1. Investment Rating for the Industry No investment rating for the industry is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel - The steel market is affected by both weak steel demand and the expected contraction in coal supply. In September, the seasonal rebound in steel apparent demand and high - level steel exports will help digest production, and steel inventory is expected to decrease. Steel prices are likely to remain range - bound, with螺纹 steel fluctuating between 3100 - 3350 yuan and热卷 between 3300 - 3500 yuan. In late September, prices dropped significantly, and support levels near 3100 for螺纹 steel and 3500 for热卷 should be monitored. Selling out - of - the - money put options is recommended [1]. Iron Ore - As of the previous day's close, the iron ore 2601 contract showed a downward - trending oscillation. The supply side will see the average arrival volume at ports first increase and then decrease. The demand side shows that steel mills' restocking demand has increased. The fundamentals have slightly improved, but are still insufficient in the peak season, with raw materials stronger than finished products. Looking ahead, iron ore will be supported by high steel mill profitability and low port inventory year - on - year, but there is a risk of port inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter. The iron ore market is currently in a tight - balance state, but is dragged down by weak finished products. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the range of 750 - 830. Shorting the iron ore 2601 contract on rallies and the arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on coking coal are recommended [4]. Coke - As of the previous day's close, coke futures showed a weak downward trend. The spot price is expected to gradually rebound, with a possible 2 - 3 rounds of increases. The supply side has seen some coke enterprises' production decline due to losses, while the demand side has seen continuous small increases in molten iron production. The inventory is moderately increased, and the pre - holiday restocking is nearly over. The market will focus on post - holiday supply - demand changes. Speculative investors are advised to short the coke 2601 contract on rallies, with a reference range of 1550 - 1750, and the arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on coke is recommended [6]. Coking Coal - The coking coal futures showed a weak downward trend. The spot market is relatively strong, with increased downstream purchasing willingness. The supply side has seen coal mines resume production, and the demand side has seen increased restocking demand. The inventory is moderately increased, but the pre - holiday restocking is nearly over. The market will shift to trading the supply - demand situation and market expectations in October. The coking coal price may peak and decline as demand weakens. It is recommended to short the coking coal 2601 contract on rallies, with a reference range of 1150 - 1300, and the arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on coking coal is recommended [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Prices and Spreads -螺纹 steel and热卷 prices generally declined. For example,螺纹 steel spot prices in East China, North China, and South China decreased by 10 yuan, and热卷 spot prices in East China, North China, and South China also decreased by 10 yuan [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet and slab prices remained unchanged. Some steel production costs and profits changed slightly, such as the cost of Jiangsu electric - furnace螺纹 steel increasing by 1 yuan, and the profit of East China热卷 increasing by 1 yuan [1]. Production - The daily average molten iron output increased by 1.0 to 242.0, a 0.4% increase. The output of five major steel products increased by 9.4 to 864.9, a 1.1% increase. The output of螺纹 steel remained unchanged, while the output of热卷 decreased by 2.3 to 324.2, a 0.7% decrease [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 9.1 to 1510.6, a 0.6% decrease. The螺纹 steel inventory decreased by 14.0 to 636.3, a 2.1% decrease, while the热卷 inventory increased by 2.5 to 380.5, a 0.7% increase [1]. Demand - The building materials trading volume decreased by 0.4 to 11.0, a 3.3% decrease. The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 23.7 to 874.1, a 2.8% increase, and the apparent demand for螺纹 steel increased by 10.4 to 220.4, a 5.0% increase [1]. Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The inventory cost of various iron ore powders decreased, and the spot prices at Rizhao Port also declined. For example, the inventory cost of PB powder decreased by 7.7 to 824.9, a 0.9% decrease, and the spot price of PB powder at Rizhao Port decreased by 7.0 to 778.0, a 0.9% decrease [4]. Supply - The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 314.5 to 2360.5, an 11.8% decrease, while the global weekly shipping volume increased by 150.6 to 3475.4, a 4.5% increase. The monthly national import volume increased by 61.5 to 10522.5, a 0.6% increase [4]. Demand - The weekly average daily molten iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 1.4 to 242.4, a 0.6% increase. The weekly average daily port clearance volume decreased by 2.8 to 336.4, a 0.8% decrease. The monthly national pig iron output decreased by 100.5 to 6979.3, a 1.4% decrease, and the monthly national crude steel output decreased by 229.0 to 7736.9, a 2.9% decrease [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 69.3 to 14000.28, a 0.5% increase. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 427.0 to 9736.4, a 4.6% increase, and the available inventory days of 64 steel mills increased by 2.0 to 24.0, a 9.1% increase [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Coke - Coke futures prices declined. For example, the coke 01 contract decreased by 46 to 1647, a 2.7% decrease. The supply side saw a slight decrease in the daily average output of all - sample coking plants, while the demand side saw an increase in molten iron production. The total coke inventory increased, with coking plants and ports reducing inventory and steel mills increasing inventory [6]. Coking Coal - Coking coal futures prices also declined. For example, the coking coal 01 contract decreased by 43 to 1154, a 3.6% decrease. The supply side saw an increase in coal mine production, and the demand side saw an increase in restocking demand. The inventory increased moderately, with mines and ports reducing inventory and other sectors increasing inventory [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View No relevant information provided. 3. Summary by Categories Black Series - Silicon Iron (SF511): Futures price is 5678, spot price is 5610, basis is 68, basis rate is 1.21%, historical quantile is 90% [1] - Silicon Manganese (SM601): Futures price is 5950, spot price is 5820, basis is 130, basis rate is 2.23%, historical quantile is 30% [1] - Rebar (RB2601): Futures price is 3240, spot price is 3097, basis is 143, basis rate is 4.62%, historical quantile is 61.90% [1] - Hot Rolled Coil (HC2601): Futures price is 3289, spot price is 3350, basis is -61, basis rate is -1.85%, historical quantile is 44.00% [1] - Iron Ore (I2601): Futures price is 837, spot price is 784, basis is 53, basis rate is 6.80%, historical quantile is 44.70% [1] - Coke (J2601): Futures price is 1647, spot price is 1613, basis is 34, basis rate is 2.09%, historical quantile is 44.16% [1] - Coking Coal (JM2601): Futures price is 1160, spot price is 1154, basis is 6, basis rate is 0.52%, historical quantile is 24.80% [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper (CU2511): Futures price is 82370, spot price is 85510, basis is -3140, basis rate is -3.67%, historical quantile is 28.75% [1] - Aluminum (AL2511): Futures price is 20690, spot price is 20730, basis is -40, basis rate is -0.19%, historical quantile is 41.04% [1] - Alumina (AO2601): Futures price is 2904, spot price is 2982, basis is 78, basis rate is 2.61%, historical quantile is 49.55% [1] - Zinc (ZN2511): Futures price is 21560, spot price is 21800, basis is -240, basis rate is -1.10%, historical quantile is 20.83% [1] - Tin (SN2511): Futures price is 272410, spot price is 271400, basis is 1010, basis rate is 0.37%, historical quantile is 61.45% [1] - Nickel (NI2511): Futures price is 121100, spot price is 121200, basis is -100, basis rate is -0.08%, historical quantile is 300 [1] - Stainless Steel (SS2511): Futures price is 13220, spot price is 12760, basis is 460, basis rate is 3.61%, historical quantile is 86.69% [1] - Lithium Carbonate (LC2511): Futures price is 73920, spot price is 73550, basis is -370, basis rate is -0.50%, historical quantile is 49.11% [1] - Industrial Silicon (SI2511): Futures price is 8610, spot price is 840, basis is 7770, basis rate is 9.25%, historical quantile is 57.93% [1] Precious Metals - Gold (AU2512): Futures price is 866.5, spot price is 865, basis is -1.5, basis rate is -0.17%, historical quantile is 11.80% [1] - Silver (AG2512): Futures price is 10939, spot price is 10878, basis is -61, basis rate is -0.56%, historical