国投期货研究院 隔夜贵金属继续走强。美国公布3月未季调CP1年率2.4%明显低于预期和前值,月率-0.1%创2020年 5月以来最低水平，数据发布后交易员加大对美联储降息押注，几乎完全定价6月降息。贸易战是近 期市场交易主线,美元美债下跌体现美国信用风险下黄金避险价值,金价连续两日大涨后保持遵 模。 【铜】 隔夜伦铜遥阻在9000美元,沪铜7.44万调整。市场仍担忧美国关税政策对全球宏观及贸易需求的冲 击。临近交割,国内现铜升水转弱,且本周保持去阵。当下供应端仍承受原再生原料紧俏风险,跨 期价差倾向Back结构的稳定。技术上,反弹高点预计在7.55-7.65万,反弹配空。 【铝】 隔夜沪铝震荡。昨日铝锭铝棒社库较周一分别下降3万吨和1.3万吨,铝市库存总量已处于近年同期 低位,表观消费较好,基本面在有色中偏强。短期宏观主导商品走势,特朗普政策反复加大市场波 动,预计近期沪铝将在19000元以上震荡为主,上方测试两万整数关口和年线阻力。 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合履报 2025年04月11日 【原油】 隔夜国际油价再次走弱,布伦特06合约跌3.53%。EIA在4月《短期能源展 ...

安如泰山 信守承诺 国夜期页 USDA调高美玉米总需求,报告中性偏多 USDA玉米供需报告点评 报告评述 北京时间4月11日凌晨,美国农业部发布4月五米供需报告。美国方面调增了出口量1 亿蒲式耳,但国内饲用需求下降2500万蒲,以至于总需求只增加7500万蒲,同理期末库存 方面下降7500万蒲,报告中性偏多。美玉米季节性平均价格保持不变,为每滴式耳4.35美 元。报告发出后,CBOT美玉米主力合约延续上涨趋势。 全球方面,报告中预计2024/25产季全球五米产量为12.1510亿吨,较3月报告增加93 万吨,上一产季产量为12.2933亿吨。其中巴西,阿根廷未发生变化,欧盟调增131万吨, 育尼亚调减20万吨。另外全球期末库存调减至2.8765亿吨，上期值2.8894亿吨。值得注意 的是USDA连续两个月预计中国进口量为800万吨不变,这与国内农业农村部4月平衡表中的 调减进口量为700万吨方向一致,预计中国2025年全年要大幅缩减玉米进口量至720万吨配 额量级左右。 表 1: 2024/25美国新作五米平衡表月度调整(单位:面积-百万英亩,单产-蒲式耳/英亩,其他-百万浦式耳) 加载失败 数据来源:美国农 ...

