Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views Lithium - Yesterday, the lithium carbonate futures market oscillated slightly stronger, driven by the strength of lithium - battery stocks and the overall sentiment of the non - ferrous sector. The project of Tibet Mining's Zabuye Salt Lake has been put into operation, but the short - term impact on supply is limited. - Production data has increased slightly, with new projects and lithium spodumene toll - processing contributing to the increase. Demand is steadily optimistic, and the whole industry chain is de - stocking. - In the short term, the supply path is clear, and the trading space is weakened. The strong demand in the peak season supports the price, and the futures market is expected to oscillate and consolidate, with the main price center of reference in the range of 70,000 - 75,000 yuan per ton [2]. Stainless Steel - Yesterday, the stainless - steel futures market oscillated slightly higher, while the spot market was cautious. The Fed's interest - rate cut has been implemented, and the nickel - ore price is firm. The 9 - month crude - steel production is expected to increase, mainly in the 300 - series. - The demand improvement in the peak season is not obvious, and the social inventory is slowly decreasing. In the short term, the market will mainly oscillate and adjust, with the main operating range of 12,800 - 13,200 yuan per ton [6]. Nickel - Yesterday, the Shanghai nickel futures market continued to oscillate strongly, and the spot price also increased. The Indonesian nickel - mining association's stance is positive but has limited impact. - The refined - nickel spot trading is average, the ore price is firm, and the nickel - iron price has declined. The demand for stainless steel is weak, while the demand for nickel sulfate has improved. - In the short term, the market will maintain range - bound oscillations, with the main reference range of 120,000 - 125,000 yuan per ton [8]. Zinc - Since September, Shanghai zinc has been relatively weak in the non - ferrous sector due to the expectation of loose supply. The supply side is loose, with increasing imports and high smelting rates. The demand side shows differentiation between domestic and foreign markets. - In the short term, the price may rise due to macro - drivers, but the upward rebound needs demand improvement and continuous improvement of interest - rate cut expectations. The market is expected to oscillate, with the main reference range of 21,500 - 22,500 yuan per ton [11]. Copper - Freeport's announcement of the Grasberg mine accident has intensified concerns about the tight supply of global copper mines. The macro - environment is positive, with expected interest - rate cuts. - The copper demand may weaken marginally in the second half of the year, but the supply shortage at the mine end supports the copper price. In the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction provides support, and the short - term price is rising due to mine - end disturbances. The main support level is 81,000 - 81,500 yuan per ton [13]. Tin - The actual supply of tin ore remains tight, and the smelting processing fee is low. The demand is weak, and although AI and photovoltaic industries drive some consumption, it cannot make up for the decline in traditional consumption. - The supply side supports the tin price, which continues to oscillate at a high level, with the operating range of 265,000 - 285,000 yuan per ton [15]. Aluminum Alloy - Yesterday, the casting - aluminum - alloy futures price oscillated with the aluminum price. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the cost is high. The demand is in a mild recovery, and the pre - holiday stocking supports the price. - The short - term ADC12 price will maintain high - level oscillations, with the main contract reference range of 20,200 - 20,600 yuan per ton [17]. Aluminum - The alumina futures price rebounded slightly, but the market is in a pattern of "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand". The supply pressure is high, and the demand is weak. The short - term spot price will be under pressure, with the main contract oscillating in the range of 2,850 - 3,150 yuan per ton. - For aluminum, the Fed's interest - rate cut has affected the market sentiment. The supply pressure exists, and the demand in the peak season and pre - holiday stocking support the price. The inventory has shown a positive signal. The short - term price will oscillate at a high level after a decline, with the main contract reference range of 20,600 - 21,000 yuan per ton [18]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lithium - **Price and Basis**: The average prices of SMM battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide have decreased slightly, while the CIF price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide in China, Japan, and South Korea has increased. The basis and some monthly spreads have changed [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the production, demand, and imports of lithium carbonate increased, while the inventory decreased. The production capacity in September increased, and the operating rate in August also rose [2]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The prices of 304/2B stainless - steel coils in Wuxi and Foshan have changed, and the basis and some monthly spreads have also changed. The raw - material prices are mostly stable [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China has decreased, while the imports and exports have changed. The social inventory of the 300 - series has increased slightly, and the SHFE warehouse receipts have decreased [6]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: The prices of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel, 1 Jinchuan nickel, and 1 imported nickel have increased, and the basis and some monthly spreads have changed. The cost of producing electrowon nickel from different raw materials has also changed [8]. - **Supply and Inventory**: China's refined - nickel production has increased, while imports have decreased. The SHFE inventory and social inventory have increased, and the LME inventory is stable [8]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot has increased, and the basis, import loss, and monthly spreads have changed [11]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the production and imports of refined zinc increased, while exports decreased. The operating rates of downstream industries have changed, and the social and LME inventories have decreased [11]. Copper - **Price and Basis**: The prices of SMM 1 electrolytic copper, SMM wet - process copper, etc. have increased significantly, and the basis, refined - scrap spread, and other indicators have changed [13]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the production and imports of electrolytic copper decreased. The operating rates of copper - rod production have increased, and the inventories in different regions have changed [13]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: The prices of SMM 1 tin and Yangtze 1 tin have increased, and the basis and some monthly spreads have changed [15]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: In July, the imports of tin ore decreased, while the production and imports of refined tin increased. The exports of refined tin and Indonesian refined tin decreased [15]. - **Inventory Changes**: The SHEF inventory, social inventory, and SHEF warehouse receipts have decreased, while the LME inventory has increased [15]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The