [2]. Group 3: Polysilicon Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoint Fundamentally, the supply - side regulation effect is less than expected, and the industry's over - capacity pattern remains unchanged. At the same time, the inventory in the downstream component segment is high, and the price has loosened. It is expected that before the National Day holiday, the polysilicon price will mainly remain range - bound, with a possible fluctuation range of 48,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton. Follow - up attention should be paid to whether the national - level policies on capacity clearance and industry stockpiling will have specific schedules and implementation details, as well as the actual operating rate and production reduction implementation of polysilicon enterprises, and track the inventory digestion progress and new order demand of downstream photovoltaic component factories [3]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On September 25th, the average price of N - type re -投料 was 52,550 yuan/ton, up 0.10%; the average price of N - type granular silicon was 50,500 yuan/ton, up 2.02%; the N - type material basis (average price) was 1,185 yuan/ton, up 5.80% [3]. - **Futures Price and Inter - month Spread**: The main contract price was 21,365 yuan/ton, down 0.03%. The spread between the current month and the first - continuous contract decreased by 91.80%, and the spread between the first - continuous and the second - continuous contract increased by 3.34% [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: Weekly, the silicon wafer production was 13.78 GW, down 1.01%; the polysilicon production was 31,100 tons, up 0.32%. Monthly, the polysilicon production was 131,700 tons, up 23.31%; the polysilicon import volume was 100 tons, down 9.63%; the polysilicon export volume was 300 tons, up 40.12% [3]. - **Inventory Change**: The polysilicon inventory was 226,000 tons, up 10.78%; the silicon wafer inventory was 16.23 GW, down 3.79%; the polysilicon warehouse receipt was 7,880 lots, up 0.38% [3]. Group 4: Industrial Silicon Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoint From a fundamental perspective, from September to October, as the supply of industrial silicon increases, the balance gradually turns to a loose state. The expectation of batch production cuts by silicon enterprises in Sichuan and Yunnan during the flat - dry water period is at the end of October, so the expected loose balance at the supply peak in October is more obvious and narrows again in November. At the same time, the cost increase during the flat - dry water period in the southwest raises the industry's average cost, bringing positive sentiment to the market. In the short term, the upward driving force of industrial silicon is insufficient, and the silicon price may turn to oscillation again, with the main price fluctuation range likely to be between 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the production reduction rhythm of silicon material enterprises and industrial silicon enterprises in Sichuan and Yunnan in the fourth quarter [4]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Main Contract Basis**: On September 25th, the price of N - type re -投料 remained unchanged at 52,550 yuan/ton; the price of N - type granular silicon was 50,500 yuan/ton, up 1000 yuan/ton from the previous day; the N - type material basis (average price) was 1,185 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan/ton [4]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The spread between 2510 - 2511 was - 15 yuan/ton, up 50.00% from the previous day; the spread between 2511 - 2512 was - 390 yuan/ton, up 1.27%; the spread between 2512 - 2601 was 25 yuan/ton, down 28.57% [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: Monthly, the national industrial silicon production was 385,700 tons, up 14.01%; the production in Xinjiang was 169,700 tons, up 12.91%; the production in Yunnan was 58,100 tons, up 41.19%; the production in Sichuan was 53,700 tons, up 10.72%. The national operating rate was 52.61%, up 3.26% [4]. - **Inventory Change**: The inventory in Xinjiang decreased by 11.63%, the inventory in Yunnan increased by 2.91%, and the inventory in Sichuan increased by 3.06%. The social inventory remained unchanged, the contract inventory increased by 0.28%, and the non - warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 0.24% [4]. Group 5: Glass and Soda Ash Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoint - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash market has continued to trade in a narrow range, influenced by news and sentiment. The fundamental oversupply problem persists. Although the manufacturer's inventory has decreased recently, the inventory has actually shifted to the middle and lower reaches, and the trade inventory has continued to rise. The weekly production remains high, and there is still an oversupply compared to the current rigid demand. In the medium term, there is no expectation of a significant increase in downstream production capacity, so the overall demand for soda ash will continue the previous rigid demand pattern. If there is no actual capacity exit or load reduction in the future, the inventory will be further pressured. The implementation of policies and the load regulation of soda ash plants can be tracked. The overall supply - demand pattern is still bearish, and short - selling positions established on rallies can be held [5]. - **Glass**: Rumors about a glass enterprise meeting have driven the market sentiment to rise significantly. The news and speculation about "calling for industry price increases" and "anti - involution" should be viewed rationally as they cannot be confirmed for now. The glass market has seen a significant increase in positions and prices in the past two days due to news - driven factors. The sharp rebound in the glass market has led to an increase in spot prices, with some regional enterprises raising their prices by up to 100 yuan/ton, and the spot market trading has become active again, with the production - sales ratio exceeding 100%. However, the intermediate inventory in some regions remains high and shows no obvious signs of reduction. In the long - term, the real estate market is at the bottom of the cycle, and the industry needs to clear excess capacity to solve the oversupply problem. In the short - term, the sentiment - driven market has led to a temporary improvement in the spot market, and its sustainability needs to be tracked. As the National Day approaches, the pre - holiday macro sentiment is positive, and the glass industry does not have the driving force for continuous negative feedback for now, so excessive short - selling is not recommended. After the holiday, the actual implementation of policies in various regions and the inventory replenishment performance of the middle and lower reaches during the "Golden September and Silver October" period need to be tracked [5]. Summary by Directory - **Glass - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices in North China, East China, Central China, and South China increased by 4.31%, 4.88%, 4.35%, and 4.80% respectively. The prices of glass 2505 and glass 2509 increased by 1.99% and 1.54% respectively [5]. - **Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices in North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest China remained unchanged. The prices of soda ash 2505 and soda ash 2509 increased by 0.72% and 0.79% respectively [5]. - **Supply**: The operating rate of soda ash decreased by 2.02%, the weekly production of soda ash decreased by 2.02%, the daily melting volume of float glass decreased by 0.47%, and the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass remained unchanged [5]. - **Inventory**: The glass inventory decreased by 1.10%, the soda ash factory inventory decreased by 2.33%, and the soda ash delivery warehouse inventory increased by 10.69% [5]. - **Real Estate Data**: The year - on - year growth rates of new construction area, construction area, completion area, and sales area were - 0.09%, 0.05%, - 0.22%, and - 6.55% respectively [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - After the Fed cut interest rates by 25bp as expected, the market quickly digested the expectation and turned to shock. With the approaching holiday, the activity of the capital market decreased, and short - term style switching and partial withdrawal would occur [2]. - Without incremental negative news, the 1.8 - 1.83% range may be the high - level range for the 10 - year Treasury bond yield, but in the absence of strong positive factors, the short - term decline in interest rates is also limited [2]. - As the end of the quarter approaches, the liquidity of derivative contracts for gold tightens, and the risk of volatility is relatively large. The silver price is driven by both financial and industrial attributes, with high upward elasticity [2]. - The shipping index on the EC (European line) is rising on the disk, and the steel exports support the black valuation, with steel prices continuing to fluctuate [2]. - The geopolitical risk premium drives the oil price up, but the expected recovery of supply in the Kurdish region limits the rebound height, with short - term shock as the main trend [2]. - The supply of urea remains loose in the short term, and the demand side lacks strong drivers, so the market is weak [2]. - For agricultural products, the supply prospects of overseas sugar are broad, and new cotton is gradually coming onto the market, increasing supply pressure [2]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Financial Stock Index - TMT continues to lead the market, and most stock indices close higher. It is recommended to sell put options on the MO2511 contract with an execution price near 6600 when the index pulls back to collect premiums [2]. Treasury Bond - The MLF is renewed with an increased amount, and the overall trend of Treasury bond futures is volatile. It is recommended to operate within the range for the unilateral strategy and pay attention to quick entry and exit. For the basis spread strategy, the basis of the TL contract fluctuates at a high level, and one can appropriately participate in the basis narrowing strategy [2]. Precious Metals - For gold, maintain the idea of buying on dips or buying out - of - the - money call options. For silver, keep a low - buying strategy as its price fluctuates above $43 [2]. Black Steel - Steel exports support the black valuation, and steel prices continue to fluctuate. Try short - buying on pullbacks and narrow the spread between the January contract of hot - rolled coil and rebar [2]. Iron Ore - The decline in shipments, the increase in molten iron, and the replenishment demand support the high - level shock of iron ore prices. The 2601 contract of iron ore is regarded as volatile, with a reference range of 780 - 850 [2]. Coal - The coal prices in coal - producing areas are stable with a slight upward trend. It is recommended to short the coking coal 2601 contract at high prices, with a reference range of 1150 - 1250, and short the coke 2601 contract at high prices, with a reference range of 1650 - 1800 [2]. Energy and Chemical Crude Oil - The geopolitical risk premium drives the oil price up, but the expected recovery of supply in the Kurdish region limits the rebound height. It is recommended to adopt a unilateral band - trading strategy, with the WTI operating range at [60, 66], Brent at [64, 69], and SC at [471, 502] [2]. Other Chemicals - For various chemicals such as urea, PX, PTA, etc., different trading strategies are proposed according to their supply - demand situations, such as short - selling urea on rallies, and paying attention to the pressure levels for PX and PTA long positions [2]. Agricultural Products - For different agricultural products like soybeans, pigs, corn, etc., different trends and trading suggestions are given. For example, for sugar, conduct short - selling on rebounds; for cotton, short in the short term [2]. Special Commodities - For glass, due to news - driven factors, the glass futures market has risen sharply, and it is recommended to watch cautiously. For rubber, the impact of the typhoon is limited, and the rubber price has fallen slightly, so it is recommended to watch [2]. New Energy - For polysilicon, the market sentiment is repaired, and the futures market rebounds, so it is recommended to watch temporarily. For lithium carbonate, driven by the sector sentiment, the futures market strengthens slightly, and the main contract is expected to operate in the range of 70,000 - 75,000 yuan [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes various sectors in the financial and commodity futures markets, including financial derivatives (such as stock index futures, treasury bond futures), precious metals, container shipping indices, and multiple commodity futures (such as non - ferrous metals, black metals, agricultural products, energy chemicals). It provides market conditions, news, and operation suggestions for each sector, with a view to guiding investors to make decisions based on the current market situation and future trends [1]. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: TMT led the market, with most stock index futures rising. The basis of the four major stock index futures contracts was deeply discounted. The market was affected by domestic and overseas news, and the trading volume of the A - share market increased slightly. It is recommended to sell put options on MO2511 when the index pulls back [2][3][4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: MLF was incrementally renewed, and treasury bond futures generally showed an oscillating trend. The central bank's monetary policy showed a moderately loose orientation, but the improvement of inter - bank market liquidity was limited. It is recommended to conduct range operations and pay attention to fast - in and fast - out, and also participate in the basis narrowing strategy of the TL contract [5][7][8]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The US government faced a shutdown risk, and the economy and inflation were relatively resilient. Silver reached a new high due to its industrial attributes. Gold maintained a high - level oscillation. In the future, the Fed's policy path will suppress the US dollar index, and the political situation in Europe and the United States will increase the demand for precious metals as a hedge. It is recommended to buy on dips or buy out - of - the - money call options for gold, and maintain a bullish view on silver [9][12][13]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The spot freight rates of shipping companies were provided, and the SCFIS European line index declined. The futures price rose, and CMA raised its November price. It is recommended to go long on the December and February contracts [14][15]. Commodity Futures Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Grasberg mine disturbances increased supply concerns, and copper prices remained high. The macro - market was affected by the Fed's interest rate cut, and the supply side was affected by the mine accident. Although the short - term demand was suppressed, the long - term supply - demand contradiction supported the price. It is recommended to hold long positions [16][17][20]. - **Alumina**: The market was in a situation of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand. The price was under pressure, but the cost support limited the downward space. It is recommended to pay attention to the cost - profit change and Guinea's policy [20][21][23]. - **Aluminum**: The social inventory showed a turning point, and the fundamentals improved marginally under the support of the peak season effect and stocking demand. The aluminum price was expected to oscillate at a high level after a pullback [24][25][26]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The disk oscillated, and the pre - holiday stocking demand supported the spot price. The supply was tight, the cost was high, and the demand recovered moderately. It is recommended to consider arbitrage operations [26][27][28]. - **Zinc**: The social inventory decreased during the peak season, and the price was expected to oscillate. The supply was loose, and the demand showed differentiation at home and abroad [29][30][32]. - **Tin**: The import of tin ore remained low in August, and the supply supported the price. The demand was weak, and the market was in a tight - balance situation. It is recommended to pay attention to the import situation of tin ore from Myanmar [32][33][35]. - **Nickel**: The non - ferrous metal sector boosted the intraday market, and the fundamentals changed little. The supply was high, and the demand was stable in some sectors and weak in others. The price was expected to oscillate within a range [36][37][38]. - **Stainless Steel**: The disk oscillated and rose slightly. The raw material prices were firm, and the cost provided support. The supply increased, and the demand improvement was not obvious. It is recommended to pay attention to the steel mill's dynamics and inventory digestion [39][40][41]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The sector sentiment drove the disk to strengthen slightly, and the fundamentals were in a tight - balance during the peak season. The supply increased marginally, the demand was optimistic, and the inventory decreased. It is recommended to expect the price to oscillate within a range [42][43][44]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Steel exports supported the black metal valuation, and the steel price continued to oscillate. The cost had support, the supply was at a high level, and the demand showed seasonal fluctuations. It is recommended to go long with a light position and pay attention to the seasonal recovery of demand [46][47]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply and demand of iron ore showed a slight improvement, but it was still insufficient in the peak season. The supply was affected by shipping and arrival, and the demand was supported by high - level hot metal production. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract at low prices and conduct arbitrage operations [48][50]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal market was strong, and the downstream replenishment demand supported the price. The supply increased as mines resumed production, and the demand recovered with the increase in hot metal production. It is recommended to go short on the 2601 contract at high prices and conduct arbitrage operations [51][53][54]. - **Coke**: The main coke enterprises started to raise prices, and the price increase space might be limited. The supply decreased due to cost pressure, and the demand was supported by the increase in hot metal production. It is recommended to go short on the 2601 contract at high prices and conduct arbitrage operations [55][56]. Agricultural Products - **Meal**: Argentina restarted the export tax, but China had purchased many ships of Argentine soybeans. The domestic soybean meal supply was abundant, and the near - month price was under pressure. The 1 - 5 spread might continue to weaken [57][58][60].