| | | | VAL SDIC FUTURES | | 2025年04月11日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | | 螺纹 | ななな | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热轧卷板 | ななな | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | ☆☆☆ | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | ☆☆☆ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ★☆★ | | | 锰硅 | ★★☆ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | ★★☆ | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 今日盘面震荡为主。本周螺统供需继续小幅上升，库存延续缓慢去化态势,绝对值仍处于偏低水平。热卷供需均有明显回落, 库存去化态势放缓。高炉整体延续复产态势,铁水产量继续上升。从下游需求看,CPI、PPI或摇显示内需整体依然疲弱,美国 加征关税后制造业及钢材出口面临冲击,放策对冲力度 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★★★ [1] - Methanol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Styrene: ★☆★ [1] - Polypropylene: ★★★ [1] - Plastic: ★★★ [1] - PVC: ★★★ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★☆★ [1] - PX: ☆☆☆ [1] - PTA: ★★★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Heating: ★☆★ [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The market is affected by macro - factors such as Trump's tariff suspension and oil price fluctuations, leading to price rebounds in multiple chemical products, but the fundamentals of different products vary, and the sustainability of price increases is uncertain [4][6][7] Summary by Product Methanol - Macro factors drive a sharp rebound in the methanol market. Coastal olefin plants operate stably, imports are in a destocking trend, but the support for the market is limited. Domestic production is increasing, and the supply - demand balance is expected to loosen [2] Urea - The urea market rebounds following macro - sentiment. The demand gap in Northeast China is narrowing, and the inventory of production enterprises has changed from decreasing to increasing. The supply pressure remains high, and the demand for rice fertilization in the South is expected to peak in late April [3] Polyolefins - Polyolefin futures prices rebound due to Trump's tariff suspension and oil price increases. However, the demand for styrene downstream is expected to decline, and the enthusiasm for propylene raw material procurement is not high. The supply - side pressure is relatively controllable, and the short - term price rebound has limited momentum [4] Styrene - The styrene futures contract closes with a daily limit increase. Raw material prices rise, and the market follows suit. However, in the long - term, the raw material improvement is limited, and there is a lack of continuous upward momentum [6] Polyester - PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, short fiber, and bottle chip prices all rebound due to tariff suspensions and oil price increases. The export of textile raw materials may increase, and the supply of some products is expected to shrink. However, the US policy is still variable [7] Chlor - Alkali - PVC strengthens during the day, with a slight decrease in supply due to planned maintenance. The domestic demand is flat, and the export situation is mixed. The inventory pressure is high, and the fundamentals are weak. Caustic soda fluctuates within a narrow range, with high supply and low procurement enthusiasm [8] Glass and Soda Ash - The glass market is affected by rumors of large - scale destocking in warehouses, and the spot market is in the process of destocking. The cost of some production lines is under pressure, and the impact of tariffs on different products varies. The soda ash production is increasing, and the futures price is under pressure at a high level [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★ [1] - Fuel oil: ★★★ [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★★★ [1] - Asphalt: ★★★ [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ★★★ [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The cost support of crude oil has been realized, but the pressure on inventory remains, and the space for a rebound after an oversold situation should not be over - expected [2] - The fuel oil series futures have risen. The FU cracking is supported, and the supply pressure of LU has increased [3] - The asphalt price follows the rebound of crude oil, and its short - term price trend is affected by crude oil [4] - The domestic LPG market has a cautious attitude, and the disk may be supported. After the stabilization of crude oil, the driving force for the disk rebound is expected to increase [5] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices fluctuated sharply. The S805 contract rose 2.56% during the day. The cost support has been realized, and the low - point target positions in the 2018 trade - war scenario are almost reached. The U.S. EIA crude oil inventory increased by 255,300 barrels per day last week, and there is still inventory pressure after OPEC+ accelerates production increase [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - After crude oil rebounded from a low level, the fuel oil series futures rose. The FU cracking is supported by the tight global heavy - oil resources. The supply pressure of LU has increased, and there is a lack of positive factors to support its cracking [3] Asphalt - After crude oil rebounded from the bottom, BU followed the rebound. The profit of refining diluted asphalt is still poor, and the production willingness is suppressed. The high - frequency shipment volume data of asphalt has increased month - on - month, and the short - term price trend is affected by crude oil [4] LPG - The external quotation has stabilized downward. The domestic market has a cautious purchasing attitude. The disk may be supported under a relatively high discount to the spot. After the stabilization of crude oil, the driving force for the disk rebound is expected to increase [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★☆☆ Indicating a bullish bias, but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Paper Pulp: ★☆★ Suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor operability, advising to wait and see [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆ Representing a short - term balanced state with poor operability, recommending a wait - and - see approach [1] - Apple: Not explicitly rated in a star system in the given content [1] - Logs: Not explicitly rated in a star system in the given content [1] - Natural Rubber: Not explicitly rated in a star system in the given content [1] - 20 -号 Rubber: ☆☆☆ Implying a short - term balanced state with poor operability, suggesting to wait and see [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ☆☆☆ Indicating a short - term balanced state with poor operability, recommending a wait - and - see approach [1] Core Views - The short - term trends of various commodities are affected by multiple factors such as tariff policies, weather, and raw material supply. It is recommended to wait and see for most commodities, and for apples, it is advised to hold existing long positions or wait and see [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton rebounded significantly due to the US suspending tariff collection on most countries for 90 days and reducing reciprocal tariffs to 10%. Domestic cotton spot trading declined. Spinning mills' inventory of pure cotton yarn is not high, and actual transactions are scarce. The short - term trend of Zhengzhou cotton is greatly affected by tariffs, and it is recommended to wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar continued to correct. Crude oil's continuous decline is negative for US sugar. The trading focus of US sugar will shift to Brazil's sugar supply in the medium - and long - term. The high sugar - ethanol ratio in Brazil is negative for sugar. In China, Zhengzhou sugar fluctuates. The trading focus will shift to consumption and imports. Domestic sugar sales are good, and imports have decreased significantly, but the downward trend of US sugar and sufficient domestic supply limit the upside of Zhengzhou sugar. It is recommended to wait and see [3] Apple - The futures price is running strongly. The northwest region is gradually entering the flowering period, and there is a cooling process this weekend, increasing weather risks. However, it is expected that the impact on apple blossoms will be small. It is recommended to hold existing long positions or wait and see [4] 20 -号 Rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Due to the US suspending tariff collection on most countries for 90 days, RU and NRBR both rose sharply. The global natural rubber supply is in an increasing period, and the domestic butadiene rubber device operating rate decreased last week. The domestic tire operating rate continued to decline, and the inventory pressure of finished products remains. The natural rubber inventory in Qingdao increased, while the social inventory of Chinese butadiene rubber decreased. The rubber market is driven by policies, and the fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to take advantage of the rebound and hold cross - variety positions [6] Paper Pulp - Paper pulp rebounded significantly. The import from the US may decrease significantly. As of April 10, 2025, the inventory of mainstream imported pulp samples in China decreased slightly. The import inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period, the pulp liquidity is still relatively loose, the demand is average, and the fundamentals are generally weak. The short - term trend is greatly affected by the macro - environment. It is recommended to wait and see [7] Logs - The futures price is running weakly. Although the ex - factory price has decreased, the arrival volume in April is still expected to be high. The port delivery volume increased slightly, but the total volume is still low, and the demand in the peak season is lower than expected. The port log inventory decreased, but there is still inventory pressure. It is expected that the futures price will run weakly, and it is recommended to wait and see [8]