prices of SMM ADC12 aluminum alloy in different regions have increased slightly, and the refined - scrap spreads in different regions have decreased. The monthly spreads have changed [17]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the production of recycled and primary aluminum alloy ingots, and the production of scrap aluminum have changed. The imports and exports of un - wrought aluminum alloy ingots have increased. The operating rates of different - sized recycled - aluminum alloy enterprises and primary - aluminum alloy enterprises have changed, and the inventory has increased slightly [17]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM A00 aluminum has decreased, and the prices of alumina in different regions have mostly decreased. The import loss, basis, and monthly spreads have changed [18]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the production of alumina and electrolytic aluminum increased, while the imports and exports of electrolytic aluminum changed. The operating rates of downstream aluminum industries have changed, and the social and LME inventories of electrolytic aluminum have decreased [18].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents the latest price and basis data of various futures and spot commodities, including ferrous metals, non - ferrous metals, precious metals, agricultural products, and energy chemicals, as well as stock index futures and bond futures, to provide a reference for market participants [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Ferrous Metals - **Silicon Iron (SF51)**: The spot price is 5758, the futures price is 5786, the basis is - 28, and the basis rate is 0.54%. The historical quantile is 55.30% [1]. - **Silicon Manganese (SM601)**: The spot price is 5970, the futures price is 2038, the basis is 3932, and the basis rate is 31.20% [1]. - **Rebar (RB2601)**: The spot price of HRB400 20mm in Shanghai is 3167, the futures price is 3290, the basis is - 123, and the basis rate is 3.88%. The historical quantile is 56.60% [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil (HC2601)**: The spot price of Q235B 4.75mm in Shanghai is 3358, the futures price is 3400, the basis is - 42, and the basis rate is 1.25%. The historical quantile is 36.50% [1]. - **Iron Ore (12601)**: The spot price of 62.5% Brazilian mixed powder (BRBF) at Rizhao Port is 806, the futures price is 853, the basis is - 47, and the basis rate is - 5.51%. The historical quantile is 40.40% [1]. - **Coke (J2601)**: The spot price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port is 1646, the futures price is 1760, the basis is - 114, and the basis rate is - 6.49%. The historical quantile is 8.35% [1]. - **Coking Coal (JM2601)**: The spot price of S1.3 G75 main coking coal (Meng 5) at Shaheyi is 1235, the futures price is 1185, the basis is 50, and the basis rate is 4.22%. The historical quantile is 15.00% [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper (CU2511)**: The SMM electrolytic copper average price is 82505, the futures price is 82710, the basis is - 205, and the basis rate is - 0.25%. The historical quantile is 25.41% [1]. - **Aluminum (AL2511)**: The SMM A00 aluminum average price is 20770, the futures price is 20765, the basis is 5, and the basis rate is 0.02%. The historical quantile is 59.16% [1]. - **Alumina (AO2601)**: The SMM heavy - alumina modulus average price is 3001, the futures price is 2942, the basis is 59, and the basis rate is 2.00%. The historical quantile is 42.95% [1]. - **Zinc (ZN2511)**: The SMM 1 zinc ingot average price is 21800, the futures price is 22045, the basis is - 245, and the basis rate is - 1.11%. The historical quantile is 7.08% [1]. - **Tin (SN2511)**: The SMM 1 tin average price is 273700, the futures price is 273710, the basis is - 10, and the basis rate is 0.00%. The historical quantile is 47.70% [1]. - **Nickel (NISEJI)**: The SMM 1 imported nickel average price is 123225, the futures price is 122990, the basis is 235, and the basis rate is 0.19%. The historical quantile is 70.20% [1]. - **Stainless Steel (SS2511)**: The price of 304/2B:2*1240*C at Wuxi Hongwang (including trimming fee) is 13370, the futures price is 12930, the basis is 440, and the basis rate is 3.40%. The historical quantile is 84.54% [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate (LC2511)**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 73750, the futures price is 74040, the basis is - 290, and the basis rate is - 0.39%. The historical quantile is 51.10% [1]. - **Industrial Silicon (SI2511)**: The SMM industrial silicon average price is 9500, the futures price is 9055, the basis is 445, and the basis rate is 4.91%. The historical quantile is 32.79% [1]. Precious Metals - **Gold (AU2512)**: The Shanghai Gold Exchange gold spot AU (T + D) price is 854.7, the futures price is 852.0, the basis is 2.7, and the basis rate is 0.32%. The historical quantile is 26.50% [1]. - **Silver (AG2512)**: The Shanghai Gold Exchange silver spot AG (T + D) price is 10411.0, the futures price is 10353.0, the basis is 58.0, and the basis rate is 0.56%. The historical quantile is 26.50% [1]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal (M2601)**: The ex - factory price of ordinary soybean meal in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu is 2900, the futures price is 2967.0, the basis is - 67.0, and the basis rate is - 2.26%. The historical quantile is 26.50% [1]. - **Soybean Oil (V2601)**: The ex - factory price of grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu is 8350, the futures price is 8192.0, the basis is 158.0, and the basis rate is 1.93%. The historical quantile is 31.50% [1]. - **Palm Oil (P2601)**: The delivery price of palm oil at Huangpu Port is 9222.0, the futures price is 9150, the basis is 72.0, and the basis rate is 0.79%. The historical quantile is 6.40% [1]. - **Rapeseed Meal (RM601)**: The ex - factory price of ordinary rapeseed meal in Zhanjiang, Guangdong is 2444.0, the futures price is 2530, the basis is - 86.0, and the basis rate is - 3.40%. The historical quantile is 62.30% [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil (Ol601)**: The ex - factory price of grade 4 rapeseed oil in Nantong, Jiangsu is 10142.0, the futures price is 10330, the basis is - 188.0, and the basis rate is - 1.82%. The historical quantile is 67.70% [1]. - **Corn (C2511)**: The f.o.b. price of corn at Jinzhou Port is 2310, the futures price is 2165.0, the basis is 145.0, and the basis rate is 6.70%. The historical quantile is 96.00% [1]. - **Corn Starch (CS2511)**: The ex - factory price of corn starch in Changchun, Jilin is 2600, the futures price is 2474.0, the basis is 126.0, and the basis rate is 5.09%. The historical quantile is 63.40% [1]. - **Live Hogs (H251)**: The ex - factory price of live hogs (external ternary) in Henan is 12550, the futures price is 12685.0, the basis is - 135.0, and the basis rate is - 1.06%. The historical quantile is 38.50% [1]. - **Eggs (JD2511)**: The average price of eggs in Shijiazhuang, Hebei is 414.0, the futures price is 3490, the basis is 65.0, and the basis rate is 1.86%. The historical quantile is 13.46% [1]. - **Cotton (CF601)**: The arrival price of cotton 3128B in Xinjiang is 15030, the futures price is 13530.0, the basis is 1500.0, and the basis rate is 11.09%. The historical quantile is 94.00% [1]. - **Sugar (SR601)**: The spot price of white sugar at Liuzhou Station is 5890, the futures price is 5485.0, the basis is 405.0, and the basis rate is 7.38%. The historical quantile is 73.30% [1]. - **Apples (AP601)**: The theoretical delivery price of apples