quantile is 5.30% [1] Agricultural Products - Rapeseed Meal (RM601): Futures price is 2416, spot price is 2530, basis is 114, basis rate is 4.72%, historical quantile is 66.30% [1] - Rapeseed Oil (Ole01): Futures price is 10093, spot price is 10340, basis is 247, basis rate is 2.45%, historical quantile is 75.90% [1] - Corn (C2511): Futures price is 2159, spot price is 2280, basis is 121, basis rate is 5.60%, historical quantile is 92.40% [1] - Corn Starch (CS2511): Futures price is 2483, spot price is 2550, basis is 67, basis rate is 2.70%, historical quantile is 30.40% [1] - Soybean Meal (NSe01): Futures price is 2890, spot price is 2933, basis is -43, basis rate is -1.47%, historical quantile is 29.90% [1] - Soybean Oil (V2601): Futures price is 8150, spot price is 8300, basis is 150, basis rate is 1.84%, historical quantile is 30.00% [1] - Palm Oil (P2601): Futures price is 9234, spot price is 9318, basis is -84, basis rate is -0.90%, historical quantile is 6.00% [1] - Cotton (CF601): Futures price is 13350, spot price is 14942, basis is 1592, basis rate is 11.93%, historical quantile is 7.50% [1] - Sugar (SR601): Futures price is 5479, spot price is 5890, basis is 411, basis rate is 7.00%, historical quantile is 73.90% [1] - Apple (AP601): Futures price is 8486, spot price is 8600, basis is 114, basis rate is 1.34%, historical quantile is 25.80% [1] - Red Dates (C601): Futures price is 10915, spot price is 9500, basis is -1415, basis rate is -14.86%, historical quantile is 33.60% [1] Energy and Chemicals - Paraxylene (PX511): Futures price is 6686.1, spot price is 6670, basis is -16.1, basis rate is -0.24%, historical quantile is 29.30% [1] - PTA (TA601): Futures price is 4585, spot price is 4652, basis is 67, basis rate is 1.44%, historical quantile is 28.60% [1] - Ethylene Glycol (EG2601): Futures price is 4295, spot price is 4224, basis is -71, basis rate is -1.68%, historical quantile is 83.80% [1] - Polyester Staple Fiber (PF511): Futures price is 6435, spot price is 6336, basis is -99, basis rate is -1.54%, historical quantile is 68.50% [1] - Styrene (EB251): Futures price is 6915, spot price is 6932, basis is -17, basis rate is -0.25%, historical quantile is 23.30% [1] - Methanol (MA601): Futures price is 2250, spot price is 2262, basis is -12, basis rate is -0.53%, historical quantile is 11.40% [1] - LLDPE (L2601): Futures price is 7175, spot price is 7181, basis is -6, basis rate is -0.08%, historical quantile is 20.00% [1] - PP (PP2601): Futures price is 6785, spot price is 6903, basis is -118, basis rate is -1.71%, historical quantile is 4.10% [1] - PVC (V2601): Futures price is 4896, spot price is 4730, basis is -166, basis rate is -3.40%, historical quantile is 35.30% [1] - Caustic Soda (SH601): Futures price is 2515, spot price is 2500, basis is -15, basis rate is -0.60%, historical quantile is 45.80% [1] - LPG (PG2511): Futures price is 4548, spot price is 4293, basis is 255, basis rate is 5.94%, historical quantile is 47.30% [1] - Asphalt (BU2511): Futures price is 3466, spot price is 3500, basis is 34, basis rate is 0.98%, historical quantile is 60.00% [1] - Butadiene Rubber (BR2511): Futures price is 11500, spot price is 11340, basis is 160, basis rate is 1.41%, historical quantile is 45.10% [1] - Glass (FG601): Futures price is 1128, spot price is 1228, basis is -100, basis rate is -8.14%, historical quantile is 33.54% [1] - Soda Ash (SA601): Futures price is 1188, spot price is 1278, basis is -90, basis rate is -7.04%, historical quantile is 18.00% [1] - Natural Rubber (RU2601): Futures price is 15470, spot price is 14700, basis is -770, basis rate is -5.08%, historical quantile is 14.00% [1] Financial Futures - IF2512.CFF: Futures price is 4604.6, spot price is 4620.1, basis is -15.5, basis rate is -0.34%, historical quantile is 28.30% [1] - IH2512.CHE: Futures price is 2973, spot price is 2976, basis is 3, basis rate is 0.10%, historical quantile is 73.80% [1] - IC2512.CFE: Futures price is 7232.2, spot price is 7350.6, basis is -118.4, basis rate is -1.61%, historical quantile is 1.10% [1] - IM2512.CFE: Futures price is 7337.4, spot price is 7497.8, basis is -160.4, basis rate is -2.14%, historical quantile is 7.00% [1] - 2 - year Treasury Bond (TS2512): Futures price is 102.33, spot price is 102.34, basis is -0.01, basis rate is -0.01%, historical quantile is 21.90% [1] - 5 - year Treasury Bond (TF2512): Futures price is 105.51, spot price is 99.22, basis is -0.01, basis rate is -0.01%, historical quantile is 25.40% [4] - 10 - year Treasury Bond (T2512): Futures price is 107.66, spot price is 105.87, basis is 0.21, basis rate is 0.19%, historical quantile is 42.40% [4] - 30 - year Treasury Bond (TL2512): Futures price is 113.79, spot price is 120.74, basis is 0.36, basis rate is 0.32%, historical quantile is 51.20% [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Copper - In the context of mining disturbances, the Shanghai copper price showed strong performance yesterday. Macro - economically, with potential further interest rate cuts in 2025, copper prices may benefit. Fundamentally, although copper demand may weaken marginally in the second half of the year, supply tightening in Q4 2025 due to mine shutdowns will support the price. In the short - term, prices may rise due to mining disturbances, and in the medium - to - long - term, supply - demand contradictions will provide bottom support. The price center may gradually rise, with support at 81,000 - 81,500 [1]. Aluminum and Alumina - Alumina: The market is in a "high - supply, high - inventory, weak - demand" situation. Supply pressure is high with high domestic operating capacity and open import windows. Demand is weak, and the spot price is expected to be under pressure, with the main contract oscillating between 2,850 - 3,150 yuan/ton. - Aluminum: The macro - environment is generally warm, but the dollar index brings uncertainty. Fundamentally, supply and demand are mixed. The price is expected to oscillate between 20,600 - 21,000 yuan/ton [3]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - The price of casting aluminum alloy futures oscillated with the aluminum price. The supply of scrap aluminum is still tight, and the cost is rigid. Demand shows a mild recovery, and with pre - holiday stocking, the price is expected to remain high and oscillate, with the main contract in the range of 20,200 - 20,600 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - The supply of zinc is in a loose situation, which may turn into an oversupply if inventory accumulates significantly. Demand is not outstanding. In the short - term, the price may rise due to macro - factors, but the upward elasticity is limited. It is expected to oscillate between 21,500 - 22,500 [9]. Tin - Tin ore supply is tight, and demand has not improved significantly. After Indonesia's crackdown on illegal tin mines, the price rose. If the supply from Myanmar recovers well, the price may weaken; otherwise, it will remain high and oscillate in the range of 265,000 - 285,000 [11]. Nickel - The nickel market is in an oscillating state. Macro - economically, there are expectations of further interest rate cuts. The price of nickel ore is firm, and the supply of nickel iron is mixed. The price is expected to oscillate between 120,000 - 125,000 [12]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market oscillated. The price of nickel ore is firm, and the supply of nickel iron is stable. Supply is expected to increase, but demand has not significantly improved. The price is expected to oscillate between 12,600 - 13,200 [14]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market oscillated strongly. Supply increment is marginal, and demand is robust. The whole industry chain is de - stocking. The price is expected to oscillate and be sorted out, with the main price center in the range of 70,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton [16]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 0.33% to 82,210 yuan/ton; SMM Guangdong 1 electrolytic copper price dropped by 0.36% to 82,190 yuan/ton; SMM wet - process copper price fell by 0.32% to 82,125 yuan/ton. The import profit and loss improved by 111.37 yuan/ton to - 564 yuan/ton [1]. Monthly Fundamental Data (August) - Electrolytic copper production was 117.15 million tons, a decrease of 0.24% month - on - month; imports were 26.43 million tons, a decrease of 10.99% month - on - month [1]. Weekly Fundamental Data - The index of imported copper concentrates increased by 0.44 dollars/ton to - 40.36 dollars/ton; domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory decreased by 11.95% to 63.79 million tons [1]. Inventory Data - Domestic social inventory increased by 2.63% to 14.83 million tons; bonded area inventory decreased by 4.95% to 7.30 million tons; SHFE inventory decreased by 6.65% to 9.88 million tons [1]. Aluminum and Alumina Aluminum Price and Spreads - SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 0.39% to 20,690 yuan/ton; the import profit and loss was - 1,637 yuan/ton, a decrease of 153 yuan/ton [3]. Monthly Fundamental Data (August) - Alumina production was 773.82 million tons, an increase of 1.15% month - on - month; electrolytic aluminum production was 373.26 million tons, an increase of 0.30% month - on - month; imports were 21.73 million tons, a decrease of 12.5% month - on - month; exports were 2.56 million tons, a decrease of 36.6% month - on - month [3]. Weekly Fundamental Data - Aluminum profile开工率 increased by 1.11% to 54.60%; aluminum cable开工率 remained unchanged at 65.20% [3]. Inventory Data - Chinese electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased by 3.29% to 61.70 million tons; LME inventory remained unchanged at 51.6 million tons [3]. Alumina - The price of alumina futures decreased by 0.41% to 2,904 yuan/ton. The supply is high, demand is weak, and the price is under pressure [3]. Casting Aluminum Alloy Price and Spreads - SMM ADC12 alloy prices in different regions remained unchanged. The scrap - to - refined price difference decreased in various regions [5]. Monthly Fundamental Data (August) - Recycled aluminum alloy ingot production was 61.50 million tons, a decrease of 1.60% month - on - month; primary aluminum alloy ingot production was 27.10 million tons, an increase of 1.88% month - on - month [5]. Weekly Fundamental Data - The overall recycled aluminum alloy开工率 decreased by 0.35% to 53.41%, with different trends among large, medium, and small enterprises [5]. Inventory Data - The weekly social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 0.72% to 5.57 million tons [5]. Zinc Price and Spreads - SMM 0 zinc ingot price decreased by 1.46% to 21,630 yuan/ton; the import profit and loss improved by 127.44 yuan/ton to - 3,429 yuan/ton [9]. Monthly Fundamental Data (August) - Refined zinc production was 62.62 million tons, an increase of 3.88% month - on - month; imports were 2.57 million tons, an increase of 43.30% month - on - month; exports were 0.03 million tons, a decrease of 23.40% month - on - month [9]. Weekly Fundamental Data - Galvanizing开工率 decreased by 2.23% to 55.82%; die - casting zinc alloy开工率 decreased by 4.05% to 49.73%; zinc oxide开工率 increased by 0.34% to 58.45% [9]. Inventory Data - Chinese zinc ingot seven - region social inventory decreased by 9.94% to 14.14 million tons; LME inventory decreased by 2.34% to 4.3 million tons [9]. Tin Price and Spreads - SMM 1 tin price decreased by 0.84% to 271,400 yuan/ton; the import profit and loss decreased by 5.40% to - 15,851.22 yuan/ton [11]. Monthly Fundamental Data (August) - Tin ore imports were 10,267 tons, a decrease of 0.11% month - on - month; SMM refined tin production was 15,390 tons, a decrease of 3.45% month - on - month [11]. Inventory Data - SHEF inventory decreased by 6.14% to 6,559 tons; social inventory decreased by 6.66% to 7,890 tons [11]. Nickel Price and Spreads - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 0.37% to 122,000 yuan/ton; the import profit and loss improved by 19.89% to - 1,547 yuan/ton [12]. Cost Data - The cost of integrated MHP to produce electrolytic nickel decreased by 1.15% to 117,171 yuan/ton; the cost of integrated high - grade nickel matte to produce electrolytic nickel decreased by 0.96% to 125,970 yuan/ton [12]. Monthly Fundamental Data - Chinese refined nickel production was 32,200 tons, an increase of 1.26% month - on - month; imports were 17,536 tons, a decrease of 8.46% month - on - month [12]. Inventory Data - SHFE inventory increased by 8.49% to 29,834 tons; social inventory increased by 1.04% to 41,484 tons; LME inventory decreased by 0.20% to 230,124 tons [12]. Stainless Steel Price and Spreads - 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) price decreased by 0.38% to 13,050 yuan/ton; the spot - to - futures price difference decreased by 96.53% to 460 yuan/ton [14]. Monthly Fundamental Data - Chinese 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production was 171.33 million tons, a decrease of 3.83% month - on - month; imports were 11.72 million tons, an increase of 60.48% month - on - month; exports were 44.79 million tons, an increase of 7.60% month - on - month [14]. Inventory Data - 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) increased by 1.13% to 47.74 million tons; SHFE contract orders decreased by 0.45% to 8.71 million tons [14]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spreads - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price decreased by 0.07% to 73,550 yuan/ton; the price of lithium spodumene concentrate CIF increased by 0.12% to 858 dollars/ton [16]. Monthly Fundamental Data (August) - Lithium carbonate production was 85,240 tons, an increase of 4.55% month - on - month; demand was 104,023 tons, an increase of 8.25% month - on - month; imports were 21,847 tons, an increase of 57.79% month - on - month [16]. Inventory Data - Lithium carbonate total inventory decreased by 3.75% to 94,177 tons; downstream inventory increased by 16.46% to 53,440 tons; smelter inventory decreased by 21.60% to 40,737 tons [16].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Grains - Argentina restarted export taxes, but China has purchased multiple shipments of Argentine soybeans. US soybeans currently lack substantial positive factors, with high yields and limited export performance due to the lack of Chinese demand, expected to remain in a low - range fluctuation. In China, the supply of soybean meal is abundant, soybean inventories are at a high level, and the inventory of soybean meal in oil mills is also recovering. Under supply pressure, the basis is difficult to improve. The increase in Argentine soybean purchases alleviates the gap at the end of the year and in the first quarter of next year to some extent, and the 1 - 5 spread of soybean meal may continue to weaken [2]. Livestock (Pigs) - The market supply rhythm is continuously recovering. Near the Double Festival, the demand for slaughtering large - weight pigs has increased, resulting in both supply and demand increasing. Spot quotes are chaotic, and the decline in some regions has widened. In the medium term, demand is slowly recovering, but the supply is clearly in a recovery pattern, and demand is insufficient to absorb the supply. The weight of retail pigs is still high. Pay attention to the weight adjustment of retail pigs after the National Day. The futures market is cautious about speculating on expectations, market confidence is weak, and long - position funds in the far - month contracts are withdrawing. The market is expected to remain volatile, fluctuating slightly following the spot market [4]. Oils - For palm oil, with the release of end - of - month fundamental data and concerns about inventory growth at the end of the year, crude palm oil futures are under pressure to fall below 4400 ringgit and then decline in a volatile manner. It is expected that after breaking through the annual line support of 4350 ringgit, the price may gradually seek support at 4200 ringgit. In China, due to concerns about the weakening of Malaysian palm oil, there is a risk that domestic palm oil futures may follow the downward trend of Malaysian palm oil, especially the risk of a compensatory decline after the National Day holiday. For soybean oil, the concentrated harvest of US soybeans and weak exports lead to a downward space for CBOT soybeans after fluctuations, dragging down the CBOT soybean oil price at the cost end. In China, after the pre - holiday stocking is completed, the market enters a holiday mode with light trading. During the holiday, factory production will accumulate inventory, and although downstream replenishment after the holiday may relieve the pressure, the high inventory may still drag down the spot basis price [6]. Corn - In the Northeast region, the supply of new - season corn is increasing, and the opening price is slightly higher than last year, with farmers having high enthusiasm for selling. The price has a stable local rebound, but there is still a downward expectation as the new - season harvest continues. On the demand side, deep - processing and feed enterprises are mainly consuming their own inventories, with no obvious highlights, but there is a seasonal replenishment demand. In the short term, as the market supply gradually increases, the futures price will remain weakly volatile at a low level. Pay attention to the new - grain purchase rhythm and farmers' selling mentality [7]. Sugar - In the short term, the raw sugar price is mainly dragged down by the rapid production in Brazil and the demand before the expiration of the October contract. The high sugar production and inventory during the peak crushing season in Brazil have led to an oversupply in the recent trade flow. Pay attention to the pressure relief after the decline in cane crushing volume, the reduction in the sugar - making ratio, and the gradual shutdown of sugar mills from September to October. Overall, the positive factors for raw sugar are limited, and it is expected to maintain a weak bottom - oscillating pattern, with a reference range of 15 - 17 cents per pound. The new sugar - making season has started in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang, and