广发早知道-汇总版 投资咨询业务资格： 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88830760 E-Mail：zhaoliang@gf.com.cn 目录： 商品期货： 有色金属： 金融衍生品： 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银 集运指数 铜、镍、不锈钢、锡、碳酸锂 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭、铁合金 农产品： 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、花生、红枣、苹果 能源化工： 原油、PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、短纤、尿素、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、 PP 特殊商品： 橡胶、玻璃纯碱 2025 年 4 月 8 日星期二 证监许可【2011】1292 号 组长联系信息： 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020- 88818009 邮箱：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 刘珂（投资咨询资格：Z0016336） 电话：020-88818026 邮箱：qhliuke@gf.com.cn 叶倩宁（投资咨询资格：Z0016628） 电话：020- 88818017 邮箱：yeqianning@gf.com.cn 周敏波（投资咨询资格：Z0010559） 电话：0 ...

Report Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Core View - Due to the escalation of tariff games and heightened expectations of monetary easing, as well as the influence of risk aversion, the bond market has risen significantly. Short - term risk aversion still favors the bond market, and the Treasury bond futures market may be strong. However, as bond yields approach the previous low of the year and the downward trend of capital interest rates has stalled, it may restrict the decline of long - term bond yields. Attention should be paid to the central bank's capital injection and subsequent pro - consumption and loose fiscal policies, which may bring fluctuations to the bond market [1][6][13] Summary by Directory 1. Tariff Game Escalation, Rising Expectations of Monetary Easing - The US announced a "reciprocal tariff" plan, increasing tariffs on China by 34%, with cumulative tariffs potentially exceeding 60%. China imposed a 34% tariff on all US imports in response. The tariff game and trade friction may enter a deeper stage [1] - In the previous round of trade frictions in 2018, China's exports to the US declined rapidly. This time, with higher tariff increases, short - term net exports are likely to fall. In Q1 2025, the contribution rate of net exports to China's GDP reached 45.8%. Under the pressure of external demand, the market's expectation of looser monetary policy has increased. Short - term reserve requirement ratio cuts may be relatively mature, while interest rate cuts still need fundamental signals [2] 2. Risk Aversion Drives the Stock - Bond Seesaw to Favor the Bond Market - The current trade game has entered a deeper stage, and there is great uncertainty about the actual implementation of tariffs, negotiation conditions, and time, which may suppress risk appetite in the short term. The stock market declined significantly today, which is favorable for the bond market from the perspective of the stock - bond seesaw. In the medium term, domestic policies are sufficient, and the domestic economy has resilience, but the short - term decline in global risk appetite will continue to support the bond market [6] 3. Capital Interest Rates Have Not Declined Further, Need to Pay Attention to the Impact of Subsequent Growth - Stabilizing Policies on the Bond Market Rhythm - Since early April, capital interest rates and certificate of deposit rates have declined, which has boosted the bond market. However, the decline of capital interest rates has stalled. On April 7, the central bank conducted a net withdrawal of 301.7 billion yuan in the open market, and the 7 - day capital interest rate of depository institutions was around 1.75%, and the non - bank capital interest rate was around 1.8%, not lower than before the Tomb - Sweeping Festival [7] - As of April 7, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond has dropped to around 1.64%, only 4BP away from the January low. Currently, the decline in bond yields is mainly due to risk aversion and easing expectations. Considering the short - term pressure of RMB depreciation, it is uncertain whether capital interest rates can decline further. As bond yields approach the previous low, a 35 - 40BP interest rate cut is gradually being priced in, but the policy rhythm is still uncertain. Fiscal policies are likely to be strengthened in Q2, and subsequent capital interest rate trends and growth - stabilizing policies will determine the bond market rhythm [8] 4. Outlook for Treasury Bond Futures - Affected by expectations of monetary easing, risk aversion, and the stock - bond seesaw effect, Treasury bond futures opened higher and closed up today. Short - term risk aversion still favors the bond market, but the lack of further decline in capital interest rates may restrict the decline of long - term bond yields. Attention should be paid to the central bank's capital injection and bank - to - bank capital. Subsequent pro - consumption and loose fiscal policies may bring fluctuations to the bond market. It is recommended that investors hold long positions in the short term and stop profits in a timely manner if capital interest rates rise marginally [13]

| 钢材产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年4月7日 | | | 周敏波 | Z0010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 町值 | 张庆 | 某差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3230 | 3240 | -10 | -36 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3260 | 3270 | -10 | -6 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3490 | 3490 | O | 224 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3164 | 3166 | -2 | 66 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 3231 | 3247 | -16 | -1 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3266 | 3276 | -10 | -36 | | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3350 | 3360 | -10 | -43 | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货(华北) | 3300 | 3310 | -10 | -93 | | | 热卷现货(华 ...