is 8600, the futures price is 8446.0, the basis is 154.0, and the basis rate is 1.82%. The historical quantile is 27.40% [1]. - **Red Dates (CJ601)**: The wholesale price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei is 10970.0, the futures price is 9500, the basis is 1470.0, and the basis rate is 15.42%. The historical quantile is 32.50% [1]. Energy Chemicals - **Para - Xylene (PX511)**: The spot price (CFR) of para - xylene at the main port in China, converted to RMB, is 6594.0, the futures price is 6686.8, the basis is - 92.8, and the basis rate is - 1.41%. The historical quantile is 50.90% [1]. - **PTA (TA601)**: The market price (mid - price) of purified terephthalic acid (PTA) in East China is 4530.0, the futures price is 4604.0, the basis is - 74.0, and the basis rate is - 1.61%. The historical quantile is 24.80% [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol (EG2601)**: The market price (mid - price) of ethylene glycol in East China is 4345.0, the futures price is 4257.0, the basis is 88.0, and the basis rate is 2.07%. The historical quantile is 88.60% [1]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber (PF511)**: The market price (mainstream price) of polyester staple fiber (1.4D*38mm (direct - spun)) in the East China market is 6284.0, the futures price is 6425.0, the basis is - 141.0, and the basis rate is - 2.24%. The historical quantile is 76.70% [1]. - **Styrene (EB2511)**: The market price (spot benchmark price) of styrene in East China, China is 7030.0, the futures price is 6992.0, the basis is 38.0, and the basis rate is 0.54%. The historical quantile is 35.10% [1]. - **Methanol (MA601)**: The market price (spot benchmark price) of methanol in Taicang, Jiangsu, China is 2361.0, the futures price is 2250.0, the basis is 111.0, and the basis rate is 4.70%. The historical quantile is 10.80% [1]. - **Urea (UR601)**: The market price (mainstream price) of small - particle urea in Shandong is 1640.0, the futures price is 1661.0, the basis is - 21.0, and the basis rate is - 1.28%. The historical quantile is 8.20% [1]. - **LLDPE (L2601)**: The duty - paid self - pick - up price (mid - price) of linear low - density polyethylene LLDPE (film grade) in Shandong is 7190.0, the futures price is 7169.0, the basis is 21.0, and the basis rate is 0.29%. The historical quantile is 28.30% [1]. - **PP (PP2601)**: The duty - paid self - pick - up price (mid - price) of polypropylene PP (wire - drawing grade, melt index 2 - 4) in Zhejiang is 6860.0, the futures price is 6914.0, the basis is - 54.0, and the basis rate is - 0.79%. The historical quantile is 11.90% [1]. - **PVC (V2601)**: The market price (mainstream price) of polyvinyl chloride (SG - 5) in the Changzhou market, China is 4780.0, the futures price is 4950.0, the basis is - 170.0, and the basis rate is - 3.43%. The historical quantile is 34.10% [1]. - **Caustic Soda (SH601)**: The market price (mainstream price) of caustic soda (32% ion - membrane caustic soda) in Shandong, converted to 100%, is 2641.0, the futures price is 2500.0, the basis is 141.0, and the basis rate is 5.64%. The historical quantile is 29.40% [1]. - **LPG (PG2511)**: The market price of liquefied petroleum gas in Guangzhou is 4548.0, the futures price is 4360.0, the basis is 188.0, and the basis rate is 4.31%. The historical quantile is 42.10% [1]. - **Asphalt (BU2511)**: The market price (mainstream price) of asphalt (heavy - traffic asphalt) in Shandong is 3520.0, the futures price is 3421.0, the basis is 99.0, and the basis rate is 2.81%. The historical quantile is 71.80% [1]. - **Butadiene Rubber (BR2511)**: The Chinese distribution price of cis - butadiene rubber (Daqing, BR9000) in North China is 11445.0, the futures price is 11700.0, the basis is - 255.0, and the basis rate is - 2.23%. The historical quantile is 56.80% [1]. - **Glass (FG601)**: The market price of 5mm large - plate float glass in Shahe is 1128.0, the futures price is 1270.0, the basis is - 142.0, and the basis rate is - 11.18%. The historical quantile is 16.94% [1]. - **Soda Ash (SA601)**: The market price of heavy - soda ash in Shahe is 1225.0, the futures price is 1315.0, the basis is - 90.0, and the basis rate is - 6.86%. The historical quantile is 10.04% [1

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no information about report industry investment ratings in the provided documents. Group 2: Core Views of the Reports Oils and Fats - Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are expected to face resistance at 4,450 ringgit and may fall back to 4,200 ringgit. Dalian palm oil futures may follow suit and test 9,000 yuan. Argentine soybean oil exports will be taxed again, and domestic soybean supply is sufficient, so the basis of soybean oil is difficult to rise continuously [1]. Sugar - International raw sugar prices are expected to remain in a bottom - range oscillation due to oversupply. Zhengzhou sugar futures have broken through 5,500 yuan, but there is short - term rebound momentum while maintaining a bearish trend overall [2]. Cotton - The mid - term domestic cotton price may be under pressure due to weak seed cotton purchasing willingness and high hedging pressure on the supply side, as well as weak downstream demand [3]. Eggs - Egg prices are expected to remain in a bottom - range oscillation due to sufficient supply and potential demand increase during festivals [4]. Corn - The corn market will be under pressure in the short term. The price will likely decline with new grain listing, and the market will focus on the new grain acquisition rhythm and farmers' selling mentality [5]. Meal and Oilseeds - Argentine soybean exports have restarted the export tax, and US soybeans lack substantial positive factors. Domestic soybean meal supply is abundant, and the 1 - 5 spread may continue to weaken [8]. Pigs - The pig market is expected to maintain an oscillating adjustment, following the spot price with small fluctuations. Market supply is recovering, and demand is slowly picking up [10]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Price Changes**: On September 25, the spot price of Jiangsu first - grade soybean oil rose by 0.96%, and the futures price of Y2601 rose by 1.14%. The basis of palm oil in Guangdong changed significantly, and the import profit decreased. The price of rapeseed oil also had corresponding changes [1]. - **Spread Changes**: The 01 - 05 spreads of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil changed, and the soybean - palm oil spread and rapeseed - soybean oil spread also fluctuated [1]. Sugar - **Futures Market**: The prices of sugar 2601 and 2605 decreased slightly, and the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 6.06%. The positions of the main contract and the number of warehouse receipts decreased [2]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in Nanning remained unchanged, and the price in Kunming increased slightly. The basis increased, and the import price of Brazilian sugar also changed slightly [2]. - **Industry Situation**: The national sugar production and sales increased year - on - year, and the industrial inventory also changed [2]. Cotton - **Futures Market**: The prices of cotton 2605 and 2601 decreased slightly, and the 5 - 1 spread changed significantly. The positions of the main contract and the number of warehouse receipts decreased [3]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price and CC Index of 3128B increased slightly, while the FC Index of M: 1% decreased [3]. - **Industry Situation**: The commercial and industrial inventories of cotton decreased, and the import volume