new sugar is expected to be on the market this week, putting pressure on the spot market. The domestic market trading sentiment is cautious, and after the Double Festival stocking is completed, the overall trading atmosphere is relatively light. It is expected to maintain a weak trend [11]. Cotton - On the supply side, the willingness to rush to purchase seed cotton is weak, and new cotton can be hedged at a reasonable price. In the medium term, cotton prices face significant hedging pressure. On the demand side, the downstream textile industry has little confidence in the peak season, and demand is weaker than the same period in previous years, with limited support. Therefore, domestic cotton prices may be under pressure in the medium term [12]. Eggs - In recent days, the risk - aversion sentiment of traders has increased, and the procurement volume in the origin has decreased. The weakening demand may drag down egg prices. The sufficient supply of eggs will also have a negative impact on the market. After a slight decline in egg prices, traders may make small - batch replenishments, which may support egg prices. It is expected that egg prices will remain bottom - oscillating in the short term, but there is still pressure in the medium term [16]. Summary by Related Catalogs Grains - **Soybean Meal**: The current price of Jiangsu soybean meal is 2940 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous value; the futures price of M2601 is 2933 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan or 0.14% from the previous value; the basis of M2601 is 7 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan or 133.33% from the previous value. The import crushing profit of Argentine soybeans for the November shipment is 255 yuan/ton, unchanged, while that of Brazilian soybeans is - 14 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan or 255.6% from the previous value. The warehouse receipt is 39055, unchanged [2]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The current price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal is 2500 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or 0.40% from the previous value; the futures price of RM2601 is 2416 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan or 0.46% from the previous value; the basis of RM2601 is 84 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan or 20.00% from the previous value. The import crushing profit of Canadian rapeseed for the November shipment is 0 yuan/ton, unchanged. The warehouse receipt is 9245, unchanged [2]. - **Soybeans**: The current price of Harbin soybeans is 3880 yuan/ton, unchanged; the futures price of the main soybean - 1 contract is 3938 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan or 0.08% from the previous value; the basis of the main soybean - 1 contract is - 58 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan or - 5.45% from the previous value. The current price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu is 3940 yuan/ton, unchanged; the futures price of the main soybean - 2 contract is 3600 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan or - 0.25% from the previous value; the basis of the main soybean - 2 contract is 340 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan or 2.72% from the previous value. The warehouse receipt is 7290, down 288 or - 3.80% from the previous value [2]. - **Spreads**: The soybean - meal inter - period spread (01 - 05) is 190 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan or 2.15% from the previous value; the rapeseed - meal inter - period spread (01 - 05) is 93 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan or 19.23% from the previous value; the oil - to - meal ratio of the spot is 2.86, down 0.024 or - 0.83% from the previous value; the oil - to - meal ratio of the main contract is 2.78, unchanged; the soybean - rapeseed meal spread of the spot is 440 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan or 2.33% from the previous value; the soybean - rapeseed meal spread of 2601 is 517 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan or - 2.82% from the previous value [2]. Livestock (Pigs) - **Futures Indicators**: The basis of the main contract is 255 yuan/ton, up 280 yuan or 1120.00% from the previous value; the price of live - hog 2511 is 12295 yuan/ton, down 280 yuan or - 2.23% from the previous value; the price of live - hog 2601 is 12785 yuan/ton, down 315 yuan or - 2.40% from the previous value; the 11 - 1 spread is - 490 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan or 6.67% from the previous value; the position of the main contract is 75453, down 9566 or - 11.25% from the previous value; the warehouse receipt is 0, down 298 from the previous value [4]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot price in Henan is 12550 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Shandong, it is 12850 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; in Sichuan, it is 12050 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; in Liaoning, it is 12400 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan; in Guangdong, it is 12960 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; in Hunan, it is 12110 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; in Hebei, it is 12600 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [4]. - **Spot Indicators**: The daily slaughter volume of sample points is 169930, up 4751 or 2.88% from the previous value; the weekly white - strip pig price is 0 yuan/kg, down 19.8 yuan or - 100.00% from the previous value; the weekly piglet price is 26 yuan/kg, unchanged; the weekly sow price is 32.5 yuan/kg, unchanged; the weekly slaughter weight is 128.55 kg, up 0.1 kg or 0.08% from the previous value; the weekly self - breeding profit is - 74 yuan/head, down 49.7 yuan or - 203.23% from the previous value; the weekly purchased - piglet breeding profit is - 237 yuan/head, down 37.3 yuan or - 18.69% from the previous value; the monthly inventory of reproductive sows is 40380000 heads, down 40000 or - 0.10% from the previous value [4]. Oils - **Soybean Oil**: The current price of Jiangsu first - grade soybean oil is 8400 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan or - 0.83% from the previous value; the futures price of Y2601 is 8150 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan or - 0.15% from the previous value; the basis of Y2601 is 250 yuan/ton, down 58 yuan or - 18.83% from the previous value. The warehouse receipt is 25534, unchanged [6]. - **Palm Oil**: The current price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 9110 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan or - 1.30% from the previous value; the futures price of P2601 is 9234 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan or - 0.02% from the previous value; the basis of P2601 is - 124 yuan/ton, down 118 yuan or - 1966.67% from the previous value. The import cost of palm oil at Guangzhou Port in January is 9657.8 yuan/ton, up 2.5 yuan or 0.03% from the previous value; the import profit is - 424 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan or - 1.08% from the previous value. The warehouse receipt is 410, unchanged [6]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The current price of Jiangsu third - grade rapeseed oil is 10200 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan or - 0.39% from the previous value; the futures price of OI601 is 10093 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan or - 0.68% from the previous value; the basis of OI601 is 107 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan or 37.18% from the previous value. The warehouse receipt is 8057, unchanged [6]. - **Spreads**: The soybean - oil inter - period spread (01 - 05) is 238 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan or 0.85% from the previous value; the palm - oil inter - period spread (01 - 05) is 174 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or - 5.43% from the previous value; the rapeseed - oil inter - period spread (01 - 05) is 503 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan or - 3.27% from the previous value; the spot soybean - palm oil spread is - 710 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan or 6.58% from the previous value; the 2601 soybean - palm oil spread is - 1148 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan or - 1.95% from the previous value; the spot rapeseed - soybean oil spread is 1800 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan or 1.69% from the previous value; the 2601 rapeseed - soybean oil spread is 1943 yuan/ton, down 57 yuan or - 2.85% from the previous value [6]. Corn - **Corn**: The price of corn 2511 is 2159 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan or - 0.87% from the previous value; the Pingcang price at Jinzhou Port is 2280 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis is 121 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan or 18.63% from the previous value; the 11 - 3 spread is 10 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan or - 62.96% from the previous value; the bulk - grain price at Shekou is 2440 yuan/ton, unchanged; the north - south trade profit is 84 yuan/ton, unchanged; the CIF price is 1947 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan or - 0.03% from the previous value; the import profit is 493 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan or 0.13% from the previous value; the number of remaining vehicles at Shandong deep - processing enterprises in the morning is 627, down 99 or - 13.64% from the previous value; the position is 1600487, down 36762 or - 2.25% from the previous value; the warehouse receipt is 21549, down 265 or - 1.21% from the previous value [7]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of corn starch 2511 is 2483 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan or 0.12% from the previous value; the spot price in Changchun is 2560 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price in Weifang is 2800 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis is 17 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan or - 3.75% from the previous value; the 11 - 3 spread is 21 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan or 31.25% from the previous value; the starch - corn futures spread is 324 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan or 7.28% from the previous value; the starch profit in Shandong is - 32 yuan/ton, unchanged; the position is 274397, up 1926 or 0.71% from the previous value; the warehouse receipt is 8189, unchanged [7]. Sugar - **Futures Market**: The price of sugar 2601 is 5479 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan or 0.02% from the previous value; the price of sugar 2605 is 5437 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan or - 0.09% from the previous value; the price of ICE raw - sugar main contract is 16.40 cents per pound, up 0.05 cents or 0.31% from the previous value; the 1 - 5 spread is 42 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan or 16.67% from the previous value; the position of the main contract is 417045, down 10429 or - 2.44% from the previous value; the warehouse receipt is 8981, down 483 or - 5.10% from the previous value; the effective forecast is 0, unchanged [11]. -

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the reports regarding industry investment ratings. Core Views 1. Oils and Fats - Palm oil: Malaysian crude palm oil futures may face pressure to fall back and seek support at 4300 ringgit, with a chance of rebounding later. Domestic palm oil futures may also decline, with an expected correction to the 8800 - 9000 yuan range. - Soybean oil: The fundamentals of US soybean oil have little change. The seasonal supply pressure from the US soybean harvest drags down the market. In China, post - holiday demand will weaken, and supply may increase, resulting in a short - term oversupply situation [1]. 2. Pork - In the short - term, the supply and demand of the pork market both increase, with chaotic spot quotes and larger declines in some areas. In the medium - term, demand recovers slowly, and supply is clearly recovering, with weak demand absorption. The market is expected to fluctuate and adjust, following the spot price with small fluctuations [3]. 3. Corn - In the short - term, the supply of new corn in the market is increasing. The price in the northeast is weak, and the price in the north China is under pressure. The demand side has a seasonal restocking demand. The market is expected to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the new grain purchase rhythm and farmers' selling mentality [5]. 4. Meal - US soybeans are expected to fluctuate in a low - level range. The basis of domestic meal is supported before the festival. The purchase of Argentine soybeans eases the supply gap to some extent. The near - month increase of soybean meal is weak, and the 1 - 5 spread may continue to weaken in the short - term [8]. 5. Sugar - In the short - term, the international raw sugar price is dragged down by Brazilian production and demand. It is expected to maintain a weak bottom - oscillating pattern. New sugar in China will be on the market soon, putting pressure on the spot market. The domestic market is expected to be weak [10]. 6. Cotton - The supply side has a large hedging pressure after the new cotton is purchased. The demand side has low confidence in the peak season, and the demand is less than in previous years. The domestic cotton price may be under pressure in the short - to - medium term [11]. 7. Eggs - The inventory of laying hens remains high, and the egg supply is sufficient. With the approaching of the double festivals, the demand for eggs may increase. Egg prices are expected to oscillate in a bottom - level range [15]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Oils and Fats - **Price Changes**: - **Soybean oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu on September 26 was 8470 yuan, up 30 yuan or 0.36% from September 25. The futures price of Y2601 was 8162 yuan, down 30 yuan or - 0.37%. The basis of Y2601 was 308 yuan, up 60 yuan or 24.19% [1]. - **Palm oil**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong on September 26 was 9230 yuan, up 60 yuan or 0.65%. The futures price of P2601 was 9236 yuan, up 14 yuan or 0.15%. The basis of P2601 was - 6 yuan, up 46 yuan or 88.46% [1]. - **Rapeseed oil**: The spot price of third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu on September 26 was 10240 yuan, up 200 yuan or 1.99%. The futures price of OI601 was 10162 yuan, up 20 yuan or 0.20%. The basis of OI601 was 78 yuan, up 180 yuan or 176.47% [1]. - **Spread Changes**: - **Inter - month spreads**: The 01 - 05 spread of soybean oil on September 28 was 236 yuan, down 26 yuan or - 9.92% from September 26; that of palm oil was 184 yuan, down 8 yuan or - 4.17%; that of rapeseed oil was 520 yuan, up 36 yuan or 7.44% [1]. - **Cross - variety spreads**: The spot soybean - palm oil spread was - 760 yuan, down 30 yuan or - 4.11%; the 2601 spread was - 1126 yuan, down 26 yuan or - 2.36%. The spot rapeseed - soybean oil spread was 1770 yuan, unchanged; the 2601 spread was 2000 yuan, up 50 yuan or 2.56% [1]. 2. Pork - **Futures Market**: The price of the main contract basis was - 45 yuan, up 90 yuan or 66.67%. The price of the live hog 2511 contract was 12575 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan or - 0.87%; the price of the 2601 contract was 13100 yuan/ton, down 210 yuan or - 1.58% [3]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in different regions showed different trends. For example, the price in Henan was 12530 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; that in Shandong was 12840 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan [3]. - **Related Indicators**: The daily slaughter volume of sample slaughterhouses was 143630, down 11434 or - 7.37%. The weekly white - strip price was 0 yuan, down 19.81 yuan or - 100.00% [3]. 3. Corn - **Corn**: The price of the corn 2511 contract was 2178 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan or 0.60%. The Pingcang price in Jinzhou Port was 2280 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan or - 1.30%. The basis was 102 yuan, down 43 yuan or - 29.66% [5]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of the corn starch 2511 contract was 2480 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan or 0.24%. The basis was 80 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan or - 6.98% [5]. 4. Meal - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2940 yuan, unchanged. The futures price of M2601 was 2937 yuan, unchanged. The basis was 3 yuan, unchanged [8]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2510 yuan, unchanged. The futures price of RM2601 was 2405 yuan, unchanged. The basis was 105 yuan, unchanged [8]. 5. Sugar - **Futures Market**: The price of the sugar 2601 contract was 5478 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan or - 0.13%. The price of the 2605 contract was 5442 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan or - 0.22% [10]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in Nanning and Kunming were unchanged. The Nanning basis was 338 yuan, up 12 yuan or 3.68%; the Kunming basis was 368 yuan, up 12 yuan or 3.37% [10]. 6. Cotton - **Futures Market**: The price of the cotton 2605 contract was 13405 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan or - 0.96%. The price of the 2601 contract was 13405 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan or - 0.92% [11]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 14955 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan or - 0.27%. The 3128B - 01 contract spread was 1550 yuan, up 90 yuan or 6.16% [11]. 7. Eggs - **Futures Market**: The price of the egg 11 contract was 3036 yuan/500KG, down 40 yuan or - 1.30%. The price of the 10 contract was 2940 yuan/500KG, down 41 yuan or - 1.38% [14]. - **Spot Market**: The egg - producing area price was 3.47 yuan/jin, down 0.14 yuan or - 3.76%. The basis was 492 yuan/500KG, down 37 yuan or - 6.98% [14].

Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the reports. Core Views Copper - Short - term copper prices may rise due to mine - end disturbances, and in the medium - long term, the supply - demand contradiction provides a bottom support. The price center may gradually rise. Pay attention to whether the macro - market style switches to recovery trading and the marginal changes in the demand side. The main contract is supported at 81000 - 81500 [1]. Aluminum - The short - term alumina spot price will remain under pressure, with the main contract oscillating between 2850 - 3150 yuan/ton. The short - term aluminum price will oscillate at a high level after a decline, with the main contract in the range of 20600 - 21000 yuan/ton [4]. Aluminum Alloy - The short - term ADC12 price will maintain a high - level oscillation, with the main contract running in the range of 20200 - 20600 yuan/ton [6]. Zinc - The supply - relaxation logic has spread from the zinc - mine end to the zinc - ingot end. The zinc price will continue to be under pressure, but the impact of interest - rate cuts on the macro - trading logic needs to be noted [10]. Tin - If the supply from Myanmar recovers smoothly, the tin price is expected to weaken; if the supply recovery is poor, the tin price will continue to oscillate at a high level, in the range of 265000 - 285000 [13]. Nickel - The short - term nickel price will maintain an interval oscillation, with the main contract in the range of 120000 - 125000 [15]. Stainless Steel - The short - term stainless - steel price will oscillate and adjust, with the main contract running in the range of 12600 - 13200 [17]. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term lithium - carbonate price will oscillate and sort out, with the main - contract price center in the range of 70000 - 75000 yuan/ton [19]. Summary by Directory Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper was at 82485 yuan/ton, down 0.02% from the previous value. SMM Guangdong 1 electrolytic copper was at 82490 yuan/ton, up 0.13%. SMM wet - process copper was at 82385 yuan/ton, down 0.04% [1]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2510 - 2511 was 0 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous value [1]. Fundamental Data - In August, the electrolytic copper production was 117.15 million tons, down 0.24% month - on - month; the import volume was 26.43 million tons, down 10.99% [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum was at 20770 yuan/ton, up 0.44%. The average price of alumina in Shandong was 2905 yuan/ton, down 0.17% [4]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2510 - 2511 was 10 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous value [4]. Fundamental Data - In August, the alumina production was 773.82 million tons, up 1.15% month - on - month; the electrolytic aluminum production was 373.26 million tons, up 0.30% [4]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 was at 20900 yuan/ton, up 0.24%. The refined - scrap price difference of Foshan crushed primary aluminum was 1460 yuan/ton, down 4.58% [6]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2511 - 2512 was - 55 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton from the previous value [6]. Fundamental Data - In August, the production of recycled aluminum - alloy ingots was 61.50 million tons, down 1.60% month - on - month; the production of primary aluminum - alloy ingots was 27.10 million tons, up 1.88% [6]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot was at 21950 yuan/ton, up 0.37%. The import profit and loss was - 3556 yuan/ton, up 7.35 yuan/ton from the previous value [10]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2510 - 2511 was - 30 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from the previous value [10]. Fundamental Data - In August, the refined zinc production was 62.62 million tons, up 3.88% month - on - month; the import volume was 2.57 million tons, up 43.30% [10]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin was at 273700 yuan/ton, up 0.85%. The LME 0 - 3 premium was - 105 dollars/ton, down 7.14% [13]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2510 - 2511 was - 470 yuan/ton, down 20.51% from the previous value [13]. Fundamental Data - In July, the tin - ore import was 10278 tons, down 13.71% from the previous value; the SMM refined - tin production was 15940 tons, up 15.42% [13]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel was at 122450 yuan/ton, down 1.29%. The 8 - 12% high - nickel pig - iron price was 855 yuan/ton, unchanged [15]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2511 - 2512 was - 220 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous value [15]. Supply - Demand and Inventory - The domestic refined - nickel production was 32200 tons, up 1.26% month - on - month; the import volume was 17536 tons, down 8.46% [15]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) was at 13100 yuan/ton, down 0.38%. The Philippine laterite nickel ore 1.5% (CIF) average price was 51 dollars/wet ton, unchanged [17]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2511 - 2512 was - 40 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous value [17]. Fundamental Data - The production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China was 171.33 million tons, down 3.83% month - on - month; the import volume was 11.72 million tons, up 60.48% [17]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price was 73600 yuan/ton, down 0.20%. The lithium - spodumene concentrate CIF average price was 857 dollars/ton, up 0.12% [19]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2510 - 2511 was - 200 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous value [19]. Fundamental Data - In August, the lithium - carbonate production was 85240 tons, up 4.55% month - on - month; the demand was 104023 tons, up 8.25% [19].

1. Chlor - Alkali Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - For caustic soda, in Q4, the downside space is limited. There may be concentrated stocking behavior in Q4 due to alumina's planned production in Q1 next year. Short - term demand has support, but future alumina purchase prices may be lowered [2]. - For PVC, in Q4, the downside space is limited during the peak season. The supply is in an excess pattern, and the demand in Q3 did not show well. Exports have alleviated some excess pressure, and attention should be paid to cost support and downstream demand [2]. Summary by Catalog - **Prices**: On September 26, compared with September 25, the prices of some caustic soda and PVC products changed. For example, the price of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda (converted to 100%) remained unchanged at 2500 yuan/ton, while the price of East China calcium carbide - based PVC decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 4740 yuan/ton [2]. - **Supply**: The overall start - up rate of the PVC industry increased by 0.7 percentage points to 76.1% on September 26 compared with September 19. The start - up rate data of the caustic soda industry was not available [2]. - **Demand**: The start - up rates of some downstream industries of caustic soda and PVC changed slightly. For example, the start - up rate of the alumina industry remained unchanged at 83.7%, and the start - up rate of the Longzhong sample pipe industry increased by 1.3 percentage points to 40.4% [2]. - **Inventory**: As of September 25, compared with September 18, the inventory of liquid caustic soda in East China factories and Shandong increased, while the total social inventory of PVC remained unchanged at 53.5 million tons [2]. 2. Polyester Industry Chain Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - For PX, in Q4, the supply - demand is expected to be weak, and the price will be under pressure. Strategies include shorting on rebounds and reverse - arbitraging on high spreads [6]. - For PTA, in Q4, the supply - demand is expected to be weak, and it will follow the cost side to fluctuate weakly. Strategies include shorting on rebounds and reverse - arbitraging on the TA1 - 5 spread [6]. - For ethylene glycol, in Q4, it is expected to enter the inventory accumulation stage, and the price is under pressure. Strategies include shorting EG01 and reverse - arbitraging on the EG1 - 5 spread [6]. - For short - fiber, in the short - term, the price may be supported, but if the terminal demand in October cannot follow up, the supply - demand will turn to an expected pattern, and the processing fee is expected to be compressed [6]. - For bottle - chips, in Q4, it is likely to enter the seasonal inventory accumulation stage, and the processing fee is under pressure. Strategies include following the PTA for single - side trading and shorting the processing fee on high spreads [6]. Summary by Catalog - **Prices**: On September 26, compared with September 25, the prices of various products in the polyester industry chain changed. For example, the price of POY150/48 increased by 75 yuan/ton to 6605 yuan/ton, and the price of PTA East China spot increased by 5 yuan/ton to 4590 yuan/ton [6]. - **Supply - demand and Inventory**: In Q4, the supply of PX and domestic ethylene glycol is expected to be high, while the demand of downstream products such as PTA and bottle - chips is in the off - season. The inventory of MEG ports and domestic urea is also in a state of change [6]. - **Start - up Rate**: The start - up rates of various industries in the polyester industry chain changed weekly. For example, the start - up rate of Asian PX decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 78.0%, and the start - up rate of domestic PTA remained unchanged at 76.8% [6]. 3. Polyolefin Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - For LLDPE and PP, currently, the inventory of PE and PP has decreased. However, after the holiday, there is a large inventory pressure, and with new capacity coming on - stream, the inventory accumulation pressure of the 01 contract is large, which limits the upside space [9]. Summary by Catalog - **Prices**: On September 26, compared with September 25, the prices of L2601, PP2601 and other contracts decreased slightly. For example, the closing price of L2601 decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 7159 yuan/ton [9]. - **Inventory**: As of the relevant update time, the enterprise inventory and social inventory of PE and PP decreased. For example, the PE enterprise inventory decreased by 3.2 million tons to 45.8 million tons [9]. - **Start - up Rate**: The start - up rates of PE and PP devices increased. For example, the start - up rate of PE devices increased by 1.48 percentage points to 81.8%, and the start - up rate of PP devices increased by 0.63 percentage points to 75.5% [9]. 