| 股指期货价差日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [ 2011 ] 1292号 | | | | | | | 2025年4月7日 | | | | 叶倩宁 | Z0016628 | | 价差 | 品种 | 最新值 | 较前一日变化 | 历史1年分位数 | 全历史分位数 | | | F期现价差 | -24.50 | 2.28 | 8.60% | 16.20% | | 期现价差 | H期现价差 | -4.25 | -1.83 | 25.00% | 38.70% | | | IC期现价差 | -23.10 | 7.38 | 41.80% | 49.50% | | | IM期现价差 | -171.46 | 5.80 | 50.00% | 1.50% | | | 次月-当月 | -5.80 | -2.60 | 38.90% | 43.50% | | | 季月-当月 | -24.60 | -0.20 | 22.50% | 35.80% | | | 远月-当月 | -71.00 | -0.20 | 5.70% | 25.10 ...

3月21日 单位 3月28日 涨跌 张跌幅 地区 -1.10% 中国 360.00 364.00 -4.0 192.3 -2.5 -1.30% 万/立方米 山东 189.80 131.46 江苏 128.45 -2 30% -3.0 需求: (周慶) 日均出阵量 3月21日 地区 3月28日 涨跌 涨跌幅 单位 6.42 中国 6.70 0.28 4% 万/立方米 -2% 3.30 3.38 -0.08 山东 江苏 0.35 15% 2.41 2.76 原木日均出库量(万方) 原木主要港口库存(万方) 750 650 550 450 350 250 150 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/111/112/1 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/110/111/112/11/1 2022 -- 2023 · =2024 ·2025 =2022 =2024 -2023 · 2025 辐射松3.8中A现货价(元/立方米) 辐射松4米中A: CFR价(美元/JAS立方米 220 870 200 2020 2022 850 2025 2023 ...

| 油脂产业期现日报 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 = 1 1× RU | | | | | | | | | | | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 | 壬泽辉 | Z0019938 | 2025年4月7日 | | | | | | | | | | 思 | 4月3日 | 4月2日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | | | | | | | | 江苏一级 | 8320 | 8370 | -0.60% | 现价 | -20 | 7902 | 7986 | Y2505 | -84 | -1.05% | 期价 | | 墓差 | Y2505 | 418 | 384 | 34 | 8.85% | 05+270 | 05+280 | 现货墓差报价 | 江苏4月 | -10 | - | | 仓单 | O | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 棕榈油 | | | | | | | | 4月3日 | 4月2日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 973 ...

| 天然橡胶产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年4月7日 | | | | 张晓珍 | Z0003135 | | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 4月3日 | 4月2日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 云南国营会乱胶(SCRWF):上海 | 16050 | 16350 | -300 | -1.83% | | | 全乳基差(切换至2505合约) | -245 | -375 | 130 | 34.67% | | | 泰标混合胶报价 | 16000 | 16500 | -500 | -3.03% | 元/呼 | | 非标价差 | -295 | -225 | -70 | -31.11% | | | 品种 | 4月2日 | 4月1日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 杯胶:国际市场:FOB中间价 | 60.45 | 60.35 | 0.10 | 0.17% | | | 胶水:国际市场:FOB中间价 | 68.50 | 68.50 | 0.00 | ...

聚酯产业链日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 张晓珍 Z0003135 | 上游价格 | 下游聚酯产品价格及现金流 | 品种 | 4月4日 | 张跌幅 | 单位 | 品种 | 涨跌 | 4月3日 | 涨跌 | 4月3日 | 4月2日 | 旅跌幅 | 单位 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 布伦特原油(6月) | 65.58 | 70.14 | -4.56 | -6.5% | POY150/48价格 | 6855 | 6855 | 0.0% | 0 | 美元/桶 | -7.4% | -4.96 | FDY150/96价格 | 0 | WTI原油(5月) | 66.95 | 7080 | 7080 | 0.0% | 61.99 | | | -5.2% | DTY150/48价格 | -25 | -0.3% | CFR日本石 ...

| 硅铁 (SF505) | 6098 | 5986 | 112 | 1.87% | 75.00% | 折算价:72硅铁合格块:内蒙-天津仓单 | 0 | 折算价:6517硅锰:内蒙-湖北仓单 | 硅锰(SM505) | 6150 | 0.00% | 25.00% | 6150 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 66 | 螺纹钢 (RB2505) | 3230 | HRB40020mm:上海 | 3164 | 41.50% | 2.09% | Q235B: 4.75mm: 上海 | 3350 | -10 | 热卷 (HC2510) | 3360 | -0.30% | 16.40% | | | | | | 29 | 818 | 789 | 3.74% | 26.90% | 折算价:62.5%巴混粉(BRBF):淡水河谷:日照港 | 铁矿石 (12505) | 1535 | -93 | 12.77% | 折 ...

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