increased. The inventory days of yarn and grey cloth decreased, and the cotton shipping volume out of Xinjiang increased [3]. Eggs - **Futures Market**: The prices of egg 11 and 10 contracts increased, and the 11 - 10 spread changed [4]. - **Spot Market**: The egg production area price decreased slightly, and the prices of egg - laying chicks remained unchanged, while the price of culled chickens increased [4]. - **Industry Situation**: The feed - to - egg ratio increased, and the breeding profit decreased significantly [4]. Corn - **Corn**: The price of corn 2511 increased slightly, and the basis and 11 - 3 spread changed. The number of vehicles at Shandong deep - processing enterprises increased significantly [5]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of corn starch 2511 increased slightly, and the basis and 11 - 3 spread changed [5]. Meal and Oilseeds - **Price Changes**: The spot and futures prices of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and soybeans all had corresponding increases, and the basis and import crushing margins also changed [8]. - **Spread Changes**: The 01 - 05 spreads of soybean meal and rapeseed meal increased, and the oil - meal ratio and soybean - rapeseed meal spread changed [8]. Pigs - **Futures Market**: The prices of live hog 2511 and 2601 decreased slightly, and the 11 - 1 spread decreased [10]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices of hogs in different regions changed, and the slaughter volume, white - strip price, and other indicators also had corresponding changes [10].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not provide any industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views - **Chlor - Alkali Industry**: The caustic soda market has a high supply, and there is a possibility of price cuts. PVC is expected to stop falling and stabilize in the peak season from September to October, but the supply - demand contradiction is still difficult to ease [2]. - **Crude Oil Industry**: The current oil market shows a game between weak macro - expectations and tight spot fundamentals. It is likely to operate in a short - term range. It is recommended to focus on unilateral segment operations [24]. - **Methanol Industry**: The port inventory has decreased. The supply in the inland is at a relatively high level, and the demand is weak. The overall valuation is neutral, and the futures price fluctuates between high inventory and overseas gas - restriction expectations [29]. - **Urea Industry**: The urea futures market shows a weak and volatile pattern, mainly due to the deepening contradiction between high supply and weak demand. Although the cost provides some support, it is difficult to reverse the market downturn [37]. - **Polyolefin Industry**: PP production has decreased recently, and the inventory has declined. PE maintenance has reached a high point, and the upstream and mid - stream inventory has decreased. The pressure of inventory accumulation for 01 contracts is relatively large, which limits the upward space [43]. - **Polyester Industry**: PX supply increases, and the fourth - quarter supply - demand is expected to be weak. PTA supply is expected to shrink, and the short - term basis is supported. Ethylene glycol supply - demand is gradually weakening. Short - fiber support is strong in the short - term, and bottle - chip supply - demand is still loose [46]. - **Styrene Industry**: The supply of pure benzene is loose, and the demand support is limited. The overall supply - demand of styrene is relatively loose, and the port inventory has accumulated, so the price may be under pressure [53]. 3. Summary by Directory Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Prices**: From September 24th to 25th, the prices of some caustic soda products remained unchanged, while PVC prices showed a slight increase. The futures prices of some contracts decreased slightly [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: The caustic soda industry's operating rate decreased slightly, and the PVC total operating rate decreased by 5%. The demand for downstream products of caustic soda and PVC generally increased [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of liquid caustic soda in Shandong increased, while the inventory in some areas decreased. The PVC upstream factory inventory decreased slightly, and the total social inventory increased slightly [2]. Crude Oil Industry - **Prices**: On September 26th, Brent crude oil rose by 0.16%, WTI rose by 0.45%, and SC fell by 1.55%. The spreads of some contracts changed significantly [24]. - **Market Logic**: The market focus has shifted from geopolitical risks and tight supply to concerns about the macro - economy. The strong US economic data and the expected resumption of crude oil supply in the Kurdish region of Iraq put pressure on oil prices, while the supply interruption concerns caused by the Russia - Ukraine conflict support the price [24]. Methanol Industry - **Prices**: From September 24th to 25th, the prices of some methanol futures contracts increased slightly, and the spot prices of some regions decreased slightly [29]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory decreased, mainly due to increased demand for pick - up and a significant decrease in the unloading volume of imported ships [29]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply in the inland is at a high level, and the demand is affected by the traditional off - season. The overall valuation is neutral [29]. Urea Industry - **Futures Market**: The futures prices of urea showed a weak and volatile pattern. The trading volume decreased, and the long - short ratio decreased slightly [34]. - **Upstream and Downstream**: The prices of upstream raw materials were relatively stable, and the prices of downstream products were mostly unchanged. The cross - regional spreads and basis differences changed to some extent [35][36][37]. - **Supply and Demand**: The daily output of urea was at a high level, the agricultural demand was in the off - season, and the industrial demand was dragged down by the decline in the compound fertilizer operating rate [37]. Polyolefin Industry - **Prices**: From September 24th to 25th, the prices of some polyolefin futures contracts and spot prices increased slightly, and the spreads between some contracts decreased significantly [43]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of PE and PP decreased. The operating rates of PE and PP devices increased slightly, and the downstream weighted operating rates also increased [43]. Polyester Industry - **Prices**: On September 25th, the prices of some polyester products changed. The prices of upstream raw materials such as crude oil and PX also fluctuated. The spreads and processing fees of related products changed [46]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of PX increased, the supply of PTA was expected to shrink, ethylene glycol supply - demand was gradually weakening, short - fiber supply was at a high level, and bottle - chip supply - demand was still loose [46]. Styrene Industry - **Prices**: From September 24th to 25th, the prices of upstream raw materials and styrene - related products changed to some extent. The cash flows of some products improved [49][50][51]. - **Inventory**: The pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased, and the styrene inventory increased [52]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of pure benzene was loose, and the demand support was limited. The overall supply - demand of styrene was relatively loose, and the port inventory had accumulated [53].