4. Methanol Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, methanol will continue to fluctuate. The supply side has a balance between the resumption of some domestic devices and the expected reduction of overseas supply. The demand side is weak, and attention should be paid to overseas device operation and domestic demand realization [39]. Summary by Catalog - **Prices**: On September 26, compared with September 25, the closing price of MA2601 increased slightly, and the basis of Taicang changed. For example, the closing price of MA2601 increased by 1 yuan to 2356 yuan/ton [39]. - **Inventory**: As of the Wednesday update, the enterprise inventory, port inventory and social inventory of methanol decreased. For example, the methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 2.05 million tons to 31.994 million tons [39]. - **Start - up Rate**: On September 26, compared with the previous value, the start - up rate of domestic upstream enterprises increased, while the start - up rate of overseas enterprises decreased. For example, the start - up rate of domestic upstream enterprises increased by 1.61 percentage points to 74.27% [39]. 5. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - For pure benzene, the supply is expected to be high due to the resumption of some devices and new capacity coming on - stream. The demand support is limited, and the price driving force is weak. BZ2603 should follow the benzene - styrene and oil prices to fluctuate [42]. - For styrene, the supply is expected to increase, and the demand support may be limited. The price is still under pressure. EB11 should be shorted on rebounds, and the EB11 - BZ11 spread can be widened at low levels, but the driving force is limited [42]. Summary by Catalog - **Prices**: On September 26, compared with September 25, the prices of pure benzene and styrene - related products changed. For example, the price of pure benzene East China spot decreased by 35 yuan/ton to 5865 yuan/ton, and the price of styrene East China spot decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 6910 yuan/ton [42]. - **Inventory**: As of the weekly update, the inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports decreased, while the inventory of styrene in Jiangsu ports increased. For example, the pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 2.7 million tons to 10.7 million tons [42]. - **Start - up Rate**: The start - up rates of various industries in the pure benzene and styrene industry chain changed. For example, the start - up rate of domestic pure benzene increased by 0.9 percentage points to 79.3%, and the start - up rate of styrene decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 73.2% [42]. 6. Urea Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - The urea futures price fluctuates downward. The supply - demand is in a loose pattern, with high domestic production, weak demand, and a weak international price. The export policy adjustment and new Indian tender have not effectively boosted market confidence [50]. Summary by Catalog - **Prices**: On September 26, compared with September 25, the prices of urea futures contracts decreased slightly. For example, the closing price of the 01 contract decreased by 5 yuan/ton to 1669 yuan/ton [46]. - **Supply - demand and Inventory**: The daily and weekly production of urea increased, and the inventory in factories increased, while the port inventory decreased. For example, the domestic daily urea production decreased by 0.1 million tons to 19.94 million tons, and the domestic factory inventory increased by 5.29 million tons to 121.82 million tons [50]. 7. Crude Oil Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - In Q4, oil prices are likely to maintain a wide - range oscillating pattern. In early October, they may be strong due to geopolitical risks and low inventory. In the middle, they may face pressure due to increased production and inventory recovery. In the later period, they may trend weakly due to loose supply and weakened geopolitical risks. It is recommended to use a band - trading strategy for single - side trading, a positive - arbitrage strategy for arbitrage, and wait for opportunities to widen the volatility in the options market [52]. Summary by Catalog - **Prices**: On September 29, compared with September 26, the prices of Brent, WTI, SC and other crude oil products decreased. For example, the price of Brent decreased by 0.56 US dollars/barrel to 69.57 US dollars/barrel [52]. - **Spreads**: The spreads of Brent M1 - M3, WTI M1 - M3, SC M1 - M3 and other indicators changed. For example, the WTI M1 - M3 spread decreased by 2.82 US dollars/barrel to 0.92 US dollars/barrel [52].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Copper - The Fed's expected 2 rate cuts in 2025 may benefit copper prices. In the second half of the year, copper demand may weaken marginally, but supply concerns due to mine disruptions support the price. Short - term prices may rise due to mine - end disturbances, and the medium - to - long - term supply - demand contradiction provides a bottom support. The price center may gradually rise, with the main contract focusing on the 81000 - 81500 support [1]. Aluminum - Alumina is in a "high supply, high inventory, weak demand" situation. The short - term price is expected to be under pressure, with the main contract oscillating between 2850 - 3150 yuan/ton. Aluminum prices are expected to be high - level volatile after a pullback, with the main contract in the 20600 - 21000 yuan/ton range [4]. Aluminum Alloy - The price of ADC12 is expected to remain high - level volatile, with the main contract in the 20200 - 20600 yuan/ton range. Cost and pre - holiday stocking support the price, while weak demand recovery and inventory accumulation are constraints [6]. Zinc - The supply - loosening logic has spread from zinc mines to zinc ingots. Zinc prices will continue to be under pressure. The short - term price may rise due to macro factors, but the supply - side situation limits the upward space. The main contract is expected to be in the 21200 - 22200 range [10]. Tin - If the supply from Myanmar recovers smoothly, tin prices are expected to weaken; otherwise, they may continue the high - level volatile trend, with the operating range at 265000 - 285000 [13]. Nickel - The nickel price is expected to be range - bound, with the main contract in the 120000 - 125000 range. Cost provides support, but medium - term supply is expected to be loose [15]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel price is expected to be in short - term shock adjustment, with the main contract in the 12600 - 13200 range. Cost provides support, but the peak - season demand is not met as expected [17]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium - carbonate price is expected to be shock - sorted in the short term, with the main price center in the 70000 - 75000 range. Supply is in a tight balance, and demand in the peak season provides support [19]. Summary by Directory Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper was at 82485 yuan/ton, down 0.02% from the previous day; SMM Guangdong 1 electrolytic copper was at 82490 yuan/ton, up 0.13% [1]. Fundamental Data - In August, electrolytic copper production was 117.15 million tons, down 0.24% month - on - month; imports were 26.43 million tons, down 10.99% month - on - month [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum was at 20770 yuan/ton, up 0.44% from the previous day; the import profit and loss was - 1484 yuan/ton, up 17.1 yuan/ton [4]. Fundamental Data - In August, alumina production was 773.82 million tons, up 1.15% month - on - month; electrolytic aluminum production was 373.26 million tons, up 0.30% month - on - month [4]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM ADC12 was at 20900 yuan/ton, up 0.24% from the previous day; the month - to - month spread of 2511 - 2512 was - 55 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton [6]. Fundamental Data - In August, regenerated aluminum alloy ingot production was 61.50 million tons, down 1.60% month - on - month; primary aluminum alloy ingot production was 27.10 million tons, up 1.88% month - on - month [6]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot was at 21950 yuan/ton, up 0.37% from the previous day; the import profit and loss was - 3556 yuan/ton, up 7.35 yuan/ton [10]. Fundamental Data - In August, refined zinc production was 62.62 million tons, up 3.88% month - on - month; imports were 2.57 million tons, up 43.30% month - on - month [10]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin was at 273700 yuan/ton, up 0.85% from the previous day; the LME 0 - 3 spread was - 105 dollars/ton, down 7 dollars/ton [13]. Fundamental Data - In July, tin ore imports were 10278 tons, down 13.71% month - on - month; SMM refined tin production was 15940 tons, up 15.42% month - on - month [13]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel was at 122450 yuan/ton, down 1.29% from the previous day; the LME 0 - 3 spread was - 187 dollars/ton, down 13 dollars/ton [15]. Fundamental Data - China's refined nickel production in August was 32200 tons, up 1.26% month - on - month; imports were 17536 tons, down 8.46% month - on - month [15]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) was at 13100 yuan/ton, down 0.38% from the previous day; the period - spot spread was 13270 yuan/ton, up 12790 yuan/ton [17]. Fundamental Data - China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel production (43 companies) in August was 171.33 million tons, down 3.83% month - on - month; imports were 11.72 million tons, up 60.48% month - on - month [17]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate was at 73600 yuan/ton, down 0.20% from the previous day; the 2510 - 2511 spread was - 200 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton [19]. Fundamental Data - In August, lithium carbonate production was 85240 tons, up 4.55% month - on - month; demand was 104023 tons, up 8.25% month - on - month [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Oils and Fats - Palm oil: Malaysian palm oil futures may fall to seek support at 4,300 ringgit, and domestic palm oil futures may follow suit and fall to the range of 8,800 - 9,000 yuan. Overall, it maintains a view of near - term weakness and long - term strength [1]. - Soybean oil: The fundamentals of US soybean oil have not changed