隔夜贵金属大幅走强。贸易战是近期市场交易主线,美元美债下跌体现美国信用风险下黄金跨险价值。随着 特朗普宣布对大部分经济体暂停实施对等关税政策90天后,市场波动再度放大。美联储3月会议纪委显示美 联储决策者普遍认为经济面临通胀上升和增长放缓的风险,今日重点关注美国OPI数据。美元信用危机和经 济走弱前景下金银比或维持高位。 | 11/11/2 ■投前货 | 贵金属日报 | | --- | --- | | 操作评级 | 2025年04月10日 | | 贵金属 ☆☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | 010-58747784 | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 近期美债市场投资者信心出现较大变化: 10政策摇摆加剧不确定性,特朗普看似缓和的关税调整实则暗藏杀 机:在对多国实施90天关税暂缓的同时,对亚洲大国商品说率源升至125%。故策反复虽带来短期喘息，但企 业面临的长期不确定性丝毫未减。②流动性危机暗流涌动:对冲基金的甚差交易成为地信导火索。随着经 ...

| | | | Millia | 国区别容 | 属巴菲斯日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年04月10日 | | 螺纹 | 女女女 | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热卷 | 女女女 | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | 女女女 | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | 女女女 | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ☆☆☆ | | | 锰硅 | ★★☆ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | ★☆★ | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 今日盘面有所反弹。本周螺纹供需继续小幅上升，库存延续缓慢去化态势，绝对值仍处于偏低水平。热卷供需均有明显回落, 库存去化态势放缓，由于终端需求整体偏弱，高炉复产节奏放缓。从下游行业看,美国加征关税后制造业及钢材出口面临中 击，内需对冲力度有待加码，关注地产销售回暖力度。随着美国 ...

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年04月10日 【原油】 隔夜国际油价剧烈波动,美国对中国关税加征比例上调至125%，中国对美加征关税上调至84%、 欧盟对美加征25%关税一度导致布伦特联破60美元/桶;随后特朗普授权对大部分国家在90天内暂 停超额对等关税仅保留10%甚准对等关税用于谈判,布伦特06合约最终收涨6.65%。贸易战出现极 限反特,经济衰退、油品需求担忧阶段性缓和,我们此前持续提示的WT155-60美元/桶（对应布伦 特60-65美元/橘、SG430-470元/桶）成本支撑作用有所兑现,且2018年贸易战情景指向低点目标 位布伦特57-58美元/桶、WT151-52美元/桶也几近达成。上周美国EIA原油库存超预期增加255.3万 桶/天,OPEC+增产速度加快后后续累摔压力仍存,油价超跌反弹空间暂不过分期待。 【贵金属】 隔夜贵金属大幅走强。贸易战是近期市场交易主线，美元美债下跌体现美国信用风险下黄金缝险价 值。随着特朗普宣布对大部分经济体暂停实施对等关税政策90天后，市场波动再度放大。 美联储3月 会议纪委显示美联储决策者普遍认为经济面临通胀上升和增 ...

| | | | VAR 201C FULUKES | | 2025年04月09日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | | 棉花 | ★☆☆ | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | ★☆★ | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | ☆☆☆ | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ★☆★ | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 木材 | ☆☆☆ | | | 天然橡胶 | ★☆☆ | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 20号胶 | ★★☆ | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ★☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【棉花&棉纱】 今天郑将继续大幅下跌,美国继续对中国加征关税。对中国加征50%关税(2025年累积加征104%关税),贸易冲突仍在加剧,导 致市场情绪悲观，棉价继续下跌。现货成交偏好，棉花现货部分挂单依旧被扫成交:2024/25南疆加采3130/308/杂3.0内部分纷 售基盖在CF05+1100起，缝内自提。纯棉纱纺企库存不高，当 ...