Group 1: Natural Rubber Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The 01 contract range is expected to be between 15,000 - 16,500. Follow - up attention should be paid to the raw material output in the peak - production season of the main producing areas. If the raw material output is smooth, consider a short - selling strategy at the upper limit of the range; if the raw material output is not smooth, the rubber price is expected to continue to operate within the range [1]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On September 25, the price of Yunnan Guofu full - latex (SCRWF) in Shanghai was 14,850 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a 0.34% increase. The full - milk basis was - 820 yuan/ton, up 12.20%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber remained unchanged at 14,850 yuan/ton. The non - standard price difference was - 720 yuan/ton, up 6.49%. The FOB intermediate price of cup rubber in the international market was 50.45 Thai baht/kg, up 0.20%, and the FOB intermediate price of glue was 55.30, down 0.90%. The price of natural rubber lumps in Xishuangbanna was 13,200 yuan/ton, and the price of glue was 14,400 yuan/ton, both unchanged. The market mainstream price of raw materials in Hainan was 13,200 yuan/ton, down 1.49%, and the market mainstream price of foreign rubber raw materials in Hainan remained unchanged at 9,100 yuan/ton [1]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread was - 15 yuan/ton, up 50.00%; the 1 - 5 spread was 55 yuan/ton, down 26.67%; the 5 - 9 spread was - 40 yuan/ton, up 11.11% [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, Thailand's production was 421,600 tons, up 1.61%; Indonesia's production was 197,500 tons, up 12.09%; India's production was 45,000 tons, down 2.17%; China's production was 101,300 tons, down 1.30%. The weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires for automobile tires was 73.58%, down 0.08%, and the weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 65.72%, up 0.06%. In August, domestic tire production was 10,295,400 tons, up 9.10%, and the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 63,010,000 pieces, down 5.46%. In July, the total import volume of natural rubber was 474,800 tons, up 2.47%. In August, the import volume of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) was 660,000 tons, up 4.76%. The daily production cost of dry rubber (STR20) in Thailand was 13,007 yuan/ton, up 0.34%, and the daily production profit was - 213 yuan/ton, up 49.53%. The daily production cost of dry rubber (RSS3) was 17,123 yuan/ton, down 0.24%, and the daily production profit was 2,677 yuan/ton, up 1.56% [1]. - **Inventory Change**: The bonded area inventory (bonded + general trade inventory) was 286,639 tons, down 0.95%. The factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE was 44,553 tons, down 3.07%. The weekly inbound rate of dry rubber in the bonded warehouse in Qingdao was 2.47%, up 0.88%, and the outbound rate was 6.44%, down 1.50%. The weekly inbound rate of dry rubber in general trade in Qingdao was 9.62%, up 6.19%, and the outbound rate was 9.58%, up 6.03% [1]. Group 2: Log Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Currently, the log market shows a volatile pattern, with a trading volume of only about 12,000 lots, and the market maintains a narrow - range fluctuation around 800. As the traditional peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October" approach, attention should be paid to whether the shipment volume improves significantly after entering the seasonal peak season. The current daily average shipment volume is around 60,000 cubic meters, but it has not exceeded 70,000 cubic meters. From the perspective of delivery logic, buyers' willingness to take delivery is poor, and sellers' hedging positions suppress the market, lacking a strong upward driving force. If the fundamentals remain in a weak - balance state, the market is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term. Under the current pattern of "weak reality and strong expectation", it is recommended to go long at low prices [2]. Summary by Directory - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On September 26, the price of log 2511 was 803 yuan/cubic meter, up 4.5 yuan/cubic meter from the previous day, with a 0.56% increase; the price of log 2601 was 823 yuan/cubic meter, up 4 yuan/cubic meter; the price of log 2603 was 827 yuan/cubic meter, up 2.5 yuan/cubic meter; the price of log 2605 was 830 yuan/cubic meter, up 2.5 yuan/cubic meter. The 11 - 01 spread was - 15.5 yuan/cubic meter, up 0.5 yuan/cubic meter; the 11 - 03 spread was - 19.5 yuan/cubic meter. The basis of the 11 - contract was - 53 yuan/cubic meter, and the basis of the 01 - contract was - 4 yuan/cubic meter. The price of 3.9A small - sized radiata pine at Rizhao Port was 710 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged; the price of 3.9A medium - sized radiata pine was 750 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged; the price of 3.9A large - sized radiata pine was 880 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged. The price of 4A small - sized radiata pine at Taicang Port was 720 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged; the price of 4A medium - sized radiata pine was 770 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged; the price of 4A large - sized radiata pine was 820 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged. The price of spruce 11.8 at Rizhao Port was 1,150 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged. The CFR price of 4 - meter medium - sized A radiata pine was 114 US dollars/JAS cubic meter, unchanged, and the CFR price of 11.8 - meter spruce was 128 euros/JAS cubic meter, unchanged [2]. - **Cost: Import Cost Calculation**: The RMB - US dollar exchange rate was 7.119, down 0.01. The theoretical import cost was 799.14 yuan/cubic meter, up 0.11 yuan/cubic meter, with a 0% increase, calculated based on a 15% over - length [2]. - **Supply**: In August, the port shipping volume from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea was 1.666 million cubic meters, down 3.87% from July. The number of ships at the port was 44, down 6.38% from July. As of September 19, the total inventory of coniferous logs in China was 2.92 million cubic meters, down 100,000 cubic meters from the previous week [2]. - **Demand**: As of September 12, the daily average shipment volume of logs was 59,800 cubic meters, down 31,000 cubic meters from the previous week. This week, 10 New Zealand log ships are expected to arrive, an increase of 4 from the previous week, with a total arrival volume of about 336,000 cubic meters, an increase of 126,000 cubic meters from the previous week [2]. Group 3: Polysilicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View In terms of fundamentals, the regulation effect on the supply side is less than expected, and the pattern of over - capacity in the industry remains unchanged. At the same time, the inventory of downstream component links is high, and the price has loosened. It is expected that before the National Day holiday, the polysilicon price will mainly remain range - bound, with a possible fluctuation range of 48,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton. Follow - up attention should be paid to whether the national - level policies on capacity clearance and industry stockpiling will issue specific timetables and implementation details, observe the actual operating rate and production - cut implementation of polysilicon enterprises, and track the inventory digestion progress and new order demand of downstream photovoltaic component factories [3]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On September 25, the average price of N - type re -投料 was 52,550 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a 0.10% increase. The average price of N - type granular silicon was 50,500 yuan/ton, up 1,000 yuan/ton, with a 2.02% increase. The N - type material basis (average price) was 1,185 yuan/ton, up 5.80%. The average price of N - type silicon wafers (210mm) was 1.70 yuan/piece, unchanged. The average price of N - type silicon wafers (210R) was 1.39 yuan/piece, down 0.71%. The average price of single - crystal Topcon battery cells (210R) was 0.288 yuan/piece, unchanged. The