significantly. There is a seasonal supply pressure in the US, and domestic demand is weak after the holiday. Short - term supply exceeds demand [1]. Pork - The market supply rhythm is recovering, and the demand for large - weight pigs is increasing. The spot price is chaotic with some areas seeing larger declines. In the medium term, demand recovers slowly while supply recovers clearly, and the market may fluctuate slightly following the spot [3]. Corn - New - season corn in the Northeast is increasing in volume, and prices are weak. In North China, prices are under pressure. Demand is mainly for rigid needs, and there is a seasonal restocking demand. The market is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term [5]. Meal - US soybeans lack substantial positive factors. China's domestic soybean supply is abundant, and the basis is supported before the holiday. The 1 - 5 spread of soybean meal may continue to weaken in the short term [8]. Sugar - In the short term, raw sugar prices are dragged down by Brazilian production and demand. It is expected to maintain a weak bottom - oscillating pattern. The new domestic sugar season has started, and the domestic market is expected to be weak [10]. Cotton - The supply side has hedging pressure after new cotton acquisition, and the demand side has low confidence in the peak season. Domestic cotton prices may be under pressure in the short and medium term [11]. Eggs - The inventory of laying hens is high, and egg supply is sufficient. Demand may increase during the holidays, and egg prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom [15]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Prices**: On September 26, the spot price of Jiangsu first - grade soybean oil was 8,470 yuan, up 0.36% from the previous day; the futures price of Y2601 was 8,162 yuan, down 0.37%. The basis of Y2601 increased by 24.19%. For palm oil, the spot price of Guangdong 24 - degree palm oil was 9,230 yuan, up 0.65%, and the futures price of P2601 was 9,236 yuan, up 0.15%. The basis of P2601 increased by 88.46%. For rapeseed oil, the spot price of Jiangsu third - grade rapeseed oil was 10,240 yuan, up 1.99%, and the futures price of OI601 was 10,162 yuan, up 0.20%. The basis of OI601 increased by 176.47% [1]. - **Spreads**: From September 26 to 28, the soybean oil 01 - 05 spread decreased by 9.92%, the palm oil 01 - 05 spread decreased by 4.17%, and the rapeseed oil 01 - 05 spread increased by 7.44%. The spot soybean - palm oil spread decreased by 4.11%, and the 2601 soybean - palm oil spread decreased by 2.36%. The spot rapeseed - soybean oil spread remained unchanged, and the 2601 rapeseed - soybean oil spread increased by 2.56% [1]. Pork - **Prices**: On September 29, the price of the live - hog 2511 contract was 12,575 yuan/ton, down 0.87% from the previous day; the price of the 2601 contract was 13,100 yuan/ton, down 1.58%. The basis of the main contract increased by 66.67% [3]. - **Indicators**: The daily slaughter volume of sample slaughterhouses decreased by 7.37%, the weekly white - strip price decreased by 100%, the self - breeding profit per head decreased by 203.23%, and the externally - purchased breeding profit decreased by 18.69% [3]. Corn - **Prices**: On September 29, the price of the corn 2511 contract was 2,178 yuan, up 0.60% from the previous day; the FOB price at Jinzhou Port was 2,280 yuan, down 1.30%. The basis decreased by 29.66%, and the 11 - 3 spread increased by 22.73% [5]. - **Starch**: The price of the corn starch 2511 contract was 2,480 yuan, up 0.24%. The basis decreased by 6.98%, and the 11 - 3 spread increased by 23.08%. The starch - corn spread decreased by 2.27%, and the Shandong starch profit increased by 60.98% [5]. Meal - **Prices**: The spot price of Jiangsu soybean meal remained unchanged at 2,940 yuan, and the futures price of M2601 also remained unchanged. The basis remained unchanged, and the spot basis quote remained the same. The Brazilian November - shipment - date crushing profit decreased by 70% [8]. - **Spreads**: The soybean meal 01 - 05 spread remained unchanged, the rapeseed meal 01 - 05 spread remained unchanged, the spot oil - meal ratio remained unchanged, and the main - contract oil - meal ratio remained unchanged. The soybean - rapeseed meal spread remained unchanged [8]. Sugar - **Futures**: On September 29, the price of the sugar 2601 contract was 5,478 yuan/ton, down 0.13% from the previous day; the price of the 2605 contract was 5,442 yuan/ton, down 0.22%. The ICE raw sugar main - contract price was 16.35 cents/pound, up 0.37% [10]. - **Spot and Import**: The spot prices in Nanning and Kunming remained unchanged. The Nanning basis increased by 3.68%, and the Kunming basis increased by 3.37%. The quota - in and quota - out import prices of Brazilian sugar increased, and the corresponding spreads with Nanning prices also changed [10]. - **Industry Indicators**: The national cumulative sugar production increased by 12.03%, the cumulative sales increased by 12.87%, the national industrial inventory increased by 5.24%, and the sugar import volume increased by 160% [10]. Cotton - **Futures**: On September 29, the price of the cotton 2605 contract was 13,405 yuan/ton, down 0.96% from the previous day; the price of the 2601 contract was 13,405 yuan/ton, down 0.92%. The ICE US cotton main - contract price was 66.33 cents/pound, up 0.09% [11]. - **Spot and Spreads**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B decreased by 0.27%, and the CC Index: 3128B decreased by 0.28%. The 3128B - 01 and 3128B - 05 spreads increased, and the CC Index: 3128B - FC Index:M: 1% spread decreased by 3.32% [11]. - **Industry Indicators**: The commercial inventory decreased by 20.6%, the industrial inventory decreased by 3.4%, the import volume increased by 40%, the textile industry's inventory decreased year - on - year, and the yarn and fabric inventory days decreased [11]. Eggs - **Prices**: On September 29, the price of the egg 11 - contract was 3,036 yuan/500KG, down 1.30% from the previous day; the price of the 10 - contract was 2,940 yuan/500KG, down 1.38%. The egg - producing area price was 3.47 yuan/jin, down 3.76% [14]. - **Indicators**: The egg - chicken chick price remained unchanged, the culled - chicken price decreased by 0.64%, the egg - feed ratio increased by 7.95%, and the breeding profit increased by 135.13% [14] [15].

Report 1: Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report - **Core View**: Presents the latest values, changes from the previous day, and historical quantiles of various stock index futures spreads on September 29, 2025, including price spreads between different contract months and across different varieties [1]. - **Summary by Category**: - **IF Spreads**: The current - spot spread is 6.24, with a 30.30% historical 1 - year quantile and 2.60% all - time quantile. Different inter - period spreads also show specific values and quantiles, such as the next month - current month spread being - 10.80 [1]. - **IH Spreads**: The current - spot spread is - 160.91, and various inter - period spreads have their own values and quantiles, e.g., the next month - current month spread is - 66.80 [1]. - **IC Spreads**: The current - spot spread is - 208.39, and inter - period spreads like the next month - current month are presented with corresponding values and quantiles [1]. - **IM Spreads**: Similar to the above, it shows current - spot and inter - period spreads with specific values and quantiles [1]. - **Cross - Variety Ratios**: Ratios such as CSI 500/CSI 300, IC/IF, etc., are provided with their latest values, changes, and historical quantiles [1]. Report 2: Treasury Bond Futures Spread Daily Report - **Core View**: Displays the latest values, changes from the previous trading day, and historical quantiles of different types of spreads for treasury bond futures on September 29, 2025, including basis, inter - period spreads, and cross - variety spreads [2]. - **Summary by Category**: - **Basis**: TS basis is 1.4131, TF basis is 1.3377, T basis is 1.2219, and TL basis is 1.2939, each with corresponding changes and historical quantiles [2]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: For different contracts like TS, TF, T, and TL, spreads between the current quarter, next quarter, and far - quarter contracts are given with their values, changes, and historical quantiles [2]. - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: Spreads such as TS - TF, TS - T, etc., are presented with their latest values, changes, and historical quantiles [2]. Report 3: Precious Metals Spot - Futures Daily Report - **Core View**: Compares the closing prices of domestic and foreign precious metals futures, spot prices, and other related indicators on September 29, 2025, including changes and historical quantiles [4]. - **Summary by Category**: - **Domestic Futures**: The AU2512 contract closed at 854.72 yuan/gram on September 25, with a 0.16% increase from August 26. The AG2512 contract closed at 10411 yuan/kilogram, up 2.12% [4]. - **Foreign Futures**: COMEX gold and silver futures show increases, with COMEX gold closing at 3789.80 and COMEX silver at 46.37 dollars/ounce on September 26 [4]. - **Spot Prices**: London gold and silver also increased, with London gold at 3758.78 and London silver at 46.03 dollars/ounce on September 26 [4]. - **Other Indicators**: Differences like gold TD - Shanghai gold and ratios such as COMEX gold/silver are presented, along with changes in yields, exchange rates, inventories, and ETF holdings [4]. Report 4: Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures Daily Report - **Core View**: Analyzes the spot quotes, index changes, futures prices, basis, and fundamental data of the container shipping industry on September 29, 2025 [5]. - **Summary by Category**: - **Spot Quotes**: Shipping rates from Shanghai to Europe for different companies like MAERSK, CMA, etc., show different changes, with CMA having a 3.14% increase [5]. - **Container Shipping Indexes**: Indexes such as SCFIS (European route) and SCFI composite index decreased, with SCFIS (European route) down 12.87% [5]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: Futures contracts like EC2602 and EC2510 (main contract) show price changes, and the basis of the main contract increased by 443.46% [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: Global container shipping capacity supply remained unchanged, while port - related indicators and overseas economic indicators showed various changes, such as the Shanghai port on - time rate decreasing by 43.80% [5].