average price of Topcon components (210mm, distributed) was 0.683 yuan/watt, unchanged. The average price of N - type 210mm components for centralized projects was 0.679 yuan/watt, up 0.15% [3]. - **Futures Price and Inter - month Spread**: The main contract price was 21,365 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton, with a - 0.03% decrease. The spread between the current month and the first - continuous contract was 50 yuan/ton, down 91.80%. The spread between the first - continuous and the second - continuous contract was - 2,315 yuan/ton, up 3.34%. The spread between the second - continuous and the third - continuous contract was 420 yuan/ton, up 20.00%. The spread between the third - continuous and the fourth - continuous contract was 295 yuan/ton, up 637.50%. The spread between the fourth - continuous and the fifth - continuous contract was - 180 yuan/ton, up 20.00%. The spread between the fifth - continuous and the sixth - continuous contract was 240 yuan/ton, up 637.50% [3]. - **Fundamental Data (Weekly)**: The silicon wafer production was 13.78 GW, down 1.01%. The polysilicon production was 3.11 kilotons, up 0.32% [3]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: The polysilicon production was 131.7 kilotons, up 23.31%. The polysilicon import volume was 0.1 kilotons, down 9.63%. The polysilicon export volume was 0.3 kilotons, up 40.12%. The net export volume of polysilicon was 0.2 kilotons, up 94.25%. The silicon wafer production was 56.04 GW, up 6.24%. The silicon wafer import volume was 0.05 kilotons, up 74.18%. The silicon wafer export volume was

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - The reports present the latest data and changes in various financial products including stock index futures spreads, bond futures spreads, precious metals, container shipping, etc., which can help investors understand the market trends and price movements of these products. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index Futures Spreads - **IF**: The current - spot spread is 4.78, with a 23.30% change from the previous day and a 12.00% historical 1 - year quantile. Various inter - term spreads also show different values and changes [1]. - **IH**: The current - spot spread is 0.86, with a 0.57 change from the previous day and a 59.00% historical 1 - year quantile. Different inter - term spreads have their own values and quantiles [1]. - **IC**: The current - spot spread is 1.60%, with a 0.10% change from the previous day and a 25.00% historical 1 - year quantile. Inter - term spreads vary [1]. - **IM**: The current - spot spread is - 224.71, with a 6.31 change from the previous day and a 25.00% historical 1 - year quantile. Inter - term spreads are also provided [1]. - **Cross - variety ratios**: Such as CSI 300/SSE 50, CSI 500/SSE 50, etc., show different values and changes [1]. Bond Futures Spreads - **TS**: The basis is 0.0177, with a 0.0235 change from the previous day and a 12.80% historical quantile. Inter - term spreads and cross - variety spreads are also presented [2]. - **TF**: The basis is 1.1992, with a 0.1310 change from the previous day and a 41.50% historical quantile. Inter - term spreads and cross - variety spreads are given [2]. - **T**: The basis is - 0.1123, with a 0.5994 change from the previous day and a 2.50% historical quantile. Inter - term spreads and cross - variety spreads are provided [2]. - **TL**: The basis is 0.0860, with a 0.0140 change from the previous day and a 43.30% historical quantile. Inter - term spreads and cross - variety spreads are included [2]. Precious Metals - **Domestic Futures**: The AU2512 contract closed at 854.72 on September 25, down 0.61% from the previous day; the AG2512 contract closed at 10411, up 0.13% [3]. - **Foreign Futures**: The COMEX gold主力 contract closed at 3780.50 on September 25, up 0.32% from the previous day; the COMEX silver主力 contract closed at 45.47, up 3.07% [3]. - **Spot Prices**: London gold was at 3748.41 on September 25, up 0.34% from the previous day; London silver was at 45.13, up 2.83% [3]. - **Basis**: Gold TD - SHFE gold主力 was - 2.73, with a 1.00 change from the previous day and a 43.30% historical 1 - year quantile; silver TD - SHFE silver主力 was - 58, with a - 10 change from the previous day and a 2.40% historical 1 - year quantile [3]. - **Ratios**: COMEX gold/silver was 83.14, down 2.67% from the previous day; SHFE gold/silver was 82.10, down 0.75% [3]. - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.18, up 0.5% from the previous day; the US dollar index was 98.46, up 0.61% [3]. - **Inventory and Holdings**: SHFE gold inventory was 65634 kg on September 25, up 8.41% from the previous day; SHFE silver inventory was 1156855 kg, down 0.43% [3]. Container Shipping - **Spot Quotes**: On September 26, MAERSK's Shanghai - Europe future 6 - week freight rate was 1622 USD/FEU, down 2.47% from the previous day; CMA CGM's was 1904, up 4.96% [4]. - **Container Shipping Indexes**: The SCFIS (European route) settlement price index on September 22 was 1254.92, down 12.87% from September 15; the SCFI comprehensive index on September 19 was 1198.21, down 14.30% from September 12 [4]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: The EC2602 contract on September 25 was 1696.2, up 6.81% from the previous day; the basis of the main contract was - 227.4, with a 4393.68% change from the previous day [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The global container shipping capacity supply on September 26 was 3310.22 TEU, with no change from the previous day; the Shanghai port on - time rate in August was 18.31%, down 43.80% from July [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports [1][4][6] 2. Core Views Steel - Steel supply and demand have increased month - on - month, with the apparent demand of five major steel products rising to 8.74 million tons and inventory starting to decline. The supply - demand gap has narrowed. Considering high steel exports, seasonal improvement in demand, and a positive macro - environment, steel prices are expected to remain in a high - level oscillatory range. The recommended operation is to try long positions with a light position and hold short positions on the January hot - rolled coil and rebar spread [1] Iron Ore - As of the previous day's close, the iron ore 2601 contract showed a strong oscillatory trend. Supply - side global shipments decreased week - on - week while port arrivals increased. Demand - side, steel mill profit margins slightly declined, but daily hot - metal production increased. The fundamentals improved slightly, but were still insufficient for the peak season. The port inventory increased, and the steel mill inventory also rose. Iron ore is in a tight - balance situation, with a recommended trading range of 780 - 850. The strategy is to go long on iron ore 2601 on dips and recommend an arbitrage of long iron ore and short coke [4][6] Coke - As of the previous day's close, the coke futures rebounded. Spot prices are expected to gradually rise, with a possible 2 - 3 round increase. Supply - side, rising coking coal prices led to some losses for coke enterprises and a decline in production. Demand - side, steel mills continued to resume production, and hot - metal production increased. Inventory - side, coke plants and ports reduced inventory, while steel mills increased inventory. The strategy is to go short on the coke 2601 contract at high levels in the range of 1650 - 1800 and recommend an arbitrage of long coking coal and short coke [6] 3. Summary by Directory Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices in different regions showed little change, with some contract prices fluctuating slightly. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China increased by 10 yuan/ton to 3290 yuan/ton, and the 10 - contract price increased by 3 yuan/ton to 3074 yuan/ton [1] Cost and Profit - The cost of steel billets remained stable, while the cost of some steel products changed slightly. Profits of different steel products in various regions also changed, such as the East China hot - rolled coil profit increasing by 1 yuan to 143 yuan [1] Production - The daily average hot - metal production increased by 1.0 to 242.0, a 0.4% increase. The production of five major steel products increased by 1.1% to 864 tons. The production of rebar remained unchanged, while the production of hot - rolled coil decreased by 0.7% [1] Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 0.6% to 15.106 million tons. Rebar inventory decreased by 2.1% to 6.363 million tons, and hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 0.7% to 3.805 million tons [1] Transaction and Demand - The building materials transaction volume increased by 12.9% to 104,000 tons. The apparent demand of five major steel products increased by 2.8% to 8.741 million tons, and the apparent demand of rebar increased by 5.0% to 2.204 million tons [1] Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs and spot prices of different iron ore varieties increased slightly, with the 5 - 9 spread and 1 - 5 spread decreasing by 2.4%, and the 9 - 1 spread increasing by 2.4% [4] Supply - The 45 - port weekly arrivals increased by 13.2% to 26.75 million tons, while the global weekly shipments decreased by 6.9% to 33.248 million tons. The national monthly import volume increased by 0.6% to 105.225 million tons [4] Demand - The daily average hot - metal production of 247 steel mills increased by 0.6% to 242.4 tons, and the 45 - port daily average unloading volume increased by 2.4% to 339.2 tons. The national monthly pig iron and crude steel production decreased by 1.4% and 2.9% respectively [4] Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 0.9% to 139.3097 million tons, the 247 - steel - mill imported ore inventory increased by 3.5% to 93.094 million tons, and the inventory - available days of 64 steel mills increased by 9.1% to 24 days [4] Coke and Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - Coke and coking coal contract prices increased, with the coking profit decreasing by 11 yuan/ton and the sample coal - mine profit increasing by 4.2% [6] Supply - Coke production decreased by 0.6%, while coking coal production increased, with raw coal production increasing by 1.3% and clean coal production increasing by 1.8% [6] Demand - The hot - metal production of 247 steel mills increased by 0.6%, and the demand for coke was supported [6] Inventory - Coke inventory increased slightly, with coke plants and ports reducing inventory and steel mills increasing inventory. Coking coal inventory also increased, with coal mines and ports reducing inventory and coke plants and steel mills increasing inventory [6]

Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View The steel price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillating trend. The reference range for rebar is 3100 - 3350 yuan, and for hot - rolled coils is 3300 - 3500 yuan. It is recommended to try long positions with a light position and pay attention to the seasonal repair of apparent demand. Hold short positions on the January hot - rolled coil - rebar price spread [1]. Summary by Directory - **Steel Prices and Spreads**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in different regions and contracts showed varying degrees of increase. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China increased by 10 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract of hot - rolled coil increased by 14 yuan/ton [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: The billet price decreased by 30 yuan, while the slab price remained unchanged. The profits of hot - rolled coils in different regions decreased, with the East China hot - rolled coil profit decreasing by 30 yuan [1]. - **Production**: The daily average hot - metal output increased by 0.4 to 241.0, a 0.2% increase. The output of five major steel products decreased by 1.8 to 855.5, a 0.2% decrease. Rebar production decreased by 5.5 to 206.5, a 2.6% decrease, while hot - rolled coil production increased by 1.4 to 326.5, a 0.4% increase [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products increased by 5.1 to 1519.7, a 0.3% increase. Rebar inventory decreased by 3.6 to 650.3, a 0.5% decrease, and hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 4.7 to 378.0, a 1.3% increase [1]. - **Transaction and Demand**: The building materials trading volume increased by 1.2 to 10.4, a 12.9% increase. The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 7.0 to 850.3, a 0.8% increase. The apparent demand for rebar increased by 12.0 to 210.0, a 6.0% increase, while the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils decreased by 4.3 to 321.8, a 1.3% decrease [1]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View The iron ore market is in a balanced and slightly tight pattern. The price is expected to oscillate with an upward bias, with a reference range of 780 - 850. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract of iron ore at low prices and conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on hot - rolled coils [4]. Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: The basis of different types of iron ore decreased, for example, the 01 contract basis of PB powder decreased by 44.6 to 37.9, a 54.0% decrease. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 1.0 to 21.0, a 5.0% increase [4]. - **Supply**: The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports increased by 312.7 to 2675.0, a 13.2% increase, while the global weekly shipping volume decreased by 248.3 to 3324.8, a 6.9% decrease. The monthly national import volume increased by 61.5 to 10522.5, a 0.6% increase [4]. - **Demand**: The weekly average hot - metal output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.5 to 241.0, a 0.2% increase. The weekly average port clearance volume at 45 ports increased by 7.9 to 339.2, a 2.4% increase. The monthly national pig - iron output decreased by 100.5 to 6979.3, a 1.4% decrease, and the monthly national crude - steel output decreased by 229.0 to 7736.9, a 2.9% decrease [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: The 45 - port inventory increased by 129.9 to 13930.97, a 0.9% increase. The inventory of imported ore in 247 steel mills increased by 316.4 to 9309.4, a 3.5% increase. The available days of inventory in 64 steel mills increased by 2.0 to 22.0, a 10.0% increase [4]. Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View - **Coke**: It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract of coke at low prices, with a reference range of 1650 - 1800. Consider an arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke. - **Coking Coal**: It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract of coking coal at low prices, with a reference range of 1150 - 1300. Consider an arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Summary by Directory Coke - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of coke contracts and spot in different regions increased to varying degrees. For example, the 01 contract of coke increased by 13 to 1730, a 0.7% increase. The coking profit decreased by 11 to - 54 [6]. - **Supply**: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased slightly by 0.1% to 66.7 [6]. - **Demand**: The hot - metal output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.5 to 241.0, a 0.2% increase [6]. - **Inventory Changes**: The total coke inventory increased by 8.9 to 915.2, a 1.0% increase. The coking - plant inventory decreased, while the steel - mill and port inventories increased [6]. Coking Coal - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of coking - coal contracts and spot in different regions changed. The 01 contract of coking coal increased by 7 to 1225, a 0.6% increase. The sample coal - mine profit increased by 17 to 421, a 4.2% increase [6]. - **Supply**: The main - producing - area coal mines continued to resume production, and the logistics improved. The coal - mine sales and prices increased. The imported Mongolian coal price increased, and the port will be closed for 7 days during the National Day holiday [6]. - **Demand**: The hot - metal output continued to rise, the coking - plant operation was stable, and the downstream restocking demand increased [6]. - **Inventory Changes**: The coal - mine, port, and steel - mill inventories decreased, while the coal - washing plant, coking - plant, and port inventories increased [6].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Copper - Grasberg mine accident intensifies concerns about tight global copper supply, and the copper price is expected to rise in the long - term. Short - term prices are driven up by mine disruptions, with support at 81000 - 81500 [2]. Aluminum - Alumina is in a "high supply, high inventory, weak demand" situation, with the short - term price range of the main contract expected to be 2850 - 3150 yuan/ton. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level after a decline, with the main contract reference range of 20600 - 21000 yuan/ton [5]. Aluminum Alloy - Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to remain in a high - level shock, with the main contract reference range of 20200 - 20600 yuan/ton [7]. Zinc - The supply of zinc is expected to be loose, and the short - term price may rise due to macro - driving, but the fundamentals provide limited upward elasticity. The main contract reference range is 21500 - 22500 [10]. Tin - The supply side of tin is strong, supporting the tin price to continue the high - level shock, with the operating range of 265000 - 285000 [12]. Nickel - The nickel market has a weak macro - atmosphere, and the price is expected to fluctuate within the range of 119000 - 124000 [14]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market has firm raw material prices and cost support, but the peak - season demand fails to meet expectations. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate and adjust, with the main contract reference range of 12800 - 13200 [16][17]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market is in a tight balance. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate and organize, with the main price center in the range of 70000 - 75000 [18]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 80045 yuan/ton, up 0.04%. The refined - scrap price difference is 1879 yuan/ton, up 4.45%. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the electrolytic copper production was 117.15 million tons, down 0.24%; the import volume was 26.43 million tons, down 10.99% [2]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price is 20680 yuan/ton, unchanged. The alumina prices in various regions are all slightly down. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the alumina production was 773.82 million tons, up 1.15%; the electrolytic aluminum production was 373.26 million tons, up 0.30% [5]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 20850 yuan/ton, unchanged. The refined - scrap price differences in various regions are all down. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the regenerated aluminum alloy ingot production was 61.50 million tons, down 1.60%; the primary aluminum alloy ingot production was 27.10 million tons, up 1.88% [7]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 21820 yuan/ton, down 0.27%. The import profit and loss is - 3230 yuan/ton. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the refined zinc production was 62.62 million tons, up 3.88%; the import volume was 2.57 million tons, up 43.30% [10]. Tin - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 tin price is 271400 yuan/ton, up 0.26%. The import profit and loss is - 13025.42 yuan/ton. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, the tin ore import was 10278 tons, down 13.71%; the refined tin production was 15940 tons, up 15.42% [12]. Nickel - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 122450 yuan/ton, up 0.41%. The import profit and loss is - 1374 yuan/ton. - **Fundamental Data**: The Chinese refined nickel production is 32200 tons, up 1.26%; the import volume is 17536 tons, down 8.46% [14]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: The 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) price is 13100 yuan/ton, unchanged. - **Fundamental Data**: The Chinese 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production is 171.33 million tons, down 3.83%; the import volume is 11.72 million tons, up 60.48% [16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spread**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 73850 yuan/ton, unchanged. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the lithium carbonate production was 85240 tons, up 4.55%; the demand was 104023 tons, up 8.25% [18].

Group 1: Rubber Industry - Report industry investment rating: Not provided - Core view: Supply is affected by rainy season and typhoons, cost support weakens, downstream tire factory restocking is mostly done, inventory reduction slows. Demand has some enterprises short - stocked but overall sales are below expectations. Focus on typhoon impact, 01 contract range is 15000 - 16500, and follow raw material output in peak season [1] - Summary of relevant catalogs: - Spot prices: Yunnan Guofu full - latex increased by 0.68%, cup glue in the international market rose 0.20%, etc [1] - Monthly spreads: 9 - 1 spread decreased by 220.00%, 1 - 5 spread increased by 87.50% [1] - Fundamentals: July Thailand's production increased by 1.61%, July Indonesia's production rose by 12.09%, August domestic tire production increased by 9.10% [1] - Inventory changes: Bonded area inventory decreased by 0.95%, natural rubber factory - warehouse futures inventory in SHFE decreased by 3.07% [1] Group 2: Log Industry - Report industry investment rating: Not provided - Core view: Logs are in a volatile pattern, with low trading volume. As the traditional peak season approaches, observe if the shipment volume improves. In the short - term, the market is expected to fluctuate within a range, and it is recommended to go long at low prices [3] - Summary of relevant catalogs: - Futures and spot prices: Log 2511 contract decreased by 2 yuan/cubic meter, major delivery - product spot prices were stable [3] - Cost: Import theoretical cost increased by 0.51 yuan [3] - Supply and demand: Port shipment volume decreased by 3.87%, demand side's daily outbound volume decreased by 5% [3] - Inventory: National coniferous log inventory decreased by 3.31% [3] Group 3: Glass and Soda Ash Industry - Report industry investment rating: Not provided - Core view: Soda ash rebounds and then weakens, with an over - supply situation. Glass was driven up by rumors, but the mid - stream inventory is high and the industry still has an over - supply problem [4] - Summary of relevant catalogs: - Glass prices: North China, Central China, and South China quotes increased by 0.87%, 0.88%, and 0.81% respectively [4] - Soda ash prices: Main regional prices remained unchanged [4] - Supply: Soda ash weekly output decreased by 2.02%, float glass daily melting volume decreased by 0.47% [4] - Inventory: Glass factory inventory decreased by 1.10%, soda ash factory inventory decreased by 2.33% [4] - Real estate data: New construction area increased by 0.09%, sales area decreased by 6.50% [4] Group 4: Polysilicon Industry - Report industry investment rating: Not provided - Core view: The supply - side regulation effect is not as expected, the industry has over - capacity. Polysilicon prices are expected to fluctuate within the range of 48,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton before the National Day [5] - Summary of relevant catalogs: - Spot prices: N - type re - feeding material average price decreased by 0.28%, N - type 210mm component for centralized projects increased by 0.15% [5] - Futures prices: The main contract increased by 2.23% [5] - Fundamentals: Weekly polysilicon production decreased by 0.64%, monthly production increased by 23.31% [5] - Inventory: Polysilicon inventory decreased by 6.85%, silicon wafer inventory increased by 1.93% [5] Group 5: Industrial Silicon Industry - Report industry investment rating: Not provided - Core view: From September to October, the supply of industrial silicon increases, and the market will gradually become more balanced. It is expected to be in a volatile state, with a price range of 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton [6] - Summary of relevant catalogs: - Spot prices and basis: East China oxygen - containing S15530 industrial silicon remained unchanged, the basis of N - type material (average price) decreased by 53.14% [6] - Monthly spreads: 2510 - 2511 spread increased by 14.29%, 2511 - 2512 spread increased by 1.25% [6] - Fundamentals: National industrial silicon production increased by 14.01%, national开工率 increased by 6.20% [6] - Inventory: Xinjiang inventory decreased by 1.07%, social inventory increased by 0.74% [6]